Dunn And His Long Term Contract

[RedLegSuperStar]

Alright, The Cincinnati Enquire Reported The Dan O Brien Said The 1st Order Of Business For The New Year Is To Sign Dunn Long Term. Here It Is Friday The 13th And Still No Contract. Instead They Have Focused On Rich Aurilia, Frank Menechino, Steve Torrealba, Rob Stratton, Grant Belfour, And Stated That Coffey/Weathers/Mercker/Hammonds Will All Have Chances To Save Games. This Is Frustrating As A Fan To See Your 1st Baseman Dealt For A Cash Saver To Clear Up The 4 OF Situation By Placing Dunn At 1st. And Then Not Signing Him To A Long Contract. He Has Said Plenty Of Times He Wants To Be A Red, But If You Keep Piddling Around He Isn't Going To Joke About Wanting To Go Elsewhere Like Last Year With Houston. I Wish Someone In This Organization Spoke The Truth.. We Were Promised A Winning Ball Club If We Forked Over The Money For The Stadium.. Never Happened. Then We Have Our Fire-Sale To And Begin Our Rebuilding System Which Requires Us To Sign A Squad Of 34-35 Year Olds In Randa, Weathers, Mercker, And Aurilia. On Top Of That Our Farm System Hasn't Improved Since Dan O Took Over.. It Has Actually Got Worse According To The Records. So This Offseason We Have Traded Casey For Williams, Prospects (Who Weren't Tendered.. I Know) For Womack, And Signed A Tommy John Recoveree, And Cut Hancock Who Is Better Than Bong, Simpson, Nelson, And Burns Who Are All On The 40 Man Roster. Oh.. Don't Let Me Leave Out Mr. Freel. This Guy Maybe A Hustler, But This Guy Has Issues With Alcohol.. And This Being His 2nd Offense Should Be One To Many And Be Removed From This Club. Same Goes For Bubba.. Cause Come Spring Training You Know He Is Going To Get Hammered And Get Busted.. It Has Happened The Past 2 Seasons. The New Owners Have A Plate Full In Front Of Them And Hopefully They Have The Knowledge To Right This Organization And Set A Plan That Should Of Been Inforced Years Ago. Wow! Tons Of Credit Goes Out To Anyone Who Reads This! I Just Needed To Vent.. I Got Screwed On An eBay Deal!

[Strikes Out Looking]

Whoa! Take a breath, step away from the ledge. It'll be alright.

[CincyFalcon]

I think everyone agrees this needs to be done as a first order of business...Before he plays himself out of our market...I saw the D-Backs signed Webb to an extension through 2009 and every other team in the league chooses to sign young talent, why not the Reds??? Once players are signed for the long term other free agents(pitching) will realize that the ownership is serious about winning not rebuilding....

[pedro]

No long term contracts are going to be signed until the new ownership takes over and frankly I don't expect DanO to be around very long to have the chance to offer one to Dunn.

[RedLegSuperStar]

No long term contracts are going to be signed until the new ownership takes over and frankly I don't expect DanO to be around very long to have the chance to offer one to Dunn.

Pedro.. I Hope Not.. I Can't Recall A Good Sign, Trade, Deal, ETC He Has Made...

[flyer85]

I think at this point the Reds have screwed around too long. He should have been signed 2 years ago. Now the price gets driven higher by the deals signed again this off-season and with the dearth of upcoming free agents I really think there is no incentive for Dunn to sign at this point because the security angle is gone. With what he made last year and what he would get in arbitration this year he is already cashing in. I am not a pessimist at heart but I don't see Dunn signing a LT deal.

[pedro]

I think at this point the Reds have screwed around too long. He should have been signed 2 years ago. Now the price gets driven higher by the deals signed again this off-season and with the dearth of upcoming free agents I really think there is no incentive for Dunn to sign at this point because the security angle is gone. With what he made last year and what he would get in arbitration this year he is already cashing in. I am not a pessimist at heart but I don't see Dunn signing a LT deal.

If this was football, where contracts can be voided if a player is cut I might agree with you, but since baseball contracts are guaranteed, I think there is a good chance that the Reds could still get Dunn to sign a LTC if they offer him one prior to the start of this season. IMO it's hard to turn down a guaranteed 50-60 million when you know that you could get hurt and never have a chance to get that money again. Look at Nomar, he turned down 140 million. Think he regrets that now? I bet he does.

[Caveat Emperor]

Pedro.. I Hope Not.. I Can't Recall A Good Sign, Trade, Deal, ETC He Has Made...

Not to nitpick -- but capitalizing every word you type makes your writing really difficult to read.

[KronoRed]

Why offer Dunn long term when he's obviously not the type of player Dan O and Narron want, they want old guys who ground out a lot.

[Astrobuddy]

Didnt Dunn file for Arbitration? What do you guys think he will get?


Dunn is coming into what many feel are the prime years for a baseball player 27-32. I doubt he wants to make a ton of money and waste away on a team that never makes the playoffs. I would imagine that he will want to see a commitment from the Reds that they will not spend all their money on him and not be able to improve the team. Regardless of what many think, these ballplayers want to win.

[westofyou]

I doubt he wants to make a ton of money and waste away on a team that never makes the playoffs.Then he should avoid Houston... definitly by the time he's 30 they'll be in last eh?

[MattyHo4Life]

Then he should avoid Houston... definitly by the time he's 30 they'll be in last eh?

I doubt that. The Astros will spend what it takes to keep them in contention.

[westofyou]

I doubt that. The Astros will spend what it takes to keep them in contention.
Well if they don't maybe I'll go over to their board and drop little insult bombs.

[Astrobuddy]

I doubt the Astros will be in last for a LONG time. They still have a core of young players and a good farm system. Next season all hell will break lose and after the 2007 season it only gets better financially. The Astros will have a ton of money to spend in the next 2 off seasons, unlike the Cards who have HUGE contract that start getting bigger in the next 2 season with no real farm system.

[MattyHo4Life]

Well if they don't maybe I'll go over to their board and drop little insult bombs.

Do you want their web address? ;)

[westofyou]

Do you want their web address? ;)
Looks like YOU might want to save it. ;)

[alexad]

I honestly believe the new ownership has told the current staff to stay away from Dunn and let them handle it when they get on board. I also think they may have talked to Dunn and told him this will be all worked out when they get on board. We have not heard much about Dunn at all this winter regarding a long term contract.

I think the new ownership will get him signed and build this team around Dunn. This will be Adam Dunn's team for the next 10 years.

This might very well be the first thing they do when they get in the doors. This would be a tremendous splash for them and prove that they are serious about taking over this team and building.

[Bobcat J]

This might very well be the first thing they do when they get in the doors. This would be a tremendous splash for them and prove that they are serious about taking over this team and building.

I agree that it would be a nice way to get off on the right foot. I just don't want to hear all of the local sports guys like McAllister complaining about strike outs, trading a "good" .300 hitter like Casey, and whatnot.

[ochre]

Not to nitpick -- but capitalizing every word you type makes your writing really difficult to read.
Probably was all caps. I think the board changes that to just the first letter of each word as a shouting filter.

[MattyHo4Life]

Looks like YOU might want to save it. ;)

I doubt it... I don't think I've posted on that forum for about a year now.

[westofyou]

I doubt it... I don't think I've posted on that forum for about a year now.
Yeah but he's pointing his water pistol at your team now:


unlike the Cards who have HUGE contract that start getting bigger in the next 2 season with no real farm system.:laugh: :laugh:

[MattyHo4Life]

AstrosBuddy has been saying that stuff on everywhere, including our board for years. If he wants to believe it, I'm not going to argue with him about it anymore. I gave up that fight long ago. lol

[Astrobuddy]

I do believe the Astros are the reigning NL Champs Matty. In fact , your memory will remind you they won it in the last game at Busch II by beating the Cards.

[pedro]

I do believe the Astros are the reigning NL Champs Matty. In fact , your memory will remind you they won it in the last game at Busch II by beating the Cards.

took them long enough. good luck getting back there anytime soon.:p:

[Astrobuddy]

Did you think they would be there last season? I bet you the far they finish with a better record than the Reds for the next decade.

