What happens if Kearns and Pena perform to career norms this season?

[Falls City Beer]

Kearns (.360 OB/.461 SLG)
Pena (.303 OB/ .477 SLG)

Everyone here believes that trading Kearns and Pena is the magic beans that will pull the Reds up from the gutter. No one wants to trade for a MLB starter, no one wants to take a risk and overpromote, no one wants to do much of anything except hope that Kearns and Pena play over their heads and get shipped out for young aces.

Okay, here's my question: what if Pena and Kearns suck this season? Would you just wait for the draft to eventually turn the team's fortunes around? Would you tap into the FA pool next offseason? Trade Bailey for a MLB performer next offseason? Trade Dunn? Trade Harang? Trade Larue? What is your alternative plan in the case of further erosion of Kearns's and Pena's trade value?

[cincyinco]

Decent question...

I think I would give Pena or Kearns about a 1/2 season of full play time to see what happens. Try to trade one or the other at the break/deadline. Focus on the upcoming draft, get a good college arm - this draft is loaded with them. I try to pare some salary before the deadline.. i.e Milton - if at all possible. I head into 2006 offseason looking for Cast to open the wallet some, as there is a very strong FA crop. Sign that ace pitcher, make them an offer they cannot refuse. Then fill in the gaps - another good starter, a legit closer. Kinda like the Blue Jays offseason this year. I think you sign 2 good starters, make some shrewd trades at the deadline, but not for your top talent.. keep drafting strong, get that college pitcher who could be ready within a year or two at most..

You retain Dunn, Lopez, EE, Griffey, and one of Kearns or WMP - the one you don't trade...

You sign 2 good pitchers in the offseason, 1 ace quality.

Rotation is 2 FA pitchers, Harang, Claussen.. on the horizon are Homer if he continues improvement and development, possible pitchers you got from trading wmp/kearns(I suppose their value depends on their production, but even if the one you trade isn't doing very well its okay.. this plan doesn't hing on the success or failure of WMP/KEarns), and college pitcher or two you took in the draft.. rework the pen by signing a legit closer if possible, maybe a few other vets.. and I think you have made your team competitive, in 1-2 years. Keep drafting well and stocking the minors with a good solid mix of prep and collegiete talent with some good risks here and there... And in a few years the farm can sustain the big club success.

Thats how I see it... No reason to dismantle too much of the best offense in the NL... Perhaps a trade of Kearns or WMP can speed up the process of being competitive... But I think that 2006 FA crop is so strong if Rcast will open the wallet a little bit, get rid of bad salary ala milton.. then there's no reason we can't have the best rotation this team's seen in 6 years or so and be competitive.

[VI_RedsFan]

Your plan sounds good cincyinco. Do you have a link for the 06 FA crop? I'd like to get a look at the pitchers to see which ones I'd like to see BCast go after.

[cincyinco]

Your plan sounds good cincyinco. Do you have a link for the 06 FA crop? I'd like to get a look at the pitchers to see which ones I'd like to see BCast go after.

You know, I'm looking for one now on google.. unfortunately my search skills suck.. if I find a link I'll post it.. if anyone else has it, that would be great. In any case, I hope my memory is serving me well. I thought I remembered someone posting the FA list after this year on the ORG board, and I was impressed with some of the talent that should be available. Otherwise, I'm the fool.

Ah, here we go: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42616&highlight=2006+free+agents

Not as strong as I had made myself think I suppose, but still some very solid names on there that can get you started. At least better than what we've been trotting out there... You may not win it all in a year or two, but you can certainly, for once, be truely competitive - which would be a big change.

[VI_RedsFan]

Here I just found a link:

http://www.mlb4u.com/0607FA.html

That's the best I could find.

Names that stand out in the SP department are Zito, Schmidt, and Lilly. Names that stand out in the closer department are Guardado, Cordero, Gagne (Team Option), and Mariano Rivera (Team Option.

[cincyinco]

Looks like Paul Wilson has a team option, so you can get out of that right? There's some salary saved..

Jose Contreras
Jason Schmidt
Kerry Wood? big risk
Mussina
Escobar
Marquis
Eaton?

Lilly, Redman, Mulder and Zito.. perhaps Randy Wolf...

I mean, these are all pitchers who IMHO are better than a Milton or Wilson... and can give you respectable performances. Some have questions marks due to health, salary, whatever... but give me 2 solid pitchers to pair with Harang and Claussen and I think we have for the first time since 99 a respectable rotation. Get that college arm in this years draft, and you got 1 more who should be ready fairly quickly to jump in. Imagine if we landed a pitcher like Bard from UNC... and you got homer with another year of hopefully improved development, finishing the year in AA. You're all the sudden closer than you think.

[jmcclain19]

I think what you are saying FCB is closer to reality than anyone really thinks.

At this point in the season, everyone is drinking the koolaid thinking the Reds OF will be stacked and the team will score at will.

However, the more likely scenario is that both simply are right around their career averages, and it's likely that the two won't combine to play 160 games. And as unseemingly as it seems, that makes both a dime a dozen in baseball - mediocre, injury prone OFs who haven't lived up to their potential.

I'm of the slash and burn policy at this point. Adopt the early 2000s Cleveland Indians policy. Any piece that can be moved for value - it should be gone yesterday and the replacement here already.

This team is going to be BAD this season. Perhaps colassally so from the look of the pitching in Spring Training. Imagine if Harang starts the season on the DL and Claussen struggles early.

At least let them be young and bad and with a purpose in mind. Rather than old and bad simply for losing's sake.

