Bob Nightengale: Reds offer of Sabathia for Dunn was rejected

[jmcclain19]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/columnist/nightengale/2005-07-14-majors_x.htm


The Reds asked the Indians for ace C.C. Sabathia in return for outfielder Adam Dunn, which the Indians promptly rejected. ...

More about the Reds



The Reds are trying to act coy, but instead they're coming across as a mass act of confusion. They eventually will shop outfielders Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn, first baseman Sean Casey, third baseman Joe Randa and starter Eric Milton.

There are at least four teams interested in Dunn, including the Astros, Dodgers, Indians and Nationals, but they are wary about his salary rising from $4.6 million to about $7 million in salary arbitration. Kearns will attract considerable interest once he's on the market. But the guy who may draw the most attention could be Randa. The Twins and Padres both want him and are willing to offer top prospects. Ken Griffey Jr., who has no-trade rights, says that it's highly unlikely that he would approve any deal.

[OnBaseMachine]

Thank you Indians! I've always thought of Mark Shapiro as one of game's best GM's, but he really messed up on this.

Sabathia is fat and overrated. Sabathia has posted an ERA under 4.00 only once in his five years career, and his k/9 rate continues to decline.

[flyer85]

I don't buy that at all. Sabathia could easily be replaced and is about to get VERY expensive with the new LT deal he signed.

[Jpup]

I can't see Cleveland turning down that deal. I am glad they did if that is what happenned. DanO is brilliant. :thumbdown

[REDREAD]

The article brings up a point that I have made a long time ago. Teams know that Dunn is going to have an astronomical price tag next year. The Reds waited too long to trade Dunn (if that was their plan). They used up all his cheap years while "rebuilding".
Now he's going to be expensive next year. That outweighs his youth/production. A team can get an impact bat as a FA for 7-8 million/year without giving up a good starting pitcher.

[corkedbat]

I like Randa and the job he's done for us, but if you can get "top" prospects for him, let the bidding war begin.

[corkedbat]

The article brings up a point that I have made a long time ago. Teams know that Dunn is going to have an astronomical price tag next year. The Reds waited too long to trade Dunn (if that was their plan). They used up all his cheap years while "rebuilding".
Now he's going to be expensive next year. That outweighs his youth/production. A team can get an impact bat as a FA for 7-8 million/year without giving up a good starting pitcher.

I don't see $7M as being overly high for Dunn next year and some other team that knows what it's doing might offer him an LTC and succeed where the Reds have failed (alas, I'm beginning to believe that the Reds will never offer Adam longterm)

If the Reds have indeed hesitated too long and can't find someone to offer up a decent package - woe to Dan0 and the front office if they accept a steaming pile of dreck for AD just to move him for payroll considerations. I just don't believe that a half-decent GM couldn't find someone to give them an attractive package of top prospectsfor Adam, at least.

[M2]

I'd move Sabathia for Dunn too, but perhaps Shapiro's figuring he can't survive any downgrade in his rotation while he can get a corner OF elsewhere.

Mind you, I'm guessing if Shapiro said yes, DanO would back away from the deal. He's probably just asking for Sabathia to be provocative.

[Chip R]

He's probably just asking for Sabathia to be provocative.DanO, provocative? That's one word I wouldn't use to describe him.

[M2]

DanO, provocative? That's one word I wouldn't use to describe him.

I get the sense he likes to pretend he is in trade negotiations. He just figures out who the other team isn't moving and asks for that guy. Makes him feel like a tough customer when in reality he's just wasting everyone's time, including his own.

[KronoRed]

Thank goodness for Cleveland :lol:

[flyer85]

Dunn may be getting expensive but Sabathia is going to get paid $25M for 2006-2008.

[Jpup]

Dunn may be getting expensive but Sabathia is going to get paid $25M for 2006-2008.

Precisely why this story probably isn't true.

[REDREAD]

Dunn may be getting expensive but Sabathia is going to get paid $25M for 2006-2008.

True, but perhaps Cleveland wants to horde pitching. I have a feeling that if the roles were somewhat reversed, most Reds fans would not want to trade someone they perceived as a stud starting pitcher for a corner OF (no matter how good that OF was).

