Tracy Jones says "Bring Bailey up now".

[fearofpopvol1]

On extra innings, he said that its time. He's talked to numerous scouts and the scouts say he's ready. The reds need starting pitching and he said by brining up Bailey, you don't have to trade away prospects. Low risk, possibly high return more or less. It makes sense.

Most of the contradictions I've read on this is that it'll Wagner-ize him. However, if he was a 5th starter and if he was efficient and with the bolstered bullpen (so you could keep his pitch counts relatively low), what do you have to lose? I used to be against it (as recently as a week or two ago), and I still don't know about his 2nd/3rd pitches, but I don't see why don't give him a shot and see what he can bring. He is tearing it up in AA and scouts say if you can pitch in AA, you can pitch in the big leagues. The only thing that I'd be concerned about is him getting rocked and it hurting his confidence (Brad Lidge anyone)? However, you gotta get over that hump at some point anyhow, so why not give him at least a taste now? Give him 1 start or 2 or 3 and see how he does. If he just can't handle it, send him back.

What do you think?

[Ron Madden]

Pay no attention to Tracy Jones.

[cincrazy]

I just don't feel right in bringing him up. Most reports I've read said that he gets by on pure heat in AA. And while a 97 mph heater in the majors is a very good weapon, if you don't have a 2nd and 3rd pitch to back it up, you'll get smacked hard. It's our first taste of winning in a long time, and everyone is excited, but I just don't feel the need in rushing his progress to try and bolster our chances this year.

[Spring~Fields]

Tracy said that he wasn't ready last week, now he says he is. :confused:

I do wonder why Bailey is not headed to AAA though.

[919191]

After seeing him in the Futures game, I don't think he is ready.

[fearofpopvol1]

Tracy said that he wasn't ready last week, now he says he is. :confused:

I do wonder why Bailey is not headed to AAA though.

Yeah. He said he based that opinion off of seeing him once (at the Futures game), but hasn't seen him since. He said he knows numerous scouts throughout some different organizations and they have all told him that he's ready.

[dunner13]

My biggest concern would be the number of innings that he would throw if we brought him up here. I dont want him throwing 200 innings this year, that could really hurt him later. ( Like prior and wood). So although stuff wise he might be ready to be in the majors I think it would be wiser to let him pitch a few more starts this year and then at the end of august shut him down and tell him to come ready for next spring and maybe he can make the rotation then. I would rather have a number one starter for the next ten years then a good pitcher for two months then a broken down arm after that.

[KronoRed]

Tracy played the game, I guess we should listen right? ;)

[jimbo]

Tracy said that he wasn't ready last week, now he says he is. :confused:


I was thinking the same thing. I remember hearing Jones saying just last week that he wasn't ready.

Contrary to what Jones is saying, there was a column in today's DDN and a comment from McCoy saying that scouts and AA hitters who have faced Bailey are saying he is not ready. They all say he relies on his fastball too much, cannot get his curveball in the strikezone consistantly, and does not use his changeup enough.

[Always Red]

^Exactly- the kid is 20 years old. The Reds can wait for him until next year. He needs to spend this time learning to pitch, not throw, and build up arm strength. By all accounts, he is doing both.

I though Germano pitched a decent game yesterday. Not great, but certainly better than some of the outings we've seen from Milton, Claussen, etc. If we can't use him in the rotation, then maybe he was being auditioned to use as trade bait?

[alexad]

Tracy played the game, I guess we should listen right? ;)

Yea and If I told you I lived on a farm, would you believe me if I said Donkey's fly out of my butt when I cough!!!!!:help:

[fearofpopvol1]

Again, what about bringing him up for 1 start? If he gets pounded, you bring the bullpen in (that is supposed to be much improved) and hope they can keep you in the game. If he does well, let him have a 2nd or 3rd start. As a 5th starter in the rotation, his inning count shouldn't be too bad and as long as his pitch counts don't get too high and you bring in the bullpen, I think it's a relatively low risk.

[dougdirt]

After seeing him in the Futures game, I don't think he is ready.
Dont take anything out of his outting at the futures game. His last 3 starts, he has been mixing in his breaking and offspeed stuff very well. In his last few starts he has been freezing batters with both his change and his curve. I dont think he is ready just yet, but mainly just becuase he would hurt the bullpen because he is on a strict pitch count and he is closing in on the amount of innings he should pitch in the season anyways.

