Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

[big boy]

The Reds are 10 games behind in the wild-card standings with 57 games left. I think they have a shot.

Anybody with me?

[KronoRed]

No.

We have about 10 teams in front of us...we also don't get to see the NL west much more this year ;)

[Little Alex]

I am with you 100 percent. I am just pushing for .500 but darnit, if this team's pitching holds up they are a fine ballclub.

Tough game tonight though as 2 of the hottest teams right now face off.

:beerme:


Go Reds!!!! We can do it!!!! Hell must have frozen over anyway because Milton's ERA is below 7 (hehe).

[BRM]

No.

We have about 10 teams in front of us...we also don't get to see the NL west much more this year ;)

Actually, there are only eight teams in front of the Reds. ;)

[Joseph]

Barring a miracle of some sort, I just don't see it. The Cubs get closer Kerry Wood, SS Nomar Garciaparra, and set up man Scotty Williamson back on friday, plus added OF Matt Lawton yesterday. I can't envision passing them now, much as I hate it. My ultimate goal is to play above 500 ball the rest of the season and see improvement from the young guys and see Aurilia cut loose. if the team could somehow manage to finish 3rd in the central I'd consider it a huge victory.

[KronoRed]

But still..only 7 more games against the west ;)

The Central that has crushed us this year..35!

East..15.

[larryboy]

Focus on .500 first and how to build a pitching staff for 2006.

[Little Alex]

Tonight will probably be a huge wakeup call, since we play a real team.

But I'll be watching. Maybe it is time for the Reds to lay the smackdown? Who Dey! Oh wait...

[captainmorgan07]

im with you with how we've been playing since the all-star break and the way the pitching has been performing and if it continues like it has there is a chance

[Roy Tucker]

Oh, they have a shot. Like 100-1. The fan in me will secretly watch the WC standings for a while. I don't give up till they are mathematically out of it. But the rational part of me will say "fool!".

They'll have to pull off an August like the July that the Astros just had. And I don't think the Reds have near enough pitching to pull that off. Harang, Milton, and Claussen doesn't have the same ring as Clemens, Oswalt, and Pettite. They dug too big of a hole in April/May/June.

[zombie-a-go-go]

Oh, they have a shot. Like 100-1. The fan in me will secretly watch the WC standings for a while. I don't give up till they are mathematically out of it. But the rational part of me will say "fool!".

Ditto.

And here I was, all ready to wipe the Reds from my consciousness for the rest of the season and focus on the Bengals. Then they had to go and do this.

Punks.

;) :D

[Hooligan]

I'm with you. I'll believe until they are eliminated.

[redsfan30]

No chance. There is no way you're going to make up 10 games on 8 teams in just over 50 games remaining.

However, .500 would be a huge accomplishment for this team. With how bad they played the two and a half months of the year, I thought they had 100 loses in the bag. I never would have guessed they would even sniff .500.

The way they are playing makes the rest of the season more interesting. It keeps us interested in baseball. If they keep on losing games, it isn't fun to watch anymore come September.

I will watch the Wild Card standings though.

[Tommyjohn25]

Deep down inside I still think they have a shot, but passing the Stros is gonna be tough. They are on fire right now and have great pitching, though their offense can't hold a candle to ours.

[Falls City Beer]

This team will be lucky to end its season at 11 under .500 (which is where they are now). I agree the Braves will stomp our guts...again, which will, in turn, begin a new losing skid.

[Falls City Beer]

Deep down inside I still think they have a shot, but passing the Stros is gonna be tough. They are on fire right now and have great pitching, though their offense can't hold a candle to ours.

I think now that St. Louis has suffered some appreciable offensive losses, no one can claim clear offensive superiority. The Reds are now just a shade better than St. Louis (any team with Pujols batting third and Edmonds fourth is automatically a top 3 NL offense), somewhat better than Houston, and about on a par with Chicago. Now if Kearns or Pena decides to do anything in this decade, the Reds get thrust in front again.

[PuffyPig]

I think now that St. Louis has suffered some appreciable offensive losses, no one can claim clear offensive superiority. The Reds are now just a shade better than St. Louis (any team with Pujols batting third and Edmonds fourth is automatically a top 3 NL offense), somewhat better than Houston, and about on a par with Chicago. Now if Kearns or Pena decides to do anything in this decade, the Reds get thrust in front again.

The Astros are 11th in runs scored, we are light years ahead of them.

THe Cubs are 6th, 61 runs behind us. THey are not on par with our offense.