[Jpup]

I've got this feeling that Dunn is going to Houston, and very soon. Nothing I've heard, just a feeling. Houston called up Astacio today for some reason. Remember that rumor we heard a couple weeks ago? :help:

[flyer85]

True, but perhaps Cleveland wants to horde pitching. I have a feeling that if the roles were somewhat reversed, most Reds fans would not want to trade someone they perceived as a stud starting pitcher for a corner OF (no matter how good that OF was).While Sabathia may be perceived as a stud starting pitcher his stats indicate he is not. He has had a ton of work at a young age and when you combine that with his questionable mechanics he seems like an excellent candidate for an arm injury.

[flyer85]

I've got this feeling that Dunn is going to Houston, and very soon. Nothing I've heard, just a feeling. Houston called up Astacio today for some reason. Remember that rumor we heard a couple weeks ago? :help:might have more to do with the elbow problems that have flared up again on Pettitte. They can trade someone as easily from the minors as the majors.

[SteelSD]

Dunn straight up for Sabathia? No.

Dunn for Sabathia and a couple other top-notch guys? You have to consider it.

Yes, Sabathia is a big guy. And yes, he's a big guy in kinda the wrong way.

That being said, you simply don't see the kind of non-volatile season-to-season performance numbers from 24 year olds that we've seen from Sabathia. He's better than a lot of folks think he is. Low OPS Against of .700. High OPS Against of .736 (2004) and that's the only time it's been above .716. He'll be 25 on the 21st of this month.

Yes, he's got a lot of Innings on his arm. But not a high volume in any particular season. His K rate isn't down significantly (6.30 per 9 IP versus 6.65 last season). His K/BB rate is up. His HR rate is good and Jacobs isn't a park that really holds down HR numbers very much.

Really not all that expensive either. If he hits every single incentive (unlikely) in his contract, he'll make less than 12 M bucks in the 2007 and 2008. And frankly, if he hits every single performance incentive to get that, he'll be worth it.

IMHO, I think Sabathia is pretty underrated right now and if you're going to get him, getting him signed into his age-prime seasons isn't a bad idea. I think there's a pretty good chance that he'll get even better (his BB rate is dropping, BTW).

Two years ago, when Dunn was at his very lowest point, I suggested moving him for Sabathia and Crisp. That wasn't a bad deal then.

I want more now of course, but I haven't seen anything from Sabathia that would really truly make me want to shy away from him as long as the right extra pieces were included.

<Side note: While looking through the NL OPS Against leaderboard, guess who I found with a .690 OPS Against? Yeah, Cory-freakin'-Lidle of all people. Guy's posted a sub-.700 OPS in a bandbox of a park since the moment he put on a Phillies uniform. Go figure.>

[flyer85]

Sabathia contract calls for 7.75M in 2007 and 8M in 2008

[Jpup]

might have more to do with the elbow problems that have flared up again on Pettitte. They can trade someone as easily from the minors as the majors.

i guess so, but why would they not put Petitte on the DL then? Just makes me nervous when you hear all this talk about trading Adam Dunn as long as DanO is around.

[TheManWith3Legs]

Dunn may be getting expensive but Sabathia is going to get paid $25M for 2006-2008.

Eric Milton is going to get paid $25M for 2005-2007, just to put things in perspective.

[pedro]

I don't believe it.

[KronoRed]

Eric Milton is going to get paid $25M for 2005-2007, just to put things in perspective.

:cry:

Thanks for reminding us ;)

[smith288]

Click on the Suck-o-meter link in my signature if you really want to cry

[Marty and Joe]

If this one is true, I'm also glad Cleveland said no. Even though he doesn't turn 25 until next week, he's not one that I'd hang my hat on as a #1 to build around. He's had 4 seasons now in the majors with close to 200 IP and he hasn't taken the next step forward to true #1 status. His numbers haven't changed much those 4 years...However, his win totals (yes, I know - not a good guage..) and strikeout totals have actually gone done each of those 4 years.

And, given the money he's due....pass.

