Homer Bailey pitching at 10:35 AM this morning

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota plays @ Lakeland at 10:35 AM this morning. Homer Bailey is scheduled to pitch for SaraReds. I'll try to an update after every inning since I don't have anything else to do today.

[Heath]

Wow-that's taking the "business person day" a little too far.

Breakfast with Bailey.

[OnBaseMachine]

Top 1st

-Brandon Roberts singles on a fly ball to right fielder Victor Mendez.

With Drew Anderson batting, Brandon Roberts steals (8) 2nd base.

-Drew Anderson grounds out, third baseman Wilkin Ramirez to first baseman Jeff Larish.
With Adam Rosales batting, Brandon Roberts picked off and caught stealing 3rd base, pitcher Dallas Trahern to third baseman Wilkin Ramirez to shortstop Miguel Linares.

-Adam Rosales walks.

-Jeremiah Piepkorn reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Miguel Linares. Adam Rosales to 2nd.

-Cody Strait reaches on throwing error by third baseman Wilkin Ramirez. Adam Rosales to 3rd. Jeremiah Piepkorn to 2nd.

-Tonys Gutierrez grounds out, second baseman Gilberto Mejia to first baseman Jeff Larish.

[OnBaseMachine]

Bottom 1st, Homer Bailey pitching:

-Gilberto Mejia grounds out, third baseman Trevor Lawhorn to first baseman Tonys Gutierrez.

-Clete Thomas strikes out swinging.

-Jeffrey Frazier pops out to second baseman Drew Anderson.

Bailey: 1 inning, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 1 strikeout

[membengal]

OBM, the updates are much appreciated...

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota Top 2nd

-John Purdom singles on a line drive to left fielder Jeffrey Frazier.

-Philip Gentry grounds into double play, second baseman Gilberto Mejia to shortstop Miguel Linares to first baseman Jeff Larish. John PurdomIII out at 2nd.

-Trevor Lawhorn reaches on fielding error by third baseman Wilkin Ramirez.

-Brandon Roberts grounds into a force out, second baseman Gilberto Mejia to shortstop Miguel Linares. Trevor Lawhorn out at 2nd.

Lakeland Bottom 2nd

-Jeff Larish pops out to catcher John PurdomIII in foul territory.

-Wilkin Ramirez strikes out swinging.

-Victor Mendez strikes out swinging.

Bailey: 2 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts

[Luvsbaseball]

Can we listen to the game on the internet today????

[OnBaseMachine]

Can we listen to the game on the internet today????

I don't think today's game is available on radio.

[Luvsbaseball]

Thanks....

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota Top 3rd

-Drew Anderson grounds out, second baseman Gilberto Mejia to first baseman Jeff Larish.

-Adam Rosales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Clete Thomas.

-Jeremiah Piepkorn strikes out swinging and Adam Rosales caught stealing 2nd, catcher Andrew Graham to second baseman Gilberto Mejia.

[Joseph]

Thanks for the updates OBM.

[OnBaseMachine]

No problem, guys.

Lakeland Bottom 3rd

-Nick McIntyre walks.

-Miguel Linares grounds into double play, shortstop Adam Rosales to second baseman Drew Anderson to first baseman Tonys Gutierrez. Nick McIntyre out at 2nd.

-Andrew Graham walks.
With Gilberto Mejia batting, Andrew Graham steals (1) 2nd base.

-Gilberto Mejia strikes out swinging.

Bailey: 3 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts

[medford]

Thanks..

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota Top 4th

-Cody Strait grounds out, third baseman Wilkin Ramirez to first baseman Jeff Larish.

-Tonys Gutierrez hit by pitch.

-John PurdomIII grounds into double play, third baseman Wilkin Ramirez to second baseman Gilberto Mejia to first baseman Jeff Larish. Tonys Gutierrez out at 2nd.

[OnBaseMachine]

Lakeland Bottom 4th

-Clete Thomas flies out to center fielder Brandon Roberts.

-Jeffrey Frazier grounds out, second baseman Drew Anderson to first baseman Tonys Gutierrez.

-Jeff Larish strikes out swinging.

Bailey: 4 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts

ERA down to 3.33

[membengal]

Lakeland Bottom 4th

-Clete Thomas flies out to center fielder Brandon Roberts.

-Jeffrey Frazier grounds out, second baseman Drew Anderson to first baseman Tonys Gutierrez.

-Jeff Larish strikes out swinging.

Bailey: 4 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts

ERA down to 3.33

Bailey's K rate has been quite healthy so far this year. Quite healthy.

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota Top 5th

-Philip Gentry grounds out, first baseman Jeff Larish to pitcher Dallas Trahern.

-Trevor Lawhorn flies out to right fielder Victor Mendez.

-Brandon Roberts singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Dallas Trahern. Brandon Roberts advances to 2nd, on throwing error by pitcher Dallas Trahern.

-Drew Anderson flies out to center fielder Clete Thomas.

[OnBaseMachine]

Lakeland Bottom 5th

-Wilkin Ramirez strikes out swinging.
-Victor Mendez flies out to left fielder Jeremiah Piepkorn.
-Nick McIntyre called out on strikes.

Bailey: 5 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts

[membengal]

Wow. Nice line. He's pretty much only been going five innings so far this year, wonder if they will pull him now with a minor no/no going...

[Cedric]

They should. With 7 k's and 2 bb's his pitch count has to be high.

[dougdirt]

OBM thanks for the updates, I totally forgot about the early game today and just got done doing my knee rehab and it was refreshing to sit down and be able to read the pbp, so thanks again.