The Cards are the only team even close to us.

[tp_on_safari]

No.

...we also don't get to see the NL west much more this year ;)


Dont shoot the messenger!


http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/baseball/mlb/cincinnati_reds/12273442.htm

Posted on Mon, Aug. 01, 2005
Click to learn more...

REDS 7, PADRES 1

Padres admit they're awful after Reds sweep

Dunn's slam caps lopsided series vs. ex-West leaders

ASSOCIATED PRESS

SAN DIEGO - The San Diego Padres' slump has gotten so bad that a disenchanted fan stood up during the sixth inning yesterday and started yelling, "Let's go, Chargers, let's go," a chant that rang out through the quiet ballpark.

The Padres aren't quite ready to make way for the city's NFL franchise, but they haven't exactly been playing like a first-place team for most of the summer.

And now they technically aren't a first-place team.

Adam Dunn hit a grand slam in the fifth inning, Cincinnati's third homer of the game, and the Reds beat San Diego 7-1 to drop the Padres percentage points behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the sad-sack NL West.

Wily Mo Pena and Rich Aurilia also homered to complete the three-game sweep for the Reds, who have won a season-high five straight.

"We know we're awful," Manager Bruce Bochy said. "We're embarrassed, to be honest. We've got to keep coming out here and getting after it. We have no choice.

"Right now it's like a virus has hit our bats and now it's hit our staff a little bit. We've got to get this thing cured, and quick."

The Padres have lost 12 of 13 overall and 35 of 53 since June 1. Clutch hits and home runs have practically disappeared, and their bullpen is running on fumes because starters haven't been going deep into games.

The Reds outscored San Diego 24-5 and made spacious Petco Park play like a bandbox. The Reds outhomered the Padres 8-0 and outhit them 33-18. The Reds had 21 extra-base hits while the Padres had just four.

"Our team is going to hit home runs regardless," Dunn said. "It's a big park but I don't think that the park really matters."

Dunn went 6-for-14 with three homers, two doubles and nine RBI in the series.

San Diego has gone eight games without a homer. The Padres failed to connect off Eric Milton, who leads the majors with 31 homers allowed.

Milton (5-11) threw seven scoreless innings, allowing four hits while striking out six and walking none. He retired 16 of his final 17 batters and lowered his ERA from 7.03 to 6.65.

"That's the best I've felt all season," Milton said. "Today was good for me to throw up zeros like that. Today was really what I've been looking for."

n Aaron Harang threw eight strong innings against his hometown team, and Sean Casey and Javier Valentin homered as the Reds beat San Diego 9-1 on Saturday night.

Harang (7-9) improved to 3-0 in his career against the Padres. He held them to one run and seven hits, struck out four and walked one.

[SunDeck]

Actually, there are only eight teams in front of the Reds. ;)

Oh, that settles it. I'm in!






Not.

[E. Davis 44]

Barring a miracle of some sort, I just don't see it. The Cubs get closer Kerry Wood, SS Nomar Garciaparra, and set up man Scotty Williamson back on friday, plus added OF Matt Lawton yesterday..

I watched Wood pitch yesterday against single A Fort Wayne, the Padres farm club. He only threw fastballs and sliders to save his arm, but he did give up a hit in his one inning. His fastball had good velocity, but against major league competition I dont think he will be real great the rest of this season.

[Falls City Beer]

The Astros are 11th in runs scored, we are light years ahead of them.

THe Cubs are 6th, 61 runs behind us. THey are not on par with our offense.

The Cards are the only team even close to us.

But that doesn't take into account how the teams are currently constructed and who is producing in the now: the Reds have lost Randa and almost all production from RF (where off and on we got production early in the year).

The Cubs ADD Lawton and Garciaparra (maybe) and still keep their two MVP candidates in Lee and Ramirez--plus they play in a home run neutral and slight-pitcher favorable park, so that suppresses some offense. The Cubs ARE close to the Reds, regardless of runs scored totals.

And Houston just keeps getting better offensively, and I just don't know how.

[shredda2000]

I believe a wildcard spot is out of reach, but if the Reds could go 34-23 the rest of the way, that would give them a .500 record for the year. :thumbup:

[Casey_21]

Not impossible... Unlikely? Hell yeah. I aint giving up on em' though. Go Reds!!

____________________________________


:felo: + :freel: - :aurilia: = :rant2:

[Danny Serafini]

Sorry, but this team's playoff hopes are dead. I'd rather concentrate on shaping this team up for 2006 than worry about winning games in 2005 at this point.

