9/6/06 - Reds vs. Giants Game Thread

[pedro]

He is a scrappy vet ... and Jerry's heart told him to do to it.

Where's the love, man?

There is no love for Castro as a PH.

That's just sad.

btw- MLB TV cut out with the catrso's ball in the air so i missed the catch.

[Matt700wlw]

Now, the board is predicting a Dunn deal in the off-season.



Wouldn't totally shock me. Maybe moreso than before now that the Kearns/Lopez deal went down.

[Sea Ray]

I think we need to look at ways to improve the offense on this team as much as the pitching for 2007. Fact is it's been the O that has led to this swoon putting them out of the playoff picture. Homer Bailey and Greg Maddux would not have made a difference.

[mbgrayson]

5 pitches.....3 outs. Ridiculous. Phillips and the Hat both 1st pitch swinging.

But the 8th killed us. Clayton on 2nd, no outs. Four of our best hitters come up, and the inning ends with Clayton still on 2nd.

[flyer85]

There is no love for Castro as a PH.

That's just sad.

btw- MLB TV cut out with the catrso's ball in the air so i missed the catch.shocking that it wasn't a HR. :help:

[westofyou]

any team that PH's Juan Castro with the game on the line deserves to lose.

No HR's for Juan to grab air time, had to get him in there.

[REDREAD]

No HR's for Juan to grab air time, had to get him in there.

:laugh: Maybe they are showcasing Juan.

[guttle11]

5 pitches.....3 outs. Ridiculous. Phillips and the Hat both 1st pitch swinging.

But the 8th killed us. Clayton on 2nd, no outs. Four of our best hitters come up, and the inning ends with Clayton still on 2nd.

Aurilia should have been bunting in the 8th.

[westofyou]

funny thing in the land of expanded rosters, the Reds did not have a single RH power bat on the bench.

Sure they did, he's just hitting like crap this season.

[CTA513]

Errors and Strikeouts included.

A-Rod for Dunn?

:dunno:

I dont know if the Yankees would do it and I wouldnt be surprised if they wanted more than Dunn. Though if they wanted to I would hope the Reds would say yes to it.

[Reds Fanatic]

I wonder if they are going to really bring back Narron next year. I know he was extended but this team is now 39-47 since they announced his extension.

[flyer85]

Wouldn't totally shock me. Maybe moreso than before now that the Kearns/Lopez deal went down.we have seen the profile of the kind of player than WK is enamored with and the Twins won during his time there with no bonafide power hitter(Morneau became the first Twin to hit 30 HRs in a season in forever).

With Dunn' high Ks ,less than mediocre defense and high salary he should be packing his bags.

Let's be honest, what else does Wayne have to deal?

[SteelSD]

He is played every day and the Reds coaching staff and management have given media answers for his strikeouts, but its clear they consider his production and overall approach acceptable. I don't think a trade is going to come because he drives observers like fans and the media nutty with the inconsistency. I think he is understood fine by those making decisions. That doesn't mean they might not jump on a trade offer if someone who really, really appreciates his offense comes along.

Let's say you work in a place where your department employs six creative types and six analytical types. You're a creative.

One day the organization restructures and lays off every creative type but you and adds two analyticals.

Any reasonable person could rightly draw an inference from that culture swing. And, if you want to do well, you may just alter your behavior to better "fit in". Maybe you focus more on task and ignore some relationship building. Maybe you set aside other productive behaviors to focus on what you think would be better. That happens quite often, even if the latter isn't really better. Maybe in doing so, your performance slips below the level prior to the culture change.

Even though YOUR value may be understood by your managers, that doesn't mean you still wouldn't alter your behavior to better resemble what you felt your employer really valued. Being understood and behavior changes aren't necessarily dependent on each other.

That's dangerous, but natural. And Dunn has already shown a propensity to absorb and implement bad advice. Big red flag.

If Narron or Krivsky HAVE had the conversation I speak of with Dunn, then kudos to them. If not, that's a real issue because those conversations do need to take place when culture swings happen.

[Heath]

Predicting is not the same as complaining.

Based on WK's short track record here, it seems logical that he'll shop Dunn, no?