[pedro]

Did you think they would be there last season? I bet you the far they finish with a better record than the Reds for the next decade.

Yeah I did, but I don't think it'll last. They're getting older, not better. They might have a chance next year, but I doubt it.

As for how they'll match up against the Reds for the next decade, that's a sucker bet right now. The Reds are a mess.

[westofyou]

Did you think they would be there last season? I bet you the far they finish with a better record than the Reds for the next decade.
Oh yeah... my dad could whoop your dad's rear.

So there!

[Astrobuddy]

pedro.. how old are they getting?

1st-Berkman 29
2nd- Biggio 40, Burke 25
3rd- Ensberg 30
SS- Everett 28
RF- Lane 29
CF- Willy 25
LF- Wilson 31
C - Ausmus 36, Quintero 26

Oswalt 28
Pettitte 33
Backe 27
Zeke 27
Wandy 26

Wheeler 28
Qualls 27
Lidge 29

Yea.. thats an old team. pedro.. try and know the facts and not just listen to the popular Astro hating spin. Other than Biggio, Bagwell ( who wont play) Ausmus and Clemens this team is not OLD and there are plenty of replacements in the minors that will be ready in a couple of years. ALSO the Astros arent afraid of the FA market and will have a TON of money in the 2006 and 2007 off seasons. They will remain a very good team because the owner wants them to be and will spend the money to make that happen. This isnt your 70's or 80's Astros anymore.

[RFS62]

Yeah, but they still have to live in Texas.

[Astrobuddy]

What does that mean??

[RFS62]

It was a childish insult. Surprised you didn't recognize that.

[pedro]

pedro.. how old are they getting?

1st-Berkman 29
2nd- Biggio 40, Burke 25
3rd- Ensberg 30
SS- Everett 28
RF- Lane 29
CF- Willy 25
LF- Wilson 31
C - Ausmus 36, Quintero 26

Oswalt 28
Pettitte 33
Backe 27
Zeke 27
Wandy 26

Wheeler 28
Qualls 27
Lidge 29

Yea.. thats an old team. pedro.. try and know the facts and not just listen to the popular Astro hating spin. Other than Biggio, Bagwell ( who wont play) Ausmus and Clemens this team is not OLD and there are plenty of replacements in the minors that will be ready in a couple of years. ALSO the Astros arent afraid of the FA market and will have a TON of money in the 2006 and 2007 off seasons. They will remain a very good team because the owner wants them to be and will spend the money to make that happen. This isnt your 70's or 80's Astros anymore.


I don't hate the astros, I'm just not as impressed with some of their players as you are. FTR, I was rooting for them in the series.

You're the one who seems to want to come around here and puff out your chest. So the Astros finally got the the series after 43 years! Whoop di woo! If they can keep it up good for them. But quit acting like it's a done deal. It's not.

[Astrobuddy]

Who is acting like its a done deal or puffing out their chest? I just said they wouldnt be the Royals all of a sudden. I actually dont expect them to get there again this season, but I think they have a chance.

[Jpup]

Who is acting like its a done deal or puffing out their chest? I just said they wouldnt be the Royals all of a sudden. I actually dont expect them to get there again this season, but I think they have a chance.

well, every team has a chance. :D

[KronoRed]

The D-Rays don't ;)

[Astrobuddy]

True.. some more than others though.

[Heath]

The D-Rays don't ;)

Don't count out the Pirates...

BTW - As Roger Clemens goes, so go the Astros, IMO. Also, Drayton McLane has cried poor for the last few years. One would wonder how much longer the $$ keeps going. I mean, some of those guys need to be taking Social Security in the next few years.

Plus, I don't think the Astros can re-live what happened last year. Too many career years that suddenly went silent in the Series. It seemed like Cinderella's ball ended on the way to Chicago.

[Astrobuddy]

Oh man.. ok, I will try this one more time for those of you that are obviously on the Kentucky side of the River.

Biggio, Bagwell and Ausmus.... Thats it Heath. No one else is even close to Social Security.

Clemens is important, but he isnt the Astros can win without him. I have every faith that he will return in May. But even if he doesnt this team can win.

As far as career years go.. I dont know anyone but Ensberg that had a career year. The rest of the team played below average offensively.

[westofyou]

Oh man.. ok, I will try this one more time for those of you that are obviously on the Kentucky side of the River. That's nice....

[Falls City Beer]

That's nice....

Hey, he is the Astrobuddy.

[westofyou]

Hey, he is the Astrobuddy.From the land of country clubs New Caney, Texas... dissing on the party side of the river... damn....

[MattyHo4Life]

I do believe the Astros are the reigning NL Champs Matty. In fact , your memory will remind you they won it in the last game at Busch II by beating the Cards.

Did I ever deny that fact? I didn't even say anything negative about the Astros. I actually defended them by saying that they would pay what it took to keep them in contention. You bash my team by saying they're the old team without even proving it, and you act like I'm the one that's bashing your team.

[RFS62]

We welcome fans from other teams. MattyMo is a valued and respected member of the board.

That doesn't mean you can come into our living room and pee on the carpet.

Personally, I rooted for the 'Stros in the series last year.

But if I was a fan of a team that made it to the World Series once in 45 years and got their clock cleaned then, I doubt that I'd be running around other team's boards acting all bad and stuff.

[Astrobuddy]

Matty.... I never said the Cards were old. I said they have contract issue with all that top of the line talent. Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter, Edmonds etc ...

Go back and read. I wasnt dising you team. I was stating a financial fact.

[MattyHo4Life]

Matty.... I never said the Cards were old. I said they have contract issue with all that top of the line talent. Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter, Edmonds etc ...

Go back and read. I wasnt dising you team. I was stating a financial fact.

Ok...you said the Cardinals will have financial issues in a couple of years. I don't think that's a fact. This is the last guaranteed year of Edmond's contract. He has a club option for 2007, and I doubt Edmonds will be playing after 2007 (assuming his option will be picked up). Why did you mention Carpenter's name when discussing financial issues? Carpenter is signed for the next 2 or 3 years for less than 7Mil per season. Yes... Pujols nd Rolen are signed to big deals for several years, but they are in the minority. I doubt the Cardinals would have made a $10 Mil offer to AJ Burnett a couple of months ago if they were looking at financial problems.

[Heath]

Oh man.. ok, I will try this one more time for those of you that are obviously on the Kentucky side of the River.

obviously you failed geography. I'm on the Ohio side of the river. :D


Biggio, Bagwell and Ausmus.... Thats it Heath. No one else is even close to Social Security.

So, that's umm...like your heart and soul of your team.


Clemens is important, but he isnt the Astros can win without him. I have every faith that he will return in May. But even if he doesnt this team can win.

I disagree. I think Pettitte is lost without him. I think Brad Lidge is going to have shell-shock issues until the All-star break. Roy Oswalt throws hard and one bad pitch and his arm is shot. If you are also thinking the Wandy Rodriguez is the answer, I'm not sure I want to know the question.


As far as career years go.. I dont know anyone but Ensberg that had a career year. The rest of the team played below average offensively.

Tavares played better in the majors than he did in the minors. Jason Lane finally hit someone else besides Reds pitching. Berkman's going to start to be pitched around after they realize how much Preston Wilson's gonna strike out.

I think the worse thing that happened to Astros was getting swept in the Series. Now, you've got Bagwell issues, because like every other veteran superstar, he isn't sure if he wants to retire.

BTW - the Cardinals still are the team to beat. IMO.

[pedro]

Astrobuddy,

Don't forget, you're on the Kentucky side of the river yourself.

[Astrobuddy]

Biggio, Bagwell and Ausmus are no longer the heart and soul of the Astros.

Bagwell will either play and contribute or he will retire. Its that simple.

Biggio is still a

Yea, I guess you are right.. Pettitte and Oswalt suck.

Ignorant fans have been saying that about Oswalt for years and his arm hasnt come off yet. He will get his 18-20 wins with a sub 3.50 ERA like he does every year. Get used to it. You will be getting beat by Oswalt for years and years to come.

