Will DanO be GM for the remainder of his contract?

[RFS62]

Simple question.

Will DanO serve out his entire contract as GM for this season?

Yes or No.

[Reds4Life]

No. He’ll be fired around midseason when the Reds are fighting for last place yet again.

[Matt700wlw]

Here's a what if...

what if the Reds are sucking it up again come midseason? DanO get fired.

What if the Reds shock the world this season and make a run? DanO gets a contract extension...

:yikes:

[Reds4Life]

Here's a what if...

what if the Reds are sucking it up again come midseason? DanO get fired.

What if the Reds shock the world this season and make a run? DanO gets a contract extension...

:yikes:

If DanO gets an extension I'm done with the Reds for good.

[Ravenlord]

midseason at worst. possibly even the end of April.

[RFS62]

It just occurred to me. Maybe Castellini is saving DanO to throw to the lions if the Reds suck as badly as they did last year.

If he cans him now, it's for past transgressions and the focus is all on him for the upcoming season. If he saves him, he gets to make the kill in front of the angry mob and show that he'll do what is necessary to right the ship.

He gets a PR boost now anyway, coming in on a honeymoon with the local media. He could be saving DanO for later when he needs a scapegoat (and deservedly so) in the middle of a losing season.

[Mario-Rijo]

I think he will be given a full year. Just so the organization comes out looking like they have some class. But I will say that I don't think that Castellini is a fan of DOB, based on his press conference I remember him saying "We have a good manager" or something like it at least twice and maybe 3 times. However I don't recall him saying the same thing about his G.M., in fact I don't recall him saying anything at all about DOB! What's that 'ole sayin "If you don't have something nice to say about someone, Don't say nothin' at all"!!

Not only that he touched on the lack of talent in the "Pipeline", he also stated that he is going to "Let his horses out and see if they can run". Yeah here's to hoping that one particular pony is stubborn, and only trots!!!!:beerme:

[pedro]

It just occurred to me. Maybe Castellini is saving DanO to throw to the lions if the Reds suck as badly as they did last year.

If he cans him now, it's for past transgressions and the focus is all on him for the upcoming season. If he saves him, he gets to make the kill in front of the angry mob and show that he'll do what is necessary to right the ship.

He gets a PR boost now anyway, coming in on a honeymoon with the local media. He could be saving DanO for later when he needs a scapegoat (and deservedly so) in the middle of a losing season.


Brilliant!

http://images.usatoday.com/money/_photos/2004/12/27/inside1-guinness.jpg

[Cyclone792]

It just occurred to me. Maybe Castellini is saving DanO to throw to the lions if the Reds suck as badly as they did last year.

If he cans him now, it's for past transgressions and the focus is all on him for the upcoming season. If he saves him, he gets to make the kill in front of the angry mob and show that he'll do what is necessary to right the ship.

He gets a PR boost now anyway, coming in on a honeymoon with the local media. He could be saving DanO for later when he needs a scapegoat (and deservedly so) in the middle of a losing season.

Yep, that seems to be the most logical assumption, especially with his constant diatribe that he wants to win this season and thinks the team will win this season.

Not unless the offense at least maintains its torrid level and Harang/Claussen suddenly morph into Cy Young contenders will this team compete. When we start losing, like we're expected to, O'Brien's gone.

[Falls City Beer]

Yep, that seems to be the most logical assumption, especially with his constant diatribe that he wants to win this season and thinks the team will win this season.

Not unless the offense at least maintains its torrid level and Harang/Claussen suddenly morph into Cy Young contenders will this team compete. When we start losing, like we're expected to, O'Brien's gone.

Come on. Is that really a good strategy? I think even the thickest of fans is going to say, "Why the hell didya wait so long to can this guy?" when the Reds are 25 games out in July.

Why do you keep a guy around so you can have someone to point a finger at when your team flops? That's the height of leadership cowardice. Hell, that's Bush-esque. Aw, who am I kidding?

[pedro]

Come on. Is that really a good strategy? I think even the thickest of fans is going to say, "Why the hell didya wait so long to can this guy?" when the Reds are 25 games out in July.

I don't think it's so bad. Neuter DanO now, throw him to the lions later. I think everyone realizes that this year is a lost cause anyway, might as well save the spectical for later on when distractions are needed.

[RFS62]

We've been looking at this all wrong.

We need to look at it from Castellini's point of view. In a negotiation, you never shoot your bullets until you need them.

Firing DanO is a trump card, a get out of jail free card.

He doesn't need it now, PR wise. I'll bet he's got him clamped down tight, reporting every paperclip expenditure to him, which, by the way, probably gets DanO all twitterpated.

Castellini has a honeymoon period, as evidenced by the way the press is treating him right now. They're so happy to have an owner who'll talk to them they don't know what to do.

There's not much wrong with this franchise that Castellini can't blame on the past, and DanO in particular with his pitching moves. He'd be crazy to shoot those bullets now, he's definitely going to need them later.

It's like a contractor who is doing a remodel, and always says "I can't believe what the last guy did here". It never fails. Blame it on the past contractor.

And do it when it best suits your needs.

[RFS62]

Come on. Is that really a good strategy? I think even the thickest of fans is going to say, "Why the hell didya wait so long to can this guy?" when the Reds are 25 games out in July.



