Big Game tonight

[Chip R]

Not to get all Edskin on everybody but I think tonight's game is pretty big. Not necessarily the result but rather the performance of one Eric Milton. The game is going to be shown in prime time tonight on Fox Sports Ohio. That means if Milton pitches similar to how he did most of last year, most Reds fans are going to see it and they will not be happy with him in the rotation. Narron & Co. can spin it all they want by saying he's still in ST and those stats don't mean anything and that he Plays The Game Right and Knows How To Win but you have to feel that not only the coaching staff but the front office and Bob are going to be pretty nervous about sending Milton out there every 5th day. So tonight could bigger than most ST games are or should be.

[kbrake]

I just want to see a Reds game so bad tonight I could care less what Milton does. I hope Narron runs out some regulars though, really dont care to see a Sunday Special. I do get your point though Milton will be getting a lot of heat if he goes out and blows again tonight. We shall see.

[redsmetz]

I think if Milton falters tonight, he'll be on the DL. Just my opinion. I'm anxious for him to do well here and in the season - we really need it. I know that's not a popular sentiment on this board, but we're stuck with this ill-advised contract and I'd like to see him suceed.

[KoryMac5]

I think that the game being on TV is a good thing many of us watched Milton last year and could tell that he had nothing in his legs most nights when he took the mound it will be an interesting to compare tonights Milton to last years.

[flyer85]

I don't see tonight as big for Milton other than to prove he is healthy. How well he pitches doesn't matter because he will be in the rotation no matter how poorly he may pitch this evening.

[redsfan30]

If we don't judge other players based on Spring Training performance, I don't see why Eric Milton should be any different.

The main thing the Reds are probably hoping for is that he goes out and just builds up his arm strength. He's going to be out there for awhile whether he gets pounded or pitches well.

[cincrazy]

Thankfully, the last simulated game he threw went really well. 6 innings, 76 pitches or so, only allowed a run, one walk I think. I'm not expecting him to win 15-20 games or to be anything close to an ace, but if the guy can just be average like he was in Philly for a while, it will help. He had a stretch last year where he'd go five or six solid innings and leave the game, and if we could just get that from him I'd be pleased. Granted, we're paying the guy way too much money to be expecting only that, but oh well, at this point I'll take anything from him that doesn't border on the disastrous

[M2]

If we don't judge other players based on Spring Training performance, I don't see why Eric Milton should be any different.

He is no different. He provided ample evidence last year to judge him, convict him and order his execution. At this point, spring training or no, it's just extra insult to injury everytime he takes the mound for the Reds.

[flyer85]

Thankfully, the last simulated game he threw went really well. 6 innings, 76 pitches or so, only allowed a run, one walk I think. Maybe the Reds could just simulate playing on the day he's supposed to pitch. :D

[KronoRed]

He is no different. He provided ample evidence last year to judge him, convict him and order his execution.
http://www.radekaphotography.com/images/Noose-large.jpg

[redsfan30]

He is no different. He provided ample evidence last year to judge him, convict him and order his execution. At this point, spring training or no, it's just extra insult to injury everytime he takes the mound for the Reds.
The great thing about the game of baseball is that last year is last year. Sure not too many people expect much out of him this year, but the thing that makes it beautiful is nobody knows. I know there are forecase models and everything but nothing can predict the future.

Eric Milton could top his ERA from last year or he could rebound to become Cy Young...nobody knows.

[Falls City Beer]

http://www.radekaphotography.com/images/Noose-large.jpg

:eek:

Jeez, that's horrific. I told you to stay off rotten.com.

[M2]

The great thing about the game of baseball is that last year is last year. Sure not too many people expect much out of him this year, but the thing that makes it beautiful is nobody knows. I know there are forecase models and everything but nothing can predict the future.

Eric Milton could top his ERA from last year or he could rebound to become Cy Young...nobody knows.

Oh plenty of people know. Eric Milton's not winning a Cy Young, ever. In fact, he's not pitching well in 2006 either. Bank on it. Dragging his ERA below 5.50 would be a pyrrhic victory and dragging it below 5.00 would be a bloody miracle.

Last year may be last year, but Eric Milton is still Eric Milton and he's the Mayor of Palookaville.

[Phhhl]

I think if Milton falters tonight, he'll be on the DL. Just my opinion. I'm anxious for him to do well here and in the season - we really need it. I know that's not a popular sentiment on this board, but we're stuck with this ill-advised contract and I'd like to see him suceed.

