Predicted Positives for 2006

[11BarryLarkin11]

Ok, here are a few things I'm looking forward to in the 2006 season. Feel free to add your own. It's time for a new outlook for 2006.

1) Felipe Lopez: The development of the next great Cincinnati Reds shortstop. Some wonder if Felipe had a fluke season last year, but I don't think it was. Felipe has always had great pop in his bat. However, he finally stopped swinging at everything last year and let the game come to him.

Year: #P/PA_BB/PA
2001: 3.60 _ .063
2002: 3.96 _ .075
2003: 4.06 _ .123
2004: 4.16 _ .085
2005: 3.95 _ .088

If he maintains a disciplined approach and makes the pitchers come to him, then he should have another stellar season in Cincy. I'd love to see him take a much needed step forward defensively in 2006, but at the very least, he should have a very nice offensive season in 2006. It's hard to beat having another great shortstop in Cincy, it just seems right.

2) Aaron Harang: Harang was our de facto ace in 2005 and should continue his strong pitching. If he takes yet another step forward, then he'll be a legimate #1 in this league. But, at the very least, he'll be a very good #2.

Year: BB/9__K/9
2002: 5.19__7.35
2003: 2.25__4.95
2004: 2.96__6.99
2005: 2.16__6.93

If Harang can maintain the strong K rate and pair it with the very strong BB rate, both of which he should be able to do, then he'll be a very tough pitcher again in 2006.

3) Ryan Wagner and Todd Coffey: I don't know if I'm in the minority on this one, but I think Wagner will be dynamite in 2006. He was VERY good in the first two months of 2005, before he hurt his shoulder and concealed the injury. However, I think this is the year that he takes a big step forward.

Ryan Wagner
Career
K/9: 7.64
BB/9: 4.23
GB/FB: 2.16
ERA: 4.69
HR/9: 0.98

Ryan Wagner
2005 April
IPs: 12.1
ERA: 3.65
HR/9: 0.00
K/9: 8.18
BB/9: 2.23

May
IPs: 16.2
ERA: 3.45
HR/9: 0.56
K/9: 7.78
BB/9: 2.78

If you look at his ratios from the first two months of 2005 (after which, he hurt his shoulder and concealed the injury), they are better across the board than his career stats. The most positive sign is the BB/9 rate. His career BB/9 is 4.23, but in April and May, he dropped it to 2.23 and 2.78 respectively. To me that's a clear sign that he is gaining command for his pitches, which is what had previously limited his effectiveness. Wagner will be VERY, VERY GOOD in 2006.

As for Todd Coffey, his stats weren't great. But, there are positives to take from 2005.

2005
K/9: 4.03
BB/9: 1.71
GB/FB: 2.11

He posted a strong GB/FB ratio and a very strong BB/9 ratio. All he needs to do in 2006 to take a step forward is to improve his K rate, which he may be able to do in 2006 if he has regained the feel for his splitter. His minor league career K/9 is 8.31, so he does have the ability to miss bats. If he can get his K/9 ratio up to 5.5 or 6 and maintain his other ratios, then he'll be a very effective reliever in 2006.

If Wagner and Coffey step forward like I think they will, then the Reds will have two power, groundball relievers. A very valuable commodity due to the Reds starting staff and home ballpark.

4.) Edwin Encarnacion playing very well. If you look at his rookie numbers, there is much with which to be impressed. If Edwin can improve on these numbers, then he'll be a very strong player in 2006 and likely to only get better.

Things to like about Edwin Encarnacion:
* His OBP was .076 points higher than his BA.
* He saw 3.99 pitches per plate appearance.
* He slugged .436 with 9 HRs and 16 2bs.
* His secondary average was .313.
* He stole three bases and didn't get caught.
* His age. He's 23 years old.
* His experience. He did all of this in his first time facing with MLB pitching.
* His salary, which is next to nothing.

Edwin proved to be a patient hitter who can mash the ball when he gets the one he wants. He also stole three bases and didn't get caught, which isn't too bad either.

