Pena traded for Arroyo

[BrooklynRedz]

Pena is a Red Sox. Arroyo is now a Red. It's official.

[Hooligan]

Where are you getting your info? I see nothing on ESPN, CBS.Sportsline or either of the team websites.

[OldRightHander]

I'm not finding this anywhere.

[Chip R]

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060320&content_id=1356543&vkey=pr_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

[OnBaseMachine]

Reds got ripped off.

Krivsky's first trade=F+

[ochre]

I'm pretty sure Brooklynredz is a reliable early source on these types of things, just for future reference.

[wheels]

Yup Brooklyn's got cred.

[SirFelixCat]

Ugh. Not only do we get a 4.5 ERA pitcher, which is moderately better than what we had (though that IS in the AL), but the offense takes a BIG hit with Hatteberg a full-time starter now. I don't see them letting Denorfia start, so the whole Dunn to 1st was a sham? What gives?

Or was the FO all of a sudden terrified that they only have two major league starters in the rotation?!?

[remdog]

Ugh! I'm not surprised to see WMP traded but I was hopeing to get better pitching for him.

I was also looking forward to seeing an OF of WMP, JR and Kearnes. Worst part is that it looks like Hatteberg is now the starting first baseman.

Sigh!

Rem

[ochre]

Maybe they can try Kearns at 3b? The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[SirFelixCat]

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=4426


They seem to love the trade. Color me shocked :sarcasm: Ya think?!?

[Cant Touch This]

Confirmed on Marc's blog.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/

Not sure how I feel about this one yet...

[registerthis]

Just what we need--another flyball pitcher with low K totals. Everything about him sreams "average" to me--no complete games, average BB totals, low K totals, etc. He was able to keep the ball in the park significantly more than, say, Milton--and he pitched in a hitter's park, too, so that much is encouraging.

On the flipside, while I don't think Arroyo is this team's answer for its pitching needs, I think people have a serious tendency to overvalue WMP. He's got all the raw talent in the world, but unrefined talent is worthless. While i would have rather seen the reds get more of a groundball pitcher--or one with a higher K rate--a pitcher in the neighborhood of Arroyo is about where WMP's value currently sits.

At least the Reds answered one of their question marks in the rotation--and this perhaps also opens the possibility of Milton moving to the bullpen if he continues to remain ineffective as a starter.

[Crash Davis]

Yippee! Another #4 starter.

The more things change...

Even if WMP struggles to reach his ceiling, he's far too talented to give up on for the likes of Bronson Arroyo. What's Arroyo's upside? We've seen it.

[NJReds]

I'm not crazy about this. Even though he's better than most of the schlubs we have, Arroyo seems very average. I would have prefered to see what WMP could playing FT before dealing him off for an average pitcher.

[PickOff]

Ugh! I'm not surprised to see WMP traded but I was hopeing to get better pitching for him.

I was also looking forward to seeing an OF of WMP, JR and Kearnes. Worst part is that it looks like Hatteberg is now the starting first baseman.

Sigh!

Rem

I wouldn't assume Hatteberg gets the vast majority of starts at first. At least I hope not. This does give the Reds more flexibility with Freel, however, and since he has been seeing alot of time in the outfield, this move gives him more playing time with Dunn at first half the time. You know Narron likes this, cause now he can ride the hot hand between Hatteberg and Freel and slot Richie Rich at second when Freel plays OF. I think we will see an equal rotation between Hatteberg, Rich, Freel, and Womack IMO - also depending on productivity.

I do wonder what Krivsky is thinking long term here, though. Where does he envision our outfield in the future. Denorfia - RF, Kearns - CF, Dunn - LF. All I can say is I hope he has a plan.

Do I like this trade? I like it for the short term because it does make our team better now, and measurably so. But like I said, Krivsky better have a plan.

[Crash Davis]

Worst part is that it looks like Hatteberg is now the starting first baseman.

Sigh!

Rem

It wouldn't take much to imagine a worse scenario. This opens up LF for Freel, so they can get Womack & Aurilia into the lineup at 2B on a regular basis.

[ochre]

counter intuitively, what if Pena struggles in the AL? It's been assumed that since defensively his best position is DH that the AL was the place for him. The AL, however, has traditionally been more of a breaking ball league. Is this still true? If so, I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle.

[Chip R]

counter intuitively, what if Pena struggles in the AL? It's been assumed that since defensively his best position is DH that the AL was the place for him. The AL, however, has traditionally been more of a breaking ball league. Is this still true? If so, I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle.

And the Sox already have a DH unless they plan on moving Ortiz back to 1st.

[OldRightHander]

I'm slightly disappointed, but I'm going to adopt a wait and see approach.

[PuffyPig]

On the plus side, Arroyo's stats weren't helped by pitching in Boston, and he's signed to a fairly friendly 3 year contract (if I recall correctly). Pena would start making big money after this season, even if he didn't improve much. Arroyo, because of his contract, was a fairly valuable trading chip. He did pitch 200 innings last year, with an ERA in the AL (in Boston) of about 4.50.

There's some hope here. His ERA over the last 3 years away from home is about 3.50.

[Bigg Red Smokey]

Just when you thought it could not get any worse... It does.

At least you got to hand it Krivsky, it took a lot of sack to make this move. If Pena comtinues to develop consistently over the enxt few years, and Arroyo does what most pitchers do at the GAB then this could wind up as one of the worst trades in the last 15 years.

Edit: I have to admit that Arroya has grown on me during his time in Boston, but the Reds took a huge risk here. I can just envision Pena just mashing w/ the BoSox.

[registerthis]

On the plus side, Arroyo's stats weren't helped by pitching in Boston, and he's signed to a fairly friendly 3 year contract (if I recall correctly). Pena would start making big money after this season, even if he didn't improve much. Arroyo, because of his contract, was a fairly valuable trading chip. He did pitch 200 innings last year, with an ERA in the AL (in Boston) of about 4.50.

There's some hope here. His ERA over the last 3 years away from home is about 3.50.

He's easily the best starter the Reds have beyond Harang and Claussen, and he may be better than Claussen. There's no question this trade improves the pitching staff. Like I wrote earlier, I would have rather seen the Reds go after a higher K guy, but I'm willing to see what Arroyo can bring.

[flyer85]

I just hope they don't give 1B to Hatteberg. Here is a chance to improve the defense, make Denorfia a starter.

[deltachi8]

And the Reds still lose 90 games.

Bad deal.

[registerthis]

Just when you thought it could not get any worse... It does.

How are the Reds worse for this move?

[chicoruiz]

Remember when the BoSox traded away a young Jeff Bagwell to acquire a mediocre veteran pitcher named Larry Anderson?

I hope this isn't an example of that karma coming back around...

[PickOff]

How are the Reds worse for this move?

They aren't. It is a good short term move if Krivsky has a strong long term plan.

[flyer85]

I'm very ambivalent. It only helps if they put Freel in center and move Jr to left or put Freel at 2B and put Denorfia in CF.

[Cedric]

The Reds wanted to make a point and they did it. Yippee! Another fourth starter at best. I really can't handle this organization much longer.

[registerthis]

I'm very ambivalent. It only helps if they put Freel in center and move Jr to left or put Freel at 2B and put Denorfia in CF.

I'm convinced that Womack is going to be handed an everyday job come Opening Day, so i like the idea of penciling in Freel in CF and moving Jr. to a corner spot. Has Jr. gone on record one way or the other as to whether or not he would accept a move?

[Johnny Footstool]

If Clement was on the table and the Reds walked away with Arroyo, Krivsky should be lynched.

As it is, Arroyo is a junkballer with flyball tendencies who forgot how to strike batters out last season. He only struck out 100 batters in 205 innings last season. That's not a recipe for "cautious optimism"; it's a recipe for disaster.


How are the Reds worse for this move?

They traded away a decent commodity for absolute junk, that's how.

This trade makes me sick.

[letsgojunior]

I'm torn on this trade. I don't think Pena was as good as some had him pegged as, but I don't think Arroyo is really anything to write home about either.

[Red in Chicago]

i'm sad to see wmp leave the team this year...i was looking forward to a big year from him...that said, at least we got some "decent" pitching in return...we weren't going to win with what we had, so at least we're making some changes...i realize change for the sake of making changes isn't a winning attitude, but i'm willing to accept baby steps...

[Bigg Red Smokey]

How are the Reds worse for this move?

I believe Mo Pena brought a lot of balance to the lineup. Pitchers at least have to respect his ability to put one "out" at any time. I just do not think that they can replace that with anyone on the roster or anyone in the system.

This team had better figure out that the young talent that virtually comes up through the sytsem, is the talent that you want to keep around. How many teams out there trade this type of player? Eventually this trade will come down to what we get out of Arroyo, chances are after a season or a season and a half at the GAB it will be considerably less than a Mo Pena.

[Cedric]

I'm with Johnny. Good organizations don't flip Pena talent for Bronson Arroyo garbage. This reeks of Jerry and the boys basically throwing Pena away because he isn't "scrappy" enough. I hate saying that, but it's absurd.

[registerthis]

They traded away a decent commodity for absolute junk, that's how.

This trade makes me sick.

Arroyo isn't absolute junk--he had a very respectable HR total last year (22), he pitched well on the road, and a 4.5 ERA in a hitter-friendly AL park is not bad. He's not a number one ace, but Pena wasn't a top-tier outfielder. I'd argue that at this stage in their respective careers, Arroyo is as decent a commodity as Pena is. We simply traded an average OFer for an average starter, and this team needs pitching more than anything else. Thus, I don't see how the Reds got "worse" with this deal.

[Kc61]

Like all trades, you have to give this a chance. But the Reds have traded Casey and Pena for two pitchers with questionable stuff. I hope it works out, but can't be too happy about it.

I guess Krivsky didn't think WMP would overcome his hitting tendencies, lots of strikeouts on bad pitches, trouble hitting breaking pitches off the plate. Hope he's right, or Reds just gave up a big time power hitter.

Of course, Pena does belong in the AL because he cannot field at all. On the other hand, you have to wonder whether the Sox will play him regularly. Pena is a terrible bench player and would thrive, I think, with a team that can afford to just leave him out there every day.

[Cedric]

Arroyo isn't absolute junk--he had a very respectable HR total last year (22), he pitched well on the road, and a 4.5 ERA in a hitter-friendly AL park is not bad. He's not a number one ace, but Pena wasn't a top-tier outfielder. I'd argue that at this stage in their respective careers, Arroyo is as decent a commodity as Pena is.

I find it VERY hard to believe that Bronson frickin Arroyo is the best you could get for Pena. Maybe the Reds just helped torpedo his worth by bashing him any chance they could get in the papers.

[deltachi8]

How are the Reds worse for this move?

How are they better?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I must be one of the few that likes this trade.

[registerthis]

How are they better?

They received a starting pitcher who is easily the third-best on the team. The Reds have offense to spare, but their pitching staff is running on fumes. This deal is a bust for the Reds if Arroyo pulls a Milton and WMP hits 40 HRs and learns how to catch a fly ball. The people decrying this trade are doing so out of WMP's speculative value, and out of a belief that Arroyo will become exponentially worse than he was in Boston last year.

Dunn, Junior, Lopez, Encarnacion, Freel and LaRue will provide plenty of offense for this team. The starting pitching needed a boost, and this trade provides it.

[37red]

It's true. WMP is always referred to as going to have a break out year. Other than at the plate, and only sometimes, he was a less than average outfielder. The Arroyo trade is just another pitcher for what ever that's worth. For years now we've needed two good aces on the mound and haven't had one. Time will tell, but for now it's a little better to have another decent pitcher than an extra decent outfielder.

[SirFelixCat]

Bottom line. This is the chance to improve the defense now. Get Denorfia in there. DO NOT START WOMACK AND HATTEBERG....PLEASE?!?!

[registerthis]

I find it VERY hard to believe that Bronson frickin Arroyo is the best you could get for Pena. Maybe the Reds just helped torpedo his worth by bashing him any chance they could get in the papers.

What do you believe would be fair value for a player of Pena's stature?

[SirFelixCat]

Since I keep getting ignored in the other thread...anyone know how PECOTA sees BA this season?

[RFS62]

We traded the right guy. The return remains to be seen, but if he get's 15 quality starts this year, after 20 last year, I'll be very happy.