Pettitte is LOST without Clemens??? Based on what? I guess when Dunn and Learns are no longer playing together Dunn will fall apart.

Berkman has had a pretty good career without having anyone behind him. They will pitch to him and he will get his numbers.

Wilson will strikeout just like Adam Dunn does but not hit as many homers or walk as much , but with a few more Sac flies, either way he will be productive if he stays healthy.

I actually kinda agree with you on Lidge, except that IF he has good outings early all will be forgotten.

I also agree with you on the Cards being the team to beat in the division. But thats on paper and right now. The Astros are done dealing and the Cards are pretty set. That can change. The Astros arent that far behind the Cards, but they are the reigning NL Champs and until they are beaten they are the Favorites IMO.

[Astrobuddy]

pedro.. funny stuff and you are correct. Some people just dont have a sense of humor. YOU apparently do. It is refreshing.

[smith288]

I think pedro's funny and I am a conservative. :D

[RFS62]

I think pedro's funny and I am a conservative. :D



He is a pretty funny guy. And now he's made a new buddy.

:beerme:

[KronoRed]

Oh man.. ok, I will try this one more time for those of you that are obviously on the Kentucky side of the River.

Cute.

[westofyou]

pedro.. funny stuff and you are correct. Some people just dont have a sense of humor. YOU apparently do. It is refreshing.
My dad could kick Pedro's dad's rear too.

[RFS62]

My dad could kick Pedro's dad's rear too.



He must be very flexible.

[Heath]

He must be very flexible.

Something was mentioned about Gumby...... :D

[Heath]

Cute.

C'mon Krono you can do better :D

[KronoRed]

C'mon Krono you can do better :D
Nah, I'm from Kentucky you know..we're all slow and dumb apparently ;)

[Scrap Irony]

Houston has only to wait for Dunn to take the major league minimum salary as a free agent in his triumphant return to his home town state.

Because everyone wants to go home again, right?

Right, Astrobuddy?

Right?

_______________________

As to age, Biggio and Bagwell, if healthy and signed, will play. Period. Garner starts his veterans. If Bagwell does intend to hang it up, your Astros have:

Tavares CF
Career year? Possibly. Never hit that well in the minor leagues. Perhaps he finally "gets it", but history is littered with fleet phenoms who refuse to walk and have one good year finding holes with punch and judy bats. (Hell, the Reds have one of those on their roster right now in Tony Womack.)

Lane RF
An injury risk that hits well at home and poorly on the road. (298/886 v. 239/750.) Some pop, some speed (though that has diminished with injuries). Oh, and did I mention his career 327 OBP?

Biggio/ Burke 2B
Great player with a solid season, but his 2004 looked bad. He's on the wrong side of 40. How much longer does he have? If not Biggio, the 'Stros have Chris Burke, who I happen to like. However, he's also from the wrong side of the river and is apparently too stupid to ever play baseball for a fine, fine team like your Astros. Too, it's not like he's lit the world on fire (and he's had ample oppotunity) in the major leagues.

Morgan Ensberg 3B
Yeah, Ken Caminiti had a career year, too. What of it? Great year. Very. very poor in the playoffs. He's never been close to that kind of year before. Can he repeat? Perhaps. Smart money isn't on it.

Lance Berkman
Solid All Star level player with an injury past. He's by far the best hitter on a poorly constructed offensive team. Not only are the injuries worrisome, but you will also see, as the Astros come back to earth, pitchers pitch around him. This could lead to struggling.

Preston Wilson LF
He's not horrid, but if Wilson is a centerpiece of your offensive strategy (and he is in Houston land), then you're in trouble. In the bandbox that is Minute Maid, he'll still hit a fairly high number of dingers, but his OBP will continue to drop. And it's extremely low (325) already.

Brad Ausmus C
Ausmus is a fine catcher and a black hole offensively. And he's getting old. Not a good combination for a guy with a rather large two-year contract.

Adam Everett SS
He's another punch and judy hitter (though with better pop than either Ausmus or Tavares) with one good offensive season. His glove is truly outstanding, but his bat is very poor.

If you're counting with me at home (those in Houston may need to take off their shoes at this point), that's three very poor offensive players, two more with OBP questions, two with injury concerns, two with age concerns, and two with career year concerns.

That, in short, is a lot.

As for the pitching, let's assume both both Oswalt and Pettite make it through the season without injury. (I know that hasn't happened yet, but bear with me.) Backe as a third starter is not more than adequate and there are two huge question marks at the back end of the rotation. (Granted, I'd take the Astro starting staff over Cincinnati's every day for an eternity, but that's another post. For today, I'm covering the questions of the Astros.)

As for the pen, Lidge's complete meltdown in the offseason is more than worrisome. He imploded. Donnie Moore, Mitch Williams imploded. Can you tell me what happened the year after each of those stalwart closers (both were All Stars in their respective years) blew up? Both pitched horribly. Beyond horribly. Can Lidge come back? It's certainly not a sure thing at this point.

As for the other relievers, yes, they had fine years. Most teams that go to the playoffs have fine bullpens in place. Houston's pen enjoyed career years by no less than five players. Even if half come back down to earth, that means the pen is verage at best.

Questions? You bet there are. Of course, I am from Kentucky and what do we really know about anything anyway?

[Astrobuddy]

Scraps.. all I can say is "wow". But basically, what you wrote is S crap)

Dunn isnt signing anywhere for the league minimum. But nice try at humor.

Here is a list of your mistakes..

1) Bagwell will not play and take up a roster spot. He is done.

2) Willy T has hit that good in the minors. In fact he skipped AAA. He will get better ans learn to manage the strike zone better. It was not a career year. It was just his 1st.

3) Jason Lane.. INJURIES?? Based on what??? 2005 was his 1st full season in the bigs but not because of injuries.

4) Biggio didnt have a bad year and 2005 was Burke's 1st full year in the Bigs. Whre did he get his ample opportunity in the majors?

5) Ensberg... Late bloomer that is the real deal. Had a wrist injury in the playoffs that effected his swing.

6) Berkman.. has never NEVER had an injury past, DO YOU JUST MAKE THIS CRAP UP? He is not just a solid All-Star, he is forging towards a HOF career. Top 5 hitter in the NL.

7) Wilson.. hitting in an offensive ballpark , but his OBP will go down? I doubt it. He aint Pujols, but he will hit .270, 30, 90-100 with a .350 OBP. Thats just fine and an offensive upgrade no doubt. Here is the guy with an injury concern and you dont even mention it. UNREAL.

8) Ausmus... great pitcher's catcher. Ausmus was signed for 1 reason, Clemens.

9) Everett... Not a punch and judy hitter at all. He just doesnt hit. When he does he hits for doubles.

If YOU are counting at home you will see that Pitching and Defense win. The Astros have both and the offense will be better than 2005 when they won the NL pennant. The Reds have offense but NO pitching or defense.

Oswalt and Pettitte made it thru the 2005 season without injury. Pettitte's elbow is fine and Oswalts hamstring is fixed. No worries.

The bullpen is one of the best, although Lidge is a question. How will he handle it? We are all 2 months away from finding out.

Questions... yep.. every single team in MLB has em and always have. Some less than others. The Astros will once again be one of the best 5 teams in MLB. Can you say that about the Reds?

I wonder if you just sat down and made all that crap up or do you really believe it ? Either way, that was just sad and showed no real effort at trying to keep from looking like a very un-intelligent fan.

[pedro]

You're really pushing your luck Astrobuddy. I'd tone it down a little if I were you.

[Astrobuddy]

I correct a poster who posts incorrect info and I am pushing my luck?

Please explain....

[Scrap Irony]

1) Bagwell will not play and take up a roster spot. He is done.

According to whom? Is there a secret Astro fairy that tells you these things? There's been nothing on any AP Wire or on the reputable internet sites that states unequivacably Bags is retiring. Is this wishful thinking?


2) Willy T has hit that good in the minors. In fact he skipped AAA. He will get better ans learn to manage the strike zone better. It was not a career year. It was just his 1st.

Again, are you receiving information from a higher power? Typically, athletes are either hackers or they're not. The only person over the past 20 years to have significantly improved plate discipline while playing the majors has been Sammy Sosa. Can Tavares do it? Sure, he could. Will he? History says unlikely.


3) Jason Lane.. INJURIES?? Based on what??? 2005 was his 1st full season in the bigs but not because of injuries.

In 2003 and 2004, Lane played a total of 196 games. He hit well, but only saw action in just over 2/3 of the total games played. Why? Well, it wasn't because the Astros didn't like him. And it wasn't because there was somebody in front of him either. He was hurt. Both seasons. Last season, Lane played in 145 games, the most he has ever played. Injuries two out of three years means he has shown a propensity for getting injured. He's a fine hitter, sure. But he's been injured. Twice.


4) Biggio didnt have a bad year and 2005 was Burke's 1st full year in the Bigs. Whre did he get his ample opportunity in the majors?

Read my post again. I said Biggio had a fine 2005, but his 2004 season left something to be desired. Is that 2004 a one-year aberration or is it a harbinger of things to come? He's old-- 40+-- and his best days are behind him.

As to Burke, yes, he struggled in his ample time in the majors. 318 at-bats in the major leagues is a bunch. He hit less than 250 in a home ballpark that favors hitters significantly. I still like him as a player (in fact, he's one of my favorite players at the moment, as he's a local kid who's done well), but he's had ample opportunity to shine. That he hasn't should be troublesome to you, an Astro fan.


5) Ensberg... Late bloomer that is the real deal. Had a wrist injury in the playoffs that effected his swing.

Late bloomer based on what? Again using that higher power? Ensberg's minor league numbers are good. His major league numbers, up until last season, were decent. Last season, he eclipsed his HR totals before the All Star break. That is a career year. By definition. Can he do it again? History says it's extremely unlikely. Will he? Sure, again, it's possible. Banking on it is problematic.


6) Berkman.. has never NEVER had an injury past, DO YOU JUST MAKE THIS CRAP UP? He is not just a solid All-Star, he is forging towards a HOF career. Top 5 hitter in the NL.

So the ACL thing was just a figment of my imagination? I didn't know I was that talented, being able to make "crap" up and make it true. Wow, that's a talent I'll have to use this year, too. Berkman as a Hall of Famer? Possible. However, you may want to look at his stats again. According to Baseball Reference, the four players most like Berkman before the age of 30 are Tim Salmon, Magglio Ordonez, Wally Berger, and Danny Tartabull. Good players, all. Hall of Famers, not a one.


7) Wilson.. hitting in an offensive ballpark , but his OBP will go down? I doubt it. He aint Pujols, but he will hit .270, 30, 90-100 with a .350 OBP. Thats just fine and an offensive upgrade no doubt. Here is the guy with an injury concern and you dont even mention it. UNREAL.

Wilson hit in an offensive ballpark for two and a half years. In fact, it's the best offensive ballpark EVER. Maybe you've heard of it. Mile High Stadium. his OBP in that park? Less than 330. The last time Wilson hit 270 was 2003, his career season. (See, it happens. A lot.) The last time he hit 30 home runs? Again, 2003. (There's that career season rearing its ugly head.) The last time he had an OBP over 350? 1999. Unreal is right...


8) Ausmus... great pitcher's catcher. Ausmus was signed for 1 reason, Clemens.

And what does that have to do with anything? I discussed his offensive shortcomings. Sure, he's a fine pitcher's catcher, whatever that means. As for Clemens, is he returning? Again, haven't seen that on any news wires or on the net. Is that yet another missive from the Astro Fan From the Great Beyond?


9) Everett... Not a punch and judy hitter at all. He just doesnt hit. When he does he hits for doubles.

Punch and judy hitter is a term that means a hitter has little power. Everett's career OPS is 670. That's not doubles, Astrobuddy. That's outs.


The Reds have offense but NO pitching or defense.

Well, at least we can agree on something. Of course, I wasn't discussing the Reds, but that's okay.


Oswalt and Pettitte made it thru the 2005 season without injury. Pettitte's elbow is fine and Oswalts hamstring is fixed. No worries.

Sure they did. In 2005. Let's look at the seasons before that. Pettite had elbow surgery in August of 2004. That means he was... INJURED! In 2003, Oswalt started only 21 games. Guess what? He, too, was... (wait for it) INJURED! That's two rather important injuries to two rather important pitchers in three years. Does this represent a worry? Apparently, not to you. As for me? I'd at least be concerned, especially considering the amount of IP on each of those two arms.


The bullpen is one of the best, although Lidge is a question. How will he handle it? We are all 2 months away from finding out.

Okay, pop quiz, hotshot. If Lidge is your closer and he's an admitted question on a team with no other apparent questions, wouldn't that make the entire bullpen a but suspect? And to say that Houston's pen is one of the best in baseball takes in only last season. Winning requires career years. The Astro bullpen had a ton of them. To whit:

Dan Wheeler's year was phenomenal. His career ERA before last season was over 4.50. Can he duplicate that success?

Mike Gallo's ERA dropped 2+ runs in 2005. Is that a sign of his mastery of big league hitters or of a career year?

Even Russ Springer pitched better than his career numbers would indicate, bettering his career ERA by a quater of a run.

And Lidge, perhaps the most dominant closer in baseball in 2005, choked in the post-season. Perhaps he comes back and does well. But, again, history says that's unlikely. Who replaces him if he struggles like he did in the Fall Classic? Chad Qualls? Are you really comfortable enough with your team that you see "no problems" with Chad Qualls as a possible closer candidate?

And, finally...


I wonder if you just sat down and made all that crap up or do you really believe it ? Either way, that was just sad and showed no real effort at trying to keep from looking like a very un-intelligent fan.


Sigh.

Nevermind.

[M2]

IMO, without Clemens the Astros are in a bit of trouble.

They won't fall apart, but if Roger isn't back with the team, I don't see where the pitching staff replaces him. The offense ranked 11th and 12th in the NL in most categories last season, which means the pitching has to be gangbusters for the club to win. I think Taveras can pick up his game a bit and Burke should as well. Berkman for a full year (as opposed to 132 games) will help too, but Biggio's turning 40 and Ensberg likely won't repeat last season. There doesn't look to be any way for this offense to get a lot better unless Preston Wilson goes wild. Think about it like this, the 2005 Astros had an offensive twin in Pittsburgh ... and Pittsburgh's added more offense in the offseason.

If the pitching reverts to its 2004 form, it's hard to imagine the club wins more than 85 games.

[Astrobuddy]

You are just so wrong on so many counts.

Lane wasnt hurt, he sat and thats the truth. NO propensity to getting injured. YOu equate not playing in 162 games to being injured. Tell me what his injuries were please. Call the DL fairy if you must.

Bagwell will either retire or be DL'd. He wont take up a roster spot making $17 million sitting on the bench pinch hitting. No fairy needed it is painfully obvious.

On Burke.. 318 at bats is a bunch? Hell, its only a little over 1/2 a season. He got better as the season went on as well.

Ensberg.. what history says he wont?

Berkman.. 1 injury doesnt mean he has injury issues as you implied. Thats my point. Berkman will be at 1st where he belongs. On his stats, I said he was working on a HOF career, which is still within his reach. His numbers are very, very good.


Wilson was hurt in Colorado.

It is no secret and was reported that Clemens said, "no Ausmus, No Clemens"

Pettitte and Oswalt... Once again, having been injured once doesnt equate to injury issues. Oswalt was 40-22 in 04/05 . WAIT FOR IT>>>>> I think he is healed. Pettitte made 33 starts in 2005 and had no issues with his elbow and was stronger as the year went on.... WAIT FOR IT>>>>>> I think he is healed as well.

On the bullpen.. questions dont mean negatives, they are just that questions. But even if Lidge is not as dominant, he wont suck and will still be better than most. Yes, the Astros bullpen had great years from a couple of guys, but you and this "career year" thing. Just because a guy has a great year doesnt mean that POOF he wont have another and and another.

Yes, I think you are a guy who, like most is probably a nice guy who reads alot of stats, Baseball-reference.com and such and comes up with conclusions based on black and white or gray ink. Baseball isnt on paper. Its on the field.

I am trying to tell you some things from my perspective and correct you on some things that you are just dead wrong on.

Keep this is mind... stats dont tell the whole story.

[Astrobuddy]

M2, the Astros are prepared for life without Clemens. I for one think he is returning in May. The biggest reason.. he hasnt cleaned out his locker at MMP. That may seem small, but Pettitte isnt worried either. Remember, I live here. We hear things that dont get reported on AP or by the hacks on ESPN.

Oswalt
Pettitte
Backe
??
??

The Astros have alot of young pitchers that will compete for the 4th and 5th spots. They will be alright.

I dont disagree with you on the 85 wins. That is till good enough for 2nd and the Astros and Cards will fight it out again for the division.

The offense will be better than 11th or 12th, that I can assure you. PLUS, remember.. The Astros had a deal for Tejada and HE balked, deciding he didnt want to be traded afterall or he would be the Astros SS. The Astros arent afraid of spending money and they are not done improving this team.

[M2]

M2, the Astros are prepared for life without Clemens. I for one think he is returning in May. The biggest reason.. he hasnt cleaned out his locker at MMP. That may seem small, but Pettitte isnt worried either. Remember, I live here. We hear things that dont get reported on AP or by the hacks on ESPN.

Oswalt
Pettitte
Backe
??
??

The Astros have alot of young pitchers that will compete for the 4th and 5th spots. They will be alright.

I dont disagree with you on the 85 wins. That is till good enough for 2nd and the Astros and Cards will fight it out again for the division.

The offense will be better than 11th or 12th, that I can assure you. PLUS, remember.. The Astros had a deal for Tejada and HE balked, deciding he didnt want to be traded afterall or he would be the Astros SS. The Astros arent afraid of spending money and they are not done improving this team.

Young guys competing for 4th and 5th spots don't replace Roger Clemens. For instance, if a kid comes in and pitches as well as Backe did last year in the same amount of innings Clemens logged, the Astros will be looking at 68 extra runs. This also underscores that Backe isn't a very good pitcher. IMO, getting Clemens back in May will be an essential.

Jason Hirsch is where the help will come from when it comes, but he might not be able to provide it until 2007. He probably needs a year in AAA before he's fully cooked. Outside of him, the Astros didn't have much pitching talent in the high minors last season. Maybe Carlos Hernandez or Fernando Nieve have figued something out, but I wouldn't hold out much hope for Zeke Astacio or Taylor Buchholz. That's not a lot in the way of quality. It's certainly no one I'd expect to come in and be a plus pitcher next season (and plus pitchers are what you need to make a serious playoff run).

Assure me all you like, but I don't see what makes Houston a significantly better offensive club next year. Ensberg's not getting any better, in fact he'll probably slide a bit. Lane's what he is (a relatively easy out with a little power). Everett's a #8 hitter. Ausmus is too. Biggio's not likely to do better. Berkman's awesome, but that's nothing new. So that leaves you with looking for most of your improvement from Preston Wilson and the Taveras/Burke combo. I think the kids will do a bit better and Wilson can give the club Lane-ish production. Maybe that pumps the offense up to a 725-run unit from the 693-run unit of last year (assuming Ensberg and Biggio don't slide too much and most everyone, particularly Berkman, stays healthy).

That's still a pretty bad offense. Tejada would have been a great addition. Purpura's going to need to figure something out, because he's drawn a bagel for the most part this offseason.

And 85 wins won't win squat. 85 wins shouldn't even get you third place in the division next year. The Brewers are for real. For sure, 85 wins won't put a team anywhere near the division lead. If the 'Stros are fighting with the Cardinals at the 85-win mark (and I'm guessing the Birds would be horrified to win so few games) all they're fighting for is some bragging rights for when both clubs are watching October baseball from home.

[Scrap Irony]

Statistics tell 99% of the story. Proof is usually required on this board. You've offered little to none. I've tried. I suppose we'll see by the end of the season.

[Jpup]

M2, you said that the Brewers are for real. Why do you think they are that much better than last year? Just wondering since I haven't seen them do a whole lot to improve the club. I fully expect 2006 to be a down year for the NL Central.

[M2]

M2, you said that the Brewers are for real. Why do you think they are that much better than last year? Just wondering since I haven't seen them do a whole lot to improve the club.

They've got some youth that's just going to get better anyway in Weeks and Hardy. I also think Prince Fielder's going to be a legit rookie-of-the-year candidate.

I like the Koskie pickup for that club as well. Bill Hall's a nice supersub type, but he doesn't hit RHPs that well. Koskie does.

Milwaukee made what I thought was an unnoticed great deal with the Jays. It picked up Dave Bush (who's an awfully good #4-5 starter), Zach Jackson (a pitching prospect who's probably on a 2008 timetable) and OB-savvy OF Gabe Gross. Gross hasn't clicked in the majors yet, but he should be a very good 4th OF type in 2006. Corey Hart (he wears his sunglasses at night), from the Brewers system, should also be on hand to lend OF depth.

With Gross, Hart and Hall, the Brewers have a lot of options. If there's one team in the NL that can weather some offensive injuries, it's Milwaukee.

Then there's the pitching. Ben Sheets is as good a pitcher as anyone in the NL and he should be ready for a full season in 2006 (only got 22 starts in 2005). Doug Davis and Chris Capuano are quality lefties behind him. Now add in Bush and then pick a 5th starter between Victor Santos and Tomo Ohka and Milwaukee's got one of the deepest, best rotations in the NL.

Derrick Turnbow's on hand for the closing duties. Matt Wise is a solid set up man. Jose Capellan throws lightning bolts and he'll be part of the setup crew in 2006. Keep an eye out for ex-Braves prospect Brett Evert as well -- just a gut feeling I've got on him.

Milwaukee's got a nice mix of veterans and kids. It's deep. It's got power. It's got speed. It should be able to play some decent defense. And it can pitch. The club's run differential was also three wins better than its record last year. I think that team's an excellent bet to score more and allow less.

Honestly, as of right now, I think the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central. I don't expect the Cardinals to roll over, just that the Brewers strike me as a club ready to bust out.

[Jpup]

They've got some youth that's just going to get better anyway in Weeks and Hardy. I also think Prince Fielder's going to be a legit rookie-of-the-year candidate.

I like the Koskie pickup for that club as well. Bill Hall's a nice supersub type, but he doesn't hit RHPs that well. Koskie does.

Milwaukee made what I thought was an unnoticed great deal with the Jays. It picked up Dave Bush (who's an awfully good #4-5 starter), Zach Jackson (a pitching prospect who's probably on a 2008 timetable) and OB-savvy OF Gabe Gross. Gross hasn't clicked in the majors yet, but he should be a very good 4th OF type in 2006. Corey Hart (he wears his sunglasses at night), from the Brewers system, should also be on hand to lend OF depth.

With Gross, Hart and Hall, the Brewers have a lot of options. If there's one team in the NL that can weather some offensive injuries, it's Milwaukee.

Then there's the pitching. Ben Sheets is as good a pitcher as anyone in the NL and he should be ready for a full season in 2006 (only got 22 starts in 2005). Doug Davis and Chris Capuano are quality lefties behind him. Now add in Bush and then pick a 5th starter between Victor Santos and Tomo Ohka and Milwaukee's got one of the deepest, best rotations in the NL.

Derrick Turnbow's on hand for the closing duties. Matt Wise is a solid set up man. Jose Capellan throws lightning bolts and he'll be part of the setup crew in 2006. Keep an eye out for ex-Braves prospect Brett Evert as well -- just a gut feeling I've got on him.

Milwaukee's got a nice mix of veterans and kids. It's deep. It's got power. It's got speed. It should be able to play some decent defense. And it can pitch. The club's run differential was also three wins better than its record last year. I think that team's an excellent bet to score more and allow less.

Honestly, as of right now, I think the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central. I don't expect the Cardinals to roll over, just that the Brewers strike me as a club ready to bust out.

wow. I'll be watching those guys closely to see how it turns out. I can't expect anyone to unseat St. Louis as of yet, but it will be interesting to see. After looking at the division, right now I could see them finishing 2nd depending on how the Cubs and Astros rotations pan out. If Clemens comes back to Houston in May (which I don't really think will happen, NY), then the Astros are probably at 2 for me with Milwaukee at 3 and Chicago at 4. I think Pittsburgh and the Reds could fight it out for the cellar in the central in 2006. I really don't expect the Reds to win more than 70 games this season.

[Astrobuddy]

jpup... you think Clemens will go back to the Yankees?

That I can promise you will not happen. I will buy you Reds season tickets if Clemens goes back to NY.

[Jpup]

jpup... you think Clemens will go back to the Yankees?

That I can promise you will not happen. I will buy you Reds season tickets if Clemens goes back to NY.

Do you know Clemens personally, how can you promise something like that? You would have to get me another job closer to Cincinnati as well. It could get expensive.

[Caveat Emperor]

M2, the Astros are prepared for life without Clemens. I for one think he is returning in May. The biggest reason.. he hasnt cleaned out his locker at MMP. That may seem small, but Pettitte isnt worried either. Remember, I live here. We hear things that dont get reported on AP or by the hacks on ESPN.

You don't "prepare for life without" a pitcher that tossed 211 innings at a sub 2.00 ERA. There's simply nobody you can throw into a rotation to match that kind of production.

By definition -- you get worse.

Here's what I else troubles me about Houston this year...

* Andy Pettitte started 33 games (highest since '97), threw 222 innings (highest since '97) and set career marks in ERA (2.39), and OPSA (.613). Basically, he did a full run better than his career average in ERA, and almost a full .100 better than his career average in OPSA. He also avoided a trip to the DL, something he hadn't managed to do in 2 of the previous 3 years. I'm not confident he'll put up the same lofty numbers this season.

* Backe is penciled in as the 3rd starter, but he's going to have to get better from last year if he's going to be an effective rotation member. He averaged just under 6 IP per game, and only around 90 pitches per start. That tells me they were going to get him early in ballgames, which is never a good thing when you're going to be pitching in front of two unknown commodities in the rotation. Good news on him, though, was that it was first full season of starting, so hopefully there's some room for improvement.

* Willy Taveras 103k/25bb -- that's hideous for a leadoff man no matter how many bases you steal or how fast you are. Kid needs to learn to take a walk at the plate. If you can't lay off the crap, pitchers eventually figure you out.

* Morgan Ensberg has a breakout year, but will he fall off to 2004 levels the way he did after a great season in 2003? If he isn't carrying the mail, that puts a ton of pressure on Berkman and Preston Wilson. With no Clemens, there's going to be a greater need to score runs.

[westofyou]

Bagwell will either retire or be DL'd. He wont take up a roster spot making $17 million sitting on the bench pinch hitting. No fairy needed it is painfully obvious.



"I don't know Dr. Andrews, but I'm pretty sure he's going to say, 'You have a bad shoulder, sir.' I already know that. That doesn't mean I can't play. No matter what he says, I'm still going to go to spring training to play baseball."
--Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell, on the status of his arthritic shoulder (Houston Chronicle)


"We're trying to get some objective information. A healthy Jeff Bagwell is what we want. If he can't be a full-time player, we have to figure out if we can collect on the insurance or not."
--Astros GM Tim Purpura, on how if Bagwell aborts his comeback and retires before January 31st, insurance will pay over $15.6 million of the $17 million he's due in 2006


"I don't blame them. But the fact is, Jeff has a contract. Whether the Astros are happy about it is not the point."
--Bagwell's agent Barry Axelrod, on Houston's attempt to avoid paying Bagwell

[Strikes Out Looking]

The real problem for the Astros and Brewers is that they don't get to play the Reds 162 times a year! If they can fix that, they'll win 120 games at a minimum, as long as DanO is around.

[11BarryLarkin11]

"The Reds aren't currently working on multiyear pacts with any of their four remaining arbitration-eligible players.
The four are Adam Dunn, Aaron Harang, Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. "We had some preliminary discussion," GM Dan O'Brien said of Dunn's situation. "But with the clock ticking here, it was decided that the best thing to do was to focus on '06 for the moment and then we can revisit the other topic." Dunn will be eligible for free agency after 2007." Jan. 16 - 1:26 pm et
Source: Cincinnati Post
================================================== ========

Buying out the remaining two years of arbitration is a key bargaining chip in getting Dunn locked into a multiyear deal. O'B is giving away one of the two final years by signing Dunn to a one year deal again and getting nothing in return.

OB has done very little this offseason and yet he doesn't have the time to get a multiyear deal with Dunn completed? I'm not sure how that's possible.

What's the incentive for Dunn to sign a multiyear deal when he only has one year remaining before he hits free agency, as will be the case after this season?

Avoiding the ugly arbitration process and locking in guaranteed cash for the next four seasons are a big motivators for a player. O'B is wasting his bargaining power. Signing Dunn to a one year deal for 2006 and then trying to lock him into a multiyear deal after the season is a significant negotiating mistake. And, the downside of signing Dunn to a multiyear deal is miniscule in comparison to the upside of getting it done.

O'B needs to sign Dunn to a four year deal. Essentially, buy out Dunn's remaining two years of arbitration in exchange for his first two free agent years. That's fair for both sides.

I think the inability to get Dunn locked up in a multiyear deal GREATLY increases the chances that Dunn will test the free agent waters after 2007. And, if Dunn tests the waters, he'll be gone. Cincy can't compete financially with the big boys and can't compete in W/L department either. With only one season before free agency, there's no real reason for Dunn to sign a multiyear deal with Cincy without testing the market first.

This would seem to be yet another example of O'B's inability to manage the MLB roster.

[savafan]

Seeing this makes me think the writing is on the wall that DanO will be gone shortly after the ownership transfer.

[Unassisted]

I disagree that this gets fully pinned on the GM. If the LTC offers made aren't being accepted, what exactly is DanO supposed to do about it? He doesn't have a currency-printing press to increase his offers beyond what the lame-duck ownership has authorized and I don't think contracts signed at gunpoint will stand up in court. ;)

Maybe those 4 guys would prefer to test the FA waters, instead of re-signing with the Reds? Maybe they'd prefer to wait and see what the new ownership's commitment to winning and/or commitment to paying bigger salaries is before handcuffing themselves to the Reds?

[IslandRed]

Problem is, you're looking at this as a one-sided negotiation, where as long as the Reds throw down a by-the-book offer for a player of Dunn's caliber and service time, it's as good as done. It's not that simple. Locking in four years of guaranteed cash is a solid motivator. So is breaking the bank in arbitration for the next two years and getting out of Cincinnati for a better organization. Dunn doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's motivated by fear, and I can't blame him for adopting a wait-and-see stance.

In fact, my personal opinion -- which is just that -- is that Cincinnati had no chance at retaining him past 2007 until the team was sold, that he wasn't going to sign a long-term deal with a Lindner/O'Brien regime under any circumstances. We may have a chance if he likes what he sees from the new ownership.

[Astrobuddy]

west.. whats your point?


Jpup.. same question.

[11BarryLarkin11]

Problem is, you're looking at this as a one-sided negotiation, where as long as the Reds throw down a by-the-book offer for a player of Dunn's caliber and service time, it's as good as done. It's not that simple. Locking in four years of guaranteed cash is a solid motivator. So is breaking the bank in arbitration for the next two years and getting out of Cincinnati for a better organization. Dunn doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's motivated by fear, and I can't blame him for adopting a wait-and-see stance.

In fact, my personal opinion -- which is just that -- is that Cincinnati had no chance at retaining him past 2007 until the team was sold, that he wasn't going to sign a long-term deal with a Lindner/O'Brien regime under any circumstances. We may have a chance if he likes what he sees from the new ownership.

Actually, no, I'm not looking at it as a one sided negotiation, which is why O'B needs every last bit of leverage he can find. He certainly can't sell the Reds on their great performance on the field or their brilliance in the front office. As such, he needs every last bullet in the gun.

The new ownership group undeniably clouds the issue, but I see very little downside for the new owners in signing Dunn to a multiyear deal. And, whether or not O'B is authorized to commence negotiations, he should at least be laying the groundwork for negotiations. He should be expressing serious interest and listening to determine what Dunn is looking for in a four year deal. Then, when the new ownership is authorized, he would be ready to talk specifics and lock in a new deal. A multiyear deal would be unlikely to cost signficantly more in the first two years of the deal than either two one-year deals or arbitration hearings would produce. It's the final two that would be different and I hardly think that it would be of great concern to the new owners. Especially with Milton and then Griffey, to a certain extent, coming off the books in years to come.

I think it's a wasted opportunity, which, I guess, should be expected during O'B's tenure.

[Aronchis]

You are wrong.

O'brien is a lameduck GM. He should not be the one leading these charges, but Cast and his cohorts. They are in control now and set the plan. Obviously, much change is needed when implementing this plan.

The fact is, you need to overcome your O'brien obsession and come to conclusions based on the Cast era's first moves when the FO is overhauled(between now and next November most likely). If a player such as Adam Dunn is offered a long term deal from this new regime, it will tell us alot of where they are going, OR trading Dunn would probably tell us the same thing.

Many things can be taken from LTC's and whether or not they are given. A defining moment it may be.

[11BarryLarkin11]

You are wrong.

O'brien is a lameduck GM. He should not be the one leading these charges, but Cast and his cohorts. They are in control now and set the plan. Obviously, much change is needed when implementing this plan.

The fact is, you need to overcome your O'brien obsession and come to conclusions based on the Cast era's first moves when the FO is overhauled(between now and next November most likely). If a player such as Adam Dunn is offered a long term deal from this new regime, it will tell us alot of where they are going, OR trading Dunn would probably tell us the same thing.

Many things can be taken from LTC's and whether or not they are given. A defining moment it may be.

Actually, unless you are a member of the ownership group, I don't see how you can't definitively state any of that. Even if you were a prospective owner, I think MLB rules would prohibit you from publicly discussing plans for the organization until you are approved.

I think O'B SHOULD be a lame duck GM, but where is the proof that that is indeed the case? I find it to be rather unlikely that O'B is going to be fired the moment the new owners are in place. And, if that is indeed the case, are we to put all significant baseball decisions on hold until O'B's deal runs out? Is that the way to improve an organization?

[westofyou]

west.. whats your point?


Jpup.. same question.That the world isn't viewed through your eyes only?

[Redsland]

DanO is getting the ol' stiff-arm from the arbs.

Not much he can do about that.

[Astrobuddy]

I know that.. and that applies here how?




Clemens still isnt going to the Yankees.

[Heath]

Do you know Clemens personally, how can you promise something like that? You would have to get me another job closer to Cincinnati as well. It could get expensive.

Hey jpup - can I get a little of that action..... :D

also - astrobuddy - don't let your story get in the way of good facts.

And M2 said it better than I thought it - I've been thinking about the Brewers and playoffs lately. No, I've not been seeing a psychologist.

woy's point of Jeff Bagwell seems pretty black and white. Not some fan who follows a club who drilled in their first Series in 43 years spouting off guesses.

[Heath]

I think O'B SHOULD be a lame duck GM, but where is the proof that that is indeed the case? I find it to be rather unlikely that O'B is going to be fired the moment the new owners are in place. And, if that is indeed the case, are we to put all significant baseball decisions on hold until O'B's deal runs out? Is that the way to improve an organization?

In a regular baseball world, I'd agree. But, the latest mumbo-jumbo coming from DanO gives me the slight hope that DanO's desk has been cleared out and he's waiting for Friday.

It's not the way to improve the organization 11BL11 - but would you rather have nothing accomplished -- or -- more irreparible damage.

[11BarryLarkin11]

In a regular baseball world, I'd agree. But, the latest mumbo-jumbo coming from DanO gives me the slight hope that DanO's desk has been cleared out and he's waiting for Friday.

It's not the way to improve the organization 11BL11 - but would you rather have nothing accomplished -- or -- more irreparible damage.

I'd rather have nothing, but signing Dunn wouldn't be damaging at all. I think even O'B would have a hard time messing that one up, despite his clear difficulties in handling the MLB roster. Worst case for a Dunn multiyear contract is that he gives Adam a bit too much. That's a risk I'm willing to take. And, it's certainly more attractive risk than the possibility of losing Dunn after the 2007 season.

[MartyFan]

Seeing this makes me think the writing is on the wall that DanO will be gone shortly after the ownership transfer.

I agree completely. DanO is gone.

[Matt700wlw]

Before, LTC for Dunn was the first priority for the new year. Now neither side is inclinded to sign a LTC...

Trade coming?..?...?


Then again, looking at what wasn't done this offseason....would you sign a LTC with this team?

[IslandRed]

The new ownership group undeniably clouds the issue, but I see very little downside for the new owners in signing Dunn to a multiyear deal. And, whether or not O'B is authorized to commence negotiations, he should at least be laying the groundwork for negotiations. He should be expressing serious interest and listening to determine what Dunn is looking for in a four year deal. Then, when the new ownership is authorized, he would be ready to talk specifics and lock in a new deal.

Well, of course there's little downside to signing Dunn to a multiyear deal. There's also no downside to trading Eric Milton for Johan Santana, but it's not going to happen. It takes two to make a deal. IMO, you're still looking at this strictly from the Reds' perspective and discounting the possibility -- or probability, in my view -- that Adam Dunn has no interest in locking himself into this organization beyond 2007 unless things change dramatically. In which case, the only thing that's going to move talks forward is a different person sitting across the table.

[Strikes Out Looking]

One of DanO's problems is he refuses to negotiate from Opening Day until the end of the season. So he loses valuable opportunities to lock guys up long term. For instance, after the trading deadline, when the team shows commitment to someone like lets say, Adam Dunn, the chance to seize on the goodwill is lost because they won't discuss contracts at that time.

Not that it matters, with the pitching this team has Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron and Ty Cobb locked up in their prime for five years wouldn't yield 85 wins.

[11BarryLarkin11]

Well, of course there's little downside to signing Dunn to a multiyear deal. There's also no downside to trading Eric Milton for Johan Santana, but it's not going to happen. It takes two to make a deal. IMO, you're still looking at this strictly from the Reds' perspective and discounting the possibility -- or probability, in my view -- that Adam Dunn has no interest in locking himself into this organization beyond 2007 unless things change dramatically. In which case, the only thing that's going to move talks forward is a different person sitting across the table.

Dunn has already gone on record during the season as being interested in a 3 year ~$22M dollar contract. So, at the very least, he was/is interested.

[Falls City Beer]

Houston's become quite a bit like the Braves--they get every last drop out of their slightly above average talent.

I wouldn't count them out.

The Brewers need at least another season to figure out how to win games that matter--they would be wise to snag a veteran winner (David Wells? Contreras? I know, I know, throw only soft fruit at me) to front their rotation--they've got one killer and a bunch of soft-tossers. That's usually a recipe for second place--unless you have an offense like the Cards; the Brewers, while very good offensively, are clearly a notch below the Cards vis. offense.

[TeamBoone]

I disagree that this gets fully pinned on the GM. If the LTC offers made aren't being accepted, what exactly is DanO supposed to do about it?

Ask Adam what he wants, negotiate, perhaps compromise.... but get it done.

But don't just forget it. Remember, DOB (or was it the old owners?) won't discuss contracts during the season. Thus, it would have to be tabled until fall. Not a good idea.

[KronoRed]

But don't just forget it. Remember, DOB (or was it the old owners?) won't discuss contracts during the season. Thus, it would have to be tabled until fall. Not a good idea.
Adding to that it appears the season starts in January, the window for Dan O seems to be about 2 weeks at the end of the year :dunno:

[TeamBoone]

Good point, Krono.