Given that he is 23 and this was his first MLB season, I don't see how you can reasonably expect better. He's very likely to take a big step forward this season. And, given his patience and power, he could be very good in a hurry. His defense and batting average aren't great, but both can, and should, improve with experience.

Edwin Encarnacion's stats given a full season of 2005 rate of performance:

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .232/.308/.436/.744
PA: 550
BBs: 47
HBP: 7
SF: 0
ABs: 496
Hits: 115
HRs: 21

That's a pretty darn good performance for a rookie and he'll only get BETTER. Edwin and Felipe are looking good for the future on the leftside of the infield. If they improve their defense, the Reds will be set for quite a while over there.


There are other things that I think are likely to happen (i.e. B.J.Szymanski taking a big step forward, Homer Bailey performing well, etc), but the aforementioned are the ones of which I'm most certain.

There are most definitely positives heading in 2006. We may not be a World Series winner, but we do have some nice pieces in place. It's not all doom and gloom for the Redlegs, despite the presence of O'B and Milton.

[dougdirt]

I agree with you whole heartedly about Edwin Encarnacion. He did very well for his first year and I think will do much better this year as far as batting average goes, with a slight increase in home runs. I look for 25-30 this year if he plays a full season.

I think that if, and its a big if, Szymanski can stay healthy, he will improve and show some of that potential that he has. He has been lingered by injuries since he was drafted and hasnt shown what we all thought he was capable of.
Bailey needs to get a little better control. He is walking to many people and it almost always comes back to bite him in the end. If he can cut down his walks, even just by a 1 fewer per 9, his ERA will drop off significantly this season.

Something I posted on another site, that I think some may be interested in seeing regarding the pitching staff and the decent outlook for this season.

Check out the splits between Gullett as pitching coach and with Ruhle as pitching coach. Given a full season with Ruhle, I think the pitching will improve a lot over last season.

Eric Milton

Innings pitched
Gullett- 87.2
Ruhle - 104.2

Home runs allowed
Gullett- 25 or 2.56 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 15 or 1.29 home runs per 9 innings.

ERA
Gullett- 7.29
Ruhle- 5.42

So Milton was incredibly better once Ruhle took over as his pitching coach.

Ramon Ortiz
Innings pitched
Gullett- 56.2
Ruhle- 114.2

Home runs allowed
Gullett- 14 or 2.22 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 20 or 1.57 home runs per 9 innings

ERA
Gullett- 6.51
Ruhle- 4.78

Like Milton, Oritz also was incredibly better under Verne Ruhle.

Aaron Harang
Innings pitched
Gullett- 84
Ruhle- 127.2

Home Runs allowed
Gullett- 7 or 0.75 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 16 or 1.12 home runs per 9 innings

ERA
Gullett- 3.85
Ruhle- 3.80

Aaron Harang seemed to be about the same pitcher with a slightly better ERA over 43 more innings.

Brandon Claussen
Innings pitched
Gullett-59.2
Ruhle- 107

Home runs
Gullett- 9 or 1.36 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 15 or 1.26 home runs per 9 innings

ERA
Gullett- 4.07
Ruhle- 4.29

Brandon Claussen gave up fewer home runs, but slightly more runs under Ruhle than with Gullett, but the difference was very marginal.

[11BarryLarkin11]

I agree with you whole heartedly about Edwin Encarnacion. He did very well for his first year and I think will do much better this year as far as batting average goes, with a slight increase in home runs. I look for 25-30 this year if he plays a full season.

I think that if, and its a big if, Szymanski can stay healthy, he will improve and show some of that potential that he has. He has been lingered by injuries since he was drafted and hasnt shown what we all thought he was capable of.
Bailey needs to get a little better control. He is walking to many people and it almost always comes back to bite him in the end. If he can cut down his walks, even just by a 1 fewer per 9, his ERA will drop off significantly this season.

Something I posted on another site, that I think some may be interested in seeing regarding the pitching staff and the decent outlook for this season.

