Can Eric Milton get better?

[vaticanplum]

I am eye-gougingly bored today, and it occurred to me that it is but a matter of weeks before Eric Milton arrives to haunt my nightmares again. I had high hopes when that photo of Danny Graves turned up that he might have eaten Eric Milton, but I must prepare myself for the possibility that he is still alive and on the Reds' pitching staff so I decided to use my time to determine whether there's any hope of significant improvement for Milton this year. And maybe I'm blinded by my newfound Castellini-borne optimism, but I think perhaps there is.

So my friend looked at DIPS and got these numbers for me since I'm not so good with statistics, also he pays for this kind of information. And this is what happened with pitchers' ERAs this past season compared to their DIPS from 2004. The ones in bold are the ones for whom the DIPS correctly predicted an improvement or decline for 2005 ERA:

(I copied and pasted these numbers and cannot get them to line up no matter how many spaces I put in, can someone help me with this? But I tried to fix it with slashes, anyway you get the point.)

Pitcher / 2004 ERA / 2004 DIPS ERA / 2005 ERA
Al Leiter / 3.21 / 4.84 / 6.13
Jake Peavy / 2.27 / 3.21 / 2.88
Carlos Zambrano / 2.75 / 3.68 / 3.26
Odalis Perez / 3.25 / 4.24 / 4.56
Jason Marquis / 3.71 / 4.61 / 4.13
Jake Westbrook / 3.38 / 4.19 / 4.49
Jose Lima / 4.07 / 5.03 / 6.99
Brandon Webb / 3.59 / 4.40 / 3.54
Steve Trachsel / 4.00 / 4.79 / 4.14
Carl Pavano / 3.00 / 3.56 / 4.77
Tom Glavine / 3.60 / 4.28 / 3.53
Oliver Perez / 2.98 / 3.50 / 5.85
Russ Ortiz / 4.13 / 4.84 / 6.89
Jeff Suppan / 4.16 / 4.86 / 3.57
Kaz Ishii / 4.71 / 5.44 / 5.14
Underperformers
Mark Hendrickson / 4.81 / 4.49 / 5.90
Corey Lidle / 4.90 / 4.55 / 4.53
Adam Eaton / 4.61 / 4.27 / 4.27
Nate Robertson / 4.90 / 4.53 / 4.48
Brett Myers / 5.52 / 5.10 / 3.72
Darrell May / 5.61 / 5.17 / 6.78
Cliff Lee / 5.43 / 4.91 / 3.79
Esteban Loaiza / 5.70 / 5.16 / 3.77
Jason Jennings / 5.51 / 4.91 / 5.02
Kris Benson / 4.31 / 3.80 / 4.13
John Lackey / 4.67 / 4.11 / 3.44
Jon Lieber / 4.33 / 3.79 / 4.20
Jeremy Bonderman / 4.89 / 4.24 / 4.57
Sidney Ponson / 5.30 / 4.52 / 6.21
Jason Johnson / 5.13 / 4.28 / 4.54
Derek Lowe / 5.42 / 4.36 / 3.61

My first thought in looking at this is that Oliver Perez is not nearly as good as I expected him to be by now, though he's still a young sprite. My second thought is that I'm totally blanking on who Cliff Lee is. BUT my third thought is that DIPS did pretty well in predicting improvement or decline in these pitchers. 24 out of 30. And, as my friend pointed out, a couple of the inaccuracies can be attributed to random things -- Ponson being crazy, for example.

So here are the DIPS based on 2005 ERAs for the top 15 overperformers and underperformers (of which, shockingly, Eric Milton is one) last season:

Overperformers
Pitcher / 2005 ERA / 2005 DIPS ERA
Roger Clemens / 1.87 / 3.02
Jarrod Washburn / 3.20 / 4.55
Andy Pettitte / 2.39 / 3.27
Kevin Millwood / 2.86 / 3.88
Bruce Chen / 3.83 / 5.03
Jeff Suppan / 3.57 / 4.66
Joe Blanton / 3.53 / 4.58
Tim Hudson / 3.52 / 4.44
Carlos Silva / 3.44 / 4.33
Jon Garland / 3.50 / 4.39
Kenny Rogers / 3.46 / 4.30
Jason Marquis / 4.13 / 5.12
Mark Mulder / 3.64 / 4.50
Dontrelle Willis / 2.63 / 3.20
Jose Contreras / 3.61 / 4.34
Underperformers
Zach Greinke / 5.80 / 4.52
Mark Hendrickson / 5.90 / 4.69
Joel Pineiro / 5.62 / 4.52
Jose Lima / 6.99 / 5.65
Eric Milton / 6.47 / 5.26
Jeff Francis / 5.68 / 4.70
Corey Lidle / 4.53 / 3.80
Brian Lawrence / 4.83 / 4.22
Jeremy Bonderman / 4.57 / 4.03
Mark Redman / 4.90 / 4.32
David Wells / 4.45 / 3.96
Jason Schmidt / 4.40 / 3.95
Chris Young / 4.26 / 3.88
Javier Vasquez / 4.42 / 4.03
Matt Clement / 4.57 / 4.17