Absolutely! He's not going anywhere. How big would it be if he stepped up and started dealing like a major league pitcher again? Maybe there was something mechanically wrong last year. He's always going to give up a lot of bombs, but maybe the leg deal was causing him to fly open and leave his pitches up. I remember Denny Naegle morphing from a pretty good lefty to a human batting tee whenever his mechanics were off. Naegle was every bit as bad as Milton when his front shoulder flew open. It was even a hot topic on this very board at the time, and it was plain to see even on television. We really have no choice but to give Milton the benefit of the doubt, at least at the start of the season. If he could be just as good as he was with Philadelphia in 2004, it would be a huge boost for this team.

[flyer85]

PECOTA's 90% projection for Milton(he has a 10% chance to get to this level)
3.69 ERA 1.21 WHIP 199 IP

50% projection
4.96 ERA 1.38 WHIP 174 IP

PECOTA doesn't think a sub 5 ERA is unreasonable but anything approaching Cy Young level is obviously ludicrous.


A player's Percentile Forecast is a representation of the player's expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability. For example, if a pitcher's 75th percentile EqERA forecast is 3.52, this indicates that he has a 75% chance to post an EqERA of 3.52 or higher, and a 25% chance to post an ERA less than 3.52. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.

[M2]

Absolutely! He's not going anywhere. How big would it be if he stepped up and started dealing like a major league pitcher again? Maybe there was something mechanically wrong last year. He's always going to give up a lot of bombs, but maybe the leg deal was causing him to fly open and leave his pitches up. I remember Denny Naegle morphing from a pretty good lefty to a human batting tee whenever his mechanics were off. Naegle was every bit as bad as Milton when his front shoulder flew open. It was even a hot topic on this very board at the time, and it was plain to see even on television. We really have no choice but to give Milton the benefit of the doubt, at least at the start of the season. If he could be just as good as he was with Philadelphia in 2004, it would be a huge boost for this team.

Santo, you'd have better luck trying to catch the Easter Bunny.

Forget the maybes and how-big-would-it-bes, it's not going to happen. The Reds do have a choice on Milton. No team has to put one of the most awful pitchers on the planet in its rotation. Give him his money and send him on his way.

[Heath]

PECOTA's 90% projection for Milton(he has a 10% chance to get to this level)
3.69 ERA 1.21 WHIP 199 IP

50% projection
4.96 ERA 1.38 WHIP 174 IP

PECOTA doesn't think a sub 5 ERA is unreasonable but anything approaching Cy Young level is obviously ludicrous.


Looks like Milton's going to have some Percentile Dysfunction this year.

Thanks, DanO. You dolt. (and I mean that in a nice, redszone.com way) :)

[redsfan30]

People come on now....I didn't say Eric Milton was going to win the Cy Young award. All I'm saying is that nobody can 100% correctly predict what's going to happen. I know forecasting models are usually pretty close, but the fact is nobody knows.

You may have a notion, but you don't know.

[flyer85]

People come on now....I didn't say Eric Milton was going to win the Cy Young award. Then phrase it this way. He has about a 10% chance(according to PECOTA) of actually being good.

[M2]

People come on now....I didn't say Eric Milton was going to win the Cy Young award. All I'm saying is that nobody can 100% correctly predict what's going to happen. I know forecasting models are usually pretty close, but the fact is nobody knows.

You may have a notion, but you don't know.

No, in the case of Eric Milton people know. He's shot.

This "you don't know" stuff is just a cop out. He's shot and no amount of pretending or wishing otherwise will make him unshot.

flyer, much as I like PECOTA, I'll go with Milton having a 0% chance of hitting that upper target. I'd put 4.55 as his extreme, Candyland upper end.

[redsfan30]

Then phrase it this way. He has about a 10% chance(according to PECOTA) of actually being good.
I would have thought people could have looked at the context of the sentence and figured out I was being sarastic.

Just using it as a best case/worst case scenario.

[BRM]

No, in the case of Eric Milton people know. He's shot.

This "you don't know" stuff is just a cop out. He's shot and no amount of pretending or wishing otherwise will make him unshot.


Maybe we can summon Count Iz Van Tileckie...

[flyer85]

For the Milton haters, try this one on.

Womack(according to PECOTA) has a 10% chance of being bad(-3.6). He has a 90% chance of being really bad.

[BRM]

For the Milton haters, try this one on.

Womack(according to PECOTA) has a 10% chance of being bad(-3.6). He has a 90% chance of being really bad.

So you're saying Tony won't be winning the NL Batting Title?

[flyer85]

So you're saying Tony won't be winning the NL Batting Title?His 90th% PECOTA projection is for a .268 AVG and a .304 OBP. When you realize that PECOTA predicts he has just a small chance of being that bad or better it really is amazing a team would consider him for a roster spot much less an everyday job.