[PickOff]

I don't see Houston slowing down very much. Even if they do we will still need a .550 winning percentage to hope for the wildcard. That would mean we have to play .750 ball the rest of the way. We've played .700 ball the last twenty games against teams with a combined .450 winning percentage. And we need to improve our record against teams with a combined winning percentage (weighted per game played) of .511. I wish I could say I see that happening, but I don't. And even if we made the playoffs, we would get demolished with our pitching, starters to bullpen.

[Strikes Out Looking]

My heart says I'm with you, my head says you're nuts! I'm just hoping to make a run at the Brewers and fight it out for third in the division.

(For you Cub fans, they're going to sleep with the Pirates--Nomar or No Nomar, and that's no knock on Wood, but we've all had Prior knowledge of their Dusty tricks.)

[KronoRed]

Get ready for 06 should be the team plan right now.

[Roy Tucker]

I believe for every drop of rain that falls
A flower grows,
I believe that somewhere in the darkest night
A candle glows.

I believe for everyone who goes astray
Someone will come to show the way.
I believe,
Oh, I believe.

I believe above the storm
The smallest prayer, will still be heard.
I believe that someone in that great somewhere
Hears every word

Every time I hear a newborn baby cry,
Or touch a leaf
Or see the sky,
Then I know why I believe.

Every time I hear a newborn baby cry,
Or touch a leaf
Or see the sky,
Then I know why I believe.

[alex trevino]

No. But I think this team will make a run at 3rd place and be "media darlings" next sping with a strong finish and outstanding offense.

I think this team is better then most people think...Believe me I have been very critical of the red's FO and ownership but this team can swing the bat. The last few years I would attend alot of games early in the season then stop going at all come July. This year it has been just the opposite, the team is fun to watch. They will score alot of runs . Hope the FO keeps them together.

[cincrazy]

we're 5 back of the brewers, so i'm just focusing on that. the astros made their run last year because of amazing pitching, something that we don't have. i'm sorry, but when aaron harang is your ace, you're not a playoff team. with that being said, i admire this team for not giving up, and hopefully they can play well the rest of the year and possibly sneak back to .500, which would be a HUGE accomplishment. keep in mind, this franchise hasn't had a winning season since 2000, i believe the longest drought since the 50's. so if we were somehow able to get to 82 wins, that'd be a great plus. but as far as the wild card is concerned..... almost impossible. now, if we were still in the western division, we'd be only 4 games out ;)

[fs43340]

The Reds are 10 games behind in the wild-card standings with 57 games left. I think they have a shot.

Anybody with me? No, because that would mean O'Brien and Narron would be back next year and we would have a rerun of the first half of the first half of this year. Personally, I can't take that.

[macro]

Let's say it takes 92-70 to get the wildcard. The Reds would have to go 45-12 the rest of the way. Even if we lower the estimate to 88-74 for the wildcard, it still would take 41-16. Sorry, it ain't gonna happen. As others have already said, they'll do very well to go 34-23 the rest of the way and finish .500.

[RDriesen16]

The Reds are 10 games behind in the wild-card standings with 57 games left. I think they have a shot.

Anybody with me?

NO SHOT. to go on LONG streaks, 1 like the a's are on, you have to have a lot of good starters. if you are an off team, you have to have like 4 or 5 guys get hot all at once. just not likely. and the only reason we are on the streak we are on is cause we played such a horrible off team in sd. do i think we will play 500 or better ball the rest of the way? yes. but we arent leapfrogging all the teams we have to

[RDriesen16]

No, because that would mean O'Brien and Narron would be back next year and we would have a rerun of the first half of the first half of this year. Personally, I can't take that.im with you. this is just like most years. play just well enough to give hope for next year. keeping all the morons in place. the best thing that could have happened, whether we want it or not, would have been a REALLY bad year. so we can get all these losers canned

[westofyou]

Only five teams have been 15 games under .500 at one point in the season and come back to be 10 games over .500. This years A's are the 5th, last year the Astros did it. 2 escape me and the other one was the Miracle Braves of 1914.

[Falls City Beer]

2 escape me

Jerk. How could you? :)

[SunDeck]

I believe the Bengals will make the playoffs this year. What'll that get me?

[westofyou]

I believe the Bengals will make the playoffs this year. What'll that get me?

A ride on your Uncles Bus?

[KronoRed]

I believe the Bengals will make the playoffs this year. What'll that get me?