Check out the splits between Gullett as pitching coach and with Ruhle as pitching coach. Given a full season with Ruhle, I think the pitching will improve a lot over last season.

Eric Milton

Innings pitched
Gullett- 87.2
Ruhle - 104.2

Home runs allowed
Gullett- 25 or 2.56 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 15 or 1.29 home runs per 9 innings.

ERA
Gullett- 7.29
Ruhle- 5.42

So Milton was incredibly better once Ruhle took over as his pitching coach.

Ramon Ortiz
Innings pitched
Gullett- 56.2
Ruhle- 114.2

Home runs allowed
Gullett- 14 or 2.22 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 20 or 1.57 home runs per 9 innings

ERA
Gullett- 6.51
Ruhle- 4.78

Like Milton, Oritz also was incredibly better under Verne Ruhle.

Aaron Harang
Innings pitched
Gullett- 84
Ruhle- 127.2

Home Runs allowed
Gullett- 7 or 0.75 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 16 or 1.12 home runs per 9 innings

ERA
Gullett- 3.85
Ruhle- 3.80

Aaron Harang seemed to be about the same pitcher with a slightly better ERA over 43 more innings.

Brandon Claussen
Innings pitched
Gullett-59.2
Ruhle- 107

Home runs
Gullett- 9 or 1.36 home runs per 9 innings
Ruhle- 15 or 1.26 home runs per 9 innings

ERA
Gullett- 4.07
Ruhle- 4.29

Brandon Claussen gave up fewer home runs, but slightly more runs under Ruhle than with Gullett, but the difference was very marginal.

Actually, I think the change in pitching coaches had little to do with the improved pitching performance of the team.

I think the improvement had much more to do with a simple regression to the mean. Many of the Reds pitchers started out terribly and simply could not sustain that level of ineptitude over the long haul, so they improved. A few pitchers were given new roles, Graves was DFA, and the rest gradually started to bounce back.

I think the idea that Vern is a pitching coach who can have that kind of positive impact will be exposed as a myth. Even Leo Mazzone would have a hard time producing anything of value out of the talent we have on the roster. We need a good pitching coach, but also the talent to go with it. A coach is only as good as his talent.

In your example, Milton and Ortiz definitely improved, but could they realistically have gotten worse? Also, Harang and Claussen were essentially the same (or maybe even slightly better) under Gullett.

So, while it is certainly possible that Ruhle had a postive impact, I think it much more likely that it was a coincidental improvement.

Of course, I could be easily be wrong. ;) So, I'll be very interested to see if the Reds pitchers take a big step forward next season under Ruhle. If they do, I'll be the first in line to give him a ton of credit. But, until then, I tend to lean towards luck and coincidence as the real culprits. :)

[Unassisted]

I hope you're right with all of that.

I'm hoping to see significant improvement in all of the young pitchers. With more maturity in each of them and more tutelage by Ruhle, that seems like a reasonable expectation.

I'm pulling for Wily Mo and Austin to knock our socks off with their offensive performances. It would be great to have them anchor a fearsome part of the lineup for opposing pitchers.

[TeamBoone]

;) I'm looking forward to Adam Dunn having a breakout season.

[M2]

I don't take much heart in the fact that two awful pitchers managed to be less awful (though still awful). IMO, Reds fans spend way too much time parsing gradients of lousy. We go through this every season. People insist that the Reds bad pitchers will be tolerably bad. It never works out that way. Bad pitchers fall apart and there's not a thing that Vern Ruhle can do about it.

The only hope for this staff is what 11BL11 mentioned, young guys getting better.

[Falls City Beer]

Imagine if you will that Harang grabs his shoulder in his final Spring Training start.

How fine a point would that put on this team's problems?

[Aronchis]

Imagine if you will that Harang grabs his shoulder in his final Spring Training start.

How fine a point would that put on this team's problems?

Imagine if you will that Oswalt grabs his shoulder in his final Spring Training start

How fine a point would that put on the teams problems?

[Falls City Beer]

Imagine if you will that Oswalt grabs his shoulder in his final Spring Training start

How fine a point would that put on the teams problems?