[penantboundreds]

Everything is K rate for pitchers, but K's don't take anything away from hitters? Some how that is messed up. Somehow a hitter's OPS is the most important thing for them, but the pitcher's OPS against doesnt matter? Someone explain this to me, someone on page 1 posted good stats and helped me figure out why I was the only one who thought Sabathia was good.

Not that I like the trade, I'm just asking how this is possible? Would someone please sort this out for me, how the thing that makes a hitter good, doesn't affect a pitcher or makes up whether he is good or bad? Also Sabathia has low HR numbers, so a low OPS against and low HR numbers, means he is good right? That's why Dunn is good because of his OPS and HR numbers, does someone get what I'm saying, please don't call me crazy!

[wheelonda]

Well put Steel. While I love Dunn and think it would be a mistake to trade him, we have to remember the premium there is for young pitching. We complain constantly that pitching is the reason we don't win so when obtaining a pretty top-notch young arm (same age as Dunn) is a possibility we have to consider it. I agree I don't think I would do this deal straight up, but it bears thinking about. Do I think we would win more games with Sabathia replacing our worst starting pitcher and Kearns replacing Dunn? I'm pretty sure I would think yes.

[pedro]

Everything is K rate for pitchers, but K's don't take anything away from hitters? Some how that is messed up. Somehow a hitter's OPS is the most important thing for them, but the pitcher's OPS against doesnt matter? Someone explain this to me, someone on page 1 posted good stats and helped me figure out why I was the only one who thought Sabathia was good.

Not that I like the trade, I'm just asking how this is possible? Would someone please sort this out for me, how the thing that makes a hitter good, doesn't affect a pitcher or makes up whether he is good or bad? Also Sabathia has low HR numbers, so a low OPS against and low HR numbers, means he is good right? That's why Dunn is good because of his OPS and HR numbers, does someone get what I'm saying, please don't call me crazy!

It does seem weird but here is the argument. Pitchers generally have no control over what happens once the ball is hit into play (with the exception of HR's given up). It has been postulized that there is a standard average of basehits per balls hit into play across all major league pitchers. As such if a pitcher doesn't strike out many guys, the argument is that his other stats will suffer. Now there may be some anomolies, and maybe Sabathia is one, but basically it has been proven that there is a correlation between a pitchers K/9 rate coupled with his K/BB rate and HR/9 that can predict a picthers success.

Conversely, it can not be proven that a high K rate for a batter has a correlation with overall failure in other areas of hitting.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'm not saying Sabathia is a bad pitcher, because he is not. I'm just saying I think he is tad bit overrated..in my opinion, he's not the ace some make him out to be. If Sabathia were offered alone for Dunn, I turn it down. Sabathia plus two top prospects for Dunn? Now that's a different story.

But Sabathia's weight issue does bother me a little bit. I thought I read somewhere that his fastball had dropped a few mph because of it.

[Falls City Beer]

Sabathia's a fine target. But not if Dunn's the price.

And, frankly, Cleveland doesn't have the "close to the majors" pitching prospects to sweeten the deal.

Move on. Davies and Betemit for Dunn and Mercker would get it done for me.

[flyer85]

Well put Steel. While I love Dunn and think it would be a mistake to trade him, we have to remember the premium there is for young pitching. which is why you have to develop your own. :bang:

It is way overpriced in the trade market.

[OnBaseMachine]

To his credit, it looks like Sabathia worked on getting his weight down to a sufficient level.


Sabathia’s weight has been an issue with many Cleveland fans, and it became one for him this winter, too. With guidance from a trainer sent to his Vallejo, Calif., home by the Indians, Sabathia dedicated himself to a strict workout regime and diet and came to training camp in the best shape of his career.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7655248/

[pedro]

Penantboundreds,

here is an article on BP that might help better explain what I was trying to say.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

[cincinnati chili]

Is Bob Nightengale reliable? I can't keep the hacks straight, but IIRC he's floated some nonsense in the past.

Needs or no needs, I doubt Shapiro turned that down.

[DoogMinAmo]

Sabathia's a fine target. But not if Dunn's the price.

And, frankly, Cleveland doesn't have the "close to the majors" pitching prospects to sweeten the deal.

Move on. Davies and Betemit for Dunn and Mercker would get it done for me.