I don't believe he will, Dunn signed a new deal in the offseason - and Krvisky - even in the Terry Ryan/Minnesota approach, knows what contract flexibilty is all about. I would think that if there is any contract Krvisky would like to get rid of is Junior's deal - and that would take some shennanigans to get rid of.

I don't think Adam Dunn's ever gonna hit .300, but I'd "predict" that he's probably going to OPS over .925 for his career.

The key is that Adam Dunn needs to be at first base. He's got the footwork and he's got the smarts. Let him try that all winter. I'm hoping that someone tells Jr. (Are you listening TeamClark?) that he'd further his career as a corner OF. There is a need for a defensive speed guy in center. I think Phillips is playing SS next year.

All speculative, IMO.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

There is no love for Castro as a PH.

That's just sad.

So true. this would be funny, if wasn't so sad.

This is the progress this team has made? Down by one, one out, ninth inning, and Juan Castro as a PH?

Mark me down as being not impressed with the new regime.

In fact, it just looks like more of the same crap to me. Same crap, different year.

[redsfanmia]

we have seen the profile of the kind of player than WK is enamored with and the Twins won during his time there with no bonafide power hitter(Morneau became the first Twin to hit 30 HRs in a season in forever).

With Dunn' high Ks ,less than mediocre defense and high salary he should be packing his bags.

Let's be honest, what else does Wayne have to deal?

I will party the day that Dunn is traded, I just wonder what his trade value really is. I have a feeling that its not as high as most on this board think it is.

[pedro]

I think steel is right about Dunn. I think he listens to advice from everyone and is incapable of weeding out the good from the bad.

[NJReds]

I dont know if the Yankees would do it and I wouldnt be surprised if they wanted more than Dunn. Though if they wanted to I would hope the Reds would say yes to it.

Abreu, Matsui, Melky, Giambi and Wilson = no room at the inn for Dunn.

[flyer85]

So true. this would be funny, if wasn't so sad.

This is the progress this team has made? Down by one, one out, ninth inning, and Juan Castro as a PH?Or Rey Olmedo in the 7th. Thus the game ends and the guy who leads the league in PH HRs never gets to swing the bat, go figure.

[CTA513]

Abreu, Matsui, Melky, Giambi and Wilson = no room at the inn for Dunn.

The Yankees could trade the extra guys for pitching, which is something they also need.

[Heath]

I will party the day that Dunn is traded, I just wonder what his trade value really is. I have a feeling that its not as high as most on this board think it is.

Be careful. Supposively Kearns and Lopez had 'high value' on this board. Are you saying that Dunn does NOT have the same value as either one of those?

[flyer85]

I think steel is right about Dunn. I think he listens to advice from everyone and is incapable of weeding out the good from the bad.He is likely a people pleaser and that isn't going to change.

[Reds Fanatic]

I think steel is right about Dunn. I think he listens to advice from everyone and is incapable of weeding out the good from the bad.
I think that is true he needs one good coach to teach him and everyone else needs to leave him alone. I saw Dunn when he started with Dayton and back then he had a lot of bad habits at the plate. He would pretty much swing at everything. It wasn't until he got to AA that he got a good hitting coach at Chattanooga that really turned around his career. Up here in the majors he goes throught streaks and I think part of it is as soon as he starts to go bad he gets all this different advice and I think he is totally confused at times.

[flyer85]

all I can say is judging by what the Reds acquired for Kearns/Lopez, I highly doubt that many will like the return for Dunn.

[OldXOhio]

Well, I can amend it to say either he or EdE is the best hitter on the team.

That used to mean something. And while i agree with you about Dunn, my vote goes to EE.

[redsfanmia]

Be careful. Supposively Kearns and Lopez had 'high value' on this board. Are you saying that Dunn does NOT have the same value as either one of those?


Thats my point just because people on this board think that Dunn has "high value" doesnt necessarily make it so.

[BRM]

all I can say is judging by what the Reds acquired for Kearns/Lopez, I highly doubt that many will like the return for Dunn.

I think it's a mortal lock that most will not like the return for Dunn.

[Kc61]

I think steel is right about Dunn. I think he listens to advice from everyone and is incapable of weeding out the good from the bad.

I think this will soon be somebody else's problem, not the Reds'. I don't think Krivsky will live with both Griff and Dunn next year. They have power, but at this stage little else.

