Big Years - predictions

[Puffy]

OK, who do you predict to have a HUGE year - and the Pujols, Guerrero's and Sheffield's don't count, we know those guys will put up numbers.

Here is who I think will have monster years:

Griffey - always depends on health, but I think he plays 140+ games and hits over .300 with somewhere between 46 and 52 homeruns.

Beltre - looked awesome in WBC. Said he changed his stride to more like 2004, so I think he puts up numbers close to his 2004 season.

Bobby Crosby - takes a big step forward this season. Puts up numbers similar to Tejada.

Beltran - goes 30/30 and bats over .295.

[RedsManRick]

I think Joe Mauer will have a real breakout season thanks to Justin Morneau finding his swing and Jason Kubel added to the lineup.

I'm thinking .320/.420/.500 with about 18-20 HR and a truck full of doubles.

[vaticanplum]

David Wright and Javier Vazquez. I'm too lazy to come up with imaginary numbers.

[KearnsyEars]

Beltre - looked awesome in WBC. Said he changed his stride to more like 2004, so I think he puts up numbers close to his 2004 season.

Stride had little to do with hi 2004 success. That boy was juicing big time.

I think the following guys have breakout years off the top of my head:

Adam Dunn- 50 HR, .270, 110 RBI

Mike Gonzalez- Next great closer in baseball, 40+ saves and under 3.00 ERA

Aramis Ramirez- Puts up Pujols like numbers and he, not Derek Lee gets MVP consideration and MVP numbers.

Grady Sizemore- 30/30 season, .300+ average, pushes indians into playoffs

Hafner- 40 homerun guaruntee

Ryan Howard- 30-40 HR and 100+ RBI

[Joseph]

Chase Utley - .290/30 hrs/105 RBI

Jake Peavey - 22-4 2.20 ERA

Nomar Garciaparra .280/31 hrs/98 RBI [comeback player of the year]

Austin Kearns [my Reds pick to click] .315/28 hrs/107 RBI

[Red Leader]

Hmmm....

Big years? Kearns? No, that's ears.

Erik Bedard takes a huge step forward and owns the league. I could see numbers close to Zito's Cy Young year, with less wins.

I agree on Beltran having a big year. I think Scott Rolen will be your NL Comeback player of the year, not Garciaparra, although I think Garciaparra puts up 21/105 numbers, which may surprise some. I could see Kelvim Escobar having a huge contract year, and I could see Oliver Perez bouncing back, although not all the way to 2.98 with 230+ K's. I could see David Bush in Milwaukee winning 14-15 games. I think Vernon Wells has a big year similar to a couple years ago when he had Delgado. Matt Holliday should surprise many if he can just be average on the road. I think Melvin Mora will have a pretty good contract year, too, similar to where he was the year before last, but I think Ryan Howard has the biggest year of them all and makes a run toward the MVP only to fall short because his team isn't in contention. I'm guessing: 43 HR, 138 RBI, 98 R, .297 AVG. Big Papi numbers.

[RedsManRick]

Interesting thing I came across this year while doing research for fantasy:

1B Ryan Howard, 25:
312 AB, .288/.356/.567, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 33 BB, 100 SO

OF Johnny Gomes, 24:
348 AB, .282/.372/.534, 21 HR, 54, 39 BB, 113 SO, 9 SB (5 CS)

One of these guys gets touted as the next great slugger. One of them barely gets a mention, anywhere, for any reason. I'm not saying that Gomes will hit 40 homers, but seriously, where's the love for what he did last season?

[KearnsyEars]

Garret Atkins, Colorado.

And on the Kearns bit. I love AK, and I wish him the best career possible. I have GIVEN up on the superstar status/ breakout year. I think he's his own worst enemy at this point. I don't think we'll ever see the dominating player of early 2002, when he was hitting like manny ramirez before King sat on him, again.

[Red Leader]

I don't follow the Eggs as much as I should, but is Gomes guaranteed playing time all year? I think it'd be hard to sit him, but with Crawford, Baldelli permanant starters, and Gathrait and Delmon Young pushing, not to mention if Huff doesn't work out at 3B and has to go back to the OF, could Gomes sit if he struggles for any period of time, or will they just rotate the OF's and put Gomes at DH?

[KearnsyEars]

Franceour:

.300+, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB

[RedsManRick]

I don't follow the Eggs as much as I should, but is Gomes guaranteed playing time all year? I think it'd be hard to sit him, but with Crawford, Baldelli permanant starters, and Gathrait and Delmon Young pushing, not to mention if Huff doesn't work out at 3B and has to go back to the OF, could Gomes sit if he struggles for any period of time, or will they just rotate the OF's and put Gomes at DH?

I don't know if he's guarenteed playing time. That said, I believe Gathright will only start in CF if Baldelli is out. Gomes should start in RF. If Baldelli plays, Gathright would go to RF I imagine and Gomes would DH. Either way, Huff has to work out at 3rd or be traded. And when Young is ready to come up this summer, Gathright will be the one to be dealt in all likelihood.