A glass of kool aid?

4-12 :devil:

[as_v_1]

This team will be lucky to end its season at 11 under .500 (which is where they are now). I agree the Braves will stomp our guts...again, which will, in turn, begin a new losing skid.


I would not be so quick to say that the Reds are going to get killed by the Braves. Granted they have the second best record in the league, but we don’t have to face Smoltz and Hudson. Back in June when we played them Sosa pitched well but only was able to go 4.1/3 innings, Ramirez allowed five earned runs and eight hits in six innings, and Davies gave up five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. If and granted it is a big if our pitching keeps us in the game I think we have a legit shot at beating the Braves.

[Ron Madden]

My heart says I'm with you, my head says you're nuts! I'm just hoping to make a run at the Brewers and fight it out for third in the division.

(For you Cub fans, they're going to sleep with the Pirates--Nomar or No Nomar, and that's no knock on Wood, but we've all had Prior knowledge of their Dusty tricks.)


:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

[SirFelixCat]

Focus on .500 first and how to build a pitching staff for 2006.

Agreed. But, I will say this. This time last year, the wheels had already fallen off. This season, this time, there is room for hope. Maybe not for this season, though striving for .500 is a reason to watch as opposed to last season, but for next season. This offense is sick. Can we find the pitching to help? Between today and spring, we will see. Should be fun to watch. :beerme:

[SunDeck]

A glass of kool aid?

4-12 :devil:

Negative vibes!
Can't you see that tiny, dim little light at the end of this fifteen year long tunnel? It's the sun, reflecting off Mike's shiny head...or the hood of his Chevy Lumina. That, or it's Marvin with a flashlight, showing him where his keys are.

Anyway, sure, I'm a believer, but I also don't want the Reds to play over their heads for the rest of the year so that the FO goes into the off season thinking that they will compete with the sorry rotation they brought in this year.

[Caseyfan21]

I suppose the strategy this year is better than last year. Last year we did all our winning early and then coasted into football season. This year, the Reds were crappy early and now are doing winning towards the end of the season. It's kind of like the Bengals from a few years ago. They would always only win 4 or 5 games, but 3 of those wins would come in the last 4 or 5 games so it would give everyone the false impression that the team would be competitive the next year. Guess it's better to have some hope for next going into the offseason. Honestly, with another emergence/acquisition of a solid starting pitcher, we might not be as far away from at least being competitive as we think next year.

[creek14]

Adam believes.

Real test awaits Reds
By Hal McCoy

Dayton Daily News

So, Cincinnati Reds fans, allow yourself some premature exuberation, then hunker down for this week's reality check.

The Atlanta Braves are coming, after winning six of their last seven games and wearing a name tag that says, "Legitimate First-Place Team."

The Reds came home from San Diego with a five-game winning streak tucked in the equipment bag, thanks to a schedule that permitted them to play the San Diego Padres in the best-of-times.

San Diego, leaders of the National League West for most of the season, was in first place when the Reds hit town, but they should have been wearing name tags that said, "Worst First-Place Team."

They are four games under .500, they were swept three games by the Reds, they have lost 12 of 13, their fans cheer mockingly when they draw a walk, but they remain tied for first place.

So Padres fans can stick out their tongues at Reds fans and say, "So there."

Adam Dunn hit three home runs in San Diego's Petco Park, a place where the Padres say their home runs die at the warning track. The Reds hit eight during the three-game series, the Padres none.

Dunn believes The Real Reds are showing up.

"I knew before the All-Star break we were going to come back and play well," said Dunn. "You can see we're relaxing now with the pressures off people. You can just go out and play now. That's what everyone is doing now and everybody's numbers in the second half reflect that."

Since the All-Star break, the Reds are 12-5, the third best record in the majors behind Oakland and Houston.

This is Atlanta's second visit this season to Great American Ball Park & Home Run Haven. They took three of four from the Reds in mid-May, but neither team is the same. Both are better.

Despite near-zero participation in trade activities, the Reds are a much different baseball team than the one the Braves beat up.

Gone is manager Dave Miley. Gone is pitching coach Don Gullett. Gone is second baseman D'Angelo Jimenez. Gone is closer Danny Graves. Gone is No. 1 starter Paul Wilson. Gone is third baseman Joe Randa.

Jerry Narron is manager and Vern Ruhle is pitching coach. Ryan Freel and Rich Aurilia are the second basemen, depending on how high the moon and how deep the river that day. David Weathers and Kent Mercker share the closing duties, depending on how deep the river and how high the moon that day.