Griff is very hard to deal. Dunn has a $13 million option coming up in 2008, and it's hard to see Krivsky ever paying it.

Draw whatever conclusion you want.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I think it's a mortal lock that most will not like the return for Dunn.

Not if it's the same as the return for Kearns and Lopez.

Nothing.

[OldXOhio]

I think it's a mortal lock that most will not like the return for Dunn.

Unless the return ended up being a #1 and an OF consistently OPS'ing over .900, this board will explode.

[BRM]

Unless the return ended up being a #1 and an OF consistently OPS'ing over .900, this board will explode.

I don't think Wayne nets that in return for Dunn.

[westofyou]

we have seen the profile of the kind of player than WK is enamored with and the Twins won during his time there with no bonafide power hitter(Morneau became the first Twin to hit 30 HRs in a season in forever).

And they play on concrete in a football stadium, that has a lot to do with that approach.


I will party the day that Dunn is traded

Yep, those 40 HR/100RBI/100 Run guys pop up weekly.

Hurray Eddie Milner!!!

[OldXOhio]

I don't think Wayne nets that in return for Dunn.

I'm not saying he could - I'm simply answering to the expectations of many here.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

What us fans actually want is more aging middle relievers and infielders.

Good times!

[flyer85]

I think this will soon be somebody else's problem, not the Reds'. I don't think Krivsky will live with both Griff and Dunn next year. They have power, but at this stage little else.

Griff is very hard to deal. Dunn has a $13 million option coming up in 2008, and it's hard to see Krivsky ever paying it.

Draw whatever conclusion you want.He doesn't have to pay Dunn, just decline the option and his option voids if he is traded. Thus if you are going to trade and hope to get any kind of return it must be done this off-season.

The Reds have major issues to deal with in the off-season and nothing is likely off the table. What worries me is that after watching the string of mostly nothings that WK has acquired since the break I am not sure he knows how to identify somthings. He may be able to but he hasn't shown the ability to this point. Instead he traded for guys that had some success but when you dug deeper into their numbers it pointed to the fact that it was mostly smoke and mirrors.

[OldXOhio]

We'll see how WK reacts without the pressure of a penant race on his mind. I for one am anxious to see what he comes up with.

[Sea Ray]

The only one who can help/fix Adam Dunn is Adam Dunn. If he comes to Spring Training focused and 25 lbs lighter I say look out MVP.

[flyer85]

We'll see how WK reacts without the pressure of a penant race on his mind. I for one am anxious to see what he comes up with.I for one am not optimistic about what he will come up with.

[CTA513]

So who is going to replace Dunn if hes traded? Denorfia, Hopper or Wise?
If you dont pick up a big RBI guy to replace Dunn then we will be seeing guys like Griffey, Encarnacion, Aurilia being walked in key situations.

[REDREAD]

I wonder if they are going to really bring back Narron next year. I know he was extended but this team is now 39-47 since they announced his extension.

I say yes, Narron is a lock to come back

[Chip R]

So who is going to replace Dunn if hes traded? Denorfia, Hopper or Wise?


Deno is so good he replaces both Dunn and Kearns. ;)

[Reds4Life]

So now we are back to the "Dunn sucks" stuff again?

Oy.

[osuceltic]

What worries me is that after watching the string of mostly nothings that WK has acquired since the break I am not sure he knows how to identify somthings.

You mean guys like Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips, Dave Ross and Scott Hatteberg?

Other than Kearns/Lopez, he hasn't traded anything of consequence. He spent the second half of the season trying to piece together enough to get this team to the postseason. Doesn't look like it's going to work, but it's not like he wildly overpaid for guys like Guardado, Lohse (both of whom have performed well), Cormier, Franklin, etc.

It's fine if you want to knock him for the Kearns/Lopez deal. It didn't turn out as well as anyone hoped. But Krivsky deserves credit for the great deals he made also. The second-half churn? That's not worth getting worked up about.

I wouldn't be surprised if he deals Dunn this offseason. As others have said, it's almost a sure thing that either Griffey or Dunn goes, and Griffey is virtually untradeable. If the deal improves the pitching and defense, it probably will be a fair trade that gets hammered by the fantasy baseball "experts."

