Marty: Forget the walks

[sigep529]

Marty was just on XM radio's "Baseball Beat" with Charlie Steiner.

The first topic was Adam Dunn:
Marty says the walks are nice, but he says Dunn is payed to drive in runs. His exact words were "to Hell with the walks." Marty says he wants Dunn to swing the bat with RISP and forget about the walks. He says if Dunn ever consistantly "gets it," ...watch out.

Harang:
Marty really likes him. Says he's become the kind of pitcher that you are surprised if he has a bad outing. Throws a lot of first pitch strikes.

Milton:
"Disaster"

Ortiz:
Marty will be shocked if Ortiz is back next season.

Kearns, Dunn, Pena:
Marty doesn't feel that any of the three will be moved during the season. He says the Reds want ML ready starting pitching, but nobody in a pennant race will be willing to give that up. He feels Wily Mo will be moved in the off season.

DanO's plan:
Marty isn't sure what it is. He says DanO "thinks" he has a plan. He then reeled off all of the questionable moves made before the season.

Randa:
Loves him. Says he'll really help the Padres, and he enjoyed having him with the Reds.

Germano & Chick:
Marty knows nothing about them. He says he never listens to praise coming from his own front office. There's no way the Reds' FO will give a bad review about incoming prospects. However, he says he heard that other organizations had the two ranked highly. He thinks that's a good sign.

Narron & Miley:
The biggest difference between Narron & Miley is that Narron is a DanO guy. Miley was not. He also says Narron does a better job communicating with the players and has done a good job since taking over.

Further trades?:
He says there will probably be a lot of interest in Weathers and Merker. He doesn't want to see either of them go because he thinks it good to have them around the young arms in the pen. He also praised Rich Aurilia and said he could help a lot of teams. He mentioned the Cubs specifically.

[westofyou]

To Hell with the walks."

Marty Brenneman



Never swing at a ball you're fooled on or have trouble hitting.

Ted Williams

I know who I'll listen to.

[Raisor]

Marty was just on XM radio's "Baseball Beat" with Charlie Steiner.

The first topic was Adam Dunn:
Marty says the walks are nice, but he says Dunn is payed to drive in runs. His exact words were "to Hell with the walks." Marty says he wants Dunn to swing the bat with RISP and forget about the walks. He says if Dunn ever consistantly "gets it," ...watch out.

.

The next time Marty complains about one of the Reds pitchers walking a guy with runners on, he should be immediatly reminded about this quote.

[Raisor]

I know who I'll listen to.


a headless frozen Ted Williams still knows more about hitting then Marty ever will.

[traderumor]

DanO's plan:
Marty isn't sure what it is. He says DanO "thinks" he has a plan. He then reeled off all of the questionable moves made before the season.Those very moves that Marty was building up when they were made and all during ST? He was as ga-ga as everyone else about how good the Reds looked "on paper"

[BigREDSfaninKY]

didn't George Foster basically say the same thing about Dunn taking too many walks?

[tp_on_safari]

Telling the truth about Dunn (getting paid for rbi's, not walks) wont go well on this board. Didnt George Foster say basically the same thing shortly ago?


Those two dont know aanything about baseball, Im sure.

[OnBaseMachine]

Dunn gets paid to not make outs and gain as many bases as he can at the plate. He is doing his job as evidenced by the .393 OBP and .586 SLG.

Marty doesn't know what he is talking about.

[westofyou]

Telling the truth about Dunn (getting paid for rbi's, not walks) wont go well on this board. Didnt George Foster say basically the same thing shortly ago?


Those two dont know aanything about baseball, Im sure.

The truth?

Bahahahahhaha

Truth is a reality crafted by ones relationship with the world around them.

[westofyou]

Dear Marty forget the walks.



8000-10000 ab's less than 550 walks

RBI RBI BB AB OBA RC/G
1 Joe Carter 1445 527 8422 -.028 0.17
2 Al Oliver 1326 535 9049 .013 0.91
3 Steve Garvey 1308 479 8835 -.002 0.49
4 Bill Buckner 1208 450 9397 -.009 0.01
5 George Sisler 1175 472 8267 .024 1.60
6 Willie Davis 1053 418 9174 -.016 0.15
7 Marquis Grissom 952 546 8138 -.020 -.35
8 Larry Bowa 525 474 8418 -.032 -1.08


8000-10000 ab's more than 600 walks

RBI RBI BB AB OBA RC/G
1 Babe Ruth 2210 2062 8399 .118 7.86
2 Lou Gehrig 1995 1508 8001 .086 5.59
3 Jimmie Foxx 1921 1452 8134 .070 4.66
4 Mel Ott 1860 1708 9456 .071 3.83
5 Barry Bonds 1843 2302 9098 .107 5.80
6 Al Simmons 1827 615 8761 .019 2.29
7 Reggie Jackson 1702 1375 9864 .030 1.81
8 Tony Perez 1652 925 9778 .012 1.03
9 Ernie Banks 1636 763 9421 .000 0.96
10 Harold Baines 1628 1062 9908 .023 1.00

[BadFundamentals]

the old "not make outs" mantra (sigh)......

If you're going to play LEFT FIELD you're there for your HITTING or because you're going to steal 100 bases. I'll take a "not make outs" mantra from a catcher who does a good job defensively and handling pitching staff or from an infield glove guy or "maybe" CF who takes away would be hits. But if you're going to play LF or 1B you're paid to HIT THE BALL. Forget the walks.

:thumbup: :thumbup: MARTY :thumbup: :thumbup:

[BRM]

I can't believe people still want Adam to "expand his zone" with RISP, thus allowing his average, OBP, and SLG to go south. Barry Bonds must be a horrible LF'er. He walks entirely too much. :rolleyes:

[BadFundamentals]

off top of head, Gehrig/Ruth .340 hitters - top batting averages for their era.
Foxx .320's - high average for era
Simmons, Bonds relatively high batting averages as well....

Those guys got walks yes, but paid for their power and overall HITTING and ability to drive in runs not their walks.

[Raisor]

Telling the truth about Dunn (getting paid for rbi's, not walks) wont go well on this board. Didnt George Foster say basically the same thing shortly ago?


Those two dont know aanything about baseball, Im sure.

Dunn's paid to create runs.

Something that he's really good a.

Here's the list of NL players better then Dunn at Creating Runs so far in 2005:
D. Lee
A. Pujols
M. Cabrera
B. Abreau
A. Ramirez
J. Bay

Not a bad group of players to be compared with, huh?

[Sham]

Truth is a reality crafted by ones relationship with the world around them.

Great quote, is that famous, or can I pretend I authored it?

[traderumor]

Dunn's paid to create runs.

Something that he's really good a.

Here's the list of NL players better then Dunn at Creating Runs so far in 2005:
D. Lee
A. Pujols
M. Cabrera
B. Abreau
A. Ramirez
J. Bay

Not a bad group of players to be compared with, huh?If Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Bonds, Simmons, Jackson, Perez and Banks don't make the point for some, I doubt if that group will impress.

[BRM]

Dunn's paid to create runs.

Something that he's really good a.

Here's the list of NL players better then Dunn at Creating Runs so far in 2005:
D. Lee
A. Pujols
M. Cabrera
B. Abreau
A. Ramirez
J. Bay

Not a bad group of players to be compared with, huh?

Trying the RC argument again. That should stir up some interesting discussion. ;)

[Raisor]

If Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Bonds, Simmons, Jackson, Perez and Banks don't make the point for some, I doubt if that group will impress.


Ruth was just a fat man with skinny girl legs.

-George Steinbrenner, "Seinfeld"

[Raisor]

Trying the RC argument again. That should stir up some interesting discussion. ;)


:mooner:

:evil:

[westofyou]

Banks

Couldn't take a walk, then his BA dropped in the pitching rich 60's

.258/.306/.448/.755 62-71 - 311 BB in 5190 PA's

[Blimpie]

the old "not make outs" mantra (sigh)......