FCB, I don't think that is enough for Dunn and Merker. I would want atleast 2 more prospects from Atlanta to say yes.

[M2]

Dunn straight up for Sabathia? No.

Dunn for Sabathia and a couple other top-notch guys? You have to consider it.

Yes, Sabathia is a big guy. And yes, he's a big guy in kinda the wrong way.

That being said, you simply don't see the kind of non-volatile season-to-season performance numbers from 24 year olds that we've seen from Sabathia. He's better than a lot of folks think he is. Low OPS Against of .700. High OPS Against of .736 (2004) and that's the only time it's been above .716. He'll be 25 on the 21st of this month.

Yes, he's got a lot of Innings on his arm. But not a high volume in any particular season. His K rate isn't down significantly (6.30 per 9 IP versus 6.65 last season). His K/BB rate is up. His HR rate is good and Jacobs isn't a park that really holds down HR numbers very much.

Really not all that expensive either. If he hits every single incentive (unlikely) in his contract, he'll make less than 12 M bucks in the 2007 and 2008. And frankly, if he hits every single performance incentive to get that, he'll be worth it.

IMHO, I think Sabathia is pretty underrated right now and if you're going to get him, getting him signed into his age-prime seasons isn't a bad idea. I think there's a pretty good chance that he'll get even better (his BB rate is dropping, BTW).

Two years ago, when Dunn was at his very lowest point, I suggested moving him for Sabathia and Crisp. That wasn't a bad deal then.

I want more now of course, but I haven't seen anything from Sabathia that would really truly make me want to shy away from him as long as the right extra pieces were included.

<Side note: While looking through the NL OPS Against leaderboard, guess who I found with a .690 OPS Against? Yeah, Cory-freakin'-Lidle of all people. Guy's posted a sub-.700 OPS in a bandbox of a park since the moment he put on a Phillies uniform. Go figure.>

Excellent points. Most pitchers get better in their mid-20s and most pitchers can't even survive in the majors at the ages Sabathia has. The Reds actually have a pitcher who was like Sabathia once upon a time. Had he stepped up at age 26 instead of falling back, he'd have been something special.

What will Sabathia do? I have no earthly idea. I'd have to look into it further before I made an educated guess, but it sounds like the Indians might be betting that he's going to take that step forward. Certainly that confidence has been built into his contract.

[Falls City Beer]

<Side note: While looking through the NL OPS Against leaderboard, guess who I found with a .690 OPS Against? Yeah, Cory-freakin'-Lidle of all people. Guy's posted a sub-.700 OPS in a bandbox of a park since the moment he put on a Phillies uniform. Go figure.>

I'm not really sure why Cory Lidle's OPS Against is so surprising; he did it in full seasons in Oakland in 2001-2002, got hurt in Toronto, stayed hurt/coached wrongly in Cincy last year. Now he's healthy and coached properly and voila. Too bad the Reds lost patience with the wrong guy and got dog crap in return. I wanted the Reds to hold onto the guy. Shows you what they know.

What is surprising is my belief that the Reds would get the best out of a pitcher with Gullett manning the lighter.

[redsandrails]

$7,000,000 for Dunn is nothing. Thome and Sexson, the two guys I'd say are closest to Dunn statistically make 12.5-13+ million per year. Sexson was even coming off an injury, both are also older with less upside, Thome has already plumetted statistically.

The Indians are stupid that they didn't do this. Cliff Lee is doing better than C.C. and they still have Millwood, albeit to a one year deal as well as Westbrooke, who is a serviceable starter as well as Elarton, who ain't bad either. I bet if they found a replacement for C.C. they'd definately do it. I'm talking any old mediocre starter.

The Indians lack a slugger in their lineup. Hafner is a great hitter but he's a .300, 30, 100 kinda guy. Crisp has 15-20 HR power, Sizemore slightly more power, Blake is struggling big time. Juan Gon is a mess, Boone is a mess, Martinez is struggling..... Belliard and Peralta are not power hitters. Dunn is exactly what they need.

[BUTLER REDSFAN]

never been able to figure out iirc---please sum1 explain

[redsandrails]

If I remember correctly.

[BUTLER REDSFAN]

thanks

[KearnsyEars]

so you guys are pretty much sold on the fact that dunn is signed, sealed and delivered, gone outta this town.