[BRM]

His 90th% PECOTA projection is for a .268 AVG and a .304 OBP.

A 10% chance of putting up a .304 OBP and a 90% chance of being even worse. That's just great. Hopefully Lopez puts up a .380 OBP or else Junior and Dunn will have little to no RBI opportunities.

[KoryMac5]

No one really knows enough to be a pessimist. Norman Cousins
American essayist & editor


And that is key to this debate we really don't know enough by what we saw in an injured Eric Milton last year to make a reliable assumption on what we will see this year. As a Reds fan which I hope we all are I am rooting for Milton to have a big year. That being said tonight is an important game for Milton in seeing any improvement from last year to this year in how he threw the ball.

[Chip R]

I don't see tonight as big for Milton other than to prove he is healthy. How well he pitches doesn't matter because he will be in the rotation no matter how poorly he may pitch this evening.

It's not necessarily big for Milton. He's going to get his money whether he makes 30 starts or is cut tomorrow. It's more important to Bob, the front office and the coaches and Narron.

It's important for Bob because his honeymoon is probably about over. No matter how much he talks about things changing, if people see Milton give up 5-6 runs tonight - and they will see it tonight if it happens - they are going to believe nothing has changed. Plus they will be less likely to buy tickets to games and watch games on TV and listen to the games on the radio. All adding up to less revenue for the Reds. It's important to Bob also because he has $17M tied up in Milton over the next two years thanks to Dimwit DanO. Bob's already given DanO the boot. Would he bite that $17M bullet for Milton? Bob may be different than Lindner in a lot of ways but I'll bet you he's not crazy about eating that contract either.

It's important to the front office because they have to feel if Milton blows tonight, they may have to put him in the bullpen and make another deal for pitching. Maybe Kearns is the one to go this time. Maybe it's LaRue. Might be FeLo. If he does well, that may be one less thing to worry about.

It's important for Narron and his coaches because their jobs are on the line. If they run the 2005 version of Milton out there every 5th day, the Reds aren't going to win a lot of games. Coaches have been on record as saying he's looked like a totally diferent pitcher out there. He goes out tonight and blows, no amount of spin by Narron and his coaches is going to make people think Milton is going to be anything short of a disaster. He pitches well tonight and they look like heros. Exhibition games shouldn't be this important but this one is.

[registerthis]

A 10% chance of putting up a .304 OBP and a 90% chance of being even worse. That's just great. Hopefully Lopez puts up a .380 OBP or else Junior and Dunn will have little to no RBI opportunities.

Yeah, geez, I didn't realize it was that awful. That's not just bad, that's peeing-in-your-own-bed-after-a-long-night-of-heavy-drinking bad.

[Chip R]

Yeah, geez, I didn't realize it was that awful. That's not just bad, that's peeing-in-your-own-bed-after-a-long-night-of-heavy-drinking bad.

I once had a roommate in college who did that.

[TRF]

Best case scenario?

Milton discovers a new untraceable steroid, and is injected with stem cells from Roger Clemens umbilical cord.

[flyer85]

Yeah, geez, I didn't realize it was that awful. That's not just bad, that's peeing-in-your-own-bed-after-a-long-night-of-heavy-drinking bad.I think some are finally starting to grasp the awfulness that is named Womack. He doesn't even have a chance of being useful, it is simply going to be what level of suckitude he arrives at.

Even in the case of Milton there is a 10% he could actually be good in 2006, just look at the recent year to year stuff of one Jose Lima. Lima had a 27+ VORP in 2004 and followed that with a -31 in 2005.

[BRM]

I think some are finally starting to grasp the awfulness that is named Womack. He doesn't even have a chance of being useful, it is simply going to be what level of suckitude he arrives at.

But Tony's hitting .387 this spring.

[Yachtzee]

Well, It looks like the game will not be carried on the Cleveland feed of FSO.

[KronoRed]

But Tony's hitting .387 this spring.
All star.

[Chip R]

Well, It looks like the game will not be carried on the Cleveland feed of FSO.

That's a shame. I thought it might since that Reds Week stuff was.

[icehole3]

Everyone ready for the Rossi fireworks show in the first inning before the game tonite?


http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2005-9/1075688/Power_Stacks_Fireworks[1]copy.gif

[redsfan30]

It's important for Bob because his honeymoon is probably about over. No matter how much he talks about things changing, if people see Milton give up 5-6 runs tonight - and they will see it tonight if it happens - they are going to believe nothing has changed.
Don't you think people are smart enought to realize that just because someone different is signing his paychecks doesn't mean he's magically going to become a good pitcher?