If you're going to play LEFT FIELD you're there for your HITTING or because you're going to steal 100 bases. I'll take a "not make outs" mantra from a catcher who does a good job defensively and handling pitching staff or from an infield glove guy or "maybe" CF who takes away would be hits. But if you're going to play LF or 1B you're paid to HIT THE BALL. Forget the walks.

:thumbup: :thumbup: MARTY :thumbup: :thumbup:Hmmm...BF espousing the nastiness that is drawing a base on balls. This must be a day that ends in "Y"

[KronoRed]

Walks rock, double plays suck.

[Raisor]

Can't...help...my...self....

Batting average assumes: single=double=triple=homerun

For the life of me, I can't figure out why someone would think that using a stat that assumes that is a good idea.

[Raisor]

Walks rock, double plays suck.

you should write a song, daddyo

[RedsBaron]

a headless frozen Ted Williams still knows more about hitting then Marty ever will.
Exactly. Ted Williams was the first guy I thought of when I read Marty's stupid statement.
The Reds have a number of players I like. I can't at the moment think of any non-players associated with the Reds whom I would miss if they left: Lindner, Allen, O'Brien, Narron-add Marty to that list.

[flyer85]

Hmmm...BF espousing the nastiness that is drawing a base on balls. This must be a day that ends in "Y"since we hadn't seen him for awhile I was thinking someone had got him with a silver bullet.

[sigep529]

Here are some questions, that I'm sure have been asked before...

How many fewer walks would Dunn have if he hit higher in the order with better protection behind him? If he hit in the middle of the order instead of the bottom, would other teams be so quick to pitch around him? How many more HR, RBI, 2B, etc... would he have?

[flyer85]

Here are some questions, that I'm sure have been asked before...

How many fewer walks would Dunn have if he hit higher in the order with better protection behind him? there is no one in this lineup that would give Dunn protection.

[Playadlc]

Here are some questions, that I'm sure have been asked before...

How many fewer walks would Dunn have if he hit higher in the order with better protection behind him? If he hit in the middle of the order instead of the bottom, would other teams be so quick to pitch around him? How many more HR, RBI, 2B, etc... would he have?

This is my biggest complaint in batting Dunn so low in the order. All you are doing when you bat him in the 6th or 7th spot is drive his walk total up because, like you said, people are just going to pitch around him. With guys like LaRue and Milton hitting behind him why would you ever pitch to him? If you wanna get Dunn more RBI's move him up in the order. If a moron like me can understand this, why can't the Reds?

Baffling.

[NoColonBoy]

Nobody obviously wants to "break" Dunn--as is, he's a stud.

I think that when people argue he "walks too much"--they're questioning his approach more than the number of walks per se. His selectivity at the plate really doesn't make a whole lot of sense. How can you have a guy who supposedly has such a good eye that he can walk 100+ times a year but who also strikes out (swings and misses) as much as Dunn?

Another selective slugger--before his skills started declining--was Frank Thomas. In each of his first seven full seasons, Thomas walked 100+ times (including the 1994 strike shortened season). He did strike out 112 times in his first full season but then never struck out again more than 88 times in a season. He hit over .300 (and near or over .350) in each of those seasons. His OBA in each season was well over .400.

Yeah, Dunn's a big guy and has a lot of big moving parts which probably leads to more swings and misses--Thomas is a big guy, too. But I don't understand how such a selective guy, looking for his pitch, strikes out with the frequency that he does--it's really an anamoly for a non-free swinger. The frustrating thing is that he doesn't seem to want to change his approach. He reminds me of Shaq at the free throw line.

[westofyou]

Another HOF Manager weighs in.

Weaver's Fourth Law

"Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

I like the home run, but I like the 2-3 run home run best and that means there has to be one or 2 guys on base. And how did those guys get on base in the first place?

Chances are one of them walked.

[Raisor]

More Weaver Goodness:

Announcer: [A fan] from Frederick, Maryland, wants to know why you don't go out and get some more team speed.

Weaver: Team speed, for Chrissake, you get BLEEP [gosh darn]little fleas on the bases getting picked off trying to steal, getting thrown out, taking runs away from you. You get them big BLEEP who can hit the BLEEP ball out of the BLEEP ballpark and you can't make any [gosh darn] mistakes.

[OnBaseMachine]

the old "not make outs" mantra (sigh)......

If you're going to play LEFT FIELD you're there for your HITTING or because you're going to steal 100 bases. I'll take a "not make outs" mantra from a catcher who does a good job defensively and handling pitching staff or from an infield glove guy or "maybe" CF who takes away would be hits. But if you're going to play LF or 1B you're paid to HIT THE BALL. Forget the walks.

:thumbup: :thumbup: MARTY :thumbup: :thumbup:

:rolleyes:

Dunn .979 OPS. He's HITTING THE BALL just fine. Top 10 in numerous offensive categories.

Did Dunn beat up your sister or something?

oh and

:thumbdown :thumbdown MARTY :thumbdown :thumbdown

[Raisor]

By the way, for everyone so hung up on batting average with RISP, the difference between Dunn's .222 BA with RISP and a .300 BA w/RISP is (drum roll please) 5.6 hits.

All this stuff over 6 hits?

ooookay..

[Johnny Footstool]

I wish Dunn would hit more singles... :rolleyes:


BTW - Dunn's career numbers batting 4th:


AB BA HR RBI OBP SLG OPS
554 .287 37 87 .402 .560 .962

Monsterous.

Amazing what happens when you have protection in the lineup.

[Blimpie]

Nobody obviously wants to "break" Dunn--as is, he's a stud.

I think that when people argue he "walks too much"--they're questioning his approach more than the number of walks per se. His selectivity at the plate really doesn't make a whole lot of sense. How can you have a guy who supposedly has such a good eye that he can walk 100+ times a year but who also strikes out (swings and misses) as much as Dunn?

Another selective slugger--before his skills started declining--was Frank Thomas. In each of his first seven full seasons, Thomas walked 100+ times (including the 1994 strike shortened season). He did strike out 112 times in his first full season but then never struck out again more than 88 times in a season. He hit over .300 (and near or over .350) in each of those seasons. His OBA in each season was well over .400.

Yeah, Dunn's a big guy and has a lot of big moving parts which probably leads to more swings and misses--Thomas is a big guy, too. But I don't understand how such a selective guy, looking for his pitch, strikes out with the frequency that he does--it's really an anamoly for a non-free swinger. The frustrating thing is that he doesn't seem to want to change his approach. He reminds me of Shaq at the free throw line.While not a perfect analogy, I like the Dunn comparison to Thomas alot better than, oh---say---Dave Kingman.

[traderumor]

By the way, for everyone so hung up on batting average with RISP, the difference between Dunn's .222 BA with RISP and a .300 BA w/RISP is (drum roll please) 5.6 hits.

All this stuff over 6 hits?

ooookay..But what is his OBP with RISP? That would tell me more, even if RISP is a somewhat iffy stat.

[Raisor]

But what is his OBP with RISP? That would tell me more, even if RISP is a somewhat iffy stat.


.467

(and that's the whole point tr...)

[OldRightHander]

But what is his OBP with RISP? That would tell me more, even if RISP is a somewhat iffy stat.

It is somewhat iffy. The batter is in scoring position as well.

[Puffy]

.467

(and that's the whole point tr...)

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/916060/raisor.jpg

[Raisor]

:pimp:

[Crash Davis]

didn't George Foster basically say the same thing about Dunn taking too many walks?


Telling the truth about Dunn (getting paid for rbi's, not walks) wont go well on this board. Didnt George Foster say basically the same thing shortly ago?


Those two dont know aanything about baseball, Im sure.

Well, from God's lips to George Foster's & Marty's ears...

This is completely asinine. Are all players over 6'4" only paid to drive in runs? What is it about Adam Dunn in particular that he's only paid for his RBIs? I'd like to see the language in that contract.

Adam Dunn, like all other baseball players, is paid to play good baseball. He does that better than anybody currently employed by the Cincinnati Reds.