[Cedric]

What do you believe would be fair value for a player of Pena's stature?

I do know that Austin Kearns has about ten lifes in this organization. They are holding Kearns back for a kings ransom and they trade Pena for Bronson Arroyo?

[registerthis]

We traded the right guy. The return remains to be seen, but if he get's 15 quality starts this year, after 20 last year, I'll be very happy.

Same here. People are treating Arroyo like he's the second coming of Jimmy Anderson.

[flyer85]

They received a starting pitcher who is easily the third-best on the team. Which isn't saying much on the Reds.


The Reds have offense to spare,they won't if it means Womack and Hatteberg, which will be a defensive downgrade as well which I didn't think was possible for what was the worst defensive team in baseball in 2005.

[Crash Davis]

Right about now Wayne Krivsky has to be feeling like he just sobered up after a long night in Pat Summit's hotel room.

[registerthis]

I do know that Austin Kearns has about ten lifes in this organization. They are holding Kearns back for a kings ransom and they trade Pena for Bronson Arroyo?

Kearns' value is likely lower than Pena's at this point.

[Cedric]

Same here. People are treating Arroyo like he's the second coming of Jimmy Anderson.

Look at his decreasing K rate and his groundball/flyball ratio. He lost velocity last year also.

[flyer85]

Bottom line. This is the chance to improve the defense now. Get Denorfia in there. DO NOT START WOMACK AND HATTEBERG....PLEASE?!?!that has to be the rallying cry of this trade. If they end up as the starters we will know the organization is still every bit as clueless at they were under DanO.

[Cedric]

Kearns' value is likely lower than Pena's at this point.

It sure as hell looks like in the Reds organization Kearns has much higher value.

And we can't run Hatteberg and Womack out there everyday and still say we have a good lineup. This year is gonna get VERY ugly before it even starts.

[registerthis]

Which isn't saying much on the Reds.

But you have to start somewhere. This team needs help now, and they aren't going to sign a Martinez or Clemens. Arroyo isn't chopped liver--he will help this team, albeit marginally.


they won't if it means Womack and Hatteberg, which will be a defensive downgrade as well which I didn't think was possible for what was the worst defensive team in baseball in 2005.

Womack was going to start regardless of what the OF situation was like. Dunn could become a good 1B man, but isn't there yet. The Reds are in the unenviable situation of playing in a hitter's park with an infield defense that is incapable of supporting a groundball pitcher. Not much to work with there.

[creek14]

I wonder if the BoSox will try to restructure WMP's contract so they can send him down.

:cool:

[registerthis]

It sure as hell looks like in the Reds organization Kearns has much higher value.

...or it's entirely possible that the Reds offered up kearns and received nothing of interest. Pena was the more tradeable commodity of the two.

BTW, as I asked earlier, what DO you believe is a fair value for Pena? You think Arroyo is beneath him, so what would be an acceptable return for him?

[westofyou]

IMO WMP either willl go Aldolpho Phillips or Henry Rodriguez, not Sosa.

Meanwhile the Reds now have a 200 inning guy, hopefully by next year he's #4 not #2.

[traderumor]

Looking at Arroyo's last two seasons, the WHIP was 1.22 and 1.30, respectively. By comparison, last year's rotation:

Harang 1.27, Milton 1.55, Ortiz 1.50, Claussen 1.41, and consider Williams 1.41

Additionally, he gave up the same number of homers as Harang. The downside? Lefties killed him last year and the K rate sunk like a rock. Not sure what to make of the K rate drop, but lefties in GABP could make for some long nights for Arroyo. So, Harang without the K's? Maybe he'll find his K's from 2004.

Now, was it value for WMP? I like the opinion so far that they traded the right OFer if it comes down to WMP/Kearns and that we got an average pitcher for an average outfielder. And while WMP makes one salivate with the prodigious homers, I'd say the probability is low that he becomes anything more than an average big leaguer at best.

[RFS62]

I wonder if the BoSox will try to restructure WMP's contract so they can send him down.

:cool:




Wow, great idea!!!

[flyer85]

Dunn could become a good 1B man, but isn't there yet. And Hatteberg(a converted catcher) has never there nor will he ever be. Hatteberg is a serious defensive downgrade from Casey with zero upside. At least Dunn brings more range a huge target, Hatterberg is a short 1B. WOmack is a downgrade from both Freel and Aurilia(who isn't as bad at 2B as people think).

[SirFelixCat]

Does Anyone Have/know What Pecota Says About Bronson Arroyo?!?

[SteelSD]

We traded the right guy. The return remains to be seen, but if he get's 15 quality starts this year, after 20 last year, I'll be very happy.

RFS, 15 Quality Starts for a full season would be exactly two more than were acquired by Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz in 2005. In short, 15 QS is pretty much junk level. If that happens you can expect an ERA right around 5.00.

[CrackerJack]

Lance McAlister's blog reaction: (sounds like he's grasping for positives - I still think WMP was worth more than cash and Arroyo, should've netted a worthwhile prospect at least)


If you don't like the deal, you are not paying attention
Reasons to like Bronson Arroyo
He's named after Charles Bronson
He's locked in financially for three years
'06 3.5 mill
'07 3.8 mill
'08 3.9 mill
Led Boston with 20 quality starts in 2005
Sox scored 18 total runs in his 9 losses.....scoring 1 run or less four times, 2 runs or less 7 times.
He left 5 starts in line for the win, and the bullpen could not hold it.
Opponents attempted ONLY 8 steals against him......succeeding on 5......in his career, teams have stolen just 20 of 33, 61%
He worked at least 6 innings in 25 of his 32 starts........7 innings or more in 15 starts
He walked two or fewer in 23 of his 32 starts....one or less in 19 starts..........none in 5 starts.

[Roy Tucker]

The more I think about it, the more $$$ was a big factor.

[Bigg Red Smokey]

He left 5 starts in line for the win, and the bullpen could not hold it.

He had better get used to that...


He walked two or fewer in 23 of his 32 starts....one or less in 19 starts..........none in 5 starts.

At least thats nice...

[SirFelixCat]

The more I think about it, the more $$$ was a big factor.
Well, seeing as it is not going to the Commish's office for approval, it has to be less than $1M, right?

[flyer85]

Does Anyone Have/know What Pecota Says About Bronson Arroyo?!?
Arroyo's 50% PECOTA Line

192.0 IP
205 Hits
46 BB
115 Ks
24 HR
42%GB -slight GB pitcher similar to Harang
1.31 WHIP
4.37 ERA
25.6 VORP

Breakout 13
Improve 55
Collapse 9(very low)
attrition 2 (very very low)

[SirFelixCat]

Arroyo's 50% PECOTA Line

192.0 IP
205 Hits
46 BB
115 Ks
24 HR
42%GB -slight GB pitcher similar to Harang
1.31 WHIP
4.37 ERA
25.6 VORP

Breakout 13
Improve 55
Collapse 9(very low)
attrition 2 (very very low)

While not "bad" not great. And for 2007 and on, that gets worse and worse. Time will tell. Just don't start Womack and Hatteberg, please.

[PuffyPig]

Even if Pena broke out, he wasn't long for this team for $$$ reasons. He wouls likely always be over priced due to his HR's.

Arroyo is signed for 3 more years at less than $4M per year.

The more I think about it, the more it's absolutely clear that this was all about $$$$, and the cost certainty of Arroyo vs. Pena. And that's the best part of the trade.

[OnBaseMachine]

Bronson Arroyo-National League Career

187 ip, 217 h, 23 hr, 85 bb, 111 k, 1.62 whip, 5.44 era

[flyer85]

While not "bad" not great. And for 2007 and on, that gets worse and worse.
2006 VORP - 24.6
2007 16.6
2008 12.8

2006 MORP $6,750,000
2007 $5,025,000
2008 $4,175,000

[Joseph]

Question, since he signed a multi year deal, can he request a trade after the season, or was this waived by Arroyo?

[danforsman]

What's Boston's OF alignment going to be? If Manny and WMP are going to be manning the corner spots, that's going to be worth the price of admission in terms of comedic value.

[Falls City Beer]

They aren't. It is a good short term move if Krivsky has a strong long term plan.

Brilliantly stated.

I like this move a lot.

[traderumor]

Bronson Arroyo-National League Career

187 ip, 217 h, 23 hr, 85 bb, 111 k, 1.62 whip, 5.44 era

Which tells us one thing--Pittsburgh rushed him or he got coached up in Boston.

[Red Leader]

I'm back in "I don't care anymore" mode with the Reds. It's funny, we needed pitching, everybody knows that. I was hoping out of WMP or Kearns that WMP was the player we'd give up, but now that it has been done, I don't like it so much. I was hoping we'd get a pitcher like Arroyo along with a stud pitching prospect to stick in the rotation with Bailey and allow them to work through the minors together, dominating people. I realize now that we'll suck this year, and we're still "bridging the gap" before we'll be good. That's what this trade says to me.

I was hoping Krivsky would address both short term and long term concerns when he traded WMP or Kearns. Seems the long term has been ignored, again.

[deltachi8]

A guy down the hall (and possibly my new boss) just walked into my office knowing I am a big Reds fan and said, Arroyo in Cincy has 7-15, 5.50 written all over it.

So its not just Reds fans who dont like this.

[Roy Tucker]

Arroyo is signed for 3 more years at less than $4M per year.

The more I think about it, the more it's absolutely clear that this was all about $$$$, and the cost certainty of Arroyo vs. Pena. And that's the best part of the trade.
Yeah, that's the point I was trying to make.

The Reds seem to be willing to trade $$$ for talent.

[Johnny Footstool]

If you like this move, you need to learn a little about strikeout rates and their ability to predict success.

You can't ignore that ridiculous drop in K rate he experienced last season. What caused it? Was he injured? Forgetful? Angry about Brad and Angelina?

Granted, if he returns to his prior K rate (over 7 Ks per 9 IP), I'll be okay with this deal. If he doesn't, Krivsky should be lynched.

[Red Leader]

But Arroyo was traded in the middle of a LTC, and as a result, he can ask for a trade at the end of THIS YEAR. I'm hoping that he stays healthy and pitches well and that the Reds can flip him for more talent at the deadline.

[RFS62]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?

[OldXOhio]

I was hoping we'd get a pitcher like Arroyo along with a stud pitching prospect

Exactly who did you expect would give up that much for WMP? Someone who no longer has a GM job I'm guessing.

[SirFelixCat]

Oh and it's official according to Marc's blog: Dunn is going back to left with Hatteberg getting the majority of the playing time at first base.

Also, we are getting $1.5 million back from the Sox.

Just shoot me now

[IslandRed]

Question, since he signed a multi year deal, can he request a trade after the season, or was this waived by Arroyo?

You have to reach the free-agency threshold before that becomes an option, so I've heard, and Arroyo won't be eligible for free agency until this contract ends.

[Cedric]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?

That to me isn't the point. Why is Arroyo worth the risk of trading Pena now? Do you really care about winning 75 games instead of 65? I'd rather give Pena a chance for a big early start and then flip him for something that could help later this season. What's the big rush in going from extremely crappy to still very crappy?

And if Tony Womack and Hatteberg start this year I am literally at the lowest that I could ever get with this team. I'll wait and pray that Krivsky and Narron aren't that dumb.

[traderumor]

Yeah, that's the point I was trying to make.

The Reds seem to be willing to trade $$$ for talent.It's about value. It doesn't matter what a guy gets paid, what matters is whether or not his production is commensurate with his value.

With WMP, he was similar to that start up company that was soon going to need another major capital infusion with the possible return on investment still in the high risk category, with the possibility of never getting a return.

But, at this stage, I can't see WMP's cost being a major factor in the decision, but I can see Arroyo's cost with the going rate for even average starters now about twice what he's getting being a major factor.

If I had to enter a season with the rotation I had, I'd be doing anything I could to upgrade it, also. I'm not sure why GABP is such a concern for numbers going through the roof for Arroyo. He held his own in Fenway for two seasons and excelled on the road. There is a good possibility his numbers could approach 2004 levels.

[pedro]

I think it's a pretty good deal.

[flyer85]

Dunn going to LF and Hatteberg is 1b is an AWFUL, AWFUL decision. Krivsky and Narron have truly transformed this into a solid 6th place team and possibly even worse than the Marlins.

[westofyou]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?George Bell?

Rocky Bridges?

Harry Walker and Peanuts Lowrey?

[Cedric]

Dunn going to LF and Hatteberg is 1b is an AWFUL, AWFUL decision. Krivsky and Narron have truly transformed this into a solid 6th place team and possibly even worse than the Marlins.

It's a classic Reds type move. They literally make me shake my head in disgust.

[Cedric]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?

I wouldn't have even thought of trading him right now if Arroyo is his best value. No way, no how.

[westofyou]

It's a classic Reds type move. They literally make me shake my head in disgust.
Upgrading defense and pitching instead of hitting is the opposite of a classic Reds move, at least in most of my lifetime.

[Caveat Emperor]

That to me isn't the point. Why is Arroyo worth the risk of trading Pena now? Do you really care about winning 75 games instead of 65? I'd rather give Pena a chance for a big early start and then flip him for something that could help later this season. What's the big rush in going from extremely crappy to still very crappy?

Cynically, because the attendence drops off a LOT faster if you're 20 games out of first in June as opposed to not falling that far out until August.

As much as I think it's a good idea to tank a season, play for Kearns and Pena to increase their trade value, and concentrate on building for '07 and '08, an owner never wants to look at an empty house for a homestand in July.

[M2]

I'd say PECOTA's got a solid baseline for Arroyo there. It's important to remember that last year was the first time he went above 200 IP. He hit the wall after the All-Star break and had to fight through it. I expect he'll come back wiser, stronger and better prepared for a 200 IP season this year.

Arroyo has real good movement on his pitches and pretty sharp control when he's on, so I'm reasonably confident his K rate will rise in 2006. All things considered, he should be a solid pitcher. Heading into the season with Harang, Arroyo and Claussen is the best Reds have been for a front three in the rotation since 1999, though each guy probably has a #3 pitcher ceiling (200+ IP, ERA in the high 3.00s). Harang might be able to deliver those innings with a sub-3.50 ERA, but that would be more of a one-shot deal than a consistent run.

I expect Pena will be a pretty big bat for the Red Sox in the coming years. I'll stick by my Ron Gant comparison.

Ideally you wouldn't want to trade a young Ron Gant for a Dave Burba type, but the Reds need to practice some Realpolitik. I'll resurrect something princeton said a long time ago about the JimBo Reds, they should be willing to lose a trade to get what they need. It seems to me they just did that. Pena probably will be the better talent out of this trade. But can he pitch? No. Arroyo can.

Also, Pena shouldn't be the last OF the Reds trade this year for pitching. Kearns and Jr. should be on the block for the right price. There's a lot of work left to do. The good news is it this move indicates Krivsky's up for doing it. The Reds need to be remade and 200 IP of a guy who should be at least an average pitcher isn't a bad start.

[flyer85]

It's not the Arroyo part that bothers me, it is the corresonding moves that is just another kick to the nuts.

[dsmith421]

I think it's a pretty good deal.

It's a pretty good deal if Denorfia becomes the starting left fielder, Freel and Encarnacion continue to start, and no one even thinks about letting Aurilia, Womack, or Hatteberg get 500 PAs this season.

Oops, for a minute there I thought I was rooting for an intelligent franchise. My bad.

[Cedric]

It's not the Arroyo part that bothers me, it is the corresonding moves that is just another kick to the nuts.

In my view something reeks out of this. Hatteberg and Tony Womack have no business being on this roster and yet they are fighting for an opening day gig. I don't think much has changed around here.

I wouldn't be surprised if Aurilla, Womack, and Hatteberg each play a ton this year. It's the Reds way.

[SirFelixCat]

It's not the Arroyo part that bothers me, it is the corresonding moves that is just another kick to the nuts.


That sums up how I feel. TY flyer

[traderumor]

Upgrading defense and pitching instead of hitting is the opposite of a classic Reds move, at least in most of my lifetime.That is exactly why I did not see WMP having a future with Krivsky. He likes hims defense. That is also why I am not real worried about Womack. His play in the field this ST will continue in the season and help seal his fate.

[Crash Davis]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?

Jeff Francis...Brandon McCarthy...maybe Rich Hill in a package...Scott Olsen in a package...Cesar Carillo in a package.

Somebody with more upside. Maybe the same guy will have a greater chance of falling on his face too, but this team needs to take a chance a guy who could be coming into his own as a top of the line starter. The roster is already lousy with #4s and potential #4s.

I think you may be asking the wrong question. It's not about who WMP could have brought in a trade. The question is: why are we trading a significant chip below peak value once again? Christ, have we learned nothing from Paul Wilson, Sean Casey, Danny Graves, Scott Williamson et al.?

I would have given Wily Mo a chance to build his value in a full time role. If his value isn't high enough to get a more talented pitcher, then why trade him now rather than later? Obviously, Krivsky doesn't believe WMP will increase his value.

[Johnny Footstool]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?

A good prospect or two from a bat-hungry, pitching-fat organization like the Royals, Pirates, Twins, Dodgers, etc. And, BTW, I hate trading for pitching prospects, but I still think that would have been a better return for Pena than Arroyo.


But can he pitch? No. Arroyo can.

Then what happened to his K rate last season? You don't see such a dramatic dropoff in K's unless something is horribly wrong.

[M2]

Just wondering out loud, but I'm guessing this means Hatteberg and Aurilia are handling the 1B chores with Dunn heading back to LF.

Mind you, I'd much rather leave Dunn at 1B, shift Jr. to LF and install Denorfia in CF. Unfortunately I can't imagine that's got a chance in hell.

[indy_dave00]

Well lets after Wily Mo Pena hits 40 homers with the convient green monster , it will be interesting to hear people in Cincy's comments.

The Reds need pitching badly but if Matt Clement was available the Reds picked the wrong pitcher. Clement has better stuff , and better movement on his pitches , plus he has pitched in Wrigley so he has experience in an NL homer haven.

I'd have hoped the Reds could have acquired a young arm along with Arroyo , at this point personally I'd just as soon seen Justin Germano every 5th day as Arroyo.

A #4 starter for Sammy Sosa minus the roids does not excite me in anyway. Sorry at this point this deal to me is no better than a deal Dano would have made.

[registerthis]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?
I've been asking this question for 3 pages now, have yet to get a response.

[flyer85]

In my view something reeks out of this. Hatteberg and Tony Womack have no business being on this roster and yet they are fighting for an opening day gig.Exactly. In 2004 WOmack was -14 FRAA at 2b and Hatteberg was -14 at 1B. Unbelievable that the worst defensive team in baseball is going for defensive downgrades, I didn't think it was possible.

[Cedric]

Jeff Francis...Brandon McCarthy...maybe Rich Hill in a package...Scott Olsen in a package...Cesar Carillo in a package.

Somebody with more upside. Maybe the same guy will have a greater chance of falling on his face too, but this team needs to take a chance a guy who could be coming into his own as a top of the line starter. The roster is already lousy with #4s and potential #4s.

I think you may be asking the wrong question. It's not about who WMP could have brought in a trade. The question is: why are we trading a significant chip below peak value once again? Christ, have we learned nothing from Paul Wilson, Sean Casey, Danny Graves, Scott Williamson et al.?

I would have given Wily Mo a chance to build his value in a full time role. If his value isn't high enough to get a more talented pitcher, then why trade him now rather than later? Obviously, Krivsky doesn't believe WMP will increase his value.

Exactly. I've been screaming that all morning. What in the hell is the purpose of rushing this?

[Cedric]

I've been asking this question for 3 pages now, have yet to get a response.

I wouldn't have traded him now. Does that answer the question? I've said that twice before.

[RFS62]

I'd say PECOTA's got a solid baseline for Arroyo there. It's important to remember that last year was the first time he went above 200 IP. He hit the wall after the All-Star break and had to fight through it. I expect he'll come back wiser, stronger and better prepared for a 200 IP season this year.

Arroyo has real good movement on his pitches and pretty sharp control when he's on, so I'm reasonably confident his K rate will rise in 2006. All things considered, he should be a solid pitcher. Heading into the season with Harang, Arroyo and Claussen is the best Reds have been for a front three in the rotation since 1999, though each guy probably has a #3 pitcher ceiling (200+ IP, ERA in the high 3.00s). Harang might be able to deliver those innings with a sub-3.50 ERA, but that would be more of a one-shot deal than a consistent run.

I expect Pena will be a pretty big bat for the Red Sox in the coming years. I'll stick by my Ron Gant comparison.

Ideally you wouldn't want to trade a young Ron Gant for a Dave Burba type, but the Reds need to practice some Realpolitik. I'll resurrect something princeton said a long time ago about the JimBo Reds, they should be willing to lose a trade to get what they need. It seems to me they just did that. Pena probably will be the better talent out of this trade. But can he pitch? No. Arroyo can.

Also, Pena shouldn't be the last OF the Reds trade this year for pitching. Kearns and Jr. should be on the block for the right price. There's a lot of work left to do. The good news is it this move indicates Krivsky's up for doing it. The Reds need to be remade and 200 IP of a guy who should be at least an average pitcher isn't a bad start.



Well said. Exactly how I feel, although I'm not sure Pena will ever be Ron Gant. He could be more, but I've never been sold on it.

[Cedric]

Just wondering out loud, but I'm guessing this means Hatteberg and Aurilia are handling the 1B chores with Dunn heading back to LF.

Mind you, I'd much rather leave Dunn at 1B, shift Jr. to LF and install Denorfia in CF. Unfortunately I can't imagine that's got a chance in hell.

I wouldn't have a problem at all with that. Just you and I know that wouldn't happen.

[traderumor]

One thing is for sure, I'm pretty sure Marty's day has been made :D

[Hoosier Red]

So for all that don't like this, tell me which is better...

One year of WMP, even if he hits 35-40 Homers and skips off into arbitration where he wins a number the Reds can't and shouldn't match,

or

Three years of league average pitching from Arroyo at a guaranteed cost, improved defense for the short term, and the money to chase a real pitcher next fall.
So next spring's rotation looks like: Top pitcher, Harang, Claussen, Arroyo,(Milton until September,)

This trade improves the team in the short run, and in the long run, why is it bad now?

[SirFelixCat]

All you guys who don't like the deal, who do you think Wily Mo could have brought in a trade?

It's not necessarily the trade that really irks me. It's 500 PA's for Hatteberg that does. Uncle already. Was Womack not enough?

[Chip R]

Dunn going to LF and Hatteberg is 1b is an AWFUL, AWFUL decision. Krivsky and Narron have truly transformed this into a solid 6th place team and possibly even worse than the Marlins.
If that happens it's obvious they want better defense out there. Dunn may or may not be better at 1st than Hatteberg but he's better than WMP in LF. It's a fly ball staff. They need people who can catch those fly balls. Sounds like they are pretty desperate for pitching. If Milton is not going to be any better - regardless of what Mercker thinks - and Wilson isn't coming back anytime soon, it's a pretty sad outlook for the pitching staff.

I also think this is backlash for WMP playing in the WBC instead of trying to improve his skills in Spring Training. Of course that'll teach WMP since he most likely is going to a team that is going to be in the hunt for a division title and perhaps a world title. This also gives the Sox insurance if Manny has an "episode" and retires or is "injured" or they actually trade him. Good deal for the Sox, jury's out for the Reds.

[REDREAD]

I like the deal. We're trading 3 years of Pena (he'd be elig for FA then) for 3 years of Arroyo at a fixed cost.

I really like Arroyo replacing Geranomo in the rotation. It helps us avoid a lot of potential bleeding in that slot in the rotation and will make the Reds a lot more pleasant to watch over the next 3 years.

Krivisty inherited a mess, DanO's stalling about trading the excess OFs has now bit us in the rear. Both Kearns and Pena are not worth a lot less than they were.

I'd really like this deal if Freel became a fulltime starter in the OF. That still has a chance of happening eventually, even though it appears Hattenberg will get first shot of being a starter. I agree with the minority here that Freel isn't well suited to the infield. Letting him start in LF or CF (cleared by this move) is much better.

Yes, Arroyo isn't an ace, but we made a good step towards repairing this awful staff. I really doubt Pena would be able to fetch another starting pitcher that was better AND locked up for 3 years. Remember, we have to look longterm.

[flyer85]

Mind you, I'd much rather leave Dunn at 1B, shift Jr. to LF and install Denorfia in CF. Unfortunately I can't imagine that's got a chance in hell.the only average defensive players the Reds will have out there will be EE and AK. Every one else is way below average.

