How do Dayton and Louisville work in terms of prospects?

[RedEye]

I've really been enjoying this new forum, so thanks to everyone who has made it possible. I do have a question for those of you more versed in minor league info than I:

What is the difference between Dayton and Louisville in terms of prospect development? It seems that there are often players at Dayton (Bailey now, Dunn and Kearns in the past) who are already being talked about as 'major league ready' but have yet to move up to AAA Louisville. Is this just a function of age? If not, what are the factors involved? Does Louisville end up being more of a 'holding tank' for borderline players (Denorfia) and retreads while Dayton is where the promising young prospects go? Are Kriv and co. redefining these levels as we speak?

A lot of general questions, I know... but any answers would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!

[Danny Serafini]

Dayton is several steps below Louisville on the food chain, Chattanooga and Sarasota are in between. The players in Dayton are much younger and more undeveloped than those in Louisville. No one in Dayton is really "Major League ready". They may have one particular skill that is developed enough to match a Major Leaguer, but the rest of their game needs a lot of work. Louisville does end up being a holding tank for borderline guys, but that's more a function of the Reds poor farm system at that level than anything else. In a couple of years, when the guys in Dayton and elsewhere mature and develop Louisville will have legit prospects again.

[Red Leader]

Agreed with Danny.

Gulf Coast Reds and Billings (Rookie Leagues) - usually where high school draftees and other draftees go that need polish and instruction.

Dayton (Low A) - usually for advanced draftees and first year players. Players will repeat here if they struggle their first year, are injured, or seem "overmatched".

Sarasota (High A) - usually the next step after a prospect passes through Dayton. Making this step shows that they were able to make enough of an adjustment to the level of play to advance. Hopefully, they maintain their performance and can move up to the next test the following year.

Chattanooga (AA) - this is kind of the first major testing ground. If a player tears up AA at a decent age, you know he's a decent prospect and nearing major league ready. Some guys make the jump from AA to MLB, and those players are usually pretty good.

Louisville (AAA) - as you said, this is typically a "holding tank" for the major league team. Some free agents will sign and play for AAA just in case there is an injury at the major league level. Most major league teams won't want to "store" these players on their bench, so they send them to AAA to play everyday. Typically, you'd like your prospects to get some exposure to AAA before coming up to the majors, although as I said before, if they are extremely good, a few of them can skip AAA and go to the majors.

It's hard to compare a prospect who is 19 or 20 and in Dayton, to a prospect who is 24 or 25 and in Louisville. Although the 24/25 year old in Louisville has more of a track record and you might be better able to guage their ceiling a little better. Lots of kids perform well in Low A and High A and then fall apart in AA, unable to make adjustments as they go up the ladder.

[RedEye]

Thanks so much for the in-depth explanations. That clears it up for me.

[TOBTTReds]

It seems that there are often players at Dayton (Bailey now, Dunn and Kearns in the past) who are already being talked about as 'major league ready'

Homer Bailey is at AA right now actually. He was at Dayton last year, and Sarasota this season until this past week.

[redsmetz]

Red Leader - excellent breakdown on the minor league levels for the Reds. Just a couple of thoughts.

I think we're going to see less and less of guys making the jump from AA to the ML level under Krivsky and I think he's going to prove right being patient. Your mention of AAA Louisville as a place for "spare parts" will continue to some degree - some here call those players AAAA players - but I think we'll see a day when we'll have actual bonafide prospects playing at AAA and just waiting to get called up. Certainly in today's environment, you'll continue to have guys biding time waiting to get back to the big leagues there, but I'm hoping for the day when all the levels are stocked with good prospects.

[Mario-Rijo]

Also Louisville (and Triple-A in general) do have some guys who need some fine tuning but in general it's a "holding tank". So there is in fact some instruction but very little it's extremely advanced, just sharpening up a pitch or getting some AB's vs. some borderline MLB arms to sharpen your batting eye to the higher level that sort of thing.

[Marc D]

Anyone care to give a breakdown of what age is appropriate for which level? I often see people discussing prospects and say he's old/young for that league but I'm not super clear on what the parameters are.

Great thread btw.

[dougdirt]

Rookie- 17-19
Low A- 18-20
A+ 19-21
AA 20-22
AAA 21-24

If you are in a league and a little bit older than that listed, you are probably a little old for the league. The lower numbers are usually for the top teir prospects.

[Scrap Irony]

That's a bit low, IMO. Most good high school prospects are, as DD stated, at the lower end of the age scale, but, by and large, other prospects (and especially college-aged draftees) are a couple years older and progress much more quickly through the ranks.

Drew Stubbs, for example, is quite a bit older than 19, having gone through three seasons at Texas. He will, however, move up one rung at a time (or possibly two) and hit the majors sometime between 23 and 25. (Assuming, of course, he progresses properly and no injuries sideline him.)

[dougdirt]

Well Stubbs is 21 right now....but your first year doesnt ever really count. He will probably be at least in Dayton next year, maybe even Sarasota at the age of 21/22 and he will be right on target. Newly drafted guys dont fit into the age brackets because they are usually assigned to rookie/low A teams just to get used to professional baseball, but the next season the chains usually come off and they slide right in.