[Outshined_One]

Further trades?:
He also praised Rich Aurilia and said he could help a lot of teams. He mentioned the Cubs specifically.

:laugh:

Oh wait a second, he was a Dusty favorite back in SF...

:bang: :cry:

[Puffy]

I agree with Marty. If only we had a stat which took out all what I like to call the "soft walks" then we could truly decipher whether or not Dunn was a run producer. Dunn needs to turn all those "soft walks" into hits so that he is hitting a billion gagillion with runners in scoring position or else he sux.

gO rEDz!

[pedro]

the old "not make outs" mantra (sigh)......

If you're going to play LEFT FIELD you're there for your HITTING or because you're going to steal 100 bases. I'll take a "not make outs" mantra from a catcher who does a good job defensively and handling pitching staff or from an infield glove guy or "maybe" CF who takes away would be hits. But if you're going to play LF or 1B you're paid to HIT THE BALL. Forget the walks.

:thumbup: :thumbup: MARTY :thumbup: :thumbup:

Oh, the old "I have no idea what I'm talking about but my lips are still moving argument"

Dude, I saw they revolted againt you at mlb.com last light. Running out of places to spout your nonsense? That must hurt.

Why would a guy that hits 40-50 HR's need to steal 100 bases to be valuable? Your pedantic resistance against reality is hysterical.

And for all of you who think that we're just worshiping Dunn and think he has no flaws, save it. We all know that he has room for improvement.

[Raisor]

gO rEDz!

another 50-cents for the retirement fund...

[traderumor]

.467

(and that's the whole point tr...)I like playing your straight man ;)

Here's the breakdown according to mlb.com
runners on OBP/AVG
1st and 3rd .588/.333
2nd .586/.200
RISP .457/.222
1st .438/.281
3rd .429/.200
2nd and 3rd .417/.222
Loaded .364/.125
Bases Empty .336/.251
1st and 2nd .310/.231

C'mon folks, I know its a hard mindset to break, but batting average tells you very little, and if you start talking about situations, you are going to be sorely misled. Obviously, there is a huge difference between the runs produced with a .364 OBP with the bases loaded than if you show a graphic saying he is "hitting" just .125 with the bases loaded.

The scary part is, I don't think DanO and the primary decision makers with the Reds understand the difference :help:

[westofyou]

Your pedantic resistance against reality is hysterical.

That's by far my favorite Smiths tune.

[pedro]

That's by far my favorite Smiths tune.

I'm listening to "Panic on the threads of Redszone" right now.

[LoganBuck]

But discounting BA means that there will be no justification for keeping Casey around other than ratio of Hugs Given/Bottoms Slapped.

[registerthis]

Why would a guy that hits 40-50 HR's need to steal 100 bases to be valuable? Your pedantic resistance against reality is hysterical.
I think BF meant either/or, not both at the same time.

Carry on.

[RedsBaron]

I wish Dunn would hit more singles... :rolleyes:


BTW - Dunn's career numbers batting 4th:


AB BA HR RBI OBP SLG OPS
554 .287 37 87 .402 .560 .962

Monsterous.

Amazing what happens when you have protection in the lineup.
Remember that Sean Casey has had protection in the lineup all season, which makes his relative lack of production even harder to take. A competent manager would have been batting Dunn 2nd, 3rd or 4th all season.

[NJReds]

Dude, I saw they revolted againt you at mlb.com last light. Running out of places to spout your nonsense? That must hurt.


Nah...he's got quite a following at mlb.com...(aka the Church of Soft Walks).

These are the guys who don't enjoy a Reds victory if Dunn plays the hero. It's bittersweet to them, and for the life of me I can't understand why.

[Chip R]

the old "not make outs" mantra (sigh)......

If you're going to play LEFT FIELD you're there for your HITTING or because you're going to steal 100 bases. I'll take a "not make outs" mantra from a catcher who does a good job defensively and handling pitching staff or from an infield glove guy or "maybe" CF who takes away would be hits. But if you're going to play LF or 1B you're paid to HIT THE BALL. Forget the walks.

:thumbup: :thumbup: MARTY :thumbup: :thumbup:You and others seem to want Dunn to chase balls out of the strike zone in order to possibly drive more runs in. But if he does that he will strike out more than he does now. That's not an opinion, that's a fact. You criticize him for striking out so much but you want him to change his batting approach so he strikes out more often and will lower his batting average. Tell me how that makes sense.

[pedro]

I think BF meant either/or, not both at the same time.

Carry on.

yeah, but he can't accept that Dunn's HR's are hits, so he's just being irrational.

[westofyou]

I'm listening to "Panic on the threads of Redszone" right now.

Panic on the streets of Dayton
Panic on the streets of Mariemont
I wonder to myself
Could life ever be sane again ?
The Race side-streets that you slip down
I wonder to myself
Hopes may rise on Mt Adams
But Honey Pie, you're not safe here
So you run down
To the safety of the town
But there's Panic on the streets of Pete Rose Way
Dublin, Beraea, and the West Side
I wonder to myself

Burn down the Press Box
Hang the blessed Play by Play guy
Because the analysis that they constantly use
IT SAYS NOTHING TO ME ABOUT TODAYS GAME
Hang the blessed Play by Play guy
Because the analysis that they constantly use

On the Race Street side-streets that you slip down
Or provincial towns you jog 'round
Hang the Play by Play Guy, Hang the Play by Play Guy,
Hang the Play by Play Guy,
Hang the Play by Play Guy,
Hang the Play by Play Guy,
Hang the Play by Play Guy,
Hang the Play by Play Guy,
Hang the Play by Play Guy,

[registerthis]

The Frank Thomas comparison might be a better one, if only because everyone seems to make an assumption that if Dunn would strikeout less, it would mean that his RBI or RC would decrease. But Frank Thomas shows us that it doesn't necessraily have to be that way.

Do I fault Dunn for taking walks? Absolutely not, that's a stupid comment to make. Telling someone to take less walks is akin to telling them to swing at more pitches outside of the strike zone. Like I said, it's stupid.

But what is debateable is whether Dunn can cut down his strikeouts while not decreasing the number of runs he creates. While it's true that we pay the big man to not make an out, the same could be said for Jason Romano. He, too, gets paid to not make an out (or, rather, DID). But Dunn is expected to do more than simply not make outs--he's expected to produce runs. His power dictates that.

People seem very hesitant to suggest that Dunn should work on lowering his strikeouts. But the fear that a cut down in strikeouts would also mean a cutback in production is simply a theory--and in fact it may well be selling Dunn short to suggest so. Am I happy with Dunn's production right now? Absolutely--you'd be a fool not to be. But I also believe that he has room for improvement, and the astronomical strikeout rate would be right up there on the list of things to work on.

What wouldn't be, however, is walks. If they want to give him a base, let them. Bat him third, in front of kearns and Junior, and that won't be a problem.

[pedro]

nice work woy.

[NoColonBoy]

And for all of you who think that we're just worshiping Dunn and think he has no flaws, save it. We all know that he has room for improvement.

The unfortunate thing is that every Reds' flaws are overemphasized and overanalyzed when the team is in last place. We all go looking for what's wrong with Dunn or Wily Mo or whomever--which doesn't make a whole lot of sense when the offense is as potent (leading the league in runs scored which, last time I checked, was a pretty important stat) as this one is.

We all know it's the pitching and defense. And the defense wouldn't even be under the microscope if the pitching weren't so bad. Sure, we'd like Dunn to strike out a little less, we'd like Casey to hit with some more power, but it's not like the offense is broken.

[Puffy]

another 50-cents for the retirement fund...

ahem.

I believe yours was "gO rEDZ!!1!"

I clearly modified it and made it better and more mine with the last lower case "z" and only one exclamation point, thereby not infringing of your copyright and thusly not owing you 50 cent.

[NoColonBoy]

People seem very hesitant to suggest that Dunn should work on lowering his strikeouts. But the fear that a cut down in strikeouts would also mean a cutback in production is simply a theory--and in fact it may well be selling Dunn short to suggest so. Am I happy with Dunn's production right now? Absolutely--you'd be a fool not to be. But I also believe that he has room for improvement, and the astronomical strikeout rate would be right up there on the list of things to work on.