[IslandRed]

Penantboundreds,

here is an article on BP that might help better explain what I was trying to say.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

That's been superseded to some extent. Further study, looking at the entirety of pitcher's careers, shows that there is SOME difference between a good pitcher and a bad one in BABIP. It's just (1) not as much as you'd expect and (2) completely masked in short samples by the randomness factor.

Some have positioned the thought that a pitcher can control his extra-base hit rate in addition to the homer rate, which would show up in OPS against.

[Jpup]

so you guys are pretty much sold on the fact that dunn is signed, sealed and delivered, gone outta this town.

i am. :thumbdown

[kyred14]

so you guys are pretty much sold on the fact that dunn is signed, sealed and delivered, gone outta this town.

Pretty much, if a move doesn't make any sense, you know DanO, Allen, and crew will do it.

[Aronchis]

The only thing that needs to be signed sealed and delivered out of town is these so called "rumors". Talk about reaching.

[wheelonda]

The bandbox is still hurting Lidle....his home/away splits:

HOME: 8 GS 3-3 4.94 ERA 1.46 WHIP K/BB 28/10
AWAY: 10 GS 5-3 2.75 ERA 1.05 WHIP K/BB 46/14

Surprisingly though, he's given up 3 homers at home and 4 on the road. Who would you rather have, Lidle or Milton? :bang:

[achilles]

. The Reds actually have a pitcher who was like Sabathia once upon a time. Had he stepped up at age 26 instead of falling back, he'd have been something special.
.

Can I ask which Reds pitcher you are refering to because I can't guess. I believe you, but I can not solve the riddle.

[MrCinatit]

"The Reds are trying to act coy, but instead they're coming across as a mass act of confusion."

in all of this, it is that quote which scares me the most.
heck, we've been going on and on about how it seems like the front office has absolutely no clue about what they are doing - it seems that every article we see now mentioning the front office says the same thing.
even worse, other ballclubs are able to see this. i'm telling you, we are going to get fleeced by another team, one way or another - and it will hurt.
i can almost picture DanO pulling off a trade where he sends Dunn, Pena, Kearns, Casey, Milton, Harang, Wagner, Griff, Randa, FeLo and EE to another team, who somehow only gives Eric Milton right back as a return.

[achilles]

Pretty much, if a move doesn't make any sense, you know DanO, Allen, and crew will do it.

Yes, you are right. It's only a question of when.

[paintmered]

so you guys are pretty much sold on the fact that dunn is signed, sealed and delivered, gone outta this town.


I am not expecting him in a Reds uni next year. :(

[RedsManRick]

What's the big deal with trading away Dunn? He's our #6 hitter. Now if they wanted to trade one of more productive, more talented players like our #2, #3, #4 or #5 guy, we should get worried...

Moron Narron....

[Jpup]

What's the big deal with trading away Dunn? He's our #6 hitter. Now if they wanted to trade one of more productive, more talented players like our #2, #3, #4 or #5 guy, we should get worried...

Moron Narron....

:laugh:

[DoogMinAmo]

Can I ask which Reds pitcher you are refering to because I can't guess. I believe you, but I can not solve the riddle.

My guess would be Tomko.

[pedro]

That's been superseded to some extent. Further study, looking at the entirety of pitcher's careers, shows that there is SOME difference between a good pitcher and a bad one in BABIP. It's just (1) not as much as you'd expect and (2) completely masked in short samples by the randomness factor.

Some have positioned the thought that a pitcher can control his extra-base hit rate in addition to the homer rate, which would show up in OPS against.

That isn't too surprising. Thanks

[Jr's Boy]

I've got this feeling that Dunn is going to Houston, and very soon. Nothing I've heard, just a feeling. Houston called up Astacio today for some reason. Remember that rumor we heard a couple weeks ago? :help:

I'd consider that if they gave up Oswalt and Wheeler,but that aint gonna happen.

[markymark69]

I like Randa and the job he's done for us, but if you can get "top" prospects for him, let the bidding war begin.

Bingo!!! Do it in a heartbeat.