I don't think he will wait that long. If the Reds suck as badly as they did the first half of last year, DanO will be gone before the All Star break. And he'll take the fall, and rightfully so, instead of all the focus on Castellini.

[Falls City Beer]

I think everyone realizes that this year is a lost cause anyway,

In case you hadn't noticed, that's been the story of the last ten years of this club. And that's been the attitude of this ownership (and apparently the new ownership)--a trenchant absence of urgency.

[Aronchis]

In case you hadn't noticed, that's been the story of the last ten years of this club. And that's been the attitude of this ownership (and apparently the new ownership)--a trenchant absence of urgency.

I disagree. He sees the urgency, but this isn't something you fix in one night. Nor is DanO the Reds "GM" anymore in a traditional sense of the word. He is being phased out so to speak. You are biting yourself inspite of. Learn more then make a decision.

[Falls City Beer]

I disagree. He sees the urgency, but this isn't something you fix in one night.

I see the free passes are flowing like cheap Chianti.

[dougdirt]

Everyone on here seems to hate Obrien with a passion. I am on the other side of the fence with him. Anyone ever sit back and think that Obrien was under control of Lindner and John Allen?

As for the minor league comment made by new ownership, there is no true prospects that will start the season in double A or higher, but I put all of that blame on previous management before Obrien came. From 2002-2004 the only true prospect in the system was a guy named Encarnacion. Thats a pretty long time to only have one true prospect. It shows now since there is absolutely no one who has the potential to be an every day player who will be in Chattanooga or Louisville.

I think Obrien has the team going in the right direction with drafts. He has turned around the minor leagues for this franchise, and the minor leagues are going to be the foundation of this team in the future, its just unfortunate that he took over an obsolutely bare system. He has had just 2 drafts to turn it around and he has tripled the talent in the system.

Yeah he signed Milton and Ortiz, but he also made some good signings with Randa, Aurilia, Weathers and Mercker. Give the guy a little bit of time before ripping his head off and throwing it to the dogs.

[MWM]

If that's truly what he's thinking, that's about as piss poor leadership as I can imagine, not to mention a bit unethical. Waiting to fire someone just means he doesn't know what he wants to do NOW. If the guy had any confidence that he knew how to build a baseball organization, strategery like this wouldn't be necessary. Competent people don't need excuses or scapegoats. they make hard decisions and they make them now. And they certainly understand that time is criticial in the basball world. Waiting to start moving the organization in the right direction is buffoonery at it's finest and, if true, we're in for a another decade of the same.

Keeping a person, or two people in this case, in critical positions who are incompetent is just bad business.

[MWM]

The minor leagues are worse now then when DanO took over.

[RFS62]

If that's truly what he's thinking, that's about as piss poor leadership as I can imagine, not to mention a bit unethical. Waiting to fire someone just means he doesn't know what he wants to do NOW. If the guy had any confidence that he knew how to build a baseball organization, strategery like this wouldn't be necessary. Competent people don't need excuses or scapegoats. they make hard decisions and they make them now. And they certainly understand that time is criticial in the basball world. Waiting to start moving the organization in the right direction is buffoonery at it's finest and, if true, we're in for a another decade of the same.

Keeping a person, or two people in this case, in critical positions who are incompetent is just bad business.



Watch and see if it doesn't go down that way.

[WVRedsFan]

Soon and very soon.

When I watched the news conference this afternoon, I was way depressed because:
1. He kept O'Brien and Allen
2. He said the Reds would contend this year (what had he been drinkin?)
3. The payroll would stay the same
4. He called Jerry Narron "brilliant" and a few other nice terms
5. He said Narron "nearly went .500" and that was a wonderful job
6. He said our young pitchers would do better (how so?)
7. He said Paul Wilson would be back (Oh joy, joy) and that would help
8. The "pride" thing was a little much

Now, after having three hours to digest all of this I feel a little bit better. I think he didn't fire DanO and Allen for continuity. I'm sure their time is coming and he might just find them resigning soon. I'm sure O'Brien's trait that makes making a decision will grate on RCast from the first day.

Maybe he mentioned contending because he has something up his sleeve we don't know about. Let's hope. I don't know how much of the payroll is Griffey and Milton, but maybe one of them is going soon in a trade.

He wanted to hire Lou for a job, probably manager. Lou had committed to Fox, so you call your manager brilliant for PR and then fire him next year when Lou's available. I still can't rationalize the "nearly .500" statement and contending. I do need help here.

Maybe he knows something about our pitching we don't know. He said (and I'm surprised no one picked up on this) that we needed sinkerball pitchers and was making sure if our pitchers couldn't throw the sinker, they'd learn.

I think there is hope, but it may take a couple of months for us to see it happening. At least I hope so.

[MWM]

Continuity?????? WHY? Coninuity of what, horrible baseball teams. This isn't the way businesses operate. Whenever a strugglin business changes hands, there are ALWAYS changes at the top IMMEDIATELY! The only exception is when the person at the top is doing a good job, which clearly isn't the case here.

RFS, I'm tired of "waiting to see." I've heard that too many times over the past 5 years when bad moves are made. I'm tired of waiting!

[dougdirt]

The minor leagues are worse now then when DanO took over.
Please explain to me how you came to that conclusion.

[dougdirt]

Soon and very soon.


3. The payroll would stay the same


If he bumped the payroll to 100 million right now, it wouldnt make a difference. There is no one out there to sign.

[BoydsOfSummer]

I'll bet Obie doesn't make it to spring training.

Notice how those shrewd BoSox lured Theo back just before Castellini takes the reins and can spring into action? :cool:

[steig]

I believe DanO will be fired shortly into the season or maybe even spring training. In order to win in the long run the team needs to build through the draft and Castenelli will probably want his own team to be in place to scout and decide who to take in the draft. Waiting a year for the draft team is almost like adding a nother year before the team is competitive for the long term.

[RFS62]

RFS, I'm tired of "waiting to see." I've heard that too many times over the past 5 years when bad moves are made. I'm tired of waiting!



Mike, you need to read some of the stuff M2, WOY and I have been writing the last few days, and a lot of other posters.

We called for DanO's head on a pike.

[Heath]

The minor leagues are worse now then when DanO took over.

I don't think the minor leagues have been right since 1985.

I thought that they couldn't get any worse.

I still don't think they can be any worse.

[dougdirt]

I don't think the minor leagues have been right since 1985.

I thought that they couldn't get any worse.

I still don't think they can be any worse.

Sure they can....go back two years, three years.

[M2]

It just occurred to me. Maybe Castellini is saving DanO to throw to the lions if the Reds suck as badly as they did last year.

If he cans him now, it's for past transgressions and the focus is all on him for the upcoming season. If he saves him, he gets to make the kill in front of the angry mob and show that he'll do what is necessary to right the ship.

He gets a PR boost now anyway, coming in on a honeymoon with the local media. He could be saving DanO for later when he needs a scapegoat (and deservedly so) in the middle of a losing season.

Possibly. Or perhaps he's just in need of the bucket of cold water that will be this team's pitching staff to wake him up.

I figure DanO's not safe until pitchers and catchers report. If he survives until that moment, then he's a midseason casualty for sure.

[MWM]

What are the most recent ownership changes in MLB? I can think of the Dodgers and the Red Sox.

Frank McCourt bought the team on January 29, 2004. It was common knowledge before it was official that he planned on firing Dan Evans. However, he didn't fire him right away, he let him interview for the opening. He hired DePodesta on February 16.

John Henry's sale was approved on February 27, 2002. He fired Dan Duquette within 24 hours of the sale being approved. They brought in Mike Port as an interim GM for the 2002 season before hiring Theo.

When Loria took over the Marlins, he brought Beinfest with him from the Expos.

[westofyou]

What are the most recent ownership changes in MLB? I can think of the Dodgers and the Red Sox.

A's...

[MWM]

Mike, you need to read some of the stuff M2, WOY and I have been writing the last few days, and a lot of other posters.

We called for DanO's head on a pike.

Yeah,I've been catching up. I agree with all of you. But as I've settled down now, I'm willing to give him a couple of weeks. Not firing him TODAY isn't a good sign and I think it was a missed opportunity to come in a send a message that what's been going on recently ain't gonna cut it. But if he does it in the next couple of weeks, I'll understand. I agree with M2 that if he makes it to pitchers and catchers, we're in trouble.

This is the direct quote from the press conference that troubles me: "Our general manager and head of baseball operations, Dan O'Brien, also will report directly to me." He mentioned his name directly as the GM. I can't imagine he would so that if he planned on firing the guy. Lord I hope I'm wrong.


I don't understand the sentiment that the person he wants isn't available. The only people not available are current GMs. And the only way one DOES come available is if they are fired. Everyone else is available.

[RFS62]

This is the direct quote from the press conference that troubles me: "Our general manager and head of baseball operations, Dan O'Brien, also will report directly to me." He mentioned his name directly as the GM. I can't imagine he would so that if he planned on firing the guy. Lord I hope I'm wrong.



He's history. He's as dead as Julius Caesar.

It's just a matter of time.




I don't understand the sentiment that the person he wants isn't available. The only people not available are current GMs. And the only way one DOES come available is if they are fired. Everyone else is available.


The only thing I can think of is that he's being respectful to Lindner's hire. Sacking DanO immediately could be considered a slap in the face of Lindner, who picked DanO to start with.

[Falls City Beer]

If that's truly what he's thinking, that's about as piss poor leadership as I can imagine, not to mention a bit unethical. Waiting to fire someone just means he doesn't know what he wants to do NOW. If the guy had any confidence that he knew how to build a baseball organization, strategery like this wouldn't be necessary. Competent people don't need excuses or scapegoats. they make hard decisions and they make them now. And they certainly understand that time is criticial in the basball world. Waiting to start moving the organization in the right direction is buffoonery at it's finest and, if true, we're in for a another decade of the same.

Keeping a person, or two people in this case, in critical positions who are incompetent is just bad business.

Yeah. What he said. And stuff.

[KronoRed]

Yes..if we sniff .500 he'll be back for more.

[Henry Clay]

I think Dan O'Brien has plenty of reason to be concerned. In his shoes, I would be very, very worried. These statements would have me the most concerned:

From the open letter to the fans:

"We will build one of the most respected organizations in baseball. As partners in other successful baseball organizations we know how it’s done. We will build a winning management team by putting the right people in the right positions with the right resources to win. We will foster a winning attitude and culture."

When I read this, I thought, "O'Brien has to be worried."

From the speech:

"We'll ensure that the best people are in the right roles with the resources to win."