Great post. That's exactly the point. The dude's so strong that I think that Dunn would hit 10 more homers a year by accident if he shortened his swing with two strikes. I don't KNOW that for a fact--it's simply a theory.

[pedro]

Nah...he's got quite a following at mlb.com...(aka the Church of Soft Walks).

These are the guys who don't enjoy a Reds victory if Dunn plays the hero. It's bittersweet to them, and for the life of me I can't understand why.

they weren't having it last night.

[pedro]

People seem very hesitant to suggest that Dunn should work on lowering his strikeouts. But the fear that a cut down in strikeouts would also mean a cutback in production is simply a theory--and in fact it may well be selling Dunn short to suggest so. Am I happy with Dunn's production right now? Absolutely--you'd be a fool not to be. But I also believe that he has room for improvement, and the astronomical strikeout rate would be right up there on the list of things to work on.

.

I would like to see him learn to foul off or slap to left field some of those called third strikes that he currently can't handle on the lower outside corner of the plate. I have no problem with him taking those pitches with less than two strikes, but I'm sure he knows they're strikes as he's got such great plate judgement that I think he can learn to alter his approach with 2 strikes. And if he does, watch out.

[Johnny Footstool]

But the fear that a cut down in strikeouts would also mean a cutback in production is simply a theory--and in fact it may well be selling Dunn short to suggest so.

But it's a theory that was tested by Mr. Bob Boone in 2003, or as I like to call it "The Dark Times." It resulted in Dunn's worst year in the majors.

[NoColonBoy]

But it's a theory that was tested by Mr. Bob Boone in 2003, or as I like to call it "The Dark Times." It resulted in Dunn's worst year in the majors.

That wasn't the theory in 2003. The theory in 2003 was that Dunn had to pull everything. That DID change his approach and messed with his head. Plus, the guy is strong enough to hit it out anywhere in the park--he doesn't need to pull everything to hit 40+ homers.

[gm]

Vote for what pedro said

Dunn and Pena have no 2 strike approach. OTOH, Casey only has a 2 strike approach

Chambliss can't be responsible for the Red's hitters poor fundamentals, his '98 Yankees knew how to situationally make contact

[Puffy]

Vote for what pedro said


http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-9/825505/Vote-for-Pedro-t-shirt.jpg

[registerthis]

But it's a theory that was tested by Mr. Bob Boone in 2003, or as I like to call it "The Dark Times." It resulted in Dunn's worst year in the majors.
In addition to what NCB said, in 2003 Dunn was in his first full year and was still maturing as a hitter. Hopefully he's matured enough now to understand that "take less strikes" doesn't equate to "swing wildly." If Dunn *honestly* couldn't cut down his K's without also sacrificing production, then I would say leave him alone. But at this point, it's all conjecture, and if opposing pitchers are able to get two strikes on him, some brief viewing of the video will show you where to pitch him to get him out. If he could--as Pedro mentioned--learn to only foul off even *some* of those two strike pitches that are currently going for strike three, and force the pitcher to throw another pitch, I believe that alone could increase his production, while also serving to cut down on the Ks.

[OnBaseMachine]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-9/825505/Vote-for-Pedro-t-shirt.jpg

That movie is flippin' sweet!

http://www.threadpit.com/detail_pages/154d.jpg

[tp_on_safari]

Told you the Dunn board, I meant reds live board wouldt like it. Marty and G. Foster know enough to gice an honest opinion. I know the expets on this board know more than Marty and Foster, but I agree with Marty. I know this a Dunn fan board, but I thought I was allowed to give my opinion.

[westofyou]

Told you the Dunn board, I meant reds live board wouldt like it. Marty and G. Foster know enough to gice an honest opinion. I know the expets on this board know more than Marty and Foster, but I agree with Marty. I know this a Dunn fan board, but I thought I was allowed to give my opinion.

Actually it's a "baseball" board so many of us go the extra mile to get opinions from guys that maybe didn't always cash a check with Mr Red on it.

Hence the Earl Weaver reference earlier.

If ya want we can dig up some Branch Rickey for you too.... he also is in the real part of the HOF... oh and the Reds cut him 100 years ago.

[Chip R]

Told you the Dunn board, I meant reds live board wouldt like it. Marty and G. Foster know enough to gice an honest opinion. I know the expets on this board know more than Marty and Foster, but I agree with Marty. I know this a Dunn fan board, but I thought I was allowed to give my opinion.Funny, I don't see any of your posts being edited or deleted. If you can't take people disagreeing with your opinions, perhaps you may want to find somewhere else to post where everyone agrees with you.

[Raisor]

I know this a Dunn fan board, but I thought I was allowed to give my opinion.



You are giving your opinion. We in turn are giving our opinion on your opinion.

If you want someplace where you're allowed to say anything you want without anyone disagreeing with you, the internet probably isn't for you.

[Sham]

I like cheese.

[westofyou]

I like cheese.

Lately I've been digging the hard white cheeses myself, good cheese is good ya know?

[Sham]

Lately I've been digging the hard white cheeses myself, good cheese is good ya know?

Absolutely, get a nice piece of Swiss on a grilled chichen sandwich, and BAM!

[registerthis]

I like pie.

[OnBaseMachine]

I like pie.

Me too. Especially with some Shannon Elizabeth in it.

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B00005LKHW.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

[BoydsOfSummer]

Pie-Oh-My R.I.P

[KronoRed]

I like pie.
Pie is the best.

[BadFundamentals]

When Dunn is locked in - getting his HRs or when not hitting ball out of park ripping it for a double or when not getting pitched to taking his walk then yes he can definitely be a force in lineup.

The difference between most of your opinions of him and the minority (and much less vocal) on this board including me is that it seems you all believe Dunn locked in is Dunn night in night out. That I just don't see. I see the locked in Dunn as the exception. The exception that typically lasts either a few games or a week or two only to be replaced by the much less productive Dunn.

The other point is the big picture. You all seem to see him as the type of guy to "build around". That again, I just don't see. I see him as a complementary type player. I see him as a luxury player type that only the larger budget teams will be able to afford to carry.

[KittyDuran]

The Parable of the Three
Reds Fans and Adam Dunn
[with sincere apologies to the famed parable “The Blind Men and the Elephant”]

It was three fans of the Reds
To learning much inclined,
Who went to see Adam Dunn
Though all of them thru love were truly blind,
That each by observation
Might satisfy the mind.

The First Fan approached Adam Dunn
And, happening to touch so brave
Against his broad and sturdy side,
At once began to rave:
"God bless me, but Adam Dunn
Is very like the Babe!"

The Second, feeling the wooden bat,
Cried, "Ho! what have we here
So very round and smooth and large?
To me 'tis very clear
This wonder of Adam Dunn
Is very like Rob Deer!"

Finally the Third approached Dunn
And, happening to take
The large outfielder’s face within his hands,
Thus boldly up he spake:
"I see," said he, "Adam Dunn’s
OPS must really rake!"

And so these Fans of the Reds
Disputed loud and long,
Each in his own opinion
Exceeding stiff and strong.
Though each was partly in the right,
They all were in the wrong!

:devil:

[NJReds]

they weren't having it last night.

That's because most of them disappear after Dunn's good games.

[Raisor]

When Dunn is locked in - getting his HRs or when not hitting ball out of park ripping it for a double or when not getting pitched to taking his walk then yes he can definitely be a force in lineup.

The difference between most of your opinions of him and the minority (and much less vocal) on this board including me is that it seems you all believe Dunn locked in is Dunn night in night out. That I just don't see. I see the locked in Dunn as the exception. The exception that typically lasts either a few games or a week or two only to be replaced by the much less productive Dunn.



Well, we can actually test this theory of your's, by looking at his monthly totals since the beginning of last year.