The first thing I notice here is that my true love Javier Vazquez may finally have the season I have been waiting for him to have. The second is that Eric Milton is pretty high on that list of pitchers whose 2006 ERAs may significantly improve if we use their 2005 DIPS as a barometer for potential improvement.

So my question is: how accurate do you think all of this is? I always put forth the argument that a DIPS is all well and good in taking into account factors of a ballpark, but the fact remains that Eric Milton will be pitching half his games at GABP for as long as he is haunting my nightmares. My friend argues that it's not just park factors that affect DIPS but other things as well, such as accidents of defense. To which I respond, I don't know that the Reds' defense will help Eric Milton improve (although I see his point -- I expect FeLo, for example, to improve this year. But then we have Womack and Aurilia to worry about, and the fact that misplayed groundballs don't tend to be Milton's biggest problem.)

So I basically just did all that work to not feel any better or worse off than I did when I started. I'm looking for something, anything, to make me feel better about Milton...I swear the man has caused me more wasted time in my life than anyone I know personally. I can't completely give up hope, because he CAN throw a ball well occasionally...I've seen him do it...so I thought maybe DIPS would be a good thing to look at for him. But I don't know. What do you guys think? If this has been covered in depth before, I'm sorry, see above re: very very bored.

[SunDeck]

Nice post. I will be wild if Milty's ERA is south of 5.00.
Wild, I say.
It looks like only a few of those players who moved south did so by more than a half a point...except for Cliff Lee (whoever he is!) and some others.

So great, let's assume Milty's DIPS ERA indicates improvement. The problem is that is looks like he'll only improve to about 5.9.

Fantastic.

[KronoRed]

I don't think he'll do anything more then horrible as long as he plays for us, like Hampton in Colorado I think the park is in his head, and he's gonna stink both there and on the road till he gets a change of scenery.

He wasn't good before we got him, he's got from bad to freaking horrible :help:

[westofyou]

The past doesn't make it look too hopeful.

FWIW it wa sthe 5th worst ERA in MLB history for a guy with 30 starts, 10th for a guy with 20, 14th with 15 starts.


ERA YEAR ERA ERA GS RSAA AGE
1 Jose Lima 2005 6.99 6.99 32 -50 32
2 LaTroy Hawkins 1999 6.66 6.66 33 -28 26
3 Jose Lima 2000 6.65 6.65 33 -36 27
4 Darryl Kile 1999 6.61 6.61 32 -13 30
5 Eric Milton 2005 6.47 6.47 34 -41 29
6 Pedro Astacio 1998 6.23 6.23 34 -17 28
7 Pat Caraway 1931 6.22 6.22 32 -51 25
8 Brian Bohanon 1999 6.20 6.20 33 -4 30
9 Mike Hampton 2002 6.15 6.15 30 -22 29
10 Javier Vazquez 1998 6.06 6.06 32 -43 21

[vaticanplum]

Why is Jose Lima still working?

[KronoRed]

Why is Jose Lima still working?
Lima time still sounds cool

[Naugy Red]

Yes I think He can be a lot better. He will be 31 in August and Had a record of 71 wins and 57 losses thru 2004 Pitching in Homer friendly Parks. I agree He was a bad signing at 25 Million But should be a decent Starter.He has had 4 seasons of at least 13 wins

[registerthis]

Eric Milton will never have an ERA below 5.5 for the Reds so long as he remains a fly ball pitcher in a hitter's park. He lacks the overpowering heat to blow guys away, and he doesn't keep the ball down enough to keep it in the park.

The thing that's so frustrating about this is that everyone with an inkling of a clue KNEW this before Milton was ever signed. Perhaps it couldn't have been predicted that he would suck at the level he did last year, but a 5.50 ERA was entirely predictable based on his past performances. Yet we still hand him $8 million per to pitch batting practice to the other team.

IMO, this move alone was enough to justify DanO's firing. Complete and utter idiocy is the only way to describe it.