He's not talking about retaining the best people who are already in place. O'Brien is clearly not the best person. The following quote has some subtext that suggests how Castellini feels about Dan O'Brien:


"I will serve as Chief Executive Officer, with both groups reporting to me. I'm happy to announce that John Allen has agreed to stay with us as Chief Operating Officer to head our business operation. Our general manager and head of baseball operations, Dan O'Brien, also will report directly to me."

So he's happy about Allen being with the organization in the role he should have stayed in from the start. Great for Allen. He said nothing about being happy with O'Brien. Nothing at all. Instead he made clear that O'Brien will be reporting directly to Castellini. I'm sure Allen will do the same, but the fact that he said he's happy with Allen staying with the team on the business side (essentially a demotion because he stripped him of all baseball operations responsibilty) makes me think he is looking at the two men differently. Again, Allen may be one of those people who needs to be "in the right role[]." For O'Brien, no praise or happiness, just the clear statement that he now will report directly to Castellini. I took that as "O'Brien is on a short leash, and I'm reviewing everything he does." Imagine if your boss made a similar statement about you.

Another reason I think Castellini is not fond of O'Brien, Castellini is going "to work out of the Reds offices on a daily basis until [he] ha[s] an insider's understanding of how we work -- what we're doing well and what we can do better." When the new company owner announces that he is going to leave his regular office in another part of downtown to move into your office to review your work until he figures out what you are doing, you'd better be worried.

This was the final nail for me:


"As we build our organization, we'll likely do some other things differently once we get our sleeves rolled up."

That suggests some foreseen change is coming. He said that this would happen "once we get our sleeves rolled up," not after a year, a season, or things were finally figured out by new ownership. The time for rolling up sleeves is in the beginning, when you are getting started to work.

This guy wants to be a hands-on owner. He will want quick answers. He wants to play with his new toy now. After all, he pretty much said he's moving his office to GABP. It's like he's a small market answer to George Steinbrenner. O'Brien will not last, especially with Castellini in his office asking questions and reviewing his work day after day. Even if Castellini does not want to fire O'Brien now, he will soon get tired of the slow answers and moves (e.g., being late to the dance for top target Matt Morris), the apparent inability to multi-task, bad baseball judgment, poor past decisions, and the now famous rambling, indirect answers and nonsense talk.

I predict a move before ST.

[MWM]

He's history. He's as dead as Julius Caesar.

Of course, but that could be after the season.


It's just a matter of time.

That's the problem, the Reds don't have time. They need to get to work RIGHT NOW.

BTW, I like my steaks medium and my beverage of choice is Newcastle. And I like the works on my potato. Is there a Ruth's Chris down there?




The only thing I can think of is that he's being respectful to Lindner's hire. Sacking DanO immediately could be considered a slap in the face of Lindner, who picked DanO to start with.

Again, I know you aren't saying you think this is right and that you're just trying to make sense of the seemingly senseless, but this is just horrible business if that's the case. You don't go into business to protect people's feelings. If this is truly why he's doing what he's doing, he's got no business owning a baseball team.

As I've said in the past, it's not so much that DanO will still be GM....although that's not a good thing. It's what his retention represents of the new owner.

And I'm a firm believer that if you know you're going to fire someone, you do it now. It's not fair to the person being fired to string them along, and you're not doing them any favors by doing so. Just get it over with and let everyone move on.

[Henry Clay]

"And I'm a firm believer that if you know you're going to fire someone, you do it now. It's not fair to the person being fired to string them along, and you're not doing them any favors by doing so. Just get it over with and let everyone move on."

I'm not sure O'Brien will be strung along for long. I can't fault the new owners for not wanting to go negative on their first day. These guys want to build a positive message and sell fans on who they are. I know folks around here think that starts with the sacking of O'Brien, but such a first-day move would likely take all the air out of the room and displace any other message these guys want to send. Moreover, I don't know of any new sports owner who has fired a GM at the initial press conference. The first press conference is a part of the owners' day in the sun. I think O'Brien will be fired in the next few weeks, but I'm not disheartened that it didn't happen today. I liked Castellini's message and his intention to take charge and be hands-on. I like that he stripped Allen of all responsibility for baseball operations. I like that he said he was going to work out of the Reds' offices at GABP every day until he fully understands the team. I like that he criticized the team's minor league depth. I really like that he said Dan O'Brien will now be reporting directly to him. Today was not so bad.

[M2]

The first press conference is what you make it.

Castellini chose to wade into the pool. That's his prerogative, but I'd have advised doing a double flip into a cannonball off the high dive. That'll catch some attention.

One of the problems with the Reds is that they've lost the attention of the local market and much of the baseball world. Vowing that the same sorry team that has driven so many away (including Castellini) will somehow be better just isn't going to cut it. Instead of a soundbite during the nightly local sports broadcasts and the perfunctory sports section coverage, I'd have been aiming for page one lead story, the lead on the local news broadcasts, a big splash on Sportscenter and oodles of national coverage.

I don't think Castellini's a bad owner because he didn't do that, but I'm guessing he created exactly no buzz around the team with this presser. People were in wait-and-see mode before it happened and they're still in wait-and-see mode. They will be until he starts doing stuff.

[RFS62]

That's the problem, the Reds don't have time. They need to get to work RIGHT NOW.

BTW, I like my steaks medium and my beverage of choice is Newcastle. And I like the works on my potato. Is there a Ruth's Chris down there?