The positional average OPS for LF is currently .797. By the end of the season, it should be around .815 or so (right about where it has been the last few years).

In the ten full months (he got 1 PA in Oct last year that I'm not including, for obvious reasons), he has been below average for a LF in exactly two months: May 04:.717 and Sept 04: .783

In that time, he has OPSed +/= 1.000 5 times (including the current month), +.900 one more time, and +.850 and additional two more times.

That's being "locked in" by nearly any definition that really matters.

[BadFundamentals]

I don't agree with score methodology on that one inventor of the drinking bird. Dunn gets so many walks his OPS tends to always stay relatively high. To measure his "locked inness" I would contend it would have to be either just SLG or a combo of B.A. and SLG.

[Raisor]

I don't agree with score methodology on that one inventor of the drinking bird. Dunn gets so many walks his OPS tends to always stay relatively high. To measure his "locked inness" I would contend it would have to be either just SLG or a combo of B.A. and SLG.


SLG%,

In that time, his SLG has been below positional average twice, those same two months listed above. May 04: .372, Sept 04: .444 (-6 points below current positional average).

He's been over 700 once, +600 4 times, +500 twice, +450 once.

I'm not going down the BA road. You've admitted time after time that you know that OBP and SLG correlate much higher to runs scored then BA, yet you continue to try to go back to that well.

[BadFundamentals]

Additionally, unless you were going to just compare him to the left fielders who make 8-10 million+/year I wouldn't say your comparison addresses the question of how productive he is night in night out or his productivity relative to other high paid outfielders.

[deltachi8]

I too was once a slave to the batting average argument, the strike out argument, the walks to much argument. Then I opened my mind and read, and thought and read some more and discovered it was time to realize I was wrong.

I made the ROb Deer argument right here on Redszone. I was wrong.

Adam Dunn is plain and simple one of the top 5 (or 3) young hitters in the game. Arguing that a 25 year old "walks too much" is just plain foolish. As he matures, his batting average may improve, and thats fine as long as it does not mean the prodcution of more outs.

There is value to the reds however with the batting average obsession by so many. Because Dunn will most likely have a relatively lower batting average, and bating average is "valued" in arbitration, contract discussion, etc, Dunn's pay will most likely be kept below his actual value.

[Ravenlord]

why the hell did i open this thread?:bang:

[KronoRed]

why the hell did i open this thread?:bang:

Like frustration? :D

[BadFundamentals]

why the hell did i open this thread?:bang:
because the guy has "it" when it comes to generating interest......

As has been said by others much more eloquently, because Dunn does things to such extremes he ends up being a vehicle for discussions about what people think is important in baseball. Do you care about Ks? care about fielding? fundamentals? how much do you care? walks?...hitting with RISP? etc.. etc... you name it he does it to the extreme.

[TC81190]

The second BF posted in this thread, it went down the pooper.


Just sayin'.

[BadFundamentals]

The second BF posted in this thread, it went down the pooper.


Just sayin'.
your bordering on a personal attack there mr. 90210. Let's keep this civil. Now get out there and have a good time. Get er Dunn..... :thumbup:

[Raisor]

by the way, if you do want to completely ignore Onbase Percentage and just use BA+SLG (though, for the life of me I can't figure out why you'd want to)

Here's how Dunn fares against the average major league LFer..

Average: 727
Dunn: 836

[Cyclone792]

What's in here?

Oh, nevermind.

:deadhorse

[BadFundamentals]

Cyclone, I'll ban myself for 24 hours if you tell me who the girl is in your avatar?

[OnBaseMachine]

Cyclone, I'll ban myself for 24 hours if you tell me who the girl is in your avatar?

Don't give in Cyclone. Hold out for a week. :)

[flyer85]

Marty probably raising a big stink

[Matt700wlw]

Those very moves that Marty was building up when they were made and all during ST? He was as ga-ga as everyone else about how good the Reds looked "on paper"

So was I. So were a lot of people.

We got fooled :doh:

[Cyclone792]

Cyclone, I'll ban myself for 24 hours if you tell me who the girl is in your avatar?

Trade deadline is Sunday. It's time for negotiating! How long are you willing to ban yourself if I tell you her name?! And we'll do some role playing here ...

I'm Billy Beane. You're Dan O'Brien!

;)

[Raisor]

So was I. So were a lot of people.

We got fooled :doh:


Who you callin "we" kemosabe?

[pedro]

by the way, if you do want to completely ignore Onbase Percentage and just use BA+SLG (though, for the life of me I can't figure out why you'd want to)

Here's how Dunn fares against the average major league LFer..

Average: 727
Dunn: 836

yeah but hiis sluuging is inflated by hr's so you should take those out too. and tehdoubles, becaus ehe wasn't trying to hit those, he was trying to hit hr's whih, by the way, don't count. plus subtract all of sean casey's dp's plays because thos are duinn's faolt too, b/c he's juest trying to hit hr's like dunn.

[flyer85]

Trade deadline is Sunday. It's time for negotiating! How long are you willing to ban yourself if I tell you her name?! And we'll do some role playing here ...

I'm Billy Beane. You're Dan O'Brien!

;)Naked pitctures ought to be good for a month.

[Reds Nd2]

I don't agree with score methodology on that one inventor of the drinking bird. Dunn gets so many walks his OPS tends to always stay relatively high.

I guess Dunn being 3rd in the major leagues for HR's has nothing to do with his OPS being relatively high? And I'm sure you'd disagree with any methodology that disproves your point.

On the other hand, I keep forgetting that Raisor invented the "drinking bird". I believe he won a Nobel Prize for that. The dude rocks.

Just sayin'...

[flyer85]

On the other hand, I keep forgetting that Raisor invented the "drinking bird".was it that or just a candid photo :D

[Raisor]

yeah but hiis sluuging is inflated by hr's so you should take those out too. and tehdoubles, becaus ehe wasn't trying to hit those, he was trying to hit hr's whih, by the way, don't count. plus subtract all of sean casey's dp's plays because thos are duinn's faolt too, b/c he's juest trying to hit hr's like dunn.


Dunn needs to hit less homeruns and hit more singles because Pete Rose hit singles and if singles are good enough for Pete Rose they should be good enough for anyone, except for George Foster who is the only person that should hit home runs instead of singles because I liked George back in the days when the Reds would win instead of lose because Pete hit single except for Johnny who is better then Pete who only hit singles.

[Raisor]

I keep forgetting that Raisor invented the "drinking bird". I believe he won a Nobel Prize for that. The dude rocks.




Enough about me, tell me how YOU feel about me.

[Matt700wlw]

Who you callin "we" kemosabe?

Those who were part of the "a lot of other people"

[Raisor]

Those who were part of the "a lot of other people"


Wanna bet we go through the exact same thing this off season?

[Reds Nd2]

was it that or just a candid photo :D

I don't know. You tell me. :)

http://www.aahom.org/img/store/drinkBird40x40.jpg

[flyer85]

I don't know. You tell me. :)

http://www.aahom.org/img/store/drinkBird40x40.jpgDamn ... this is hard. I didn't know there would be a test.

[Reds Nd2]

Enough about me, tell me how YOU feel about me.

Well I like you and all, but we'll have to fight over the McGriddles girl.

[KronoRed]

What would you hit Raisor?

...wait..do I not wanna know? :help:

[Raisor]

BF,

Just something I'm curious about. You've been on record saying you want the Reds to dump Dunn and keep Casey.

Recently it seems like you're big kick about Dunn is that he won't be worth the money he's going to be paid, yet you don't seem to have any problem with what Casey's making (since you want to keep him around).

This perplexes me.

[big boy]

Suggesting that Dunn is as good as a bunch of Hall of Famers (Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, etc.) simply because they all take walks does not seem to be accurate. Would anyone really take Dunn over Manny Ramirez simply because he gets more walks? Perhaps Marty's point is to not watch borderline pitches with runners on and drive in runs instead.

