Time to bring up Bailey

[Blitz Dorsey]

What do you guys think?

Yes, it would be nice to leave Homer in the minors and not bring him up during a high-pressure pennant race. But I don't think we have any other option. Michalek is not going to get it done, same for EZ Ramirez. My only concern about bringing Bailey up now is that he has already probably thrown more innings this year than at any time of his life. He might be close to hitting the wall. Who knows. But he has been dominant in Chattanooga and I think the time is now to see what he can do in the Show.

This would give the Reds a solid 1-5 rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse and Bailey.

I have said all along don't rush Homer Bailey. But I've reached the point where I feel like it's the perfect time to bring him up. I think he's proven that he's not being "rushed" given his dominance in AA, and the Reds desperately need a No. 5 starter. It seems to make sense to give him a look now. But I won't be upset if they choose to take their time and leave him in the minors. Maybe Ryan Franklin or someone else can step up as the No. 5. But in my opinion, it's time to bring the phenom up and have him give us that extra push over the top.

[mth123]

No. Shut him down. Bailey's timetable should be:

February 2007: Spring Training with the big club for several starts.
April 2007: Opening Day Starter for Louisville.
June 2007: Up to the big club in a low pressure role, (Mop-up, Spot Start) if successful in AAA.
April 2008: Fifth Starter in Cincy.

[keeganbrick]

Bring him up in the bullpen, yes, but thats it.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

No. Shut him down. Bailey's timetable should be:

February 2007: Spring Training with the big club for several starts.
April 2007: Opening Day Starter for Louisville.
June 2007: Up to the big club in a low pressure role, (Mop-up, Spot Start) if successful in AAA.
April 2008: Fifth Starter in Cincy.

I like the looks of that

[keeganbrick]

There is hardly anything in AAA anymore.

[cincrazy]

I shut him down. Homer Bailey's not going to be the difference between this team winning the World Series or not, so i see no need to rush him. If bringing up Bailey gets us to 85 wins and a playoff spot (far from a guarantee even if he does have success) i still don't think it's worth it if he runs into trouble down the road from it. He's already thrown enough innings this year in my opinion, so I give him some rest, and as mth123 says, give him some time in spring training next year.

[tomred]

I think we should hire a hooker to get Denny Neagle out of retirement

[cincrazy]

Hahaha. Bring back Steve Parris!!! Where did that guy come from anyways? For one year, he was lights out, and every year before or after that, he was pretty much unheard of, or awful. Baseball is a funny game.

[fearofpopvol1]

No. Shut him down. Bailey's timetable should be:

February 2007: Spring Training with the big club for several starts.
April 2007: Opening Day Starter for Louisville.
June 2007: Up to the big club in a low pressure role, (Mop-up, Spot Start) if successful in AAA.
April 2008: Fifth Starter in Cincy.

No way. That's far too long.

I can understand the argument of not bringing him up this year but there is no reason he shouldn't be joining the club permanently by some point next season (unless he struggles miserably).


I shut him down. Homer Bailey's not going to be the difference between this team winning the World Series or not, so i see no need to rush him.

It's hard to predict that upfront. There is no doubt that he should be called up in September and at least pitch some innings out of the bullpen. With all the injuries (Guardado, Majewski, Schoo, Merker, Stanridge), that is a LOT of your bullpen right there. You're going to need another GOOD arm in the bullpen. Even with the current guys who are healthy, you don't always know what you'll get. The bullpen is very low risk and possibly rewarding.

[mth123]

No way. That's far too long.

I can understand the argument of not bringing him up this year but there is no reason he shouldn't be joining the club permanently by some point next season (unless he struggles miserably).

It says he's up in June. Sorry if it wasn't clear.

[fearofpopvol1]

Ah ok. It made it seem like the June timetable was tenative.

[Newman4]

Start him Wednesday. If not this season, Bailey should at least be given every opportunity to win a spot in the starting rotation next spring training. He not THAT far off from being ready to dominate. Plus, he's a whole lot better than the Michalak, Franklin, EZ, whomever rotation.

[Ltlabner]

Start him Wednesday. If not this season, Bailey should at least be given every opportunity to win a spot in the starting rotation next spring training. He not THAT far off from being ready to dominate. Plus, he's a whole lot better than the Michalak, Franklin, EZ, whomever rotation.

I'd say pitching less than a full year at AA and only really having a solid fastball to work with is VERY far off from being ready to dominate. IMO.

[redsfanmia]

:deadhorse

[steig]

I don't think Baily is ready to start in the majors at this point. Yesterday he only went 4 2/3 innings before being pulled due to pitch count. If he can't get farther along in the minors on approximately 100 pitches then how long will he last in a big league game? Originally I thought that he might do better with big league hitters b/c he wouldn't strike them out as much so more balls would be put in play and he could get farther on less pitches. But we also have to realize that hitters will lay off more pitches and the strike zone will be tight. If they call him up I hope he is only used in the bullpen for this season. He is the first good reds pitching prospect in 20 years, let's not rush things to fast.

[Newman4]

Start him Wednesday. See how he does. IMO

[redsfanmia]

I think that its time to call him up but its just not going to happen. We should just start praying for rain when the fifth starters turn comes up.

[mbgrayson]

Don't we want Homer to learn that great change-up from Mario Soto at Louisville next year?

[Chip R]

I am not necessarily advocating this but what about bringing Homer up as the closer? I remember the Cards doing this with Todd Worrell back in the 80s. I think he was just a reliever in the minors but they brought him in the last month of the season and he was lights out. He would not have to throw a bunch of pitches and about the only teams in our division that would get a good look at him are the Cubs and Bucs. I know that is a pressure role but there is less of a chance for him to get shellshocked if he is pitching 1 inning. A potential drawback could be that if he has success they convert him into a closer for good.

[Krusty]

I think the Reds will be shutting down Bailey by the time September rolls around. He is reaching career highs in number of innings pitched and I think the Reds won't push it.

The Reds have Standridge, Belisle, Majeski, Shackelford and a few others awaiting a September 1 callup. With that number of pitchers available in the pen, the Reds can pull the starter at the first moment of trouble.

[gm]

I am not necessarily advocating this but what about bringing Homer up as the closer? I remember the Cards doing this with Todd Worrell back in the 80s. I think he was just a reliever in the minors but they brought him in the last month of the season and he was lights out. He would not have to throw a bunch of pitches and about the only teams in our division that would get a good look at him are the Cubs and Bucs. I know that is a pressure role but there is less of a chance for him to get shellshocked if he is pitching 1 inning. A potential drawback could be that if he has success they convert him into a closer for good.

I was considering the same thing, when I read this thread title. Bailey could have a similar impact that Francisco Rodriguez had, back when the Angels won the WS. Downside is that Homer's not set up to pitch everyday, which is a necessity in that role.

[huber14]

why is Homer still in AA? shouldnt he at least be in AAA?

[MaineRed]

The Cardinals bring up the Rick Ankiel story.

He was brought up when he was 20 and as George Grande would say:

"you know his story."

Not saying that will happen to Homer but either the kid is ready or he is not. You don't go experimenting with the kid at this point because you have no fifth starter.

Yes he has the most talent of anyone in the Reds minor league system but that does not mean he is ready. I can see bringing him up, putting him in the pen and letting him pitch to a batter or two to get a taste when the rosters expand. If he does well and the organization feels he has some gas in the tank, continue to use him, but don't overuse him.

I just don't think it is as simple as, "send him back down if he gets rocked", when talking about the emotions of a 20 year old.

[Caveman Techie]

The Cardinals bring up the Rick Ankiel story.

Yes he has the most talent of anyone in the Reds minor league system but that does not mean he is ready. I can see bringing him up, putting him in the pen and letting him pitch to a batter or two to get a taste when the rosters expand. If he does well and the organization feels he has some gas in the tank, continue to use him, but don't overuse him.

I just don't think it is as simple as, "send him back down if he gets rocked", when talking about the emotions of a 20 year old.

I wouldn't have a problem with this scenario except for the Narron factor. Narron would overwork him.

[MaineRed]

I would probably overwork him too if I was being blamed for the teams ills and my bullpen was in shambles and he was put in front of me.

But then again, doesn't Jerry have man love for vets? How would Homer ever get in his good graces?

That is what I find funny. So many on this site use the man love for vets card but fail to mention how Jerry has been pressuring Wayne (tongue in cheek most of the time I think) about bringing up a 20 year old kid to save the pitching staff.