Nope, but don't worry, we've got a few steakhouses you may find acceptable. BTW, was our bet that he'd sack DanO on the first day, or was there a time element?






Again, I know you aren't saying you think this is right and that you're just trying to make sense of the seemingly senseless, but this is just horrible business if that's the case. You don't go into business to protect people's feelings. If this is truly why he's doing what he's doing, he's got no business owning a baseball team.

As I've said in the past, it's not so much that DanO will still be GM....although that's not a good thing. It's what his retention represents of the new owner.

And I'm a firm believer that if you know you're going to fire someone, you do it now. It's not fair to the person being fired to string them along, and you're not doing them any favors by doing so. Just get it over with and let everyone move on.


You're preaching to the choir. I've been raving like a lunatic the last week hoping against hope that he'd walk into that news conference and announce his firing. We had a thread that was closed predicting the day of his firing, and I believe I chose Feb. 1. I can understand if he wants to bask in the glow of positive press before announcing a move. And, he may well be already looking for a replacement behind the scenes, who knows?

And yes, I'm grasping for straws. I'm hoping against hope that there are solid, sensible reasons for the timing and method to Castellini's approach. I, like you and M2, think that he missed an opportunity to make a statement. But if it happens soon, the timing will be forgotten in the aftermath.

I liked a lot of what I heard. But talk is cheap. Let's see some action.

He deserves some time before we start railing on him.

[MWM]

Nope, but don't worry, we've got a few steakhouses you may find acceptable. BTW, was our bet that he'd sack DanO on the first day, or was there a time element?

I'm not sure we set an exact time. I think it was more will he be fired once the new owners take over. I think the start of spring training, or even the season, would be sufficient for me. I say he lasts the entire season and handles the draft and everything.

I agree on giving him time before we start railing him. But I'm not ignoring the signs. I resepct that most people on this board want to be optimistic and like what they heard. I'm just not one to be optimistic simply because I want the changes to be good. I'm just not wired that way. My biggest worry is that he's a guy who's followed baseball his whole life and thinks he really knows how to run a baseball team and now he has a team of his own, so he's going to make the moves that coincide with his baseball philosophy. That REALLY worries me. Guys who are as successful as he's been in his businesses almost always have massive egos. They think they know everything about everything, including the sports they follow. If he comes in and takes control of the baseball stuff, we're in trouble.

[MikeS21]

The Milton signing, to me, is a prime example of what happens when you do something just for the sake of "doing something."

I believe O'Brien went after Matt Clement, and when that door closed, he remembered all those criticisms about "Do Nothing Dan" and decided to do something. And Milton was the biggest name still on the market. Obviously, there was a reason a big name like Milton was still on the market. (Which also goes to show you that spending more money isn't the answer to increasing attendance).

After the fiasco at the winter meetings where he dissed the entire Dodgers organization, I stopped defending Jim Bowden. He had to go. But simply firing Bowden was not the answer. You had to replace Bowden with someone who had a clue. By the same token, firing O'Brien is not the answer. Simply replacing him with a Maddox/Kuhlman tandem will not work. The situation is far different than a couple years ago, when Maddox and Kuhlman were frantically trying to give away players in a 48 hour period.

I'm all for dumping O'Brien ONLY if there is a better option. Who is available that can step in right now and turn the franchise around? And how do we know that person won't turn out to be worse than O'Brien?

[RFS62]

I'm all for dumping O'Brien ONLY if there is a better option. Who is available that can step in right now and turn the franchise around? And how do we know that person won't turn out to be worse than O'Brien?


Well, you've set the bar pretty low if that's all you are looking for.

I yearn for the press conference in which Castellini starts with "DanO sleeps with the fishes".

[Falls City Beer]

Well, you've set the bar pretty low if that's all you are looking for.

I yearn for the press conference in which Castellini starts with "DanO sleeps with the fishes".

No kidding. That's textbook paralysis strategy.

[dougdirt]

The simple fact that John Allen is no longer on the baseball side of things and that Obrien reports directly to the owner tells me that Obrien was unable to do the things that he wanted to. More that he was being put in the situation to do things that Lindner wanted him to do, regardless of what Obrien thought was the best thing for the club.

[KronoRed]

That's a best case scenario, the worse case being Allen was holding Dan O back from making even more horrid deals.

The truth probably hangs out in between.

[bigjonempire]

I think its almost an absolute certainty that Dan O'Brien will be fired. Castellini is doing the right thing by having a competent person in the office that can handle the day to day baseball operations while he evaluates the people and system in place. I don't think there can be any doubt that O'Brien has been held back by ownership in the past. We've seen to much evidence of it already with the proposed Griffey trades (which I'm glad didn't happen). O'Brien will probably get a few months to show what he can do with resources and ownership behind him. He'll still be fired simply because the Reds can do better. That will happen when Castellini has a candidate ready to take over.

[M2]

The simple fact that John Allen is no longer on the baseball side of things and that Obrien reports directly to the owner tells me that Obrien was unable to do the things that he wanted to. More that he was being put in the situation to do things that Lindner wanted him to do, regardless of what Obrien thought was the best thing for the club.

So Allen/Lindner ordered that DanO go out and get Lidle, Milton and Ortiz? They made bringing back Paul Wilson a priority? They executed the nothing trades of Chris Reitsma, Todd Jones, Joe Randa and Sean Casey? Bull.