[Ron Madden]

Suggesting that Dunn is as good as a bunch of Hall of Famers (Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, etc.) simply because they all take walks does not seem to be accurate. Would anyone really take Dunn over Manny Ramirez simply because he gets more walks? Perhaps Marty's point is to not watch borderline pitches with runners on and drive in runs instead.

Well Here I go again, I'll get neg reps for sure but here goes..

The blame for "The Dumbing Down" of Reds fans over the past few years has a whole lot to do with what they hear everyday on WLW radio. Marty is in the Hall Of Fame. Tracy tried to play the game.

A whole lot of self importance and ego between those two. Why should they do any research or go out of thier way to inform listeners?

Every sportstalk host on WLW just parrots what they hear from Marty and Tracy after all is said we end up with a fanbase led by guys like Badfundamentals and DennyRedV. :(

All jokes aside I find this very sad.

[big boy]

I love Dunn...all I'm saying is that he isn't as good as Manny Ramirez because he takes more walks and he certainly does not belong in Ruth company.

[MWM]

Wow. Who said Dunn was better than Manny Ramirez? Seriously, show us the quote where someone claims that to be the case.

[Blimpie]

I love Dunn...all I'm saying is that he isn't as good as Manny Ramirez because he takes more walks and he certainly does not belong in Ruth company.Just a thought...but have you ever glanced at the current batting lineups of both the Reds and the Sox? How many plate appearances has Ramirez enjoyed with a "Larue" or a "Valentin" waiting patiently in the on-deck circle?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Suggesting that Dunn is as good as a bunch of Hall of Famers (Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, etc.) simply because they all take walks does not seem to be accurate. Would anyone really take Dunn over Manny Ramirez simply because he gets more walks? Perhaps Marty's point is to not watch borderline pitches with runners on and drive in runs instead.

Actually, I'd take Dunn over Manny.

Dunn: 25 years, 8 months
Ramirez: 33 years, 2 months

Dunn 2005 salary: 4.6 million
Ramirez 2005 salary: 22 million

Dunn 2005 OPS: .975
Ramirez 2005 OPS: .943

[big boy]

Wow. Who said Dunn was better than Manny Ramirez? Seriously, show us the quote where someone claims that to be the case.

Please read more closely. I did not make the claim that somebody said Dunn was better. I am merely saying that Manny takes fewer walks but drives in more runs. I don't think anyone believes Dunn is better than Manny. Therefore, walks aren't everything.

[Cyclone792]

Please read more closely. I did not make the claim that somebody said Dunn was better. I am merely saying that Manny takes fewer walks but drives in more runs. I don't think anyone believes Dunn is better than Manny. Therefore, walks aren't everything.

Boston had a team OBP in 2004 of .360. It's not hard to drive in a boatload of runs when guys are on base all over the place. In fact, it's because of walks to everybody else in the lineup that Manny is able to drive in such a ridiculous amount of runs.

Walks may not be everything, but they're a lot of something good when it comes to production.

[Raisor]

I''m having a hard time making the leap from:



I don't think anyone believes Dunn is better than Manny.

...to:


Therefore, walks aren't everything.


:confused:

[big boy]

Here is the point: runners on first and second, Dunner takes a walk or whiffs...Manny hits a pitch off the plate that goes to the wall in left center which plates both runners. A walk may have been nice but a double and 2 rbi is better. Walks aren't everything.

[Raisor]

Here is the point: runners on first and second, Dunner takes a walk or whiffs...Manny hits a pitch off the plate that goes to the wall in left center which plates both runners. A walk may have been nice but a double and 2 rbi is better. Walks aren't everything.

you do know Manny walks a ton too, right?

[Puffy]

Here is the point: runners on first and second, Dunner takes a walk or whiffs...Manny hits a pitch off the plate that goes to the wall in left center which plates both runners. A walk may have been nice but a double and 2 rbi is better. Walks aren't everything.

Ugh.

Thats a great theory - problem is there are only so many people alive that can take a pitcher's pitch (i.e., a bad pitch) and drive it with authority. Vlad is one. Soriano is another. Manny is a third. Beyond that the list gets mighty shallow.

The fact of the matter is that 99 percent of MLB players need to get their pitch (or something close to it) to consistently drive it. Asking players to expand their zones is in reality asking them to make outs.

[westofyou]

Walks aren't everything.

No they aren't but walks are the residue of a good hitter waiting for his pitch, walks are the team wearing down the other pitcher, walks are the tool that enable a hitter to play for his pitch in the a zone that his power is generated from. Walks are men on base for the pitcher to worry about.

Walks aren't the cake nor the icing... just the sugar or the flour that make up the cake or icing.

They aren't useless and they aren't a gift. They are earned and historically players that have large walk totals also are players who accomplish great things with the bat, be it power or what not.

[big boy]

you do know Manny walks a ton too, right?

Hmmm...Manny has never walked over 100 times in a season.

If all Dunn does is bang out 40 dongs and drives in 100 for the next 15 years, he is going to the Hall. I am not anti-Dunn.

[traderumor]

Suggesting that Dunn is as good as a bunch of Hall of Famers (Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, etc.) simply because they all take walks does not seem to be accurate. Would anyone really take Dunn over Manny Ramirez simply because he gets more walks? Perhaps Marty's point is to not watch borderline pitches with runners on and drive in runs instead.I betcha the hitters on the BRM never watched borderline pitches with runners on and drove those runs in. Pete, Griff, Joe, Tony, Johnny, Foster, Davey, etc. never let a called third strike go by. If they did, it was a bad call :devil:

[big boy]

No they aren't but walks are the residue of a good hitter waiting for his pitch

Agreed...isn't that what Marty was saying? Walks are nice but in some cases, look to drive in a runner.

[westofyou]

Agreed...isn't that what Marty was saying? Walks are nice but in some cases, look to drive in a runner.

Dunn hit .131 on pitches out of the zone in 2004.

Looks to me like he's not a bad ball hitter.

Sounds to me like Marty wants Dunn to try and hit a bad pitch for a hit.

Pretty easy for him to say it, pretty hard for Dunn to do it.

[traderumor]

Dunn hit .131 on pitches out of the zone in 2004.

Looks to me like he's not a bad ball hitter.

Sounds to me like Marty wants Dunn to try and hit a bad pitch for a hit.

Pretty easy for him to say it, pretty hard for Dunn to do it.Marty makes fun of guys who will swing at anything, yet that seems to be what he would like to see more of from Dunn. Personally, I don't, and I don't think his coaches do either.

[big boy]

Marty makes fun of guys who will swing at anything, yet that seems to be what he would like to see more of from Dunn. Personally, I don't, and I don't think his coaches do either.

I think Marty would like Dunner to take his game to the next level which is driving in 130+. I don't see why that is bad.

[westofyou]

I think Marty would like Dunner to take his game to the next level which is driving in 130+. I don't see why that is bad.

That's good of Marty to want that, seeing how it's only been done in Reds history 5 times, also it's only been done once since 1974.

Fosters 149 was roughly 19% of the Reds RBI's in 1977, Bench's 148 in 1970 was 20% of the teams RBI's.

Both won MVP's that year

Dunn's 102 a mere 14%.

If wishes were horses we'd all be riding.

[Chip R]

I think Marty would like Dunner to take his game to the next level which is driving in 130+. I don't see why that is bad.Perhaps if Dunn hit a little higher up in the order he would do just that. He might get a few more pitches to hit if he had Jr. hitting behind him rather than Aurilia.

[traderumor]

I think Marty would like Dunner to take his game to the next level which is driving in 130+. I don't see why that is bad.What does that mean? Taking it to the next level? Is there a switch he turns on to do this? Did you see the stats I posted with his OBP with runners on base? Does he have to attain a .500 OBP with guys on base and OPS at 1.100 before folks will be happy?

I'll have to join the crowd on this one. Adam Dunn is not doing anything but helping the Reds score runs on a consistent basis, at a rate of one of the top 5 offensive performers in the NL. I suggest we look elsewhere for our criticisms on a last place ballclub.

[Puffy]

What does that mean? Taking it to the next level? Is there a switch he turns on to do this? Did you see the stats I posted with his OBP with runners on base? Does he have to attain a .500 OBP with guys on base and OPS at 1.100 before folks will be happy?

I'll have to join the crowd on this one. Adam Dunn is not doing anything but helping the Reds score runs on a consistent basis, at a rate of one of the top 5 offensive performers in the NL. I suggest we look elsewhere for our criticisms on a last place ballclub.

Yup. And just to be clear, not one of us is arguing that we wouldn't be happier if Dunn did get 125 rbi's a year. But he is producing greater than any current Red and if he does what Marty claims to want he will be less productive (he is not a good bad ball hitter), thats the point we are all making.

[big boy]

And just to be clear, not one of us is arguing that we wouldn't be happier if Dunn did get 125 rbi's a year.

That sums it up for me and prolly Marty. Asking a guy to improve his game is not criticism.

[KronoRed]

That sums it up for me and prolly Marty. Asking a guy to improve his game is not criticism.

But constantly criticizing him and saying nothing of the good things he does is IMO over the line.

[traderumor]

That sums it up for me and prolly Marty. Asking a guy to improve his game is not criticism.I can't speak for Marty anymore than you can, but what I hear from him is dissatisfaction with Dunn's performance wit h the nebulous RISP, or to get a sac fly and all that garbage, which is criticism. "That's not gettin' it done" is criticism. It is also criticism to ask a guy who is performing at a high level, and has been for all but one year of his young career to "take it to the next level" because that implies that his game is not satisfactory. Yet, if Dunn did not improve his numbers one iota from here on out, he would be looking at HOF credentials. And these RBI totals folks are wishing for, quit hitting him sixth "because he strikes out too much and his batting average is too low" and he'll get your desired RBI totals.

[Johnny Footstool]

Here's an article from Feb. 2003. Dunn states that he believes he takes too many pitches and wants to be more aggressive at the plate. Surprisingly, Bob Boone seems to have the right idea -- "You can tell him to expand his strike zone a little bit and hit the ball out of the park if he knows it's a really good pitch to hit, but that's not his style. It's not the way he hits."

I guess I was wrong about 2003. Boone didn't seem to care about Dunn's strikeouts -- at least that's how he comes across in this article.

http://www.cincypost.com/2003/02/20/reds02-20-2003.html


Not close to Dunn
Red's best days ahead after slump in second half of 2002

By Tony Jackson
Post staff reporter

SARASOTA, Fla. -- Texans are big on hyperbole. Adam Dunn is a Texan.
"That might have been the worst slump in the history of the game," the Reds outfielder said Wednesday, describing what the second half of last season was like for him. "No one has ever stunk for that long, for that many games in a row."

Appropriately enough, the Texas-sized slump began, well, in Texas. Dunn said he started feeling miserable at the plate during a four-game series in Houston that began two days after the All-Star Game. The Reds' lone representative in the 2002 mid-summer classic grew up in nearby Porter, meaning a series in Houston always brings a host of personal distractions.

Before he knew it, the player who had taken the big leagues by storm just a year earlier now stood in the batters' box without a clue.

"I felt terrible at the plate," Dunn said. "I was thinking entirely too much. I was thinking so much that the things I was doing right, I thought I was doing wrong. I've never been the type of hitter that thinks a lot at the plate, and thinking is what got me in trouble.

"So this year, no more thinking. This year, I'm going to have fun and play like I'm 12."

At the All-Star break, Dunn was hitting .300 with 17 homers and 54 RBI. He batted .190 with nine homers and 17 RBI the rest of the way.

Contrary to Dunn's exaggerations, there have been plenty of players in the 160 or so years since Abner Doubleday or Alexander Cartwright invented the game who have struggled more mightily than Dunn did last year. He still finished the season with 26 home runs, and although he set a club record with 170 strikeouts, he also walked 128 times.

Not a bad season if you are, say, Wilton Guerrero. But for Dunn, the guy this team may be built around for years to come, it was sheer misery.

"That was the first time in any sport that I have ever run into anything like that," Dunn said. "Everybody goes through slumps, but that was a slump on steroids."

And, as slumps have a way of doing, it began to feed on itself.

"Mechanically, he really got out of whack," Reds manager Bob Boone said. "He just couldn't seem to get out of it. When you're struggling, it's always a matter of thinking too much, but it's impossible not to do that. Ask any golfer."

Except that in his case it wasn't just Dunn who was overanalyzing every aspect of his swing. He was getting advice from almost every teammate and almost every coach. Most of it was coming from first-year hitting coach Jim Lefebvre, an energetic, upbeat sort who never gave up in a frantic effort to help Dunn find a groove. Lefebvre and all his high-tech gadgetry were sent packing after the season, replaced this year by the more reserved Tom Robson.

"I think (Lefebvre) was just so anxious to help me that he ended up putting too many thoughts in my head," Dunn said. "I think he's got some great ideas. He had a lot of gadgets, and I guess for some players, they worked fine."

As of Wednesday, Dunn had done little more than exchange pleasantries with Robson. Unless Dunn starts the spring as discombobulated as he was in the fall, the two probably won't have much to discuss for a while, which is fine with both of them. For now, Dunn believes the nightmare is behind him, at least until the next slump comes along. And when it does, he should be able to manage this one better than he managed the last one.

"I feel great at the plate right now, really comfortable and confident," said Dunn. "I know I haven't seen a lot of pitching, but I feel like I'm back to normal."

One aspect of his hitting Dunn would like to change this year is his selectivity at the plate. There are two schools of thought on why he draws so many walks -- he finished third in the major leagues last season behind San Francisco's Barry Bonds and Pittsburgh's Brian Giles. Dunn believes it's because he takes too many pitches and that he needs to be more aggressive. Boone believes it's because Dunn is so dangerous as a hitter that opposing teams are hesitant to pitch to him.

"It's the same way with Bonds," Boone said. "Number one, pitchers are pretty afraid to throw in there. If it was me up there hitting, they would throw it right down the pipe. But they're not going to do that when you get a good hitter up there, and Adam has tremendous discipline and a tremendous eye."

That plate discipline and all those walks are the reason Dunn fashioned a .400 on-base percentage. They also are the reason Boone, a notorious outside-the-box thinker, is toying with the idea of Dunn batting leadoff. Boone may try Dunn in that spot in spring-training games because the Reds don't have a prototype leadoff hitter.

Even if Dunn stays in the middle of the lineup, which is probably where he belongs, Boone isn't looking for a different approach. Different results, maybe, but for now Boone sees no reason for Dunn to be more aggressive.

"I want Adam to be the best hitter he can be, and if he's being selective, it means he's not chasing bad pitches," Boone said. "You can tell him to expand his strike zone a little bit and hit the ball out of the park if he knows it's a really good pitch to hit, but that's not his style. It's not the way he hits."

Boone's philosophy is valid, but that doesn't mean he should share it with Dunn. Dunn isn't interested in philosophy these days, particularly when it comes to hitting. For now, all Dunn is interested in is having fun playing baseball, something he said he suddenly remembers how to do again.

Publication Date: 02-20-2003

[BRM]

And these RBI totals folks are wishing for, quit hitting him sixth "because he strikes out too much and his batting average is too low" and he'll get your desired RBI totals.

This is what it really boils down to. Not many guys are going to have 130+ RBIs from the 6 hole. Bat him 3rd for 150+ games and he'll drive in a ton of runs, even with a .250 batting average.

[big boy]

It is also criticism to ask a guy who is performing at a high level, and has been for all but one year of his young career to "take it to the next level" because that implies that his game is not satisfactory.

Shouldn't all athletes be trying to improve? Asking for improvement is criticism?

[traderumor]

Shouldn't all athletes be trying to improve? Asking for improvement is criticism?I was wondering how long it would take. Of course, no one is suggesting that he shouldn't. But he's one of the top hitters in the game and improvement is a given with talents like he has. Most of the suggestions for improvement focus on changing approach, which would be a huge mistake (see 2003). I would say AD will be a better hitter just from exposure and experience going with enormous talent to make a scary hitter that I hope is in our lineup for years to come. All the other improvements are folks trying to pound his round peg of a game into the square holes they have drilled for him. Gladly, he seems to be giving lip service and listening to the right folks, like his hitting coach.

