Reds Ws/Ls prediction thread.

[gonelong]

Lets have everybody chime in here, and lets hold off on the "If so an so is healthy" or if this/that stuff for this one thread. Give a simple Ws and Ls regular season record prediction, not your hope, not a best/worst case scenarion, but the number you'd put out there if you had to bet your house on being within 5 Ws or so of your call. Max range of 5 Ws.

79-84 Ws

[VR]

89-74
Reds beat Giants in 1 game playoff to decide wild card. :) (BTW, Steve Parris does NOT start this game <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" /> )

<small>[ 03-31-2002, 02:39 PM: Message edited by: VR ]</small>

[Hoosier Red]

85-77

[Appalachian Red]

85 - 77. Strong everyday lineup and bullpen carry Reds to edge of Wild Card race. If we are close enough, hopefully we can trade for SP before the trade deadline. Hope springs eternal - that's the great thing about spring!

[Crosley68]

Everyday line-up and bullpen are too good not to be at least .500 if there are not catastrophic injuries.

84-78

[Mike de la Hoz]

63-99, if they get great starting pitching from these mongrels.

[red-in-la]

Are we allowed to say what we really think without being called pessimists? I am hoping so.

60-102

Reasons:

1. You have not heard the last from JR's knee.

2. You have not heard the last from Larkin's mesh.

3. You have not heard the last from Casey's back.

4. You have not heard the last from Reitsma's elbow.

5. Acevedo will be just plain bad (soon people will be making the excuse that he has hardly pitched in the minors and was rushed, which is actually true).

6. Haynes will be the same awful pitcher he has always been.

7. Clark will get 500 AB's filling in for JR and Juan (because JR will be hurt and Encarnacion will be hitting .211 with 2 strike outs a game).

8. LaRue will hit .185 (like another great defensive catcher named Johnson).

9. Sullivan will finally blow up his rubber arm.

10. Graves' ERA will be 4.50.

Not saying this because I like it. But I don't think I have every seen an organization which HOPES for so many players to suddenly NOT do what they have historically done.

[Mike de la Hoz]

Very astute, even more realisticx than mine, I would have predicted lower but felt the fear of censorship.

[fsp382]

Back to the optimistic views, 85-77.

[Riverfront]

I'll go along with the 85-77 crowd. Unfortunately I don't think we'll see the playoffs, but it will be a fun season. Maybe they will surprise me.

[PokeyReeseSuPeRsTaR]

74 wins.

[WVRedsFan]

86-76.

This team can hit (even though they have rarely shown it in ST). Pitching will probably falter, but if enough runs are scored...well, you know what happens. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />

[Larkin_isn't_old]

I'll say also 85-77, but i hope for a better record. I don't know why some of you guys are only saying about 60 wins, even with a lot of injury's I don't see that happening.

[Steve4192]

Head says 80-82, heart is hoping for more.

[Puffy]

76-86

Never in my life have I predicted a losing season for the Reds, and I have been doing predictions every preseason for the last 22 years. But you cannot win with Bob Boone as your manager, unless you have the 27 Yankees or the 76 Reds, and unfortunely we don't have either of those teams.

[guernsey]

75-87

[RFS62]

</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Steve4192:
<strong>Head says 80-82, heart is hoping for more.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Pretty much my thoughts exactly.

[Phhhl]

85-77, give or take a win or two. Reds start off hot, have the June swoon, Bowden makes a deadline deal for at least one quality starter in preperation for 2003 and we close out he old ball park in style.

[Ga_Red]

2/09/07

[1990reds]

99-63, dont laugh i predicted 96-66 in 99 of course i wasnt exactly right being the one game playoff.

[texas dave]

reds win, reds win - 73 times. 14 games out by the all-star break. (73-89).

[Stormy]

Without radical move to overhaul the rotation (which is not happening), 67-95

There are no particular areas of strength to any facet of this team. The rotation (which could have been nice with a healthy Williamson, a properly utilized Graves, and high-upside acquisition like a Penny or Armas Jr) will instead be one of the worst Reds rotations in history, and likely the second worst rotation in the NL.