[Spring~Fields]

Tracy played the game, I guess we should listen right? ;)

As long as he agrees with us, lately he has been, when he stops agreeing with us I will turn him off. ;)

[goreds2]

Has Richard or Rod called in the show tonight? What do they think? ;)

[paintmered]

Again, what about bringing him up for 1 start? If he gets pounded, you bring the bullpen in (that is supposed to be much improved) and hope they can keep you in the game. If he does well, let him have a 2nd or 3rd start. As a 5th starter in the rotation, his inning count shouldn't be too bad and as long as his pitch counts don't get too high and you bring in the bullpen, I think it's a relatively low risk.

Bringing him up even for one day starts his arbitration and free agent clocks.

[fearofpopvol1]

Bringing him up even for one day starts his arbitration and free agent clocks.

That's a great point. However, it's going to happen at some point anyway. The Reds are in contention. You have to take a risk. You want to keep Bailey around for a long time anyway, so if you have to sign him for more money a bit sooner, no biggie.

[Mario-Rijo]

I think the main deal I see is that these young guys are not yet ready to fill the amount of innings they will be asked to shoulder. Sure 20 yr olds are resilient, and he could do it I'm sure this year. However how does shocking his arm into what would amount to (if you are extremely careful 80 pitches a game) an additional 320 + pitches or harm him down the road? Plus if you get the desired result and you make the playoffs how do you not use him (out of the pen perhaps) whenever you Need him. I would say another 90 pitches a week for how many weeks 5 or 6 (I'm dealing in best case scenarios for the team here). You are talking possibly 1000 pitches more than he is used to. Let's say that averages out too 20 pitches an inning (he is a Strikeout pitcher) that's just about another 50 innings on top of 107.1 (what he already has plus his next 7 starts (avg. 6 innings) which is another 42 innings for a grand total of 200ish innings at a not yet mature arm. Granted he may throw more for the Dbl-A playoffs, but these innings won't be nearly as grueling or stressful on his arm.

(These numbers do not reflect playoff games)

In AA- 7 more scheduled starts.

In AAA- 7 more starts.

In MLB- 11 more starts.

Basically you could have him throwing fastballs against guys who haven't learned how to work a count yet or he could face some combination of Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Piazza, Giles, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Floyd, Drew, Garciaparra. Which could only do 1 of 2 things too him, crush him or work his arm too death and then maybe still work his arm too death.

That is something no one ever seems to touch on with these young pitchers. Marty always says he agrees with Jim Leyland, "If they can throw 100 down in the minors they can throw 100 up here"! Would he feel the same if the guy was 10 years old? Come on let his body mature and strengthen in a year where if we even make it too the playoffs we completely outdown ourselves. I know I for one can live with whatever this year brings one way or another and between Claussen (pre-injury, and I mean well before he admitted he was hurt), Germano & Dumatrait I think we can find a passable 5th starter. Besides if Bronson doesn't bounce back, Milton doesn't stay healthy/semi-productive and EZ hits a wall what does Bailey actually give us a good # 3 w/o the benefit of a 4 or 5?

It all doesn't make much sense too me, there is just too many uncertainties on this team to bring up Bailey and risk his health physically/mentally and still not make it. Now Votto I could live with! :thumbup:

[RFS62]

I say we send Tracy down now.

[Jpup]

Tracy Jones is ignorant.

[KronoRed]

I say we send Tracy down now.
The farm is mighty empty though..might have to hit the Mexican leagues

[Aronchis]

Lets bring up Tyler Pelland!!!!!!!

[Jpup]

How about leaving Germano in the rotation?

[reds44]

Tracey Jones is a fool.

Not breaking news or anything.

[TOBTTReds]

Tracey thinks that EdE has no future with the Reds...seriously.

[fearofpopvol1]

Tracey thinks that EdE has no future with the Reds...seriously.

Do you listen to his show? He said today what many others on this board have. They should move Brandon to SS, put Rich at 2B and EdE at 3rd since he's a solid hitter.

[Phhhl]

I think the Reds need him to be ready. But, the fact remains that he isn't.

