Reds vs. Tigers game thread (5/21/2006)

[Cedric]

Another heartbreaking loss. Instead of losing two of three, the Reds should have swept this series.

Leadoff hitter on five times. Two times they failed to score with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out or less.

That's the kind of baseball team the Reds are built as. We better get used to this.

[Falls City Beer]

From where I sit, this is the first game that Narron's given away directly all season. Leaving in Harang and subbing the worst hitter on the squad (Valentin) for Larue just takes it.

[redsrule2500]

Another heartbreaking loss. Instead of losing two of three, the Reds should have swept this series.

Leadoff hitter on five times. Two times they failed to score with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out or less.

I still can't believe Dunn bunted there. Not a smart move at all.

Dunn would have struck out....there was a runner on.

[Jpup]

bunt? I hope Narron didn't call for that, although, I bet Marty was happy to see it. I would have brought Hatteberg up to face Jones in the 9th as well.

The Reds gave away several games this week.

[westofyou]

Dunn would have struck out....there was a runner on.
Thanks Rasputian, what's the lottery numbers tomorrow?

[oneupper]

The odds say that the Dunn bunt wasn't a good move (if it was Narron's call).

Win Expectancy 9th inning Zero Outs Man on First: 24%
Win Expectancy 9th inning 1 Out man on second: 20.8%

The desired outcome will lessen your probability of victory by 3.2%.

[OnBaseMachine]

Dunn would have struck out....there was a runner on.

Great post. :rolleyes:

Amazing that our best hitter in years continues to get bashed over and over.

[Falls City Beer]

The odds say that the Dunn bunt wasn't a good move (if it was Narron's call).

Win Expectancy 9th inning Zero Outs Man on First: 24%
Win Expectancy 9th inning 1 Out man on second: 20.8%

The desired outcome will lessen your probability of victory by 3.2%.

Narron looked second-rate there. How the hell do you execute poorly as a manager when you're playing by AL rules?

[oneupper]

This is another reason I don't like splitting up Dunn and Griffey (like in this lineup)...

When the big guys are up...play for the long ball.

When the small guys come around...do the "little" things.

[reds44]

Great post. :rolleyes:

Amazing that our best hitter in years continues to get bashed over and over.
He isn't our best hitter in years, but todays bashing is uncalled for.

[OldXOhio]

Dunn would have struck out....there was a runner on.

Just when I was starting to feel good again about having game threads back in the ORG :rolleyes:

[Falls City Beer]

Four games back.

[OnBaseMachine]

He isn't our best hitter in years, but todays bashing is uncalled for.

Who is then?

[Betterread]

I thought Dunn's bunt attempt was not to sacrifice but to try to get a hit - if he got it past Jones, he was on. It was a new wrinkle - and I liked the idea, but didn't like the execution of the idea. Dunn is really struggling right now - and the Reds need him to recapture his form.
Another good start for Harang - he's in form.

[OldXOhio]

Four games back.

118 games left.

[pedro]

Tough loss but a good baseball game for the most part. Good pitching and defense. Nice to see Lopez make a good play in the hole.

I'm not a big fan of Dunn bunting there but it almost worked.

[oneupper]

Just when I was starting to feel good again about having game threads back in the ORG :rolleyes:


Just going to have to raise the bar to 400 points...no, wait...that leaves ME out :(

[pedro]

I was pretty impressed with Brandon Inge's play at 3B. He's got a gun.

[Falls City Beer]

118 games left.

Well, the Reds were never going to win the division--118 games left or not. Most of the clippings I'm reading suggest that Krivsky's going to try to stay in this thing, but as the losses pile up, I wonder how long that stance can last. Krivsky strikes me as a fairly realistic guy, if nothing else.

[MrCinatit]

I've said this before: I don't expect the Reds to win the division. I really would be surprised to see them compete come the end of July.
However, I do have that same glimmer of hope I felt a couple years ago with the Bengals, when Marvin Lewis came aboard. There is a feeling of new blood here, and some changes have already been made which have given me more hope (Arroyo, the DFAs of Womack and Williams).
It will not happen this year. It might not even happen next year. But I have a feeling a contender can slowly be built out of this team.
Of course, cutting down on the stupid mistakes would help big time...but, baby steps.

[westofyou]

Well, the Reds were never going to win the division--118 games left or not. Most of the clippings I'm reading suggest that Krivsky's going to try to stay in this thing, but as the losses pile up, I wonder how long that stance can last. Krivsky strikes me as a fairly realistic guy, if nothing else.
221 Runs given up... it's a long, hard road.

[Aronchis]

Well, the Reds were never going to win the division--118 games left or not. Most of the clippings I'm reading suggest that Krivsky's going to try to stay in this thing, but as the losses pile up, I wonder how long that stance can last. Krivsky strikes me as a fairly realistic guy, if nothing else.

Especially with Arroyo cooling and the Lizard/Milton duo stinking up the back of the rotation. June will probably be the final countdown.

[flyer85]

The Tigers scored a winning run both days without any balls that were real hits. If the infield is back today then Polancos ball is a routine grounder.

[Falls City Beer]

Pyrite Buchholz is absolutely cuffing and stuffing one of the best offenses in baseball, by the by.

[Kc61]

I'm sure Dunn was bunting for a hit, tried to take advantage of the shift, bunt just wasn't that good. I think it was a bad play, but it's only one play.

The Reds young "stars" have got to perform better in key situations if they are ever going to lead this team to success. I'm principally talking about the two young star outfielders.

These guys are good ballplayers who put up some good numbers. But they don't seem to rise to the occasion in tight games like today.

There is only so much you can ask from secondary players. For the most part the Reds' secondary players do a good job. Phillips, EE, the Hatteberg/
Aurilia duo (although RA did not do well today). Lopez is very good, but not a middle of the order guy, Griffey helps but is clearly past his prime.

But our two young outfielders have not shown that they are winning players, guys who come through in tough spots.

[flyer85]

I thought Dunn's bunt attempt was not to sacrifice but to try to get a hit seeing as he squared he was likely was trying to do both

[flyer85]

Pyrite Buchholz is absolutely cuffing and stuffing one of the best offenses in baseball, by the by.is there a point?

[Falls City Beer]

is there a point?

I suppose a point similar to your starting an entire thread to Buchholz getting rocked the other day.

[westofyou]

although RA did not do well today

Or all year, let's call a spade a spade, RISP is an iffy stat.

2006

Rich Aurilia

.231 .250 .500 .750

Dunn

.159 .339 .523 .862

Kearns

.308 .420 .436 .856

[oneupper]

Reds Now 8-11 for the Month of May.

Next up Home Vs. Brewers and D'Backs and three game set at Wrigley to end the month.

The June schedule is killer, so I'd say the team should get at least 6 wins of those 9 to be in any kind of shape for June.

That said, I'd probably be happy if they were 3 or 4 games over .500 ending June.

[KronoRed]

Richie lines sharply to Inge at 3rd.

This is why we lost, failure in the clutch :p:

[Jpup]

to make us all feel better, the Cubs are losing 4-2 in the 7th. :D

[flyer85]

I suppose a point similar to your starting an entire thread to Buchholz getting rocked the other day.The point of the Buchholz thread was because some weren't buying the premise that his early success was built on nothing more than a unbeleivably low and unsustainable BABIP. It was an opportunity to point out that regression to the mean can hit home very hard. Buchholz will have some good starts and bad ones but as a pitcher he is very similar to EZ.

Him pitching well today is neither a shock or a surprise. His ERA and BABIP have normalized and he is now near what his true level really is.

[oneupper]

to make us all feel better, the Cubs are losing 4-2 in the 7th. :D

I hope they still suck when we hit Wrigley May 29-31.

[Aronchis]

The Cubs story is amazing. Circa 2003, the Cubs were considered the "next" Atlanta Braves. Prior,Wood and Zambrano would lead a dynasty of several WS visits and consistant dominance. I remember my intial readings of Redzone, people were proclaiming the Cubs "having the central wrapped up for the rest of the decade".

My, my, my, how things collapsed slowly, but surely for that franchise. Mercy............only the Cubs.

[37red]

When I watch the games this year I have more hope of them winning than expecting them to lose. They have more inspiration going into games than last year, and that's good. With more hope now and the good start this season they'll keep kicking longer and harder. I still look forward to seeing them in person, if any of you are giving up tickets, keep me in mind ;-)

[Falls City Beer]

The point of the Buchholz thread was because some weren't buying the premise that his early success was built on nothing more than a unbeleivably low and unsustainable BABIP. It was an opportunity to point out that regression to the mean can hit home very hard. Buchholz will have some good starts and bad ones but as a pitcher he is very similar to EZ.

Him pitching well today is neither a shock or a surprise. His ERA and BABIP have normalized and he is now near what his true level really is.

Really? Un-huh.

I see a rookie coming back from surgery, which naturally robs a guy of some excellent stuff (which I saw from him in the minors). Rookies struggle. That's what they do. The good ones bounce back, as Buchholz is today.

That's my only point: a little premature to write him off either way. He had great stuff at one time; it will be interesting if he recaptures even a majority of it; if he does, Buchholz's numbers will bury Ramirez's.

[CTA513]

to make us all feel better, the Cubs are losing 4-2 in the 7th. :D


Cubs are now up 6-4 in the 8th.

[oneupper]

The Cubs story is amazing. Circa 2003, the Cubs were considered the "next" Atlanta Braves. Prior,Wood and Zambrano would lead a dynasty of several WS visits and consistant dominance. I remember my intial readings of Redzone, people were proclaiming the Cubs "having the central wrapped up for the rest of the decade".