Well, the difference, of course, is that the Astros have another ace right behind Oswalt--and yet another returning in May. And they have a plus bullpen.

I see Belisle and Williams emerging as the Reds' "aces" if my scenario unfolds.

[dougdirt]

Well, the difference, of course, is that the Astros have another ace right behind Oswalt--and yet another returning in May. And they have a plus bullpen.

I see Belisle and Williams emerging as the Reds' "aces" if my scenario unfolds.

Oh, and you know Clemens is coming back how? Are you Roger Clemens? If so, can I have an autograph please? If not, you need to stop assuming things. Yeah, they still have Pettite, but after him the next lowest ERA is 4.76 with Brandon Backe, then going with two guys with 5.50+ ERA's.

[Falls City Beer]

Oh, and you know Clemens is coming back how? Are you Roger Clemens? If so, can I have an autograph please? If not, you need to stop assuming things. Yeah, they still have Pettite, but after him the next lowest ERA is 4.76 with Brandon Backe, then going with two guys with 5.50+ ERA's.


Look, until the Astros demonstrate that they no longer know how to win, then I'm going to assume they have a plan to compete. Somehow.

[KronoRed]

;) I'm looking forward to Adam Dunn having a breakout season.
Maybe he can get 2 sac flys :devil:

[KronoRed]

I'm looking forward to seeing Kearns and Pena getting regular playing time, and finally seeing if either is for real.

Of course I expect Narron to ruin that by putting Freel in the outfield and playing Womack/Aurilia 95% of the time.

[dougdirt]

Look, until the Astros demonstrate that they no longer know how to win, then I'm going to assume they have a plan to compete. Somehow.
The Reds have a plan to compete, somehow also. You know, the Astros were like 16 games under .500 last year at one point. The plan they had in place sure worked out in the end though. The Reds have a plan. Just becuase it isnt working right this second doesnt mean that it wont in the end.

[SteelSD]

The Reds have a plan to compete, somehow also. You know, the Astros were like 16 games under .500 last year at one point. The plan they had in place sure worked out in the end though. The Reds have a plan. Just becuase it isnt working right this second doesnt mean that it wont in the end.

If the Reds have had a "plan to compete" to this point, it's been a stupid plan.

If there's any hope of success in the future (near or far), it'll have to be due to the implementation of a much better plan, properly conceived by much smarter people.

[dougdirt]

Building from the minors up is not a stupid plan, it just takes more than 2 years to kick in.

[SteelSD]

Building from the minors up is not a stupid plan, it just takes more than 2 years to kick in.

It's a stupid plan when you don't draft particularly well while you concurrently mess up pretty much every more you make and miss every real opportunity window you have to augment your team at the MLB level.

Each MLB team participates in the amateur draft every season. Before you can even begin to rely on draft picks as part of your "plan", you have to be able to do a better job of both drafting and developing than your average team.

There hasn't been anything resembling a smart "plan" at work for quite a while now. It's been nothing short of mediocrity, lip service, and stupidity.

The Reds MLB product is a mess. The minor league system is a joke. Both results of a stupid plan and awful implementation.

[KronoRed]

Building from the minors up is not a stupid plan, it just takes more than 2 years to kick in.
Then why spend money on free agents? spend that money on the draft,scounting ext.

Reds don't appear to know what plan they are on.

[buckeyenut]

Great idea for a thread!

I am looking forward to the continued maturation of Dunn, Kearns and Pena, and to this OF taking its rightful place as the best in the majors.

I am looking forward to Claussen taking the same step forward that Harang did last year.

I am looking forward to EE making an early statement and forcing the hand of Narron, and as a result, winning the ROY aware.

I am looking forward to Wagner and Coffey as was mentioned above.

I am looking forward to watch Jr swing the bat, whether it is one time or 500 times. I resolve to appreciate that sweet swing and the opportunity to watch one of the game's true legends live and in person.

I am looking forward to SOMEBODY, ANYBODY, outside of Harang and Claussen, who already have, stepping up and grabbing a job in this rotation and proving they can earn it.