Maybe they stopped him from doing other things he wished to do, but what he's done has been a horror show and that's 100% on his head.

[dougdirt]

Trading Casey and Randa were bad moves?
Reitsma was a bad move.
Yes, I do think they made bringing back Paul Wilson a priority.

[M2]

Trading Casey and Randa were bad moves?

If you think Dave Williams, Justin Germano and Travis Chick are going to be plus pitchers I've got some swampland on the moon you might be interested in.

Maybe Chick will round into something, but he was violently overpromoted last season and there's rumbling that his arm is hanging by a thread.

[RFS62]

Marc's blog just had an interesting update.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/01/its-good-thing.asp

[MWM]

I hope he's right.


if Castellini isn't pleased with the job they're doing, they're going to hear about it and they'd better get it fixed.

I guess I just don't get this. Does he think his mere presence is going to make incometent people all of a sudden competent? The idea that "attitude" is going to change things with the same people inplace just isn't practical.

The Reds problems aren't a matter of attitude or effort. It's mostly a matter of not having the right people in place. No amount of greater expectations from a new owner is going to change that fact. It's like people who think kids just need a stern parent around and they'll straighten up. The come in and say "I'm not going to put up with this anymore." That's not going to fix the Reds. If the people in place were capable of doing better, they would have don it already. His presence isn't going to make people perform better.

[dougdirt]

If you think Dave Williams, Justin Germano and Travis Chick are going to be plus pitchers I've got some swampland on the moon you might be interested in.

Maybe Chick will round into something, but he was violently overpromoted last season and there's rumbling that his arm is hanging by a thread.

I didnt say plus pitchers. I do think Williams will fit in somewhere right behind Harang and Claussen however. Casey was majorly overpaid and needed to go. Germano does not have the "stuff" that Chick does, but Chick doesnt have the composure that Germano does either. Chick needs to get better control in his arm before he can be anything, but he is still young. Germano is 23 and pitched a full season at triple A with some success. He will probably get at least another full season down there, with some improvement, he could be a #4 or #5 guy by the time he is 25 or 26.

[Cyclone792]

Marc's blog just had an interesting update.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/01/its-good-thing.asp

Sorry I didn't have time to get to this last night, but I was desperately in need of a little decompression down at Arthur's after hammering out four stories.

Arthur's isn't a bad place to decompress at. Kudos, Marc!

And I love the following piece Marc included ...

I thought what Jerry Narron told me yesterday was pretty illuminating. He said when he came over from Boston before the 2004 season, he was stunned at how people in the organization approached their jobs. The focus on being the best wasn't there, and that drove Jerry nuts. He's probably more excited than anyone to work under Castellini, even though his job security is basically nil.

"I came from the Red Sox, and it was all about winning, performing on the field," he said. "It was more than just existing. When I got here, it was almost like the feeling was just existing."

If Castellini can bring that type of atmosphere to Reds baseball and develop a front office with the type of attitude Boston has, I'd have to say that the vast majority of Reds fans will be quite pleased.

Hopefully he can do it ... hopefully ...

[M2]

I didnt say plus pitchers. I do think Williams will fit in somewhere right behind Harang and Claussen however. Casey was majorly overpaid and needed to go. Germano does not have the "stuff" that Chick does, but Chick doesnt have the composure that Germano does either. Chick needs to get better control in his arm before he can be anything, but he is still young. Germano is 23 and pitched a full season at triple A with some success. He will probably get at least another full season down there, with some improvement, he could be a #4 or #5 guy by the time he is 25 or 26.

Minus pitchers don't help a team do anything but lose. The idea shouldn't be to collect more bad pitchers to fit in behind your good ones, it should be to collect more good ones to join them, perhaps even to slot in front of them. On that score Dan O'Brien has been a miserable failure.

[dougdirt]

MWM, I think that Castellini thinks that everyone was not concentrating on their specific job at hand because Lindner had everyone doing this that and the other. Which is why he no longer has Obrien going to Allen and then Allen coming to him, but instead having Obrien go straight to him with ideas and potential deals rather than the guy in charge of the money.

[dougdirt]

M2, a solid #4 or #5 guy is not a minus pitcher and they dont help you lose.

[MWM]

So there problem was concentration? Lack of concentration forced DanO to sign Milton, trade for Ortiz, resign Paul Wilson, etc..... Nah, it's incompetence.We can try to make excuses all we want, but competent people aren't held back because of "concentration". They get the job done and don't make excuses. They don't need them nor do they want them.

[dougdirt]

I have said it before, and I guess I get to say it again. I feel that Wilson was signed because Lindner wanted him to be signed because he was geting bashed for not offering him a contract in the early going of the offseason after he went 11-6 the year before. Obrien had no other choice but to sign the best FA pitcher left on the market once he got extramoney to spend, and that guy was Eric Milton.

[OnBaseMachine]

I voted yes.

O'Brien will be here all year, that means running our draft again. Four high school torn labrums and a college pinch runner in the first five rounds. How exciting!!! :rolleyes:

Maybe a Dunn for Willie Harris deal?

Or how about signing Jose Lima to a similar deal to Milton's?

[RFS62]

I have said it before, and I guess I get to say it again. I feel that Wilson was signed because Lindner wanted him to be signed because he was geting bashed for not offering him a contract in the early going of the offseason after he went 11-6 the year before. Obrien had no other choice but to sign the best FA pitcher left on the market once he got extramoney to spend, and that guy was Eric Milton.