[registerthis]

Yes I think He can be a lot better. He will be 31 in August and Had a record of 71 wins and 57 losses thru 2004 Pitching in Homer friendly Parks. I agree He was a bad signing at 25 Million But should be a decent Starter.He has had 4 seasons of at least 13 wins

"Number of wins" is one of the worst barometers you can use to grade a pitcher's abilities. "Wins" are the "batting average" of pitcher's stats, and its the kind of thing that leads to Jimmy Haynes getting a ridiculous 2 year deal simply because he ended up on the right side of the score 15 times in 2003.

With Milton, there's no reason to expect him to improve, other than wishful thinking. He's always been a fly ball/HR pitcher--no more so than last year. Unfortunately, he pitches in a park with a strong propensity for coughing up the long ball. His GB/FB ration is the reverse of what it should be for him to be effective in GAB.

[RedsManRick]

Eric Milton will never have an ERA below 5.5 for the Reds so long as he remains a fly ball pitcher in a hitter's park. He lacks the overpowering heat to blow guys away, and he doesn't keep the ball down enough to keep it in the park.

The thing that's so frustrating about this is that everyone with an inkling of a clue KNEW this before Milton was ever signed. Perhaps it couldn't have been predicted that he would suck at the level he did last year, but a 5.50 ERA was entirely predictable based on his past performances. Yet we still hand him $8 million per to pitch batting practice to the other team.

IMO, this move alone was enough to justify DanO's firing. Complete and utter idiocy is the only way to describe it.

Do you know what Milton's DIPS was in 2004? Because I think the wrong conclusion was arrived at by Dan O & co because of his "success" in 2004. I suspect he was an overperformer as indicated by DIPS which the fact that he was really a worse pitcher with Philly than he was in MN. But O'Bie saw that he was equally as good in Philly (judging by wins and era) and conluded that rather he could handle the pitcher friendly environment.

[Little Alex]

can he get worse?

[RedsManRick]

"Number of wins" is one of the worst barometers you can use to grade a pitcher's abilities. "Wins" are the "batting average" of pitcher's stats, and its the kind of thing that leads to Jimmy Haynes getting a ridiculous 2 year deal simply because he ended up on the right side of the score 15 times in 2003.

Tony Womack hit .307 in 2004 hitting almost purely in the lead-off spot with Renteria/Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds behind him. He scored just 91 runs. Adam Dunn hit .266 in 2004, usually in the 4th or 5th spot with D'Angelo Jiminez , Jason/Valentin, and Juan Castro behind him. He scored 105 runs.

Wins are pretty much screwed up the same way. What makes you good isn't what's measured the most commonly used stat.

[KronoRed]

can he get worse?
We're gonna find out :help:

[registerthis]

Tony Womack hit .307 in 2004 hitting almost purely in the lead-off spot with Renteria/Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds behind him. He scored just 91 runs. Adam Dunn hit .266 in 2004, usually in the 4th or 5th spot with D'Angelo Jiminez , Jason/Valentin, and Juan Castro behind him. He scored 105 runs.

Wins are pretty much screwed up the same way. What makes you good isn't what's measured the most commonly used stat.

Yep, Casey hit .312 last year. Hal Morris routinely hit .300-.320. Call it the "empty batting average" syndrome.

[TheGARB]

Do you know what Milton's DIPS was in 2004? Because I think the wrong conclusion was arrived at by Dan O & co because of his "success" in 2004. I suspect he was an overperformer as indicated by DIPS which the fact that he was really a worse pitcher with Philly than he was in MN. But O'Bie saw that he was equally as good in Philly (judging by wins and era) and conluded that rather he could handle the pitcher friendly environment.

These aren't "official" numbers, but doing some quick and dirty calculations, I get a DIPS of 5.14 and a FIP of 5.26 for Milton for 2004. But those are statistics on paper, they're obviously not indicators of future performance.

[Mario-Rijo]

He could get better. If he were to develop a nasty change-up. Of course it seems unlikely but he is supposed to be a competitor. So if he finally comes to the conclusion that his FB isn't fast enough anymore he could possibly decide to work on that nasty change, thus making that 'ole heater look somewhat hot again! But chances are that he will be nearly but not quite as bad this year as he was last yr. It's all in his approach IMHO!

[RedsManRick]

These aren't "official" numbers, but doing some quick and dirty calculations, I get a DIPS of 5.14 and a FIP of 5.26 for Milton for 2004. But those are statistics on paper, they're obviously not indicators of future performance.

But the indicator remains that he actually performed at a level of a 5.20 ERA rather than a 4.80. That difference isn't that big, but a 4.80 ERA suggests that he was able to compensate in some way for the increase in homers, when in fact, it wasn't him at all, but a luck and/or a good defense that held his ERA under 5.00. He actually WAS a worse pitcher in 2004 than he was in Minnesota, but it was hidden by luck and defense. Last year his luck ran out and his defense was horrible -- and so while his 2004 and 2005 DIPS were nearly identical (suggesting he was pretty much the same pitcher), his ERA crashed. I think we can expect him to improve over last year -- but I think the increase will be from 6.61 to 5.61. That's nothing to look forward to.

[kbrake]

OK someone one want to give me a quick run down of what some of this is? DIPS? and just maybe some other stats that common fans might not know.

[SteelSD]

I always put forth the argument that a DIPS is all well and good in taking into account factors of a ballpark, but the fact remains that Eric Milton will be pitching half his games at GABP for as long as he is haunting my nightmares.

Good post and well researched! Kudos.

If you got those numbers from espn.com (and they look familiar so I expect you did), the DIPS formula they use doesn't take Park Factors into consideration.

And as to your comment about defense, you're right- you take a guy who we could expect to put up a 5.25 ERA with an average defense and plop him down in front of a below-average defense, and you're most likely going to see a higher ERA than what the DIPS shows up.

In 2004, Milton posted a 5.23 DIPS ERA while playing in front of third-best defensive team in MLB (Phillies- .704 Defensive Efficiency). Then he got to play in front of the third worst defensive team in 2005 (Reds- .678 Defensive Efficiency). Good defense accounted for much of Milton's ERA-luck in 2004 and he ended up ERA-unlucky in 2005 for the reverse reason.

But that's also augmented by Eric Milton being the kid of pitcher he is. He's always been very extra-base Hit prone. And, as could have been expected, he gave up over 100 extra-base Hits in 2005. And it's not just the balls falling between outfielders who lack great range. It's the balls banging off walls that those OF's couldn't get to with boot jets and stepladders.

Simply put, Milton was a bad starter who got plopped in front of a bad defense and then actually further exacerbated the situation by pitching worse than he did the year prior. If his ERA ends up below 5.50 in 2006, I'll consider that an act of God.

[SteelSD]

OK someone one want to give me a quick run down of what some of this is? DIPS? and just maybe some other stats that common fans might not know.

With an assist from espn.com:

DIPS ERA: A pitcher's ERA, independent of the defense behind him. This formula, based on essays by Voros McCracken, assumes that all pitchers have consistent BIPA (See Above), and adjusts accordingly

BIPA (or BABIP): Balls In Play Average. Batting Average Against, not including home runs or strikeouts.

The general assumption is that pitchers cannot control what happens to a ball hit into play after it leaves the bat. That's not completely the case and there are pitchers (knuckleballers, some LHP, and rare RH guys like Greg Maddux) who can coax less productive contact resulting in lower-than-average BABIP numbers on a semi-consistent basis.

Basically, what DIPS is trying to do is adjust for defense. It looks at a player's numbers and asks, "What could we have reasonably expected from him if he played in front of a league-average defensive team?" That's a slight oversimplification of course, but it's the best way I know how to explain it.

[kbrake]

Thank you very much Steel.

[vaticanplum]

you take a guy who we could expect to put up a 5.25 ERA with an average defense and plop him down in front of a below-average defense, and you're most likely going to see a higher ERA than what the DIPS shows up.

In 2004, Milton posted a 5.23 DIPS ERA while playing in front of third-best defensive team in MLB (Phillies- .704 Defensive Efficiency). Then he got to play in front of the third worst defensive team in 2005 (Reds- .678 Defensive Efficiency). Good defense accounted for much of Milton's ERA-luck in 2004 and he ended up ERA-unlucky in 2005 for the reverse reason.

Yeah...I kind of take DIPS with a grain of salt in general. I appreciate that it tries to allow for a few more factors than a straight ERA does, but I don't think I buy the whole "a pitcher has no control over what happens to a ball once it's in play" thing even in theory, for a number of little circumstantial reasons that add up. Like the fact that a pitcher IS a part of the defense the second a ball is put into play (well, he is before that too, but you know what I mean), and the very intangible fact that a good pitcher knows HOW he needs to put a ball into play given the the defense behind him and which batter he's facing. I think you kind of said that in your second post, with Maddux and all that.