I am looking forward to the fact that at least a few days this year, we will put the best offensive lineup in baseball on the field IMO (Freel, Lopez, Dunn, Jr, Kearns, Pena, EE, LaRue). Few and far between I know due to the presence of Aurillia and Womack, but they have to do it once or twice.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I agree, i'm loving this thread.. great stats.. valued points!

[BigRed]

Didn't EE get too much time to qualify as a Rookie next year?

There are some positive things to look forward to, but there are still so many holes that I will have to see it to believe it.

[VI_RedsFan]

Maybe he can get 2 sac flys :devil:

Or maybe he'll strike out less than 150 times. :D

No, but seriously, I think Dunn will have a great season. All jokes aside, I don't care about how many times he strikes out or how little SFs he has. Just as long as he keeps hitting 40 homers, knocking in 100 RBIs, scoring 100 runs, and OPSing over .900, then I'm totally fine.

But I wouldn't mind if he can improve his batting average a tad.

[M2]

Building from the minors up is not a stupid plan, it just takes more than 2 years to kick in.

It takes a lot more than two years when you have drafts like the Reds did 2004.

It's also an impossible plan when you've shown no aptitude in the trade market or ability to lock up your better young players.

Building through the draft at its best is only part of a plan. It's never a standalone.

[dougdirt]

It's a stupid plan when you don't draft particularly well while you concurrently mess up pretty much every more you make and miss every real opportunity window you have to augment your team at the MLB level.

Each MLB team participates in the amateur draft every season. Before you can even begin to rely on draft picks as part of your "plan", you have to be able to do a better job of both drafting and developing than your average team.

There hasn't been anything resembling a smart "plan" at work for quite a while now. It's been nothing short of mediocrity, lip service, and stupidity.

The Reds MLB product is a mess. The minor league system is a joke. Both results of a stupid plan and awful implementation.
The last two drafts have not been bad at all. Dan Obrien has only been with this club for two drafts. You can talk about a previous GM and how absolutely horrible the minor leagues were then, but the minor leagues have done nothing but improve since Obrien has taken over.

kronored- I think Carl Lindner had no clue what he wanted to do. He wanted Junior to come in and take the team all the way. That didnt work out as well as he had planned unfortunately. Then he decided people werent renewing season tickets....lets spend extra money, all long after Free Agency had started and the Reds were behind the 8 ball, so who was "the best" free agent left? Eric Milton. He was signed.
And if I am not mistaken, I do remember Castellini saying that there would be more put into the scouting/developing parts of the club. I think its all moving in the right direction.

[M2]

The last two drafts have not been bad at all. Dan Obrien has only been with this club for two drafts. You can talk about a previous GM and how absolutely horrible the minor leagues were then, but the minor leagues have done nothing but improve since Obrien has taken over.

I'd argue they've wallowed in a trough since DanO took over. BA ranked the Reds' system 26th when DanO got hired. It climbed to 23rd last season. I'm confident it will drop, possibly into the bottom four, when the new rankings come out in March.

The 2005 performance of the 2004 draft was awful. Not one player had what could be called a good season let alone a big season, most were flat out lousy. The 2005 draft had a good debut (and surprise, surprise it chucked the HS pitching/teach-'em-to-hit ethos that guided the 2004 model).

DanO's fundamental inability to add compelling minor league talent through trade has proven the breaking point for whatever plan he might have had. He has not added properly to the minor league operation. What he's tried to do is get ahead using the same blunt instrument that 29 other teams get to use every season. That's dumb. If you want to get ahead of the pack then you'd better do a lot more than show up for the annual draft party. It's not that such a plan requires time and patience, it's that it's built around an impotent ideal. So much more is required and none of it has been done.

[SteelSD]

The last two drafts have not been bad at all. Dan Obrien has only been with this club for two drafts. You can talk about a previous GM and how absolutely horrible the minor leagues were then, but the minor leagues have done nothing but improve since Obrien has taken over.

