Honest Stats Question

[Ltlabner]

I used honest in the title lest anyone think this is another stats battle thread. :)

What is the average probablity that an at-bat will produce the following outcomes:

out
1B
2B
3B
HR

I know it's a very broad question and that it will differ for each batter, but I'm currious what the average probability would be for these events to take place. i.e. generally speaking the average probability of a double being hit in any given AB is 8%, or whatever.

Further, what is the average probability that a runner on 1B will actaully become a run? I'd be currious to know the same for a runner on 2nd and 3rd also. In other words, if a guy is on 2B what are the chances of him making it home, on average?

Thanks in advance for the effort in research, number chrunching, etc.

[redsmetz]

I found this article, but after scanning it,I don't think it's exactly getting at what you want.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/

[dfs]

I'll give you some rough numbers for the first part of your query.

I've pulled my numbers from www.baseballreference.com using last years national league numbers. Year and league matter, but they'll be close to this years numbers. I don't know if hpb counts as an AB or not, so We may miss a couple plate appearances on stuff like that and there are always questionable official scoring decisions...enough excuses on to the numbers.

88,120 at bats.
8,396 walks
23,058 hits
4,754 doubles
468 tripples
2,580 homers

88,120 at bats + 8396 walks means roughly 96,516 plate appearances.
23,058 hits - 4,754 double - 468 tripples -2,580 homers = 15,256 singles

8,396/88,120 = 8% of batters will walk.
15,256/88,120 = 17% chance of a single
4,754/88,120 = 5% chance of a double
468/88,120 = 0.5% chance of a tripple
2,580/88,120 = 3% chance of a homer

My guess is the best way to illustrate the second part of your query involves a run estimation chart. I don't believe I've ever seen anyone calculate it that way. A run estimation chart doesn't exactly answer your question, but I think it's a usefull tool. Since BP published their's this last year, lets use their version for this year.
runners No Outs One out Two outs
000 0.54566 0.30029 0.10987
003 1.48395 0.98037 0.36963
020 1.15429 0.74478 0.36556
023 1.91182 1.44861 0.5824
100 0.9228 0.56595 0.23718
103 1.83519 1.18815 0.47894
120 1.56706 0.95087 0.45006
123 2.3858 1.64545 0.81739

First of all lets laugh at the good guys at BP for carryin their precision out to 5 decimal points. Nothing like a good chuckle. Then let's go about interpreting what that table means. That means if the bases are loaded and nobody is out, you team should score two runs or more. Likewise if there's a man on third and two outs, you're going to score a run about a third of the time.

Hope that helps.

[Cyclone792]

I used honest in the title lest anyone think this is another stats battle thread. :)

What is the average probablity that an at-bat will produce the following outcomes:

out
1B
2B
3B
HR

I know it's a very broad question and that it will differ for each batter, but I'm currious what the average probability would be for these events to take place. i.e. generally speaking the average probability of a double being hit in any given AB is 8%, or whatever.

Further, what is the average probability that a runner on 1B will actaully become a run? I'd be currious to know the same for a runner on 2nd and 3rd also. In other words, if a guy is on 2B what are the chances of him making it home, on average?

Thanks in advance for the effort in research, number chrunching, etc.

Use plate appearances instead of at bats. With plate appearances, the 2005 probabilities/league averages were approximately as follows per any given PA:

Out: 67.00 percent
1B: 15.69 percent
2B: 4.76 percent
3B: 0.48 percent
HR: 2.69 percent
BB: 8.16 percent
HBP: 0.96 percent

For baserunner/out situations, use a run expectancy chart and a run frequency chart.

Tango Tiger Run Expectancy Chart: 1999-2002 (http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html)

Tango Tiger Run Frequency Chart: 1999-2002 (http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html)

EDIT: Looks like dfs got it before I did ;)

[dfs]

Looks like dfs got it before I did

well, except I screwed my numbers up.

oops.

8,396/96,516 = 8% of batters will walk.
15,256/96,516 = 15% chance of a single
4,754/96,516 = 5% chance of a double
468/96,516 = 0.5% chance of a tripple
2,580/96,516 = 2.5% chance of a homer

Thanks to redsmetz for the sanity check.

[vaticanplum]

Use plate appearances instead of at bats. With plate appearances, the 2005 probabilities/league averages were approximately as follows per any given PA:

Out: 67.00 percent
1B: 15.69 percent
2B: 4.76 percent
3B: 0.48 percent
HR: 2.69 percent
BB: 8.16 percent
HBP: 0.96 percent

Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest.

We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.

[redsmetz]

Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest.

We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.

Of course, the inside the park home run is probably rarer. I remember writing and suggesting that they add one more category to the game they do in the 8th inning where they give away so much money and tickets with a grand slam winning someone a car. I suggested adding one more bigger prize if the Grand Slam was an inside the parker.

[Ltlabner]

We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.


Oh lord...not another "sliding vs over-running the base" arguments. Yeeeeccchhh. The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.

[vaticanplum]

Oh lord...not another "sliding vs over-running the base" arguments. Yeeeeccchhh. The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.

:laugh:

These things are VERY IMPORTANT. Uberimportant, even.

[Highlifeman21]

Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest.

We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.

Sexier, sliding triple.

If you got there standing up, Wendell Kim would be wavin ya home.

Mark Berry, on the other hand, would not. He probably would have kept you at 2B.

[vaticanplum]

Sexier, sliding triple.

If you got there standing up, Wendell Kim would be wavin ya home.

Mark Berry, on the other hand, would not. He probably would have kept you at 2B.

See, I disagree (and I've always been in the minority in this argument). If there's a chance you can make it home, or the third-base coach is waving you home, by all means, run like the wind, young grasshopper. If there's any chance you're not going to make it to third, slide your guts out. But -- BUT -- if you know you're going to stay put at third and there's ANY possibility that you can cruise in there on your feet like it's the easiest thing in the world...oh my god. DO IT. Usually the guys who can pull off stand-up triples are the fleet-footed players anyway, so if they're not going home, you know they really can't get there safely. So they just breeze on in there, maybe take a smoke break, like it was no effort at all, when those figures above prove that a triple is SO difficult. If they can't get home, then it's like -- like a double that was never meant to go beyond that, but not only did he do that, he did it with ease. There is no word for that but sexy. It's not gritty, it's not groovy, just sexy.

Ryan Freel had a textbook stand-up triple in Houston in early June. Ryan Freel is exactly the kind of player who can pull off a sexy stand-up triple: he'd slide if he needed to, he'd go home if he could. But circumstances dictate that he just run into third and stays there. If I could set up house at the hot corner, I would.

[Ltlabner]

Many thanks for your efforts!

GAC will buy you a case of beer to thank you for your time. Just talk to him to make the arrangements.

[danwl]

The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.

Dude, that is Airwolf all the way. With Jan Michael Vincent and Ernie Borgnine PLUS the theme music? No match.

I always knew that Jan Ullrich reminded me of somebody and now I know that it was Stringfellow Hawke. thanks!

[Ltlabner]

Dude, that is Airwolf all the way. With Jan Michael Vincent and Ernie Borgnine PLUS the theme music? No match.


With you 100% partner!

Blue Thunder was ok but it had nothing on Airwolf.

[texasdave]

I remember the time Eric Davis pulled off a very stylish stand-up triple in the Astrodome. He drove the ball to deep left-center. This ball had trouble written all over it and the Astro defense reacted accordingly. Eric flew around first and headed for second. It must have been at this moment that the seed of deception was planted in his brain. And a clever ruse it was indeed. For a stride or two he eased up as if he intended to glide safely into second. The Astro left fielder mistook this as a sign of surrender and paid dearly. He pivoted and floated a throw towards third. Eric kicked it into a gear few mortals possess and eased into third standing up. It silenced the crowd.

[Highlifeman21]

See, I disagree (and I've always been in the minority in this argument). If there's a chance you can make it home, or the third-base coach is waving you home, by all means, run like the wind, young grasshopper. If there's any chance you're not going to make it to third, slide your guts out. But -- BUT -- if you know you're going to stay put at third and there's ANY possibility that you can cruise in there on your feet like it's the easiest thing in the world...oh my god. DO IT. Usually the guys who can pull off stand-up triples are the fleet-footed players anyway, so if they're not going home, you know they really can't get there safely. So they just breeze on in there, maybe take a smoke break, like it was no effort at all, when those figures above prove that a triple is SO difficult. If they can't get home, then it's like -- like a double that was never meant to go beyond that, but not only did he do that, he did it with ease. There is no word for that but sexy. It's not gritty, it's not groovy, just sexy.

Ryan Freel had a textbook stand-up triple in Houston in early June. Ryan Freel is exactly the kind of player who can pull off a sexy stand-up triple: he'd slide if he needed to, he'd go home if he could. But circumstances dictate that he just run into third and stays there. If I could set up house at the hot corner, I would.


Nicely prosed (if that's even a word). But I still disagree.

I guess sexier is the sliding triple on a bang bang. You end up at third, and you have no business being there. Maybe you ran thru the stop sign at second, maybe Mark Berry grew a pair and waved you one step closer to the promise land, maybe you're playing in some goofy park and you were thinkin triple the second it left your bat. Regardless, give the triple its due respect and get dirty earning the rarity. Don't disrespect the unicorn by petting it standing up.

Now, it's the official scorer's job to get the call right.

[jmcclain19]

Dude, that is Airwolf all the way. With Jan Michael Vincent and Ernie Borgnine PLUS the theme music? No match.

I always knew that Jan Ullrich reminded me of somebody and now I know that it was Stringfellow Hawke. thanks!


Oh lord...not another "sliding vs over-running the base" arguments. Yeeeeccchhh. The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.


With you 100% partner!

Blue Thunder was ok but it had nothing on Airwolf.
http://ultimative-80ere.dk/v2/gfx/images/serier/airwolf.jpg

[Always Red]

Nicely prosed (if that's even a word). But I still disagree.

I guess sexier is the sliding triple on a bang bang. You end up at third, and you have no business being there. Maybe you ran thru the stop sign at second, maybe Mark Berry grew a pair and waved you one step closer to the promise land, maybe you're playing in some goofy park and you were thinkin triple the second it left your bat. Regardless, give the triple its due respect and get dirty earning the rarity. Don't disrespect the unicorn by petting it standing up.

Now, it's the official scorer's job to get the call right.

Now I realize that it's ludicrous (and fairly nauseating) to use the word "sexy" and Pete Rose in the same sentence, so I will not.:laugh:

But the most excited I have ever been, watching a baseball game, other than the 3 World Series Championships, was watching Rose slide headfirst into third base in his fisrt AB, during his first game back to the Reds. IIRC, it was actually a double and an error on the outfielder.

But the triple is the most exciting "play" in the game, and sliding in on a close play just adds to the thrill, especially if the outfielders all "assumed" it would be a double, and the hitter stretched it into a threebagger.