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vaticanplum
08-15-2006, 01:55 PM
Well, I'm starting to lose it, and I don't want to think about the Cardinals anymore. So I have decided to familiarize myself with the Reds' big competition (up to ten teams in the division and wild card races at this point, I'd say; some more likely than others). The NL West, in particular, I could usually give a crap about, so I am trying to learn more about them in effort to either put my mind at ease about the teams or at least give me numbers to put behind my reasons to fear them.

This is just the basic information that I've gathered from my head and a few easily accessible sources. What I'm looking for is your opinions on these, your addendums to things that I may have missed or that are misleading on paper. Help dispel the fear!

Today we are looking at the San Diego Padres.
Current Record: 60-58 (.508)
Standing: 2nd in NL West, 2.5 games behind Los Angeles Dodgers; 2nd in Wild Card, 1 game behind Cincinnati Reds
Remaining Schedule: Padres fans (all three of them) must have more frayed nerves than Reds fans in terms of their remaining games. With the exception of the Pirates, whom they will meet for one series at the end of September, every team they play from here on out is a division or wild card contender and can be considered their direct competition. They have 6 games against the San Francisco Giants (55-63; 7-6 against the Padres this season); 13 games against the Arizona Diamondbacks (59-59; 5-1 against the Padres); 7 games against the Los Angeles Dodgers (63-56; 3-8 against the Padres); 6 games against the Colorado Rockies (58-60; 8-5 against the Padres); 6 games against the Cincinnati Reds (you know their story…just kidding, 61-57; 0-0 against the Padres); 3 games against the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-73; 1-2 against the Padres); and three games against the St. Louis Cardinals (62-55; 1-2 against the Padres).

Scary: They started abysmally but had a bang-up May Their starting rotation is pretty middle-of-the-road in my opinion. They show flashes of brilliance but strike me as too inconsistent. Nevertheless, Jake Peavy is still a scary pitcher when he dominates. Trevor Hoffman is still about half-scary with a 2.22 ERA and 31 saves; Linebrink is semi-scary as well, with a 3.83 ERA but one of their most reliable pitchers, in my opinion, and a very good setup man to have. Adrian Gonzalez is pretty much their scariest hitter this year, with a .342 OBP and .514 slugging, 127 hits and 20 home runs as a left-hander in the small planet that is Petco Field.

Not so scary: The mean average age of this team is 102. They are 12-18 since the All-Star break. I paid a compliment to Peavy up there because I happen to like him, but the truth is that he was a huge part of the team’s unscary postseason run last year with his 2.88 ERA (it was even lower in 2004 at 2.27). If he can’t regain form I think the Padres are hard-pressed to win without him. In fact, their pitching since the All-Star break has been notably unscary. Chan Ho Park just came off the DL, where he spent some time hanging out at death’s door as far as I can tell, so props to him, but that does nothing for his 4.66 ERA. Chris Young is really their scariest pitcher this year but has trouble going far into games, and their bullpen (now featuring Scott Williamson!) is not very scary. Brian Giles, Mike Cameron, Mike Piazza, and the newly acquired Todd Walker – these are all good, solid names, but none have really distinguished themselves this year. Khalil Greene is a favorite of mine, but he is as breakable as Kal Daniels.

Overall fear factor: A very unfamiliar team to me, but in breaking it down, I have determined that the Padres are not very scary, at least on paper. I think the Reds can outhit, outpitch (!) and outscrap them (despite the Padres boasting Dave Roberts, who as we all know is half bunny). The combined with the strength of the Padres’ remaining schedule makes it very unlikely to me that they can make the playoffs; their four series (13 games) with the Diamondbacks, who have played very well against them this season, increases the Diamondbacks’ scary factor more to me. I don’t think the Padres have the depth they need to make a great run at this point, so it would take a pretty big collapse by a fairly decent amount of teams for them to take the NL West or even the Wild Card. If the Reds do not at minimum split their six games with them, then the Reds are tools. Plus, they only play any other team in the NL Central once (those three games with the Cards), so if the Padres are as unscary as they look to me on paper, they won't help out our division rivals too much.

I feel better!

D-Man
08-15-2006, 09:13 PM
Nice thread, Vaticanplum.