[jnwohio]

From the players' point of view is there any reason why should the remaining "big 3" for the Reds have any interest in signing until Castellini is officially in charge?

Until he speaks on Friday, they don't know which direction he might be taking the team.

If they sign with DanO now several disadvantageous things could happen. They might be giving up arbitration and some free agency years to be stuck in a status quo losing situation here. Or they might give up the same and suddenly become top grade trade bait ending up some place totally out of their control and liking. Or they could end up signing for a lot less this week than Castellini will put on the table next week as part of a hit the road running rebuilding plan.


As for DanO, what else can he say other than he is going to concentrate on getting them signed to 1 year deals? If they won't talk longer terms, he has to move in the 1 year direction to try and avoid arb is is closing in fast. Even if he has been told he is still going to be around for the season and what his budget and marching orders are, nobody else is going to believe it until Mr. C speaks it publically.

So let's see where all of this is heading this time next week before we start getting real worried.

[M2]

Capuano's a bona fide hard tosser. Dude can air it out. Bush works at about the same velocity as Harang, might even throw a bit harder. Davis isn't a smoke thrower, but gimme a soft-tosser with 208 Ks any day.

Though I agree another frontline starter would make that team a beast.

[Falls City Beer]

Capuano's a bona fide hard tosser. Dude can air it out.


Really? I honestly didn't realize that. The couple times I've seen the guy pitch, he didn't break 91 on the TV radar gun. But I'll take your word for it.

I agree, the Brewers have some interesting parts, and could make a run. But they're in deep doo if, for some reason, Sheets pulls up lame again and makes 15 starts next season or something. They have some nice offensive depth, but their rotation depth isn't much.

[savafan]

I don't believe this is the players saying they don't want to sign long term contracts with the Reds, I believe this is Dan O'Brien saying that the ownership of this club, either current or incoming, is telling him not to sign long term contracts with these players. This is why I believe that DanO will soon be gone, the owners don't want him negotiating these decisions.

[M2]

Really? I honestly didn't realize that. The couple times I've seen the guy pitch, he didn't break 91 on the TV radar gun. But I'll take your word for it.

I agree, the Brewers have some interesting parts, and could make a run. But they're in deep doo if, for some reason, Sheets pulls up lame again and makes 15 starts next season or something. They have some nice offensive depth, but their rotation depth isn't much.

I'm pretty sure Capuano dials it harder than 91. His fastball is his best pitch, iirc, and he's got a good career K rate.

Any team's in trouble if loses its ace, but the Brewers were 4th in the NL in ERA with Sheets missing significant time in 2005. That's a pretty solid staff, hardly a one-man show. Beyond that, Bush should improve the rotation (what the Brewers got for Overbay puts to shame what the Reds got for Casey) and the bullpen should be on the improve as well.

[wheels]

I wish I was a Brewers fan.

[Heath]

I wish I was a Brewers fan.

no you don't.

Even in the bad valley the Reds are in right now, I'd never could be a Brewers fan.

[KronoRed]

I wish I was a Brewers fan.
I just wish we had some of their pitchers.

[M2]

I wish I was a Brewers fan.

I wouldn't go that far, but I think the Brewers have stolen the Reds' "Little Red Machine That Could" mojo. I think the Reds and Reds fans have always expected that when one of the smaller markets rises up to challenge the big boys of the NL Central it would be Cincinnati. Instead it looks like it's going to be the Brewers. That club's on the right page. Notice how Doug Melvin took over an organization without much pitching in the pipeline and still managed to build himself a solid young staff. His plan could have involved waiting on Ben Hendrickson and Mike Jones (who may never show up), but instead he went out and built a staff behind Sheets.

[timmario66]

From ESPN.com:


All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira agreed to a $15.4 million, two-year contract Tuesday with the Texas Rangers, avoiding salary arbitration this year and next.

Could be a starting point for negotiations with Dunn.

[Puffy]

what the Brewers got for Overbay puts to shame what the Reds got for Casey

Seriously? I mean, we got DAVE WILLIAMS and only had to throw in an extra 1 million or so.

:(

[Falls City Beer]

Any team's in trouble if loses its ace

I don't think Houston will be in that much trouble. I don't think the Cardinals lose much if they lose Carpenter for 15 starts.

In theory, any team's in trouble if they lose their ace; in reality, some teams find themselves in a lot deeper trouble than others when their ace goes down.

It's my anecdotal observation that "little engine that could" teams need not only talent, but good breaks, to unseat standing powers.

[TStuck]

And unfortunately, some teams like ours, can only wish they had an ace to worry about losing. :cry:

[flyer85]

I'm pretty sure Capuano dials it harder than 91. His fastball is his best pitch, iirc, and he's got a good career K rate.Cap has an average fastball that sits aound 88 and rarely breaks 90. He lives off a great changeup which he throws well and often. He also has a good breaking ball which he uses very effectively against LH batters.

Capuano is an example of the fact that you can pitch well without a great fastball if you can command two offspeed pitches.

[Heath]

From ESPN.com:


All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira agreed to a $15.4 million, two-year contract Tuesday with the Texas Rangers, avoiding salary arbitration this year and next.

Could be a starting point for negotiations with Dunn.



Teixeira
Year Ag Tm Lg G HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
+--------------+---+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+--
2003 23 TEX AL 146 26 84 44 120 .259 .331 .480
2004 24 TEX AL 145 38 112 68 117 .281 .370 .560
2005 25 TEX AL 162 43 144 72 124 .301 .379 .575

Dunn
Year Ag Tm Lg G HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---
2003 23 CIN NL 116 27 57 74 126 .215 .354 .465
2004 24 CIN NL 161 46 102 108 195 .266 .388 .569
2005 25 CIN NL 160 40 101 114 168 .247 .387 .540


Even look at it this way - The Rangers are paying Teixeira the same amount the Pirates are paying Sean Casey.

I'm not sure that Dunn would do that - however - a 3 yr deal at 27M probably isn't that far off, plus you throw in the incentives.

Anybody knows who Dunn's agent is?

[pedro]

Anybody knows who Dunn's agent is?

http://www.scarysquirrel.org/eric/secret.jpg

[M2]

I don't think Houston will be in that much trouble. I don't think the Cardinals lose much if they lose Carpenter for 15 starts.

In theory, any team's in trouble if they lose their ace; in reality, some teams find themselves in a lot deeper trouble than others when their ace goes down.

It's my anecdotal observation that "little engine that could" teams need not only talent, but good breaks, to unseat standing powers.

Houston has lost its ace and I'd argue it is in trouble unless he comes back. You're talking about a 60-run difference between Clemens and the mortal that tries to replace him. The Astros can't afford that. With that offense, they won't be able to stick with the playoff contenders unless the pitching goes lights out again.

I don't think the Astros are going to fall apart, but I don't think they're a serious playoff contender without Clemens.

I agree that the Cardinals could weather Carpenter. That's what a sick offense, class defense, strong bullpen and rotation depth will do for you. St. Louis is a machine.

You're right that smaller market teams rely on key players a bit more. For instance, the Twins can't compete unless Johan Santana gives the team his full Monty. The Brewers are probably in a similar situation with Sheets, though the pitching is still pretty good beyond Sheets and the offense is deep and getting better. IMO, what that team needs Sheets for is getting past the Cardinals. With him taking the ball every fifth day, the Brewers can (though not necessarily will) do it. Without that it becomes a much longer shot.

[M2]

Cap has an average fastball that sits aound 88 and rarely breaks 90. He lives off a great changeup which he throws well and often. He also has a good breaking ball which he uses very effectively against LH batters.

Capuano is an example of the fact that you can pitch well without a great fastball if you can command two offspeed pitches.

Sounds like I've overrated his velo. Though I'm pretty sure there's something up with his fastball, maybe it's sick movement on it (which wouldn't be out of sorts for a southpaw). I know it's a swing-and-miss pitch for him.

[TeamBoone]

Originally Posted by Heath
Anybody knows who Dunn's agent is?

Brian Peters.

[Redsland]

Brian Peters.
According to John Fay (http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060117/SPT04/601170377) (I know, I know), it's Greg Genske.