Do you even remember the 2004 draft? Unadulterated garbage. Reminds me of the movie 'Time Bandits'- "Don't touch it! It's pure EVIL!"

Again, every team has a draft every year. The Reds have not done anything to put themselves head-and-shoulders above your average team while drafting. If you're a small market team that's relying heavily on creating a quick-dividend paying pipeline as part of your "plan", but then get stuck on High School arms and toolsy position players, you are sunk. Do that with a young core of MLB talent and all you'll get is replacement parts at best as the MLB core gets too expensive for you to keep in the longer-term.

The real benefit of a top-notch minor league system is to prevent death by talent attrition. By itself, it's not enough of a plan to build a successful MLB team. The way Dan O'Brien has been carrying it out is nothing but a death sentence for a franchise. And the way he's been augmenting said plan is spending millions of dollars on players he can "flip" for prospects at the trade deadline, but all he gets in return is the same low-level junk that's already present in the system. That's as wasteful as wasteful gets.

You can count on one hand the number of players in that system who have a better than average shot at one day actually helping the MLB club. Any system in which Miguel Perez makes a top prospect list is, by definition, a putrid display of minor league talent.

Yeah. That's some "plan". Tie all your hopes to building through the draft because you don't have the first clue how to work alternate avenues at the MLB level. Then draft poorly and produce diminishing returns by swapping players you've signed for millions in the offseason who couldn't possibly help save the team from the pitching staff you're responsible for augmenting because you just signed the pitchers necessary to make a bad rotation worse. Wonderful. I dare say that a GM of even average ability couldn't screw things up that badly if he tried.


kronored- I think Carl Lindner had no clue what he wanted to do. He wanted Junior to come in and take the team all the way. That didnt work out as well as he had planned unfortunately. Then he decided people werent renewing season tickets....lets spend extra money, all long after Free Agency had started and the Reds were behind the 8 ball, so who was "the best" free agent left? Eric Milton. He was signed.

Revisionist history. Dan O'Brien- not Carl Lindner- signed Eric Milton. Why? Because Dan O'Brien wasn't smart enough to stay away from Eric Milton- or Ramon Ortiz for that matter. He doesn't know what real MLB starting pitching looks like.

[11BarryLarkin11]

I'd argue they've wallowed in a trough since DanO took over. BA ranked the Reds' system 26th when DanO got hired. It climbed to 23rd last season. I'm confident it will drop, possibly into the bottom four, when the new rankings come out in March.

The 2005 performance of the 2004 draft was awful. Not one player had what could be called a good season let alone a big season, most were flat out lousy. The 2005 draft had a good debut (and surprise, surprise it chucked the HS pitching/teach-'em-to-hit ethos that guided the 2004 model).

DanO's fundamental inability to add compelling minor league talent through trade has proven the breaking point for whatever plan he might have had. He has not added properly to the minor league operation. What he's tried to do is get ahead using the same blunt instrument that 29 other teams get to use every season. That's dumb. If you want to get ahead of the pack then you'd better do a lot more than show up for the annual draft party. It's not that such a plan requires time and patience, it's that it's built around an impotent ideal. So much more is required and none of it has been done.

O'Brien has done a better job drafting pitchers than previous Reds GMs. I'll give him that. It's early to determine how much better, but I think it's pretty clear that he has drafted better pitchers.

However, the thing that baffles me is that the O'B seems to think that improving the farm system and improving the MLB roster are mutually exclusive goals. It's all well and good to improve the farm system, in fact, it's vital for a small/mid-market organization. But, there's no reason why the Reds can't improve their MLB roster at the SAME TIME.

O'Brien seems content to ride out year after year of subpar performance at the MLB level until his farm system has time to bear fruit. It really boggles the mind. It brings to mind the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing OVER AND OVER again and expecting different results. You'd think that most people would see the losing records pop up year after year and realize that changes HAVE to be made in order to improve. And yet, the Reds big offseason additions were Dave Williams and Tony Womack.