This season isn't worth risking the only real pitching prospect we have had in two decades. Pish Posh, the season picks you... blah blah blah. Maybe if we had two or three more like him, like some organizations actually do, it would be worth throwing the kid to the wolves for the good of the team. But, there is a risk involved that not only jeopordizes homer, but the franchise as well. If this kid fails and is anything less than a bonafide number one starter in the major leagues, there simply is no plan B.

[Ron Madden]

Tracey thinks that EdE has no future with the Reds...seriously.

Edwin has more talent at the tender age of 23, than Tracy ever had. The sad thing is EE is stuck with Jerry Narron as his Manager.

[TOBTTReds]

Do you listen to his show? He said today what many others on this board have. They should move Brandon to SS, put Rich at 2B and EdE at 3rd since he's a solid hitter.

Sorry, no I don't for more than 3 minutes because I get mad after that point. But he did say this about 3 weeks ago. He appearantly flip flops quite a bit.

[westofyou]

On extra innings, he said that its time.

For him to watch some soccer and dream about Homer Baily coming up.

[IslandRed]

Bringing him up even for one day starts his arbitration and free agent clocks.

But the clock stops if he goes back to the minors -- service time for free agency/arbitration is based on days spent on the major-league roster (or DL), not six years from the day he got his first callup. Same for arbitration. The "super-two" possibility complicates things a bit, but two months by itself wouldn't get him into that category.

Where a callup for the last two months of 2006 would hurt is if he spends some time in the minors next season but not for very long. A callup wouldn't affect anything if he spends all of next year with the big club, or most of next year in the minors.

(Disclaimer: Nothing in the above should be read as an endorsement of the move.)

[paintmered]

But the clock stops if he goes back to the minors -- service time for free agency/arbitration is based on days spent on the major-league roster (or DL), not six years from the day he got his first callup. Same for arbitration. The "super-two" possibility complicates things a bit, but two months by itself wouldn't get him into that category.

Where a callup for the last two months of 2006 would hurt is if he spends some time in the minors next season but not for very long. A callup wouldn't affect anything if he spends all of next year with the big club, or most of next year in the minors.

(Disclaimer: Nothing in the above should be read as an endorsement of the move.)

I defer to your superior knowledge in this subject. :)

But that said, it's still a bad move and Tracy Jones is a blabbering idiot.

[Ravenlord]

Homer needs to stay down. while i think he could get Major League hitters out at a better-than-most-of-the-current-bullpen-rate, there's a huge stamina issue. Bailey hasn't thrown more than 103 innings in the pros, and i'm not sure has reached the 200 inning career plateu yet. he needs to finish this year in the minors (probably in AAA), and spend at least the first month or two of next year in Louisville working on stamina.

or have we learned nothing of what happens when you give a Major League workload to a starter who's thrown very few minor league innings?

[CTA513]

I say we send Tracy down now.

Trade Tracy to the Royals.

[Col_ IN Reds fan]

If, and this is a big if , Bailey keeps pitching well and has no unusual problems then bring him up in September. Let him pitch a few innings in relief early in the month then shut him down. This does get him a year closer I believe to arbitration and free agency , but he will be up at somepoint next year anyways.

[StillFunkyB]

I say we send Tracy down now.

:clap:

[RedsMan3203]

Jones is an idiot and doesn't care about anything.

Its all about Tracy Jones.

[Chip R]

If he is up here for a short time it is not a big deal FA or Arbitration wise as IslandRed said. However, what it does is start his options rolling. Now that is not a big deal if he is up here to stay and hopefully he will be a full fledged major leaguer before his options run out. But one never knows.

The thing I worry about is because of his age he may lack the social maturity to handle life in the big city. Going out and getting boozed up every night was as much a part of David Clydes downfall as anything. I know he is only 20 and the drinking age is 21 but I think we all know it is not a tough job to get into a bar if you are underage. Or, if he does not want to go out to a bar, he stays in his hotel room alone.

As I have said before, bringing him up is not like bringing up Germano or some other minor leaguer. This is The Savior. The Great White Hope. The Franchise. Fans are not going to see him as just another 5th starter. He is going to be a big attraction at home in at least his first couple of starts. I would not bet against a sellout here the first time he pitches. He is going to be seen as the de facto ace of the Reds. Not Harang and not Arroyo. His expectations will be so high about the only way for him to meet them is to throw a shutout. God forbid if he actually loses the game.

One other thing to remember about calling up Homer is to listen to who is wanting him to be called up. By and large it is the media. On the surface it would seem like all they want is for Homer to be called up and he becomes the next Kerry Wood and pitches the Reds to the playoffs and we live happily ever after. If that happened I am sure they would be happy. It is a great story. But they also have a great story if he comes up and falls flat on his face. They could care less if he succeeded or failed. All they want is the story.

[fearofpopvol1]

Tracy definitely says some dumb things, but the man has played the game and most times, knows what he is talking about. He's a bit indecisive at times as well, but I don't know how you can't appreciate his perspective.

[TRF]

Tracy definitely says some dumb things, but the man has played the game and most times, knows what he is talking about. He's a bit indecisive at times as well, but I don't know how you can't appreciate his perspective.

My wife watches Grey's Anatomy. I don't want her performing surgery on my kids though. Tracy played the game. Doesn't mean he has a clue about running a franchise. The success rate for 20 year old pitchers in the modern era can be counted on one hand.

The Reds can wait. Tracy needs to grow a brain.

[goreds2]

As I have said before, bringing him up is not like bringing up Germano or some other minor leaguer. This is The Savior. The Great White Hope. The Franchise. Fans are not going to see him as just another 5th starter. He is going to be a big attraction at home in at least his first couple of starts. I would not bet against a sellout here the first time he pitches. He is going to be seen as the de facto ace of the Reds. Not Harang and not Arroyo. His expectations will be so high about the only way for him to meet them is to throw a shutout. God forbid if he actually loses the game.



If Homer is brought up, as you said, he will probably sell out GABP even at a weekday game (with no give aways...;) ). He would also be on ESPN the night he pitches and probably the FOX game of the week on Saturday if needed. National TV would adjust THEIR schedule for Homer.

I could see Tracy, "Rod", "Richard" and the "chimney Sweep guy" attending the games. :D

[LexingtonRedleg]

Tracy said that he wasn't ready last week, now he says he is. :confused:

I do wonder why Bailey is not headed to AAA though.

We really need to NOT rush Bailey. Even getting him to AAA is a step that needs more attention paid to it than just "We think he's ready for AAA. They are being very cautious and deliberate with this kid.

[Chip R]

He would also be on ESPN the night he pitches and probably the FOX game of the week on Saturday if needed. National TV would adjust THEIR schedule for Homer.

Let's not get carried away. It's not like he's Denorfia or anything. ;)

[TOBTTReds]

If Homer is brought up, as you said, he will probably sell out GABP even at a weekday game (with no give aways...;) ). He would also be on ESPN the night he pitches and probably the FOX game of the week on Saturday if needed. National TV would adjust THEIR schedule for Homer.

I could see Tracy, "Rod", "Richard" and the "chimney Sweep guy" attending the games. :D

I wish. They didn't do this for Fransisco Liriano or Felix Hernandez, two higher touted young guns.

[Benny-Distefano]

I think we should wait til he is 30 years old to bring him up. By then he will have mastered a bunch of pitches, and think how grown up he'll be!!!

wait... how old is he now again? I just guessed 12 years old, judging by the naysayers here.

[ThornWithin81]

No.

Absolutely not.

[fearofpopvol1]

My wife watches Grey's Anatomy. I don't want her performing surgery on my kids though. Tracy played the game. Doesn't mean he has a clue about running a franchise. The success rate for 20 year old pitchers in the modern era can be counted on one hand.

The Reds can wait. Tracy needs to grow a brain.

Playing the game (and commenting on it) and watching a tv show (and performing a surgery) are just a bit different, don't you think?

[TRF]

not really. Playing a game and running a franchise are vastly different. different priorities and outlooks. playing the game is a here and now situation. Running a franchise requires longterm vision that extends beyond a single season. Some of the best GM's in the game right now have never played the game. Some of the worst have.

Think about that.

[fearofpopvol1]

not really. Playing a game and running a franchise are vastly different. different priorities and outlooks. playing the game is a here and now situation. Running a franchise requires longterm vision that extends beyond a single season. Some of the best GM's in the game right now have never played the game. Some of the worst have.

Think about that.

I see what you're saying and agree to a point, but performing a surgery based on watching a TV show vs having someone who actually played the game of baseball throwing out opinions on something baseball, there's definitely a credibility differential (advantage, Jones). You can disagree and not like his opinion, but it's certainly not the same sort of comparison.

[TRF]

I see what you're saying and agree to a point, but performing a surgery based on watching a TV show vs having someone who actually played the game of baseball throwing out opinions on something baseball, there's definitely a credibility differential (advantage, Jones). You can disagree and not like his opinion, but it's certainly not the same sort of comparison.

Maybe it is extreme, But to make it closer, I don't want the clubhouse manager to make decisions about prospects. Or the batboy. I don't want anyone with peripheral experience making decisions about the future of a franchise. Jones has no experience evaluating talent, and over values his own.

Not the guy I'd take advice from.

[Heath]

everytime I hear Tracy Jones, I feel like Linus talking to Miss Othmar.

[uks2h]

Tracy Jones is an idiot.

[dougdirt]

Tracy Jones is an idiot.
Understatement of the year!

[Reds1]

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. From what I heard he still doesn't have command of his non fast ball pitches and he can't hold runners close. I have a hard time believing the command thing seeing his numbers, but I read that somewhere. I will say the stats on pitchers coming up that young and not doing well are staggering. I just hope Claussen is ok.

[dougdirt]

Lately his command of his offspeed stuff has been pretty good. By lately I mean the last 3 starts he has made. Before that, he wasnt throwing much offspeed stuff, but lately he has been throwing it quite often and throwing it well.

[bluecheese]

yeah im new to this but i saw your picture ( dougdirt ) and your an IDIOT!!!!! why wwould you fire narron! hes one of the reasons why the reds are doing so well this year you are seriously stupid or your mom dropped you on the head when you were a baby

[Bobcat J]

yeah im new to this but i saw your picture ( dougdirt ) and your an IDIOT!!!!! why wwould you fire narron! hes one of the reasons why the reds are doing so well this year you are seriously stupid or your mom dropped you on the head when you were a baby

Not a very friendly way to join the board. You may want to lighten up and treat others around here with respect.

[dougdirt]

yeah im new to this but i saw your picture ( dougdirt ) and your an IDIOT!!!!! why wwould you fire narron! hes one of the reasons why the reds are doing so well this year you are seriously stupid or your mom dropped you on the head when you were a baby
The Reds are doing so well in spite of Jerry Narron. The Reds are doing so well this season because they have a talented team, not becuase they have Jerry Narron as a manager.

[Newman4]

I could see Tracy, "Rod", "Richard" and the "chimney Sweep guy" attending the games. :D

Anyone else think all these characters that call in are like Tracy's cousins or brother-in-law that Tracy bribes to call in to get him some ratings? I dunno. :rolleyes:

Seriously though, I think Claussen as the 5th starter is plan A, Lohse plan B and Homer plan C. Krivsky and Co. are not going to lose this thing with inepititude at that slot.

[Matt700wlw]

After seeing him in the Futures game, I don't think he is ready.

Cut on finger....couldn't throw off speed stuff.

[Razor Shines]

Not a very friendly way to join the board. You may want to lighten up and treat others around here with respect.
Respect like everyone on here calling Narron and Jones idiots and brainless or stupid or whatever. I don't agree with this guy calling dougdirt an idiot either, and I'm not on his side, just seems like a double standard.

[Bobcat J]

Respect like everyone on here calling Narron and Jones idiots and brainless or stupid or whatever. I don't agree with this guy calling dougdirt an idiot either, and I'm not on his side, just seems like a double standard.

There is a difference in saying these things in the abstract when Narron isn't involved in the discussion and likely never will be and personally attacking someone who is involved in the discussion.

[Razor Shines]

There is a difference in saying these things in the abstract when Narron isn't involved in the discussion and likely never will be and personally attacking someone who is involved in the discussion.
So it's ok to call someone names as long as that person never hears or reads it. I have no problem disagreeing with Narron or Jones, Lord knows I am baffled by some of the things Narron does, but I just don't feel that calling him an idiot or some other name is a very good way to express your opinion. I don't know maybe I would feel better if I did.

[goreds2]

I wonder if Tracy got "Rod" a job with the Reds groundscrew? :confused:

[Ron Madden]

I could be wrong but I honestly believe the Reds organization would be better served owning their own radio network.

No good can ever come from listening to Jones or Furman.

The dagone Banana Phone is more informative.