Verducci

[cincrazy]

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has listed Encarnacion as his breakout player of the year. Nice to see us finally get some recognition nationally. Any thoughts on what kind of numbers you all think he will put up over a whole season? I can see .270, 25-30 homers in our ballpark, and 80 or so runs driven in. I don't really see him hitting for a very high average, but I don't think he'll be as bad as Dunn in the BA department either. I really think that he's a guy that can put himself on the baseball map this year. Many casual fans don't know who he is, just like with Lopez last year. I think that Encarnacion can mirror the season Lopez had in some ways this year, as far as getting his name out there.

[RedsManRick]

I think your homer number is a bit high, but he's got the potential to be a real "run producer" as they say. I'm thinking an upper end projection of .265/22/95 thanks to great OBP ahead of him and lots of doubles.

[dougdirt]

I am going .270/27/84 with 31 doubles.

[Joseph]

I'll play.

.260/21/77

Does he qualify for RoY anymore or did he play too much last season?

[dougdirt]

He played to much last season Joseph.

[pmurray48]

275/23/84

[Heath]

Ok - here are some first-year 3B for the Reds using the same AVG/HR/RBI splits -

1 .280/14/72
2 .244/19/63
3 .271/11/44
4 .193/10/45
5 .318/10/79
6 .281/7/56
7 .266/4/48

Here is who they are -

1 - Aaron Boone - 1999
2 - Willie Greene - 1996
3 - Chris Sabo - 1988
4 - Nick Esasky - 1984 (He was called up in June of 1983 - hit .265/12/46 in '83
5 - Ray Knight - 1979
6 - Dan Driessen - 1974
7 - Charlie Dressen - 1926 - (IMO, the best Reds team NEVER to win a pennant - 1964 team would be second)


So, what does this have to do with EdE? Well, absolutely nothing except that the Reds never had any 3B prospects from about 1930-1974 (sans Tony Perez who moved to 3b to accomodate Lee May) Names like Werber, Adams, Jablonski, Hoak, Freese, Menke, Vukovich, Auerbach, Bell, Fernandez, and Randa manned the Hot Corner for spells and they were largely products from other teams.

Bottom Line - EdE might be the best 3B prospect the Reds have ever had come up through the system, though he was never drafted by the Reds.

I predict - around a Willie Greene 1996 season - but a little higher all around. I'm saying .257/21/70 should be about right. I'm guessing he's never going to be an average type hitter, but he may lead the league in doubles someday.

I also think I stole woy's thunder after typing this out-I think he's done some work on an essay entitled "The Reds & Hot Corner - A comprehensive history". Consider this the dab of whipped cream on top of a large piece of apple pie.

[dougdirt]

Heath, what would lead you to believe he will never hit for average?
He was a career .290 minor league hitter, and he hit over .300 at 4 different levels through the minors.

[Highlifeman21]

I think your homer number is a bit high, but he's got the potential to be a real "run producer" as they say. I'm thinking an upper end projection of .265/22/95 thanks to great OBP ahead of him and lots of doubles.


but will he be producing win-effective runs?


.283/17HR/80RBI

I just hope he puts up an OBP over .375

[Heath]

Heath, what would lead you to believe he will never hit for average?
He was a career .290 minor league hitter, and he hit over .300 at 4 different levels through the minors.

It's an assumption more than anything - I'm thinking the stars in his eyes the first few years might lead to more uncontrolled swings.

If he hits in the Ron Cey/Mike Schmidt/Chris Sabo average camp - he's about .267. That's on par with one Johnny Lee Bench.

And I'd take it.