[KearnsyEars]

What do you guys think of Garrett Atkins, 3B, Colorado

[IowaRed]

Berkman
Cano
Blalock
Holliday
Webb
Lackey
M. Gonzalez

[Falls City Beer]

Berkman wins the MVP (yeah, big limb, there)

Bucholz--ROY

I like the David Wright pick

[Red Leader]

I forgot about Cano. I think he has a pretty big year as well, and I think Blalock rebounds from the disappointment of last year and hits 35 HR and 100 RBI for sure.

Atkins? He's not a real power guy, but he will hit for a good average, and depending on where he is in the lineup, could approach 100 RBI.

[Red Leader]

I like the David Wright pick

I owned both Wright and Jason Bay last year (along with Dunn and Hafner...ahhh, I miss that team). I digress. Anyway, I'm betting that Jason Bay out-paces David Wright in every category this year, with the exception of RBI, because of the players Wright has to drive in.

[Cyclone792]

I'll go one position player and one pitcher each, with those choices being David Wright and Rich Harden.

[Jpup]

Jake Peavy, Jeff Francouer, Carlos Beltran, Randy Winn, Brandon Claussen

[guttle11]

Edwin Encarnacion
Joe Mauer
Mike Lowell

[KronoRed]

Brad Wilkerson

[max venable]

Justin Morneau, Twins

[OnBaseMachine]

Adam Dunn...280/.430/.595 49 homeruns
David Wright....400 OBP and 30 homers
Jonny Gomes...275/.365/.525 35 homers
Ryan Howard...38 homeruns and .900 OPS
Austin Kearns...OPS in the .875-.900 range with 25 homers

Rich Harden-Will win AL Cy Young
Daniel Cabrera-Big year under Leo Mazzone

[Izzardius]

Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Cabrera, and Adam Wainwright:cool:

[SteelSD]

Curtis Granderson

He's near prototype.

[cincrazy]

For all the hype Liriano gets with the Twins, keep an eye on Scott Baker, who could have a good year. Also, Joe Blanton of the A's, who put up great stats over the second half of last year. I think Renteria bounces back in the NL with the Braves, and I also think Jim Thome with the White Sox can recapture some of his past glory and have a big year.

[Gainesville Red]

I can't pick anyone. I feel like I'm jinxing them. Last year I picked D'Angleo Jiminez, and you saw what happened to him.

[GAC]

Mark Teixeira, Aaron Harang

[max venable]

I can't pick anyone. I feel like I'm jinxing them. Last year I picked D'Angleo Jiminez, and you saw what happened to him.
well then...would you PLEASE pick Tony Womack this year? ;)

[vaticanplum]

David Wright

One week in, I'm doing well!

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/10/sports/baseball/10mets.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

My mother adores David Wright. You read an article like this, it's very clear why. David Wright is incredibly mom-friendly.

[Red Leader]

Curtis Granderson

He's near prototype.

What kind of numbers do you expect him to put up Steel?

100 runs, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 20 SB, .290 AVG, 350 OBP?

Is his ceiling that high this year?

[SteelSD]

What kind of numbers do you expect him to put up Steel?

100 runs, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 20 SB, .290 AVG, 350 OBP?

Is his ceiling that high this year?

I always hate to project a BA that high for a first full year, but I think you're pretty close. Not sure what PECOTA says, but I'd go .275 BA/.345 OBP/.485 SLG for this year (similar to Grady Sizemore's 2005 numbers). He won't get as many SB as a guy like Mike Cameron (during his prime), so I think 20 SB is a good number. And because he's hitting leadoff and will be benefitting from increased PA, I expect his HR total to be closer to 25 than 20.

In ST, I really had hoped that Jim Leyland would fall in love with Nook Logan- which would have made Granderson available possibly. But Leyland figured out that Granderson was the better option. I have enough confidence in the guy that I took him with my first pick in my keeper league (which is closer to an 8th round selection as we each kept 7 players from last year).

Long-term, I think Granderson will easily raise his Isolated Discipline numbers to 80 points and a .100 IsoD isn't out of the question. If that happens, you've got a consistent .280 BA/.380 OBP/.500 SLG Centerfielder with 30/30 potential.

[Stewie]

I may be a shade late on the draw here, But I love Danny Haren. I think he is going to explode this year. I think Jeremy Bonderman will fully come into his own this year and do quite well, too.

Also, I'm a big Ryan Howard fan (not surprisingly). I just wish Charlie Manuel would stop batting Rowand 2nd, so Abreu, Utley, Burrell, and Howard could move up in the order and get some more at bats.

[Red Leader]

I may be a shade late on the draw here, But I love Danny Haren. I think he is going to explode this year. I think Jeremy Bonderman will fully come into his own this year and do quite well, too.

Also, I'm a big Ryan Howard fan (not surprisingly). I just wish Charlie Manuel would stop batting Rowand 2nd, so Abreu, Utley, Burrell, and Howard could move up in the order and get some more at bats.

I always though Abreu would make a great 2nd spot hitter, he just didn't have the players around him to do it before this year. When Thome was there, it made it difficult to put Abreu 2nd, Thome 3rd, and Burrell 4th. Now that Thome is gone and Utley and Howard have shown they can mash, it makes a lot of sense.

Rollins, Abreu, Utley, Burrell and Howard make a great 1-5. I don't think we'll see it, but I think that would help them because of Abreu's OBP and Utley, Burrell and Howards SLG%.