I see your premise, but this is the 22nd of March, not the 22nd of May. If we get to that date in May and his ERA is hovering around the 7.00 mark then yeah, people are going to say same ole same ole.

But this is a meaningless game in March. No biggie in my opinion.

[Chip R]

Don't you think people are smart enought to realize that just because someone different is signing his paychecks doesn't mean he's magically going to become a good pitcher?

I see your premise, but this is the 22nd of March, not the 22nd of May. If we get to that date in May and his ERA is hovering around the 7.00 mark then yeah, people are going to say same ole same ole.

But this is a meaningless game in March. No biggie in my opinion.

Of course not but Bob is supposed to be a man of action. People are smart enough to know his presence alone can't turn Milton into an adequate pitcher but he does have the power to release him if it is apparent he's the same pitcher as last year.

Think of this game as a preview of coming attractions for a movie. If the coming attractions aren't attractive, people aren't going to see the movie. I don't think it would be that big of a deal if the game weren't on TV and at night. But it is and that's why I feel it is a big game. If Milton pitches 3 innings of baseball and doesn't get hit hard, there will be some hope. If he gets pounded, it's going to be :lastyear: and nobody wants a repeat of that.

[gilpdawg]

PECOTA's 90% projection for Milton(he has a 10% chance to get to this level)
3.69 ERA 1.21 WHIP 199 IP

50% projection
4.96 ERA 1.38 WHIP 174 IP

PECOTA doesn't think a sub 5 ERA is unreasonable but anything approaching Cy Young level is obviously ludicrous.
I'd be very pleased with the 50% projection.

[Yachtzee]

That's a shame. I thought it might since that Reds Week stuff was.

I was hoping, but it looks like they've chosen to give us Poker Superstars. :(

[membengal]

Eric Milton may win the 2006 NL Cy Young.

or not.

But just seeing 6 Ks in 4 innings from him was damn weird. Nice. But weird.

[redsfan30]

Very encouraging outing from Milton. I didn't see him hit much over 92 MPH last year and when he was hitting that it was early in the year. Tonight he was consistantly around 93-94 and seemed to be able to keep the ball down. He also mixed in a few nice breaking balls. Nice five innings for sure.

Not ready to start up the Milton for Cy Young campaign just yet, but tonight was definetly encouraging. Hopefully he can take tonight and build off it.

[Shaknb8k]

Im not going to take much out of the outing since it was ST. But it was pretty much against an Opening Day lineup for the Twins and he looked real good. I liked the way he hit the inside of the plate on the right handers. Probably does have to do with setting up on the 1st base side of the rubber (George and Chris definatly wore that out duing the game). I was very impressed but like i said it was ST but its nice to see that kind of outing from a Reds pitcher no matter what time of the year it is.

[KoryMac5]

Very encouraging outing from Milton. I didn't see him hit much over 92 MPH last year and when he was hitting that it was early in the year. Tonight he was consistantly around 93-94 and seemed to be able to keep the ball down. He also mixed in a few nice breaking balls. Nice five innings for sure.

I think that is what most of us were hoping for. In the games I saw of him last year he was all arm not using any of his lower body at all to pitch. I was impressed with the outing for sure.

[wheels]

He had a good night, but from the second inning on, his fastball was topping out in the 88-91 mph range.

That'll get ya raked right quick with a fastball as straight as his during the season.

[KronoRed]

If he can bring 94 for 1 inning then we have a closer ;)

[KoryMac5]

He had a good night, but from the second inning on, his fastball was topping out in the 88-91 mph range.

That'll get ya raked right quick with a fastball as straight as his during the season.

Location also has a big thing to do with whether u get raked or not. I've seen a few major league pitchers who threw 95 or better get raked too.

[redsfan30]

He had a good night, but from the second inning on, his fastball was topping out in the 88-91 mph range.
True, but if he can keep the ball down he can still be successful around 90-91MPH. It's when he keeps it up (which he did all last year) is when he gets bombed.

[Newport Red]

Very encouraging outing from Milton. I didn't see him hit much over 92 MPH last year and when he was hitting that it was early in the year. Tonight he was consistantly around 93-94 and seemed to be able to keep the ball down. He also mixed in a few nice breaking balls. Nice five innings for sure.

Not ready to start up the Milton for Cy Young campaign just yet, but tonight was definetly encouraging. Hopefully he can take tonight and build off it.

It was encouraging. If he strings a few of these games together in the regular season, he may not be compared to Cy Young. He may become tradeable.

[KoryMac5]

Traded for who another second baseman.

[Nugget]

If he strings a few of these games together why would you not keep him? Its not as if there are any other starting pitchers to fill the hole.