Sure he had a choice. If he didn't think Milton was a good fit, he could have showed some balls and gone back to Lindner and told him to hold on to the money. But he didn't. He signed him, and grinned like a cheshire cat at the press conference. There were front office people even coming in here the night of the announcement to see how it was received. He thought he had made a major score.

[dougdirt]

Sure he had a choice. If he didn't think Milton was a good fit, he could have showed some balls and gone back to Lindner and told him to hold on to the money. But he didn't. He signed him, and grinned like a cheshire cat at the press conference. There were front office people even coming in here the night of the announcement to see how it was received. He thought he had made a major score.
How do you know he didnt tell Lindner that? Eric Milton pitched worse than anyone could have ever have imagined. No one saw a 6.50 ERA coming.

[Cyclone792]

M2, a solid #4 or #5 guy is not a minus pitcher and they dont help you lose.

But those types of pitchers certainly won't help our team win. Given our home park's ridiculously high HR index and the fact that we have one of the worst fielding defenses in the league, #4 and #5 guys are set up to fail here more than most other places.

We need pitchers that ...

A) Make bats miss
B) Keep the ball on the ground
C) Keep the ball in the park

#4 and #5 arms are bottom of the rotation arms because they oftentimes fail at most, if not all, of those factors, otherwise they would be better than #4 and #5 arms. If we had one of the best fielding defenses in the league and a park that was at least neutral in HRA, then those types of pitchers would have some value at eating innings and letting our offense rake for a win.

But that's not the case given our current park's HR index and our terrible defense; those types of pitchers just get slaughtered here.

[RFS62]

How do you know he didnt tell Lindner that? Eric Milton pitched worse than anyone could have ever have imagined. No one saw a 6.50 ERA coming.


Holy crap.

I can think of at least a dozen posters here who were very familiar with Milton and they all flipped out the night of the announcment.

And now DanO is the laughingstock of baseball for signing a flyball pitcher with a debilitating injury to pitch in the GAB.

[Cyclone792]

How do you know he didnt tell Lindner that? Eric Milton pitched worse than anyone could have ever have imagined. No one saw a 6.50 ERA coming.

Milton gave up 1.93 HR/9 in 2004. He also has an injury that will never get better, and the downside to that injury is that his strikeout totals are cut down.

We brought him to a ballpark that gives up tons of home runs and gave him a defense that is one of the worst in all of baseball. Surprise, surprise ... Milton gives up 1.93 HR/9 again in 2005, his strikeout rate drops resulting in more BIP, and with our lousy fielding defense behind him, his H/9 rate spikes up to almost 11.5.

It was certainly easy to see the 2005 Milton before it happened.

[dougdirt]

Well that is fine that some posters here thought that. However, the ballpark was not the problem for Eric Milton. His ERA on the road was half a point higher. He gave up HR's on the road as much as he did at home. Milton got shelled everywhere he pitched this past year. GABP or anywhere else was irrelevant, so dont throw the park crap at me, becuase it wasnt the park that caused Milton to suck last year. It was Eric Milton that caused Eric Milton to suck last year.

[RFS62]

Milton got shelled everywhere he pitched this past year. GABP or anywhere else was irrelevant, so dont throw the park crap at me, becuase it wasnt the park that caused Milton to suck last year. It was Eric Milton that caused Eric Milton to suck last year.


Uh, dude.

Nobody is blaming the park for signing Milton. That was your uncle Dan.

[M2]

M2, a solid #4 or #5 guy is not a minus pitcher and they dont help you lose.

So guys with sub-average performance help you win?

I submit the past five seasons of the Cincinnati Reds as evidence to the contrary ... and the prosecution rests.

[M2]

So there problem was concentration? Lack of concentration forced DanO to sign Milton, trade for Ortiz, resign Paul Wilson, etc..... Nah, it's incompetence.We can try to make excuses all we want, but competent people aren't held back because of "concentration". They get the job done and don't make excuses. They don't need them nor do they want them.

You mean like Brad Kullman and Leland Maddox?

They were stuck in the worst box I can imagine -- trade players for money -- and they managed to come out of it with talent.

[Cyclone792]

Well that is fine that some posters here thought that. However, the ballpark was not the problem for Eric Milton. His ERA on the road was half a point higher. He gave up HR's on the road as much as he did at home. Milton got shelled everywhere he pitched this past year. GABP or anywhere else was irrelevant, so dont throw the park crap at me, becuase it wasnt the park that caused Milton to suck last year. It was Eric Milton that caused Eric Milton to suck last year.

Milton Home HR/9: 2.04
Milton Road HR/9: 1.83

Milton was terrible both at home and on the road, I know, but his HRA rate at home was 11.5 percent higher than on the road.

And like RFS said, the park didn't sign Milton, the General Manager did. And if the General Manager isn't competent enough to figure out that Eric Milton can give up over 2 HR/9 in our stadium, then he's ill-equipped to do his job.

[M2]

Anyone who thought Eric Milton was the best pitcher on the market was A) wrong and B) should have known to stay away from handing a contract that big to a pitcher that bad.

[dougdirt]

Most "experts" were saying that Milton was the best pitcher on the market at the time the Reds decided to bump up payroll.