[Revering4Blue]

I try to pare some salary before the deadline.. i.e Milton - if at all possible.

A scenerio:

-Milton doesn't completely bomb as he did last year, well enough to garner interest from a contender with a more pitching-friendly ballbark.

-Kearns and/or Pena exceed expectations and perform above career norms.

-Contending team will only take Milton and his albatross contract if the Reds include Kearns or Pena in the ensuing deal.

Do you pull the trigger on a deal to rid the Reds of Milton's albatross contract, even if the return is less than what Kearns or Pena could fetch without Milton's and his contract included in the ensuing deal?

Without hesitation, I would certainly include Kearns or Pena in any milton deal if Kearns and/or Pena perform at or below career norms. But if Scenerio #1 presents itself, it is obviously a tougher call.

In many ways, Milton's performance-specifically the ability to unload his contract- plays as vital a part in the Reds' road to recovery as flipping Kearns or Pena. We can only hope that all prospective tradeable commodities exceed expectations along with some shrewd drafting as cincyinco alluded to.

Lets build a team capable of more than just a token playoff appearance, even if it means two or three more seasons of trotting out non-contending teams.

[SirFelixCat]

A scenerio:

-Milton doesn't completely bomb as he did last year, well enough to garner interest from a contender with a more pitching-friendly ballbark.

-Kearns and/or Pena exceed expectations and perform above career norms.

-Contending team will only take Milton and his albatross contract if the Reds include Kearns or Pena in the ensuing deal.

Do you pull the trigger on a deal to rid the Reds of Milton's albatross contract, even if the return is less than what Kearns or Pena could fetch without Milton's and his contract included in the ensuing deal?

Without hesitation, I would certainly include Kearns or Pena in any milton deal if Kearns and/or Pena perform at or below career norms. But if Scenerio #1 presents itself, it is obviously a tougher call.

In many ways, Milton's performance-specifically the ability to unload his contract- plays as vital a part in the Reds' road to recovery as flipping Kearns or Pena. We can only hope that all prospective tradeable commodities exceed expectations along with some shrewd drafting as cincyinco alluded to.

Lets build a team capable of more than just a token playoff appearance, even if it means two or three more seasons of trotting out non-contending teams.

To be perfectly honest here, only RCast can answer that. I mean, if he is willing to open up the wallet, then moving Milton is a moot point. Bury him in the BP and suck it up, so-to-speak. Now, I'm not saying that that is going to happen, but it has to be looked at that way. Also, it would depend on the return. Lots of ifs etc...I think we'll have a clearer picture @ June. Here's to hoping Milton has a respectable first half and we can flip him for a bag of balls and all this is, again, moot. Time will tell.

[Falls City Beer]

I think what you are saying FCB is closer to reality than anyone really thinks.

At this point in the season, everyone is drinking the koolaid thinking the Reds OF will be stacked and the team will score at will.

However, the more likely scenario is that both simply are right around their career averages, and it's likely that the two won't combine to play 160 games. And as unseemingly as it seems, that makes both a dime a dozen in baseball - mediocre, injury prone OFs who haven't lived up to their potential.

I'm of the slash and burn policy at this point. Adopt the early 2000s Cleveland Indians policy. Any piece that can be moved for value - it should be gone yesterday and the replacement here already.

This team is going to be BAD this season. Perhaps colassally so from the look of the pitching in Spring Training. Imagine if Harang starts the season on the DL and Claussen struggles early.

At least let them be young and bad and with a purpose in mind. Rather than old and bad simply for losing's sake.


I'm thinking you're right. What's continually disturbed me about this franchise for the last six seasons is its brittle conservatism in the wake of the Griffey injury fiasco--even Bowden, once the great risk taker, turned into a gelded nancy-boy, moving pawns up one space, then retreating them back; constantly hiding the queen. Risk-taking is gone from this franchise, kaput. The last thing on earth this club needs is to be timid.

[pedro]

If Kearns puts up the numbers (.360 / .461) and stays healthy he will still be a good, not great player.

That is an .821 OPS which is not awful by any means and it sure doesn't "suck"

[Falls City Beer]

If Kearns puts up the numbers (.360 / .461) and stays healthy he will still be a good, not great player.

That is an .821 OPS which is not awful by any means and it sure doesn't "suck"

No, you're right. It doesn't suck, but it's about average for a MLB right fielder. But the larger question is: what does an injury-prone average right fielder with a lowered ceiling net you?

[pedro]

No, you're right. It doesn't suck, but it's about average for a MLB right fielder. But the larger question is: what does an injury-prone average right fielder with a lowered ceiling net you?


If he stays healthy all year more than what we can get for him now. It's a gamble, but one I think the Reds should take. But count me in the camp of people of still believe in Kearns. I think he's going to have a really good year.

As for WMP I think the Reds should have traded him after 2004 and have little confidence that he'll ever be that good because he can't get on base and can't field.

I do agree with peoples feelings that the Reds have been too conservative for last several years and that they missed a lot of opportunities to trade assets before they depreciated, but at this point I'd take the chance that Kearns will get some value back.

WMP, OTOH, I'd be pimping him to Jim Bowden everyday of the week.

[wheels]

Let's not forget that Kearns was not injured last season.

He played in more major league games than he did the previous two seasons.

He was sent down because he was fat.

He looks more svelt this spring than last, but we still won't know if he will ever regain the form he showed in flashes before the Ray King incident.

What's that do to his trade value? It's my opinion that it makes it virtually non existant.

Now...If he's putting up a .900 OPS in June, and someone offers them a young pitcher or a young OFer with serious range I would say deal him.