[Kc61]

So who is going to replace Dunn if hes traded? Denorfia, Hopper or Wise?
If you dont pick up a big RBI guy to replace Dunn then we will be seeing guys like Griffey, Encarnacion, Aurilia being walked in key situations.


Reds will have to pick up an outfielder who can hit. Either in the trade or in free agency. No doubt about it.

[REDREAD]

If Narron or Krivsky HAVE had the conversation I speak of with Dunn, then kudos to them. If not, that's a real issue because those conversations do need to take place when culture swings happen.

Well, all we've seen reported is that Team Clark said that around the time of the Kearns trade, Wayne (or someone on the Reds) had the big heart to heart with Adam and he supposedly saw the light.

I'm not sure Team Clark exactly reported what they told Dunn to do.. Was it focus on defense? Or something else? I don't know.

Again, I'm not majorly down on Dunn. I just think he's miscasted as a cleanup hitter. But I wonder if the Reds braintrust is down on him. As someone else said, it's pretty clear what Wayne values the most, and I don't think Dunn is it. That's not a condemnation of Dunn, just my guess on what's going through Wayne's mind.

[REDREAD]

I will party the day that Dunn is traded, I just wonder what his trade value really is. I have a feeling that its not as high as most on this board think it is.

Be careful what you wish for. Washington probably will offer a couple more Majewskis, and Wayne will be tempted.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

We'll see how WK reacts without the pressure of a penant race on his mind. I for one am anxious to see what he comes up with.

I for one, will be interested to see how he dumps some of the garbage he has accumulated. That and dumping some Milton and Griffey contracts on some poor souls.

That will be more exciting to me than anything he collects in return or adds via FA.

This team isn't a contender in 2007. Might as well dump Milton, free up some $$ and negotiate a longterm deal (Harang), find anyone in the AL that will take Griffey, and move Dunn to 1B.

Maybe by 2007, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Dunn (1B), EE, BP, and a veteran Denorfia will be the foundation of something, as long as Arroyo and Harang are still around and WK has not completely Majewskied the bullpen makeover.

[osuceltic]

By the way, don't forget that Dunn's OPS has dropped by 30 points each of the last two seasons. He's still productive, but he's trending down fairly significantly.

[REDREAD]

I think it's a mortal lock that most will not like the return for Dunn.

I bet about half will like the trade, whatever it is. Think about it. If you did a poll last year and said "Would you trade Kearns and Lopez for two relief pitchers?" The response would've been an overwhelming "NO". Yet, at the time of the trade, I think about 1/3 liked it, 1/3 hated it, and 1/3 was undecided. (I think that was the poll result.)

[CTA513]

Be careful what you wish for. Washington probably will offer a couple more Majewskis, and Wayne will be tempted.

Trade him to the Nationals for Ramon Ortiz and Ryan Wagner.


;)

[Aronchis]

I for one, will be interested to see how he dumps some of the garbage he has accumulated. That and dumping some Milton and Griffey contracts on some poor souls.

That will be more exciting to me than anything he collects in return or adds via FA.

This team isn't a contender in 2007. Might as well dump Milton, free up some $$ and negotiate a longterm deal (Harang), find anyone in the AL that will take Griffey, and move Dunn to 1B.

Maybe by 2007, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Dunn (1B), EE, BP, and a veteran Denorfia will be the foundation of something, as long as Arroyo and Harang are still around and WK has not completely Majewskied the bullpen makeover.


Dunn isn't going to 1st base.

[flyer85]

You mean guys like Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips, Dave Ross and Scott Hatteberg?
the caveat was from July on. I for one am firmly on the side of Ross and Hatty as one year flukes.

He gave up something for Arroyo, and Phillips is exactly the kind of player you take a chance on (young guy who costs nothing and could benefit from a change of scenery).

But from July on he became a GM that mostly was not able to distinguish talent from luck and thus you end up dealing for guys like Cormier and Majewski(and I am not sold on Bray either, there is nothing in his resume to suggest he will be anything other than ordinary). And for those trades the Reds paid a price.

[westofyou]

By the way, don't forget that Dunn's OPS has dropped by 30 points each of the last two seasons. He's still productive, but he's trending down fairly significantly.

NL OPS dropped 12 points 2004 -2005 that's a factor.

[flyer85]

a 30 point OPS drop could be entirely random. Having said that I think this year has to be categorized as a minor disappointment for Dunn.

[REDREAD]

Reds will have to pick up an outfielder who can hit. Either in the trade or in free agency. No doubt about it.

IMO, they already need to pick up an OF. Freel is not the answer everyday.

It would've been great if he could've maintained that monster OBP playing every day, but I really question if he can now. I don't want him being the starting RF on opening day. At bare minimum get a guy to share the position with him (and not Deno).

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Dunn isn't going to 1st base.


And the Reds will always be - the Reds.

ZZZZ.

[westofyou]

a 30 point OPS drop could be entirely random. Having said that I think this year has to be categorized as a minor disappointment for Dunn.

No doubt, next year is year 27, I keep him soley for that.

Even despite the belief that Andre Dawson will be able to step in and replace Dunn.

[flyer85]

No doubt, next year is year 27, I keep him soley for that.there is adequate historical precedent for bigger guys finally figuring out as they edge toward 30 (Frank Howard and Derek Lee come to mind).

[oneupper]

NL OPS dropped 12 points 2004 -2005 that's a factor.

Barry was injured.

[flyer85]

IMO, they already need to pick up an OF. Freel is not the answer everyday.Chris Young sure would look nice about now.

[BRM]

From Marc's blog.


Jerry Narron, when asked if he considered bunting Aurilia to move Clayton to third:

"No way. No. He’s swinging the bat really well. Knew they were going to come in with Kline on Dunn and Dunn has just as good a chance of hitting the ball out of the ballpark as he does getting him in from third base.

"Shoot – you’re going to take the bat out of the hands of the guy who’s been your hottest hitter over the last 10 days? Not me."

[WMR]

We'll see how WK reacts without the pressure of a penant race on his mind. I for one am anxious to see what he comes up with.

Color me NERVOUS. :eek:

[traderumor]

So now we are back to the "Dunn sucks" stuff again?

Oy.Power hitter who K's a lot in a slump will do that

[REDREAD]

Chris Young sure would look nice about now.

Yep.

[vaticanplum]

Oh my lord Steel and company, you keep quiet, don't even wish for such a thing. I understand what you're saying but the solution is not to ship Dunn off; it's to fix the stupid guys who are messing him up and smack them across the face when they don't appreciate him. No more Kearns, no more FeLo = Dunn stays, ie. somebody appreciates the fact that he is one of the most valuable Reds in recent memory. So the solution here is to change their approach towards him, not to get rid of him.

I was at the game today, which sucked awfully, obviously. I really need to stop going to see them -- they are 1-5 with me in attendance this year, 0-3 at Great American, ie. I have yet to see the Reds win a game there ever. The hitting, despite .5 seconds of intelligence, was awful, but in all fairness the pitching was not that bad. Schoenweis had about three or four terrific pitches that were the highlight of my day, really terrific stuff.

All that aside, that ballpark is really growing on me. What an absolutely perfect place to spend an afternoon, up in the sun, beer, scorecard, view, baseball...I think the park is well-done and underrated. There were five people there. Three were Giants fans. And yes, they all booed the last time Dunn struck out.

[edabbs44]

Be careful what you wish for. Washington probably will offer a couple more Majewskis, and Wayne will be tempted.

Nope, Wayne will target Harden who is 2 pitches away from TJ. I haven't seen any posts on Guardado and his pending surgery...I hope Wayne implemented a good health insurance plan.

[Falls City Beer]

All that aside, that ballpark is really growing on me. What an absolutely perfect place to spend an afternoon, up in the sun, beer, scorecard, view, baseball...I think the park is well-done and underrated. There were five people there. Three were Giants fans. And yes, they all booed the last time Dunn struck out.


I completely agree. The Reds do a ton of things wrong, but the park isn't one of them. It's absolutely first-rate, IMO. I love that it's so open and not goofy retro. And the light-towers are marvelous. Love the park. Now get a good team in it.

[mbgrayson]

Aurilia should have been bunting in the 8th.

I am glad Aurilia wasn't bunting. The number of expected runs drops with a runner on third and one out, as compared to a runner on second and no outs.

See THIS LINK (http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php)for a detailed discussion of this. On average, a situation with a runner on third and one out, assuming the bunt is successful, yields about .907 runs on average. A runner on second with no outs yields 1.054 runs on average. When you bunt, there is always a chance of an unsuccesful bunt. But even if successful, you would be a worse situation than before.

This is even more true with Aurilia, a .300 hitter at the plate, and Dunn on deck. Three times out of ten Aurilia will score the runner on a hit. If Dunn comes up with a runner on third and one out, he has a significant chance of striking out, as he did. All year, Dunn has only 3 sac flies (in 600 plate appearances). Dunn is NOT a good contact hitter, and his chances of advancing a runner on third are below average. (Of course if he hits a HR, the runner scores regardless of what base they were on...)

On this one, Narron played the odds and lost. But at least it was the right statistical decision. See Narrons comments over on Marc's blog HERE (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/09/regarding-eighth.asp#comments).

[Big Klu]

I had to work today, so I didn't see the game. However, I taped it and just finished watching it. (I didn't know the outcome until I actually watched it.) It was a disappointing loss, IMO, especially since Felipe Alou was using a "Sunday Special" lineup of his own against the Reds' best lineup vs. LHP given the current circumstances regarding Griffey.


A few observations:

1) I thought Sun-Woo Kim pitched pretty well after a shaky first two innings. (It looked like he had the jitters at the beginning of the game.) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K is not a bad line.

2) Norris Hopper had a nice PH-single in the fifth. (For some reason, he reminds me of Greg Tubbs from 1993.)

3) Ryan Franklin allowing a HR to Ray Durham on an 0-2 pitch is unforgivable! There are two things in baseball I can't stand--batters taking called third strikes, and pitchers throwing hittable 0-2 pitches.

4) Scott Hatteberg should have pinch-hit for Royce Clayton in the 8th inning. It worked out, as Royce hit an RBI double, but Hatte still should have been up in that situation.


No changes today.

Updated Reds HR list (players in italics are active):

Reds All-Time Home Run Leaders
1. Johnny Bench - 389
2. Frank Robinson - 324
3. Tony Perez - 287
4. Ted Kluszewski - 251
5. George Foster - 244
6. Eric Davis - 203
7. Barry Larkin - 198
8. Adam Dunn - 197
9. Vada Pinson - 186
10. Wally Post - 172
11. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 164
12. Gus Bell - 160
13. Joe Morgan - 152
13. Pete Rose - 152
15. Lee May - 147
16. Dan Driessen - 133
17. Reggie Sanders - 125
18. Ernie Lombardi - 120
19. Sean Casey - 118
20. Frank McCormick - 110
21. Dave Parker - 107
22. Chris Sabo - 104
23. Dave Concepcion - 101
24. Gordy Coleman - 98
25. Paul O'Neill - 96

[lollipopcurve]

A few observations:

1) I thought Sun-Woo Kim pitched pretty well after a shaky first two innings. (It looked like he had the jitters at the beginning of the game.) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K is not a bad line.

2) Norris Hopper had a nice PH-single in the fifth. (For some reason, he reminds me of Greg Tubbs from 1993.)

3) Ryan Franklin allowing a HR to Ray Durham on an 0-2 pitch is unforgivable! There are two things in baseball I can't stand--batters taking called third strikes, and pitchers throwing hittable 0-2 pitches.

4) Scott Hatteberg should have pinch-hit for Royce Clayton in the 8th inning. It worked out, as Royce hit an RBI double, but Hatte still should have been up in that situation.

Interesting points. I have some related thoughts.

1. Kim got hammered. His line conceals the fact that there were several rockets hit right at people.

2. I like Hopper. He's got a nice short stroke and it seems like he'd make a lot of hard contact (though without much power). He should be on the 40-man going into next year, and I'd like to see him make the team. I'm not sure he isn't better than Denorfia.

3. Ryan Franklin inspires no confidence in me.

4. Hatteberg should have hit for Ross in the 8th. Ross had an absolutely terrible game offensively and defensively. He looked tired to me, coming back after a night game.

And...

5. Dunn is fried. The guy needs a rest every now and then.