Chris Young is a very good #2 complement to Peavy. The Pads may have the best 1-2 punch of any NL team in the hunt. Interestingly, the Padres starters have been giving up a ton of taters in Petco Park, even though it only increases HRs by 4%.

Young: 2.08 HR/9
Thompson: 1.76
Park: 1.41
Williams: 1.49
Peavy: 1.1

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=sdg&seasonYear=2006&split=33&seasonType=2&type=reg&pagetype=pitching

(Reds aside: you gotta appreciate the environment in which the Reds pitch--Petco increases HRs by 4%, whereas GABP increases HRs by 23%!)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Agree with your comment re: the geriatric lineup. Building a team around a collection of good-not-great players in their golden years is, well, not exactly a winning proposition. The late-1990s Yanks and the 2001 D'backs were the only team to translate that kind lineup of into a championship. And let's just say this Pads club doesn't have Schilling and Randy Johnson fronting the rotation.

Cameron, Castilla, Piazza, Roberts, Barfield, Giles (shell of former self), Gonzalez, Greene. There is isn't one player in that lineup that is *scary* (sorry, must be the word of the day).

Is this team likely to break out? I just don't see it, anywhere. The Braves and Astros have far greater breakout potential. And I would place the Pads squarely behind the Dodgers and D'backs in the West in terms of depth and quality.

boognish
08-16-2006, 10:50 AM
I like the idea for this series of threads, vaticanplum.

It could change over the next couple of weeks, but the Padres appear to be swooning. Time will tell, of course, whether Peavy's shoulder woes are behind him, Park has recovered from his anemia, or Young can pitch more like his first half. Young, I think, is the key in their rotation...if he can avoid a September swoon and continue to pitch like a true ace on the road, maintaining his excellent WHIP and K/9 (1.22 and 7.86, respectively, both career bests), this team can stay in it. If he continues to run high pitch counts and his WHIP and ERA trend slightly upward, this team could find themselves behind the Dodgers and Diamonbacks, fighting with the Rockies for third in short order.

Their lineup is much better than I personally expected it to be. The emergence of Adrian Gonzalez is a big key (.300/.348/.509), and the loss of Khalil Greene hurts more because of who they have to replace him with (likely the likes of Geoff Blum). Todd Walker adjusting to defense at the hot corner--5 errors in 21 chances so far with SD--is also something to look at in the NL West, because it seems to me (didn't look up stats) that runs are at a premium most nights...excluding games played at Chase Field in Arizona. Brian Giles has not provided much this season, another surprise.

Like everyone else in the wild card scrum, they have some blemishes, but I would personally rank them behind both the Diamonbacks (due to potential influx of young talent and IMO the best lineup in the division) and the Dodgers (see Dodger thread for my worship of Wilson Betemit :D) within the division. I think starting with a breakdown of the West Division teams is great because the upcoming West Coast trip could be the defining stretch in the Reds' season, again, IMO. Let's face it, it's a lot of fun to do this while your team is in contention.

vaticanplum
08-16-2006, 11:07 AM
Young, I think, is the key in their rotation...if he can avoid a September swoon and continue to pitch like a true ace on the road, maintaining his excellent WHIP and K/9 (1.22 and 7.86, respectively, both career bests), this team can stay in it.

I was very surprised to learn how well Chris Young has been pitching lately; I don't know why I haven't heard more about it. That WHIP and k rate are outstanding. It's amazing to think how much scarier the Padres would be if Peavy were pitching up to his standard of the last few years.


(likely the likes of Geoff Blum).

I had no idea Geoff Blum was with the Padres now. None.

I'd love to hear more about the Padres' bullpen if anybody is familiar with it. Apart from Linebrink and Hoffman, I really don't know much about it. I haven't paid attention to what Embree and Williamson have done with them at all.

Patrick Bateman
08-16-2006, 11:28 AM
I was very surprised to learn how well Chris Young has been pitching lately; I don't know why I haven't heard more about it. That WHIP and k rate are outstanding. It's amazing to think how much scarier the Padres would be if Peavy were pitching up to his standard of the last few years.



Chris Young has been a mirage this season IMO.

He's got good K rates and doesn't walk too many guys, but he is giving up 1.53 HR/9. That's a huge rate. The only reason his ERA looks good is that he's boasting a .253 BAPIP. Considering he has a career BAPIP of .283, there's no reason to suggest that his current rate will continue.

His DIPS ERA is 4.69 which is a pretty good estimate for how good he is really pitching when you factor in average luck.

Combine that with the fact that he pitches half his games in one of the best ballparks for pitchers and you are looking at a pitcher that should have an ERA approaching 5.00, not 3.80.

boognish
08-16-2006, 11:29 AM
I'd love to hear more about the Padres' bullpen if anybody is familiar with it. Apart from Linebrink and Hoffman, I really don't know much about it. I haven't paid attention to what Embree and Williamson have done with them at all.

At first glance, I assumed they weren't much good since they have Doug Brocail in a key middle relief role, and other than those you mentioned, not much in the way of "impact names."

However, the RHP that were not in their plans at the beginning of the year (excepting Williamson as he still hasn't thrown 10 IP since being acquired) have recently been solid contributors in middle relief:

Cla Meredith: 23 IP, 0 HR, 0.70 WHIP, 1.17 ERA, 6.26 K/9 since recall in early July
Jon Adkins: 40.1 IP, 1 HR, 1.29 WHIP, 3.12 ERA, 5.16 K/9 since call-up in May

Linebrink and Hoffman...you know their story.

One thing I think would be interesting is to look at the Padres % of batted balls turned into outs. Their outfield is reputedly very good defensively in terms of range and they look to have a fair amount of fly ball pitchers on the staff.

dabvu2498
08-16-2006, 11:36 AM
I'd love to hear more about the Padres' bullpen if anybody is familiar with it. Apart from Linebrink and Hoffman, I really don't know much about it. I haven't paid attention to what Embree and Williamson have done with them at all.
Embree's been solid after being downright putrid last year. They've been using him as a LOOGY quite some (42.0 IP in 56 games), but overall, he's been decent (1.21 WHIP, .670 OPSA). Williamson, not so hot... 1.51 WHIP, .751 OPSA.

Three somewhat surprises for their pen have been Jon Adkins, Scott Cassidy and Brian Sweeney. Although it seems the ERA roof could cave in on Cassidy anytime (.835 OPSA only 2.79 ERA).

Only having watched them play 10-12 times, I've not been overly impressed with the "stuff" from any of these guys. Pitching in that ballpark sure does help, though.

boognish
08-16-2006, 11:38 AM
Chris Young has been a mirage this season IMO.

He's got good K rates and doesn't walk too many guys, but he is giving up 1.53 HR/9. That's a huge rate. The only reason his ERA looks good is that he's boasting a .253 BAPIP. Considering he has a career BAPIP of .283, there's no reason to suggest that his current rate will continue.

His DIPS ERA is 4.69 which is a pretty good estimate for how good he is really pitching when you factor in average luck.

Combine that with the fact that he pitches half his games in one of the best ballparks for pitchers and you are looking at a pitcher that should have an ERA approaching 5.00, not 3.80.

Good post.

I am wondering if the improved numbers, particularly BABIP, are correlative or causal with moving into a good flyball pitchers' park with an outfield defense which *should* get to more fly balls.

That could explain the DIPS ERA that looks to be pretty much on par with his career to this point, but my theory is that he is greatly benefiting from improved defense. Is there a good place to look up the team defensive statistics that could predict/disprove that Young could expect to continue to outpitch his DIPS ERA?

pedro
08-16-2006, 11:44 AM
nice idea for a thread. to me, the dodgers are scary.

Hollcat
08-16-2006, 03:18 PM
I was very surprised to learn how well Chris Young has been pitching lately; I don't know why I haven't heard more about it. That WHIP and k rate are outstanding. It's amazing to think how much scarier the Padres would be if Peavy were pitching up to his standard of the last few years.



I had no idea Geoff Blum was with the Padres now. None.

I'd love to hear more about the Padres' bullpen if anybody is familiar with it. Apart from Linebrink and Hoffman, I really don't know much about it. I haven't paid attention to what Embree and Williamson have done with them at all.
I listened to some of the Padres/Giants game on Monday. They were saying that Embree hadn't gave up a run in his last 14 innings. This was the night Clay Hensley started, he pitched 6 or maybe 6+ innings and gave up one unearned run, he has pitched pretty well, I think his era is somewhere in the 4.10 range

vic715
08-17-2006, 01:53 PM
Theteam that scares me is Philly.They just keep creeping up.Watch em.