1b Hatteberg -14 in 2004(last full season at the position)
2b WOmack -14 in 2004(last full season at the position)
SS Lopez -11 in 2005
LF Dunn -10
CF Jr -18

Amazing

[registerthis]

I wouldn't have traded him now. Does that answer the question? I've said that twice before.

No, because the question wasn't whether or not you'd deal Pena, it was what you feel Pena is worth. You don't believe a pitcher of Arroyo's caliber is on par with Pena, so I simply asked what you believe a reasonable return would be. It doesn't have to be a deal that could logistically happen tomorrow, I'm just trying to guage where you place the value of a player like Pena.

[Hoosier Red]

If people are convinced this only brings the team from 90 losses to 85 losses,
why do people care whether Hatteberg and Womack are starting? They'll only be here for a year, and if they excell they'll be shipped off for better spare parts.

[Cedric]

If people are convinced this only brings the team from 90 losses to 85 losses,
why do people care whether Hatteberg and Womack are starting? They'll only be here for a year, and if they excell they'll be shipped off for better spare parts.

I care because I want Denoforia and Encarnacion getting better.

[M2]

hen what happened to his K rate last season? You don't see such a dramatic dropoff in K's unless something is horribly wrong.

Mainly he got tired from pitching more than he ever has before. Arroyo gets Ks off of movement and control. Like I said, now that he's climbed the wall once he'll be better prepared for it in 2006 and I fully expect his K rate to rise. It probably won't get back to his 2004 level of 7.15, but it won't be down around the 4.38 from last year. I'd expect something closer to 6.00 and Arroyo can be plenty effective in that range.

[flyer85]

Narron is full of crap.

Hatteberg is awful with the glove and this move does nothing to improve the defense.

[Crash Davis]

I'll resurrect something princeton said a long time ago about the JimBo Reds, they should be willing to lose a trade to get what they need. It seems to me they just did that.

Point taken, but this team isn't JimBo's Reds. Couldn't you also say that their roster is so lousy that losing one trade to get what they need won't bring them any closer to condending?

They need to keep winning smaller trades until they finally land a big one. I just don't think this current version of the Reds is in a great position to lose a trade involving one of their most talented players.

Ya think Brewers fans feel bad right now that Melvin didn't come in and feel the need to lose a trade to get what they needed?

[Cedric]

No, because the question wasn't whether or not you'd deal Pena, it was what you feel Pena is worth. You don't believe a pitcher of Arroyo's caliber is on par with Pena, so I simply asked what you believe a reasonable return would be. It doesn't have to be a deal that could logistically happen tomorrow, I'm just trying to guage where you place the value of a player like Pena.

I never said that Arroyo wasn't on par with Pena at Pena's present value. The point is why not give Pena a chance to increase his value? Who Pena could get now is irrelevant to me.

[traderumor]

I gotta think Krivsky simply couldn't see Germano or Gosling as viable options.

[indy_dave00]

To me unless you get a long term return for Wily Mo you don't trade a 24 year old slugger for a journeyman.

The Pirates have a lot of good young arms ( I watched them here in Indy) hell I think I'd have liked Ian Snell at this point better than Arroyo , plus the Pirates could have thrown in a propect.

The Reds are going nowhere this season how does Arroyo help in the future???? You don't trade a potential like Pena for a journeyman that like putting a band aid on a 7"long gash , Arroyo if he has a good year can demand a trade.

At this point looks like Pena was given away for a 1 year rental - doesn't excite me in the least.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

[flyer85]

If people are convinced this only brings the team from 90 losses to 85 losses, why do people care whether Hatteberg and Womack are starting? then why play guys who are 36+ and won't be around next year?

[registerthis]

I care because I want Denoforia and Encarnacion getting better.

I'd be shocked if Aurilia gets more playing time than Encarnacion at this point, considering how EdE has torn the cover off the ball this spring. At best, Aurilia will split time with Womack and Hatteberg at 2B and 1B, respectively, and fill in at third on the Reds Sunday Special.

With Denorfia, the situation is much murkier. I'd be equally shocked if he got significant playing time, but you never know.

[Red Leader]

I've been asking this question for 3 pages now, have yet to get a response.

How about a package of Jerome Williams and Mark Pawelek from the Cubs, who were said to have interest. Williams probably isn't any better than Arroyo, might be worse, but he'll bridge the gap until we get this roster of crap sorted out, just as well, and Pawelek is a nice prospect who can bring it at 94-96 with plus secondary pitches.

[traderumor]

I never said that Arroyo wasn't on par with Pena at Pena's present value. The point is why not give Pena a chance to increase his value? Who Pena could get now is irrelevant to me.WMP has increased his value the last two years. He went from a wart on the end of the bench that we likely couldn't get a AA pitching prospect for to a ballplayer that landed an average starter with some moderate major league success. That is a vast improvement.

[M2]

I wouldn't have a problem at all with that. Just you and I know that wouldn't happen.

Not in the first half of the year. If Denorfia goes down to AAA and plays well while Krivsky gets his eyeballs full of Jr. mangling CF that will be the trigger for the change. I'd love to see the club make the move immediately, but I'm reasonably confident it will get there before the summer ends.

[Hoosier Red]

Womack playing 2b doesn't have anything to do with Encarnacion.
That would be Aurillia playing 3b. I don't think Encarnacion has anything to worry about for the time being.

[registerthis]

To me unless you get a long term return for Wily Mo you don't trade a 24 year old slugger for a journeyman.

he was a 24 year old slugger with no plate discipline who couldn't play defense, and whose knack for hitting HRs was going to drive his salary skywards. I'd much rather have Arroyo here than have Pena Pena for $7-$8 mil.


At this point looks like Pena was given away for a 1 year rental - doesn't excite me in the least.

Arroyo is signed for 3 more years at a respectable salary. I'd venture to say that he'll have a more positive effect on this team than another year of WMP would have, and his long term cost will be lower than WMP--not to mention the fact that Pena can't pitch, and Arroyo can...rather well, as it turns out.

[M2]

I believe Arroyo's contract takes him through what would have been his arbitration years, which means he can't seek free agency after one year with the Reds.

[Far East]

I wonder if Pena's being at the World Baseball Classic and not being in the Sarasota camp had anything to do with his being the one traded?

Narron was geting sufficient offense (and hustle/drive?) even without Pena in the ST liineup.

Putting Dunn back in LF improves the OF defense with a possiblity of a 2B platoon of Freel/Womack and a 1B platoon of Aurilia/Hatteberg/Valentin.

Is Hatteberg also the emergency-3rd catcher? If so, Javier may get more PT at 1B than he would with only 2 catchers on the roster.

For what it's worth, Arroyo's ST ERA is a splendid 10.03 in 11.2 innings.

[OldXOhio]

For what it's worth, Arroyo's ST ERA is a splendid 10.03 in 11.2 innings.

Worth almost next to nothing. Pay more attention to his last few outings of the spring rather than his first ones.

[Red Leader]

Another idea. Take your lumps with what you have in the rotation this year, and trade WMP to Cleveland for Guillermo Mota (a closer for this year's Reds..who could be moved at the deadline for other prospects) and prospect Fausto Carmona. The Indians were said to be interested as well.

[registerthis]

I never said that Arroyo wasn't on par with Pena at Pena's present value. The point is why not give Pena a chance to increase his value? Who Pena could get now is irrelevant to me.

Perhaps it was "I find it VERY hard to believe that Bronson frickin Arroyo is the best you could get for Pena" that led me to believe that you were comparing the current value of the two players. If you were shocked that WMP today could only net the Reds Arroyo, I merely asked what you believed would have been a fair return.

I think that Pena is being consistently overvalued--and has been for a couple of years. Comparing the two, I think this trade makes sense for the Reds. It's certainly not the doomsday event some here are claiming it to be.

[Johnny Footstool]

Mainly he got tired from pitching more than he ever has before. Arroyo gets Ks off of movement and control. Like I said, now that he's climbed the wall once he'll be better prepared for it in 2006 and I fully expect his K rate to rise. It probably won't get back to his 2004 level of 7.15, but it won't be down around the 4.38 from last year. I'd expect something closer to 6.00 and Arroyo can be plenty effective in that range.

He must have been pretty tired in April, then.

Looks like he warmed up *a little* in May and June, then went to sleep in July and never really woke up.



Month IP K
April 32.2 15
May 30.1 20
June 32.0 23
July 42.1 12
Aug. 30.0 15
Sept. 38.0 15


His K rates were already weak at the beginning of the year, and he only approached a K/9 rate of 6.0 for two months out of the whole season. Not good.

[REDREAD]

To me unless you get a long term return for Wily Mo you don't trade a 24 year old slugger for a journeyman.
.

Hi Dave,

I agree with you in principle, but we have to remember that the Reds only had control of Pena for 3 more years anyhow (same as the length on Arroyo's contract).

Also, if Pena had a monster year, they might be forced to trade him.
I think Arroyo is more of a "long term" guy than Pena for that reason (Arroyo has cost certainty).

Arroyo fills a huge need. The upgrade from Germano/Gosling to Arroyo is significant. I'm not sure that the downgrade from Pena to Hattenberg/Freel/whoever is going to even be noticed.

Also, let's keep in mind that Pena might make no significant progress this year or next. The fact that he's only 24 is a double edged sword. It means he still has potential, but it also means it might take him a few more years to reach that potential.

Now, I can see how some posters made the arguement that we have lost in terms of total talent, but this a trade that needed to be done.

[Heath]

The guy nobody mentions is smith288 who is going to have to re-do the RedsZone.com "Away" board theme AGAIN.

But seriously, I'm ok with the deal. I have a feeling the Willy Mo's gonna get sticker shock when he sees the Green Monster and he's gonna have 200k's this summer. After he botches a few routine plays in the OF in a pennant race, Red Sox nation will blow their collective stacks. After that, Willy Mo's due for a DH career that might rival Steve Balboni's.

I figure Arroyo's a little better than the Gosling/Germano pair.

I'll be alright with this for a while -

[penantboundreds]

I like the trade for the point of it, pitching, pitching, pitching, but I would have preferred to send Wily Mo and Cash for a good AAA or AA pitcher who is said to come into his own and contribute to a major league club in the next 2 seasons. I think we need to think like this, Harang and Claussen will be in their prime in 2-3 years, Homer Bailey will be on the club and will be a very electrifying pitcher, and then if we would have traded for one more prospect that could (should) turn out to be a major league quality pitcher. Then in 2008 we could trade for one #3-4 pitcher and we would have a quality line-up. While saying this you have to think, if you can get something trade value for Griffey at the trade deadline this year, I think you do it.....we should be thinking 2-3 years from now. Reds fans have seen the club struggle long enough, we can do it for 2-3 more years so we can have a studly team come 2008. I know this was kind of a rumble of the tongue but I kept getting thoughts throughout.

[SirFelixCat]

Mainly he got tired from pitching more than he ever has before. Arroyo gets Ks off of movement and control. Like I said, now that he's climbed the wall once he'll be better prepared for it in 2006 and I fully expect his K rate to rise. It probably won't get back to his 2004 level of 7.15, but it won't be down around the 4.38 from last year. I'd expect something closer to 6.00 and Arroyo can be plenty effective in that range.

Ok, endulge me here then. What were Arroyo's K numbers, say, thru July last year?

[Crash Davis]

Also, if Pena had a monster year, they might be forced to trade him.
I think Arroyo is more of a "long term" guy than Pena for that reason (Arroyo has cost certainty).

It's so sad that recent Reds' ownership/management has made you feel this way about your baseball team. It's a warped mindset, and it doesn't have to be that way.

If Wily Mo has a "monster" year, you don't trade him because of his potential arbitration numbers. You use him as a building block.

You've been brainwashed by the cycle of irrelevance this organization has been going through.

[indy_dave00]

Oh well I guess perhaps we can be entertained by which hair do Bronson Arroyo will have each start . On of the only real things I've noticed watching him is he likes to change his hair style - maybe he'll use the beaded corn roll look on opening day.

Sorry I just can't help but think Matt Clement was a better option if the Bosox wanted Pena.

Hopefully you'll see me on here several times this summer eating crow when Bronson Arroyo is winning start after start , while Wily Mo is learning from Manny Ramirez and David Ortez on the Sox bench.