I just don't see how O'B really expects this team to improve in the next few years without making significant changes. It is illogical and frustrating, to say the least.

To be an effective GM for a midmarket team, you have to be innovative. You can't do what everyone else is doing, because others have significant financial advantages and eventually that will enable them to do it better. A GM has to be smart enough to change what clearly isn't working and build on what is working. And he has to do it passionately. He has to install people of intelligence and ability at the key front office positions. He has to think outside the box and implement new ideas that will enable the mid-market Reds to compete with larger market organizations. Exploit areas that are traditionally inefficient in MLB. Gain significant advantages where others are not. Push the front office to use business acumen to increase the revenue streams of the Reds. Develop and better utilize statistical analysis. Implement a system to value and evaulate talent better than the next team. Use it to find undervalued talent. Don't be afraid of action. Inaction isn't the way to win in this day and age. Organizations must be consistently active. If you aren't improving the organization, you are standing still. But, most of all, we need SMART baseball people to run the organization. I'd take BRAINS over more PAYROLL any day of the week.

[M2]

O'Brien has done a better job drafting pitchers than previous Reds GMs. I'll give him that. It's early to determine how much better, but I think it's pretty clear that he has drafted better pitchers.

I think that's bull. The pitchers DanO's drafted have done what? Maybe they'll grow up and become something, maybe they won't. Yet that's years down the road. Every team in baseball can make a similar claim and the Reds have always had similar prospects in the system. When these guys get to the high minors and do something to distinguish themselves then we can say DanO's delivered some goods. Until then it's just fond hope.


However, the thing that baffles me is that the O'B seems to think that improving the farm system and improving the MLB roster are mutually exclusive goals. It's all well and good to improve the farm system, in fact, it's vital for a small/mid-market organization. But, there's no reason why the Reds can't improve their MLB roster at the SAME TIME.

O'Brien seems content to ride out year after year of subpar performance at the MLB level until his farm system has time to bear fruit. It really boggles the mind. It brings to mind the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing OVER AND OVER again and expecting different results. You'd think that most people would see the losing records pop up year after year and realize that changes HAVE to be made in order to improve. And yet, the Reds big offseason additions were Dave Williams and Tony Womack.

I just don't see how O'B really expects this team to improve in the next few years without making significant changes. It is illogical and frustrating, to say the least.

I agree with every word of that. It's like he's waiting to hit the lottery.

[11BarryLarkin11]

I think that's bull. The pitchers DanO's drafted have done what? Maybe they'll grow up and become something, maybe they won't. Yet that's years down the road. Every team in baseball can make a similar claim and the Reds have always had similar prospects in the system. When these guys get to the high minors and do something to distinguish themselves then we can say DanO's delivered some goods. Until then it's just fond hope.



I agree with every word of that. It's like he's waiting to hit the lottery.

Well, they haven't done a ton, but they've only been around for a couple of years. I think it's a bit unfair to O'B (and I can't believe I'm actually on the defensive for the guy ;)) to use the criteria you are using. You are obviously a knowledgeable baseball fan, so this isn't anything you don't already know, but pitching takes time to develop. There aren't many Mark Prior's or Huston Street's out there. Guys who essentially step right in at the major league level and have an impact.

It's a bit unreasonable to expect Homer Bailey to be farther along in his development than he is. But, if you want to look at it from a performance point of view, no pitcher had a better debut than Travis Wood last year. And, I think Sam LeCure is an interesting arm. I think O'B has improved the caliber of pitching in the minors. Unfortunately, it's all in the lower levels of the minors because he's only taken part in a couple of drafts. But, there is talent at the lower levels. And, all we really need for a draft to be a success is for Homer Bailey to develop into a top tier starting pitcher. Or, Travis Wood.

[M2]

My criteria for getting excited about pitching prospects is both simple and fair. Either pitch well in the high minors (and on the way up to that level) or pitch exceptionally well in the low minors. Calvin Medlock and Travis Wood are the valedictorians at the moment, but Medlock hasn't reached the high minors and Wood has yet to get in a full season.