[M2]

Can I ask which Reds pitcher you are refering to because I can't guess. I believe you, but I can not solve the riddle.

Eric Milton.

At age 26 he'd already spent four full seasons in the majors. The previous three seasons he'd posted ERAs of 4.49, 4.86 and 4.32, which, while hardly exciting, were above average in a hitter's park in three of the most prolific offensive years in history. He threw 627 IP in those three seasons. Then his knee acted up and he went backwards. Instead of ages 23-25 being his prelude it turned out to be his peak.

Sabathia started younger and has pitched a little better (not to mention a little less). If he gets better in his mid-20s he'll be a real good pitcher. Had he been in the minors or just cracking into the majors, I'd be fairly confident in thinking he will get better in the next couple of years. Yet I'm not sure if the same dynamic works for the precocious. It's possible they've already been given what others will get around ages 24-27.

[Jpup]

I've got this feeling that Dunn is going to Houston, and very soon. Nothing I've heard, just a feeling. Houston called up Astacio today for some reason. Remember that rumor we heard a couple weeks ago? :help:

nevermind, Astacio is going to pitch one game of the double header and be sent back down. :D

[flyer85]

Eric Milton.

At age 26 he'd already spent four full seasons in the majors. The previous three seasons he'd posted ERAs of 4.49, 4.86 and 4.32, which, while hardly exciting, were above average in a hitter's park in three of the most prolific offensive years in history. He threw 627 IP in those three seasons. Then his knee acted up and he went backwards. Instead of ages 23-25 being his prelude it turned out to be his peak.

Sabathia started younger and has pitched a little better (not to mention a little less). If he gets better in his mid-20s he'll be a real good pitcher. Had he been in the minors or just cracking into the majors, I'd be fairly confident in thinking he will get better in the next couple of years. Yet I'm not sure if the same dynamic works for the precocious. It's possible they've already been given what others will get around ages 24-27.It's the difference between pitching and hitting. Pitching is much more unstable and volatile than hitting is. Dunn is basically a sure thing while Sabathia is still a question mark.

[traderumor]

"The Reds are trying to act coy, but instead they're coming across as a mass act of confusion."

in all of this, it is that quote which scares me the most.
heck, we've been going on and on about how it seems like the front office has absolutely no clue about what they are doing - it seems that every article we see now mentioning the front office says the same thing.
even worse, other ballclubs are able to see this. i'm telling you, we are going to get fleeced by another team, one way or another - and it will hurt.
i can almost picture DanO pulling off a trade where he sends Dunn, Pena, Kearns, Casey, Milton, Harang, Wagner, Griff, Randa, FeLo and EE to another team, who somehow only gives Eric Milton right back as a return.Expect inactivity, that's more likely than fleecing. DanO seems to like watching fruit rot on the tree and then get mad at it and throw it away rather than pruning some underproducing branches so that the rest of the tree may flourish and produce good fruit.

[Jpup]

They've (Houston) inquired about the Reds' Adam Dunn, but that's not going to happen. --Tim Kurkjian ESPN.com 7/15/05

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=2107978

[lilchamp]

Kurkjian also said this: and Chris Burke, a rookie second baseman who has been moved to left field, have really given them hope.

Stat line: G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
2005 53 170 19 39 9 0 1 12 12 36 8

CS BA OBP SLG OPS

5 .229 .285 .300 .585
STAT BREAKDOWN

How is that hope?

[flyer85]

How is that hope?There is only direction to go?

[Redmachine2003]

It is all about positioning. That is why so many trades go done on the 31st. With Dunn the Reds have all the power right now. Because he can be traded in the off season or not traded at all, so if teams want him they got to give the Reds what they want. Teams like the Astros know this and are trying to play coy (not the Reds) through the media saying that they have better options or the Reds are over valueing a 40 plus hr run hitter like they are a dime a dozen.

[pedro]

Kurkjian also said this: and Chris Burke, a rookie second baseman who has been moved to left field, have really given them hope.

Stat line: G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
2005 53 170 19 39 9 0 1 12 12 36 8

CS BA OBP SLG OPS

5 .229 .285 .300 .585
STAT BREAKDOWN

How is that hope?

Because he hist like Tim Kurkjian