I think with Manny and Big Poppy there you may see Wily Mo blossom quickly.

[OnBaseMachine]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

Trade for Chris Young. The D-Backs are loaded with outfield prospects and would most likely part with him.

[Doc. Scott]

Well, if Pena's going to make the Reds look stupid, it likely won't be in 2006. Between Ortiz, Ramirez, and Nixon, Pena's going to have a hell of a time getting much playing time without an injury.

[Cedric]

So Narron has now came out and said Hatteberg is gonna play everday. This is sickening. Just watch how Womack get's used now with Freel being used in a main OF sub role.

Get ready for a GREAT season.

[Crash Davis]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

Trade for Chris Young. The D-Backs are loaded with outfield prospects and would most likely part with him.

I'd rather seem him target Ryan Shealy now. He could hit circles around Hee Seop Choi, and the Rockies say they're going to bury him in AAA again after the outfield experiment didn't take.

[Red Leader]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

Trade for Chris Young. The D-Backs are loaded with outfield prospects and would most likely part with him.

All excellent ideas.

Now that we've traded WMP for a SP to upgrade the pitching and forced Hatteberg into a full time role, we need to make another move to correct the one that just left us with Hatteberg as a full time player. Tony Womack already has a solution on hand, the Reds just refuse to use it.

[Crash Davis]

Well, if Pena's going to make the Reds look stupid, it likely won't be in 2006. Between Ortiz, Ramirez, and Nixon, Pena's going to have a hell of a time getting much playing time without an injury.

I bet it will be '06. He'll get ABs vs. all lefties by subbing for Nixon or Crisp. If half his ABs come against lefties, his percentage numbers are going to look very nice.

Which of the following is more likely to happen? Trot Nixon gets less than 400 at bats due to an injury and platoon issues. Or Wily Mo Pena gets at least 400 at bats through platoon, injury and offdays.

Hmmm. 50/50.

[Caveat Emperor]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

I think Choi would be a great pickup for the Reds and would certainly be able to do some damage in this ballpark.

The added benefit of going after a guy like him is that you can use his 81 home dates to pump his numbers up and then flip him again later to restock more prospects.

[M2]

Ok, endulge me here then. What were Arroyo's K numbers, say, thru July last year?

He was at 5.25 K/9 at the ASB last season. Hardly gangbusters, but largely due to the 109 IP he'd thrown up until that point. The guy had some learning to do in terms of pitching with fatigue. His AAA K rate, amassed over 460.2 IP, was 7.48. So I think a certain amount of rebound is to be expected.

It should be noted that his pre-ASB numbers in addition to that K/9 were a 4.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .712 OPS against. He doesn't need to whiff folks like Kerry Wood to be effective. With a better seasonal stamina he should be able to drag his K:BB back towards 3:1 (certainly north of 2.5:1). If he's in that range, the Reds will have themselves a solid pitcher.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'd rather seem him target Ryan Shealy now. He could hit circles around Hee Seop Choi, and the Rockies say they're going to bury him in AAA again after the outfield experiment didn't take.

Another excellent idea. Shealy could probably be had without having to give up a boatload. Shealy looks like a Travis Hafner-lite. I would forgive Krivsky for the Pena deal if he can acquire a Shealy, Pena, or Choi.

[gonelong]

I'll go on record as liking this deal. Pena might grow up to be a monster, but by the time he does, you'll have to pay heftily for it anyway. If you are the Reds you need contracts that allow the guys to at least earn their money if not be a relative bargain.

I think BA will earn his $$, and quite possibly perform well enough for us to consider his contract a bargain. While he is being inserted as the #2 guy in the rotation right now, hopefully he will be the #4 guy next year as Claussen steps his game up a a bit and the Reds go out and get another guy.

2007
#1 Pickup
#2 AH
#3 BC
#4 BA
#5 Dave Williams/Matt Belisle/Homer Bailey/etc.

To me this move was made with an eye on 2007/2008, and IMO, that is where the Reds need to be looking.

GL

/of course, this deal doesn't work for the Reds unless it is part of a larger plan. On its own, the deal isn't all that exciting.

[johngalt]

Something had to give, and it did here.

Will Bronson Arroyo become a very good pitcher for us? I don't know.

Will Wily Mo Pena become a superstar in Boston? I don't know.

Does this improve our rotation and, in turn, our bullpen? Yes.

Does improving the pitching staff improve our chances to win? Yes.

[M2]

In the long run, finding a 1B shouldn't be a major ordeal (in fact, he might be named Adam Dunn). These are transitional times and change doesn't always come in a tidy package. Anyway, the good news is 1B is the easiest hole to plug.

[Kc61]

If this had to be done, then I would hope that it opens a regular spot for Freel. Doesn't seem like it since Narron says (in article on Reds website) that Hatteberg now moves in at first and Dunn back to left field.

At this stage of his career, can/should Hatteberg be a regular first baseman?

[Cedric]

Should? Hell no. Should Tony Womack even be on the roster though? The more things change with the Reds the more they stay the same.

[lollipopcurve]

In the long run, finding a 1B shouldn't be a major ordeal (in fact, he might be named Adam Dunn). These are transitional times and change doesn't always come in a tidy package. Anyway, the good news is 1B is the easiest hole to plug

Yep. They may even find the answer very inexpensively in-house with Votto in a year or two.

[Aronchis]

This may just be one moves of many. I don't think Krivsky had much love for Pena, nor thought he will be a superstar. In otherwords the guy got rid of the dude before he had no trade value at all. Unlike Kearns who they still believe can garner some better offers by improved production.

So we got a serviceable starter for a bad defensive, overrated bat. That is the Krivsky view. Of course the Pro-Pena people are going to cry over it. They believe the guy either had 1)more value than Arroyo2)or was a future superstar.

Evaluations..................

[westofyou]

I have a hard time loving guys who have trouble fielding any OF position, K every 3 ab's walk every 17 and have never hit above .280 at any level.

[westofyou]

Tony Womack = Terry Pendelton in 1997.

He'll cut his own throat before he cuts the Reds throats.

[oneupper]

I don't know what to think about this. Over a year ago, when the Kearns or Peña debate was at the apex...I was all for trading WMP and keeping AK.
After watching them in 2005...my feelings changed.

WMP's winter ball numbers gave him enough value to be traded for something, I guess. There was some expectation to if he had, in effect, become more plate disciplined. Now the Red Sox will find out (although this move looks like Manny replacement therapy).

BA? The guy was DFA'd by the Pirates before the Sox took him. Who knows?

I hope I'm wrong, but AK will give us a lot of opposite field singles, to make Narron happy, but not much to please the Redzoners.

So, I'm neutral on the deal. What I DO like is that Krivsky is showing that he is willing to make some moves and will try to get what he can to balance the club. I'd expect to see a LOT more player rotation than we have seen in the past. So don't get too enamoured with your 2006 Cincinnati Reds...they may not be around for long.

[Roy Tucker]

I think the $$$ and MLB-readiness of Arroyo came into play as well.

He is signed for a relatively cheap contract that fits with the Reds' fiscal miserliness. And, he can pitch *now* at the MLB level. The Reds don't have to wait for him to mature through the minors.

[Tommyjohn25]

I will also say I like the move. The current formula wasn't working and this changes that formula. I will wait and see how the trade shakes out to start calling for BA or Krivskys head, as I am almost positive that this move is a building block for much bigger and better things, Krivsky is no idiot...and BA is not great, but he's also no slouch. Will this move lead us to the promised land? No. But neither was Wily Mo, and outfielders are much easier to come by than a SP.

[Candy Cummings]

Something had to give, and it did here.

Will Bronson Arroyo become a very good pitcher for us? I don't know.

Will Wily Mo Pena become a superstar in Boston? I don't know.

Does this improve our rotation and, in turn, our bullpen? Yes.

Does improving the pitching staff improve our chances to win? Yes.

I think this is the only possible conclusion at this point. Even average pitching is an improvement for us. Teams just aren't going to trade #1 starters--probably for anyone and definitely not for WMP.

[SteelSD]

I'd rather seem him target Ryan Shealy now. He could hit circles around Hee Seop Choi, and the Rockies say they're going to bury him in AAA again after the outfield experiment didn't take.

Bingo, although the Rockies might still be looking to swap Helton. Grabbing Shealy would be great.

Package Denorfia and a PTBNL and have at it 'cause Lord knows if Denorfia isn't going to play now there's no reason to keep him around.

But there's the problem. Because the Reds didn't acquire a high-level arm now they need to use resources to backfill the 1B position. Sigh.

[Matt700wlw]

The Reds wanted to make a point and they did it. Yippee! Another fourth starter at best. I really can't handle this organization much longer.

And you expected to get what for Wily Mo?

They could have traded Dunn, POSSIBLY for a top-of-the-line starter (I don't know what kind of Market value an Adam Dunn has), but then people would complain that they traded Dunn.

This improves the team....Wily Mo out of the outfield improves them defensively right there. Wily Mo could emerge as a supestar, but this is chance that the Reds had to take to make THIS team better.

Krivsky has the drive to pull the trigger, something Dan O'Brien never did.

[M2]

I have a hard time loving guys who have trouble fielding any OF position, K every 3 ab's walk every 17 and have never hit above .280 at any level.

A lot of that revolves around him being moved up way ahead of his developmental curve. He'll mature into a better player.

Though I'm still fine with the trade.

[westofyou]

He'll mature into a better player.

Maybe, I thought that about Willie Greene too.

[M2]

Maybe, I thought that about Willie Greene too.

Good point. I'd say the important difference is that Willie didn't care and Wily Mo works his tail off.

[Caveat Emperor]

But there's the problem. Because the Reds didn't acquire a high-level arm now they need to use resources to backfill the 1B position. Sigh.

The main difference being that there's an exchange rate issue, though.

Restocking a first baseman takes a lot less capital than restocking a starting pitcher.

[ghettochild]

dunno if its been posted:

per rotoworld

After trading Wily Mo Pena, the Reds are plan to open the season with Scott Hatteberg at first base and Adam Dunn back in left field.
The 36-year-old Hatteberg shouldn't have been viewed as anything more than a pinch-hitter and an emergency stopgap. That the Reds actually might have both him and Tony Womack in the starting lineup on Opening Day is a farce. Hatteberg still won't have much value in NL-only leagues, though he does have to be considered at $2-$3 now. No indication was given, but Rich Aurilia should at least start over him against left-handers. Ryan Freel still benefits from the Pena trade, though not as much as he should. We also like Bronson Arroyo and the rest of the pitching staff less with the Reds so firmly committed to making sure they don't lead the league in runs scored for a second straight year. Mar. 20 - 2:09 pm et

[Falls City Beer]

I'd say PECOTA's got a solid baseline for Arroyo there. It's important to remember that last year was the first time he went above 200 IP. He hit the wall after the All-Star break and had to fight through it. I expect he'll come back wiser, stronger and better prepared for a 200 IP season this year.

Arroyo has real good movement on his pitches and pretty sharp control when he's on, so I'm reasonably confident his K rate will rise in 2006. All things considered, he should be a solid pitcher. Heading into the season with Harang, Arroyo and Claussen is the best Reds have been for a front three in the rotation since 1999, though each guy probably has a #3 pitcher ceiling (200+ IP, ERA in the high 3.00s). Harang might be able to deliver those innings with a sub-3.50 ERA, but that would be more of a one-shot deal than a consistent run.

I expect Pena will be a pretty big bat for the Red Sox in the coming years. I'll stick by my Ron Gant comparison.

Ideally you wouldn't want to trade a young Ron Gant for a Dave Burba type, but the Reds need to practice some Realpolitik. I'll resurrect something princeton said a long time ago about the JimBo Reds, they should be willing to lose a trade to get what they need. It seems to me they just did that. Pena probably will be the better talent out of this trade. But can he pitch? No. Arroyo can.

Also, Pena shouldn't be the last OF the Reds trade this year for pitching. Kearns and Jr. should be on the block for the right price. There's a lot of work left to do. The good news is it this move indicates Krivsky's up for doing it. The Reds need to be remade and 200 IP of a guy who should be at least an average pitcher isn't a bad start.

Very good post. This trade puts me squarely in the Krivsky's got balls camp. Hats off to the guy on this one.