Luke Hudson is in the rotation and the bullpen is populated by names like Jason Standridge, Brian Shackelford, Randy Keisler and Todd Coffey. Edwin Encarnacion is at third base and Felipe Lopez is entrenched at shortstop.

The Reds traded Randa to the Padres eight days before the trade deadline and while general manager Jim O'Brien listened to overtures for Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, Kent Mercker and David Weathers, he did nothing more.

That, though, doesn't mean he is finished. O'Brien hinted that trades could be made in August and even September, although players now have to go through waivers.

"Sometimes people don't appreciate the fact that the trade deadline doesn't preclude opportunities from unfolding in August or even September," he said. "We're always looking to improve but sometimes the timing of a trade may not be appropriate. It might have to be something in the off-season."

Now the team has four outfielders who want to play every day and an infielder, Rich Aurilia, who wants to play every day. And that won't happen, creating possible clubhouse turmoil.

For now, though, it is time to see how the rejuvenated Reds fare against a real first-place team.

[SunDeck]

Real test awaits Reds
By Hal McCoy

Dayton Daily News

So, Cincinnati Reds fans, allow yourself some premature exuberation, then hunker down for this week's reality check.

The Atlanta Braves are coming, after winning six of their last seven games and wearing a name tag that says, "Legitimate First-Place Team."

Practically an understatement. The way these guys have played this year, they could play in lawn chairs and still beat 3/4 of the NL. It's like playing McGyver.
Half the team on the DL? No problem, we'll just go back to the workbench and make a new lineup from innertubes and paperclips.

[MrCinatit]

heck, they could be 35 games out of first with 36 games left to play, and i would still hold onto that small glimmer of hope.
though unlikely, it would be one of the great comebacks of history if they were to overcome.
of course, i said the Sox were out of it after game TWO last year, so....

[GAC]

It's times like these I wish we were in the NL West! :lol:

[Wheelhouse]

They are 9 1/2 games back in the wild card, and granted there are a hundred teams ahead of them, but there are almost two months of baseball left...stranger things have happened...

[KronoRed]

Yes.

Pitching is still bad.

[Reds Fanatic]

With 49 games left it would be almost impossible to come back from 9 1/2 games. Not only would the Reds have to continue to play well a lot of teams in front of us would have to totally collapse.

[cumberlandreds]

I'm afraid they have been out of it since about the first of May. :(

[REDREAD]

Nice to have optimism, but the fat lady sang about 6 weeks ago.

[deltachi8]

Nice to have optimism, but the fat lady sang about 6 weeks ago.

i thought i heard her tuning up in the off season
:laugh:

[Strikes Out Looking]

95% out of it, but miracles do happen--ask the 64 Cards and the 78 Yankees. Of course for this to happen the Reds have to continue getting strong starting pitching day in and day out and continue to score at will. I'm not going to bet on that to happen, but I can hope for it. Of course, I also think I might win the lottery someday!

[Heath]

Only if David S. Ward produces the last 40 games.......

[M2]

The Reds were mathematically elminated when they traded for Ramon Ortiz and signed Eric Milton.

[Little Alex]

I think it can be done. Ya gotta believe!!!! :cool:

C'mon... is this REDSzone or CRYINYOURBEERzone? :beerme:

Actually, its been cryinmybeerzone before so no biggie. But still. :thumbdown

Who Dey!! or Go Redlegs!!!! Ya gotta believe!!! :thumbup:

[BRM]

The Reds were mathematically elminated when they traded for Ramon Ortiz and signed Eric Milton.

Weber was the final straw...

[tsj017]

Yes, they're out of it. Let's put a stop to all starry-eyed wild-card thoughts right now.

They've played much better in the past month or so (roughly since Miley and Gullett were axed). However, they were SO bad before that they dug a hole no team can climb out of.

It does seem that a fourth or third-place finish is possible. That would be completely respectable, considering how bad they were in the first half.

[reds44]

Before you start thinking WC, you have to get to .500. When we get to .500 then I will look at the WC standings.

[RBA]

Let's change the season to 188 games. Have a double header everyday until the season ends.

[Joseph]

Before you start thinking WC, you have to get to .500. When we get to .500 then I will look at the WC standings.

Even the most extreme optimist should look at it this way. Get to .500, or target it, then see where things are from there.

[pedro]

National League
W L GB Left
Houston 60 52 -- 50
Washington 59 53 1.0 50
Philadelphia 59 54 1.5 49
Florida 58 54 2.0 50
NY Mets 57 55 3.0 50
Milwaukee 56 59 5.5 47
Arizona 54 60 7.0 48
Chi Cubs 54 60 7.0 48
Cincinnati 52 62 9.0 48
LA Dodgers 50 62 10.0 50
San Francisco 48 63 11.5 51
Pittsburgh 48 65 12.5 49
Colorado 43 70 17.5 49

[alex trevino]

too far back, too many teams, too few games left...on the bright side this team can score some runs so you get your moneys worth when you go see them play...much better team then a few years ago...next year is looking better and better!

[Falls City Beer]

National League
W L GB Left
Houston 60 52 -- 50
Washington 59 53 1.0 50
Philadelphia 59 54 1.5 49
Florida 58 54 2.0 50
NY Mets 57 55 3.0 50
Milwaukee 56 59 5.5 47
Arizona 54 60 7.0 48
Chi Cubs 54 60 7.0 48
Cincinnati 52 62 9.0 48
LA Dodgers 50 62 10.0 50
San Francisco 48 63 11.5 51
Pittsburgh 48 65 12.5 49
Colorado 43 70 17.5 49



The Reds should finish ahead of a number of those teams, but they won't finish ahead of Houston, Philly, Florida, and maybe Washington, but I don't know, if the Reds don't see their pitching re-implode, they could finish in front of Washington.

[Falls City Beer]

The Reds were mathematically elminated when they traded for Ramon Ortiz and signed Eric Milton.

Maybe the worst $11.5 million dollars spent in the history of the sport.

[westofyou]

Maybe the worst $11.5 million dollars spent in the history of the sport.

Mark Davis Kansas City Royals is a monster of a bad deal


1990 Kansas City Royals $2,125,000
1991 Kansas City Royals $3,625,000
1992 Kansas City Royals $3,625,000

YEAR TEAM AGE W L PCT G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB SO ERA RSAA
1990 Royals 29 2 7 .222 53 3 0 6 28 68.2 71 43 39 52 73 5.11 -9
1991 Royals 30 6 3 .667 29 5 0 1 8 62.2 55 36 31 39 47 4.45 -3
1992 Royals 31 1 3 .250 13 6 0 0 4 36.1 42 31 29 28 19 7.18 -13
TOTALS 9 13 .409 95 14 0 7 40 167.2 168 110 99 119 139 5.31 -25
LG AVERAGE 9 9 .500 1 12 167.2 166 82 74 63 105 3.99 0

YEAR TEAM HR H/9 BR/9 SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB SHO WP IBB HBP BFP BK NW NL
1990 Royals 9 9.31 16.65 9.57 6.82 1.40 0 6 3 4 334 0 3 6
1991 Royals 6 7.90 13.64 6.75 5.60 1.21 0 1 0 1 276 0 4 5
1992 Royals 6 10.40 17.34 4.71 6.94 0.68 0 1 0 0 176 0 1 3
TOTALS 21 9.02 15.67 7.46 6.39 1.17 0 8 3 5 786 0 8 14
LG AVERAGE 15 8.89 12.53 5.62 3.41 1.65 1 6 5 4 717 1

[alex trevino]

Ouch I remember the Mark Davis deal...But he had a heck of a walk year with San Diego as I recall.

[pedro]

The Reds should finish ahead of a number of those teams, but they won't finish ahead of Houston, Philly, Florida, and maybe Washington, but I don't know, if the Reds don't see their pitching re-implode, they could finish in front of Washington.

Considering how they were playing 6 weeks ago, I think that's an amazing development in itself.

[Gainesville Red]

Got that clubhouse cancer Joe Randa out of there. ;)

[Mario-Rijo]

Think we have a shot at a W/C huh? Here’s a Breakdown of what I think our record may look like, granted I am basing this on how we are playing now w/o Sept call ups etc. Plus you have to hope to make up 9 games on Houston and 7 on Marlins who both have 50 games to play (not counting their games today), as opposed to our 48 (after today’s win) who are the logical choices to win the wildcard.


