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View Full Version : So, 7 games after the All-Star Break....Arroyo and Harang's chances???



crazybob60
07-21-2006, 03:02 AM
Ok, so we are 7 games into the 'second-half' of the season and the majority of the starting pitchers for each team have gone at the very least once.

Based upon their first half stats and what you have seen out of the gate in the second half, what do you think Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang's final record for this season will be and what kind of ERA and strikeout total do you think they will amass? Also, even if they both pitch their very, very, very best, do you believe either one of the two pitchers has a shot as winning the Cy Young or does someone like a Roy Oswalt or Jason Schmidt or maybe even a Tom Glavine that are all more household names win that award because they are more recognized pitchers?

Here's my take on this:
I personally don't think either one of the two pitchers will win the Cy Young as much as we would like, but I do see both of them challenging for their respective category titles (Arroyo in ERA and Harang in Strikeouts). Based upon that alone and not their records, I bet both of them will finish in the top ten in the Cy Young voting. Now I see Harang finishing stronger this season than Arroyo for some odd reaon and although I see Arroyou either finishing first or second in ERA, I bet he ends up with a record of 17-10. I then see Harang either finishing second or third in Strikeouts, and then with a record of 19-11. Now that is pretty good especially for some of Cincinnati's starting pitching. And then for the Cy Young, I would imagine that Harang would garner more votes than Arroyo and that Harang would finish maybe 3 or 4 possibly even 2nd if some of the voters would sway in his direction. Arroyo on the other hand would finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 9 in my opinion. Now when was the last time two Reds starting pitchers finished the season with such formidable records????

Well I will look it up here in a bit once I get done with some laundry and I will also try and figure out when the last time two Reds, regardless of them being a starter or not, finished in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting, unless someone can beat me to the punch.

Just thought I would throw these questions out there, someone is bound to be a stat nut like me and wonder these types of things, huh?

crazybob60
07-21-2006, 04:24 AM
OK...I am going to do a little research like I said...I guess I will post them here...here are the Reds top 2 pitchers in Wins for each season (the ones in bold come the closest to equaling my prediction of Harang and Arroyo for this season)....(I am going to assume the closest being 15+ wins for both pitchers, and early results of looking into this, is that even at the All-Star break, that both Harang and Arroyo already had better Win totals for the season than some guys had during the complete season, which just goes to show how putrid the Reds Pitching staff has been!) Here are the seasons I came up with:

You also had in 1970 Merritt with 20 wins and Nolan with 18. They could be the ones easily closest to the two, we also had McGlothlin and Simpson that season each with 14 wins as well which is pretty respectable.

Also, in 1973 you had Billingham with 19 wins and Gullett with 18 and that season we had 5 different guys on the pitching staff with 11 or more wins.

Then the following season in 1974, they copied each other from the previous season except Gullett won one less. Billingham had 19 victories and Gullett had 17 and that season 6 pitchers had 10+ wins as the Big Red Machine was really started to take full swing.

Billingham, Nolan, and Gullett all led the attack in 1975 as they all amassed 15 wins as they Reds had 6 starting pitchers that fabulous season and all six had 10+ wins.

The season of 1988 was the previous one where Jackson and Browning each had 23 and 18 respectively.

1992 which really doesn't come close because Rijo and Belcher barely made the mark with 15 apiece.

Prediction:
2006: Harang -- 19
Arroyo -- 17

Actual:
2005: Harang -- 11
Claussen -- 10

2004: P. Wilson -- 11
Harang -- 10

2003: Reitsma -- 9
P. Wilson -- 8

2002: Haynes -- 15
Dessens -- 7
Graves -- 7

2001: Dessens -- 10
L. Davis -- 8

2000: Parris -- 12
Dessens -- 11

1999: Harnisch -- 16
S. Williamson -- 12

1998: Harnisch -- 14
Tomko -- 13

1997: Tomko -- 11
Burba -- 11

1996: Smiley -- 13
Burba -- 11

1995: Schourek -- 18
Smiley -- 12

1994: Smiley -- 11
Rijo -- 9

1993: Rijo -- 14
Pugh -- 10

1992: Rijo -- 15
Belcher -- 15

1991: Rijo -- 15
Browning -- 14

1990: Browning -- 15
Rijo -- 14

1989: Browning -- 15
Dibble -- 10

1988: Jackson -- 23
Browning -- 18

1987: Browning -- 10
Gullickson -- 10
Power -- 10

1986: Gullickson -- 15
Browning -- 14

1985: Browning -- 20
Soto -- 12
Franco -- 12

1984: Soto -- 18
Power -- 9

1983: Soto -- 17
Price -- 10

1982: Soto -- 14
Berenyi -- 9

1981: Seaver -- 14
Soto -- 12

1980: Pastore -- 13
Soto -- 10
LaCoss -- 10
Leibrandt -- 10
Seaver -- 10

1979: Seaver -- 16
LaCoss -- 14

1978: Seaver -- 16
Norman -- 11
Bonham -- 11

1977: Norman -- 14
Seaver -- 14

1976: Nolan -- 15
Zachry -- 14

1975: Billingham -- 15
Nolan -- 15
Gullett -- 15

1974: Billingham -- 19
Gullett -- 17


1973: Billingham -- 19
Gullett -- 18


1972: Nolan -- 15
Grimsley -- 14

1971: Gullett -- 16
Nolan -- 12

1970: Merritt -- 20
Nolan -- 18

1969: Merritt -- 17
Maloney -- 12
Carroll -- 12

1968: Maloney -- 16
Arrigo -- 12

ChatterRed
07-21-2006, 08:01 AM
Arroyo - 16 wins
Harang - 16 wins

This team screws up everytime Arroyo pitches. It's sad.

crazybob60
07-24-2006, 12:20 AM
So what does everybody else think bout the chances here????

RedEye
07-24-2006, 12:43 AM
Arroyo: 15-8 with a 3.20 ERA
Harang: 16-10 with a 3.50 ERA