I think it can be a useful thing to look at when a pitcher in some cases -- I do think Vazquez is due to realize his heretofore unimagined heights as a talented pitcher due to the switch he's making, the better defense he'll have behind him and the fact that he was very unlucky in the Arizona park. But for pitchers who aren't going anywhere, whose defense hasn't gotten significantly better (or even gotten worse by, say, deciding to split the second base position between Rich Aurilia and Tony Womack) -- I don't know that there can really be hope for his ERA changing that much unless he changes his technique or something. It's all part of why my brain can only go so far with stats -- I feel like for everything that a new stat accounts for, there's something else left out. It's a very imperfect science, that is why it's such a rad game.

Tomorrow I'll explore a whole new stat that will allow me to believe for a couple hours that Eric Milton will get better.

[SteelSD]

Yeah...I kind of take DIPS with a grain of salt in general. I appreciate that it tries to allow for a few more factors than a straight ERA does, but I don't think I buy the whole "a pitcher has no control over what happens to a ball once it's in play" thing even in theory, for a number of little circumstantial reasons that add up. Like the fact that a pitcher IS a part of the defense the second a ball is put into play (well, he is before that too, but you know what I mean), and the very intangible fact that a good pitcher knows HOW he needs to put a ball into play given the the defense behind him and which batter he's facing. I think you kind of said that in your second post, with Maddux and all that.

Oh, I think you can at least buy in most of the way on the concept that pitchers don't have any control over what happens to a ball once it leaves the bat. A guy like Maddux is a possible exception (over the course of his career) because his unique combination of movement and pinpoint control played in such an extreme way to hitter weakness and allowed for a good deal of low-quality BIP contact.

In short, Voros was mostly right. Only the oddities and true rarities need apply as exceptions to that rule.

[Johnny Footstool]

The second is that Eric Milton is pretty high on that list of pitchers whose 2006 ERAs may significantly improve if we use their 2005 DIPS as a barometer for potential improvement.

His 2005 DIPS ERA was still over 5.50 -- miserable. If he approaches that number in 2006, he'll be a turd with slightly less stink.

[savafan]

If we could get him to break his arm and have experimental surgery...

http://www.baseballmovie.com/images/rookie-of-year.jpg

[KronoRed]

..and trade him to the cubs :evil:

[westofyou]

Projected 9.6 VORP, just a shade above 1 million per unit.

[savafan]

..and trade him to the cubs :evil:

Whatever we have to do. I'd even take Gary Busey back in return. :p:

[gonelong]

Oh, I think you can at least buy in most of the way on the concept that pitchers don't have any control over what happens to a ball once it leaves the bat. A guy like Maddux is a possible exception (over the course of his career) because his unique combination of movement and pinpoint control played in such an extreme way to hitter weakness and allowed for a good deal of low-quality BIP contact.

In short, Voros was mostly right. Only the oddities and true rarities need apply as exceptions to that rule.

I'd think that SLG% on BIP would be a very telling stat. When a guy DOES gets hit, is he giving up dribblers or rockets. It'd also give you some idea of how far a high K guy might drop as his K/9 began to come down.

I'd sort of assume somebody already has thought of this.

GL

[Aronchis]

If Eric was my dog, I would go into the back yard and shoot him. That should tell you how good Eric's "prospects" for improving are.

[Johnny Footstool]

I'd think that SLG% on BIP would be a very telling stat. When a guy DOES gets hit, is he giving up dribblers or rockets. It'd also give you some idea of how far a high K guy might drop as his K/9 began to come down.

I'd sort of assume somebody already has thought of this.

GL

You're on the right track, but you could also just look at 2B and HR rates to gauge the quality of contact allowed.

[Red Rover]

Kullman mentioned yesterday on MLB Radio that Milton will not be using a sinker as much this coming year. Does anyone know if he used a sinker before he was a Red or if he learned it from Gullett?

[flyer85]

There is a lot of inherent variability in year to year performance without a change in skill level.

[RFS62]

Kullman mentioned yesterday on MLB Radio that Milton will not be using a sinker as much this coming year. Does anyone know if he used a sinker before he was a Red or if he learned it from Gullett?


It was widely reported that Gullet tried to teach him a sinker last year.

I guess that was after somebody told DanO that he was a fly ball pitcher.

[CincyFalcon]

I think Milton's sinker somehow always forgot to sink

[Chip R]

I think Milton's sinker somehow always forgot to sink

Oh, it sank all right. Mostly after it finished clearing the outfield fence.

[KronoRed]

Oh, it sank all right. Mostly after it finished clearing the outfield fence.
When it hit the score board.

Good times.

[jmcclain19]

Why is Jose Lima still working?

Have you ever seen his wife? :eek: :cool:

[Chip R]

Have you ever seen his wife? :eek: :cool:

Yeah, and it still begs the question. :devil: