Is Dunn gone this winter?

[cincrazy]

Does anyone else get the feeling that Dunn could be gone this offseason? Krivsky's shown that he's more than willing to make a controversial move, and in recent comments he made to some of the ESPN announcers, he bluntly stated that the big guys in the middle of the order (Griffey and Dunn) have not produced like management thought they would. I would not be surprised in the least if Dunn were shipped out in order to bring more important pieces to this club. Now obviously this would drain the offense of a lot of power, and maybe they wait to deal Dunn until Votto, Bruce and other's are ready to come in and offset some of the power loss. I'm not going to go so far as to predict that Dunn will be gone, but I think that Krivsky also realizes that the core of this team is flawed, and I don't think he would hesitate to make a move to bolster other parts of this team significantly. Now I'm not stating one way or another whether I would want Dunn gone, it most certainly depends on who we're talking about trading him for. I just really see Krivsky making major moves this winter, and this just might be one of them.

[BRM]

I think Wayne will attempt to trade Dunn this winter. I just hope he can get a good return for him.

[RedsManRick]

I think Dunn very well could be dangled, but I hope Krivsky realizes that this team is not far from going from a power happy team to a power poor team. Griffey is in steep decline. Dave Ross will likely not hit 20 homers next year. Same with Aurilia. If Dunn is traded, and you have to believe that pitching would be part of the package, I would want a solid corner OF coming back as well.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

WK will deal Dunn to the Astros for a young pitcher, Luke Scott, and Burke.

Just a guess.

[redsmetz]

I would hope they don't. I know Dunn seems one dimensional to many, but I'd hate to let him go and then see Frank Robinson redux (I know they're different types of players).

[CTA513]

If you trade Dunn I would hope you have someone besides Denorfia to replace him.

[BRM]

I would think Wayne would look for a relatively cheap outfielder to replace him with. I'm not sure he looks for power though. He'll most likely grab a good defensive outfielder and slide Griffey to a corner with Freel and Deno manning the other side. Either way, I think the offense takes another hit when Dunn leaves.

[flyer85]

If the Reds are going to trade him, this off-season is the most likely time.

[scounts22]

If the Reds are going to trade him, this off-season is the most likely time.

This has absolutely nothing to do with this thread or this post, but Ricardo, I just realized what your name means. :ughmamoru

And, by the way, I hope :dunn: stays. This team needs his production. Yes he does strike out often, but statistically, how many categories does he lead on this team? I'm not much of a stat-head myself so I don't really keep up on that info, but I would tend to think he leads several.

[ThatPitchIsDunn]

If Wayne is able to go blockbuster with FA signings, like say getting Hunter/Wells and a serviceable starter (see Ohka, Tomo), then I wouldn't be opposed to it for a surefire #1. If we can't get Vernon or Torii, it really worries me, because it puts that much more pressure on Jr in the middle of the lineup. If he's responding in a mediocre fashion in the 3 spot, what happens when he's cleanup?

Just to think out loud though, if WK is able to pull off those two FA signings, here's our lineup for next year:

Freel
Hatteberg
Wells/Hunter
Eddie
Griffey
B-Phil
Ross
new SS (I'd love Alex Gonzalez here)

Griffey in left, Freel in right, maybe switch B-Phil and Hatte when Aurilia's in there.

Starting pitching of Guy we get for Dunn/Harang/Arroyo/Ohka/Milton


I'm sure it's wishful thinking, but I don't mind this team. Now if only we can afford it...

[jamess697]

I think that it would be stupid to deal done when his value right now is at it's lowest point, the possiblity of getting a high line pitcher and a decent replacement for Dunn is unlikely. I think we should tough it out and still try to ride it out with Dunn. Put him on a workout regiment and work on hitting the 0-2 off speed pitch!

[jamess697]

I think that it would be stupid to deal Dunn when his value right now is at it's lowest point, the possiblity of getting a high line pitcher and a decent replacement for Dunn is unlikely. I think we should tough it out and still try to ride it out with Dunn. Put him on a workout regiment and work on hitting the 0-2 off speed pitch!

[flyer85]

This has absolutely nothing to do with this thread or this post, but Ricardo, I just realized what your name means. it can be hard to live up to.


And, by the way, I hope :dunn: stays. I would agree but the future of this team lies after 2008(when Jr and Dunns contracts expire). If WK makes the assessment that he can't win now then he may well decide to trade Dunn. What troubles me about that is that I'm not sure he will target the players he should be.

[RedsManRick]

What is Vernon Wells' status? If we could trade Dunn and prospect(s) for Wells and a starter prospects I'd be thrilled. Given that Ricarddi is a sabermetrics guy, you have to imagine that he'd value Dunn. Their DH right now is Frank Catalanato and their LF is Reed Johnson. You have to believe that Rios or Johnson could play CF and Dunn could split time in LF and DH. Wells is a very similar player to Torii Hunter, but without quite as much hype. Anyways, just thinking out loud...

[dabvu2498]

What is Vernon Wells' status?

Wells is in the 3rd year of a 5 year deal that has him at a reasonable price (4-5 per over the next two). So you'd have him for 2 years before the Yankees get him.

Article in the Toronto Star that JP wants to keep him there after this contract is up: http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1157493014268&call_pageid=968332188492

[guttle11]

I would hope they don't. I know Dunn seems one dimensional to many, but I'd hate to let him go and then see Frank Robinson redux (I know they're different types of players).

I hate this arguement for keeping Dunn. Who cares how good he may get? If you get the right deal for him (solid ML starter, solid OFer, top level pitching propspect) you do it.

Whether or not we can get that deal is another story. I try. If there's no takers, keep him.

[big boy]

It would be very surprising if they will go into next season with Griffey and Dunn in the same outfield. They need a center fielder with much better range and, since he can't be traded, Griffey will move to left.

[toledodan]

If you trade Dunn I would hope you have someone besides Denorfia to replace him.


that was the major problem when we traded kearns. dunn should have been dealt because of a better return. i was all for trading dunn before pena and kearns were dealt but not now. we have nobody outside of griffey that is a true power threat that plays the outfield. even though dunn isn't a complete player he is a true power threat that we must keep.

[Will M]

Dunn may not be Ryan Howard but he will get 100 rbis & score 100 runs.

We need a 3/4/5 punch in the lineup for 2007.
Encarnacion can bat 3rd or 4th.
Dunn can bat 5th.
Griffey is NOT a #3 hitter - he should be ~6th/7th.
Right now we need another offensive stud ( ?? Tori HUnter ).
If we trade Dunn we will need 2 offensive studs.

- Will

[ChatterRed]

Dunn may not be Ryan Howard but he will get 100 rbis & score 100 runs.

We need a 3/4/5 punch in the lineup for 2007.
Encarnacion can bat 3rd or 4th.
Dunn can bat 5th.
Griffey is NOT a #3 hitter - he should be ~6th/7th.
Right now we need another offensive stud ( ?? Tori HUnter ).
If we trade Dunn we will need 2 offensive studs.

- Will


An offensive stud, in my opinion, makes far better contact than Dunn does and bats atleast .280.

[TOBTTReds]

If Wayne is able to go blockbuster with FA signings, like say getting Hunter/Wells

We would have to get a good hitting outfielder, or a great fielding outfielder to justify letting Dunn go. Otherwise, if we trade Dunn, our OF once was a HUGE strength of this team, would be very depleted.

I thought Dunn/Griffey/Kearns or Wily Mo was our OF til atleast 09 for a long time.

[westofyou]

An offensive stud, in my opinion, makes far better contact than Dunn does and bats atleast .280.

Yeah like Reggie Jackson... no strike that, .262 and all those K's.. Ok... Mike Schmidt.. darn, .267, Killebrew then... umm wait.. .256, Ok... Frank Howard then.... shoot, .273.

[Stingray]

If we got a similar return for Dunn that we received for Kearns/Lopez we'd finish last next year.

[dabvu2498]

Yeah like Reggie Jackson... no strike that, .262 and all those K's.. Ok... Mike Schmidt.. darn, .267, Killebrew then... umm wait.. .256, Ok... Frank Howard then.... shoot, .273.

Joe Morgan, Eddie Mathews, Willie McCovey, Tony Perez, and Ernie Banks all say hello from <.280 as well. (Let's not even list all the HOF catchers from under.280ville.)

[ChatterRed]

Yeah like Reggie Jackson... no strike that, .262 and all those K's.. Ok... Mike Schmidt.. darn, .267, Killebrew then... umm wait.. .256, Ok... Frank Howard then.... shoot, .273.


That was then. This is now. You need to wake up and know the difference between the old days and modern days.

[westofyou]

That was then. This is now. You need to wake up and know the difference between the old days and modern days.

Really?

You mean like noting stuff like more guys were batting average driven back then and thus the aforementioned guys BA's look even worse in comparison?

Or that walks are more widley recognized as an important part of the game then back then?

Or is there some other newfangled thing I'm missing out there in the fast paced world of professional baseball?

[osuceltic]

Joe Morgan, Eddie Mathews, Willie McCovey, Tony Perez, and Ernie Banks all say hello from <.280 as well. (Let's not even list all the HOF catchers from under.280ville.)

How about <.250?

[Reds1]

I don't see it. We just don't have OF ready. He's still very valuable to the Reds

[RollyInRaleigh]

Too bad Ted Kluszewski isn't available. I'd trade Dunn for Ted.

[westofyou]

Too bad Ted Kluszewski isn't available. I'd trade Dunn for Ted.
He had Jim Thomes back though, you'd be able to sit him more and the work he'd get on it (these days) would help.

[icehole3]

I'm in the Dunn shouldnt be traded group. I wish he would dedicate the off season to fielding his position better instead of going hunting. His offense is to valuable to this team. I take into account what Hank Aaron says about offensive production.

"Home runs are something you can hit when your team is five runs behind or you're five runs ahead," Aaron said. "I always said that one thing I wanted to do each year was to go out and bat in more than 100 runs and score more than 100 runs. I felt like I was helping my team."

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/0811MLBfill0811.html

That did it for me. What the Reds need to do is get as much pitching signed as they can during the off season and add as many rbi guys to this team to help Dunn.

[westofyou]

How about <.250?

Mike Schmidt - 26 and under

.252/.369/.500/.869

Killebrew - 26 and under

.257/.367/.532/.899

Dunn - 26 and under

.247/.381/.519/.900

30 more hits for Dunn in his career and he's batting .258, better then both guys listed above him.... 30 hits in 6 seasons, 5 hits a year.

[redsmetz]

Yeah like Reggie Jackson... no strike that, .262 and all those K's.. Ok... Mike Schmidt.. darn, .267, Killebrew then... umm wait.. .256, Ok... Frank Howard then.... shoot, .273.

:clap:

[Cyclone792]

CAREER
AVERAGE <= .270

RUNS CREATED/GAME RATE PLAYER LEAGUE AVG
1 Mark McGwire 173 8.47 4.90 .263
2 Mike Schmidt 161 7.22 4.49 .267
3 Harmon Killebrew 153 6.68 4.35 .256
4 Reggie Jackson 142 6.14 4.33 .262
5 Adam Dunn 142 7.27 5.14 .248
6 Jack Clark 141 6.36 4.50 .267
7 Bernie Carbo 141 6.13 4.36 .264
8 Darryl Strawberry 141 6.45 4.59 .259
9 Jim Gentile 140 6.42 4.59 .260
10 Gene Tenace 139 6.05 4.34 .241
11 Boog Powell 139 5.86 4.21 .266
12 Bill Nicholson 138 6.60 4.78 .268
13 Rocky Colavito 136 6.09 4.49 .266
14 Bobby Bonds 135 5.96 4.40 .268
15 Oscar Gamble 135 5.92 4.38 .265
16 Eric Davis 135 6.41 4.76 .269
17 Bob Allison 133 5.87 4.41 .255
18 Roger Maris 133 5.99 4.50 .260
19 John Mayberry 133 5.70 4.29 .253
20 Jimmy Wynn 133 5.76 4.34 .250
21 Kirk Gibson 132 6.03 4.59 .268
22 Mike Epstein 132 5.44 4.13 .244
23 Rick Monday 131 5.70 4.34 .264
24 Randy Milligan 131 5.85 4.46 .261
25 Jason Thompson 130 5.75 4.42 .261



CAREER
AGE <= 26
AVERAGE <= .270

RUNS CREATED/GAME RATE PLAYER LEAGUE AVG
1 John Mayberry 164 6.83 4.17 .266
2 Darryl Strawberry 155 6.95 4.50 .266
3 Reggie Jackson 150 6.20 4.12 .258
4 Mike Schmidt 150 6.65 4.42 .252
5 Barry Bonds 148 6.66 4.49 .269
6 Harmon Killebrew 145 6.93 4.77 .257
7 Adam Dunn 142 7.27 5.14 .248
8 Mark McGwire 140 6.30 4.50 .253
9 Roger Maris 138 6.45 4.68 .261
10 Willie Horton 135 5.52 4.08 .269
11 Rocky Colavito 135 6.28 4.67 .267
12 Joe Morgan 133 5.89 4.44 .265
13 Boog Powell 131 5.50 4.18 .259
14 Jimmy Wynn 131 5.43 4.16 .257
15 Jason Thompson 130 5.74 4.41 .262
16 Bobby Grich 130 5.36 4.14 .261
17 Rick Monday 128 5.32 4.15 .261
18 Tony Conigliaro 126 5.40 4.27 .266
19 Jeff Burroughs 126 5.39 4.27 .258
20 Vic Saier 126 5.35 4.26 .265
21 Rico Petrocelli 125 5.12 4.08 .255
22 Bill Freehan 123 5.04 4.08 .262
23 Curt Blefary 120 4.93 4.11 .239
24 Troy Glaus 119 6.19 5.18 .253
25 Dale Murphy 119 5.30 4.45 .265

[texasdave]

does dunn to the astros for jason hirsch, troy patten and hunter pence sound fair to anybody?

[cincrazy]

Dunn was quoted in a recent article as saying "What can we do? We can take more batting practice, but that won't help any" (might be slightly paraphrased). That quote was in regards to the team's slump. While on the other hand, Dunn's buddy Griffey has built a Hall of Fame career on being noted for going into the cage more when he's in a slump. I like Dunn, but sometimes his attitude and his actions just drive me crazy.

[redsmetz]

Too bad Ted Kluszewski isn't available. I'd trade Dunn for Ted.

Not to take anything away from Big Klu, because he was great, but Adam Dunn at 26 is ahead of Ted, IMO.

Through 5 full seasons (give or take a handful of games):

Dunner
799 games
197 HR's
462 RBI's
511 Runs

Big Klu
546 games
58 HR's
315 RBI's
263 Runs

Klu didn't have his first 40 Home Run season until he was 28 and those four seasons he hit 171 home runs, finishing his career with the Reds with 251 Home Runs, 886 RBI's playing in 1339 games.

While Dunn looks like he dogs it sometimes, I don't think you replace his ability easily. I'm not saying he's a HOF, but I like his upside. This has been a tough season for him. Let's not give up on him.

[cinredsfan2000]

I wouldnt like to see dunn playing anywhere else but cincy. But if we got vernon wells in return that wouldnt be a bad move . That and wells has 2 less years of wear and tear on his body than hunter who i just seem to think is another K.G. Jr. waiting to happen what with 9 years of playing on the metrodome turf . Granted i know who could of predicted Griff. breaking down like he did but im just leary of hunter call me superstitious i guess.:(

[KronoRed]

Trading Dunn would be insanely foolish.

[RichRed]

Dunn is a legit 600+ career HR guy in the works. I'd rather see him do that in a Reds uniform. Of course, I still wouldn't put it past Krivsky to seek a trade if he's bothered by that pesky batting average thing. I hope he doesn't though.

[IslandRed]

I've been of the opinion that this winter is when trading Dunn becomes a reasonable topic for discussion. It's not about his ability or what type of ballplayer he is or any of that. It's a simple matter of resources; we're not the Yankees who can pay whoever we want whatever they want. Dunn will get $10.5 million next year and $13 million the year after, if we want him. He's reached the point where he can't really be called a bargain anymore. As such, it's always possible that he could be traded if a particular combination of "what we could get for him" and "what we'd spend that money on instead" would yield a better ballclub.

Not saying we should actively seek to move him, mind you.

[big boy]

Mike Schmidt - 26 and under

.252/.369/.500/.869



Comparing him to one of the best defensive 3b all time doesn't make Dunner look so good. Dunner's batting stats would be great in the AL where he can DH. I'd say it is time to remove Schmidt from your "Dunner is as good as these guys in the Hall" list. Maybe it would be more interesting to see where Dunner would land on a list of the all-time worst defensive left fielders instead?

[RichRed]

Comparing him to one of the best defensive 3b all time doesn't make Dunner look so good. Dunner's batting stats would be great in the AL where he can DH. I'd say it is time to remove Schmidt from your "Dunner is as good as these guys in the Hall" list. Maybe it would be more interesting to see where Dunner would land on a list of the all-time worst defensive left fielders instead?

And Schmidt committed buckets of errors as a youngster and was booed mercilessly by Phillies fans. I'd say the comparison is pretty strong.

[BRM]

The part of the discussion that got Schmidt's name brought up was the batting average argument. Defense was never part of the comparisons. WOY was simply responding to the "a stud offensive player hits at least .280" comment.

[westofyou]

Comparing him to one of the best defensive 3b all time doesn't make Dunner look so good. Dunner's batting stats would be great in the AL where he can DH. I'd say it is time to remove Schmidt from your "Dunner is as good as these guys in the Hall" list. Maybe it would be more interesting to see where Dunner would land on a list of the all-time worst defensive left fielders instead?

Say stud hitter and I'll assume we're talking batting.

Defense matters, bring it up and we'll discuss it for sure.

Bring up the defense of a left fielder and the impact on the team defense and we'll discuss it. I can assure you there are plenty who are way worse then Adam Dunn on his worst day.

We could go on and on if we wanted... good times.

[westofyou]

And Schmidt committed buckets of errors as a youngster and was booed mercilessly by Phillies fans. I'd say the comparison is pretty strong.

I remember Mike Schmidt and the huge amount of crap he got, but from what I heard that was then. This is now.

[kbrake]

This is turning into the season from hell. The team keeps things interesting by playing over their collective heads up until a brutal stretch out west. Now instead of people realizing this mediocre team is just coming back to earth, they want to put all the blame on the teams best player. Think the offense is struggling now? Cant wait to see it next season without the guy who has been 1 or 2 in HR, RBI, runs, OBP, SLG, for what the past 3 seasons. I really hope Krivsky sees through this crap.

[BoxingRed]

If Wayne is able to go blockbuster with FA signings, like say getting Hunter/Wells...

Haven't we learned our lesson about picking up a CF with extensive time played on astroturf? Not to mention oft-injured CFs? I love Torii Hunter, but that is a "Griffey" waiting to happen.

[CTA513]

I've been of the opinion that this winter is when trading Dunn becomes a reasonable topic for discussion. It's not about his ability or what type of ballplayer he is or any of that. It's a simple matter of resources; we're not the Yankees who can pay whoever we want whatever they want. Dunn will get $10.5 million next year and $13 million the year after, if we want him. He's reached the point where he can't really be called a bargain anymore. As such, it's always possible that he could be traded if a particular combination of "what we could get for him" and "what we'd spend that money on instead" would yield a better ballclub.

Not saying we should actively seek to move him, mind you.

If you want players to be less expensive then you have to sign them to multi year contracts early in their career. If I remember correctly the Reds gave him a 1 year contract before signing him to his 2 to 3 year contract he has now. His salary went from $445,000 in 2004 to $4,600,000 in 2005 to $7,500,000 in 2006.

Harang should have probably been given more than a 1 year contract for this year. He made $440,000 in 2005 and his 1 year contract for 2006 is worth $2,350,000. If the Reds give him a new contract (which Im sure they will) I wouldnt be surprised if his salary jumped up to around $3,500,000 to $4,000,000+.

[TeamBoone]

And, by the way, I hope :dunn: stays. This team needs his production. Yes he does strike out often, but statistically, how many categories does he lead on this team? I'm not much of a stat-head myself so I don't really keep up on that info, but I would tend to think he leads several.

I would absolutely hate to see him in any other unitform for a long long time.

And those statistical categories you mention? Someone posted them all not too long ago in another thread. It was pretty incredible.

[TeamBoone]

I've been of the opinion that this winter is when trading Dunn becomes a reasonable topic for discussion. It's not about his ability or what type of ballplayer he is or any of that. It's a simple matter of resources; we're not the Yankees who can pay whoever we want whatever they want. Dunn will get $10.5 million next year and $13 million the year after, if we want him. He's reached the point where he can't really be called a bargain anymore. As such, it's always possible that he could be traded if a particular combination of "what we could get for him" and "what we'd spend that money on instead" would yield a better ballclub.

Not saying we should actively seek to move him, mind you.

He was signed just this year. I'm sure Krivsky thought the price was right or he wouldn't have made it his top priority the instant he came on board.

[Always Red]

Adam Dunn is the foundation of this team. And should be, for the next 8 years or so. He will only get better with more experience.

If Kriv gets rid of him, it better be for Bob Gibson (in his prime), or Mike Schmidt (in his prime) or another Hall of Famer, because, like it or not (and it seems that most here do not) Adam Dunn is putting Hall of Fame numbers together.

I'm not saying to not trade him (though I would not), because everyone has value. But it best be for Roy Oswalt, or Johan Santana or Joe Maurer, or Carlos Beltran. It seems as if the new Reds are short on outfielders with pop. I'd stick with Dunn.

Because if Adam Dunn keeps doing what he is doing right now, and progresses as most at his age do, he will be a HoF'er.

And that's a fact.

[Newman4]

Anyone for Dunn to SD for Jake Peavy and Clay Hensley?

[jnwohio]

I've been of the opinion that this winter is when trading Dunn becomes a reasonable topic for discussion. It's not about his ability or what type of ballplayer he is or any of that. It's a simple matter of resources; we're not the Yankees who can pay whoever we want whatever they want. Dunn will get $10.5 million next year and $13 million the year after, if we want him. He's reached the point where he can't really be called a bargain anymore. As such, it's always possible that he could be traded if a particular combination of "what we could get for him" and "what we'd spend that money on instead" would yield a better ballclub.

Not saying we should actively seek to move him, mind you.


I believe there is a "poison pill" escalator in Dunn's contract which takes the 3rd year out to $18+ million if he is traded. That is going to make it much more complicated in terms of getting a maximum return if they trade him.

[Cedric]

Adam Dunn is the foundation of this team. And should be, for the next 8 years or so. He will only get better with more experience.

If Kriv gets rid of him, it better be for Bob Gibson (in his prime), or Mike Schmidt (in his prime) or another Hall of Famer, because, like it or not (and it seems that most here do not) Adam Dunn is putting Hall of Fame numbers together.

I'm not saying to not trade him (though I would not), because everyone has value. But it best be for Roy Oswalt, or Johan Santana or Joe Maurer, or Carlos Beltran. It seems as if the new Reds are short on outfielders with pop. I'd stick with Dunn.

Because if Adam Dunn keeps doing what he is doing right now, and progresses as most at his age do, he will be a HoF'er.

And that's a fact.

I wouldn't expect much progression from Adam Dunn at this point. Great player and someone I won't ever complain about, but his prime is now and that's just because of his body type.

[Topcat]

If we got a similar return for Dunn that we received for Kearns/Lopez we'd finish last next year.


Not calling you out ok ? But I am sick as heck about the return comments on Kearns deal. Bray will be good and Kearns is what ? Majik may dud out but I truly believe he will be a important factor in our future. jesus all the nitpicking we are not winning the World Series this year people have finally worn me down.:thumbdown . I have loved this year and the positive steps that have been shown by this orginization as a whole. The "body" of work of the overall franchise has shown me great progress over the previous end of the past season.

[HBP]

Haven't we learned our lesson about picking up a CF with extensive time played on astroturf? Not to mention oft-injured CFs? I love Torii Hunter, but that is a "Griffey" waiting to happen.

Agreed, but I would love to see him in CF next year. Unfortunately, it would probably take a 3-4-5 year deal to get him here with some serious $ involved. Signing him to a long term contract would be a unwise investment. Jr. would definitely move to RF if Hunter came in and you can count on him giving you 25 HR's and an .800 OPS season (of course that might go up playing in GABP).

Obviously, a way to make this team better would be to add another quality OF'er and keep Dunn. Like it's been said, we're not the Yankees, so the options are limited.

[johngalt]

Dunn's offensive production doesn't really worry me for the future. He's still just now entering his prime years, and he wasn't even fully concentrated on baseball until a year or two into his minor-league career. I think he'll continue to be a very big contributor offensively, something this team desperately needs given the offensive losses they've suffered recently.

However, I do have a big concern about Adam's work ethic or lack thereof. No, I'm not looking for him to improve his ability to make contact and eliminate strikeouts. That's overblown.

I'm talking about working on his defense and, more importantly, keeping himself in shape. Take a look at photos from 2001-2002 and compare to today and it looks like two completely different people. I really believe he would be much better defensively and even at the plate if he had been able to somewhat maintain that body type. I'm not saying he needs to be a Glenn Braggs workout warrior, but just maintain a good athletic shape. You're talking about a guy now who's going on 300 pounds. That really does not bode well for someone trying to improve his defense in the outfield.

[Team Clark]

Dunn's offensive production doesn't really worry me for the future. He's still just now entering his prime years, and he wasn't even fully concentrated on baseball until a year or two into his minor-league career. I think he'll continue to be a very big contributor offensively, something this team desperately needs given the offensive losses they've suffered recently.

However, I do have a big concern about Adam's work ethic or lack thereof. No, I'm not looking for him to improve his ability to make contact and eliminate strikeouts. That's overblown.

I'm talking about working on his defense and, more importantly, keeping himself in shape. Take a look at photos from 2001-2002 and compare to today and it looks like two completely different people. I really believe he would be much better defensively and even at the plate if he had been able to somewhat maintain that body type. I'm not saying he needs to be a Glenn Braggs workout warrior, but just maintain a good athletic shape. You're talking about a guy now who's going on 300 pounds. That really does not bode well for someone trying to improve his defense in the outfield.

Johngalt... Your comments are on the mark. More so because of the position you are in. Every time I see Adam in person he gets bigger. I'd love to see him get a trainer and improve his trigger muscles and flexibility. JMO.

[reds44]

Build the offense around young Edwin and Sir Adam.

That's what I would do, that is what I think Wayne is doing.

[edabbs44]

Adam Dunn is the foundation of this team. And should be, for the next 8 years or so. He will only get better with more experience.

If Kriv gets rid of him, it better be for Bob Gibson (in his prime), or Mike Schmidt (in his prime) or another Hall of Famer, because, like it or not (and it seems that most here do not) Adam Dunn is putting Hall of Fame numbers together.

I'm not saying to not trade him (though I would not), because everyone has value. But it best be for Roy Oswalt, or Johan Santana or Joe Maurer, or Carlos Beltran. It seems as if the new Reds are short on outfielders with pop. I'd stick with Dunn.

Because if Adam Dunn keeps doing what he is doing right now, and progresses as most at his age do, he will be a HoF'er.

And that's a fact.

Don't be surprised at what Wayne does this off-season. He comes from Minnesota, the land of pitching, defense and non-power hitters. I think Morneau this year was the first Twin to hit 30 HRs since Hrbek or someone of that era.

[jimbo]

Build the offense around young Edwin and Sir Adam.

That's what I would do, that is what I think Wayne is doing.

I would throw Phillips in there also, but I think you're on the mark.

[westofyou]

Don't be surprised at what Wayne does this off-season. He comes from Minnesota, the land of pitching, defense and non-power hitters. I think Morneau this year was the first Twin to hit 30 HRs since Hrbek or someone of that era.

Also the land of turf and mult-iuse stadiums, you are what you eat and your team should be built for where you play.

[johngalt]

Also the land of turf and mult-iuse stadiums, you are what you eat and your team should be built for where you play.

Definitely. That's why I think you'll see Krivsky go after some extreme groundball pitchers this winter.

[edabbs44]

Also the land of turf and mult-iuse stadiums, you are what you eat and your team should be built for where you play.

Agreed, but so far Wayne has shown a tendency towards his past. Just an observation.

[macro]

Take a look at photos from 2001-2002 and compare to today and it looks like two completely different people...You're talking about a guy now who's going on 300 pounds. That really does not bode well for someone trying to improve his defense in the outfield.

Your point is well-taken...

http://cardtarget.com/card_images/28front.gif http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/20060406/dunn_80384.jpg

[Team Clark]

Definitely. That's why I think you'll see Krivsky go after some extreme groundball pitchers this winter.

Derek Lowe would have been a good fit....

[edabbs44]

Derek Lowe would have been a good fit....

So would Pedro. But until an owner commits some serious capital to this team, we won't be seeing an expensive pitcher take the mound (after Milton says his farewell, of course) for a long time. And by serious capital I mean tens of millions to the pitching staff. One Lowe won't do it. They need a few Lowe's, with some relievers as well.

[johngalt]

Derek Lowe would have been a good fit....

Ah, the winter of 2004. The free agency season that left us with Option D(Milton) after whiffing on options A-C (Pavano, Clement, Lowe).

Of course, it's not like Pavano and Clement have lit it up either.

[edabbs44]

Ah, the winter of 2004. The free agency season that left us with Option D(Milton) after whiffing on options A-C (Pavano, Clement, Lowe).

Of course, it's not like Pavano and Clement have lit it up either.

I remember wishing that Pavano would sign with Cincy. Wehn he went to NY, I was heartbroken and then the Reds got Milton. I thought it was a bad signing, but I was excited about one thing...that they actually got a FA starter that other teams wanted. We usually waited for pitchers to leave the hospital shortly after shoulder surgery to make an offer.

I thought it was time for a new era, where they actaully cared about their pitching staff. I thought wrong.

[Team Clark]

I remember wishing that Pavano would sign with Cincy. Wehn he went to NY, I was heartbroken and then the Reds got Milton. I thought it was a bad signing, but I was excited about one thing...that they actually got a FA starter that other teams wanted. We usually waited for pitchers to leave the hospital shortly after shoulder surgery to make an offer.

I thought it was time for a new era, where they actaully cared about their pitching staff. I thought wrong.

I remember there being EXCELLENT discussions on the board about those FA pitchers. I don't think there was much opposition to Lowe. I just don't think Lowe wanted to come here!

[RedsBaron]

I wouldn't expect much progression from Adam Dunn at this point. Great player and someone I won't ever complain about, but his prime is now and that's just because of his body type.

Adam Dunn will turn age 27 in a couple of months, which is the age at which more players have their peak season than any other age. Given Adam's build, I expect that he will have his peak seasons from about age 25 through 29. While he may not become an "old 30" like some people apparently thought Frank Robinson was 40 years ago, I would not be surprised if Adam's body, say his knees, starts to breakdown once he hits that milestone age.
Dunner is a great offensive force, but we should enjoy him now. It might be the smart play not to hold onto him when he reaches his thirties, and is even more expensive.

[Jpup]

Anyone for Dunn to SD for Jake Peavy and Clay Hensley?

Jake Peavy is one of a handful of guys that I would trade Dunn for.

[big boy]

Say stud hitter and I'll assume we're talking batting.

Defense matters, bring it up and we'll discuss it for sure.

Bring up the defense of a left fielder and the impact on the team defense and we'll discuss it. I can assure you there are plenty who are way worse then Adam Dunn on his worst day.

We could go on and on if we wanted... good times.

The thread title is not "is Dunner a good hitter?"...we all know what he is at the dish. Therefore, comparing him to Schmidt in that context is not even close. Now whether Schmidt stunk on defense early on is irrelevent because we can all agree that, in the long haul, Dunner will never compare defensively to Schmidt.

[Always Red]

Jake Peavy is one of a handful of guys that I would trade Dunn for.

Brandon Webb's devastating sinker was tailormade for GABP. I'd trade Dunn for him, if someone were here to replace Dunn's production.

But there isn't anyone else here, or in AAA, to do that. Guys that hit 40HR, walk 100 times, score 100 runs and drive in 100 runs just don't fall out of trees.

For all the flack Dunn has received this year, he's done his job. No, he's not Albert Pujols, or this year, Ryan Howard. It's not his fault that the Reds have fallen out of contention, even though Dunn has slumped during these last 2 weeks. Literally, every other team in baseball would love to have him.

Wih Junior aging and losing production, Dunn is all we have in the OF, as far as pop goes. Playing half your games at GABP requires a team that can smack the ball around. Pitching and defense is wonderful, and certainly necessary to win championships, but not totally at the expense of offense, especially when you play at GABP.

[westofyou]

The thread title is not "is Dunner a good hitter?"..

No it's not it's not is it?

But then again go back and look at my post and the one I was responding to, maybe then you'll get the connection.

[flyer85]

I just don't think Lowe wanted to come here!The reporter babes probably weren't hot enough in Cincinnati.

[Kc61]

Adam Dunn will turn age 27 in a couple of months, which is the age at which more players have their peak season than any other age. Given Adam's build, I expect that he will have his peak seasons from about age 25 through 29. While he may not become an "old 30" like some people apparently thought Frank Robinson was 40 years ago, I would not be surprised if Adam's body, say his knees, starts to breakdown once he hits that milestone age.
Dunner is a great offensive force, but we should enjoy him now. It might be the smart play not to hold onto him when he reaches his thirties, and is even more expensive.


Dunn's OPS and BA are both down materially from 2004, as are his total extra base hits. The trend does not seem good. Of course, a light bulb can always go off and suddenly change any talented player for the better and that is a possibility.

There's a lot of literature about which kinds of players are more likely than others to improve. I've seen a lot of statements saying that Dunn is more/less likely to improve, but the trend is not positive. I would love to see some authoritative source, if anyone has one, that players like Dunn tend to improve at age 27 or above.

[Red Leader]

If there is one team I would want Adam Dunn traded to, it's the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. They need someone to protect Vlad, and they have good prospects out the wazoo.

Dunn for Erik Aybar and maybe if you're lucky, Ervin Santana?

Aybar, Kotchman, and a pitching prospect?

[blumj]

Ah, the winter of 2004. The free agency season that left us with Option D(Milton) after whiffing on options A-C (Pavano, Clement, Lowe).

Of course, it's not like Pavano and Clement have lit it up either.

Really, you should be thrilled you didn't get stuck with Clement or Pavano. At least Milton's still able/willing to go out there and try. I thought the Lowe contract was crazy at the time, coming off a terrible season and with his off field issues? But there's a lot to be said for a guy with a great sinker who never gets hurt and keeps plugging away, even if he can't stay focused enough to live up to his talent consistently. What a disastrous free agent class of starters that turned out to be. And, as the market turned out, the Lowe deal was maybe better than any of them at that time or since.

[texasdave]

Maybe we should ask wwbbd? So - what would Billy Beane do? Billy Beane is generally regarded as one of the better gms out there and it seems the chances are pretty good that he would move Adam Dunn this off-season. Or perhaps at the 2007 trade deadline. I don't think Adam would spend his entire career in an Oakland uniform. You could do a lot worse than emulate the A's front approach. Just sayin'.

[Team Clark]

The reporter babes probably weren't hot enough in Cincinnati.


He's got one hot reporter and we have Katherine Nero. Oh well....

[blumj]

He's got one hot reporter
that we know of...

[Benihana]

My biggest problem with Dunn is actually his attitude. I know he jokes around and he's not going to be the biggest ra-ra guy around, but his lacksadaiscal attitude both in the field and on the basepaths has grown old. If you compare him to any of the star players on the Bengals (Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Brian Simmons) or other MLB teams (Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Curt Schilling) etc. he pales in comparison. I know you don't have to be a strong clubhouse leader in order to be an important contributor (see Manny Ramirez), but on a team that is going to sport so many young players due to its small market nature, you need (at least most) of your veterans to be role models in the clubhouse. I don't see Adam Dunn as such, and given his strong production levels, I think you could fetch pretty good value for him. I wouldn't mind seeing him dealt this offseason for the right return.

I would love to deal Dunn for Brandon Webb or Jake Peavy. Maybe send him to LA for Chad Billingsley. I would also consider moving him for a Josh Beckett, who would more than likely return to his success in the National League. Theo would probably love a Dunn.

[big boy]

But then again go back and look at my post and the one I was responding to, maybe then you'll get the connection.

I didn't miss the connection but was making a different point.

By the way, defensively only, where would you rank Dunner among current left fielders? Is he even as good as Manny?

[TeamBoone]

I know you don't have to be a strong clubhouse leader in order to be an important contributor (see Manny Ramirez), but on a team that is going to sport so many young players due to its small market nature, you need (at least most) of your veterans to be role models in the clubhouse. I don't see Adam Dunn as such, and given his strong production levels, I think you could fetch pretty good value for him. I wouldn't mind seeing him dealt this offseason for the right return.




I don't see Adam Dunn as a "veteran" yet. Rich Aurilia is a veteran; Scott Hatteberg is a veteran. Adam Dunn has not yet played long enough to be considered a veteran.

[westofyou]

I didn't miss the connection but was making a different point.

By the way, defensively only, where would you rank Dunner among current left fielders? Is he even as good as Manny?

Stick Dunn in that small space at Fenway and he'd look much better then Manny. JMO

Dunn might be the biggest LF in the history of the game, he's certainly not a gazelle or does he even look like half a gazelle. I don't tend to worry about LF defense very much, but the Reds should... a team loaded with LH pitching will face more RH hitters and thus... more balls to LF, increased exposure to a weak link on any team needs to be addressed, by the team or the player, so improvement isn't impossible, personally I'd like to see the guy play some more 1st base, he wasn't brutal there and well, someday he's gonna play there or just work on his golf swing between at bats in a AL park.

[westofyou]

I don't see Adam Dunn as a "veteran" yet. Rich Aurilia is a veteran; Scott Hatteberg is a veteran. Adam Dunn has not yet played long enough to be considered a veteran.

6 years in the league, that's past the average lifespan for MLB players. He's a vet in service time, but still is a youngster when compared to the aformentioned players.

[b_combs23]

I dont really like Dunn as a baseball player and never really have. I think their are many things the Reds need besides a 50 home run 90 rbi 200 srike out player. I would hope he gets moved. Although I think Krivsky has to be smart about it. Dont just give him away like Kearns and Lopez.

[Red Leader]

I will say that if the Reds do trade Adam Dunn and don't get back the return that they would need, it would set them back AT LEAST 3 years, IMO.

[texasdave]

I will say that if the Reds do trade Adam Dunn and don't get back the return that they would need, it would set them back AT LEAST 3 years, IMO.

Two questions:1)If the Reds were to get the return that they needed would that simply keep them treading water or push them closer to a championship? 2)What would you put the percentages at of them getting the needed return?

Thanks.

[Red Leader]

Two questions:1)If the Reds were to get the return that they needed would that simply keep them treading water or push them closer to a championship? 2)What would you put the percentages at of them getting the needed return?

Thanks.

From where I stand, the Reds still have some positions that need to be addressed this offseason. 1) Closer, 2)Middle infielder, 3) Affordable, Power hitting 4) Affordable Starting pitching, and 5) Affordable relief pitching.

In other words, if the Reds could get the kind of package the Twins got in exchange for Pierzynski when trading Dunn (Nathan, Bonser, Liriano), I'd have to believe they would be legit playoff contenders next year.

If they traded Dunn to the Angels and got SS/2B Erick Aybar (a good player, but the Angels have about 40 really good MI prospects), RHP Kevin Gregg, and RHP Nick Adenhart, # 1, that'd be an awesome return, #2 they'd save money to address the other spots in F.A. or through trades involving arbitration eligible players, and #3 they'd address a lot of positions they need.

Aybar would slide in at SS (leaving Phillips at 2B). The middle infield defense would be an A++ situation. Gregg is a good relief pitcher, not tremendous, but on par with Weathers, in other words, he'd help. Adenhart is a tremendous SP prospect. Could be close to on par with Homer. You pair those two up together for the rotation and you're on to something big.

Having said all of that, I'd expect the chances of the Reds being able to pull a package like that for Dunn at about 40%. Not great, but still some hope, especially for a team like the Angels that are low on power, starting to age, and expected to contend each year.

[Wheelhouse]

I don't see Adam Dunn as a "veteran" yet. Rich Aurilia is a veteran; Scott Hatteberg is a veteran. Adam Dunn has not yet played long enough to be considered a veteran.

He is in his sixth major league season...sounds like a veteran to me.

[TeamBoone]

He came up in August. It may be his 6th year by the calandar, but in reality he just finished his 5th year. IMHO, that's not a veteran.

[westofyou]

IMHO, that's not a veteran.

The mean career length is 5.6 years for hitters and 4.8 years for pitchers.

He's now a vet.

[forfreelin04]

Since I am not able to post in Old Red Guard and the heated discussion over there seems to be Dunn and his golf clubs. I will point out that many over there have used the excuse that Glavine Smoltz etc used to play huge amounts of golf during the season. Rightfully so, however they are pitchers. Now in the case of Adam Dunn, I fail to understand why nobody has brought up the fact that a golf swing especially off the tee can really mess up a hitters swing. Don't laugh it is true.

[dabvu2498]

He came up in August. It may be his 6th year by the calandar, but in reality he just finished his 5th year. IMHO, that's not a veteran.

Interesting thought: when does a player qualify as a "veteran."

I looked up players who debuted in 2001. 5 (Eckstein, Ichiro, Hillenbrand, Jack Wilson, and Pujols) have played in more games than Dunn's 661 coming into this year and several are in the neighborhood (Wilkerson, Rowand, Marcus Giles, Izturis, etc.).

Some of these I consider vets, some not. Odd. Some of the guys on the list I still consider "unveteran" -- Wilson Betemit, for example.

Here's the list: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/ML_2001_debut.shtml

[westofyou]

I fail to understand why nobody has brought up the fact that a golf swing especially off the tee can really mess up a hitters swing. Don't laugh it is true.Movies are bad for the eyes, no swimming on game days, no drinking in the hotel bar... the game is full of myths and rules.

[Natty Redlocks]

My biggest problem with Dunn is that his career numbers start to decline sharply in August, then tank completely in September. His lifetime Sept. OPS is around .750 -- lower than Todd Hollandsworth's Sept. OPS. It really does seem like he just starts to lose interest once football season approaches, then phones it in completely the last month. I'd hoped this year would be different, seeing as how they're in contention and all, but so far he's right on his usual pace.

That said, I wouldn't trade him lightly; his blend of patience and power is rare and invaluable. But IMO offense is less important than both pitching and defense, I think Krivsky shares that view, and I won't be surprised at all if he is dealt. Just hopefully for more than Adam Everett and a reliever.

[westofyou]

My biggest problem with Dunn is that his career numbers start to decline sharply in August, then tank completely in September. His lifetime Sept. OPS is around .750 -- lower than Todd Hollandsworth's Sept. OPS. It really does seem like he just starts to lose interest once football season approaches, then phones it in completely the last month.

I think being so big has to do with it too, the guy really needs more days off then he's been getting this year, but for his career the end of the season has been his green Kryptonite, May is the Yellow.

[TeamBoone]

My biggest problem with Dunn is that his career numbers start to decline sharply in August, then tank completely in September. His lifetime Sept. OPS is around .750 -- lower than Todd Hollandsworth's Sept. OPS. It really does seem like he just starts to lose interest once football season approaches, then phones it in completely the last month. I'd hoped this year would be different, seeing as how they're in contention and all, but so far he's right on his usual pace.


Here we go again. People making suppositions (and voicing them) do nothing but stir up controversy. It may just be coincidence too... he plays in more games than anyone else on the team and just maybe he gets tired by the time September rolls around.

I don't know, there can be a myriad of reasons... but in my humble opinion, football is not one of them. I'm sure he watches when he's not playing but I doubt he's thinking about it when he's on the field or in the batter's box.

[Redhook]

Since I am not able to post in Old Red Guard and the heated discussion over there seems to be Dunn and his golf clubs. I will point out that many over there have used the excuse that Glavine Smoltz etc used to play huge amounts of golf during the season. Rightfully so, however they are pitchers. Now in the case of Adam Dunn, I fail to understand why nobody has brought up the fact that a golf swing especially off the tee can really mess up a hitters swing. Don't laugh it is true.

I disagree with this. I believe you can do well at both, and at the same time. I am a golf instructor. I know the golf swing extremely well and there are many similarities between the golf swing and the baseball swing even though they are on different planes. Let me explain.

In both sports you are trying to maximize your time in the "hitting" zone. In golf, the longer you can swing down the target line the straighter you will hit the ball. Most good golfers can go down the line for 6 inches or so (the best ever was Moe Norman....18 inches. He hit every shot dead straight). In baseball, the more level you are (Griffey is great at this), the better chance you have to "cover" the ball and drive it. I don't know exactly how long Griffey was level through the hitting zone, but I know in his prime he was better than most, if not the best.

Now, I'll get a little more technical, just for kicks. For the better player in golf, the biggest fault is getting stuck. The club gets behind the hands and you're in now man's land (Tiger when he faults). You either block the ball way right or flip it left. The main reason for this is the right shoulder dips on the downswing causing the right elbow to drop below the left elbow (for a righty) and therefore it is virtually impossible to hit down and through the ball. The same can be said for baseball. If a player doesn't drop his back elbow too much then he will be in a much better position to hit down and through the ball. If you try to hit the ball high you'll notice how low your back elbow gets. The lower it gets the more upward your swing will go, thus creating very little time in the "hitting" zone.

Both swings can get rather technical, but playing golf casually is not going to hurt Dunn's baseball swing. And, if he actually knew what he was doing, it could potentially help out his baseball swing, alot. I actually make some of my students make baseball swings to level their shoulders out. Unfortunately, I doubt Dunn knows what he's doing when he plays golf and he's just bashing away at the ball....hitting up on it just like he does in baseball.

If I could just give him one golf lesson I think could also turn him into a .300 hitter. ;)

[Homer Bailey]

I respectfully disagree Redhook...

I played both golf and baseball in high school, and was not able to pick up my golf clubs during the summer months at all because baseball went pretty much all summer. When I did attempt to practice both sports at the same time, I constantly dipped my back shoulder in my baseball swing, and popped everything up. It is not possible to develop a solid baseball swing if you are out there swinging a golf club a completely different way every day. IMO.

[Redhook]

I respectfully disagree Redhook...

I played both golf and baseball in high school, and was not able to pick up my golf clubs during the summer months at all because baseball went pretty much all summer. When I did attempt to practice both sports at the same time, I constantly dipped my back shoulder in my baseball swing, and popped everything up. It is not possible to develop a solid baseball swing if you are out there swinging a golf club a completely different way every day. IMO.

Before I became a golf instructor, I would've agreed with you on this because I used to have the same problem in high school. Now, I do not. I can shoot under par in golf and go to the batting cages and hit the ball very solid. Why? Because I know how to swing the golf club correctly which can help the baseball swing out too. If you know how to properly swing a golf club, most do not, you can do both quite well, and at the same time. I've done it.

[REDSEER]

Here's my take on the situation......

If WK can get an outfielder that has speed and is a consistent .300 hitter, along with an ML ready prospect SP or a proven #1/2, I'd pull the trigger.....

My trade........Dunn/Cueto to Baltimore for Markakis/Bedard

[TeamBoone]

A whole lot of ballplayers play golf... for many of them it's an off-day passion, though I think Adam's preference is fishing on off days and he only dabbles at golf.

Anyway, my point.... if it interfered with their game as much as some think it does, I doubt they'd be allowed to do it.

And thanks for your insight, Redhook. If someone doesn't believe a golf pro who also plays baseball, they're not going to believe anybody.

[VI_RedsFan]

Here's my take on the situation......

If WK can get an outfielder that has speed and is a consistent .300 hitter, along with an ML ready prospect SP or a proven #1/2, I'd pull the trigger.....

My trade........Dunn/Cueto to Baltimore for Markakis/Bedard

And Baltimore would laugh their a**** off...

I do think Baltimore would be a good trade target if we are dealing Dunn though. Houston and Minnesota would be good targets as well. If we are dealing with Houston, I'm asking for Burke (there's you're speedy, .300 hitting OF right there) plus a Hirsh/Albers and maybe more. If we are talking to Minnesota, then I'm asking for a Bonser/Baker plus Kubel and maybe a reliever. And, of course, if we are talking to Baltimore, we definately start out with Bedard (forget about Markakis, we're not getting him) and Fiorentino.

I'm not saying that I'm in the "Trade Dunn" crowd, I've always been a big Dunn supporter, but I do think Krivsky should at least make some calls this offseason about him.

[mth123]

And Baltimore would laugh their a**** off...

I do think Baltimore would be a good trade target if we are dealing Dunn though. Houston and Minnesota would be good targets as well. If we are dealing with Houston, I'm asking for Burke (there's you're speedy, .300 hitting OF right there) plus a Hirsh/Albers and maybe more. If we are talking to Minnesota, then I'm asking for a Bonser/Baker plus Kubel and maybe a reliever. And, of course, if we are talking to Baltimore, we definately start out with Bedard (forget about Markakis, we're not getting him) and Fiorentino.

I'm not saying that I'm in the "Trade Dunn" crowd, I've always been a big Dunn supporter, but I do think Krivsky should at least make some calls this offseason about him.

No interest in Bonser/Baker for Dunn. I like the Minnesota idea but need more than bottom of the rotation potentials. I'd take one of those guys as the throw in but not the centerpiece.

[johngalt]

My biggest problem with Dunn is that his career numbers start to decline sharply in August, then tank completely in September. His lifetime Sept. OPS is around .750 -- lower than Todd Hollandsworth's Sept. OPS. It really does seem like he just starts to lose interest once football season approaches, then phones it in completely the last month. I'd hoped this year would be different, seeing as how they're in contention and all, but so far he's right on his usual pace.


I think it has a lot more to do with his conditioning than with football.

[jimbo]

I respectfully disagree Redhook...

I played both golf and baseball in high school, and was not able to pick up my golf clubs during the summer months at all because baseball went pretty much all summer. When I did attempt to practice both sports at the same time, I constantly dipped my back shoulder in my baseball swing, and popped everything up. It is not possible to develop a solid baseball swing if you are out there swinging a golf club a completely different way every day. IMO.

With all due respect, comparing how a high school player's swing is effected by playing golf to a major league player is pretty irrelevant. These players swing a bat for a living and and probably get more at-bats in a month than we do our whole lives. I doubt very much that a major league player's swing is going to be effected much by playing a round of golf every once in a while. A big percentage of major league players have been playing golf in their off-time during the season for a long time, Dunn isn't the first and won't be the last.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

With all due respect, comparing how a high school player's swing is effected by playing golf to a major league player is pretty irrelevant. These players swing a bat for a living and and probably get more at-bats in a month than we do our whole lives. I doubt very much that a major league player's swing is going to be effected much by playing a round of golf every once in a while. A big percentage of major league players have been playing golf in their off-time during the season for a long time, Dunn isn't the first and won't be the last.

I agree with you, but it's the same argument that people were using with Abreu after he declined last year after the HR Derby. The slight change in mechanics is supposed to make a difference, but when you're a professional hitter and have taken hundreds of thousands of swings in your lifetime, I'd believe you would be able to correct something like that with ease.

[Natty Redlocks]

Here we go again. People making suppositions (and voicing them) do nothing but stir up controversy. It may just be coincidence too... he plays in more games than anyone else on the team and just maybe he gets tired by the time September rolls around.

I don't know, there can be a myriad of reasons... but in my humble opinion, football is not one of them. I'm sure he watches when he's not playing but I doubt he's thinking about it when he's on the field or in the batter's box.

Fair enough. I have no idea why he never finishes strong but the reality is that he never does, for whatever reason. As others have said, maybe it's his size or conditioning. Maybe it's a combination of factors. But the fact that one can even make a case that they'd be better off starting T-Hole in left in September makes Dunn far from untouchable to me.

[Highlifeman21]

Original question: Is Dunn gone this winter?

My answer: Man I hope so, just so RedsZone isn't constantly flooded with the most ridiculous Adam Dunn threads imaginable. He strikes out too much, he's doesn't have enough RBI, his BA is too low, he's a horrible outfielder, he doesnt care about winning, he's out of shape, etc. Seriously, please trade the guy so the threads nit picking our best player will stop....

[TeamBoone]

Oh honey, they won't stop just because he's gone..... look at Pena, Lopez, and Kearns!

[jimbo]

Original question: Is Dunn gone this winter?

My answer: Man I hope so, just so RedsZone isn't constantly flooded with the most ridiculous Adam Dunn threads imaginable. He strikes out too much, he's doesn't have enough RBI, his BA is too low, he's a horrible outfielder, he doesnt care about winning, he's out of shape, etc. Seriously, please trade the guy so the threads nit picking our best player will stop....

If Dunn goes, it'll just be someone else. That's why I worry about Bailey and all of the attention he is getting. If he comes up and doesn't live up to the hype, even though he still may be a good pitcher, he will be the next to get the same type of constant criticism that Dunn currently gets. I have come to expect it from Reds fans in general.

[Highlifeman21]

Oh honey, they won't stop just because he's gone..... look at Pena, Lopez, and Kearns!

Tell me why when I read your post, immediately the cadance of lions, and tigers, and bears, oh my, from Wizard of Oz sprang into my head?

It seems with the departures of your listed trio, there's been more lament over the loss of those three, rather than the merits vs. the shortcomings of Wily Mo, Felipe, and Austin. No longer being on our roster has essentially given them all a free pass, they've done no wrong, we'd welcome each one back with open arms, for that triumvirate is perhaps the reason we will miss the playoffs.

[Highlifeman21]

If Dunn goes, it'll just be someone else. That's why I worry about Bailey and all of the attention he is getting. If he comes up and doesn't live up to the hype, even though he still may be a good pitcher, he will be the next to get the same type of constant criticism that Dunn currently gets. I have come to expect it from Reds fans in general.

With Bailey, I already worry that he's received far too much hype for his overall perceived talent. He's better than Gruler or Howington combined. Bobby Basham can't hold a candle to Homer Bailey. Travis Wood is a distant second.

Dunn at least has realized some of the hype, and produced expected numbers for some of us. To others, he will continue to face the constant criticism and scrutiny that comes with being the best player in our organization.

[RedsBaron]

Last night Dunn became the second player in Reds history to have three straight 40 HR seasons. Ted Kluzewski (1953-55) is the only other Red to achieve that feat.
If some fans here see their evident life's ambition realized by the trading away of Dunn for a young pitching prospect or two, they may be surprised by the Reds then suddenly needing a power bat or two.
The Reds offense has been fine this year-not awesome great like the 1976 Reds, but fine. However, much of the Reds offense has been driven by guys who may be unlikely to continue their production next season, either because they are on the wrong side of age 35 (Aurilia, Hatteberg, Griffey), they tend to be injured (Griffey again, Freel), or they may have just been having a "once-in-a-career" season (Ross). The only guys in the Reds lineup whom I am relatively confident can be counted on to be productive next year are Dunn, Encarnacion and Phillips, and the latter two guys are hardly proven veterans.
I've already posted that I question whether or not Dunn will age well when he reaches his thirties, and he may become too expensive for the Reds to keep. He is however the best hitter on the team, and I sure wouldn't trade him away for the latest hot pitching prospect of the month. A couple of years ago a lot of people said the Cubs would laugh at the Reds if they offered Dunn for Prior---I'm glad the Reds didn't make that trade.

[mth123]

Last night Dunn became the second player in Reds history to have three straight 40 HR seasons. Ted Kluzewski (1953-55) is the only other Red to achieve that feat.
If some fans here see their evident life's ambition realized by the trading away of Dunn for a young pitching prospect or two, they may be surprised by the Reds then suddenly needing a power bat or two.
The Reds offense has been fine this year-not awesome great like the 1976 Reds, but fine. However, much of the Reds offense has been driven by guys who may be unlikely to continue their production next season, either because they are on the wrong side of age 35 (Aurilia, Hatteberg, Griffey), they tend to be injured (Griffey again, Freel), or they may have just been having a "once-in-a-career" season (Ross). The only guys in the Reds lineup whom I am relatively confident can be counted on to be productive next year are Dunn, Encarnacion and Phillips, and the latter two guys are hardly proven veterans.
I've already posted that I question whether or not Dunn will age well when he reaches his thirties, and he may become too expensive for the Reds to keep. He is however the best hitter on the team, and I sure wouldn't trade him away for the latest hot pitching prospect of the month. A couple of years ago a lot of people said the Cubs would laugh at the Reds if they offered Dunn for Prior---I'm glad the Reds didn't make that trade.

Right on in every point!

[Kc61]

I believe there is a "poison pill" escalator in Dunn's contract which takes the 3rd year out to $18+ million if he is traded. That is going to make it much more complicated in terms of getting a maximum return if they trade him.

I read that, if traded, the third year option just disappears and Dunn becomes eligible for free agency in 2008. If there is an $18 million escalator provision of some kind, that might make it more difficult to trade him.

With all the talk about the Kearns trade, I think the outfield of Dunn/Griff/Kearns was way too slow defensively. I think the Reds will try to add still more speed to the outfield in the off-season.

It makes more sense to try to deal Griffey (who might appreciate being a DH at this point), but he has 10 and 5 rights and such a deal may not be possible.

If he decides to trade Dunn, I don't see the trade being solely for pitching. Hopefully Krivsky appreciates that, at this point, he has diluted the offense and needs to be building up that area as well as pitching.

[Always Red]

Don't be surprised at what Wayne does this off-season. He comes from Minnesota, the land of pitching, defense and non-power hitters. I think Morneau this year was the first Twin to hit 30 HRs since Hrbek or someone of that era.

If it's any indication, the very first thing WK did after being named to the job was to sign Dunn to a 2 year deal.

Pitching and defense are great, necessary to win championships, and frankly are two things that have been in short supply in these parts lately. I much prefer watching a 1-0 gem than an 11-7 slugfest (I was at Arroyo's shutout the other night and it was a thing of beauty!).

But if you're going to play 81 games a year in GABP, you're going to need to bash the opponent into submission, more than occasionally, in order to win.

Deno, Wise, Hopper, Freel, Hollandsworth and even Griffey are not going to be able to do that for you. No one in AAA can do that. Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto are still unknowns, and far away.

Klu could do that; Bench, Perez and Foster could do that. Greg Vaugh did it for a year. Dunn has done it (no pun intended) for 5 years in a row now for the Reds, the last three over 40 HR a year.

So what if he strikes out 190 times a year? I'm not a total stat head, but I'm catching on, and all of the numbers show that his K's do not detract very much, if at all, from his production. If anything, his patience at the plate helps to wear out the starting pitching, helping his teammates to be more productive. Personally, I don't think you can have a teamful of guys that strikeout 190 times (especially if they are not receiving walks), which is why Dunn, Kearns and WMP needed to be broken up. But having one or two isn't going to hurt you too badly.

Build this team around Dunn, Edwin and Phillips. There are enough sturdy veteran spare parts that can platoon and play decent enough defense. Add another good starting pitcher and a closer (man, I wish Eddie G could have given this team one more year, I loved his attack-mode attitude). This team is headed in the right direction.:thumbup:

[big boy]

If he stays here it has to be to play 1st base.

[Always Red]

If he stays here it has to be to play 1st base.

Nah, he's perfectly adequate in LF, when paired with a CF who can cover ground.

Put Dunn next to Junior in CF, and there is a black hole in the gap, where fly balls turn into doubles.

There's a lot more action at 1B; defense is probably more important there than in LF.

[TeamBoone]

Tell me why when I read your post, immediately the cadance of lions, and tigers, and bears, oh my, from Wizard of Oz sprang into my head?

It seems with the departures of your listed trio, there's been more lament over the loss of those three, rather than the merits vs. the shortcomings of Wily Mo, Felipe, and Austin. No longer being on our roster has essentially given them all a free pass, they've done no wrong, we'd welcome each one back with open arms, for that triumvirate is perhaps the reason we will miss the playoffs.


:) That was my "Marge" immitation.

Yes, most have bemoaned the trade, but they've also been tracking the production of these three players... laughing at Wily Mo and how the Reds fleeced the Sox, agreeing that Lopez wasn't that much of a loss (?), and loving that Freel has replaced Kearns in RF because "Freel is getting to more balls than Kearns ever would", he was a "cancer in the clubhouse", he had a poor work ethic, his production is down since he joined the Nats, he was overrated, blah, blah, blah.

[Krusty]

Dunn to Detroit for RHP Jermey Bonderman.

[Highlifeman21]

Dunn to Detroit for RHP Jermey Bonderman.


Sarcasm I hope.

If not, I'd love to honestly know a justification for giving away our best player for pennies on the dollar.

[pedro]

Not that I advocate trading Dunn for Bonderman, but the idea is really less ludicrous than I would have thought before the season. Bonderman really is having a pretty good year. The thing that I find odd is that he is doing much worse at home than on the road. He's only given up 14 HR's all year in 192 innings and 9 of those were in Comerica.

[lucky bugle boy]

Dunn to Detroit for RHP Jermey Bonderman.

Not straight up, but Bonderman is the type of guy we should be after.

[bounty37h]

[QUOTE=Always Red;1154590]Adam Dunn is the foundation of this team. And should be, for the next 8 years or so. He will only get better with more experience.

If Kriv gets rid of him, it better be for Bob Gibson (in his prime), or Mike Schmidt (in his prime) or another Hall of Famer, because, like it or not (and it seems that most here do not) Adam Dunn is putting Hall of Fame numbers together.

I'm not saying to not trade him (though I would not), because everyone has value. But it best be for Roy Oswalt, or Johan Santana or Joe Maurer, or Carlos Beltran. It seems as if the new Reds are short on outfielders with pop. I'd stick with Dunn.

Because if Adam Dunn keeps doing what he is doing right now, and progresses as most at his age do, he will be a HoF'er.

And that's a fact"

Nope, not even close to fact. DOnt get me wrong, I love Dunn, dont want him traded, unless it brings someone(s) so good you woudsl HAVE to make the trade. Yes, Dunn is putting up HOF numbers, in HR at least, but he is nowhere even close to a HOF consideration player.....

[jimbo]

Nope, not even close to fact. DOnt get me wrong, I love Dunn, dont want him traded, unless it brings someone(s) so good you woudsl HAVE to make the trade. Yes, Dunn is putting up HOF numbers, in HR at least, but he is nowhere even close to a HOF consideration player.....

I don't think anyone is saying he is currently a HOF consideration player. He is what, only 27 years old? With the numbers he has put up though, and if he can continue that pace, it is very conceivable he could someday be considered as such.

[TeamBoone]

He'll be 27 in November.

[mth123]

I want the reds to get pitching and all, but if you want an idea of what the reds offense will be like without Adam Dunn, look at Houston and pretend Lance Berkman isn't playing. If Dunn is traded for pitching, there needs to be a way to add a significant bat to replace him. I think they are a bat short with him still here.

[Topcat]

Only way I advocate trading Dunn is for Joe Saunders and Howie Kendrick and M. Izturius. We can offer them any RP pitcher of there choosing as a balancing of the deal. It creates youth with upside and Pay flex.

[guttle11]

I want the reds to get pitching and all, but if you want an idea of what the reds offense will be like without Adam Dunn, look at Houston and pretend Lance Berkman isn't playing. If Dunn is traded for pitching, there needs to be a way to add a significant bat to replace him. I think they are a bat short with him still here.


Yeah, a bat and three pitchers short.

I'd trade Dunn for a young, top level pitcher, a good pen guy, and a solid OFer.

[Ron Madden]

Yeah, a bat and three pitchers short.

I'd trade Dunn for a young, top level pitcher, a good pen guy, and a solid OFer.


Bill DeWitt did that once. :evil:

[mth123]

Only way I advocate trading Dunn is for Joe Saunders and Howie Kendrick and M. Izturius. We can offer them any RP pitcher of there choosing as a balancing of the deal. It creates youth with upside and Pay flex.

I like Kendrick but prefer Santana over Saunders. They can keep Izturis if it means upgrading to Santana. Kendrick at 2B and Phillips at SS. Griffey in LF Freel in CF, let Aurilia walk and spend big bucks on an impact hitter in RF. Those would be the only conditions that I would tade Dunn under. Still need a quality 4th OF to spell Griffey and Freel. Please don't say Deno.

[RFS62]

I'd trade Dunn for a young, top level pitcher, a good pen guy, and a solid OFer.


Bill DeWitt did that once. :evil:



He'll be 27 in November.


Yeah, but he's an old 27.

[oneupper]

I'd trade Dunn for a young, top level pitcher, a good pen guy, and a solid OFer.







Yeah, but he's an old 27.

Ten Days Older than Ryan Howard.

[RedsManRick]

Dunn has "old" skills, which means there's not a whole lot of room for him to improve. With a Sammy Sosa, he was able to learn plate discipline, which showed up in an increasing batting average (pitch selection) and OBP. His power surge was largely borne out of increased contact rates because he stopped swinging at as much crap that he couldn't hit. He still missed plenty of pitches, but he became selective.

With Dunn, he's already as selective as he'll ever be. He's not going to add power. Unless he suddenly develops better hand eye coordination, he's probably not going to increase his contact rate. We're likely to see him slow down as he ages. He's probably as good as he ever will be (yes, that's pretty darn good).

That's not to say Dunn isn't extremely valuable. There are only a handful of 40 HR, .400 OBP guys in the majors. However, it's not likely that Dunn will age gracefully so you have to imagine that as he moves in to his BIG contract, the price will go up as the production either stays the same or goes down.

I know it's not likely to happen, but if you could get a top pitcher and hitter from somebody's system, I think you'd have to give it serious consideration. What happens after next year when his agent is telling him that Houston will offer 5/70 and the Reds only have 5/50 on the table. Do you want to pay Dunn 14 million or more? Again, Dunn is valuable, but perhaps not as much as some people think. This year he's being out-OPS'd by the likes of Ray Durham, Adam LaRoche, and Garrett Atikins. He's 17th in the NL. Again, valuable? Yes. But worth 20% of a team's payroll while a defensive liability? I don't think so. It's one thing to be Manny Ramirez, OPS'ing 1.050 and playing crap defense. But .900 just isn't that special...

I understand the not willing to part with a future 500 HR guy. However, the only true untouchable players are those whose production is irreplacable. I think, given the right deal, Dunn's overall production can be replaced.

[flyer85]

sure he's gone ...









he heads to Texas in the off-season.

[SultanOfSwing]

I like Kendrick but prefer Santana over Saunders. They can keep Izturis if it means upgrading to Santana. Kendrick at 2B and Phillips at SS. Griffey in LF Freel in CF, let Aurilia walk and spend big bucks on an impact hitter in RF. Those would be the only conditions that I would tade Dunn under. Still need a quality 4th OF to spell Griffey and Freel. Please don't say Deno.

Yes I would definitely want Santana in that deal. What about Ayabar? Scot Shields? Could we throw in another piece an get Shields? Or may downgrade to Ayabar from Kendrick and throw in Shields. I have always believed the Angels would be a perfect fit for an Adam Dunn trade.

[Krusty]

Well, it isn't the offseason but let me propose the first slobber-knocker of the offseason for Wayne Krivsky:

Reds trade OF Adam Dunn, LHP Eric Milton and RHP Matt Belisle to the Detroit Tigers for RHP Jermey Bonderman, OF Craig Monroe and RHP Fernando Rodney.

For the Reds they upgrade their starting rotation with Bonderman and gives them a solid three with Arroyo, Harang and Bonderman. Get Monroe out of that spacious ballpark in Detroit and he can easily hit 30+ home runs and 90+ RBIs while playing in RF. Griffey would shift to LF and the Reds would use Freel and Denorifa in CF.....which would improve the outfield defense. Rodney gives the Reds another setup man and a candidate for the closer spot come 2007.

For the Tigers, they boast their offensive production with Dunn and can use him as a DH and part-time LF (would share time with Marcus Thames). Milton might have better success in that spacious ballpark and will be in his walk year. Belisle gives them a guy for middle relief and could possibly be a setup guy for young RHP Jeff Zumaya.

Opinions?

[Always Red]

If you can get the Tigers to do that, go for it.

I don't think the Tigers do that deal, but you never know. And I'm not sold on Monroe. I don't think the Tigers do it because of all the payroll they take on.

Rodney would easily be the Reds closer next year if that deal happens.

[TeamBoone]

What's an "old 27"?

[westofyou]

What's an "old 27"?

Players who generally have old player skills are players that have a knowledge of teh strike zone and power, both traits tend to develop in players as the age, it's rare that a player enters the league with those skills. Unfortunatley they tend to often also leave the game sooner.

[klw]

What's an "old 27"?

Somebody who looks like Taylor Hicks

[ThatPitchIsDunn]

Well, it isn't the offseason but let me propose the first slobber-knocker of the offseason for Wayne Krivsky:

Reds trade OF Adam Dunn, LHP Eric Milton and RHP Matt Belisle to the Detroit Tigers for RHP Jermey Bonderman, OF Craig Monroe and RHP Fernando Rodney.

For the Reds they upgrade their starting rotation with Bonderman and gives them a solid three with Arroyo, Harang and Bonderman. Get Monroe out of that spacious ballpark in Detroit and he can easily hit 30+ home runs and 90+ RBIs while playing in RF. Griffey would shift to LF and the Reds would use Freel and Denorifa in CF.....which would improve the outfield defense. Rodney gives the Reds another setup man and a candidate for the closer spot come 2007.

For the Tigers, they boast their offensive production with Dunn and can use him as a DH and part-time LF (would share time with Marcus Thames). Milton might have better success in that spacious ballpark and will be in his walk year. Belisle gives them a guy for middle relief and could possibly be a setup guy for young RHP Jeff Zumaya.

Opinions?

I love this option, but if we do (and the Tigers go for it), we had better sign Tomo Ohka and some bench OF bats in free agency. We'd really need Monroe to do some nasty things. Sure would be nice to have a guy who throws straight gas and misses bats quite a bit; it seems we haven't really had that since Willy in 99.

[Redsfan08]

What I want roster to look like if we trade dunn

cf.Hunter
rf.Freel
lf.Griffey
1b.hatteberg
2bPhillips
3b.EE
ss.Aurrilia/unless we can land alex gonlez

[westofyou]

What I want roster to look like if we trade dunn

cf.Hunter
rf.Freel
lf.Griffey
1b.hatteberg
2bPhillips
3b.EE
ss.Aurrilia/unless we can land alex gonlez
That lineup is so ugly I'd shoot it so on one had to see it.

[pedro]

What I want roster to look like if we trade dunn

cf.Hunter
rf.Freel
lf.Griffey
1b.hatteberg
2bPhillips
3b.EE
ss.Aurrilia/unless we can land alex gonlez

double yuck.

[Cedric]

double yuck.

triple.

Who plays without a catcher these days?

[pedro]

triple.

Who plays without a catcher these days?

certainly not the reds.

[Redsfan08]

What I want roster to look like if we trade dunn

cf.Hunter
rf.Freel
lf.Griffey
1b.hatteberg
2bPhillips
3b.EE
ss.Aurrilia/unless we can land alex gonlez

and catcher Ross/Valentin

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm all for this.

However, only if the following happen.

1.) The Reds sign a free agent outfielder who can play defense and at least has some sort of pop.

2.) It's for premium pitching. You're not going to get an established #1 for Dunn, but you can easily get a #1 pitching prospect in 3a for him. The Reds need to make sure they do extensive research and trade with an organization who is pitcher rich.

3.) They use the saved money from trading Dunn again, for more pitching.

If the above happen, count me in for being in favor.

[redsfanfalcon]

What I want roster to look like if we trade dunn

cf.Hunter
rf.Freel
lf.Griffey
1b.hatteberg
2bPhillips
3b.EE
ss.Aurrilia/unless we can land alex gonlez

Who would want Alex Gonzalez? Good glove, but high K rate (I don't know that for sure, that is from memory). Why not stick with Juan Castro if you are going that route? Leave Richie Rich at SS, and just deal with his range. It isn't as bad as I thought.

[lollipopcurve]

I like Kendrick but prefer Santana over Saunders. They can keep Izturis if it means upgrading to Santana. Kendrick at 2B and Phillips at SS.

Yes sir. I like the idea of Dunn for Kendrick plus some young pitching (even a kid like Adenhart) . I'd throw in Freel to get it done. I know it means sacrificing a lot of offense, and likely the ability to compete in 2007, but I think Kendrick is going to be a hitting machine, and if you can get a decent young starter too, I think it's a significant plus for the Reds once Votto and Bruce arrive (2008-09), because I don't think there's any way Dunn is here beyond 08.

[klw]

Yes sir. I like the idea of Dunn for Kendrick plus some young pitching (even a kid like Adenhart) . I'd throw in Freel to get it done. I know it means sacrificing a lot of offense, and likely the ability to compete in 2007, but I think Kendrick is going to be a hitting machine, and if you can get a decent young starter too, I think it's a significant plus for the Reds once Votto and Bruce arrive (2008-09), because I don't think there's any way Dunn is here beyond 08.

Don't the Angels already have Freel in the body of Chone Figgins?

[lollipopcurve]

Don't the Angels already have Freel in the body of Chone Figgins?

Indeed. But I think Freel's ability to play CF (probably better than Figgins'), not to mention his Hudlerian scrappiness, will appeal to the Angels. They can return Figgins to all-purpose duty.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure you'll get the Angels to bid super high on Dunn. I think the Texas teams may be the best bet cuz they'll realize they have a chance to sign him beyond 08.