Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds

[MasonBuzz3]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.

[Falls City Beer]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.

BP only giving the Cards 31% of making the postseason? That's nuts. The Cards are certainly not improved over last season, but they're also not that much worse.

I really, really don't think the Brewers have a 46% chance for the postseason. I'd say 20% chance is much more realistic.

Reds seem about right to me.

[Tommyjohn25]

Given my expectations of the club before the season started, I'll take that percentage as a compliment.

[vaticanplum]

Poor Pirates.

[Blimpie]

Poor Pirates.Funny how the Marlins have but one more win than the Pirates--yet, the Marlins have almost a 15% better chance of making the playoffs.

[oneupper]

Since 4 out of 16 teams MUST make the playoffs, 25% would be "even money", that is if all teams were equal.

31% isn't that much of a compliment to the REDS. I would label it as an insult to the Cards, though.

[pedro]

I think the reds were 1000-1 before the season started

current 2006 World Series odds
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New York Yankees 6-1 Los Angeles Dodgers 40-1
St. Louis Cardinals 7-1 San Francisco Giants 40-1
Boston Red Sox 8-1 Texas Rangers 50-1
Chicago White Sox 12-1 Arizona Diamondbacks 75-1
Houston Astros 12-1 Baltimore Orioles 75-1
LA Angels of Anaheim 12-1 Cincinnati Reds 75-1
Atlanta Braves 15-1 Detroit Tigers 75-1
Cleveland Indians 15-1 Milwaukee Brewers 75-1
Oakland Athletics 15-1 Toronto Blue Jays 75-1
Chicago Cubs 25-1 Washington Nationals 75-1
Florida Marlins 25-1 Seattle Mariners 100-1
Minnesota Twins 25-1 Colorado Rockies 125-1
Philadelphia Phillies 25-1 Pittsburgh Pirates 125-1
New York Mets 30-1 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 250-1
San Diego Padres 30-1 Kansas City Royals 500-1

[Reds Nd2]

BP only giving the Cards 31% of making the postseason? That's nuts. The Cards are certainly not improved over last season, but they're also not that much worse.

I really, really don't think the Brewers have a 46% chance for the postseason. I'd say 20% chance is much more realistic.

Reds seem about right to me.

The PECOTA-adjusted version shows the Cards at %41, the Astro's at %36, the Reds at %25, the Pirates at %.44951, and the Brewres at %50. Seems someone loves the Brewers and loathes the Pirates.

[IslandRed]

That's a fun report, and I've referred to it many times. It's all stats-driven and computer simulated, so no one's subjectivity is involved. But it's a lot more meaningful in August than April. Small sample sizes, regression to the mean and all that.

[Reds Nd2]

I think the reds were 1000-1 before the season started.


My guess is they will be there again before all is said and done.