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota Top 6th

-Adam Rosales flies out to left fielder Jeffrey Frazier.
-Jeremiah Piepkorn strikes out swinging.
-Cody Strait called out on strikes.

[dougdirt]

Bailey is through 6, 9 strikeouts, 0 hits and 2 walks. Very nice outing. I would be suprised to see him come out for the 7th though. We will see.

[OnBaseMachine]

Lakeland Bottom 6th

-Miguel Linares strikes out swinging.
-Andrew Graham strikes out swinging.
-Gilberto Mejia grounds out to first baseman Tonys Gutierrez.

Bailey: 6 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts

I imagine that is his last inning. THAT is the type of pitching performance I have been wanting out of Bailey. Homer showed up what all the hype was about today, now let's hope that he can stay consistent and string together a few dominant starts in a row.

[membengal]

Bailey is through 6, 9 strikeouts, 0 hits and 2 walks. Very nice outing. I would be suprised to see him come out for the 7th though. We will see.

Calling that a "very nice outing", is like calling Jessica Alba "a little pretty". Great outing for Bailey...for those that have been wanting to see "domination" of this level, this kind of start clearly counts...

[New Fever]

I was thinking the same thing. Production like that has been seen rarely out of a Reds pitching prospect.

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota Top 7th

-Tonys Gutierrez grounds out to first baseman Jeff Larish.
-John PurdomIII grounds out, first baseman Jeff Larish to pitcher Dallas Trahern.
-Philip Gentry strikes out swinging.

Still no score after 6-1/2 innings.

[OnBaseMachine]

Homer is done after six outstanding innings. Brock Till threw a 1-2-3 7th inning. The no-hitter is still intact.

[membengal]

Six inning outing from Bailey with that line? Brightens up the pain of having to suffer through a Reds off day...

[OnBaseMachine]

Updated 2006 stats on Homer Bailey:

26.1 innings, 18 hits, 2 HR, 7 walks, 29 strikeouts, 0.96 WHIP, 3.08 ERA

6.21 H/9
2.41 BB/9
10.0 K/9

That's the kind of stats that future ace's put up. Keep it up, Homer.

[Joseph]

Jessica Alba is only kinda pretty.

Homer Bailey is a good young pitcher though.

Just saying.

[Caveat Emperor]

Updated 2006 stats on Homer Bailey:

26.1 innings, 18 hits, 2 HR, 7 walks, 29 strikeouts, 0.96 WHIP, 3.08 ERA

6.21 H/9
2.41 BB/9
10.0 K/9

That's the kind of stats that future ace's put up. Keep it up, Homer.

Assuming he continues to replicate these stats, or if his ERA dips lower (maybe to 2.75-range) and his peripherals remain the same -- does he stay in Sarasota to domiante for the full season, or does he move to Chattanooga mid-season?

I say leave him in Sarasota and give him a full season to build confidence. The stuff this kid has is tempting to push, but he's just too valuable to risk blowing out this early.

[OnBaseMachine]

Sarasota Top 8th

-Pitcher Change: Jeff Hahn replaces Dallas Trahern.
-Trevor Lawhorn strikes out swinging.
-Brandon Roberts walks.
-Drew Anderson homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Brandon Roberts scores.
-Adam Rosales called out on strikes.
-Jeremiah Piepkorn strikes out swinging.

2-0 Sarasota heading to the bottom of the 8th. Can they preserve the no-hitter?

[OnBaseMachine]

Brock Till fires another 1-2-3 8th inning! The no-hitter is still intact as the game heads to the 9th inning.

[Gallen5862]

Thanks for the pbp OBM. What happened in the 9th inning?

[OnBaseMachine]

2-0 Sarasota heading to the bottom of the 9th. Three out away from a no-hitter.

Sarasota Top 9th

Defensive Substitution: Brent Dlugach remains in the game as the shortstop.
Pitcher Change: Eddie Bonine replaces Jeff Hahn.

-Cody Strait singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jeffrey Frazier.
With Tonys Gutierrez batting, Cody Strait steals (11) 2nd base.
With Tonys Gutierrez batting, Cody Strait steals (12) 3rd base.

-Tonys Gutierrez strikes out swinging.

-John PurdomIII grounds out, pitcher Eddie Bonine to first baseman Jeff Larish.

-Eddie Bonine intentionally walks Philip Gentry.

-Trevor Lawhorn flies out to left fielder Jeffrey Frazier.

[OnBaseMachine]

Carlos Alvarado in to pitch for the Reds...

[medford]

You think that guy is feeling some pressure?

[OnBaseMachine]

Carlos Alvarado in to pitch for the Reds...

He blew it. A guy dropped down a bunt single with one out.

Lakeland Bottom 9th

Pitcher Change: Carlos Alvarado replaces Brock Till.
Offensive Substitution: Pinch hitter James Essian replaces Andrew Graham.

-James Essian strikes out swinging.

-Gilberto Mejia singles on a bunt ground ball to second baseman Drew Anderson.

-Clete Thomas called out on strikes.

-Jeffrey Frazier flies out to center fielder Brandon Roberts.

Sarasota won 2-0 on a one hit shutout. Two outs away from the no-no and a guy drops down a bunt single.

[Patrick Bateman]

Lakeland singles on a BUNT!

Bush league.

They still get the shutout.

[CTA513]

He blew it. A guy dropped down a bunt single with one out.

Lakeland Bottom 9th

Pitcher Change: Carlos Alvarado replaces Brock Till.
Offensive Substitution: Pinch hitter James Essian replaces Andrew Graham.