The defense is rather dubious up the middle given Larkin's perpetual injury problems and enormous loss of range/arm strength; given Walker's inauspicious range and abilities; given the temerity with which we will have to watch Griffey make every sharp cut and every time he has to close on a ball at full extension. The defense is solid enough at 3B, RF, C... but some of that is dependent upon JuanE and LaRue hitting enough to keep themselves in the lineup/on the roster, and Boonie avoiding freak injury/illness for the first time in 3 years.

The offense has some bats but is sluggish; is a bit lefty heavy for my taste; lacks any speed to create on the basepaths; is too reliant upon injury riddled players to be deemed reliable; and counts heavily upon a youngster stepping into a role of a top flight producer to compliment Griffey (as every other player on the team could be defined as little more than a #6 type hitter).

The table setting capacities are decent IF Larkin stays healthy and Walker builds upon and duplicates his numbers as a Red last year (which he very well might if not traded or jerked around in the order). However, even the modest table setters lack any speed or basestealing abilities; IF Larkin stays hurt the top of the order goes down the drain as he will be replaced by some 320OBP type at best and Walker can't handle the duties alone; and we would be left with our only 2 proven OBP men being the guys who are supposed to knock the high OBPers in (in Griffey and Dunn) - though Casey might return to 380OBP range again.

Finally, even the ever stalwart bullpen necessary to perpetually rescue the paper tiger rotations, is no longer the class of the division. The Cardinals have much more depth, versatility, lefty reliability, and a hammer to nail the door closed at the end which we lack; and the Astros pen is superior in certain regards as well.

The offense *should* be better merely given the fact that the days of injury mandating a Selby, Sanders, Castro, Larson lineup are hopefully gone. However, it's far from a balanced, powerhouse lineup which blends OBP, power and speed. It has holes from the lack of a leadoff man to the absence of a righty power bat for protection to a lack of adept baserunning to a potential to be undermined by pivotal player's susceptibility to injury. The bench is certainly not the same type which once boasted a Hammonds (or Ochoa), Tucker, Stynes, Tauby type of depth.

All of that is somewhat superfluous as, barring injury, the offensive, defensive, and relief facets of the team should be solid enough to be a respectable 500 type team, if they had a solid starting rotation. However, what they have is the most depressing rotation to ponder in recent memory, and in the end that will put the Reds out of their misery FAR before any of their other abilities have a chance to redeem or undermine them.

[Candy Cummings]

70-92.

[Reds1]

60-102 - Won't happen

Reasons:

1. You have not heard the last from JR's knee. HE WILL PLAY THROUGH IT!

2. You have not heard the last from Larkin's mesh. MAYBE ON THIS BOARD, BUT HE WILL PLAY

3. You have not heard the last from Casey's back.
THAT'S NOT EVEN A BIG DEAL - CAME BACK NEXT DAY AND HIT THE BALL
4. You have not heard the last from Reitsma's elbow. PROBABLY RIGHT HERE, BUT I HOPE HE FIGHTS THROUGH IT.

5. Acevedo will be just plain bad (soon people will be making the excuse that he has hardly pitched in the minors and was rushed, which is actually true). HE WILL BE HOT AND COLD AND NOT JUST "PLAIN BAD" HE WILL HIT HIS CONFIDENCE AND GO ON A 5 GAME WINNING STREAK

6. Haynes will be the same awful pitcher he has always been. 500 PITCHER ON MILWALKEE WITH AN ERA UNDER 5! HE SHOULD PROBABLY MOVE UP TO BE OUR 3RD PITCHER. HE WILL SURPRISE - EAT INNINGS, AND BE A HUGE FACTOR... MY VOTE FOR PARRIS OF 99

7. Clark will get 500 AB's filling in for JR and Juan (because JR will be hurt and Encarnacion will be hitting .211 with 2 strike outs a game).
LOL! WILL NEVER BE THE MAN!
8. LaRue will hit .185 (like another great defensive catcher named Johnson). 247 BA THIS YEAR! BEING HE WILL HIT 8TH AND BE THE BEST DEFENSIVE CATCHER I WILL TAKE IT.

