sporting news take on the trade

[REDREAD]

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=108280

So this is the Reds' big trade?
July 13, 2006

As a native of Cincinnati, the Reds-Nationals eight-player swap is the kind of deal that only can happen on an afternoon when I have the following conversation:

Co-worker: Are you a Reds fan?


Me: I was frustrated with the previous ownership group, but as long as they can make it past this deadline without doing anything stupid, I'll be OK.

Oops.

It wasn't more than 30 minutes later that the Reds sent Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner to the Nationals for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris and Daryl Thompson.

The initial reaction was shock. After hearing what the Reds sent to the Nats, many assumed the other gigantic shoe dropping in this deal would be Alfonso Soriano. Is there anything further from Soriano than the package of players the Reds received?

There is no doubt the Reds' bullpen is bad. We're talking XFL bad. Carl Lewis singing the national anthem bad. So as far as the bullpen goes, the team is undeniably better thanks to Majewski and Bray. The skipper wants to see you, Esteban Yan.

Kearns' role in the deal is what should perplex most baseball fans. Of all the trade rumors in the past three seasons -- and rumors should be taken with a grain of salt -- Kearns was associated with far greater names than Majewski.

Anyone, Clayton included, is a defensive upgrade over Lopez for the Reds, but at what cost? Lopez is 10 years younger than Clayton and 12 months removed from being an All-Star.

Don't worry, at least the Reds are familiar with Thompson, who is currently pitching in Single-A. Reds team doctor Timothy Kremchek performed shoulder surgery on him last year.

The trade should be equally vexing to fans of the Nationals. Wasn't this supposed to be the one-stop shop for contenders this season? Why are they acquiring bats like Kearns and Lopez while they're allegedly shopping Soriano?

GM Jim Bowden is doing his best to turn the Nationals into the Reds East. Jose Guillen, a player Bowden acquired in Cincinnati, is in D.C. Even Barry Larkin was in town. Now he adds three more of his own in this deal.

The players headed to Cincinnati are not without talent, but if this is the Reds' big move to make a push in the NL central, I'm guessing Cards GM Walt Jocketty is in his office having himself a nice chuckle, realizing he won't have to do anything drastic to keep the division.

[registerthis]

Just the latest in a seeming torrent of articles ripping this trade--and rightly so.

[Unassisted]

And I hope we bookmark this article so that we can laugh at it in September. Why can't we assume until proven otherwise that Krivsky pushed the right button? :rolleyes:

[reds44]

:sleep:

[reds1869]

And I hope we bookmark this article so that we can laugh at it in September. Why can't we assume until proven otherwise that Krivsky pushed the right button? :rolleyes:

I agree. This move addressed our biggest need. People whine about the bullpen, but then moan about who we trade to get relievers. Newsflash: you have t trade value to get value. We are obviously trying to contend. Any team dealing with us knows that and good--even above average--players will not come easily.

[b_combs23]

I dont think anyone is arguing that the trade helped our bullpen. I personally like all the players we got in the trade. I think we should have been able to get them a little cheaper. Lets wait until September and I hope they turn out great but we still should have gotten more. According to some we should help the bullpen at all costs. Maybe we can trade Bronson and Harrang to pick up some more average middle relief.

[REDREAD]

And I hope we bookmark this article so that we can laugh at it in September. Why can't we assume until proven otherwise that Krivsky pushed the right button? :rolleyes:

Sadly, I think we will be crying in September. I do hope I'm wrong, but I think by then we'll realize that we overpayed for two nice young relievers that don't have nearly the market value of Kearns and Lopez.

The Reds pretty much have to make the playoffs this year in order for this trade to look good. I believe Team Clark's estimate that LaRue is gone before the end of the month (makes a lot of sense).. so we'll enter the offseason with no trading chips and a lot of holes to fill.

Wayne just maxed out his credit card at Bowden's casino. I hope it works out.

[SeeinRed]

I'm sure its been said a million times on this board about this trade, but bats are much easier to get than decent arms. I think that, for some reason, people are really over valuing Lopez and Kearns. Don't get me wrong, they are solid players, but not super stars. I would even say that the chances of Kearns becoming a super star are quite slim. I would even say the same about Felipe. He had a good year last year, but to expect him to be as good as he was last year is just not plausible. I hope I'm wrong about that just because I want Lopez and Kearns to have great careers.

On the Nationals side though, I love the points made in this article about JimBo. Where in the world is he going with this team? It is very similar to what he did in Cincinnati. Offense only goes so far. Everybody wants to say he got the best part of the deal, which if you just want to consider where the players are talent wise right now you'd probably be right, but the pieces just don't fit when JimBo is involved. I trust what Wayne is doing, but only time will tell.

[REDREAD]

On the Nationals side though, I love the points made in this article about JimBo. Where in the world is he going with this team? .

I think Bowden is preparing for full rebuild mode. At this point, he needs to increase the amount of talent on his team, regardless of position. An article said that Bowden initially targeted Encarcion (despite the fact that they already have Zimmerman at 3b).

Kearns and Lopez give Bowden a lot of flexiblity. He can keep them or try to trade for something better. Wagner was a good flyer to take as well (a longshot, but a good throw in, maybe a change of scenery/coaching will help).

If nothing else, Kearns and Lopez give the Nationals some legitimate major leaguers to man the team if the team decides to unload some other vets. Not bad, considering it only cost the Nationals two bullpen arms. (One of which has been rode hard, the other which has only been up in the majors for something like 3-4 weeks).

[registerthis]

And I hope we bookmark this article so that we can laugh at it in September. Why can't we assume until proven otherwise that Krivsky pushed the right button? :rolleyes:

I'm not making an assumption when I say that Kearns and Lopez are worth more than Bray and Majewski.

If a RZ poster had proposed this trade, it would have been laughed off the board.

[paulrichjr]

Does anyone really believe that Bowden with his love for ex-Reds would not have done this deal for far less or would not have thrown in a top prospect to get it done. WayneK moved to fast in my opinion. 1 week might have and a little bluffing might have made this deal look a lot better for the Reds.

[redsfanmia]

Does anyone really believe that Bowden with his love for ex-Reds would not have done this deal for far less or would not have thrown in a top prospect to get it done. WayneK moved to fast in my opinion. 1 week might have and a little bluffing might have made this deal look a lot better for the Reds.
One more week and the Reds could be 8 to 10 games out of first with the old bullpen. Its a great move IMO. Kearns is an average player who is not dedicated enough to be good and Lopez is an above average offensive short stop with many defensive problems. We got two very live young arms to help in the bully now, a good defensive shortstop who offensively isnt horrible, and a quality prospect arm and oh yeah saved a million dollars to boot. We here tend to think too much of our players and really are not in touch with their real trade values.

[SeeinRed]

I think Bowden is preparing for full rebuild mode. At this point, he needs to increase the amount of talent on his team, regardless of position. An article said that Bowden initially targeted Encarcion (despite the fact that they already have Zimmerman at 3b).

Kearns and Lopez give Bowden a lot of flexiblity. He can keep them or try to trade for something better. Wagner was a good flyer to take as well (a longshot, but a good throw in, maybe a change of scenery/coaching will help).

If nothing else, Kearns and Lopez give the Nationals some legitimate major leaguers to man the team if the team decides to unload some other vets. Not bad, considering it only cost the Nationals two bullpen arms. (One of which has been rode hard, the other which has only been up in the majors for something like 3-4 weeks).


I see your point, but just having talent is only half of the equation. I does have to be at the right positions. The other problem is that Kearns and Lopez aren't the type of players you build a franchise around. Yeah, they are affordable now, but for how long?

I guess the puzzling thing to me is the fact that the trade was a get better now trade for the nationals. They are clearly in need of rebuilding, but trading a couple young arms, bullpen or starter doesn't matter, is quite questionable. Pitching is what creates winning teams, not a potent offense. We've all seen that up close.

We know from his years in Cincy that JimBo's idea of rebuilding is exactly what is going on in Washington right now. I didn't work here because the Reds are not the Yankees, and it won't work in Washington. JimBo should have went after more minor league talent IMO, but thats just me. Thats why he is paid to be a GM and I'm sitting here writing this. We'll see, but you know what kind of shape Jimbo left the Reds farm system in, I don't see Washington making out any better.

[MaineRed]

2-0.

[reds44]

2-0.
:thumbup:

And a team that had lost 8-9 before the trade, and looked like it was prime for a collapse.

It may still collapse, but we have played good ball outside of the Standridge mishap yesterday.

[BUTLER REDSFAN]

majewski hasnt pitched in a week also so hopefully just a little rusty

[BUTLER REDSFAN]

oops think i posted on wrong thread

[bottom_feeder]

One more week and the Reds could be 8 to 10 games out of first with the old bullpen. .

The Reds should've stalled for a week so they wouldn't feel compelled to make this trade. :beerme:

[Unassisted]

I'm not making an assumption when I say that Kearns and Lopez are worth more than Bray and Majewski.

If a RZ poster had proposed this trade, it would have been laughed off the board.I view this trade through the lens of the standard disclaimer on in investment advertisements: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. To the Reds benefit, it was proven true with Phillips and Arroyo. So I figure there must be something to it.

Krivsky has the benefit of access to information and analysis that aren't publicly available. I mean no disrespect when I say that he quite literally knows more than we do. We can't judge the choices he makes by what we know.

Presumably, his predecessors had the same information. But their past performance led all of us to dread their future results.

I know the K-man's not going to be right every time, but to me his initial success has earned him the benefit of the doubt. I look forward enthusiastically, something I haven't done in many years of following this club, to seeing if he's right.

[smith288]

Ill add this. The trade stunk and depressed me even while I was on the beach in sunny Holden Beach North Carolina... :(