Eric_Davis
03-25-2006, 01:31 PM
It doesn't matter too much what hitters do during spring training. You pretty much know what you're going to get when the regular season starts.
With pitchers, however, it's a little different.
Everyone has their own ideas on what stat is important (when you don't have the opportunity to view the pitchers in person, a stat is all you have to go off of) to assess how a pitcher will look in April and May from their Spring Training appearances.
For me over the decades, it's always been the WHIP stat, long before they even came up with the stat itself.
I really don't care if a pitcher gives up a homerun or a single or a walk to a hitter because the pitcher during spring is working on "his" fundamentals", not on which pitch to fool a hitter with.
Consequently you're going to throw a 2-0 fastball to a Manny Ramirez or another favorite pitch to a different hitter that he launches out of the park or drives to the gap for a double.
Having watched the transition over the years of the number of batters reaching base per inning pitched and the pattern it shows to success during April and May, I find it to be the most solid stat, in fact, the only stat I pay attention to during Spring.
With that said, it's disheartening to see how horrendous the entire REDS pitching staff has been, excluding the exceptional Spring that Claussen has had.
There are a couple of players not projected to make the Opening Day roster that have done well, too. But the projected starting 11 or 12 pitchers have been horrible.
The Good News:
Stats can be heavily weighed by just a couple of bad early outings in Spring, so even more stock is put into what happened during their last outing, as it's usually against a lineup of opposing starters, too, and the pitcher is also allowed to stretch out his innings.
With Milton's and Williams last outings being successful, and the addition of Arroyo adding another potential winner to the staff, there is hope that our starters can leave duing the 6th and 7th innings in April and May with leads of 4-3, 5-4, and 6-4.
I doubt if we'll score any fewer runs than last year, and I believe that we'll score even more. So, if the staff can bring it's overall ERA down to about 4.40, we should win 85 games this year, putting us in contention for a Wild-Card spot when September 1st rolls around.
With pitchers, however, it's a little different.
Everyone has their own ideas on what stat is important (when you don't have the opportunity to view the pitchers in person, a stat is all you have to go off of) to assess how a pitcher will look in April and May from their Spring Training appearances.
For me over the decades, it's always been the WHIP stat, long before they even came up with the stat itself.
I really don't care if a pitcher gives up a homerun or a single or a walk to a hitter because the pitcher during spring is working on "his" fundamentals", not on which pitch to fool a hitter with.
Consequently you're going to throw a 2-0 fastball to a Manny Ramirez or another favorite pitch to a different hitter that he launches out of the park or drives to the gap for a double.
Having watched the transition over the years of the number of batters reaching base per inning pitched and the pattern it shows to success during April and May, I find it to be the most solid stat, in fact, the only stat I pay attention to during Spring.
With that said, it's disheartening to see how horrendous the entire REDS pitching staff has been, excluding the exceptional Spring that Claussen has had.
There are a couple of players not projected to make the Opening Day roster that have done well, too. But the projected starting 11 or 12 pitchers have been horrible.
The Good News:
Stats can be heavily weighed by just a couple of bad early outings in Spring, so even more stock is put into what happened during their last outing, as it's usually against a lineup of opposing starters, too, and the pitcher is also allowed to stretch out his innings.
With Milton's and Williams last outings being successful, and the addition of Arroyo adding another potential winner to the staff, there is hope that our starters can leave duing the 6th and 7th innings in April and May with leads of 4-3, 5-4, and 6-4.
I doubt if we'll score any fewer runs than last year, and I believe that we'll score even more. So, if the staff can bring it's overall ERA down to about 4.40, we should win 85 games this year, putting us in contention for a Wild-Card spot when September 1st rolls around.