Casey rumor from Baseball Prospectus (Will Carroll) [Archive] - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

RedsManRick

07-26-2005, 05:13 PM

Posted Tuesday, July 26, 2:10 p.m.: The Mets have been reluctant to give up two of their best prospects to get Alfonso Soriano, knowing they'll need to fill some gaps in the off-season. That knowledge let the Reds stick their nose into a possible deal. According to two sources with knowledge of the discussions, the Reds would send Sean Casey and his contract to the Mets along with Soriano. The Rangers would then give the Reds one or two B level prospects such as Juan Dominguez or John Hudgins.

BRM

07-26-2005, 05:15 PM

Casey and his contract to the Mets? Please let this happen.

Puffy

07-26-2005, 05:16 PM

What a shocker - the Rangers offer prospects and DanO needs to get involved. Pretty soon we are gonna be the Cincinnati Red Rangers.

Red Leader

07-26-2005, 05:16 PM

That would be oh so sweet.

Red Leader

07-26-2005, 05:17 PM

What a shocker - the Rangers offer prospects and DanO needs to get involved. Pretty soon we are gonna be the Cincinnati Red Rangers.

Better than Red Rockets. :laugh:

CTA513

07-26-2005, 05:20 PM

What a shocker - the Rangers offer prospects and DanO needs to get involved. Pretty soon we are gonna be the Cincinnati Red Rangers.

It should be Cincinnati Power Rangers, Im sure they would attact more children to the games if that was there name. ;)

ochre

07-26-2005, 05:20 PM

What a shocker - the Rangers offer prospects and DanO needs to get involved. Pretty soon we are gonna be the Cincinnati Red Rangers.
http://www.robot-japan.com/images/ToyW-PR-NYC/Wild-Force-Red.JPG

Jesus Freak

07-26-2005, 05:22 PM

So who do the Rangers get in this deal?

They give up Soriano, and some B prospects, mets get Soriano and Casey, Reds get B prospects.

CTA513

07-26-2005, 05:24 PM

So who do the Rangers get in this deal?

They give up Soriano, and some B prospects, mets get Soriano and Casey, Reds get B prospects.

I saw this on the Mets board, but I dont know if its true or not.

Rangers Receive: Cameron, Milledge, Petite
Reds Receive: Hudgins, Dominguez
Mets Recieve: Soriano, Casey

larryboy

07-26-2005, 05:26 PM

Mets will be stupid to trade Milledge. I'd rather get Heilman

Jesus Freak

07-26-2005, 05:31 PM

I saw this on the Mets board, but I dont know if its true or not.

Rangers Receive: Cameron, Milledge, Petite
Reds Receive: Hudgins, Dominguez
Mets Recieve: Soriano, Casey

Mets get ripped off in terms of 2 of their best prospects. Casey & Cameron's salary are a wash.

RedRoser

07-26-2005, 05:32 PM

If there's any truth to this rumor, Casey was sure NOT "made not available" for long! :confused:

Jesus Freak

07-26-2005, 05:34 PM

The Rangers need an outfielder w/ Nix out for the year. Cameron would be a good fit for them.

Roy Tucker

07-26-2005, 05:35 PM

So who do the Rangers get in this deal?

They give up Soriano, and some B prospects, mets get Soriano and Casey, Reds get B prospects.
Lots of scenarios...

http://dallasbaseballhome.com/news/newbergreport.php?p=869&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1#more869

RedlegJake

07-26-2005, 06:07 PM

Please get it done. I'd gladly take 2 B prospects for Casey.

flyer85

07-26-2005, 06:23 PM

sounds good to me. I still have a hard time seeing the Mets give up Milledge, although historically the big market prospects always seem to be overrated.