I never said that the park signed Milton, that was in response to your comment of: And now DanO is the laughingstock of baseball for signing a flyball pitcher with a debilitating injury to pitch in the GAB.

There is an 11.5% difference, but looking at the numbers, it was 2 more home runs in 1 less inning.

[pedro]

Most "experts" were saying that Milton was the best pitcher on the market at the time the Reds decided to bump up payroll.

I never said that the park signed Milton, that was in response to your comment of: And now DanO is the laughingstock of baseball for signing a flyball pitcher with a debilitating injury to pitch in the GAB.

There is an 11.5% difference, but looking at the numbers, it was 2 more home runs in 1 less inning.

Most "experts" will also tell you that if dog poop is the best thing on the menu, maybe you should just skip the meal, even if you do have it budgeted.

[dougdirt]

My point being is that Lindner saw no one was renewing season tickets. He freaked out a little bit, upped payroll and told Obrien to go get the biggest name on the market. Thats what he did.

With that said, I am done with this topic as I have nothing left to say that I wont be repeating.

[M2]

Most "experts" will also tell you that if dog poop is the best thing on the menu, maybe you should just skip the meal, even if you do have it budgeted.

Exactly. Anybody who thought Milton was worth that money needed to be whacked with a bamboo cane.

[pedro]

My point being is that Lindner saw no one was renewing season tickets. He freaked out a little bit, upped payroll and told Obrien to go get the biggest name on the market. Thats what he did.



Really, unless you know something the rest of us don't, and I suspect you don't unless you are yourself Dan O'Brien, we'll just have to file your post under "speculation".

[MWM]

If DanO wasn't able to convince Lindner of the folly of that logic, then he's pretty uselss anyway as a GM. The only other possibility was that DanO WANTED the signing. Either way, it's not a pretty picture of DanO.

[creek14]

Still looking for the *Dear God I hope not but I fear he will be* option.

[M2]

The only other possibility was that DanO WANTED the signing.

You mean the Occam's Razor possibility? That the GM signed the guy to a $25.5 million contract because he thought the guy would pitch well?

[Redmachine2003]

I say keep DanO until after the draft which seemed to be his strong point.

[pedro]

I say keep DanO until after the draft which seemed to be his strong point.

I'm not sure what he's done to make you think that. He appears to have been very lucky with Wood last year and that's about it.

[Redmachine2003]

Wood had the best start of the Draft picks but others had very good debut too. I think this year you will see the his picks start to move up in the system. You have Bruce, BJ, Homer, Rosales, Wood, Lecure, Ward, Avery, Woody, Young, Rafael Gonzalez, Philippe-Alexan Valiquette, Roberts, and Jones. These are some of the ones I think will start make some noise this year. For the most part DanO drafted so young that it is going to take a year or two longer to really start to show.

[KronoRed]

So now it's all Allen's fault and all Lindner's fault? none of it was Dan O?

I don't think so, I think it was a collective effort by all 3 and the Reds will be better off when the remaining two are long gone.

[pedro]

Wood had the best start of the Draft picks but others had very good debut too. I think this year you will see the his picks start to move up in the system. You have Bruce, BJ, Homer, Rosales, Wood, Lecure, Ward, Avery, Woody, Young, Rafael Gonzalez, Philippe-Alexan Valiquette, Roberts, and Jones. These are some of the ones I think will start make some noise this year. For the most part DanO drafted so young that it is going to take a year or two longer to really start to show.

I hope you're right, but I still contend that Dan O should have been drafting more college players who are closer to being major league ready if he's going to try, as he has claimed, to win with this core roster.

If he's not going to completely rebuild the roster then he can't be drafting players who are 5 years from ever having a chance to contribute at the major league level. By doing so he's just leaving us in continual limbo.

By the time the players DanO is drafting have any chance of contributing, all the current players will be gone, and at this rate, for next to nothing. It's just bad management IMO.

[RedsBaron]

I just voted "no".

[RFS62]

I just voted "no".


I always knew you were a visionary

[KronoRed]

I don't think so, I think it was a collective effort by all 3 and the Reds will be better off when the remaining two are long gone.
2 down..1 to go ;)

[RedsBaron]

I always knew you were a visionary
"I have vision, and the rest of the world wears bifocals"-Paul Newman as "Butch Cassidy" in "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" (1969).;)

[dougdirt]

Really, unless you know something the rest of us don't, and I suspect you don't unless you are yourself Dan O'Brien, we'll just have to file your post under "speculation".

Just to put this up here, that my speculation may have actually held water and the fact that I was bashed numerous times for bringing it up, I am going to post this



O'Brien was asked today whether ownership dropped the authorization to spend all that money on him last offseason late in the game -- thus leading to the Milton deal, et al. Let's just say he went to great lengths to avoid answering.

“The only thing I’m going to say in regards to that situation is, there are a lot of circumstances that at this point are not known and won’t be divulged,” O’Brien said, “and I’ll just leave it at that.”


Now its not a full out confession, but at least maybe everyone wont think I am so crazy anymore.

[RedsFan8978]

I voted No. I just have a feeling he's going to be canned...;)

[KronoRed]

I voted No. I just have a feeling he's going to be canned...;)
WOW!

Lotto numbers please :D

[RedsBaron]

Seriously, I believe I voted yes a few weeks ago. I really didn't expect RC to be as decisive as he has been. I like it.:)

[smith288]

Voted no... tell me when the results are in.