[westofyou]

Good point. I'd say the important difference is that Willie didn't care and Wily Mo works his tail off.
So true, every horse has a carrot, some get to it and don't care for the taste, some just get a brief taste and make everyone think it's a given they'll be munching on it for the next ten years.

Pena has to learn to walk, field way better and connect with the ball a bit more.

That's a bunch of carrots.

[osuceltic]

I like that they traded offense for an established starting pitcher. The guy has started a lot of games the last two years for a team that won a lot of games. He's inconsistent, and I'm not sure why that is. Getting Arroyo out of Boston also might be a good thing for his career. He had become something of a rock star there and had developed a party-boy reputation. Maybe getting him in an environment where he's a little more grounded will help. We'll see.

My reservation comes strictly as a fan. I really liked Wily Mo. I just did. He had a contract that really hindered his development (his own fault), but he worked hard and turned himself into a big-league player. I like to think there's more development to be made there. I hope he does well in Boston. Seems like a good kid.

I'll say it one more time ... This wouldn't have been my approach. I would have gone for the big strike with Dunn. But if you take that option off the table, I think Krivsky did very well with this move.

As for Hatteberg ... I think he'll be an OK stopgap at first, sort of like Randa was at third last season. Every team needs guys like that.

[registerthis]

As for Hatteberg ... I think he'll be an OK stopgap at first, sort of like Randa was at third last season. Every team needs guys like that.

I'd tip over with glee if hatteberg put up Randa-esque numbers.

[RedsBaron]

The two most recent significant trades made by the Reds were to trade away Casey and Pena for pitchers many here are underwhelmed with, which in turn appears to indicate that:
1. O'Brien and Krivsky are both incompetent ( I agree with that evaluation as it applies to DanO); and/or
2. Posters here have vastly overrated the market for Casey and Pena ( I have to go for this one as well).

[KronoRed]

Ridiculous to trade Pena and then start Hatteberg, absolutely ridiculous, teams that love to lose do stuff like that.

Since 2nd is going to be Womacks, then put Freel in left, it's better for the entire team.

[KronoRed]

IMO it would have been better to hold Pena and see if he got better, Arroyo is just more of the same stuff we already have.

[Johnny Footstool]

He was at 5.25 K/9 at the ASB last season. Hardly gangbusters, but largely due to the 109 IP he'd thrown up until that point.

See my previous post. His K/9 in April was 4.13.

April 4.13
May 5.93
June 6.46
July 2.55
Aug. 4.5
Sept. 3.55

His K rate was mediocre prior to the ASB. After the ASB, it was bafflingly low. I'll buy that he was tired after the ASB, but he wasn't doing very well in terms of K/9 even at the start of the season.

HUGE red flag.


Very good post. This trade puts me squarely in the Krivsky's got balls camp. Hats off to the guy on this one.

Big balls and no brain is a bad combination.

[Red Leader]

Hey, at least we got a new "Thug Life" candidate.

[KronoRed]

Hey, at least we got a new "Thug Life" candidate.
Word to your mother homey.

[Chip R]

Hey, at least we got a new "Thug Life" candidate.

Blasphemer! No one can replace T-Hum.

[Red Leader]

Blasphemer! No one can replace T-Hum.

Oh, come on.


http://www.6mediagroup.com/other%20services/Chad%206med%20Gallery/images/Chad%20Perrone%20w.%20Bronson%20Arroyo%20075.jpg

[OnBaseMachine]

I don't want Freel, Hatteberg, and Womack all starting. Too many judy hitters.

Start Freel at 2B and trade for Shealy.

2B Ryan Freel
SS Felipe Lopez
CF Ken Griffey Jr.
LF Adam Dunn
RF Austin Kearns
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Ryan Shealy
C Jason LaRue

[SteelSD]

The main difference being that there's an exchange rate issue, though.

Restocking a first baseman takes a lot less capital than restocking a starting pitcher.

Pena + Ramon Ortiz would be value-equitable to Hatteberg + Arroyo. Not that I wanted him, but Ortiz was available for nothing but money.

As of this moment, the Reds have gained no Run value advantage and now have to find a viable 1B alternative so as not to lose Run Diff ground.

That's the kicker and it means that Arroyo was actually more expensive from a resource standpoint than just Wily Mo Pena. That's what happens when you don't win deals.

[Cyclone792]

Meah, this one gets a collective *yawn* from me.

We dealt an overrated hitter with overrated potential for an overrated pitcher.

[KronoRed]

I don't want Freel, Hatteberg, and Womack all starting. Too many judy hitters.

Judy hitters = Know how to play the game.

This is the lineup you'll see

2B Womack
SS Lopez
1B Hatteberg
CF JR
RF Kearns
LF Dunn
3B Aurilia
C LaRue

[Chip R]

Judy hitters = Know how to play the game.

This is the lineup you'll see

2B Womack
SS Lopez
1B Hatteberg
CF JR
RF Kearns
LF Dunn
3B Aurilia
C LaRue

Oh, that may be the opening day lineup but I'm guessing Narron's going to be rolling out a lot of lineups that will give us painful memories of the days of Bob Boone.

[dsmith421]

This is the lineup you'll see

2B Womack
SS Lopez
1B Hatteberg
CF JR
RF Kearns
LF Dunn
3B Aurilia
C LaRue

Well, I just threw up in my mouth. I can see Jerry "Baseball Guy" Narron starting that particular eight about, oh, 100 times this year too.

And God help that Lopez if he doesn't hit, because we can always shift Rich over to short and throw Frankie Menechino in at third--now there's a guy who knows how to play the game. And that Dunn, he strikes out too much. Quinton McCracken will give us a contact hitter and speed, there's our left field situation. Junior doesn't run fast enough for a CF, so we'll trade that overrated RF Kearns for Marquis Grissom, I figure we can always re-sign Tuffy Rhodes or Kenny Lofton to play right. Now there is a gritty team that can bunt, steal a base, manufacture a run, man they just know how to play the game the right way.

[RedsBaron]

Judy hitters = Know how to play the game.

This is the lineup you'll see

2B Womack
SS Lopez
1B Hatteberg
CF JR
RF Kearns
LF Dunn
3B Aurilia
C LaRue
If Narron uses that batting order he should be fired.

[M2]

See my previous post. His K/9 in April was 4.13.

April 4.13
May 5.93
June 6.46
July 2.55
Aug. 4.5
Sept. 3.55

His K rate was mediocre prior to the ASB. After the ASB, it was bafflingly low. I'll buy that he was tired after the ASB, but he wasn't doing very well in terms of K/9 even at the start of the season.

HUGE red flag.

I really don't think it is. He'd thrown a good number of innings in the 2nd half of 2004, it took him until May to bounce back to his prime form, but an even larger inning load caught up to him and his overall numbers were. It's hardly surprising that a movement/control pitcher like Arroyo (and what separates him from lesser pitchers in the category is that his movement is excellent) would see his K totals drop when dealing with a new level of fatigue. What he delivered in May and June is probably representative of what you can expect moving forward. He established a solid K rate in AAA over the course of multiple years and I think those concerned that his 2005 K rate will be what defines him moving forward are worrying themselves over a fluke.

Arroyo isn't going to pitch 200 major league innings for the first time in his career ever again. He's now done it. He's actually at a real good spot in terms of his career. He's been effective against MLB hitters and he's topped the 200 IP plateau. That's the point where you'd expect a pitcher to put together his best seasons. I'm not saying I expect Arroyo's best to be wonderful, but it should be solid.

[Ravenlord]

if Arroyo is concealing something and doesn't return to his pre-2005 form, my estimate of the Reds allowing 1,000 looks pretty "good."

[StillFunkyB]

I'm not to happy about this.

I'm going to reserve judgement to see what happens, but on the surface I'm kinda ticked at this move.

[KronoRed]

If Narron uses that batting order he should be fired.
I'd agree but our new GM LOVES "old school" Narron.

[Cyclone792]

Eh, I guess I'll quit yawning over this deal and give my take ;)

IMO, this all depends what K/9 ratio Arroyo gives us. If he gives us that 7+ mark he put up in 2004, then I like the trade. If he gives us a sub 5 mark that he put up in 2005, then I'm not a fan of the trade.

This is where just having excellent scouts working alongside numbers folks come into play ... basically where having an outstanding front office comes into play. If I'm working for a team and I'm analyzing Arroyo, I want to know whether 2004 is the norm or if 2005 is the norm (or vice versa, if 2004 was a fluke or not).

Arroyo's got good control, has shown that he can keep the ball in the yard fairly well and has pitched well on the road while with the Sawks. The magic number is just that K/9 mark because he's been BABIP lucky while with Boston.

Our defense is so bad that if he gives us a 4-5 K/9 mark, I think he'll get torched here with our gloves behind him. If he gives us that 7+ mark he put up in 2004, then I think he can pitch like Harang. The problem is I don't know which one is more likely than the other; we can only hope Krivsky knows.

All I do know is I've never been a fan of Wily Mo Pena. I thought the Reds should have been playing him every day just so he could put up that magic mark of 35+ bombs over a full season and put the team in position to seriously rape another team when dealing him. In fact, when Casey was dealt this offseason my hope was that the Reds would play Pena every day this season to increase his trade value so we could get rid of him and net a solid return.

At best, I think Pena's upside is Alfonso Soriano, and I HATE Alfonso Soriano. Pena's an absolute out mosheen, and with his OBP empty power, teams will shoot themselves in the foot batting him in the middle of the lineup. The Sawks are smart; when they start Pena they'll bury him at the end of the lineup. The Reds, on the other hand, would have been prone to putting him in a spot where he cripples big inning potential created by our better hitters.

I guess in the end, I'm glad Pena's gone. I'm not yet convinced if the timing and return we got is about as good as he could fetch us, but I am glad he's gone. In the end, Arroyo's K/9 number will answer the question of the timing/return of the deal.

[TRF]

Well count me in the negative camp. Not because Arroyo was the return, but because that return lacked another arm. A decent arm from High A or AA would have done it for me. The Reds needed cash for a 3.5 mil contract? ridiculous. Orroyo is ok, and could go Harang at the same time Claussen should. And if Harang also takes a logical step forwar, or even if he is only marginally better, the front 3 looks decent.

But Orroyo isn't enough. The Reds knew it and settled for 1.5 mil. they should have started with Papelbon (sp?), moved to Lester with their eyes firmly targeting a pitcher at High A or AA. This move MAY improve the rotation, but the problem is bigger than this year's rotation.

Gardner and Pauley both with shoulder injuries. No clear stud pitching prospect even sniffing the majors. Homer Bailey isn't a stud until he dominates a league. The backups for the rotation are Belisle, Basham, Koz, Lizard, Germano, Gosling. Intimidating ain't it.

Add to this the Reds lose offense by making Hatteberg the starter at 1B. more blech.

I'm ok with Orroyo, but the return was not enough by half.

[M2]

Ridiculous to trade Pena and then start Hatteberg, absolutely ridiculous, teams that love to lose do stuff like that.

For me that's a non-issue. The Reds can do anything stupid they wish with the lineup for next two or three months. The bigger issue is that the club might have three average or better starting pitchers in town for the next three years to assemble a team around. Suddenly there might be enough pitching oxygen in the Reds atmosphere to sustain a living team. Will that happen in 2006? Probably not. No one said massive change would be quick or easy.

The bright side for those bemoaning the temporary appearance of Hatteberg and Womack is that neither will last long if he's awful. I'd like the Reds not to have learn the hard way on these seemingly fundamental lineup issues too, but far more important to me today is that when I tick off the number of Reds pitchers who should be of use on a major league ballclub I now have to use one more finger.

[MWM]

Put with those who aren't a big fan of the trade, but don't hate it. It's not that I think they could have done "better" but different. I think as far as established major league pitchers, Arroyo was probably the best you were going to get. But as others have said, I would have preferred a high minor leaguer with upside instead of a 29 innings eater who's likely seen his best days already. But I think it will help the team this year and maybe next, assuming Arroyo doesn't self destruct.

I have a hard time opining on any trade of WMP as it is because he's such an enigma to me. For those people who have the ability to watch a guy like WMP and reasonably predict how he's going to turn out. I'm not one of those guys. I honestly have no clue whether or not wily mo will turn into a monster or out of the league. But I don't agree with the Ron Gant comp. I really believe WMP is going to be feast or famine. He's either going Sammy Sosa or Willie Greene. I don't think there's a middle ground with him.