My, my, my, how things collapsed slowly, but surely for that franchise. Mercy............only the Cubs.


6-4 Cubs Now...I guess we just had to tear them down for them to react.

[oneupper]

If it's all about consolation, the Brewers are losing to a pitcher named "Boof"

[KronoRed]

to make us all feel better, the Cubs are losing 4-2 in the 7th. :D
You had to say something :angry:


;)

[Falls City Beer]

If it's all about consolation, the Brewers are losing to a pitcher named "Boof"

The Reds should be worrying about tussling with the Brew Crew; it seemed pretty clear from the start that that team was on a par with the Reds, not the Cards and (soon-to-be-Clemens-ed) Stros.

Brew Crew and the Reds are still definitely second-tier squads in this division.

[CTA513]

The Reds should be worrying about tussling with the Brew Crew; it seemed pretty clear from the start that that team was on a par with the Reds, not the Cards and (soon-to-be-Clemens-ed) Stros.

Brew Crew and the Reds are still definitely second-tier squads in this division.

Reds get to face Dave Bush tomorrow.


:help:

[Falls City Beer]

Reds get to face Dave Bush tomorrow.


:help:

It'll be interesting to see if they learned anything from facing him last time. He's hardly a worldbeater. (Unless you're the Reds, that is).

[oneupper]

It'll be interesting to see if they learned anything from facing him last time. He's hardly a worldbeater. (Unless you're the Reds, that is).

I'm happy we won't get Capuano.

[Falls City Beer]

I'm happy we won't get Capuano.

I agree. He's the only pitcher on that squad that commands genuine respect. He's a good one. I like Sheets, but he's the walking wounded. His career has been a mess.

[Falls City Beer]

Buchholz CGSO. Drops his ERA by a run.

[Heath]

I'm still confused by the off day Thursday in the middle of a homestand. Then in June, they have a 12:35 home game on a Wednesday, off day Thursday, evening game Friday at home.

Yet, on the west coast swing in late August, the Reds have a 12:35 get-away day and then be expected to play the next day in San Fran. At the end of that 10 game trip - they have a 4:05 in San Diego - trip home - to play 5:10pm the next day. One would think they could have put an off day in there some place.

In fact, there are 4 off days where the Reds are in the middle of a home stand.

Not real good scheduling in my opinion by MLB.

All I know is that the ORG thread seemed very civil today. Very good job Joseph on pbp.

[KronoRed]

All I know is that the ORG thread seemed very civil today. Very good job Joseph on pbp.Agreed :clap:

[reds44]

Yes OBM nad I didn't go at it today, I was very surprised.


Overall having the gamethread over here seemed like a good idea.

[reds44]

A guy I would target for CF is Devil Rays prospect Elijah Dukes. He is a great defensive center fielder, plus he is hitting .315/.412/.535 in Triple-A. He has an attitude problem, but the same was said about Phillips and he has turned OK so far.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?clubs=&leagues=&t=s_pla&q=dukes
What do you think it would take to get him?

This team needs a speedy good defensive center fielder.

[KronoRed]

The Rays will want pitching.

[oneupper]

What do you think it would take to get him?

This team needs a speedy good defensive center fielder.

We only really need one if we're going to play him...

[flyer85]

Really? Un-huh.

I see a rookie coming back from surgery, which naturally robs a guy of some excellent stuff (which I saw from him in the minors). Rookies struggle. That's what they do. The good ones bounce back, as Buchholz is today.

That's my only point: a little premature to write him off either way. He had great stuff at one time; it will be interesting if he recaptures even a majority of it; if he does, Buchholz's numbers will bury Ramirez's. Buchholz stuff is no better than Ramirez, if the surgery robbed him of that it really doesn't matter. He has a fastball that sits 88-91, a good curve, a little slider, and no changeup which will likely give him a problem against LH hitters. I never wrote him off I and said he was better than the Reds end of the rotation fodder but his early season success was mostly a mirage unless he seriously raised his K rate because almost no major league staters can sustain success with a sub 6 K rate and his was well below 5.

BTW, I went to the game when EZ and Buchholz pitched against each other and Taylor won 3-2 only giving up a two run HR to Dunn in the 6th(so I saw him on a good day). I saw two guys with identical fastballs, Buchholz had the better breaking ball, Ramirez the better changeup.

[M2]

Pyrite Buchholz is absolutely cuffing and stuffing one of the best offenses in baseball, by the by.

Bully for him, though I think the Rangers' offense is overrated. After today's game he's almost got his ERA back below John Koronka. With him it's just a matter of advanced scouting. Once teams get a good book on him, he's helpless. The beatings will pile up in the future.

