PDA

View Full Version : Looking to buy low?



flyer85
07-24-2006, 02:38 PM
Here are some guys to consider for a nice ERA improvement. Consider the ML BABIP is ~30% and the strand rate is ~70%.

Pitchers with a BABIP over 33 and a Strand of under 65
Peavy, Jake NL 33 65
Hernandez, Orlando NL 34 65
Loe, Kameron AL 34 65
Shields, James AL 36 65
Johnson, Jason AL 35 64
Claussen, Brandon NL 33 64
Clement, Matt AL 33 63
Weaver, Jeff NL 34 62
Moehler, Brian NL 35 62
Lopez, Rodrigo AL 33 61
Vazquez, Javier AL 33 61
Perez, Odalis NL 38 61
Silva, Carlos AL 34 60
Waechter, Doug AL 33 59
Lohse, Kyle AL 37 57
Towers, Josh AL 36 54

Falls City Beer
07-24-2006, 02:46 PM
I'd say the careers of 70% of those guys are over.

flyer85
07-24-2006, 02:52 PM
I'd say the careers of 70% of those guys are over.may well be true, the point is it is a starting point to look for potenial value where others are not. The Reds need help and are basically going to be bottom feeding at this point. Just about anything would help when your 5th starter is Joe Mays.

Benihana
07-24-2006, 02:57 PM
I would love to get a Jake Peavy on the cheap. Although I seriously doubt the Pads would trade them while they're in 1st place, I would offer up anybody except our big 5 (Dunn, EdE, Bailey, Arroyo and Harang). Not sure what his current contract situation is, but yes, that even includes Jay Bruce if we could get Peavy locked up to a LTC. He is one of the best young starters in baseball.

Bruce, Aurillia (to play 3rd for them) and Zach Ward for Jake Peavy? Done and Dunn.

flyer85
07-24-2006, 03:04 PM
I wouldn't mind a chance on Lohse or Loe.

HotCorner
07-24-2006, 03:08 PM
Here are some guys to consider for a nice ERA improvement. Consider the ML BABIP is ~30% and the strand rate is ~70%.

Pitchers with a BABIP over 33 and a Strand of under 65
Claussen, Brandon NL 33 64


I'm intrigued by this Claussen kid but I need to learn more ... ;)

boognish
07-24-2006, 03:10 PM
may well be true, the point is it is a starting point to look for potenial value where others are not. The Reds need help and are basically going to be bottom feeding at this point. Just about anything would help when your 5th starter is Joe Mays.

Especially when there might be bidding wars for the likes of Mark Redman. With so many teams still within striking distance in terms of games behind, the Reds will need to find the ever-elusive diamond in the rough.

Maybe Claussen will provide a lift when he comes back from injury. Even his '06 performance, while not effective by any stretch, should be above the level of Mays. If he can return to his '05 level, it adds another "serviceable" arm. In my view, he costs the least.

flyer85
07-24-2006, 03:11 PM
Especially when there might be bidding wars for the likes of Mark Redman. With so many teams still within striking distance in terms of games behind, the Reds will need to find the ever-elusive diamond in the rough.
Cubic zirconia in the rough would suffice at this point. Better than continuing to use the turd in the pocket.

flyer85
07-24-2006, 03:13 PM
I'm intrigued by this Claussen kid but I need to learn more ... ;)The problem with Brandon is will he be back? He hasn't pitched in almost two weeks at this point so I would say he isn't close to being back until he can make a couple of starts in a row.

boognish
07-24-2006, 03:18 PM
The problem with Brandon is will he be back? He hasn't pitched in almost two weeks at this point so I would say he isn't close to being back until he can make a couple of starts in a row.

The next week is critical in terms of Brandon's ability...if he doesn't show signs of strengthening, the Reds need to look for the phyllite in the rough.

If Krivsky is willing to trade another piece that could help in the future, I am hoping it is not out of desperation and is for someone who is effective.

Interesting first name on the list, btw, flyer. If Peavy is healthy, there is no way he is moved (especially considering the Pads are in the thick of the West race), but he could bring a significant cahce in return. If San Diego believes he is damaged, this could become a much more interesting trade deadline than anticipated.

Dunner44
07-24-2006, 11:22 PM
I always liked Josh Towers, but he has been roughed up, just a lil bit.

To be fair to him, he's in a killer division. The move from the AL East to the NL Central worked for another pitcher, why not try it again?

kaldaniels
07-24-2006, 11:30 PM
As an aside, what's happened to Peavy this year???

Dunner44
07-24-2006, 11:35 PM
What happened to Towers? He's in the minors now? Dang, he's had a rough year:

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060627&content_id=1525914&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor


TORONTO -- The empty locker just inside the door to Toronto's clubhouse provided the answer. The Blue Jays needed to make a roster move in order to activate reliever Pete Walker from the 15-day disabled list and there were questions as to who else would be involved in the transaction.
Until Tuesday morning, the vacant stall had been occupied by starter Josh Towers.
Towers, who continued to struggle in his second stint with Toronto, was outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse before Tuesday's game against the Nationals.
The right-hander was originally sent down on May 24, after falling to a 1-8 record and posting a 9.00 ERA over 10 starts. He didn't show much improvement in his two outings since rejoining the staff on June 20, going 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA in those starts.
"I let him know today," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "I thought it was a step back the other day. The bottom line is we weren't winning the games he was starting."
In his most recent start, Towers gave up six runs on seven hits, including two home runs, in just four-plus innings on Sunday. He has given up 16 homers this year -- dating back to April 16 -- allowing at least one shot in his last 10 starts. His most recent outing also marked the sixth time in 12 starts that Towers has failed to pitch at least five innings.
"You've go to be able to give your team a chance to win," Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg said. "The thing we were concerned with, mostly, was we were falling down so quickly in his games. In the first two, three innings we're down by two, three runs and you'd see a different offense."
"It's tough to put your team in press mode every fifth day," he added. "That's what we were finding with Josh. I'm not stabbing him in the back or anything like that. I love him to death and we worked hard together. We just weren't able to get him figured out."
Arnsberg said that he and Towers tried many different things to try and solve his early-inning issues. In his dozen outings, Towers had allowed 19 first-inning runs and 33 runs in the first three innings.
"I've run out of ideas -- I really have -- to help him get better," Arnsberg said. "We tried several things for his early woes in innings this year. We tried starting him earlier. We tried letting him face hitters before he went into the ballgame. He'd go through an inning's worth of hitters."



This from the guy who sported a 3.71 ERA in over 200 innings last year? Granted, it was a career year, with his career average being 4.90, but is he injured and not talking like BC, or what gives?

tripleaaaron
07-24-2006, 11:38 PM
As an aside, what's happened to Peavy this year???
maybe the wbc had something to do with it, didn't get to work w/ his guy in the preseason so he just isn't on top of his stuff