[TRF]

I agree that the suckitude of Womack and Hatteberg in the everyday lineup will eventually lead to them being replaced. It's not a non issue, but more a temporary one.

Not getting two arms for a 23 year old POWER HITTER coming of a hot winter campaign, when said POWER HITTER is going to a perk that will favor said power is an issue.

I don't make any great claim to know who the Reds should have targeted, but pile 'O cash shouldn't have been on the list.

[Aronchis]

Well count me in the negative camp. Not because Arroyo was the return, but because that return lacked another arm. A decent arm from High A or AA would have done it for me. The Reds needed cash for a 3.5 mil contract? ridiculous. Orroyo is ok, and could go Harang at the same time Claussen should. And if Harang also takes a logical step forwar, or even if he is only marginally better, the front 3 looks decent.

But Orroyo isn't enough. The Reds knew it and settled for 1.5 mil. they should have started with Papelbon (sp?), moved to Lester with their eyes firmly targeting a pitcher at High A or AA. This move MAY improve the rotation, but the problem is bigger than this year's rotation.

Gardner and Pauley both with shoulder injuries. No clear stud pitching prospect even sniffing the majors. Homer Bailey isn't a stud until he dominates a league. The backups for the rotation are Belisle, Basham, Koz, Lizard, Germano, Gosling. Intimidating ain't it.

Add to this the Reds lose offense by making Hatteberg the starter at 1B. more blech.

I'm ok with Orroyo, but the return was not enough by half.

That 1.5 had nothing to do about "settling", but everything to do why this trade was completed. Any prospect thrown in, would have been thrown in.

[RedsManRick]

What this deal really seems to do for Boston is give them a platoon bat vs. lefties for Nixon and a potential LF in case Manny goes off the deep end. Bat him 6th behind Varitek and he could drive in 110 runs hitting .240 with 40 bombs over 600 AB. Pena also doesn't cost them an arm and a leg. And they get it for somebody they were gonna use as a middle reliever. Unless Arroyo goes off and has an all-star season, I can't see how the Sox lose this one.

[lollipopcurve]

Arroyo has been far better against righties than against lefties. In the NL Central, I think that's going to be a significant plus. How it plays in GAB, I don't know.

[M2]

Unless Arroyo goes off and has an all-star season, I can't see how the Sox lose this one.

I actually think this deal could be win-win. Pena could club the ball for the Sox and Arroyo could give the Reds three solid years on the mound. I imagine both franchises would be happy with that kind of return.

[registerthis]

The bigger issue is that the club might have three average or better starting pitchers in town for the next three years to assemble a team around.

I think that's the key. Arroyo is superior to chumps like Ortiz, Wilson, and the various assortment of bargain bin arms the reds have run out there in recent years. Harang-Claussen-Arroyo has a chance to be a decent--not great, but decent--1, 2, 3 for the Reds. That might be enough around which to build a competitive team. It's also an option that Pena did not give.

[M2]

Arroyo has been far better against righties than against lefties. In the NL Central, I think that's going to be a significant plus. How it plays in GAB, I don't know.

That's the thing that probably ought to worry folks about Arroyo instead of a K rate that should bounce back. Arroyo's fundamental weakness is that lefties tag him a bit. Keeping LHBs in line will be his biggest challenge in 2006 and beyond.

[registerthis]

That 1.5 had nothing to do about "settling", but everything to do why this trade was completed. Any prospect thrown in, would have been thrown in.

Indeed. I don't get all of this harumphing about the Reds not getting another arm. What makes anyone think the thrown-in arm would have been of any quality? This is Wily Mo we're talking about, not Dunn or even Junior. There was a limit to what he was going to get us. Perhaps the reds could have gotten an established big leaguer along with a minor leaguer with some upside, or they could have gone only for prospects and gotten 1-2 arms that may pay dividends down the road.

Most likely, Krivsky looked at the rotation that the Reds were looking to run out there in April, didn't like what he saw, and went looking for an established player who can step in, be effective and be dependable. Arroyo fit the bill, and he's signed to a reasonable contract for 3 years. Like M2 said, I think this trade could be win-win for both teams.

[StillFunkyB]

I actually think this deal could be win-win. Pena could club the ball for the Sox and Arroyo could give the Reds three solid years on the mound. I imagine both franchises would be happy with that kind of return.

I am leaning that way as well M2...I hope this works out for both teams.

[MWM]

Hey Steel, how you enjoying the first day of "Spring" up there? :evil:

[MWM]

I don't know, if Schilling and Beckett aren't able to to throw a lot of innings and Clement doesn't rebound, the Sox might be wishing they had Bronson back in the fold. They might be deep in starting pitchers, but between David Wells, Schilling, Clement, and Beckett, that's a lot of question marks.

[Cyclone792]

Gammons' comments from Insider:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter



The Reds had to trade for pitching, and they were not going to part with Austin Kearns or Adam Dunn unless they got a Jon Lester, or two. Bronson Arroyo, who threw a career-high 205 1/3 innings last season, posted 14 wins and was 10th in the American League in quality starts -- will be the Reds' best starter.

And while Wily Mo Pena is a .303 career on-base guy who sometimes plays out of control, he is still only 24, and about to begin learning the game with David Ortiz. Boston is not usually a tools-oriented organization, but one thing they lack through the minor leagues is right-handed power, and Pena is a project whose skills are worth the effort to hone.

Right-handed corner power bats are hard to find, and Pena has awesome power and remarkable speed. The Red Sox were looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and Pena can platoon with Trot Nixon; Pena had an .881 OPS against left-handed pitching last season (Mike Sweeney and Andruw Jones were .877, Manny Ramirez .885). He can fill in for Coco Crisp and Ramirez, when necessary.

The Red Sox hope this is a deal for today, giving them a boost against lefties and cutting down on the lefties coming out of the bullpen to face Nixon -- and for the future. Pena loves to play, wants to learn and because he was out of options and in the big leagues at 20, his development has been seriously retarded. Boston hopes it has another Jesse Barfield, who after the age of 23 and with almost an identical number of at-bats, had a .309 on-base percentage, the same exact .780 OPS and 45 homers, in contrast to Pena's 51.

Nixon can become a free agent at season's end, so if Pena develops, they have added a 26-year-old center fielder in Crisp and a 24-year-old power bat in right field in Pena.

The fact that former Reds GM and current Nationals GM Jim Bowden has spent more than 1,000 hours trying to reacquire Pena speaks for his character.

Pena's career OPS at Great American Ball Park is .875, .741 on the road. Arroyo's OPS against was .790 at Fenway, .665 on the road. However, going from one offensive park to another is difficult to quantify.

[M2]

I think that's the key. Arroyo is superior to chumps like Ortiz, Wilson, and the various assortment of bargain bin arms the reds have run out there in recent years. Harang-Claussen-Arroyo has a chance to be a decent--not great, but decent--1, 2, 3 for the Reds. That might be enough around which to build a competitive team. It's also an option that Pena did not give.

I liked the way gonelong framed it with a #1 to be named later (and not necessarily during the 2006 season) in front of those three. Three reliable starting pitchers would give the club something to build on.

BTW, for those loathing the trade, I fully recognize that it's no given the Reds have three reliable starting pitchers in the wake of this deal. Harang could be a one-hit wonder (though I don't think he will be). Claussen could pitch better and have the same basic ERA as last year. Arroyo could settle into 4.50-4.75 territory. And any of them could get injured. Yet in general I see three pitchers in their late 20s who've paid their dues and who should be entering the best years of their careers.

[Crash Davis]

Gammons: "There's a new Mo in Boston."

Nuggest from his blog:

- The Reds weren't trading Dunn or Kearns unless they got a Jon Lester or two.

- Arroyo was 10th in the AL in quality starts.

- Red Sox lacked right-handed power throughout their system and WMP is about to start learning the game from Big Papi.

- Pena had a .881 OPS against LHP last season. Sweeney & Andruw Jones were at .877 and Manny Ramirez at .885.

- "Pena loves to play, wants to learn and because he was out of options and in the big leagues at age 20, his development has been seriously retarded." Boston hopes it has another Jesse Barfield.

- Nixon can become a free agent after '06. They've added a 26 year old CF in Crisp and a 24 year old power bat in RF.

- Tee-hee: "The fact that former Reds GM and current Nationals GM Jim Bowden has spent more than 1,000 hours trying to reaquire Pena speaks for his character."

[KronoRed]

I agree that the suckitude of Womack and Hatteberg in the everyday lineup will eventually lead to them being replaced. It's not a non issue, but more a temporary one.

I see it differently, I see Narron being the type to run them out non stop no matter what the stats say because he's a baseball guy and he likes vets in the lineup above all else.

[NC Reds]

Wow, this is what happens when I work all day and not check Redszone. Shame on me.

As for the trade, it is the after-effects that concern me. I always thought Wily Mo (because of his atrocious defense) was better suited for the American League. I still do. I wish we could have gotten a better prospect for sure, but Arroyo is at a point in his career where some improvement should be expected.

What I can not stomach is the idea of playing Hatteburg everyday at first base. First base is a slot for big offensive productivity (see Adam Dunn). I would prefer to keep Dunn at first and put some speed (Denorfia preferably) in the outfield. Put Freel at 2nd and EE at 3rd and I am OK with the situation. Playing Womack primarily at 2nd, Hatteburg at first, wasting spot starts on RA while allowing youth and speed to languish outside of starting lineup will make me sick.

[M2]

I see it differently, I see Narron being the type to run them out non stop no matter what the stats say because he's a baseball guy and he likes vets in the lineup above all else.

Honestly, I don't think Narron's got that kind of leeway. Krivsky didn't pick Narron and I doubt he'll have a problem telling Narron to bench a disaster in favor of someone else should push come to shove.

[vaticanplum]

I'd rather have a hole at first base than a hole in the starting rotation. I mean, I'd prefer to have a full pie, but then again I am a Reds fan.

[KronoRed]

I'd rather have a hole at first base than a hole in the starting rotation. I mean, I'd prefer to have a full pie, but then again I am a Reds fan.
But see..we don't have to have a hole at 1st base, we can put Freel or Deno out in the OF and have Dunn at 1st (where he will end up anyway) and be much better off, starting Hatteberg over those other options just doesn't make any sense.

[KronoRed]

Honestly, I don't think Narron's got that kind of leeway. Krivsky didn't pick Narron and I doubt he'll have a problem telling Narron to bench a disaster in favor of someone else should push come to shove.
I dunno, Krivsky seems to be 100% behind him so far, the fact that on the day Pena was traded it was declared that Hatteberg is taking over at 1st just reeks.

[vaticanplum]

But see..we don't have to have a hole at 1st base, we can put Freel or Deno out in the OF and have Dunn at 1st (where he will end up anyway) and be much better off, starting Hatteberg over those other options just doesn't make any sense.

Oh yeah, I definitely agree with that. Whether it will happen is another question, but we'll see.

I saw Dunn play first at a game last year and it was a lot less comical than I expected it to be. I would much rather have him there than Hatteberg, obvs.

[flyer85]

As for Hatteberg ... I think he'll be an OK stopgap at first, ... Every team needs guys like that.let me rephrase, "every losing team needs guys like that", below replacement level he is.

[M2]

I dunno, Krivsky seems to be 100% behind him so far

He'll seem 100% behind Narron until he cans the guy, and rest assured he will can the guy at some point in the next year or two.

[Red Leader]

But see..we don't have to have a hole at 1st base, we can put Freel or Deno out in the OF and have Dunn at 1st (where he will end up anyway) and be much better off, starting Hatteberg over those other options just doesn't make any sense.


I heard Narron's using the Chewbacca defense.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/08/0330chewbacca.jpg

[KearnsyEars]

I don't like it. Now if he posts under 4 ERA, its good. I was shocked to read B Arroyo is already 29 going on 30 years old! I don't think that is exactly adding an arm for the future. I think its like trading for a Right Handed Eric Milton. But who knows, I'm just a fan. At least we kept Kearns and Dunn and I think it puts to rest some of the rumors about them leaving. I think its good for the long term because Dunn likes the outfield alot better and now he can play Left Field every day for the rest of his career (HERE!)

The jurys out on this one, esp if Wily goes on to hit 300 or 400 HR in the AL. Might be a great DH.

[reds44]

Good trade.

Improves pitching, and defense. WMP K's and massive strikeout won't be missed that much.

[Cyclone792]

That's the thing that probably ought to worry folks about Arroyo instead of a K rate that should bounce back. Arroyo's fundamental weakness is that lefties tag him a bit. Keeping LHBs in line will be his biggest challenge in 2006 and beyond.

I really hope you're 100 percent correct on the K rate being able to bounce back. If his K rate bounces back, I'm firmly supportive of the deal.

Interesting you mention how he gets tagged by lefties; his K splits are amazing and it's interesting to compare 2004 to 2005 side-by-side:



PA/K OPS Against

2004 LHB 7.65 .768
2005 LHB 10.20 .831

2004 RHB 4.01 .660
2005 RHB 7.36 .657

Give me that .768 OPS against vs. lefties that he had in 2004 and I can tolerate it, but that .831 mark last season is fugly. If you're right about the K rate bouncing back - which I hope you are as it makes or breaks the deal for me - then I'm hoping he can also give us that OPS against vs. lefties that he put up in 2004 vs. the mark he threw up in 2005.

[KearnsyEars]

So what do you guys think? What does it say about Kearns/Dunn future here?

[TRF]

The Reds absolutely could have gotten another. Want a reason why I think so? how about 1.5 million reasons?

Two teams with surplusses: Reds with OF's, Red Sox with pitching. So who has the upper hand?

Easy. The Reds do. Here is why. The Sox are perennially battling to win the AL east. They have the horses on the mound. In fact they added a stud from Florida. So they have the arms to spare, but lost some offense. The Reds aren't going to compete this year even if they add Roger Clemens. The rotation AND bullpen have too many holes and question marks. Because of that, trading WMP right now isn't necessary. They can do so at the break, and likely get a better return. Not from a contender, but from maybe a bubble team looking to get a little oomph in the offense, or even a bottom dweller like TB (Kazmir anyone?) See, the Reds didn't have to make a move, but the Sox are devoid of power in their system. And Trot Nixon is getting a mite long in the tooth. RF will be an adventure for WMP, but he'll make up for that by turning the Green Monster into something resembling artillery fire target practice. The wall may actually show bruising.

1.5 mil sounds about what you would pay a 1st round pick around the 20th pick. I could be wrong on that though, but it sounds pretty close. Most teams I think would expect any player worth 1.5 mil to be a top prospect. It's why you pay 1.5 mil in the first place. So why get cash and not an arm?

[Reds1]

I believe Mo Pena brought a lot of balance to the lineup. Pitchers at least have to respect his ability to put one "out" at any time. I just do not think that they can replace that with anyone on the roster or anyone in the system.

This team had better figure out that the young talent that virtually comes up through the sytsem, is the talent that you want to keep around. How many teams out there trade this type of player? Eventually this trade will come down to what we get out of Arroyo, chances are after a season or a season and a half at the GAB it will be considerably less than a Mo Pena.

I actually am on the other side of this one. I was so worried having Dunn, Griffey, Kearns, wily Mo, EE, LaRue, etc. from a stand point of going through long slumps and new records in SO. Not that the replacement is what I want to settle for, but I really don't know him that well. I think also Dunn expressed he really didn't want to start and I think organization is fed up with Wily Mo. Doesn't go to AFL couple years back and gets what 4-5 AB in the WBC. He needed to be on the team and get some reps. Raw talent is one thing, but this trade is good IMO. We need pitching so bad and if someone had to go of our OF this is the guy. If we can get an Ace pitcher now that would help fill in all the gaps better at the pitching spots - Well, except closer.

I did noticed he did pitch over 200 innings last year and his contract is very Reds friendly. I know not many agree with me, but I love the deal - well, I like it :).

[Red Leader]

.So why get cash and not an arm?

Probably two-fold. I'm guessing that Krivsky was getting a little anxious right about now, with Pena coming back to the club, and with the season fast approaching..couple that with Gosling not proving to be "dominant", Wilson's health, Milton's health, and Harang's scare.

The second part is that Boston probably wasn't willing to give up a prospect the Reds wanted in return. Since Krivsky was anxious to make a deal right now, he settled for cash instead of arguing for a prospect and potentially killing the deal.

The kicker is that the original article mentioned that other teams were interested. Wonder what they were offering....

[TRF]

Probably two-fold. I'm guessing that Krivsky was getting a little anxious right about now, with Pena coming back to the club, and with the season fast approaching..couple that with Gosling not proving to be "dominant", Wilson's health, Milton's health, and Harang's scare.

The second part is that Boston probably wasn't willing to give up a prospect the Reds wanted in return. Since Krivsky was anxious to make a deal right now, he settled for cash instead of arguing for a prospect and potentially killing the deal.

The kicker is that the original article mentioned that other teams were interested. Wonder what they were offering....

Then that's the sign that he's a bad salesman, or an even worse judge of talent and situations. The Reds are not going to win the division or the WC with either WMP or Arroyo alone. Is there another RH bat like WMP's (young, deveveloping) on the market right now? No.

The Reds had the leverage. Krivsky went all in too soon. Had he waited, he could have gotten more, especially considering there was interes from other teams.

[Larkin411]

Uck. What really gets to me is that I'm punished twice since I've unfortunately developed into a Yankees fan(I swear I used to hate them but they got to me somehow).

[Johnny Footstool]

The Reds absolutely should be worried about Arroyo's K rate. Pitchers who can sustain success without striking batters out are only slightly more common than unicorns and jackelopes. Arroyo is stuck relying on the Reds defense to generate most of his outs for him. Is anyone happy about that?


The Reds had the leverage. Krivsky went all in too soon. Had he waited, he could have gotten more, especially considering there was interes from other teams.

Exactly.

[registerthis]

But see..we don't have to have a hole at 1st base, we can put Freel or Deno out in the OF and have Dunn at 1st (where he will end up anyway) and be much better off, starting Hatteberg over those other options just doesn't make any sense.

I do wonder what the thinking is. Is there some unwritten rule about penciling in Freel as a starter somewhere? What does the guy have to do to prove he deserves and everyday role? I'm tired of the "super-sub" excuse, particularly now that there's a glaring hole in the lineup.

[Red Leader]

Then that's the sign that he's a bad salesman, or an even worse judge of talent and situations. The Reds are not going to win the division or the WC with either WMP or Arroyo alone. Is there another RH bat like WMP's (young, deveveloping) on the market right now? No.

The Reds had the leverage. Krivsky went all in too soon. Had he waited, he could have gotten more, especially considering there was interes from other teams.

Could be. Also could be that R Cast told him to move on it, and do before Pena got back from the WBC, and that's the best deal that was on the table. We don't know. We probably won't know.

Personally, I think they could have gotten more for WMP at the deadline this year if they were going to trade him. Obviously, for some reason, they didn't want to wait that long. :dunno:

[TRF]

Could be. Also could be that R Cast told him to move on it, and do before Pena got back from the WBC, and that's the best deal that was on the table. We don't know. We probably won't know.

Personally, I think they could have gotten more for WMP at the deadline this year if they were going to trade him. Obviously, for some reason, they didn't want to wait that long. :dunno:

All of what you typed is bad, bad, bad for the Reds future if true. To not get maximum return when you have leverage, and yes, the Reds had leverage is a crime.

That leverage was named 1.5 mil, The Baltimore Orioles, and the Chicago Cubs.

Like I said, I'm not dissatisfied with getting Arroyo. But there needed to be more. I bet the Reds regret that there wasn't more by June.

[registerthis]

The Reds had the leverage. Krivsky went all in too soon. Had he waited, he could have gotten more, especially considering there was interes from other teams.

That's pure speculation...we have no way of knowing what other offers were being entertained for WMP. And had WMP started off slowly--say, hitting .230-7-30 by June, people would have been moaning about the lost opportunity to trade him while the iron was hot. I'm not saying that WMP is going to tank this year, only that it's a waste of time to play the "What if?" game. Unless someone has knowledge of Krivsky turning down a better offer than Arroyo, I think this deal is fine. WMP doesn't have near the value that some people would like to place on him--not now, anyway. I think the return the reds got here is acceptable.

[Red Leader]

All of what you typed is bad, bad, bad for the Reds future if true. To not get maximum return when you have leverage, and yes, the Reds had leverage is a crime.

That leverage was named 1.5 mil, The Baltimore Orioles, and the Chicago Cubs.

Like I said, I'm not dissatisfied with getting Arroyo. But there needed to be more. I bet the Reds regret that there wasn't more by June.

I fully, 100% agree with you. I was playing devils advocate on how it could have happened....and like I said, I'm purely guessing, we'll probably never know WHY they made the move today...

[Larkin411]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet but this is a link to an interview with Theo Epstein about Wily Mo:

http://www.bostondirtdogs.com/

[TC81190]

:bang: :bang: :bang: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :bang:

[TRF]

That's pure speculation...we have no way of knowing what other offers were being entertained for WMP. And had WMP started off slowly--say, hitting .230-7-30 by June, people would have been moaning about the lost opportunity to trade him while the iron was hot. I'm not saying that WMP is going to tank this year, only that it's a waste of time to play the "What if?" game. Unless someone has knowledge of Krivsky turning down a better offer than Arroyo, I think this deal is fine. WMP doesn't have near the value that some people would like to place on him--not now, anyway. I think the return the reds got here is acceptable.

I didn't say I knew what the other offers were, just that there was interest from other teams. That was widely reported. Baltimore was one, Chicago was one. That's all Boston needed to know. And it's why this trade get's a C- from me. Arroyo was a good start. 1.5 mil was a bad finish.

[RedsManRick]

For all those saying we had leverage, the Sox looked pretty willing to deal and it's not like the Reds were the only game in town. Sure, we possibly could've held out for more. We also could've held out until Craig Wilson was traded for Arroyo and the Sox took Clement off the table.

Given the amount of supposed interest in Pena, you'd have to think that if somebody else had a comprable offer, that offer would've been acted on. If Krivsky holds his cards for too long and the offer goes away, well then you have Dan O'Brien.

[TRF]

For all those saying we had leverage, the Sox looked pretty willing to deal and it's not like the Reds were the only game in town. Sure, we possibly could've held out for more. We also could've held out until Craig Wilson was traded for Arroyo and the Sox took Clement off the table.

Given the amount of supposed interest in Pena, you'd have to think that if somebody else had a comprable offer, that offer would've been acted on. If Krivsky holds his cards for too long and the offer goes away, well then you have Dan O'Brien.

Who were the other players on the market comparable to WMP? under the teams control for three more years, prodigous power, 24 years old.

Name another player like that on the market. Yeah, I can't either. WMP is an enigma with the upside of the space needle. Kriv should have played these teams against each other better. He certainly should have gotten another arm instead of money to round out the deal.

[KronoRed]

I heard Narron's using the Chewbacca defense.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/08/0330chewbacca.jpg
:laugh:

[KronoRed]

So what do you guys think? What does it say about Kearns/Dunn future here?
Moving Dunn back is a bad move IMO, he's going otbe 1 1st baseman, why move him back?

[ochre]

The two most recent significant trades made by the Reds were to trade away Casey and Pena for pitchers many here are underwhelmed with, which in turn appears to indicate that:
1. O'Brien and Krivsky are both incompetent ( I agree with that evaluation as it applies to DanO); and/or
2. Posters here have vastly overrated the market for Casey and Pena ( I have to go for this one as well).
O'Brien did little to improve Pena's value and he should have moved Casey the previous season. The jury is still out on Krivsky, Lindner-Lite, et al.

[registerthis]

I didn't say I knew what the other offers were, just that there was interest from other teams. That was widely reported. Baltimore was one, Chicago was one. That's all Boston needed to know. And it's why this trade get's a C- from me. Arroyo was a good start. 1.5 mil was a bad finish.

I think it's asking too much for the Sox to part with a quality, ML-caliber starter AND a prospect of any value in exchange for Wily Mo. I think Wily Mo's value was either an established ML starter with some success (Arroyo), a AAAA innings-eater and a marginal prospect, or an unproven prospect with sky-high potential. Krivsky decided to go with choice 'A', after taking into consideration the state of the reds rotation. I can't say that I blame him.

[Ravenlord]

now if there's some way to pry Craig Wilson from the Pirates and plug him in at first base.