9. Sullivan will finally blow up his rubber arm.
NO REASON FOR THIS. HE'S NOT EVEN HURT
10. Graves' ERA will be 4.50. WRONG AGAIN. GRAVES WILL BE UNDER 4

FORGOT TO MENTION DUNN'S 42 HRS, CASEY HITS 32, AND JUAN EN - DOES A GREAT RENDITION OF GREG VAUGHN. LOL

GO REDS

[jtc24]

75-87

[indy_dave00]

Without any moves 71-91... NO STARTING pitching means very few wins.

Best hope is in late May ,early June Ty Howington and Austin Kearns arrive and give hope for 2003.

[GriffeyFan]

83-79

[KySteveH]

102-60. Laugh all you like!

[fielder's choice]

70 wins

[KYRedsFan]

85 wins, Jr. hits 50, Dunn 40, and we have a 15 game winner on the roster at the end of the year

[Eric]

73-89

[alloverjr]

76-86. The starting pitching as echoed by many in the off-season will be bad. Maybe not the most horrendous rotation of all time, but not ML caliber. No real news here. However, I think the offense will be a lot weaker than many think. No bench and a starting 8 that will play together no more than 75 games due to injuries will see to that.

I'll watch the youngsters hopefully develop and mature this season, in hopes that they along with increased revenue will make 2003 exciting.

[IslandRed]

75-87, while hoping some of the pitching pans out and we at least hang in the wild-card race until late.

[MWM]

70-92

[geo_j]

92-70

To Mike and to Red in LA. You say that the reds are counting on players to overcome their track record?

Your prediction flys in the face of track records.

Sullivan Arm will blowup. What makes you think that? I have seen no indication of this. Most side armers have long durable careers.

Griffey has a long track record of playing most games.

Larkin's track record is that of a near hall of famer.

Casey is a career 310 plus hitter.

right now the Reds are tied for first isnt it better to root them on then to predict doom?

[RedsBaron]

81-81, with a strong second half, after Bob Boone is let go. I really don't know, but my worst case prediction is 76-86 and my best case is 86-76, so I split the difference.

[Red Hot Reds]

88-74

[Krusty]

I'll go with GriffeyFan and say 83-79 also. The Reds will have a horrible first half before elevating kids like Kearns, Dawkins, Howington, Armaboles and Reith to fulltime duty. <img border="0" alt="[Pimpin]" title="" src="graemlins/pimp.gif" />

[volzok]

I am going to go with the 92-70 crowd and here is why. This yr has been a year of destiny for certain teams. Patriots, Indiana, all ring a bell to me. A bell that this will be an unbelievable season for the Reds. Maybe not title, but more fun than any off us can imagine.

<img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />

[RedRoser]

82-80, but Hope Springs Eternal. . .

---'Roser

[oregonred]

2002 Record: 76-86

Boone Starting Lineup Changes: 119

[red-in-la]

Reds1 and geo_j. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

As to JR, until I heard the knee thing, him having health problems was the furthest thing from my mind. But first you hear that he twists his knee, then you hear that he has been bothered by tendonitis in that knee for the whole ST. JR is not a top performer when he cannot run or shift his weight during his swing. He may play through it. But will he be an All-Century player?

I threw in Sullivan because there has NOT been a relief pitcher who pitched 500 innings in 5 years since they kept the records. And with Boone as the manager and this rotation, Sully will have to pitch 100 inning plus again this year to be anything less than a disappointment.

And Reds1, if one more poster predicts wonderful things for Larkin even as he hurts and hurts and DL's, I think I will lose it.

As to the rest of my points....their track record speaks for itself. Casey will not be the first "big man" who struggles because of a bad back. Haynes career record with Milwaukee is 20-30 with a 5 plus ERA. Geeesh. Look these things up before you post.

Acevedo was 5-7 with a 5.44 ERA last year for gosh sakes. He has NO track record that shows he will be any better this year. Not saying he cannot be, but come on.

As for Dunn and Casey totaling 76 HR's...LOL. I hope you are right.

And Graves' ERA last season was 4.14. He needs lots of save opportunities to keep his sinker working, and on this staff, his opportunities will be few and far between. Result, look the ERA to keep climbing.

[letsgojunior]

Jr is fine -- as I recall he played through a Baker cyst (leakage of synovial fluid in the knee) for the majority of the '99 season and hit 48 homers and drove in 134 runs. Besides, he has had two days to do nothing but rest and ice his knee, and after Monday there will an off-day on Tuesday. He can also rest and get treatment on the knee before and after games.

[Falls City Beer]

74-88--fourth in division. Conservative, but realistic.

[letsgojunior]

I'll reverse that and go with 88-74... Hey, I can be unrealistically optimistic can't I?? <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />

[red-in-la]

OK, you got the first two games covered for JR's knee. What about the reamining 160?

[letsgojunior]

If he stayed in the game after it happened, and then fully participated in today's workout, how bad can it be?? As I mentioned before, he has played up to his All-Century level with knee and wrist problems. I remember reading his biography and it said that after he broke his wrist in 1995, the next season he played anywhere from 60-80%. I think he drove in like 140 that year. If two games into the season, he starts complaining about it, I will be concerned. However, all signs point to it not being a big deal at all.

[smallbattle]

I'm with geo.

[remdog]

Reds go 81-80. The Reds start slow but get hot from mid-June to mid-August. Then, since the fans didn't come out, there's no money to add a 'Guzman' at the trading deadline. Ergo, since the Reds aren't in the WC chase, the one game that's rained out in Sept. isn't replayed and that's why the Reds only play 161 games this year. The good news is that the Reds lay solid groundwork for '03 with big strides forward by Howington, Darnell and, surprisingly, Jose Rijo.

Gookie Dawkins shows that he's ready defensively and, surprise surprise, actually shows that he can hit .275 with an OBP of .370.

By May 15, Fred-in-LA once again disavows the Reds and swears that he'll never post here again (to rousing cheers). This year he will attach his star to the Expos and be thoroughly dismayed when, at the All-Star break, the 'Spos move to Fred's hometown, Huntington Beach (geography isn't Fred's strong suit), and he's actually obligated to support them. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />

All in all, a fun season with a lot of good signs pointing to '03.

Rem

[Eric_Davis]

As the roster now stands, 70-92.

If they get Gagne, Daal, Ponson, or Erickson, then 78-84.

[red-in-la]

Thanks for the fine and intelligent personal attack remdog...I knew I could depend upon you. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" />

[Marty and Joe]

I'm with 'Roser, 82-80.

[bucksfan]

Chasing 80 wins is what I think is realistic outlook. Though generally an optimist, I would see 80 wins as even an optimistic prediction right now. However, that will not dampen my enthusiasm for the season.

[RedTiger]

64-98

[Johnny Footstool]

81-81, with a 3-game swing in either direction.

Reasons:

-The pitching is not good, but it will be significantly better than last year's mess. Hamilton will regain his form and take pressure off Reitsma and Acevedo. Haynes will fix his mechanics enough to reach .500. The bullpen will stay strong.

-The offense will also be significantly better than last year. Larkin will be coddled and will end up with about 500 ABs, Griffey will stay healthy and have a monster year. OPB will be provided by Walker, Larkin, Dunn, Griffey, and Casey; SLG will come from Dunn, Griffey, Boone, and Encarnacion, and maybe the newly-muscled Casey. Griffey, Larkin, Dunn, Boone, and Encarnacion will provide plenty of speed on the basepaths, though not necessarily in the form of SBs.

-Bob Boone will be Bob Boone, but with the regulars in good health, he won't feel as compelled to make quite as many unnecessary switches.

[REDREAD]

62-100

Reasons: Dessens has me worried. He and Lance Davis had surprising productive seasons last year.
I never expected Lance to be good this year, but Dessens' poor spring has me worried. Joey Hamilton is our opening day starter for crying out loud.

Replacing Dimitri with Juan E will offset the improvement the offense will have with hopefully improved health.

It's going to be a long season, unless the 3 retread starters pull a miracle.

[RedsFan74]

75-87 <img border="0" title="" alt="[Frown]" src="frown.gif" />

[MaineRedsFan]

85-77

To those of you predicting below 66 wins, how can you possibly think the Reds will do worse this year than last? Unless you are in the business of predicting injuries, I don't see how you could possibly think a team with Griffey, Dunn, Boone and Casey in the middle of the order is going to lose 100 games.

[REDREAD]

Maine,

I predicted 100 losses, but it will probably not be quite that bad. But I see 90-100 losses easy.

As I stated above, replacing Dimitri with Juan hurts. Dimtri wasn't a superstar, but JuanE is not even average.

I was never sold on Lance Davis who had a great season last year, and I'm worried about Dessens, who I was hopeful for. Maybe some of the retreads can help backfill this, but both Dessens and Davis had very productive years in 2001.

While I don't expect the injures to be as severe as last year, we will undoubtably have some injuries, and we have absolutely zero quality depth. There's no Tuckers or Stynes to fill in.
Any injury (except catcher and maybe 1b) is going to be a severe blow.

But I hope things go well and we get less than 90 losses.

[WebScorpion]

After consulting the crystal ball, I've determined that the 2002 Cincinnati Reds will go 95-67 and make the post season!!

Put this puppy in the archives 'cause the spirit of Grandpa Scorp says I'm dead on! Grandpa was the greatest prognosticator I've ever known.

95-67. You can take that to the bank <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />

[VR]

Scorp, I appreciate your optimism, but ANYBODY can nail the answer AFTER the Reds won today. sheesh :)

[MaineRedsFan]

</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by REDREAD:
[QB]While I don't expect the injures to be as severe as last year, we will undoubtably have some injuries, and we have absolutely zero quality depth. There's no Tuckers or Stynes to fill in. Any injury (except catcher and maybe 1b) is going to be a severe blow.[QB]</font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I agree that most any injury is going to affect this team but I don't buy into the theory that there are no Tuckers or Stynes' on the team.

IMO, Brady Clark brings a lot more to the team than Tuck and Wilton Guerrero can do most of the things that Stynes can do. Guerrero is not great but neither is Stynes. Obviously our bench is not anything spectacular and if they have to be counted on we will be in trouble but I do not think one of the main reasons for an unsuccessful season is going to be the lack of Chris Stynes or Michael Tucker. Tuck was here last year and he was hardly a saving grace when the injury bug started to fly.

As for the pitching, it can't be any worse than it was last year, so I do not see any way possible this team losses 100 games.

[wolfwolfwolf]

I say 79-83. The every day lineup and bullpen is as good as the optimists think they are, and the starting pitching is almost as bad as the pessimists think it is.

[ws75reds]

86 Wins :cool:

[Raisor]

75-87

The pitching just isn't there.

My beloved Mariners proved year after year that you can score a ton of runs and still finish under .500

PSR

[Boss-Hog]

73-89

[REDREAD]

Well Maine,
You are right that Guerrero and Clark are potentially good bench assets. I'm not as confident in Clark as you are, but he's a pretty good bench player, especially on our budget.

I guess my point is that if we have an injury anywhere but catcher, we are going to take a huge hit.

I agree that Tucker had a down year for us last year. I should've phrased that a bit better. In 1999, when Vaughn got hurt, Tucker and Hammond filled in great and we didn't miss a beat. Stynes covered 3b great for us at the end of 2000 -- although Stynes has had bad years off the bench too, I like him better than Wilton.

I just wish Dawkins had panned out. Also, although we supposedly have a surplus of OF, after Dunn and Jr, we are going to get nothing out of them this year. I really wish Mateo or Kearns had won the job and JuanE was the 4th OF.

I guess I'd feel a lot better if we had another solid OF and infielder.. Clark and Wilton may fill those shoes, but I'm not as optimistic about it. Hope I'm wrong.

[Chip R]

86-76