Either Narron is willing to use anyone with talent, regardless of age, or he has man love for vets.

It can't be both.

But the critics use both against him.

Shows how unfairly he is treated.

[Tom Servo]

Wayne's new name for the Reds:

http://www.duffgardens.net/content/theories/img/nhc.gif

[Jr's Boy]

Bring him up and put him in long relief.

[muethibp]

There's no question in my mind that he should be shut down. As others have said, there is absolutely no guarantee that he makes a lick of difference up here and the potential long term damage from exposing him to the twin pressures of each susbsequent inning being a new career high and facing major league hitting for the first time is too much to screw around with.

To say nothing of starting his arbitration clock by bringing him up to start "to see how he does."

[CTA513]

Hes about 10-15 innings away from reaching his innings pitched limit.
No reason to bring him up if he is only allowed to pitch a few innings.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I still say let him come up and pitch every fifth day, only allow him to go 5 innings (maybe 6) no matter how well he's doing. Isn't that pretty much what he's doing in Chattanooga? So, he wouldn't necessarily be pitching more innings up here. Just someone to go out there every fifth day and hopefully give us 5 strong innings. Could be exactly what the doctor ordered, but again, I understand wanting to be patient with this kid. It sounds like we finally have a top pitching prospect, one of the best in all of baseball, and we don't want to screw it up.

[Highlifeman21]

What do you guys think?

Yes, it would be nice to leave Homer in the minors and not bring him up during a high-pressure pennant race. But I don't think we have any other option. Michalek is not going to get it done, same for EZ Ramirez. My only concern about bringing Bailey up now is that he has already probably thrown more innings this year than at any time of his life. He might be close to hitting the wall. Who knows. But he has been dominant in Chattanooga and I think the time is now to see what he can do in the Show.

This would give the Reds a solid 1-5 rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse and Bailey.
I have said all along don't rush Homer Bailey. But I've reached the point where I feel like it's the perfect time to bring him up. I think he's proven that he's not being "rushed" given his dominance in AA, and the Reds desperately need a No. 5 starter. It seems to make sense to give him a look now. But I won't be upset if they choose to take their time and leave him in the minors. Maybe Ryan Franklin or someone else can step up as the No. 5. But in my opinion, it's time to bring the phenom up and have him give us that extra push over the top.


Solid is being very generous with that crew.

Harang's been our best starter this year so far.
Arroyo seems to have been figured out by the NL. Why else would it take him 11 tries to win his 10th game?
Milton? Solid? Solidly hit all over the yard, maybe.
Lohse, small sample size, but has surprisingly looked good so far for us.
Bailey? Let him get his feet wet in AAA before being thrown to the NL wolves and shattering whatever confidence and command this kid may develop.

Bailey is still a crapshoot at this point. I would love for him to pan out to be the savior that most have labeled him, but he can't throw his breaking ball consistently for strikes, and still relies WAY too heavily on his fastball.

If we make the playoffs this year, consider it a gift, this wasn't supposed to be our year anyway, so let's focus on a division title in 2007.

Hopefully by then, we won't win in spite of Jerry Narron.

[goreds2]

8/25/06

Bailey enticing option for Reds

But call-up for Double-A pitcher unlikely
BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER
SAN FRANCISCO - The other day when Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said that Homer Bailey would pitch through the playoffs, manager Jerry Narron wondered:

"Which playoffs?"

Krivsky was talking about the Southern League playoffs, but Narron thinks Bailey could be useful in the National League playoffs as well.


Bailey, a 20-year-old right-hander, pitched another gem for Double-A Chattanooga Wednesday, working five shutout innings and allowing four hits. He walked three and struck out four.

He is 6-0 with a 1.14 ERA in 11 starts with Chattanooga. He has allowed 45 hits and struck out 69 in 62 innings.

"Wayne won't even let me talk about him," Narron said.

Even if the Reds were inclined to have Bailey jump to the major leagues, he doesn't have a lot of innings left in him this year.

Bailey has pitched 1322/3 innings, 28 more than he threw last year for Single-A Dayton.

The rule of thumb is not to add more than 30 innings a year for young pitchers. The Reds already have cut back Bailey's pitches per start; he's pitched five innings or fewer in his last three outings.

Bailey probably will make one more regular-season start and one in the playoffs for Chattanooga.

Narron loves it when the subject of Bailey comes up. After talking about him with reporters a bit Thursday, Narron asked: "You all going to write that?"

When the answer came back as yes, Narron laughed.

"Wayne's gonna call me at about 4 in the morning," Narron said.

But Narron isn't clamoring for Bailey to be brought up. He wants what is best for the young pitcher's future.

Krivsky, when asked about Bailey a few days ago, would not rule out a September call-up.

But it's unlikely to happen because the Reds should have several pitchers currently on the disabled list - Jason Standridge, Eddie Guardado and Gary Majewski - back for the stretch run.

[ol'Sparky]

It's fun to have a young fellow like this in the "waiting" !! :beerme:

[dfs]

I'm with Krusty here. The reds already have too many suspects to sort through in the bullpen that you can't add him there and asking the kid to start right now would be foolhardy and developmentally a bad thing.

I did advocate bringing Bailey up back in July to pitch low leverage innings and fill out the bullpen. I'll be shocked if he's not up at least in that role sometime next season. Either that or an injury.

[Cicero]

I wouls like to see him develop another pitch first. His heater is fantastic to be sure, but he does rely on it too much.

[ol'Sparky]

I wouls like to see him develop another pitch first. His heater is fantastic to be sure, but he does rely on it too much.


well it is reliable !!

[TeamBoone]

I honestly don't think it's wise to let him cut his teeth in the bigs yet, and I really don't want to see him (or any rookie pitcher) take his first pitch in the bigs during a pennant race. The pressure is hard enough under normal circumstances.

[GridironGrace]

I honestly don't think it's wise to let him cut his teeth in the bigs yet, and I really don't want to see him (or any rookie pitcher) take his first pitch in the bigs during a pennant race. The pressure is hard enough under normal circumstances.

ditto

"time to give up on bailey coming up this season"

[ITHIKABAND]

We're not allowed to talk about Bailey pitching for the Reds this year. Mr. Wayne Krivsky's orders. Plus it will NEVER happen wishfull thinking!

[Blitz Dorsey]

Solid is being very generous with that crew.

Harang's been our best starter this year so far.
Arroyo seems to have been figured out by the NL. Why else would it take him 11 tries to win his 10th game?
Milton? Solid? Solidly hit all over the yard, maybe.
Lohse, small sample size, but has surprisingly looked good so far for us.
Bailey? Let him get his feet wet in AAA before being thrown to the NL wolves and shattering whatever confidence and command this kid may develop.

Bailey is still a crapshoot at this point. I would love for him to pan out to be the savior that most have labeled him, but he can't throw his breaking ball consistently for strikes, and still relies WAY too heavily on his fastball.

If we make the playoffs this year, consider it a gift, this wasn't supposed to be our year anyway, so let's focus on a division title in 2007.

Hopefully by then, we won't win in spite of Jerry Narron.

Semantics, but I don't disagree with much of what you said. Of course Milton isn't solid, but taking that entire group together, that would be a solid staff. Not great, but good enough. And Lohse has clearly jumped ahead of Milton for the #3 spot since I started this thread.

[EddieMilner]

Redszone Law 141:
Everyday the following threads must be posted:
a. Bring up Bailey/When will Bailey be ready
b. Narron Sucks
c. Krivisky's last trade was the worst trade I've ever seen
d. Brandon Phillips should be starting at SS
e. Some rediculous idea of an off season FA pick up or trade (trade usually includes us giving up no one and getting Zito/Willis in return)

Variety its the spice of life.

[Highlifeman21]

Semantics, but I don't disagree with much of what you said. Of course Milton isn't solid, but taking that entire group together, that would be a solid staff. Not great, but good enough. And Lohse has clearly jumped ahead of Milton for the #3 spot since I started this thread.

At this point in time, I'd go with:

Harang
Lohse
Arroyo
Milton
#5 by committee

Lohse has continued to impress, Harang's still our most consistent, and Arroyo looked conservatively decent aside from stupidly being left in for the 7th last night.

Milton still gets tagged all over the yard, and we don't have a clear cut solution for #5. Michalak? Give me a break.

I hope Lohse keeps up what he's doing, and we can give some run support to Harang, or else we will quickly fall from the WC grace.