-James Essian strikes out swinging.

-Gilberto Mejia singles on a bunt ground ball to second baseman Drew Anderson.

-Clete Thomas called out on strikes.

-Jeffrey Frazier flies out to center fielder Brandon Roberts.

They should bean Mejia next time they play him. :thumbdown

[Puffy]

Jessica Alba is only kinda pretty.

Just saying.

I must disagree.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2005-10/1094821/jessica_alba_004.jpg

[Gallen5862]

Great job OBM. It sounds like Homer was really had great stuff today.

[medford]

Somewhere a Cubs Announcer is cursing Lakeland. Do the same 2 teams play tomorrow? Wonder if Mejia gets plunked next time he comes to the plate against the Sar. Reds

[Puffy]

They should bean Mejia next time they play him. :thumbdown

Why?

Isn't a batters job in a 2-0 game to get on base so that the tying runner comes to the plate? And isn't a bunt single a fantastic way to get said tying runner to the plate? These guys are trying to win - if this was a 5-0 game I'd see your point, but in a close game like this you gotta get on base to give your team a chance anyway you can.

[OnBaseMachine]

Why?

Isn't a batters job in a 2-0 game to get on base so that the tying runner comes to the plate? And isn't a bunt single a fantastic way to get said tying runner to the plate? These guys are trying to win - if this was a 5-0 game I'd see your point, but in a close game like this you gotta get on base to give your team a chance anyway you can.

I agree, I have no problem with him trying to bunt his way on there. Now if it were a 5 or 6 run lead then it would be a much different story.

I also agree on Jessica Alba. She is one of the hottest chicks I have ever seen.:cool:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/entertainment/2006-04/05/xin_47040305144738612991.jpg

[lollipopcurve]

Thanks OBM.

Show 'em, Homer.

[CTA513]

Why?

Isn't a batters job in a 2-0 game to get on base so that the tying runner comes to the plate? And isn't a bunt single a fantastic way to get said tying runner to the plate? These guys are trying to win - if this was a 5-0 game I'd see your point, but in a close game like this you gotta get on base to give your team a chance anyway you can.

Yes its the batters job to get on base, but why didnt they try to do that the rest of the game?

[Caveat Emperor]

I must disagree.

That photo made my day. Jessica Alba isn't just kinda pretty she's all kinds of pretty.

[medford]

Why, because for some reason its in Baseball's unwritten code, thou shall not break up a no hitter in the 9th w/ a bunt single. At least I believe that is section of the unwritten manual that Bob Brenely referenced a couple of years ago.

I agree that it is the batters primary job to get on base any way possible when you're down 2 in the 9th. If a bunt single gets the job done, then by all means, I personally don't have a problem w/ it. However, I do question if they will hit him next time the 2 squads face off. I've been told that his is what "scrappy" teams do :D

[traderumor]

That photo made my day. Jessica Alba isn't just kinda pretty she's all kinds of pretty.Some of the beautiful people are debatable, but I don't think Jessica Alba is one of them. "Hey kids, wanna watch the Fantastic 4 again tonight?" :evil:

Ok, off to repent.

[traderumor]

Oh yea, good job Homer. More of that, his numbers went immediately from so-so to impressive. Keep up the good work, whether you become our ace or help land us one.

[edabbs44]

Why?

Isn't a batters job in a 2-0 game to get on base so that the tying runner comes to the plate? And isn't a bunt single a fantastic way to get said tying runner to the plate? These guys are trying to win - if this was a 5-0 game I'd see your point, but in a close game like this you gotta get on base to give your team a chance anyway you can.

Agreed here. Teams shouldn't have to lay down just b/c they have no hits. The object is to win and they needed to get people on base. Bad way to lose the no-no, but still part of the game. If it were 10-0 it would be a diff story.

[CTA513]

I dont see how it would be a different story if they were up by more.
If they are only up by 2 its ok to bunt for a single, but if they are up by 5 or more its not ok?

:dunno:

[Aronchis]

Phillip Hughes is most likely jealous now and will pitch a 7 inning perfect game.

[Heath]

Wow - thanks for the pbp OBM - I am having Dayton Dragons flashbacks from 2005 with Piepkorn, Gentry, & Gutierrez, et. al.

Good work by Homer - maybe a mid-season call-up to Chattanooga at this rate.

Oh, yes, obligatory Jessica Alba picture. It's in the rules. I agree, she's kinda pretty.

http://www.cbsnews.com/images/2006/04/05/imageNYET16904050133.jpg

[flyer85]

Lakeland singles on a BUNT!

Bush league.at the major league level that would get you on the list for getting drilled in the future.

[Cyclone792]

A quick comparison ...


ERA WHIP K/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/BB H/9
Bailey 2004 (Low A) 4.43 1.46 10.85 0.43 5.38 2.02 7.73
Bailey 2005 (High A) 3.08 0.96 9.91 0.68 2.39 4.14 6.15

His sudden improvement in walk rate, to put it mildy, has been huge. He's cut his BB/9 rate in half while doubling his K/BB rate and maintaining his exceptional K/9 rate, which means he's simply gained control instead of sacrificing stuff for control. Hopefully Bailey keeps this up in Sarasota and his early start and newly improved control this season isn't merely a mirage.

[Puffy]

I dont see how it would be a different story if they were up by more.
If they are only up by 2 its ok to bunt for a single, but if they are up by 5 or more its not ok?

:dunno:

No - baseball's unwritten rule is a bunt single is a cheap way to break up a no hitter. If a guy has it going on enough to not have given up any hits the unwritten rule says bunting is a cheap way to "steal" a hit.

However, the fact is that the dude got a bunt hit putting the tying run on base. Thats the issue. If they were up by 5 runs in the ninth then that bunt would have soley served to break up the no hitter, not as a means to get the tying run to the plate. Thats a big difference.

And also, this wasn't a pitcher throwin a no hitter - this was a team. A little difference here. The bunt didn't ruin some kids no hitter. Semetics maybe, but important nonetheless.

[OnBaseMachine]

Assuming he continues to replicate these stats, or if his ERA dips lower (maybe to 2.75-range) and his peripherals remain the same -- does he stay in Sarasota to domiante for the full season, or does he move to Chattanooga mid-season?

I say leave him in Sarasota and give him a full season to build confidence. The stuff this kid has is tempting to push, but he's just too valuable to risk blowing out this early.

That's a good question.

I'm generally 100% behind being patient with young pitchers, but if Bailey is dominating the level so much that it is no longer a challange for him, then I wouldn't really mind if they bumped him to Chattanooga for the final month or two. To define dominate, I mean an ERA below 2.80, sub 1.00 WHIP, a walk rate right where its at or lower, and a K rate over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. If he can pitch produce those types of numbers for a half a year or so in Sarasota then I personally wouldn't mind if they gave him a shot in Chattanooga.

[traderumor]

Semetics maybe, but important nonetheless.Oh sure, blame it on the Jews ;) :laugh:

[MikeS21]

OK, I admit I came here to check out Homer's performance, but the JA pictures trump Homer Bailey any day of the week. :p:

[OnBaseMachine]

Homer, Reds fall just short of no-hit odyssey
Top Cincy prospect fans nine in six near-perfect frames
By Christopher Heine / Special to MLB.com

Homer Bailey's three-pitch repertoire was in full force Thursday afternoon as the Reds' top pitching prospect threw six no-hit innings to lead Sarasota past Lakeland, 2-0.

Brock Till (1-0) was nearly perfect in the seventh and eighth and earned the win for the visiting Reds. However, Carlos Alvarado gave up a bunt single to Gilberto Mejia with one out in the ninth to end the team's no-hit bid. The Mejia roller toward second base turned out to be the only Tigers hit.

"It's disappointing that we lost the no-hitter on a bunt in the ninth," said Reds catcher Tom Purdom. "But, I can't blame [Mejia] at all. It's a two-run game. They were still in it and trying to win any way they can."

Darren Anderson's two-run blast in the eighth proved to be the game-winner for Sarasota (11-10) but came too late to garner a win for Bailey, who was caught in a pitcher's duel with Lakeland starter Dallas Trahern.

Bailey, a 6-foot-4 flamethrower, was simply dominating while striking out nine, issuing two walks and lowering his ERA to 3.08. He rebounded dramatically from a poor outing against Dunedin on April 22, when he surrendered four runs on five hits in five innings.

"Today, I was just attacking with my fastball and getting ahead in the count, which made it easier to set the batters up for my changeup and curveball," Bailey said. "My change-up was better than it has been. I was locating all three of my pitches really well."

Sarasota manager Donnie Scott pulled his starter after the sixth because Bailey was too close to his mandatory 90-pitch count to justify beginning another frame. Scott said that Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky is keeping the organization's top prospect on a short leash.

Bailey's fastball typically clocks out at 92-94 mph but occasionally reaches the 96-97 range. Scott said his young hurler's reliance on it Thursday was planned.

"Homer had been pitching backwards a lot, throwing his breaking stuff first, and today we told him to go out there and trust his fastball," Scott said. "We told him to go out there and get beat with his best stuff if he's got to get beat. He was locating his fastball well, and that allowed him to get ahead in the count. Staying ahead in the count will be key for him. Once he gets that under his belt, he'll be able to take it to the next level."

Bailey, who hasn't thrown a no-hitter since tossing multiple ones in high school, didn't try to convince his manager to let him stay in the game.

"It's a little frustrating to have to come out of the game with a no-hitter going, but it's for the best in terms of my development," he said. "It would have been the first in my professional career, so it would have been kind of special."

After Mejia's bunt single, Alvarado notched his second save by striking out Clete Thomas and getting Jeffrey Frazier to hit a routine fly ball into center to end the game.

Jeff Hahn (4-1) gave up the homer to Anderson and took his first loss while throwing the eighth. Eddie Bonine blanked the Reds in the ninth to keep the game close.

Trahern was almost as good as Bailey, allowing four hits without any runs and striking out four for the Tigers (9-12). He lowered his ERA to 5.40.

With the Reds leading the series 2-0, the two teams conclude their three-game set at 7 p.m. ET on Friday. -- Christopher Heine/MLB.com

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues or its clubs.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060427&content_id=61889&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/2006/04/27/gM2W9ewS.jpg
Homer Bailey was unhittable against Lakeland on Thursday, striking out nine in six no-hit innings. (Sarasota Reds)

[registerthis]

Lakeland singles on a BUNT!

Bush league.

Well, yeah. They were playing Lakeland, after all. Doesn't get much more Bush League than that.

[Aronchis]

Interesting quote about Homer's pitch selection. Might confirm the Wood rumors as well.

[traderumor]

So, Mr. Heine can crank out an article like that and have it posted in the afternoon after a morning game, but John Fay can only give us a game story in 100 words or less the next day on the Reds. Now that's bush! Great article, thanks for posting OBM. Consistency, Homer, consistency.

[lollipopcurve]

Consistency, Homer, consistency.

All pitchers have games where they get hit. Homer's had one such game -- the rest of his starts have been good (this one stellar, obviously). I'd say he's been consistent enough so far. No one should expect him to go out and throw a game like he did today every time he's on the mound.

[Aronchis]

All pitchers have games where they get hit. Homer's had one such game -- the rest of his starts have been good (this one stellar, obviously). I'd say he's been consistent enough so far. No one should expect him to go out and throw a game like he did today every time he's on the mound.

I disagree. If Homer is close to the majors like the Reds were acting in spring, he should be having these types of games regularly.

[traderumor]

All pitchers have games where they get hit. Homer's had one such game -- the rest of his starts have been good (this one stellar, obviously). I'd say he's been consistent enough so far. No one should expect him to go out and throw a game like he did today every time he's on the mound.From what I've seen so far, his starts have been average with the one stinker you mention. This is the first time this season I recall seeing a totally dominating stat line. You should know I don't expect a no-hitter every time out, but until he holds those numbers where they're at now, I would not consider him to be dominating his level as a high #1 pick should be.

[lollipopcurve]

From what I've seen so far, his starts have been average with the one stinker you mention.

How'd you like the one where he went 5 innings, gave up 1 hit, 0 runs and walked two?

You can believe Homer has failed for a high-first round pick all you want. But, in my view, this kid is better than you recognize.

[dougdirt]

I disagree. If Homer is close to the majors like the Reds were acting in spring, he should be having these types of games regularly.

What gave you the idea that the Reds thought Bailey was close to being ready for the majors? He isnt even 20 years old yet. He isnt close to ready.

[RedsManRick]

I'm not yet convinved that Jessica Alba is pretty. More pictures please.

[traderumor]

How'd you like the one where he went 5 innings, gave up 1 hit, 0 runs and walked two?

You can believe Homer has failed for a high-first round pick all you want. But, in my view, this kid is better than you recognize.

Homer's ERA was sitting at nearly 4 and his K rate was down prior to today's outing, so he again has not been setting his league on fire. How you arrive at a conclusion about what I believe on this subject is not readily clear. His overall performance to date has not been to be consistently dominating, but consistently inconsistent. That is his body of work.

Hopefully, his removal from the tandem system is now paying benefits, but it is still more likely that if Homer Bailey, HS draftee, ever has a significant major league career, it will be in another uniform after failing with the team that drafted him. That was true the day he was picked and it still holds true today. I hope he bucks the enormous odds facing him and the Reds for the Reds to recoup their investment.

But forgive me for being skeptical when a high #1 draft pick posted an ERA in the 4s in his first full campaign at low A and was in the same range until today. Forgive me for being skeptical when an arm injury is more likely than Homer pitching for the Reds in 2008. Forgive me for understanding the flame out rate for draft picks such as Homer and not buying into the pipe dream that he's our ace in training. Man, it would be great for your gnosis on Homer to become reality, but the performance thus far has not been commensurate with your level of confidence.

[cincyinco]

Lakeland singles on a BUNT!

Bush league.

They still get the shutout.

EXACTLY!@ Beyond Bush League...

Great outing by Homer today... thanks for the PBP OBM!

[lollipopcurve]

Man, it would be great for your gnosis on Homer to become reality, but the performance thus far has not been commensurate with your level of confidence.

Depends on the performance metrics you're looking at. ERA is one thing, but K rate, HR rate, hits/innings, not to mention all the anecdotal and "soft scouting" information that has come through, has provided all kinds of evidence that Homer is a power pitching prospect worth getting excited about. But hey, you might as well ignore all that because you apparently are already close to certain about things will work out with Homer. Gnosis indeed!

[PuffyPig]

The "bunt" debate is a good one.

I've always been one to say that winning takes precent over pretty much everything, with few exceptions, and bunting when you need a baserunner is winning baseball.

But a no hitter is pretty important, and it's not like this game was (at this time) a playoff game or required to make the playoffs.

Still, it's not like Bailey was still pitching, with, in my mind, makes it obvious that you don't bunt. A team no-hitter, in the minors, isn't that big a deal (they may feel differently).

So, under the circumstances, I don't see the bunt being that big a deal. I wouldn't do it. And I wouldn't blame the team for plunking the bunter next time.But I wouldn't really criticize him for playing winning baseball.

[traderumor]

Depends on the performance metrics you're looking at. ERA is one thing, but K rate, HR rate, hits/innings, not to mention all the anecdotal and "soft scouting" information that has come through, has provided all kinds of evidence that Homer is a power pitching prospect worth getting excited about. But hey, you might as well ignore all that because you apparently are already close to certain about things will work out with Homer. Gnosis indeed!No gnosis needed to make an educated guess as to the likely outcome for Homer. There are cold hard facts stacked against him. There is nothing yet to get excited about. Now, if he hits the end of a full year in Sarasota with his numbers right where they are, shows a consistent domination of hitters at this level, and comes away with a healthy arm, then he is a legit prospect based on performance, with anecdotal and scouting information to match. Right now, the anecdotal and scouting information are inconsistent with the performance.

[cincyinco]

No gnosis needed to make an educated guess as to the likely outcome for Homer. There are cold hard facts stacked against him. There is nothing yet to get excited about. Now, if he hits the end of a full year in Sarasota with his numbers right where they are, shows a consistent domination of hitters at this level, and comes away with a healthy arm, then he is a legit prospect based on performance, with anecdotal and scouting information to match. Right now, the anecdotal and scouting information are inconsistent with the performance.

Come on TR... you know as well as I do scouting isn't all about putting up nice statistical numbers. Its about projection too. Just becuase he hasn't put up the stat lines that you think are worthy, does not mean he doesn't have the ability to be a dominant #1 pitcher at MLB.

Yes the odds are against it. I am aware of the success rate of first round HS pitchers... not the point i want to make. The point I want to make is that I think people on here are expecting Homer to be something he's not. Sort of like Adam Dunn. Some fans just can't appreciate what they are. Homer is a work in progress. He's got some growing to do. Some learning, some adjustments to make. He's not going to flat out dominate every game, every time. Even the best pitchers have one they wish they could call a mulligan on every now and then. But he has potential. And seemingly he has a lot of it. So lets call it for what it is - a guy who may be putting it together.

Someone pointed to his secondary stats, which are extremelly telling to me.
The walk rate is down. The K rate is about the same. The k/bb ratio has, at this point, doubled. The hit per 9 is down. Granted we are still a small sample size, and enthusiasm should probably be tempered. But if he can stay at the current levels for 1/2 a season, I dont know how you can hold him down there any longer. And I dont know how you can't be excited about his status.

[lollipopcurve]

There is nothing yet to get excited about.

Live a little, tr.

[Aronchis]

It isn't easy to live knowing the Reds history. I did that last with Ty Howington and his awesome 2001 season. I was gunhoe in 2002 because I thought Howington would be a key part of the 2003 team. He pitched 2 good games before getting rocked in the next 2 in 02, and I never saw that Howington again as he was lost to shoulder trouble.

Why stop against the trend, unless you believe Jim Bowden was the cause of the pitching draft woes, then go right ahead and dream on, dream on, dream...........

[cincyinco]

It isn't easy to live knowing the Reds history. I did that last with Ty Howington and his awesome 2001 season. I was gunhoe in 2002 because I thought Howington would be a key part of the 2003 team. He pitched 2 good games before getting rocked in the next 2 in 02, and I never saw that Howington again as he was lost to shoulder trouble.

Why stop against the trend, unless you believe Jim Bowden was the cause of the pitching draft woes, then go right ahead and dream on, dream on, dream...........

I know what we all have come to expect regarding injuries to our pitching prospects(Howington, Gruler, Gardner, Pauly, etc) but Homer Bailey is NOT Ty Howington, nor should he be regarded as such. Just becuase it has happened to several or more of our other guys, doesn't mean it will happen with Homer. It might very well, but until then, I dont see why its a problem to get behind the guy. If he gets injured, that will in fact.. well.. suck. But i'm not going to let a hypothetical injury - or the odds - ruin my enjoyment of a good prospect in our system.

[dougdirt]

It still gets to me when people try to say "well with the Reds history...." Thats fine and all, but who is left from the last guy? Are the same coaches in place? Does Homer have the same mechanics? Those answers are, not many....no and no. Some of you can choose to be cautious, and thats fine. I choose to be very optimistic. If you want to express concerns, express them for guys like Votto, Szymanski, Rosales.....guys who are quite a bit older and are struggling, not a guy who is 19 and pitching well.

[flyer85]

I disagree. If Homer is close to the majors like the Reds were acting in spring, he should be having these types of games regularly.He should be dominating in High A if he is the stud they are selling him to be.

[cincyinco]

He should be dominating in High A if he is the stud they are selling him to be.

What is your defenition of dominating?

Was today's performance good enough?

If he gives up a few hits, is he not dominating?

I guess I'd like to know what everyone expects of a 20 year old kid who's still learning the neauances of the game...

[flyer85]

What is your defenition of dominating?

Was today's performance good enough?

If he gives up a few hits, is he not dominating?

I guess I'd like to know what everyone expects of a 20 year old kid who's still learning the neauances of the game...Phillip Hughes is a good example. I'd say a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale is dominating.

[Heath]

Judging by this thread - maybe its time for a JA picture right about now.

That seems to be the topic within a topic.

http://cdn-channels.netscape.com/gallery/i/a/alba/53322878.jpg

Carry on...

[cincyinco]

Phillip Hughes is a good example. I'd say a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale is dominating.

Okay, thats fine. But Phil Hughes comes with his own set of problems. Health.

In any case, and I'm not being sarcastic here... What is a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale? Perhaps I can be enlightened. :)

[traderumor]

Come on TR... you know as well as I do scouting isn't all about putting up nice statistical numbers. Its about projection too. Just becuase he hasn't put up the stat lines that you think are worthy, does not mean he doesn't have the ability to be a dominant #1 pitcher at MLB.

Yes the odds are against it. I am aware of the success rate of first round HS pitchers... not the point i want to make. The point I want to make is that I think people on here are expecting Homer to be something he's not. Sort of like Adam Dunn. Some fans just can't appreciate what they are. Homer is a work in progress. He's got some growing to do. Some learning, some adjustments to make. He's not going to flat out dominate every game, every time. Even the best pitchers have one they wish they could call a mulligan on every now and then. But he has potential. And seemingly he has a lot of it. So lets call it for what it is - a guy who may be putting it together.

Someone pointed to his secondary stats, which are extremelly telling to me.
The walk rate is down. The K rate is about the same. The k/bb ratio has, at this point, doubled. The hit per 9 is down. Granted we are still a small sample size, and enthusiasm should probably be tempered. But if he can stay at the current levels for 1/2 a season, I dont know how you can hold him down there any longer. And I dont know how you can't be excited about his status.
Because there is still an entire year of data showing mediocre performance. Today was his fifth start, of which he now has what, two dominating performances and 3 so-so. If he realizes the nebulous "potential," his performance will start to reflect that, correct? However, go ahead and hype away. As long as the Reds are realistic with what they have and do not believe it themselves, hyping a prospect can't hurt.

[tbball10]

I don't understand all the talk of the Reds' system being cursed. Nothing Homer Bailey has done, or will ever do, is a result of Howington, Gruler, Gardner, Pauly or any other injured Reds' pitching prospect. Homer has been very consistent this year, and I expect him to have a great season, although I'm not going to kill myself if his ERA gets close to 4 like some people on here may do. Most importantly he needs to stay healthy, and keep progressing, because he has serious Major League stuff. Those of you who aren't "excited" about him, obviously have not seen him pitch in person. Because I saw him dominate the Major League Pirates in ST this year for about 3 innings, and it was enough to make any Reds fan very excited about what kind of pitcher Cincinnati will have in a couple years.
Great start for Homer, and let's hope for more to come!!

[Betterread]

Today's performance is really encouraging. I hope to see Bailey go at least 5/6 innings in 4-5 more starts, then gradually see if he can stretch out to 6/7 innings consistently. He is definitely progressing the way the Reds have mapped out his development. If you don't want to take my word for it, talk to player development people in the organization who express optimism, not disappointment regarding Bailey. Casual fans that cannot see his improvement come across as willfullly ignorant.

[membengal]

Judging by this thread - maybe its time for a JA picture right about now.

That seems to be the topic within a topic.

http://cdn-channels.netscape.com/gallery/i/a/alba/53322878.jpg

Carry on...

I happily take credit for the topic within a topic (though not with a pic), probably my only worthwhile contribution to this site in the year and a half I have sullied it with my presence...

[OnBaseMachine]

Jessica again::D

http://www.cfox.com/shared/corus_content/cfoxfm/images/general_content/jessica-alba-0105-003.jpg

[Aronchis]

A Homer Bailey gem then debauchery thereafter, what a thread;)

[traderumor]

I don't understand all the talk of the Reds' system being cursed. Nothing Homer Bailey has done, or will ever do, is a result of Howington, Gruler, Gardner, Pauly or any other injured Reds' pitching prospect. Homer has been very consistent this year, and I expect him to have a great season, although I'm not going to kill myself if his ERA gets close to 4 like some people on here may do. Most importantly he needs to stay healthy, and keep progressing, because he has serious Major League stuff. Those of you who aren't "excited" about him, obviously have not seen him pitch in person. Because I saw him dominate the Major League Pirates in ST this year for about 3 innings, and it was enough to make any Reds fan very excited about what kind of pitcher Cincinnati will have in a couple years.
Great start for Homer, and let's hope for more to come!!The start that the Pirates are off to is not indicating a major league team :evil:

Of course, some value objective performance indicators over personal anecdotal evidence that often has the problem of subjectivity, esp. when trying to evaluate the context of "dominate" from a visual perspective during a ST game of a really bad offensive team.

Why is it so wrong to set a legitimate standard of an ERA in the 2s, or at worst the low 3s, a WHIP under 1, a K rate of at least one per inning since we're talking about a power pitcher, and a walk rate around 2 per 9 for someone being touted as a future ace? Is that an unreasonable performance standard? Or is all we do is say "yea, but you gotta see his stuff," and fold our hands and start praying. It seems to me if there's stuff, there will be performance. If not, there isn't "stuff," whatever that means, at least that's going to do our favorite team any good, .

[traderumor]

Today's performance is really encouraging. I hope to see Bailey go at least 5/6 innings in 4-5 more starts, then gradually see if he can stretch out to 6/7 innings consistently. He is definitely progressing the way the Reds have mapped out his development. If you don't want to take my word for it, talk to player development people in the organization who express optimism, not disappointment regarding Bailey. Casual fans that cannot see his improvement come across as willfullly ignorant.

Appeal to authority, an authority with the Reds org. track record on developing pitching talent? That's rich. And then coupling that with a call of ignorance to those still skeptical about Bailey's chances of fulfilling the great expectations many are placing on his back? That is some funny stuff.

[dougdirt]

TR....the past is just that....the past. The same people arent in place. You can say history this and history that, but the same people are not there. So pretty much its just a faulty statement to say it wont happen or isnt likely to happen because the past Reds havent done well with it.

[traderumor]

TR....the past is just that....the past. The same people arent in place. You can say history this and history that, but the same people are not there. So pretty much its just a faulty statement to say it wont happen or isnt likely to happen because the past Reds havent done well with it.So the Reds replaced each and every person in development? No holdovers? All new philosophies, both mental and mechanical? I know there hasn't been that much turnover. Hopefully, the main folks have been dumped, but to expect that the track record is suddenly wiped clean with an owner and GM that have been on the job for a few months? Come on, Doug. While there have been some pleasant changes thus far, you know there has not been enough time to churn out all the bad apples.

[dougdirt]

No they didnt replace everyone, but Bailey isnt working with everyone. Mental has what to do with having arm injuries? I think pitch counts are a very good idea, and well they obviously werent in place with guys like Howington, where Bailey is at a very strict 90 pitch count this year. I mean who was the last young Reds pitcher to get hurt? Gardner....a year and a half ago? Surely some of the same guys are in place along the line somewhere, but just as much as you want to believe something bad is coming, you need to see that the same chance is that nothing is going to happen.

[Betterread]

So the Reds replaced each and every person in development? No holdovers? All new philosophies, both mental and mechanical? I know there hasn't been that much turnover. Hopefully, the main folks have been dumped, but to expect that the track record is suddenly wiped clean with an owner and GM that have been on the job for a few months? Come on, Doug. While there have been some pleasant changes thus far, you know there has not been enough time to churn out all the bad apples.

That's a broad generalization, and a shallow one, I suspect. Do you know the names of all of these employees? If you feel that the Reds organization is that mediocre, why do you support the parent team?
I don't need an answer to these questions, I just think you are unaware of how negative and pessimistic your viewpoint is.

[MikeS21]

What is a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale? Perhaps I can be enlightened.
I, too, am a little perplexed. This is a new one for me as well. What is a DOM 4 or 5 start on Shandler's scale?

My biggest knock on Bailey is that Homer's ERA shows how erratic he truly is. You can argue the validity of ERA as an indicator of a pitcher's ability all you want, but a true ace will have a low ERA because he is not allowing baserunners. Homer's ERA doesn't strike me as a true ace material.

Last year, at low A, Homer's ERA was well over 4.00. At the SAME level, a 19 year old Josh Beckett had an ERA of 2.12 (in the same league Homer pitched in). This year, Homer finally has gotten his ERA down to 3.08 at High-A. Beckett, at High-A (Florida State League - same as Bailey) in 66 innings had an ERA of 1.23. Beckett then went to AA, pitched 74 more innings and posted a 1.82 ERA at AA. When Bailey starts putting up Beckett-like numbers, and can sustain them over the length of an entire season, then I'll get excited. Felix Hernandez- the Seattle phenom - had an ERA of 2.74 in 92 innings at High A (He was 19 years old). Matt Cain of the Giants had a 1.86 ERA in 73 innings at High A (He was 19-20 at the time).

To compare to current Reds pitchers, Aaron Harang had a 3.32 ERA in 157 innings in High-A. Claussen, over a two season span, pitched 108 innings at High-A and posted a 2.92 ERA. But even Elizardo Ramirez put up a 3.78 ERA in 157 innings in the FSL. Now, to be fair those three were probably 20 or 21 when they pitched at High-A, but Bailey will be turning 20 in just a couple of weeks, and I seriously doubt that on his 20th birthday, he'll suddenly turn in to Cy Young. A true ace at High A ought to have an ERA that hovers right around the 2.25 mark

Whenever I get too giddy about Homer's performances, I remind myself that even Dave Williams posted a sub-3.00 ERA and K'd 193 in A-ball.

[dougdirt]

MikeS21, I think the thing is that Bailey is not being allowed to pitch completely how he wants to pitch. His game the other day was the first time all season they told him to go out and throw his fast ball first and look what he did. That means all season prior, he had been working with his lesser pitches. Homer is still developing his secondary pitches, and they are coming along well.

[traderumor]

That's a broad generalization, and a shallow one, I suspect. Do you know the names of all of these employees? If you feel that the Reds organization is that mediocre, why do you support the parent team?
I don't need an answer to these questions, I just think you are unaware of how negative and pessimistic your viewpoint is.I'll answer them anyhow. Honestly, my support of the Reds has nothing to do with the quality of the organization. Like many, when I first started paying attention, the BRM was in full bloom. I am a fan for life, regardless of who is in charge, but then that really has nothing to do with nothing, unless one simply chooses their sports teams like stocks.

Knowing names of certain employees really has no bearing on making a rather simple evaluation of the state of the Reds org., which as I already mentioned, has not had the new regime in place long enough to make too many sweeping changes. There were several moves made after Krivsky was hired, but most of the key employees were retained in some capacity. The coaching staffs were essentially already in place. But you do have me caught in one point--I have not done an organizational chart and an evaluation of each and every employee.

I only have about five years running of a barren pitching development program to go on and consistently one of the worst major league pitching staffs for a similar amount of time. Pardon me for being unimpressed by one performance from an ever increasingly hyped prospect being developed by an organization still bragging about Tom Browning. I hope as much as anyone that Homer lives up to the expectations. But do I have to make him into something contrary to the evidence thus far to hold out that hope? Or would it be better to say something along the lines of "wow, hopefully this is a sign of dramatic improvement and not just a night where he was on"?

[CTA513]

Homer Bailey stole my lunch box on tuesday. :angry:

[toledodan]

Jessica again::D

http://www.cfox.com/shared/corus_content/cfoxfm/images/general_content/jessica-alba-0105-003.jpg





can you say wallpaper!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

[OnBaseMachine]

Bailey Cruises Through Tigers

People have been wondering when things are going to click for Reds pitching phenom Homer Bailey, and yesterday they did.

The high Class A Sarasota righthander threw six hitless innings and had nine strikeouts but got a no-decision as Sarasota defeated Lakeland 2-0.

"One of those days that we all lay in bed and think about where everything clicks," Sarasota pitching coach Ed Hodge said. "If not for the pitch count, who knows what he would have accomplished?"

After going 8-4, 4.43 with a 125-62 strikeout-walk ratio in 104 innings last season for low Class A Dayton, Bailey has focused on improving his changeup. He has a mid-90s fastball and a 12-to-6 curveball that could be considered a 70 on the 20-to-80 scale. Last night, he had a third weapon in his arsenal.

"Best changeup I have seen him have yet. When you are going 93-97 in A-ball, you don’t need a heck of a lot more to dominate," Hodge said. "He commanded the changeup, and it is something he has worked extremely hard on. He has really bought into and knows it is something he has got to have."

Bailey was a first-round pick in 2004 out of LaGrange (Texas) High and was Baseball America’s High School Player of the Year. He has been ranked as the Reds' No. 1 prospect the last two years, and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation in the big leagues.

"The biggest thing with a guy that throws that hard is to have the change near the plate," Hodge said. "A power pitcher becomes more of a power pitcher when he develops a change."

--MATT MEYERS

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/261164.html