The Tough
6 vs St. Louis (3 GABP, 3 Busch last series of yr) last 2 weeks of season, rest time for Cards? I’m optimistic, we will take 3 of 6 as we will get 2 of last 3 @ Busch to end the season.
3 @ Braves = We will take 1 of 3

The Rest
4 vs S.F. = My gut says 2-2, don’t know why because my head says 3-1. But 2-2 it is
3 vs. Dbacks = 2-1
3 vs. Phils = 2-1
3 @ Wash = 3-0
3 @ Hou = 1-2
3 @ Cubs = 1-2
10 vs. Pirates 3 @ GABP 7-3
10 vs. Brewers 3 @ GABP 6-4

28-20 + our current record 52-62 = 80 – 82 that from an optimist! 80-82 isn’t gonna win Dick, but perhaps 3rd place. W/ the Cards & Stros ahead of us, personally I hope we go at least 31-17 and end up 83-81 wouldn’t that be something. I say we keep a watch even though, most of us will turn to football and stop paying them much mind. This will give us a reason to watch them at least casually for the rest of the yr. However if we go on a tear between now & the Houston series which is a span of 17 games we could be in it but you are talking minimum 13-4. I dunno but it should be interesting if we are around .500 going in to Houston. But again I am an optimist and I just don’t see it. :thumbup:

BTW Record to be IN the W/C Race in the end 35-13 or something very close.

[Falls City Beer]

Considering how they were playing 6 weeks ago, I think that's an amazing development in itself.

Ashes in the mouth.

But I'm a glass-half-empty guy. :drink: Largely because I know the Reds won't carry a strong finish into next season. They're immune to contending.

[TheBurn]

...wouldn't that be something? Yes it would be... 164 games. But I hear ya'... 83-79 would be just about incredible! :eek:

[Mario-Rijo]

Yes it would be... 164 games. But I hear ya'... 83-79 would be just about incredible!

LOL jeez must have been all those numbers crunching around that threw me off. How about 30-18 for 82-80!

[captainmorgan07]

i still have some hope stranger things would happen but they should focuse on gettin to .500 first and continuing to play good baseball and good things will happen

[KoryMac5]

This is strangely reminiscent of last year when we played well down the stretch. I personally think finishing above 500. would be what I would want from my beloved Reds and I think with this offense we can do it. I also like the way Narron has been handling things with defined roles for all our guys, gives them a certain comfort level. Thats been reflected in recent play. I hope we can trade Casey in the offseason move Dunn to first and sign somebody who can help this team get over the hump

[4256 Hits]

I'll stand by my pre-season perdiction of 69 and 93.

[Unassisted]

Including today's win, since Narron took over, the Reds are 25-19 for a .568 winning percentage.

If the Reds maintain that winning percentage, they would win 27 of the remaining 48 games and finish 89-83.

[fielder's choice]

If the Reds maintain that winning percentage, they would win 37 of the remaining 66 games and finish 89-91.

:confused:

[shredda2000]

Including today's win, since Narron took over, the Reds are 25-19 for a .568 winning percentage.

If the Reds maintain that winning percentage, they would win 37 of the remaining 66 games and finish 89-91.

They play 180 games this year? :eek:

[Falls City Beer]

I'll stand by my pre-season perdition of 69 and 93.

There. I fixed it for you.

[jnwohio]

Think we have a shot at a W/C huh? Here’s a Breakdown of what I think our record may look like......

The Tough
6 vs St. Louis (3 GABP, 3 Busch last series of yr) last 2 weeks of season, rest time for Cards? I’m optimistic, we will take 3 of 6 as we will get 2 of last 3 @ Busch to end the season.
3 @ Braves = We will take 1 of 3

The Rest
4 vs S.F. = My gut says 2-2, don’t know why because my head says 3-1. But 2-2 it is
3 vs. Dbacks = 2-1
3 vs. Phils = 2-1
3 @ Wash = 3-0
3 @ Hou = 1-2
3 @ Cubs = 1-2
10 vs. Pirates 3 @ GABP 7-3
10 vs. Brewers 3 @ GABP 6-4

28-20 + our current record 52-62 = 80 – 82 that from an optimist! 80-82 isn’t gonna win Dick, but perhaps 3rd place. W/ the Cards & Stros ahead of us, personally I hope we go at least 31-17 and end up 83-81 wouldn’t that be something.

BTW Record to be IN the W/C Race in the end 35-13 or something very close.


Here is my view:

Of the 10 home games with the Giants, Dbacks and Phils, I think they can win 7 with an outside shot at 8

The road games against the Nats and Cubs (6) I agree with the overall 4-2 but I disagree with 1-2 against the Cubs. The Cubs have already packed it in. There will be no motivation for them in getting to .500 or 3rd place while those will be motivators for the Reds. 2-1 likely in both cities, possibility of another Chicago sweep.