[Heath]

Maybe Milton can go back to the Twins..... :dunno:

He did look good - but it IS March - but he looked sharp - but there's past history.

See me around Memorial Day.

[Chip R]

Traded for who another second baseman.

No, silly, another catcher. :p:

[traderumor]

It's not necessarily big for Milton. He's going to get his money whether he makes 30 starts or is cut tomorrow. It's more important to Bob, the front office and the coaches and Narron.

It's important for Bob because his honeymoon is probably about over. No matter how much he talks about things changing, if people see Milton give up 5-6 runs tonight - and they will see it tonight if it happens - they are going to believe nothing has changed. Plus they will be less likely to buy tickets to games and watch games on TV and listen to the games on the radio. All adding up to less revenue for the Reds. It's important to Bob also because he has $17M tied up in Milton over the next two years thanks to Dimwit DanO. Bob's already given DanO the boot. Would he bite that $17M bullet for Milton? Bob may be different than Lindner in a lot of ways but I'll bet you he's not crazy about eating that contract either.

It's important to the front office because they have to feel if Milton blows tonight, they may have to put him in the bullpen and make another deal for pitching. Maybe Kearns is the one to go this time. Maybe it's LaRue. Might be FeLo. If he does well, that may be one less thing to worry about.

It's important for Narron and his coaches because their jobs are on the line. If they run the 2005 version of Milton out there every 5th day, the Reds aren't going to win a lot of games. Coaches have been on record as saying he's looked like a totally diferent pitcher out there. He goes out tonight and blows, no amount of spin by Narron and his coaches is going to make people think Milton is going to be anything short of a disaster. He pitches well tonight and they look like heros. Exhibition games shouldn't be this important but this one is.
Good analysis, Chip. The good news is that Milton carried the torch for a night. The better news for the Reds is that if they have their number 4 starter throw like that and he remains the fourth best pitcher in the rotation, regardless of what they are paying him, then they will likely be in better position than expected. But again, I better slow down...Minnesota was the worst offensive team in the AL last year and they basically have the same crew back.

[Chip R]

Good analysis, Chip. The good news is that Milton carried the torch for a night. The better news for the Reds is that if they have their number 4 starter throw like that and he remains the fourth best pitcher in the rotation, regardless of what they are paying him, then they will likely be in better position than expected. But again, I better slow down...Minnesota was the worst offensive team in the AL last year and they basically have the same crew back.

Milton's performance last night was good news for everyone. The organization breathed a collective sigh of relief. Now that doesn't mean he's not going to go out there his next start and get killed. As bad as he was last year, he did pitch a few gems - like in S.D. If they are going with 4 days between starts it looks like he'll pitch again on Monday night against PIT. That game will be on TV too. So he'll be on trial again if that's the case. It would be nice if he pitched like that again but I think people will settle for something not quite as good as last night's performance but not horrible.

[Puffy]

If he strings a few of these games together why would you not keep him? Its not as if there are any other starting pitchers to fill the hole.

Fools gold.

If anybody will take Milton you get rid of him as fast as possible. Then use his money next year to bring in real pitchers.

[cincrazy]

Milton's outing last night was very encouraging. A lot of the times, Spring Training stats can be useless. But in the case, I don't think they were. He did this primarily against the Twins starting lineup, was never really in any trouble, and the only run he gave up should not have scored. He constantly got ahead of hitters, his pitch count was great, and he kept the ball down, while also throwing strikes with his breaking balls. As bad as Milton was last year, he does have a track record of at least SOME success in the Majors. Granted, this is 5-8 years later, but he can still be decent for us. I'm willing to give this guy a second chance. One horrific year does not make a career. And one great Spring Training start does not make a season. So hopefully he can just build on this, and put himself in position to have a good year.

[RollyInRaleigh]

From a pure mechanics standpoint, I thought that Milton looked a lot different than he did, all of last season. He was much more agressive driving toward the plate and his arm speed looked a lot better. I think you can attribute that to the knee feeling better. He was throwing the 4 seamer, which generally, has more velocity than the 2 seam sinker (which didn't sink much) that Gullett was trying to get him to throw last season. The curve looked to have a sharper break than the one he threw last season, and I think you can attribute that also to the knee feeling better, arm speed and a more agressive drive toward the plate.

My biggest concern for Milton is the ongoing condition of the knee. If (and probably a better statement is "when." I sincerely hope not) it gets gimpy again, he will revert back to the pitcher we saw last season.

I was impressed with what I saw from him last night. I even watched it again this morning. My fear is the ongoing condition of the knee. A strong first half would be great, but I'm sure that other GM's are more aware of the condition than anyone here. I wish him the best, and hope he can remain healthy.