Bonzo

07-26-2005, 06:43 PM

This allows us to dump Casey's contract and move Dunn to first, freeing up space in the outfield. Fine by me. :thumbup:

RedRoser

07-26-2005, 06:57 PM

Do the Rangers have an infielder to take Soriano's spot, or do we have to throw in Rich Aurilia? We'd really hate to add Aurilia to the deal, but if we have to in order to make it fly. . .well, I guess we would. :evil:

RedsManRick

07-26-2005, 07:00 PM

I believe they have Esteban German in AA or AAA. He was supposed to take over the A's job a year or two ago. I imagine he would come up. Though certainly I see no reason why we can't ship Aurilia that way to make it happen.

RedRoser

07-26-2005, 07:03 PM

Looks like they could use another major league player/utility infielder/former All-Star. All I noticed on their depth chart as far as the infield was Mark DeRosa.
Maybe RA will take a look at this situation and say, "I could help that club."
:D :evil: :laugh:

RedRoser

07-26-2005, 07:10 PM

On second look, IF the Rangers don't want Cameron's salary, let's keep him and send the Rangers a cheaper alternative---Wily Mo Pena. Then Dunn takes over at first, and the outfield sports the more athletic Cameron, Griffey, and Kearns. Not too shabby! We don't shed Casey's salary, but we do solve the OF log jam by opening up 1B for Dunn. ??? :eek: :eek: :eek:

IslandRed

07-26-2005, 07:55 PM

The Rangers would probably call up Ian Kinsler if they didn't get a middle infielder back in that deal.

cincyinco

07-26-2005, 07:58 PM

The Rangers would probably call up Ian Kinsler if they didn't get a middle infielder back in that deal.

Was just about to post the same thing..

YOU ARE CORRECT SIR!!! :mooner:

Is Ramon Nivar still with the rangers? I know he used to play a mean 2b before they tried him in CF. But I think he's fallen off the map. Also, they have that Drew Meyer kid.. But Kinsler is their go to guy. Gotta be.

RedRoser

07-26-2005, 07:59 PM

They don't need to go to the trouble. GIVE them Rich as part of the deal. Or just give them Rich, PERIOD. :beerme:

cincyinco

07-26-2005, 08:14 PM

They don't need to go to the trouble. GIVE them Rich as part of the deal. Or just give them Rich, PERIOD. :beerme:

Sounds good, but we better be getting a Thomas Diamond back for him ;) :mooner:

Gallen5862

07-26-2005, 08:16 PM

TOP TEN PROSPECTS from Baseball America
1. Thomas Diamond, rhp
2. John Danks, lhp
3. Joaquin Arias, ss
4. Ian Kinsler, ss
5. Chris Young, rhp
6. John Hudgins, rhp
7. Juan Dominguez, rhp
8. Adrian Gonzalez, 1b
9. Josh Rupe, rhp
10. Vincent Sinisi, of
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Ian Kinsler
Best Power Hitter Jason Botts
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Vincent Sinisi
Fastest Baserunner Ramon Nivar
Best Athlete Joaquin Arias
Best Fastball Thomas Diamond
Best Curveball John Danks
Best Slider Travis Hughes
Best Changeup Juan Dominguez
Best Control Erik Thompson
Best Defensive Catcher Mike Nickeas
Best Defensive Infielder Joaquin Arias
Best Infield Arm Joaquin Arias
Best Defensive Outfielder Adam Bourassa
Best Outfield Arm Juan Senresio

realreds1

07-26-2005, 08:21 PM

This would also be oh so sweet to reunite Casey and Graves.

I can imagine fans trickling into Shea hearing the strains of "Reunited and it feels so good..."

LvJ

07-26-2005, 08:33 PM

omg
omg
omg
omg
omg
omg
omg
omg

:)

markymark69

07-26-2005, 08:37 PM

This allows us to dump Casey's contract and move Dunn to first, freeing up space in the outfield. Fine by me. :thumbup:

Boe,
I agree with you. It may not be exactly who we want for Casey. But getting his contract and double plays out of town would be great. One thing does trouble me however if Casey is traded. Who will Narron put the three spot in the batting order?

RedRoser

07-26-2005, 08:40 PM

This would also be oh so sweet to reunite Casey and Graves.

I can imagine fans trickling into Shea hearing the strains of "Reunited and it feels so good..."

I was a fool to ever leave your side
Me minus you's been such a lonely guy.
The breakup we had has made me lonesome and sad
I realize I need you 'cause my game's gone bad, hey, hey.

I spent the ev'ning talkin' to Dan'O.
I did some beggin' so he'd let me go.
The Mayor leaving? Well shucks, but it could save you big bucks.
I know that Danny needs me 'cause well, he still "sucks", hey, hey.

Reunited and it feels so good. . .
Reunited; we're mis-understood.
There is one perfect fit,
And The Big Apple is it.
We'd both be so excited if we're reunited, hey, hey.

:evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

---'Roser

Thanks for the idea, realreds1!

Reunited and it feels so good.
Reunited; we're mis-understood. . .

deltachi8

07-26-2005, 09:19 PM

buckeyenut

07-26-2005, 09:22 PM

Man, this would just make my day.

I would do it as is, but if I am dano, I offer to tweak it just a bit to help TEX out a little more.

Rangers Receive: Cameron, Milledge, Petit, Aurillia
Reds Receive: Hudgins, Dominguez, Gonzalez
Mets Recieve: Soriano, Casey

The add of Adrian Gonzalez is a crap shoot with possible upside for us, and with Teix blocking his way, doesn't hurt Texas one bit. Or one more tweak, since they still have a playoff shot.

Rangers Receive: Cameron, Milledge, Weathers or Mercker, Aurillia
Reds Receive: Hudgins, Dominguez, Gonzalez, Petit
Mets Recieve: Soriano, Casey

MartyFan

07-26-2005, 09:33 PM

buckeyenut

07-26-2005, 11:01 PM

Okay, so you guys are wetting yourself because of a deal that could be in the works by a GM that many of you insist is little more than a hat rack...the tempo seems to have changed...but the deal sure hasn't been dunn yet...hold onto your enthusiasm until it does.

I hold DanO's trade talents in higher regard than most, but if he pulls this deal off, I will personally give him till the end of his current contract (next season) before I judge him worthy of removal. This deal would be that good for the team, especially if it involved Casey and Aurillia for three or four prospects of the ilk mentioned or better.

fielder's choice

07-27-2005, 08:37 AM

Anything we get for Casey is a bonus. The thought of a Casey-less lineup makes me tingly inside.

Picture this (after Aurilia goes)

Freel 2B
Lopez SS
Griffey Jr CF
Kearns RF
Dunn 1B
Pena LF
Encarnacion 3B
Larue/Valentin C

cumberlandreds

07-27-2005, 08:53 AM

Roy Tucker

07-27-2005, 08:56 AM

More from Will...

Posted Tuesday, July 26, 9:27 p.m.: Reds GM Dan O'Brien was asked by a Cincinnati writer about the Reds/Mets/ Ranger rumor discussed yesterday. His quote: "That gets an A for creativity and an F for reality." I guess we'll see who's holding the phone in Cincinnati, but if all that the Reds pull off before the deadline is the Joe Randa deal, I'll give O'Brien an F for job security.

fielder's choice

07-27-2005, 08:59 AM

Switch Dunn and Griffey and you got a deal. :thumbup:

I'd rather have Griffey up with the game on the line, and he's hit in the 3 hole almost his whole career, so I'd put him back there.

MWM

07-27-2005, 08:59 AM

Speaking of Will Carroll (who I like), did he ever address the whole Pete Rose reinstation rumor he was positive about last year?

Sheltonmassacre

07-27-2005, 09:11 AM

I sure would hate to see the mayor leave on the clubhouse side but on the production side he sure needs to pick it up or I would have to agree that he needs to be traded and slide dunn to first.

NJReds

07-27-2005, 09:12 AM

Omar Minaya all but shot down this rumor on NY sports radio last night.

redsfan30

07-27-2005, 09:39 AM

I'd rather have Griffey up with the game on the line, and he's hit in the 3 hole almost his whole career, so I'd put him back there.
I totally agree. Adam Dunn is alot of things, but a consistant clutch hitter, he is not.

Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs and the tying run at second.....give me Junior over Dunn anytime.

Sheltonmassacre

07-27-2005, 09:41 AM

Switch Dunn and Griffey and you got a deal. :thumbup:

Get rid of Larue and youve got a better deal!

SteelSD

07-27-2005, 09:50 AM

I totally agree. Adam Dunn is alot of things, but a consistant clutch hitter, he is not.

Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs and the tying run at second.....give me Junior over Dunn anytime.

Ken Griffey Junior:

3-year BA Splits:

Overall- .255 BA
w/RISP- .239 BA
Runner on 2nd- .226

2005 BA Splits:

Overall- .284 BA
w/RISP- .269 BA
Runner on 2nd- .174 BA

Now, it would be silly of me to attempt to use that data to project that Griffey is a "choker". It's small sample size situational data after all. Over more time, Griffey is going to be the same hitter in every situation as he is in any situation.

But I'll bet you didn't expect to see those numbers either.

deltachi8

07-27-2005, 09:56 AM

Ken Griffey Junior:

3-year BA Splits:

Overall- .255 BA
w/RISP- .239 BA
Runner on 2nd- .226

2005 BA Splits:

Overall- .284 BA
w/RISP- .269 BA
Runner on 2nd- .174 BA

Now, it would be silly of me to attempt to use that data to project that Griffey is a "choker". It's small sample size situational data after all. Over more time, Griffey is going to be the same hitter in every situation as he is in any situation.

But I'll bet you didn't expect to see those numbers either.

Steel - are you letting facts get in the way of an argument again?

kjwheels15

07-27-2005, 10:12 AM

Krusty

07-27-2005, 10:14 AM

Omar Minaya all but shot down this rumor on NY sports radio last night.

Name me a GM other than Bowden that gives out details of trade negotiations before the deal is final?

NJReds

07-27-2005, 10:17 AM

Name me a GM other than Bowden that gives out details of trade negotiations before the deal is final?

Minaya.

redsfan30

07-27-2005, 10:23 AM

Ken Griffey Junior:

3-year BA Splits:

Overall- .255 BA
w/RISP- .239 BA
Runner on 2nd- .226

2005 BA Splits:

Overall- .284 BA
w/RISP- .269 BA
Runner on 2nd- .174 BA

Now, it would be silly of me to attempt to use that data to project that Griffey is a "choker". It's small sample size situational data after all. Over more time, Griffey is going to be the same hitter in every situation as he is in any situation.

But I'll bet you didn't expect to see those numbers either.
No, I didn't think his numbers were that bad in those situations. But confidence-wise, I would still feel more confortable with Junior up there rather than Dunn.

westofyou

07-27-2005, 10:34 AM

No, I didn't think his numbers were that bad in those situations. But confidence-wise, I would still feel more confortable with Junior up there rather than Dunn.

Then in the end you're letting your gut always make the call.

Using the force is fine, but you also must respect the numbers from previous battles vs. the Empire.

Boss-Hog

07-27-2005, 10:35 AM

Then in the end you're letting your gut always make the call.

Using the force is fine, but you also must respect the numbers from previous battles vs. the Empire. Great line

Puffy

07-27-2005, 10:38 AM

Ken Griffey Junior:

3-year BA Splits:

Overall- .255 BA
w/RISP- .239 BA
Runner on 2nd- .226

2005 BA Splits:

Overall- .284 BA
w/RISP- .269 BA
Runner on 2nd- .174 BA

Batting Average Steel?? Batting Average? Come on - I think we can do a little better than batting average!!

fielder's choice

07-27-2005, 10:41 AM

Ken Griffey Junior:

3-year BA Splits:

Overall- .255 BA
w/RISP- .239 BA
Runner on 2nd- .226

2005 BA Splits:

Overall- .284 BA
w/RISP- .269 BA
Runner on 2nd- .174 BA

Now, it would be silly of me to attempt to use that data to project that Griffey is a "choker". It's small sample size situational data after all. Over more time, Griffey is going to be the same hitter in every situation as he is in any situation.