If it was unreasonable to expect much of Bailey at this point then it was unreasonable to draft him where the Reds did. Note that Wood walked in and dominated in a way Bailey has yet to display. BTW, other pitchers had equivalent or better debuts than Wood. The Brewers in fact had a whole pile of them.

Again, every organization, even the Reds, always has pitching prospects to glom your hopes onto somewhere in the organization. What makes these kids different from wave after wave of past failures? So far they've done nothing to distinguish themselves from that lot. I've yet to see what makes Homer Bailey necessarily better than Ty Howington.

[dougdirt]

Homer Bailey has pitched 1 season in the minor leagues and he is 19 years old. What do you expect of him? to be in Triple A?
Travis Wood walked in and dominated leagues lower than where Bailey pitched this past season, the comparison is not a good ones really.
As for what makes Bailey better than Howington, lets look at how both faired in Dayton at 19 years old.
Howington- 5-15, 5.27 ERA 142 ip, 150 hits, 86 bb and 119 k
Bailey - 8-4, 4.43 ERA, 103.2 ip, 89 hits, 62 bb and 125 strikeouts.

Lets break it down a little more.
Hits per 9 ip, Howington 9.5, Bailey 7.7.
Strikeouts per 9ip, Howington 7.54, Bailey 10.85.
Walks per 9, Howington 5.4, Bailey 5.38
Bailey had a way better ERA, a ton less hits per 9, a ton more k's per 9 and they both walked almost the exact same number of players. I would say there is a lot of stuff that shows Bailey is better than Ty Howington.

[dougdirt]

double post

[M2]

Homer Bailey has pitched 1 season in the minor leagues and he is 19 years old. What do you expect of him? to be in Triple A?
Travis Wood walked in and dominated leagues lower than where Bailey pitched this past season, the comparison is not a good ones really.
As for what makes Bailey better than Howington, lets look at how both faired in Dayton at 19 years old.
Howington- 5-15, 5.27 ERA 142 ip, 150 hits, 86 bb and 119 k
Bailey - 8-4, 4.43 ERA, 103.2 ip, 89 hits, 62 bb and 125 strikeouts.

Lets break it down a little more.
Hits per 9 ip, Howington 9.5, Bailey 7.7.
Strikeouts per 9ip, Howington 7.54, Bailey 10.85.
Walks per 9, Howington 5.4, Bailey 5.38
Bailey had a way better ERA, a ton less hits per 9, a ton more k's per 9 and they both walked almost the exact same number of players. I would say there is a lot of stuff that shows Bailey is better than Ty Howington.

I love it when people try to argue the kind of bad isn't as bad as really bad. You want to get me excited? Show me something that's good without apology.

First off, what I want is top prospects who can do a lot better than a 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Second, you're right Wood and Bailey aren't a good comparison ... for Bailey. In fact, comparing Bailey to any HS arm that's come in and had immediate success at any level casts him in an ill light.

Third, Howington wasn't 100% that first season (he needed elbow surgery the following March), but what he emerged as the next season when he was healthy was a guy with a 2.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.92 K/9. Now, how Bailey flashed anything like that so far? He has been healthy, no?

[dougdirt]

Everything you bring up about Howington is as an older, more physically mature player than Bailey is right now. I cant argue against your point that Howington showed some real promise in 2001, but you cant compare him as a 20 year old to Bailey as a 19 year old. Bailey showed more in the same league with the same team than Howington did at the same age.

[M2]

Everything you bring up about Howington is as an older, more physically mature player than Bailey is right now. I cant argue against your point that Howington showed some real promise in 2001, but you cant compare him as a 20 year old to Bailey as a 19 year old. Bailey showed more in the same league with the same team than Howington did at the same age.

Oh, I think it's fair to compare the potential upside of a 20 year-old to a 19 year-old.

Did Homer do better in his first pass of the MWL? Sure, but he hardly set it on fire and he'd do exceptionally well to match what Howington did the next season. The point being that he's still got a way to go before he gets ahead of his failed predecessors.