Are these Reds "clutch"?

[Brutus]

I bet this is a question that has crossed your minds a time or two this season, isn't it?

I was unable to watch the game this evening, but I was telling a friend after he informed me the Reds were losing 3-0 late in the game that, "if there is any team that can come back, it's this team."

Sure enough, I got home and saw they won 4-3. I was certainly not at all surprised. This year, this team, they have made a habit of late inning heroics and insurmountable comebacks. Truth is, no lead is safe against these guys.

But that leads to the obvious question... statistically speaking, are they as clutch as they appear to be?

This season, the Reds are only No. 27 in the entire league in batting average with RISP and 2 outs with just a .217 average. Amazingly enough, they are only No. 26 in the league out of 30 teams with a .699 OPS.

With the bases loaded, the Reds are 7th in the league in OPS with an .896 and in batting average they are No. 9 with a .324 average.

But here are the stats that seem to seperate Cincinnati...

The Reds are 7th in the league in "close and late" situations, according to ESPN.com with a .788 OPS. Moreover, in innings 7+, the Reds are 4th in the entire league with a .780 OPS. From the 7th inning on, the Reds are 3rd in the majors with 53 homers trailing just Atlanta and the White Sox.

The 23-14 record in 1-run games obviously speaks for itself, but how many come-from-behind wins is that now? Isn't it like 30? I'd also be interested in seeing how many times the Reds have came back to win in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings.

Anyhow, what sayeth you?

[RFS62]

Without getting into any arguments about "clutch", I'd have to say that this team is exactly the kind of team Cincinnati fans love.

Yeah, we loved the Big Red Machine. We loved stomping the guts out of everyone in baseball with one of the great collections of players ever assembled. But those days are gone.

What we have here is the "Cool Hand Luke" of mlb. The underdog who gets knocked down and keeps on getting back up. Everyone on earth picked us for last and droned on and on about how the bottom was soon to fall out and we'd plummet to the cellar.

It hasn't happened. We're getting an unexpected thrill ride heading into the final week of August. What a kick. What a gift, after all those years of suffering.

I've heard the rollercoaster analogy on several threads. Man, it is spot on target. Only this is a rollercoaster ride on a rickety old wood framed track with rusted out cars cobbled together with duct tape.

Throw up your arms and enjoy the ride.

[BuckWoody]

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand. :thumbup:

[redsmetz]

What we have here is the "Cool Hand Luke" of mlb. The underdog who gets knocked down and keeps on getting back up. Everyone on earth picked us for last and droned on and on about how the bottom was soon to fall out and we'd plummet to the cellar.

http://computermilitia.com/wp-content/photos/thumb_cool_hand_luke_egg.jpg

[Johnny Footstool]

Every red-blooded American loves the underdog. We all want to be Rocky, the '69 Mets, the '80 Olympic Hockey Team, Villanova.

[lollipopcurve]

I've heard the rollercoaster analogy on several threads. Man, it is spot on target. Only this is a rollercoaster ride on a rickety old wood framed track with rusted out cars cobbled together with duct tape.

Throw up your arms and enjoy the ride.

Love the analogy, love the sentiment. I'm riding in the Red Racer.

[adampad]

I've heard the rollercoaster analogy on several threads. Man, it is spot on target. Only this is a rollercoaster ride on a rickety old wood framed track with rusted out cars cobbled together with duct tape.

So very true.....

This may be the oddest team I have ever seen. They lose when they should win and win when they should lose. They are never out of a game, but on the flip side niether are there oppenents. They have shocked me with heroics, and left me so greatly frustrated with failures. They traded some of my favorite players to sadden me, but have given me new unexpected heroes such as Philips and Ross. Everytime they are down and I think they are dead, they somehow fight back to regain my interest.

I think the play to define the season was made at a game I was at. The Reds were up 4-2, after getting destroyed the day before. Milton is starting to unravel with 2 on and no out with the best hitter I've ever seen coming to the plate. I look to my friends and tell them its over, we've lost. Done for the season. Then a long drive by Mr. Pujols silenced the crowd. I knew it. I called it. Season over. And then from out of no where, after sprinting for what seemed like 2 miles in 4 seconds a insane midget filled wall crashing maniac makes a mind blowing diving play. That play saved the game, saved the season, and saved my hopes and dreams.

No matter what happens from on, we have seen it all this season. And I am loving every second of it. I can't wait to see how they screw up and come back for these last six weeks.

[Always Red]

This team can't stand prosperity.

But this team also has a huge heart!

[BCubb2003]

This team doesn't do momentum. It doesn't turn the thrilling comeback into a winning streak, but it doesn't get stymied by a lousy game, either. That's why there's not much point in saying the game is over in the third inning, or "if we don't make the playoffs, it's because of this play." This team has short-term memory only.

[KYRed]

From today's "Elias Says" on ESPN:

• The Reds beat the Astros 4-3 after trailing by three runs going to the bottom of the eighth inning. It's the fifth time this season that the Reds have won when trailing by at least three in the eighth or later. The only major league team to do that even half as often as the Reds this year is the Padres, who have three wins when trailing by at least three in the eighth or later. The Reds also tied a team record in that category, set in 2000.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2557070

[vaticanplum]

From today's "Elias Says" on ESPN:

• The Reds beat the Astros 4-3 after trailing by three runs going to the bottom of the eighth inning. It's the fifth time this season that the Reds have won when trailing by at least three in the eighth or later. The only major league team to do that even half as often as the Reds this year is the Padres, who have three wins when trailing by at least three in the eighth or later. The Reds also tied a team record in that category, set in 2000.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2557070

But they are no Big Papi!!! ;)

[RFS62]

But they are no Big Papi!!! ;)


We don't have a Big Papi. We've got a bunch of Little Poopies.


:cool:

[i_heart_jason]

i'd been watching the TiVo'ed part because i got home late.... and once i caught up to the live action, those boys turned! it! on! it was awesome!

[BuckWoody]

i'd been watching the TiVo'ed part because i got home late.... and once i caught up to the live action, those boys turned! it! on! it was awesome!
TiVo. :luvu:

[Johnny Footstool]

Question to consider -- the the Reds "turn it on" or did they simply outlast Andy Pettite and exploit the Astros' middle relievers?

[RFS62]

Question to consider -- the the Reds "turn it on" or did they simply outlast Andy Pettite and exploit the Astros' middle relievers?



I don't think they "turned it on". I think it was on from the get-go.

More importantly, they didn't "turn it off" when they were down.

They kept battling.

[Matt700wlw]

They're a team you can't stop watching.....once you think they're down and out, they come back.

Once you think the tailspin has begun and playoff hopes are dead, they keep them alive.


Sometimes you want to pull you're hair out, and 10 minutes later you're jumping around all happy and stuff because they did it again.

They're fun. They're exciting. They're resiliant. They're ours! :reds:

I feel safe in saying, with this team the way it is, if they make the playoffs......they have a chance to do the unthinkable...

[Razor Shines]

Question to consider -- the the Reds "turn it on" or did they simply outlast Andy Pettite and exploit the Astros' middle relievers?
There it is. That's what happened. I posted it in the game thread during the 4th inning. Pettite was on his game and the Reds did a great job of making him work in almost every inning. They did exactly what you have to do against good pitchers. They didn't just start hitting, they turned a great outing by Pettite into thier favor by making him work and getting to the pen.

[Johnny Footstool]

There it is. That's what happened. I posted it in the game thread during the 4th inning. Pettite was on his game and the Reds did a great job of making him work in almost every inning. They did exactly what you have to do against good pitchers. They didn't just start hitting, they turned a great outing by Pettite into thier favor by making him work and getting to the pen.

I agree. The "Chambliss approach" (if you can call it that) has been the hallmark of the Reds' offense for the past few years. Work the count, look for your pitch. The cost is strikeouts, but the reward is forcing your opponent to use middle relievers in the sixth and seventh innings.

As long as you don't let those strikeouts bother you, it's a very effective system.

[oregonred]

But that leads to the obvious question... statistically speaking, are they as clutch as they appear to be?

This season, the Reds are only No. 27 in the entire league in batting average with RISP and 2 outs with just a .217 average. Amazingly enough, they are only No. 26 in the league out of 30 teams with a .699 OPS.

With the bases loaded, the Reds are 7th in the league in OPS with an .896 and in batting average they are No. 9 with a .324 average.

But here are the stats that seem to seperate Cincinnati...

The Reds are 7th in the league in "close and late" situations, according to ESPN.com with a .788 OPS. Moreover, in innings 7+, the Reds are 4th in the entire league with a .780 OPS. From the 7th inning on, the Reds are 3rd in the majors with 53 homers trailing just Atlanta and the White Sox.


Overall the Reds are OPS'ing at a .796 clip (.802 since the AS Break). This just says they've been just absolutely horrible with RISP all year (explaining why our RS per game is at least .25 per game lower than it should really be), but they come back to their mean in close and late situations. Since the Reds have 180 homers this season and lead the NL it doesn't at all seem out of line that 53 of them were in innings 7+ -- almost looks a slight bit low factoring in extras and PH'ers.

The Reds offense is pretty darn good and it's no surprise they've found a lot of late magic again this season just based on their offensive production and high SLG%/OBP% levels.

What's been unusual and fun is a few real dramatic comeback wins down 3+ runs in the 8th. Also don't forget the 5-run 9th in ATL before the AS Break to tie where the Reds then lost in the bottom of the 9th (ouch).

[D-Man]

From today's "Elias Says" on ESPN:

• The Reds beat the Astros 4-3 after trailing by three runs going to the bottom of the eighth inning. It's the fifth time this season that the Reds have won when trailing by at least three in the eighth or later. The only major league team to do that even half as often as the Reds this year is the Padres, who have three wins when trailing by at least three in the eighth or later. The Reds also tied a team record in that category, set in 2000.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2557070

A few ruminations:

1.) I'm not surprised in the least by late-inning, come-from-behind HRs. With a beer-league lineup of sluggers/high BBers and a home park that inflates HRs by 25%, this team is waiting for a three-run homer. Earl Weaver is smiling somewhere.

2.) What is this team's winning percentage when it does not hit an offensive HR? Isn't it something ridiculously low, like 25%? Last night is a good case in point--no way the club wins without Aurilia's HR.

3.) What is interesting is the runs scoring patterns of this team. This team seems to score nearly all of its runs in innings 1, 2, 8, and 9. All teams tend to score more runs in the 1st inning, no surprise there. But I would have expected the Reds to score most frequently in innings 5, 6, and 7 because the Reds are one of the league leaders in pitches per plate appearance. I would expect the Reds to churn through pitchers, resulting in a lot of matchups against bad middle relievers in the middle innings. But that hasn't happened. This seems very counterintuitive to me.


4.) The Reds are 4th in the league in pinch-hitting batting average. That helps create late-inning rallies.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=type3&sort=pinchAvg&split=0&season=2006

[creek14]

So last night at the game, I turned to TeamDunn and said "Richie is going to hit a HR here and drive RedsZone insane."

I think I'm clutch in the prediction category.

And Mr Footstool nailed it.