[Falls City Beer]

Buchholz stuff is no better than Ramirez, if the surgery robbed him that it really doesn't matter. He has a fastball that sits 88-91, a good curve, a little slider, and no changeup which will likely give him a problem against LH hitters. I never wrote him off I and said he was better than the Reds end of the rotation fodder but his early season success was mostly a mirage unless he seriously raised his K rate because almost no major league staters can sustain success with a sub 6 K rate and his was well below 5.

He can get his K rate over six. Easily.

[flyer85]

He can get his K rate over six. Easily.Highly questonable, his stuff is very mediocre and his K rate in AAA last year was below 6(5.2). Not a good predictor at all for major league success. Ramirez had a higher K rate in AAA last year at 5.6

BTW, Buchholz has struggled with a low K rate throughout his minor league career.

[Falls City Beer]

Highly questonable, his stuff is very mediocre and his K rate in AAA last year was below 6(5.2). Not a good predictor at all for major league success. Ramirez had a higher K rate in AAA last year at 5.6

Ramirez also wasn't injured.

Last year was Ramirez at his very best; Buchholz at his worst.

[M2]

Highly questonable, his stuff is very mediocre and his K rate in AAA last year was below 6(5.2). Not a good predictor at all for major league success. Ramirez had a higher K rate in AAA last year at 5.6

BTW, Buchholz has struggled with a low K rate throughout his minor league career.

Exactly, unless Buchholz has improved off of his injury then he's in for a walloping.

[Falls City Beer]

BTW, Buchholz has struggled with a low K rate throughout his minor league career.

K rate's a great predictor, but it would be a little bankrupt to stop at it alone when guessing a pitcher's career. Will he be Clemens? No. Could he be Kirk Reuter? Most assuredly.

[reds44]

We only really need one if we're going to play him...
Yeah............?

[M2]

Could he be Kirk Reuter? Most assuredly.

Nope. Reuter's brilliant and literally did everything right outside of throw hard. You want an upside for Buchholz? Try Paul Wilson.

[flyer85]

Ramirez also wasn't injured.

Last year was Ramirez at his very best; Buchholz at his worst.Even when healthy he has had a low K rate and a troubling HR rate. Nothing in his minor league numbers predict future success. When I saw him in person he struck me as a guy who profiles to be more successful as a reliever.

Buchholz lack of a change was troubling. I saw him as Brett Myers with 3-4 mph less fastball and a curve that was not as sharp. Without the change to attack LH hitters he will be walking a tightrope to maintain a modicum of success as a starter.

[Falls City Beer]

Even when healthy he has had a low K rate and a troubling HR rate. Nothing in his minor league numbers predict future success. When I saw him in person he struck me as a guy who profiles to be more successful as a reliever.

Rueter's minor league K rate was way worse than Buchholz's. And yet.

There have been several guys with K rates around 6 who have had very nice major league careers. Would I want to build my minors with nothing but guys with K rates like that? No, but I see nothing so far that says he can't have a decent career, better than Paul Wilson's and Ramirez's.

[flyer85]

Rueter's minor league K rate was way worse than Buchholz's. And yet.

.and guys like Reuter are the exception rather than the rule. His success was built on an exceptional change used to attack RH hitters and get them out on their front foot. Buchholz has no similar pitch to attack LH batters.

[westofyou]

and guys like Reuter are the exception rather than the rule. His success was built on an exceptional change used to attack RH hitters and get them out on their front foot. Buchholz has no similar pitch to attack LH batters.
Kurt Reuter is the modern day Slim Sallee, a guy who can work both sides of the plate and get the hitters to feed the alleys.

[oneupper]

Yeah............?

Narron and Krivsky (while looking at Jr in the clubhouse)...

You tell him!
NO, you tell him!

[KronoRed]

Narron and Krivsky (while looking at Jr in the clubhouse)...

You tell him!
NO, you tell him!
Flip a coin and get it done.

[Ron Madden]

What do you think it would take to get him?

This team needs a speedy good defensive center fielder.

We have one.

We keep him in Louisville. ;)

[Falls City Beer]

BTW, Buchholz has struggled with a low K rate throughout his minor league career.

Buchholz minor league K rate is 7. Not great, but not prohibitive.

Just as a point of comparison. Maddux's minor league K rate: 5.67.

A respectable K rate is not a death sentence.

[Ron Madden]

We only really need one if we're going to play him...-

You have a point there.

[reds44]

lol, i was negged for my last post. Unreal.

:laugh:



fixed

What the heck?
I was negged for giving you back un-deserved neg rep?

Wow.

[WebScorpion]

What the heck?
I was negged for giving you back un-deserved neg rep?

Wow.
The only time I've ever been negged was for negging someone else. :rolleyes:
'of course I'll prolly get negged for this... :p:

[KronoRed]

The only time I've ever been negged was for negging someone else. :rolleyes:
'of course I'll prolly get negged for this... :p:
Ok..if you really want :evil: