Merged: Panic Time? / Do you think this is the beginning of the end?

[bomarl1969]

I know I haven't posted here in a while but should we be getting ready to fold our tents and quit riding this dream season thus far? I for one am sick of losing. I don't like the Bengals having a better season or a brighter future than the Reds. We need to make the playoffs. 4-6 in our last ten, I know I'm a worry wart and I'm freakin out but I have to vent.

This sucks. Where was our offense tonight? Jon Lieber, freakin Jon Lieber owns this team. When Dave Williams pitched the way he did tonight and the offense doesn't come up with at least 3 runs that is pathetic.

What is with this offense...this team needs a good kick in the ***

[GOREDSGO32]

Thyis team is playing so different now. Very dumb plays, bad errors, loss of offensive spark, loss of great pitching now (what happened to Claussen?) mostly the bullpen is just not improving.

What are we supposed to do? There's no quick fix in Triple A .. The Bats aredonig absolutely terrible. One of the few pitchers doing well, Hall got ROCKED last night ... Milachek is the only decent pitcher ...

Seems like we're in a rock in a hard place ... I think LaRue should have been traded at the start of the year .. he's doing terrible ... we need to make a move now to stop the bleeding ...

[RedsMan3203]

Just in case you don't remember...

Lieber is a former 20 game winner and a 17 game winner. He isn't a slouch of a pitcher.

He has a total of 117 wins in 11 seasons.... A Carrer ERA at 4.25... He is a good pitcher...... He was on top of his game tonight against our Hitters... It happens.

[RedsMan3203]

Make sure you jump off the wagon and roll...

[redsfan30]

Not even close to time to close up shop for the season. The offense is in a huge slump right now, basically from top to bottom. That won't last too much longer. During this slump the pitching for the most part has still been pretty good, especially the bullpen.

The offense could go right back to banging out hit after hit tomorrow, that's the nature of slumps....they come and go. As long as the pitching remains decent, eventually the offense will return and they'll get back to winning some baseball games.

Be patient.

[BCubb2003]

I wonder if the Phillies were saying, "Dave Williams, freakin' Dave Williams, is shutting us down."

[reds1869]

The sky is falling! Ahhhhhhh! We've actually lost a couple of games. Dunn struck out; that never used to happen, did it? Wow, people in this town are a little touchy. It isn't time to panic yet. The team is still in good shape--far ahead of what even the most optimistic among us would have projected. Bad streaks will happen, and at least in this one we've been within striking distance most of the time and pulled a few out we shouldn't have. Our fans need to take a deep breath and relish the fact that we will likely finish with our best record in half a decade.

[reds1869]

I wonder if the Phillies were saying, "Dave Williams, freakin' Dave Williams, is shutting us down."

Ha ha, that is what I thought when I got back from my out of town trip and saw the stats on TV. My first reaction wasn't anger that we lost, it was "holy cow, Dave Williams pitched a good game." It would figure that he got no run support. :)

[IslandRed]

What are we supposed to do? Suffer, I guess.

I mean, let's be real, there are reasons no one picked us to seriously contend for the postseason. The offense has been in a bit of a slump, but we'll still score a ton of runs. But the defense is subpar even with the major upgrade Phillips gave us, and the pitching is just... well, we knew it would be bad. Same for the farm system; except for Denorfia, we knew there wasn't any top-shelf talent anywhere near helping the big club.

So we're just seeing some of the inevitable regression to the mean following the over-our-head April. There's no quick fix, no miracle cure. I expect Krivsky will continue the roster makeover throughout the season, and some of the stickier situations (Griffey? First base?) will likely be resolved by the trade deadline or over the offseason. The one thing I didn't expect from him was to take over an organization that was bad in every respect but one -- major league hitters -- and get it into the 2006 playoffs.

[edabbs44]

Make sure you jump off the wagon and roll...

Nice quote...I completely agree. One game out of first and everyone wants to start the annual fire sale.

[TeamBoone]

No, I don't think so. They're just going through a little funk for some reason. It's not like they're getting blown out of the water in these games either. Freel and Dunn are both slumping and Aurilia will be back soon; same with Milton (if he pitches like he did before he went on the DL, that will help as well). They'll bounce back.

The Cards lost 4 games in a row last week!

[redsmetz]

I know I haven't posted here in a while but should we be getting ready to fold our tents and quit riding this dream season thus far? I for one am sick of losing. I don't like the Bengals having a better season or a brighter future than the Reds. We need to make the playoffs. 4-6 in our last ten, I know I'm a worry wart and I'm freakin out but I have to vent.

This sucks. Where was our offense tonight? Jon Lieber, freakin Jon Lieber owns this team. When Dave Williams pitched the way he did tonight and the offense doesn't come up with at least 3 runs that is pathetic.

What is with this offense...this team needs a good kick in the ***

There is an ebb and flow to a season. Day in, day out. Good pitching, weak hitting, spectacular hitting, poor pitching. All things in their time, as they say. This will be a tough season, but today was good because Dave Williams pitched a very good game. No shame there. And we had a chance even to the end.

There is an ebb and flow to a season.

[reds1869]

The one thing I didn't expect from him was to take over an organization that was bad in every respect but one -- major league hitters -- and get it into the 2006 playoffs.

Finally, some common sense. I am quite pleased with the way the organization is changing for the better. We are heading down the right path for the first time since the 90s. This is not the NFL, however, and we won't be seeing a miracle turnaround. The reds will make some noise just like in April but will follow it with rough spots. We should just sit back and enjoy the ride. Let's face it: we go to the park every night thinking we might win regardless of the opponent, and that is a huge change.

[GOREDSGO32]

No its not bandwagon .. don't call me that. It's just the team was playing above their head and now are falling back to earth and the weaknesses of the team are being more exposed now. Without the offense going on full cylinders, and great starting pitching ... the completely inept bullpen is exposed along with the fact we don't have great hitters with runners in scoring position, and we have TERRIBLE defense.

[redsmetz]

No, I don't think so. They're just going through a little funk for some reason. It's not like they're getting blown out of the water in these games either. Freel and Dunn are both slumping and Aurilia will be back soon; same with Milton (if he pitches like he did before he went on the DL, that will help as well). They'll bounce back.

The Cards lost 4 games in a row last week!

I wrote this in the Panic Time thread


There is an ebb and flow to a season. Day in, day out. Good pitching, weak hitting, spectacular hitting, poor pitching. All things in their time, as they say. This will be a tough season, but today was good because Dave Williams pitched a very good game. No shame there. And we had a chance even to the end.

There is an ebb and flow to a season.

[Falls City Beer]

It's not panic time. This team isn't going to win any more than 81 games as is. Which means losing 81.

[TeamBoone]

So we're just seeing some of the inevitable regression to the mean following the over-our-head April.

I hardly think it's time to throw in the towel.

But I think they need to 86 White in the BP and replace him with someone who's more consistent.

All in all, the pitching hasn't been too bad... Ramirez has been a pretty nice surprise and Williams certainly looked decent today (hopefully he's on an upward swing and today's performance wasn't just a fluke).

The offense is slumping a bit, but that will turn itself around; I sincerely believe that. All teams go through offensive slumps, even the very good ones.

[GOREDSGO32]

It makes it tougher to choose who is gone when Milton comes back. Honestly I think you repalce Milton into Ramirez's spot, move Elizardo to the Bullpen, then DFA White or Hammond.

[KronoRed]

I wonder if the Phillies were saying, "Dave Williams, freakin' Dave Williams, is shutting us down."
:lol:

Maybe he only pitches well for teams from Pennsylvania ;)

[edabbs44]

The main problem with the "beginning of the end" feelings is that Cincy had a great April and the common expectations went from cellar dwellers to WS contenders. Until BP and rotation help is acquired, I will not expect a miracle season. But the fans should relish the moment and get out there to show your support, since they have given us more already than anyone truly expected. And I won't count Wayne and Bob out, b/c they seem to actually care about the team. If a few arms are acquired, then this team can make some noise for long stretches of time. That's when the playoff talk can start.

[RedEye]

Everyone just needs to chill.

If you'd told me before the season that this team would start 23-14, heck if you told me they'd win 20 games by mid-May, I would have been ecstatic. We can't expect this team to go on playing .650 baseball all year because they simply don't have the talent level to do that. But do they have the talent level to play .550 ball? Yes, I think they do. In fact, if they only manage to stay at one game above .500 (63-62) for the rest of the year, they'll still win 86 games, which should make 2006 more interesting than past years. I also think they could better that by four wins or so. This will have more to do with luck than anything else

Call me a dreamer, but here are four ways I can imagine eeking out four extra wins:

1) A lucky bounce on a Brandon Phillips chopper late in the game wins a 4-3 decision late in the game against the Astros.
2) A bad call by an ump allows Ryan Freel to score late in a wild one against the Cubs.
3) A rain-out in the fifth gives Arroyo his 12th win on the year in August and keeps Narron from delving into an exhausted bullpen.
4) Dunn kicks around a ball in the outfield against the Indians and then makes up for it by hitting a grand slam two innings later.

You see? Four conceivable circumstances that, with our plucky (scrappy?) offense, put us in a position to go to the playoffs. I think this team has enough character to allow luck to take over. And as everyone knows, all good teams have this in common: the ball bounces their way once in awhile, and more than it bounces the other way.

Call me a crazy optimist, but I still think this team can go 67-58 over the next four and a half months, and this would put them at 90 wins, squarely in the wild card race. Barring an abysmal month, I see this team making things interesting until at least mid-August.

[harangatang]

My take on the Reds is that it is a 162 game season and anything can happen in between now and the last game of the season. All teams go through funks and will play badly for a period of time. Unfortunately the Reds lost tonight against the hottest team in baseball but there was something that impressed me. Even though the Reds got no-hit through 6 and 2/3 innings they still had a chance to win the ballgame in the Bottom of the 9th. They didn't have the walkoff HR tonight like they did against Washington but staying close with the hottest team impresses me. Even though the Reds have lost their first home series it's no time to panic, it's a long season, anything can happen.

[KronoRed]

This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end

Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end

[GOREDSGO32]

No one is complaining about the overall record and play of the team ... I didn't say that. But this is very well the type of skid that could balloon into a 7 or 8 game losing streak and suddenly a few games out of first. And yeah maybe if those things happened we get 4 extra wins, but you forget all the times the Reds have made big comebacks to win games too? Griffey's winning HR the other night, the late game big time rally a few weeks back ... you can't expect EVERYTHING to go your way, in the end luck and breaks come out pretty much even and how you play wins out.

[Caveat Emperor]

I'd say there's going to be no "beginning" or "end" for this team. They're going to be streaky and inconsistent because they're good enough to stay on top of anything.

It doesn't help matters much that they're being managed by a guy who can't figure out how to get his best 8 players in the lineup on a nightly basis. Narron wouldn't win a knothole championship if he can't figure out that Ken Griffey Jr. needs to be in the lineup nightly.

[captainmorgan07]

all teams go through bad stretches the good ones know how to respond to it we'll just have to see how we respond

[Col_ IN Reds fan]

I didn't watch the game tonight , but giving up 2 runs is not bad at all. This team will hit. A win Sunday will cool the jets somewhat.

[Betterread]

The offense is slumping a bit, but that will turn itself around; I sincerely believe that. All teams go through offensive slumps, even the very good ones.

I want to believe the Reds are a very good offensive team, but getting shut down completely by a rookie making his first ML start and by Jon Lieber is not something that happens to truly good offenses. This is not a good sign.

[Heath]

I'll take the record we have now. If there's an eight game losing streak, there's still above .500 - and with this club's inability to pitch, well, that ain't all bad.

If you want to hop off the wagon over the last two game, well, don't let the wagon wheels roll over you when you try to hop back on again.

Patience, folks, its only May.

[Heath]

I want to believe the Reds are a very good offensive team, but getting shut down completely by a rookie making his first ML start and by Jon Lieber is not something that happens to truly good offenses. This is not a good sign.

Jon Lieber's a former 20 game winner, but so was Wilbur Wood - so that argument probably wasn't valid. But Leiber's coming off a good year and a slow start. Plus, he's not pitching in the unfriendly confines of Citizens Bank Park.

Cole Hamels' gonna be a good one. No scouting report, live arm. Tough to win. Seems the Reds have been hitting some teams while hot.

Pirates, then the equally surprising Tigers. Make hay when the sun shines.

[TeamBoone]

I want to believe the Reds are a very good offensive team, but getting shut down completely by a rookie making his first ML start and by Jon Lieber is not something that happens to truly good offenses. This is not a good sign.

That would be an extremely talented rookie, which is why they brought him up at the age of 22.

Lieber pitched well, as did Williams. The Phillies only scored two runs after all.

And, yes, it is something that happens to truly good offenses.

[Chip R]

4) Dunn kicks around a ball in the outfield against the Indians and then makes up for it by hitting a grand slam two innings later.


Never happen because we all know Dunn cannot hit with runners in scoring position. ;)

Seriously, I would like to know why some of you believe that because the Reds have been playing as of late means that it is over. Do you believe that because this offense is not scoring like it did in April that it is over? The 27 Yankees could not keep up that pace. The 75 Reds could not either. Some people call it regressing to the mean. I call it the law of averages. Ryan Freel was getting on base 45% of the time in April. People wanted to elect him mayor. He was not going to do that all season long. Only guys with a needle in their keister get on base 45% of the time because the opposing team is so scared of them hitting a home run they walk them more often than not. Now Freel should not play every day because he is not hitting. Should we get rid of Phillips because he is not driving in 17 runs a week any more? Back in the first couple of weeks in April people wanted Aurilia to start at least half the time at 3rd because EE was throwing the ball away and looked lost at the plate. Now he is hitting the ball at an All Star level. He is also looking better in the field.

Newsflash: As much as you would like it to be, this is not the NFL. They play 162 games a year not 17. When the Bengals start playing again, you can live and die on every play because there is a full week where you do not have to even worry about it. Sure you can get excited when Jr. hits a walkoff HR and disappointed when Dunn strikes out with runners on base. But you will learn that every pitch, every at bat, every inning, every game is not do or die. The Reds have lost 2 in a row. that is approximately 1/81 of the season. They could just as easily win 5 in a row starting tomorrow. And you know what? There will be about 125 more games to go after that.

Could it be the beginning of the end? Sure it is possible but it is also possible that it is just a bump in the road. You are going to win a third of your games no matter how bad you are. Even the all time worst teams won 40 games. No matter how good you are, you are going to lose a third of your games. I know it is true because I saw the 1975 Reds lose 54 games. It is what you do with the other third that matters. You know when I am going to panic? When we lose our 54th game. I will know then that this team is not going to win 109 games then. But until then, I am going to put those 2 losses to the Phillies into that 1/3 of the losses we are supposed to have.

[toledodan]

Never happen because we all know Dunn cannot hit with runners in scoring position. ;)

Seriously, I would like to know why some of you believe that because the Reds have been playing as of late means that it is over. Do you believe that because this offense is not scoring like it did in April that it is over? The 27 Yankees could not keep up that pace. The 75 Reds could not either. Some people call it regressing to the mean. I call it the law of averages. Ryan Freel was getting on base 45% of the time in April. People wanted to elect him mayor. He was not going to do that all season long. Only guys with a needle in their keister get on base 45% of the time because the opposing team is so scared of them hitting a home run they walk them more often than not. Now Freel should not play every day because he is not hitting. Should we get rid of Phillips because he is not driving in 17 runs a week any more? Back in the first couple of weeks in April people wanted Aurilia to start at least half the time at 3rd because EE was throwing the ball away and looked lost at the plate. Now he is hitting the ball at an All Star level. He is also looking better in the field.

Newsflash: As much as you would like it to be, this is not the NFL. They play 162 games a year not 17. When the Bengals start playing again, you can live and die on every play because there is a full week where you do not have to even worry about it. Sure you can get excited when Jr. hits a walkoff HR and disappointed when Dunn strikes out with runners on base. But you will learn that every pitch, every at bat, every inning, every game is not do or die. The Reds have lost 2 in a row. that is approximately 1/81 of the season. They could just as easily win 5 in a row starting tomorrow. And you know what? There will be about 125 more games to go after that.

Could it be the beginning of the end? Sure it is possible but it is also possible that it is just a bump in the road. You are going to win a third of your games no matter how bad you are. Even the all time worst teams won 40 games. No matter how good you are, you are going to lose a third of your games. I know it is true because I saw the 1975 Reds lose 54 games. It is what you do with the other third that matters. You know when I am going to panic? When we lose our 54th game. I will know then that this team is not going to win 109 games then. But until then, I am going to put those 2 losses to the Phillies into that 1/3 of the losses we are supposed to have.


GREAT POST!

[BCubb2003]

The '75 Reds had a six-game losing streak and two four-game losing streaks.

From a previous episode of Random Thoughts: People who thought the Reds would win 70 will be upset if they win 80.

Still, these recent games are exposing the team's weaknesses, and they are different from the weaknesses we thought there'd be. The starting pitching is a pleasant surprise. The bullpen is about as bad as everybody expected.

It's the offense that has people puzzled and worried. Maybe this isn't the league-leading offense that will score six, seven, eight runs a night and try to outscore the pitching. I can understand if people are a little concerned.

[Larry Schuler]

Colorado, Arizona, and the Phillies have all came to town riding incredible winning streaks. Just bad timing for the Reds to face them.

[bomarl1969]

Sorry to rant again but I think this team is just too good to lay down like it has been. Yes I expect a postseason run...with Arroyo, Milton, and Harang I can even see us in the World Series. I'm not screaming fire sale or Narron is an idiot, but I am saying that this team needs a swift kick in the ***. I'm sick of losing and its been too long. We need that 6th championship in Cincy.

[Krusty]

Obviously people need to look at Houston the past two seasons and see how they were left for dead at this time during the season only to rebound and get in the playoffs.

The baseball season is a marathon.

[blumj]

I want to believe the Reds are a very good offensive team, but getting shut down completely by a rookie making his first ML start and by Jon Lieber is not something that happens to truly good offenses.
Yes, it is. All the time. Unless there's no such thing as a truly good offense. There's never been an offense in baseball that has made it through an entire season without being completely shut down by unlikely sources, and those two aren't even all that unlikely.

[Betterread]

Yes, it is. All the time. Unless there's no such thing as a truly good offense. There's never been an offense in baseball that has made it through an entire season without being completely shut down by unlikely sources, and those two aren't even all that unlikely.

After reading this I realize that I want a consistently good offense, which is not realistic. I was really optimistic about the Reds chances to win against those two pitchers, and they did not get it done. I wonder if ML rosters were allowed to be larger - say 10 players more - so you could carry 35 active players. Perhaps that would allow for players to get more days off if they were "off-form" or to give other players additional chances during a long season.

[PuffyPig]

It doesn't help matters much that they're being managed by a guy who can't figure out how to get his best 8 players in the lineup on a nightly basis. Narron wouldn't win a knothole championship if he can't figure out that Ken Griffey Jr. needs to be in the lineup nightly.

You can't play your best 8 every night.

Griffey wasn't sat because he's not one of our best 8. Comong off an injury, it's likely that he will need some rest from time to time. Last night was "time".

[RFS62]

We're getting much better performances from our starting pitching than we ever imagined.

We had Phillips catch fire his first turn around the league.

Two very unexpected outcomes.

If either or both stop, we're in trouble. If they continue, we compete.

[RedEye]

We're getting much better performances from our starting pitching than we ever imagined.

We had Phillips catch fire his first turn around the league.

Two very unexpected outcomes.

If either or both stop, we're in trouble. If they continue, we compete.

I agree about the pitching. It absolutely must continue. If Dave Williams can pull more 8-inning gems out of the 5th slot, we are better off than we ever thought.

I agree that Phillips caught fire the first time around, but I don't actually think he was the reason the Reds were winning during that stretch. He's not that elemental to our offense, although he helps. Rather, it was because we were getting the pitching AND a balanced offensive attack with players who worked the count top-to-bottom. We have savvy vets like Aurilia and Hatteberg take pitchers 8 or 9 pitches into each at bat, and I honestly think that is why the offense was so good early. Everyone else follows suit. When teams do this, it allows everyone, including whoever is the 'hot' player (Phillips or otherwise) to see better pitches because the pitcher wears down physically and mentally. Over the weeks, we've seen Dunn, FeLo, Kearns, EdE and Aurilia all get hot and take advantage of this.

Hamels' start was a case in point. Although we didn't hit him hard, our hitters worked him deep in to the count each time up (with the possible exception of the first inning when they saw his ridiculous change-up for the first time). The result? Five walks and some scoring opportunities on a night when the Reds hit almost nothing sharply. I think he had 90-100 pitches by the end of the fifth. Sometimes the best offense is to get a pitcher out of the game any way you can--and sometimes you can't do that by getting hits. Hamels is going to fool a lot of teams with his stuff, but I'd be surprised to see him fool the Reds again like he did in that first start.

Phillips had a hot streak, a 17 RBI week, yes, but this alone did not explain their hot start. Likewise, I don't think Phillips playing like a mortal 2B (.270?) the rest of the way out is going to doom our season. It is his defense that helps us the most. He's like Pokey with 20% more offense and 10% less range in the field. We have a lot of good players, and they will have hot streaks and slumps. That doesn't mean, however, that one slump is going to doom the Reds' offensive production.