The 20 games with the Pirates and Brewers are the real key for the Reds. They need 15 victories in those games for .500.

That leaves the 12 games with the legit contenders (and in my mind likely playoff teams) the Braves, Cards, and Astros. I like 6-6 more than the 5-7 projected above.

So I guess I see the Reds getting to .500, perhaps as many as 85 wins and 3rd place in the division.

Any shot, remote as it is, at the WC will require the Cards and Braves to win virtually everyday except against the Reds and for the wildcard pretenders to take turns beating on each other. However, I think 3rd in the WC is also very possible ('Stros win, somebody from the east 2nd then the Reds)

[Unassisted]

They play 180 games this year? :eek:Guess my mind was still on vacation, even if the rest of me just got back from vacation.

27-21 the rest of the way puts them at an 89-83 finish.

[kyred14]

Guess my mind was still on vacation, even if the rest of me just got back from vacation.

27-21 the rest of the way puts them at an 89-83 finish.

I think you mean 79-83. ;)

[Falls City Beer]

I think you mean 79-83. ;)

Which was my preseason prediction. It's certainly possible. Not probable, but possible.

[RFS62]

It would be a nice project for someone smarter than me (I know, that doesn't narrow the pool down much) to calculate what our record would have been had everyone played to their career norms.

[George Foster]

The Reds are now 10 games under .500 with 57 games left. If they went 38-19, which would be almost a .667 winning percentage, they would finish 85-76, 9 games over .500. The Astros are 9 games over .500 right now.

What are the odds the reds will go 38-19? What are the odds the Astros will go 1 game below .500 the rest of the season? I think you have your answer!

[bleedsred]

The Reds are now 10 games under .500 with 57 games left. If they went 38-19, which would be almost a .667 winning percentage, they would finish 85-76, 9 games over .500. The Astros are 9 games over .500 right now.

What are the odds the reds will go 38-19? What are the odds the Astros will go 1 game below .500 the rest of the season? I think you have your answer!

I emailed Pete and he said that the odds were 10,000 to 1(or the same as Milton throwing 7 innings of 1 run ball in one of his next 3 starts) :D

[Topcat]

I'll stand by my pre-season perdiction of 69 and 93.

Road to perdiction? :D Ah knew i had the wrong name to dload that movie tanks for the heads up :beerme:

[kaldaniels]

Here's my thought...I hope my numbers are right. If we go 19-8 in the next few games, the team will be 70-70...then we can talk wildcard. Simple as that.

[George Foster]

The reds are now 10 games under .500, not 11.

[Unassisted]

I think you mean 79-83. ;)Yeah, that. :D

[TeamCasey]

Yes, they were out long ago.

...and I'm the original "I believe" gal!

I swapped my rose colored glasses for blue blockers early on this season.

[KronoRed]

Blue?!?!

Have you gone over to the cubs side?!?!?!?!?!? ;)

[Little Alex]

I Still think it can be done.

Ya gotta believe!!! :thumbup:

[princeton]

if Johnny Evers and Hank Gowdy can stay healthy, then we'll sweep the A's in the WS

[SteelSD]

It would be a nice project for someone smarter than me (I know, that doesn't narrow the pool down much) to calculate what our record would have been had everyone played to their career norms.

PECOTA actually predicted a most likely scenario of 76-86. So did chili, Boss, and paintmered.

I projected a 77-85 record after running a RC analysis based on the most likely Runs Scored/Runs Allowed numbers (a 10-Pythag Win gain over 2004). jmcclain matched that. woy threw up 78-84 as the number.

M2 (spring feverishly-optimistic as he was) predicted 74 Wins, Ravenlord chose 75 as his target number of victories, and Raisor stole that number from RL's computer. alloverjr picked the same number of wins, but didn't resort to thievery.

Right now, there are three guys who are on the nose if everything holds equal- deltachi, RFA1966, and MWM predicted a record of 72-90, which is smack dab where the Reds would be if they post the same RS and RA per game averages going forward.

However, if the Reds play .500 ball the rest of the way, they're going to end up with 75 Wins. .522 ball would hit PECOTA spot-on. A .543 W/L record from here on out would give them 77 Wins. They'd need to post a .565 or better Win % to get any higher than that.

[registerthis]

If this club gets to .500 it will be a miracle.

If they make the playoffs, it will be because at least 5 teams ahead of them had so many players found guilty of steroid use they were unable to field a complete team.

Ain't gonna happen.