But I'll bet you didn't expect to see those numbers either.

You're right, I figured they would be higher, especially this year. Out of curiousity, what are Dunn's splits?

redsfan30

07-27-2005, 10:48 AM

What are Adam Dunn's splits in that situation?

OnBaseMachine

07-27-2005, 11:01 AM

Dunn 3-year BA splits:

Overall-.247/.384/.502
RISP-.210/.421/.434
Runner on 2nd-.176/.443/.313

2005:

Overall-.248/.392/.581
RISP-.222/.467/.514
Runner on 2nd-.200/.586/.467

SteelSD

07-27-2005, 11:10 AM

You're right, I figured they would be higher, especially this year. Out of curiousity, what are Dunn's splits?

OBM posted them (thanks, man).

Here's the thing...

It doesn't really matter what anyone's BA splits are.

Situationally, everyone will end up as pretty much who they over time from a BA perspective.

Or, to more properly address the issue so that Bill James won't drop by and argue with me...

No valid statistical evidence exists that demonstrates, over time, that players are capable of acquiring a significantly higher rate of Base Hit events in any particular situation.

<Editor's note: Bill, you're getting lazy.>

(BTW, if anyone wants to find splits for players, go to espn.com and find the player search section on the MLB page.)

fielder's choice

07-27-2005, 11:38 AM

OBM posted them (thanks, man).

Here's the thing...

It doesn't really matter what anyone's BA splits are.

Situationally, everyone will end up as pretty much who they over time from a BA perspective.

Or, to more properly address the issue so that Bill James won't drop by and argue with me...

No valid statistical evidence exists that demonstrates, over time, that players are capable of acquiring a significantly higher rate of Base Hit events in any particular situation.

<Editor's note: Bill, you're getting lazy.>

(BTW, if anyone wants to find splits for players, go to espn.com and find the player search section on the MLB page.)

I pretty much agree with that quote. I just think Griffey's more likely to get a hit than Dunn is, and almost as likely to hit a HR, so I'd rather have him up with the game on the line.

Puffy

07-27-2005, 11:58 AM

If Casey gets traded here is my lineup:

Freel
Lopez
Dunn
Griffey
Kearns
Pena
Encarnacion
Larue

Two lefties in a row? Four righties in a row? Yup, don't care. I want my best players to get the most at bats in the game. If Dunn and Junior batting three/four gives them 4.5 at bats per game what do i care if one of those each game is against a lefty? Answer is I don't. Cause I am more concerned about the other 3.5 at bats per game.

Benihana

07-27-2005, 12:05 PM

Casey straight up for Heilman makes so much sense on so many levels. My prediction: Soriano ends up a Met if not at the trade deadline then in Free Agency.

flyer85

07-27-2005, 12:31 PM

From Carroll today

Reds GM Dan O'Brien was asked by a Cincinnati writer about the Reds/Mets/ Ranger rumor discussed yesterday. His quote: "That gets an A for creativity and an F for reality." I guess we'll see who's holding the phone in Cincinnati, but if all that the Reds pull off before the deadline is the Joe Randa deal, I'll give O'Brien an F for job security.

KronoRed

07-27-2005, 12:34 PM

Two lefties in a row? Four righties in a row? Yup, don't care. I want my best players to get the most at bats in the game. If Dunn and Junior batting three/four gives them 4.5 at bats per game what do i care if one of those each game is against a lefty? Answer is I don't. Cause I am more concerned about the other 3.5 at bats per game.

:clap:

I get so tired about "split the lefties!" no..put yer best batters in the best order. :bang: