Lohse, should he stay or should he go?

[REDREAD]

Do you bring back Lohse next year or do you nontender him? Keep in mind that he made about 4 million this year and has Boras as his agent.

I'm guessing it's going to cost about 4.5-5 million to bring him back, considering the average raise is 900k. Heck, Boras might ask for more than that. I think they hardballed the Twins last year.

This is a very hard call for me. Pitching is so scarce that I'm not sure you could do better on the FA market for 5 million. We've got very little to trade.
We have absolutely no depth in the rotation at all. I consider Claussen to be very questionable next year, and I don't expect the Lizard to be ressurrected.
Thus, in spite of the fact that Lohse might turn into a gas can next year, I guess I will reluctantly vote yes.

[flyer85]

He can stay but only if it not anywhere near $4M

[Z-Fly]

He will lose in the Arbitration Hearing. My vote yes. 4 mill for a high rist high reward. I'll take it.

[Doc. Scott]

The problem is that he can't be given more than a 20% cut in arbitration. So the Reds would have to non-tender him to get him in camp for a significantly cheaper price.


He will lose in the Arbitration Hearing. My vote yes. 4 mill for a high rist high reward. I'll take it.

Kyle's salary got pumped up to where it is ($3.95MM) because of two arbitration victories over the Twins despite never posting an ERA under 4.18. So I wouldn't count out the guy's champion of an agent.

[Hoosier Red]

What's the deal on non-tendering him? Can they not re-sign him until May 1 if they do that?

[RedFanAlways1966]

He can stay but only if it not anywhere near $4M

Exactly how I feel. Once Eric Milton's salary comes off the books, then the REDS can possibly chance a Lohse-type. One more year until that happens.

[LoganBuck]

What's the deal on non-tendering him? Can they not re-sign him until May 1 if they do that?

Lohse is a living breathing pitcher. He will sign somewhere. The #3-#5 starters in
the rotation are all question marks. I say keep him, if he fails, he makes one very expensive bullpen arm at least.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Yes. Considering what we have, I'll take him.

Right now, he's probably in line to be #3 in the rotation for 2007.

Sad, but true.

[klw]

The problem is that he can't be given more than a 20% cut in arbitration. So the Reds would have to non-tender him to get him in camp for a significantly cheaper price..

Unless the Reds were able to get him to sign for less prior to the tendering deadline by convincing him this is a good opportunity, he likes it here,a nd that other offers won't be out there.

[Falls City Beer]

Yes. Considering what we have, I'll take him.

Right now, he's probably in line to be #3 in the rotation for 2007.

Sad, but true.

If true, that's awful. This team is beyond screwed if Lohse is the Reds' third-best starter.

[flyer85]

If true, that's awful. This team is beyond screwed if Lohse is the Reds' third-best starter.I hope the Reds go into the offseason thinking of a top 3 of Harand/Arroyo/Bailey and attempt to build from there. It would be nice to have Milton out of the picture and Lohse as a low cost swingman.

[REDREAD]

If true, that's awful. This team is beyond screwed if Lohse is the Reds' third-best starter.

Sadly, I think it is true. Lohse is certainly ahead of Milton at this point, particularly since Milton now has arm and leg problems.

I really don't think we should count on anything from Claussen next year. (Thanks again, Doc Hollywood for your brilliant preventative diagnosis :thumbdown ).

Who else is left? The Lizard?

This is why I was really hesitant to trade Gernamo. Not because Gernamo is good, I think he's below average, but it's looking like this offseason we are going to have to spend money simply to get bodies to man the rotation.
They are talking about Franklin or Belisile starting in the #5 slot now. We are that undermanned.

I don't see how the Reds are going to avoid having a cattle call for the #4 and #5 slots in the rotation next year. I know Milton is automatically penciled in, but he's likely to break down. The Reds need to bring in at least two starting pitchers this offseason, and that's if they keep Lohse. One will start the season as a long guy/swingman, but I expect he'll get a lot of starts during the season.

[REDREAD]

Lohse as a low cost swingman.

The problem is, that the Reds aren't going to get him at a low cost. If they nontender him, Boras will get someone to pay 4-5 million for him.

Lohse pitched good enough to win a modest raise in arb, I think. Yes, the system is wacked up, but that's the way it works.

[Falls City Beer]

I hope the Reds go into the offseason thinking of a top 3 of Harand/Arroyo/Bailey and attempt to build from there. It would be nice to have Milton out of the picture and Lohse as a low cost swingman.

I'd be looking to add to the front of the rotation one or two starters of higher quality than those three.

I'll settle for one. But I want him to be of a clearly higher caliber than any of those three.

Trouble is that it's likely to take one of the above arms to find that clearly better arm via trade.

[BRM]

He needs to be gone if the Reds are serious about winning. If he's the #3 next season, the Reds are headed in the wrong direction.

[Falls City Beer]

I'd be willing to overpay Ron Villone to eat up 5 innings a start at the back of the rotation. It really is that bad. And I really dislike the Reds' options that much.

[redsupport]

Villone was good enough for the Yankees to deploy, good point

[Falls City Beer]

The Reds shouldn't be worried about mediocrity in the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation next year; but they should be very worried about having awfulness in just one of the rotation spots.

[flyer85]

I'd be looking to add to the front of the rotation one or two starters of higher quality than those three.

I'll settle for one. But I want him to be of a clearly higher caliber than any of those three.

Trouble is that it's likely to take one of the above arms to find that clearly better arm via trade.I think it will be too costly to add a front of the rotation either via trade or free agency. I would go for taking some chances on some one year deals to fill the back of the rotation and spend some money on bullpen and offense where you can get more bang for the buck.

Look at all the Marlins youngsters. It may not be unreasonable to expect major contributions in the rotation from Bailey and Cueto.

[dfs]

I'd be looking to add to the front of the rotation one or two starters of higher quality than those three.

Just curious, can you give me a short list of 10 or so starters that you would view as definitively higher in quality than Arroyo/Harang?

There aren't a bunch of those guys. And they don't tend to get traded. They tend to be very expensive when brought in as free agents, and we can all look in Eric Milton's direction and acknowledge that high priced free agents don't always perform.

[Falls City Beer]

Look at all the Marlins youngsters. It may not be unreasonable to expect major contributions in the rotation from Bailey and Cueto.


Couple of comparison points: 1. the Marlins know how to help kids make the transition to the Majors; the Reds don't. 2. Cueto and Bailey aren't Johnson and Olsen. At best we should expect a Nolasco-ish performance.

[Falls City Beer]

Just curious, can you give me a short list of 10 or so starters that you would view as definitively higher in quality than Arroyo/Harang?

There aren't a bunch of those guys. And they don't tend to get traded. They tend to be very expensive when brought in as free agents, and we can all look in Eric Milton's direction and acknowledge that high priced free agents don't always perform.

I said I'd realistically settle for one of those arms.

[REDREAD]

I'd be willing to overpay Ron Villone to eat up 5 innings a start at the back of the rotation. It really is that bad. And I really dislike the Reds' options that much.

I'm really not sure what the best course of action is to take.

I can't see getting a front end starter without trading EdE, Dunn or Homer (what else is there realistically to trade for one?)

On the other hand, Villone made 2.2 million this year. That's not too bad, but you're basically paying for almost guaranteed below average production. That hurts because you'd hope the farm system could at least produce talent of that level to eat innings in the back of the rotation. (Meaning, it hurts to spend money on FA for that).

I said earlier in the year that I expect things to get worse shortterm before they get better. It was confused as a slam on Wayne, but I meant is that Allen's years of neglect of the farm are coming to roost. The Reds lived off of a decent starting 8 position players for quite awhile. They didn't contend with it, but it kept them out of the basement. Now those guys are starting to get turned over (and getting older + more $$), and there's nothing to replace them with.

We might end up blowing the entire offseason payflex on 2 backend of the rotation starters and a reliever or two. There might not be any money left to improve the offense/defense.

[flyer85]

Couple of comparison points: 1. the Marlins know how to help kids make the transition to the Majors; the Reds don't. 2. Cueto and Bailey aren't Johnson and Olsen. At best we should expect a Nolasco-ish performance.actually Bailey certain comps well to Johnson and is considered a better prospect stuffwise and had a much better AA this year than Johnson did in 2005. In addition, Cueto comps well to Sanchez and he could be a 2nd half contributor.

[Falls City Beer]

But Johnson and Olsen are both older than Cueto and Bailey, correct?

[lollipopcurve]

He's solid, and the Reds have no SP depth.

[Falls City Beer]

He's solid, and the Reds have no SP depth.

Yeah, solid as Grandpa's stool.

[BRM]

Yeah, solid as Grandpa's stool.

:laugh:

[flyer85]

But Johnson and Olsen are both older than Cueto and Bailey, correct?Bailey did considerably better in AA at 20 than Johnson/Olsen did at 21.

Both Bailey and Cueto are 20.
Olsen, Johnson and Sanchez are all 22.

I will admit getting anything from Cueto in 2006 is a stretch but Bailey is more ready to take on the majors in 2007 than any young Florida pitcher was in 2006.

[Falls City Beer]

Bailey is more ready to take on the majors in 2007 than any young Florida pitcher was in 2006.

But Bailey's success will largely depend not upon stuff and more upon management and coaching, particularly if we expect him to have sustained success like Johnson or Olsen.

Plus, we'll have to endure, I'm sure, some nasty growing spurts along the way.

But I'm all for bringing Bailey up next season from the word go. I just think we should anticipate 5th starter results from him, and appreciate as gravy whatever else we get.

[BRM]

But I'm all for bringing Bailey up next season from the word go. I just think we should anticipate 5th starter results from him, and appreciate as gravy whatever else we get.

I could definitely live with that. Pick up two starters to go with Harang and Arroyo and use Bailey as the #5. Of course, that means dumping Milton and Lohse.

[roby]

I could definitely live with that. Pick up two starters to go with Harang and Arroyo and use Bailey as the #5. Of course, that means dumping Milton and Lohse.

Dump Away!!! Please!

[BRM]

Any chance Lohse comes back in a bullpen role? Or is that out of the question at this point?

[Cigar2]

I went undecided cause it would depend on how much money we'd have to pay to keep him around next year and into maybe the future has well.

[KronoRed]

No thanks, he's another Milton and we've already got a nice expensive one.

[dfs]

Falls City Beer wrote...

I said I'd realistically settle for one of those arms.
Sure.
And I'm asking who "those arms" are.

You've set the bar pretty high with "better than" Arroyo and Harang. There just aren't a lot of those guys.

Would you be happy with Matt Clemente at 10 million a year? Chris Benson at 8 million? Would those have been good investments? I'm not trying to be a jerk, it's just that pitching by it's nature is volitile and expensive. There are no sure thing pitchers out there and if there were they would not be traded, the reds would have to compete for them in the biggest loser scenario.

Do you pay Kerry Wood the going rate and hope for 150 good innings?

[Always Red]

Any chance Lohse comes back in a bullpen role? Or is that out of the question at this point?

I think he's too much of a head case to be a solid, long time dependable starter. But he's got a live arm and good movement, and just enough of a 'tude to be a good closer; I've said that all along. I know he'd rather be a starter, but his track record there is not very good, after all.

$4 million for Lohse is a gamble, no matter if he's in the rotation or as closer.

But then again, even mediocre pitching is expensive to buy. What is cheaper is to use your own farm system as filler, instead of paying through the nose for it. Bailey is certainly close; he'd be worth a try next year. Cueto is further away. I guess it depends, ultimately, on how much money you have to spend, and where you want to spend it.

[Tom Servo]

He pitched generally well for us this year but it's a risk I'd rather not take. You're really tempting the fates trying to get consistent good starts out of Lohse.

[terminator]

There's no way I'd keep him for $4-5 million.

It's pretty much the same situation as Ramon Ortiz last year. He pitched well for a portion of the year and shows signs of being a decent #3 or #4 if he were consistent, but when you look at the whole picture of his career norms we would be overpaying for what will likely be mediocrity from him. His BEST year would be 4.20 ERA. If that were a given or even if you could be sure his ERA would be 4.50 at worst, he'd be worth the $5 million, but it's not a given so he's not worth it.

We have a 4.62 team ERA this year and the odds aren't especially good that he would help that improve next year, so I would pass.

[IslandRed]

The Reds shouldn't be worried about mediocrity in the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation next year; but they should be very worried about having awfulness in just one of the rotation spots.

That's a point that can't be overemphasized. Nearly every team, even the good ones, gets avert-the-eyes-bad performance from the #5 spot. Even the Yankees and Red Sox spent most of the season cycling dreck through the back end of the rotation. Even if they're not exactly good, just not running a near-guaranteed loss out there once or twice a week would put us ahead of the game.

[Kc61]

There's no way I'd keep him for $4-5 million.

It's pretty much the same situation as Ramon Ortiz last year. He pitched well for a portion of the year and shows signs of being a decent #3 or #4 if he were consistent, but when you look at the whole picture of his career norms we would be overpaying for what will likely be mediocrity from him. His BEST year would be 4.20 ERA. If that were a given or even if you could be sure his ERA would be 4.50 at worst, he'd be worth the $5 million, but it's not a given so he's not worth it.

We have a 4.62 team ERA this year and the odds aren't especially good that he would help that improve next year, so I would pass.

This post makes sense. Reds need to devote resources to a third pitcher to go with Arroyo and Harang at the front of the rotation. I don't know that they can afford $4-5 million for the back of the rotation. Particularly since Milton's salary is still kicking around.

I think Lohse can be good eventually. He has good stuff. But the Reds need to focus its efforts and resources on a proven third guy for the top of the rotation.

[mth123]

He can stay but only if it not anywhere near $4M

Edit.

[Always Red]

The more I think about that, the more it makes sense.

Ramon Ortiz=Kyle Lohse

[Will M]

Is what the front office needs

trade dunn? griffey?

dump milton? larue?

lohse worth $4M?

which free agents to target?

ALL of these will depend on developing a plan for 2007 and beyond

- Will

[Gallen5862]

I voted yes. Let's see what he can do in spring training. He can either be a starter or be in the bull pen.

[Razor Shines]

He's got good stuff and a horrible mental make-up. It just seems that he'll forget what he's doing sometimes and casually toss one down the middle. As has been said I wouldn't want him back for 4-5 mil. I think that money can be better spent somewhere else.

[reds44]

no.

[LoganBuck]

That's a point that can't be overemphasized. Nearly every team, even the good ones, gets avert-the-eyes-bad performance from the #5 spot. Even the Yankees and Red Sox spent most of the season cycling dreck through the back end of the rotation. Even if they're not exactly good, just not running a near-guaranteed loss out there once or twice a week would put us ahead of the game.

Jason Johnson says Hi!

This board undervalues average. For a back of the rotation starter, average is very good. Not sucking is just as valuable relatively speaking as being a stud #1.

[mth123]

Jason Johnson says Hi!

This board undervalues average. For a back of the rotation starter, average is very good. Not sucking is just as valuable relatively speaking as being a stud #1.


Absolutley. 30 teams times 5 spots equals 150 rotation slots to be filled. This season almost every team has filled at least 1 of those slots with a revolving door of retreads and never will bes. (Joe Mays, Jose Lima, Chris Michalek, Ryan Franklin, Justin Germano, etc). Guys who are above that level do have value. There are not 150 starting pitching candidates better than Lohse or Milton. Based on this board's standard there aren't 50 Starters in all of baseball who wouldn't be considered "turds" if they pitched in Cincinnati, and most of those "turds" would cost just as much on the open market.


When you can't develop your own, you have to overpay for even below average pitchers. It is still better than the alternative. Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse have given the Reds a chance to win into the late innings this year with a realtively good frequency. (This means getting to the 7th inning or so with the game still within a reachable run total - 4 or less). This type of starter doesn't put up glittering stat lines and is never going to be winning any awards, but they are much better than the alternatives (burning up the bullpen in the 3rd inning or being down by 6 in the sixth).

I would prefer to have a couple of good young arms in their cheap pre-free agency years, but we simply don't. The team has failed to develop players in general for over a decade (with a few exceptions) and the farm system is just now emerging. When that happens you have to pay market prices. These prices include a premium to attract players to a team with such an incredibly bad recent history. Why would a good pitcher want to pitch in Cincinnati? Winning history? No. Bigtime media exposure? No. Reputation for treating players well? No. Picthers park? Heck no. One thing would bring them here. MONEY! That means more money than more attractive teams. Probably signifcantly more.

I hate the thought of paying a combined $13 Million for Milton and Lohse, but where would this team be with Joe Mays and Chris Michalek in their spots? Guys who can give six reasonable innings are expensive. Of those 150 spots pitchers 70 to 120 or so are guys like Milton and Lohse. Teams want that. Pitchers 120 to 150 are the retread guys. You can not go 162 games with multiple rotation spots filled with retreads. One is bad enough. The reds tried it for a lot of years and ruined the arms of Scott Williamson, Scott Sullivan, Danny Graves and a host of others who were used way too much to bail these guys out. Milton and Lohse are a step up from the guys that were populating this rotation in the early 2000's. The plan can't simply be to dump them and bring in any live body to replace them. To replace them with quality is going to cost a lot of $ or talent in trade. The Reds would probably have to overpay either way (in $ or talent that is).

I want better pitching too, but you aren't going to get 5 Harangs and Arroyos in the rotation. And don't expect too much from Bailey when he arrives. Harangs and Arroyos are fairly rare commodities. If Bailey ends-up like Harang that would be a huge success, but most on here would likely be disappointed.

[fearofpopvol1]

All you "YES" people can't still feel this way. This guy has no consistency what-so-ever.

[Razor Shines]

Well this is what I said about Lohse in the game thread, I think it fits better here though.

Well one thing is for sure, if we're going to continue to let Lohse pitch for us someone is going to have to get him one of those silk scarves that fighter pilots used to wear.
I guess that's not fair to Kyle though, it should pretty much be part of pitching staff's uniform.

[cincinnati chili]

I wouldn't pay $2 mil. for the guy, let alone four. He had a nice run for about a month, but something's up with him.

[Aronchis]

I wouldn't pay $2 mil. for the guy, let alone four. He had a nice run for about a month, but something's up with him.

Probably his attitude. Reds fall out of it, he pitches like it.

[Falls City Beer]

Yeah, something's up with the guy: his stuff's not as great as people think it is.

Brett Tomko syndrome.

[REDREAD]

Geez, the guy has really stunk of late.. I was kind of on the fence to begin with, but now I'm leaning towards no.

The sad thing though is that if the Reds nontender him, they will probably end up spending 4-5 million on someone that's not any better. The market for pitching is that crazy.

[jmac]

Just curious, can you give me a short list of 10 or so starters that you would view as definitively higher in quality than Arroyo/Harang?

you made an excellent point. to sorta back up your comment ,look at stats thru saturday.
NL 2 starters sub 3 era: carpenter and webb
era's higher than BA and harang include:
bmyers,pedro,maddux,penny pettite,peavy etc

AL 1 starter sub 3 era santana
other notable above avg starters:

verlander 3.62 lackey 3.73 zito 3.89 schilling 4.07
notice these:
contreras 4.27 millwood 4.36 garland 4.37 clee 4.58 buehrle 4.79
beckett 4.82:eek:
i guess i just dont see a huge pool of guys that are available that would be a upgrade over our 2.now i would welcome any of these tho.
if lohse is #3......:help:
now if we could get a guy like lackey(i kinda like this guy's ability) and have
harang BA (lackey type) ??? then loshe #5 ,that would be pretty decent !

[RollyInRaleigh]

Yeah, something's up with the guy: his stuff's not as great as people think it is.

Brett Tomko syndrome.

Elaborate on the "stuff" comment? I'm interested in hearing this.

[Falls City Beer]

Elaborate on the "stuff" comment? I'm interested in hearing this.

Just like Tomko--decent speed on his fastball, but poor control of it, ultimately; and not all that much movement on it.

Has decent breaking stuff, but can't consistently throw it for strikes.

Basically the problems that plague most pitchers. Add in that he doesn't often use his brain all that much in terms of pitch selection and you have a highly combustible pitcher.

[Degenerate39]

Lohse i'm not sure if he should stay with us or not. He's 4-10 this season. The last time he's had more wins than loses was back in 02 and 03. He's had double digit loses in the last four years. Can he be relied on? Nope. Was he a good choice to trade for? Nope, not in my opinion atleast. In the last 3 games he's given up 17 runs I think or close to it. You can hardly call him consistant. Is there any trade value for him? Only if Wayne is in the office.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Just like Tomko--decent speed on his fastball, but poor control of it, ultimately; and not all that much movement on it.

Has decent breaking stuff, but can't consistently throw it for strikes.

Basically the problems that plague most pitchers. Add in that he doesn't often use his brain all that much in terms of pitch selection and you have a highly combustible pitcher.

So it isn't a "stuff" issue as much as it is a pitching issue. I agree with that.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Here's what stats Inc. says about Lohse, in 2005:

"Too often in 2004, Lohse left his fastball over the middle of the plate, nibbled with his breaking pitches and fell behind, or issued hurtful walks. While he has good stuff, he can't overpower hitters with a 93-94 MPH fastball. He must locate the ball to succeed. Lohse has a good slider and curveball, but needs to consistently execute his changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball. When in trouble, he has bad mound presence, looking disgusted by umpires' calls and teammates' mistakes. Near the end of the season, he began handling himself better. To his credit, he always has been durable and willing to take the ball under any circumstances."

[Falls City Beer]

So it isn't a "stuff" issue as much as it is a pitching issue. I agree with that.

I think the inability to locate pitches is absolutely a "stuff" issue. Pitch selection is more a coaching issue.

[Falls City Beer]

Here's what stats Inc. says about Lohse, in 2005:

"Too often in 2004, Lohse left his fastball over the middle of the plate, nibbled with his breaking pitches and fell behind, or issued hurtful walks. While he has good stuff, he can't overpower hitters with a 93-94 MPH fastball. He must locate the ball to succeed. Lohse has a good slider and curveball, but needs to consistently execute his changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball. When in trouble, he has bad mound presence, looking disgusted by umpires' calls and teammates' mistakes. Near the end of the season, he began handling himself better. To his credit, he always has been durable and willing to take the ball under any circumstances."

Tell me this doesn't sound like a scouting report on Brett Tomko, just as I said.

[blumj]

contreras 4.27 millwood 4.36 garland 4.37 clee 4.58
I swear it took me 5 minutes to figure out who clee is. :laugh:

[RollyInRaleigh]

I think the inability to locate pitches is absolutely a "stuff" issue. Pitch selection is more a coaching issue.

Can't agree with that. Plenty of pitches with great stuff miss the strike zone. Lots of guys have great "stuff" but can't find the strike zone with it. The ability to locate pitches comes from proper mechanics, repetition and a lot of confidence in what you are throwing. I've seen plenty of guys that can get the ball up there with a lot of velocity, great movement and great offspeed and breaking stuff but can't consistently get it in the strike zone. Do they have great stuff? Absolutely. Do they know how to pitch or harness the "stuff?" No way.

Learning how to pitch and having the confidence and the ability to use your stuff is far different that having it. As far as pitch selection goes, I really feel it is a product of learning how to pitch and learning what you have or don't have on any given night. Very rarely does any pitcher go to the mound with all his pitches working. Learning how to win without your best stuff is the key to becoming a consistent major league pitcher.

[jmac]

I swear it took me 5 minutes to figure out who clee is. :laugh:

oops!i thought it looked weird after typing it:rolleyes: guess it should have been CLee(for those who havent figured=cliff lee)

[Slyder]

Sadly, I think it is true. Lohse is certainly ahead of Milton at this point, particularly since Milton now has arm and leg problems.

I really don't think we should count on anything from Claussen next year. (Thanks again, Doc Hollywood for your brilliant preventative diagnosis :thumbdown ).

Who else is left? The Lizard?

This is why I was really hesitant to trade Gernamo. Not because Gernamo is good, I think he's below average, but it's looking like this offseason we are going to have to spend money simply to get bodies to man the rotation.
They are talking about Franklin or Belisile starting in the #5 slot now. We are that undermanned.

I don't see how the Reds are going to avoid having a cattle call for the #4 and #5 slots in the rotation next year. I know Milton is automatically penciled in, but he's likely to break down. The Reds need to bring in at least two starting pitchers this offseason, and that's if they keep Lohse. One will start the season as a long guy/swingman, but I expect he'll get a lot of starts during the season.

Thats why I want someone like Schmidt brought in. Gear up for the front and you get anything from the back half its gravy.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I would keep him for $4 million, but not for 5.

As crazy as it is, $4 million is about right for an average starting pitcher like Lohse. The Reds are not going to find better deals on the market. He has struggled of late, but I like what I see out of him overall and would be willing to bring him back for one year at 4 mil. Didn't a website have a bunch of numbers that compared him to Chris Carpenter at the same point in their careers? (I know, obviously Lohse will never be as good as Carpenter, but it was interesting nonetheless. It was from baseball pros. i believe)

[deltachi8]

Lohse is a not an average starting pitcher, he is well below average. he had a nice "change of leagues" run but has regressed to his norm now. If he has a future, it shoul dbe in the bully and Lohse at $4M is foolishness - starter or reliver. I think you really have to ditch him as he most likely is going to get a raise in arbitration.

[jmcclain19]

I've posted this before elsewhere, but I think its worth repeating.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lohseky01.shtml


Kyle Lohse age-based similar players (through age 26)
Sim Player From To Yrs W L WL% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+
+---+--------------------+---------+--+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
Kyle Lohse 2001-2005 5 49 52 .485 4.7202 150 144 4 4 3 0 844.7 945 472 443 120 264 515 96
971 Chris Carpenter 1997-2001 5 45 45 .500 4.7860 139 122 6 11 5 0 797.3 895 475 424 100 304 567 100
967 Jeff Weaver 1999-2003 5 51 63 .447 4.5851 158 141 7 10 3 2 952.0 1020 523 485 104 271 627 99
960 Ricky Bones 1991-1995 5 44 48 .478 4.4318 130 125 1 10 1 0 792.0 832 429 390 101 257 293 100
958 Jason Jennings 2001-2005 5 49 43 .533 5.0247 124 124 0 3 1 0 729.0 826 436 407 86 340 480 97
957 Jason Schmidt 1995-1999 5 41 42 .494 4.5122 126 117 1 5 0 0 736.0 775 406 369 76 303 535 97
955 Jeff Suppan 1995-2001 7 40 48 .455 4.9583 157 142 6 9 2 0 880.3 978 519 485 122 296 501 98
954 Eric Milton 1998-2002 5 56 51 .523 4.7953 163 162 0 9 4 0 970.3 985 552 517 147 268 708 100
953 Frank Pastore 1979-1984 6 43 56 .434 4.3318 170 132 14 21 7 4 883.0 915 456 425 75 261 494 85
950 Joel Pineiro 2000-2005 6 50 42 .543 4.1080 145 123 10 8 3 0 830.3 824 401 379 92 263 571 105
949 Ray Burris 1973-1977 5 48 45 .516 4.1073 183 116 27 23 7 1 848.0 936 438 387 86 263 422 97
Kyle Lohse 2001-2005 5 49 52 .485 4.7202 150 144 4 4 3 0 844.7 945 472 443 120 264 515 96
+---+--------------------+---------+--+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
Average of all 10 Players 5 46 48 0 4.56 149 130 7 10 3 0 841.8 898 463 426 98 282 519 98
Avg of all 3 Retired Players 1 13 14 0 1.29 48 37 4 5 1 0 252.3 268 132 120 26 78 120 94

[RollyInRaleigh]

That is interesting. Thanks for posting.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Lohse is a not an average starting pitcher, he is well below average. he had a nice "change of leagues" run but has regressed to his norm now. If he has a future, it shoul dbe in the bully and Lohse at $4M is foolishness - starter or reliver. I think you really have to ditch him as he most likely is going to get a raise in arbitration.

No, Lohse is right about at the average ERA for starting pitchers over his career. Plus, you could argue he's only 27 and will get better. Fact is, the Reda are not going to find a better deal on the market. If Lohse will come back for $4 mil, I think we need to do it.

[Falls City Beer]

I've posted this before elsewhere, but I think its worth repeating.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lohseky01.shtml


Kyle Lohse age-based similar players (through age 26)
Sim Player From To Yrs W L WL% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+
+---+--------------------+---------+--+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
Kyle Lohse 2001-2005 5 49 52 .485 4.7202 150 144 4 4 3 0 844.7 945 472 443 120 264 515 96
971 Chris Carpenter 1997-2001 5 45 45 .500 4.7860 139 122 6 11 5 0 797.3 895 475 424 100 304 567 100
967 Jeff Weaver 1999-2003 5 51 63 .447 4.5851 158 141 7 10 3 2 952.0 1020 523 485 104 271 627 99
960 Ricky Bones 1991-1995 5 44 48 .478 4.4318 130 125 1 10 1 0 792.0 832 429 390 101 257 293 100
958 Jason Jennings 2001-2005 5 49 43 .533 5.0247 124 124 0 3 1 0 729.0 826 436 407 86 340 480 97
957 Jason Schmidt 1995-1999 5 41 42 .494 4.5122 126 117 1 5 0 0 736.0 775 406 369 76 303 535 97
955 Jeff Suppan 1995-2001 7 40 48 .455 4.9583 157 142 6 9 2 0 880.3 978 519 485 122 296 501 98
954 Eric Milton 1998-2002 5 56 51 .523 4.7953 163 162 0 9 4 0 970.3 985 552 517 147 268 708 100
953 Frank Pastore 1979-1984 6 43 56 .434 4.3318 170 132 14 21 7 4 883.0 915 456 425 75 261 494 85
950 Joel Pineiro 2000-2005 6 50 42 .543 4.1080 145 123 10 8 3 0 830.3 824 401 379 92 263 571 105
949 Ray Burris 1973-1977 5 48 45 .516 4.1073 183 116 27 23 7 1 848.0 936 438 387 86 263 422 97
Kyle Lohse 2001-2005 5 49 52 .485 4.7202 150 144 4 4 3 0 844.7 945 472 443 120 264 515 96
+---+--------------------+---------+--+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
Average of all 10 Players 5 46 48 0 4.56 149 130 7 10 3 0 841.8 898 463 426 98 282 519 98
Avg of all 3 Retired Players 1 13 14 0 1.29 48 37 4 5 1 0 252.3 268 132 120 26 78 120 94


Well, if the implicit comparisons being made are Lohse to Carpenter and Schmidt, I'd point to the fact that Schmidt and Carpenter were 1) deeply hampered by injury early in their careers and 2) capable of K-ing people.

Lohse hasn't similar excuses.

[registerthis]

I see Eric Milton on that list too.

Sign me up.

[Falls City Beer]

I see Eric Milton on that list too.

Sign me up.

And redsupport's hero Ricky Bones.

[NJReds]

I'm not a big Lohse fan, but he came through in a big way last night. If the choice is between guys like Michalel and J. Johnson or Lohse. I take Lohse. But I hope that's not the choice.

[BRM]

It appears lots of folks are okay with having the same starting rotation next year. Milton is likely going to remain a Red next year unless Krivsky can find a sucker to take him. And people want Lohse back as well. I have hope that Krivsky will actually try to improve the rotation. That means jettisoning Lohse or Milton. Jettisoning both would be even better.

[Chip R]

If Lohse was making a million or so, I might be OK with inviting him back but he's going to command about $4.5 -$5M next year which will be about as much as Harang will make and more than Arroyo. Personally, I could find much better use for that money than to give it to Lohse.

[REDREAD]

If Lohse was making a million or so, I might be OK with inviting him back but he's going to command about $4.5 -$5M next year which will be about as much as Harang will make and more than Arroyo. Personally, I could find much better use for that money than to give it to Lohse.

That's a good point. Is Lohse worth 4-5 million? Of course not.

I think the arguments the "keepers" are making is that he's a legimate ML pitcher (unlike Michalek, etc). True, he's a pure crapshoot, but I'm not sure the Reds could easily acquire any better options.

I'm still on the fence, but I'm tempted to give him a one year deal. If nothing else, we should be able to flip him at the deadline for a prospect similiar to Zach Ward. He's got a decent shot at pitching better than that.

I honestly expect the NL to improve enough so that next year you can't contend with a .500 record. Lohse is potentially a trading chip for next July.
Although you could make the argument that you take Lohse salary and dump it into the draft and rebuild better that way.

I initially said yes, but I'm on the fence now.

[lollipopcurve]

Keep him. He has a decent chance to provide a league average 200 innings, and that's huge. He's young, his stuff is solid, and he has no injury history. The team has zero SP depth, like most teams, and decent free agent pitchers are going to cost a lot more than 5 million. I wouldn't think twice.

[Chip R]

That's a good point. Is Lohse worth 4-5 million? Of course not.

I think the arguments the "keepers" are making is that he's a legimate ML pitcher (unlike Michalek, etc). True, he's a pure crapshoot, but I'm not sure the Reds could easily acquire any better options.


And that's where you get into the "replacement level" argument. Could Lohse be any better or any worse than a guy like Michalek? For the money Lohse will get, he dang well better be a ton better than Michalek. Is he now? Not by any stretch of the imagination. If two guys are going to give you similar results and one is making $5M and the other is making $350K, I go with the latter guy.

[lollipopcurve]

he dang well better be a ton better than Michalek. Is he now? Not by any stretch of the imagination.

WHIP
Lohse -- 1.41 (would be 26th in the league among starters, ahead of Dontrelle, Hudson, Pettitte, Suppan, Doug Davis, etc.)
Michalak -- 1.66

K/9
Lohse -- 7.29 (would be 13th in the league among starters)
Michalak -- 2.57

Look at stats like these and factor in their ages, and I'd say Michalak and Lohse are not in the same league.

[BRM]

All I'm saying is that I'd rather see the Reds actually try to improve the pitching next year. Going into next season with Milton and Lohse in the rotation means another .500 or below season. Dump Lohse, try to acquire two starters via trade or free agency and move Milton to the #5 slot. Unless Wayne can find a taker for Milton as well.

[REDREAD]

And that's where you get into the "replacement level" argument. Could Lohse be any better or any worse than a guy like Michalek? For the money Lohse will get, he dang well better be a ton better than Michalek. Is he now? Not by any stretch of the imagination. If two guys are going to give you similar results and one is making $5M and the other is making $350K, I go with the latter guy.

That's a good argument. But I look at it this way. Michalek (or someone like him) is guaranteed to stink. Lohse has potential to be better. The hard part is figuring out the odds that Lohse will be better than replacement level.
You're right, it's esstetially a 3.5-5 million dollar roll of the dice. (If you assume Michalek makes around 350k).

The other thing to consider is if the Reds resign Lohse and let's say he gives them $3 million worth of pitching for a cost of 4.5 million. That actually isn't too bad to slightly overpay for him (vs trading resources to get a 3 million dollar guy with identical performance). I guess what I'm saying is that since we are so desparate for pitching, I'm ok with slightly overpaying in salary for it.

Of course, the big risk is that the Reds give Lohse 4.5-5 million and he stinks up the joint.

[Patrick Bateman]

I've come to the conclusion that the Reds are better off letting him go regardless of the cost. He's not a bad 4th/5th starter, but we have lots of those.

The way I see it, Harang and Arroyo are locks for the rotation, and Milton probably is too because of his contract and vet. status.

I figure out of Ramirez, Claussen, and Belisle/Whoever, one can pitch at least as good as Lohse (based on this season Ramirez could, and if Claussen gets passed his injuries and improve upon 2005, he should).

So our best bet is to spend 6-7M on a 3.50-4.00 ERA type of guy instead of spending 5M on Lohse. It wouldn't be all that more expensive, and would be a big upgrade, and it's the only logical position in the rotation to do it. As much as Milton deserves to be out of the rotation, we all know that he will be in the rotation come 2007.

[mth123]

So our best bet is to spend 6-7M on a 3.50-4.00 ERA type of guy instead of spending 5M on Lohse. It wouldn't be all that more expensive, and would be a big upgrade, and it's the only logical position in the rotation to do it. As much as Milton deserves to be out of the rotation, we all know that he will be in the rotation come 2007.


If the Reds could get a 3.50 to 4.00 ERA guy for $6-7 million I'm right with you. I just think a guy like that will cost at least $10 million to pitch in Cincy and not for just 1 year but $10 Million a year for 3 years. That still may not get him. Lots of teams need pitching and a couple in New York have lots of money. Why would he pitch here unless the Reds blow him away? He could probably pitch for the Yankees, Mets, Braves, Red Sox, etc. Not many guys with an ERA below 4.00. You are basically talking the equivalent of Harang or Arroyo. $6 to $7 Million won't even buy league average IMO.

[Patrick Bateman]

If the Reds could get a 3.50 to 4.00 ERA guy for $6-7 million I'm right with you. I just think a guy like that will cost at least $10 million to pitch in Cincy and not for just 1 year but $10 Million a year for 3 years. That still may not get him. Lots of teams need pitching and a couple in New York have lots of money. Why would he pitch here unless the Reds blow him away? He could probably pitch for the Yankees, Mets, Braves, Red Sox, etc. Not many guys with an ERA below 4.00. You are basically talking the equivalent of Harang or Arroyo. $6 to $7 Million won't even buy league average IMO.

We could also get a guy like Doug Davis pretty cheaply in a trade, and that would accomplish the trick.

[mth123]

We could also get a guy like Doug Davis pretty cheaply in a trade, and that would accomplish the trick.

I like Davis. He'd fit nicely in the number 3 spot. Who do we have that Milwaukee wants beside Harang or Arroyo? Edwin? Bailey?

[LoganBuck]

I've come to the conclusion that the Reds are better off letting him go regardless of the cost. He's not a bad 4th/5th starter, but we have lots of those.

Do they? Claussen and Ramirez are big health questions, Milton stinks, and the other drecks are all slop. Michalek, Kim, Johnson, Mays, Wilson, Gosling, etc...

I will take Lohse.

[Patrick Bateman]

Do they? Claussen and Ramirez are big health questions, Milton stinks, and the other drecks are all slop. Michalek, Kim, Johnson, Mays, Wilson, Gosling, etc...

I will take Lohse.

I honestly think, at least 1 of those guys will step up to Lohse level production (Ramirez did it this year before the Philly debacle) and it would save us 4M in the process.

[Patrick Bateman]

I like Davis. He'd fit nicely in the number 3 spot. Who do we have that Milwaukee wants beside Harang or Arroyo? Edwin? Bailey?

Well he has a 4.91 ERA this season, so on the surface he's pretty bad, but he hasn't gotten much luck this season, plus he will be pretty expensive, so I think we might be able to give them some spare parts and that might be enough.

He's a guy that's been a pretty good pitcher the last 3 seasons, that I think you could get pretty cheaply because of the ERA.

[LoganBuck]

I honestly think, at least 1 of those guys will step up to Lohse level production (Ramirez did it this year before the Philly debacle) and it would save us 4M in the process.

Not so sure on Ramirez. I suspect he started showing his eventual path to arm surgery. The Phily debacle aside he was having issues. Look at his last 10 outings only one good outing on there. More disturbing perhaps was the fact that he wasn't striking anyone out, other then the Houston game. I am very worried about his arm.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7337

[mth123]

Well he has a 4.91 ERA this season, so on the surface he's pretty bad, but he hasn't gotten much luck this season, plus he will be pretty expensive, so I think we might be able to give them some spare parts and that might be enough.

He's a guy that's been a pretty good pitcher the last 3 seasons, that I think you could get pretty cheaply because of the ERA.

The Reds don't have any spare parts and if they did MIL wouldn't trade Davis for them.

[BigRed]

We all know that Krivsky is not afraid to make a move. Given a full off season to work with, I am sure that he will make some moves to improve the club. However, I am not sure whether I would bring back Lohse or not. I am thinking that there will be a lot of changes. Lohse is a back end of the rotation guy that will cost a lot of money. Glad it's not my call. I don't think Davis is a huge improvement over Lohse. I would look elsewhere.

[Falls City Beer]

Is Doug Davis under contract with Milwaukee for next year? I thought he was only signed through 2006. Somebody help me out on this.

[pahster]

Is Doug Davis under contract with Milwaukee for next year? I thought he was only signed through 2006. Somebody help me out on this.

I think you're right.