[Puffy]

Shouldn't all athletes be trying to improve? Asking for improvement is criticism?

He's 25.

Nuff said.

[KearnsyEars]

I know who I'll listen to.



great post.

[KronoRed]

He's 25.

Nuff said.

Also an old hitting coach yelling in his ear to change resulted in him slumping for a year and a half :bang:

[KearnsyEars]

Leave Dunn alone, wind him up, watch him hit 45-50 HR for the next decade.....

[Ron Madden]

I could be wrong but it seems to me that Marty and many others are hell bent on turning Adam Dunn into Sean Casey and at the same time want Casey to be more like Dunn. :confused: :confused: :confused:

[Hollcat]

Dunn hit .131 on pitches out of the zone in 2004.

Looks to me like he's not a bad ball hitter.

Sounds to me like Marty wants Dunn to try and hit a bad pitch for a hit.

Pretty easy for him to say it, pretty hard for Dunn to do it.
I love those type of stats. :thumbup:
WOY Can you post how many times Dunn has struck out looking/swinging? with runners on and bases empty?
and also where can I get info about the stats program you subscribe to?

[Bobcat J]

I think its funny that when a pitcher for the Reds gives up a walk that turns into a run, Marty gives the ol' "Walks will kill you" speech. Yet, Dunn walks too much.

[NJReds]

Last night I was listening to the Mets game on my way home.

They were talking about the Mets poor OBA as a team and gave this stat:
Over the last 36 games (didn't hear why they picked this stretch of games) when the Mets drew 3 or more walks they were 11-0. When they drew 2 or fewer walks, they were 4-11.

The announcers went on to discuss the importance of being patient on the plate, making the pitcher work the count and getting on base, noting that the Mets were one of the worst teams in the league in OBA.

Funny, but the whole discussion made a lot of sense...

[Sheltonmassacre]

His walks wouldnt be such a big deal if the people behind him would drive him in.

[OldRightHander]

I've stayed pretty quiet through this thread, but I have a couple thoughts. I have listened to the last two games on the mlb audio archive the next day and Scully has really said some good things about some of the Reds hitters. In the first inning the other night he was flat out praising Lopez for his OBP and the homers he has hit. He said the same thing about Dunn. I don't remember him mentioning either player's BA. Also, I saw part of Monday night's game on tv before I went to bed, and Welsh and whoever was filling in for Grande had some positive things to say about Dunn drawing that walk in the first inning. Welsh mentioned Dunn getting on base a lot. I think Chris gets it more than some other announcers, and Scully seems to get it, really destroying the image I had of all old baseball people being old school in their thinking.

I have another thought regarding walks and I have a very imperfect analogy to illustrate it. I play softball and I'll be the first to admit that I'm not a very good hitter. I'm good for a hit a game at the most, mostly singles, and on rare occasions I'll have a multiple hit game or an extra base hit. Because I am not a good hitter, I know which pitches I am most likely to hit well and which ones I won't hit well. My approach is to look for the first thing that is where I want it and when I see it I'm swinging. If I don't see what I want, I'm not swinging, even if it's a strike. Now when I'm at two strikes, I'm going after anything that could be a strike. Because of my approach, I have been walked a few times this year. The other night I had an AB with a runner at third. I really wanted to drive that runner in. I had every intention of getting the rbi, but the pitcher was struggling with his control and he couldn't manage to throw me a strike. Knowing my limitations as a hitter, I didn't go after those pitches because I just would have gotten out anyway. I ended up being walked and the next guy up, who can hit anything for a line drive, hit one of those bad pitches up the gap for a double that scored the guy on third and sent me over to third. I managed to score on a sac fly by the next guy. Did I want to walk? No, but I didn't have much choice with what the pitcher was throwing. Now I know that there is a big difference between my softball league and MLB, but about the only difference I see between Dunn's approach and mine is the amount of damage he does when he does hit the ball. Sometimes I will get my pitch and still ground out, but when he gets one where he wants it, any runner is in scoring position. Also, if I walk, it's just because the pitcher is struggling, not that I'm actually putting any fear into the pitcher, but Dunn does put that fear into pitchers in MLB. He makes pitchers change their approach when he is up there to the extent that they are hesitant to throw anything over the middle of the plate. They nibble at the corners, up and in and down and away, and try to get him chasing something just off the zone. He knows his limitations on those bad pitches and he is laying off them more. Remember that bad funk he was in back in 2003 when he would strike out on those bad balls away? Now that he is letting them go and drawing walks, he's now being criticized for walking too much. You can't have it both ways folks. How often a player walks is so dependent on how he is pitched to, but there are a few people on here who seem to think that the hitter can somehow control how often the opposing pitcher is going to throw strikes. That's preposterous.

[deltachi8]

Well said ORH...

[gonelong]

...there are a few people on here who seem to think that the hitter can somehow control how often the opposing pitcher is going to throw strikes. That's preposterous.

Not to mention its generally the same group that wants a guy to "expand his zone" to drive a runner in that wail and gnash teeth if a guy makes and out chasing that pitch. All of the sudden that pitch was "at his eyes" or a "foot outside".

GL

[pedro]

Well said ORH...

I'll second that.

[registerthis]

So, open question...

If DUnn were to cut, I dunno...50 K's a year off of his total, how many do you think:

-Would be hits
-Would be outs
-Would be walks

Just curious what numbers people might assign to this.

[Chip R]

Not to mention its generally the same group that wants a guy to "expand his zone" to drive a runner in that wail and gnash teeth if a guy makes and out chasing that pitch. All of the sudden that pitch was "at his eyes" or a "foot outside".

GL
Exactly.

[Johnny Footstool]

If DUnn were to cut, I dunno...50 K's a year off of his total, how many do you think:

-Would be hits: 8 (mostly singles)
-Would be outs: 40
-Would be walks: 2

[RedsBaron]

Not to mention its generally the same group that wants a guy to "expand his zone" to drive a runner in that wail and gnash teeth if a guy makes and out chasing that pitch. All of the sudden that pitch was "at his eyes" or a "foot outside".

GL
Ted Williams wrote about that very thing. Once pitchers realize you will chase a pitch two inches outside the strikezone, they start throwing you pitches four inches outside the strikezone. Exnd your strikezone some more, and pitchers will further adjust. The batter winds up chasing pitches he cannot do anything with.

[westofyou]

Ted Williams wrote about that very thing. Once pitchers realize you will chase a pitch two inches outside the strikezone, they start throwing you pitches four inches outside the strikezone. Exnd your strikezone some more, and pitchers will further adjust. The batter winds up chasing pitches he cannot do anything with.

Yeah... but he was one of the Redszone 10 and never sat in a plane next to Pete and Johnny. :rolleyes:

[ochre]

Welsh mentioned Dunn getting on base a lot. I think Chris gets it more than some other announcers, and Scully seems to get it, really destroying the image I had of all old baseball people being old school in their thinking.

I am not so sure that Welch gets it. I think he is trying to, but he reverts to what he 'knows' in moments of stress (when he hasn't had time to prepare his 'view' beforehand). It seems his head is telling him one thing, while his heart is holding on to all that he has held dear for all these years.

[OldRightHander]

I am not so sure that Welch gets it. I think he is trying to, but he reverts to what he 'knows' in moments of stress (when he hasn't had time to prepare his 'view' beforehand). It seems his head is telling him one thing, while his heart is holding on to all that he has held dear for all these years.

I see what you mean. That's why I said that he gets it more than other announcers, which maybe isn't saying much for the other announcers. I have heard him say some pretty sensible things lately, and it take that as evidence that maybe he's either shifting his opinions or he's at least willing to take a look at some differing points of view. He's not there yet, but perhaps he's heading in the right direction.