BA Minor League All-Star Team

[New Fever]

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http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/features/262497.html

[LincolnparkRed]

So what is the consensus timetable on when Bruce might make his reds debut? Will he follow a homer like rise or are OF more incremental?

[Red Leader]

So what is the consensus timetable on when Bruce might make his reds debut? Will he follow a homer like rise or are OF more incremental?

I would think that Bruce would start the year in High A next year and probably be promoted (if continuing to play well) to AA by the end of next year (2007). In 2008, I'd guess that he'd start the year in AA and potentially move up to AAA around mid year (again, if playing well and no injuries). He could be a potential Sept call up in 2008. In 2009, I expect him to be a starting OF on the Reds.

[Aronchis]

With a guy like Bruce, his play makes the call. He blows up in 2008 like Dunn did in 2001, you bring him up.

[paulrichjr]

Or we could trade him for Coco Crisp. Proven veteren you know.

[RedsManRick]

I'm curious, what is the failure rate of top offensive prospects (who have actually accomplished something in the minors -- not just pure hype monsters) relative to top pitching prospects. It seems like there just aren't that many great offensive guys who fall flat, particularly ones ahead of the curve.

[dougdirt]

Pitchers flop a lot more often than hitters. At first thought thats what comes to mind. I dont have much to do this evening, I will go over the last 10 years of BA top 100 prospects and do the top 10 hitters and top 10 pitchers from every draft and see what I can come up with.

[dougdirt]

I'm curious, what is the failure rate of top offensive prospects (who have actually accomplished something in the minors -- not just pure hype monsters) relative to top pitching prospects. It seems like there just aren't that many great offensive guys who fall flat, particularly ones ahead of the curve.

Here is the lists


2005
Hitters Pitchers
Joe Mauer 1 Felix Hernandez
Delmon Young 2 Scott Kazmir
Ian Stewart 3 Matt Cain
Joel Guzman 4 Adam Miller
Casey Kotchman 5 Chad Billingsley
Rickie Weeks 6 Jeff Niemann
Andy Marte 7 Jeff Francis
Hanley Ramirez 8 Jose Capellan
Lastings Milledge 9 Mike Hinckley
Dallas McPherson 10 Edwin Jackson

2004

Hitters Pitchers
Joe Mauer 1 Edwin Jackson
BJ Upton 2 Greg Miller
Delmon Young 3 Scott Kazmir
Rickie Weeks 4 Adam Loewen
Alexis Rios 5 Zack Greinke
Kazou Matsui 6 Cole Hamels
Grady Sizemore 7 Dustin McGowan
Prince Fielder 8 Gavin Floyd
Andy Marte 9 Chin-Hui Tsao
Casey Kotchman 10 Angel Guzman

2003

Hitters Pitchers
Mark Teixeira 1 Jesse Foppert
Rocco Baldelli 2 Jose Contreras
Jose Reyes 3 Gavin Floyd
Joe Mauer 4 Francisco Rodriguez
Brandon Phillips 5 Scott Kazmir
Hideki Matsui 6 Adam Waitwrights
Miguel Cabrera 7 Jeremy Bonderman
Casey Kotchman 8 John Vanbenschoten
Justin Morneau 9 Sean Burnett
Jason Stokes 10 Rafael Soriano

2002

Hitters Pitchers
Hank Blalock 1 Josh Beckett
Sean Burroughs 2 Mark Prior
Carlos Pena 3 Juan Cruz
Joe Mauer 4 Ryan Anderson
Wilson Betemit 5 Dennis Tankersley
Drew Henson 6 Nick Neugebauer
Mark Teixeira 7 Jerome Williams
Austin Kearns 8 Jon Rauch
Joe Borchard 9 Carlos Hernandez
Nick Johnson 10 Ty Howington

2001

Hitters Pitchers
Josh Hamilton 1 Josh Beckett
Corey Patterson 2 Jon Rauch
Sean Burroughs 3 Ben Sheets
Ichiro Suzuki 4 CC Sabathia
Nick Johnson 5 Ryan Anderson
Carlos Pena 6 Roy Oswalt
Vernon Wells 7 Chin-Hui Tsao
Drew Henson 8 Juan Cruz
Antonio Perez 9 Jerome Williams
Alex Escobar 10 Bobby Bradley

2000

Hitters Pitchers
Pat Burrell 1 Rick Ankiel
Corey Patterson 2 Ryan Anderson
Vernon Wells 3 John Patterson
Nick Johnson 4 Mark Mulder
Ruben Mateo 5 Kip Wells
Sean Burroughs 6 Matt Riley
Rafael Furcal 7 Josh Beckett
Dee Brown 8 AJ Burnett
Josh Hamilton 9 Brad Penny
Alfonso Soriano 10 Wilfredo Rodriguez

1999

Hitters Pitchers
JD Drew 1 Rick Ankiel
Eric Chavez 2 Bruce Chen
Michael Barrett 3 Brad Penny
Pablo Ozuna 4 Ryan Anderson
Ruben Mateo 5 Matt Clement
Alex Escobar 6 Roy Halladay
Lance Berkman 7 John Patterson
Carlos Beltran 8 Matt Riley
Corey Patterson 9 AJ Burnerr
Alex Gonzalez 10 Braden Looper

1998

Hitters Pitchers
Ben Grieve 1 Kerry Wood
Paul Konerko 2 Matt White
Adrian Beltre 3 Kris Benson
Aramis Ramirez 4 Carl Pavano
Travis Lee 5 Matt Clement
Miguel Tejada 6 Rick Ankiel
Todd Helton 7 Brian Rose
Mark Kotsay 8 Ryan Anderson
Chad Hermansen 9 Matt Anderson
Brad Fulmer 10 Eric Milton

1997

Hitters Pitchers
Andruw Jones 1 Kerry Wood
Vladimir Guerrero 2 Matt White
Travis Lee 3 Kris Benson
Migeul Tejada 4 Bartolo Colon
Todd Walker 5 Carl Pavano
Ruben Rivera 6 Jaret Wright
Nomar Garciaparra 7 Roy Halladay
Paul Konerko 8 Matt Morris
Jose Cruz Jr 9 Chris Carpenter
Scott Rolen 10 Braden Looper

1996

Hitters Pitchers
Andruw Jones 1 Paul Wilson
Ruben Rivera 2 Alan Benes
Daren Erstad 3 Livan Hernandez
Derek Jeter 4 Jason Schmidt
Karim Garcia 5 Matt Drews
Vladimir Guerrero 6 Billy Wagner
Ben Davis 7 Bartolo Colon
Derrick Gibson 8 Kerry Wood
Rey Ordonez 9 Chan Ho Park
Richard Hildalgo 10 Rocky Coppinger


There are a lot more pitchers that are in the "never heard of him" or "that guy was a top prospect in baseball?" than there are hitters. Each group has its hits and misses, but the hitters seem a lot more hit than pitchers.

[TeamSelig]

Hmm... the hitters do VERY well... almost all of them are quality MLB players. About half of the pitchers seem to pan out.

Also, I didn't realize Votto was quick (24 steals)... I was thinking he was a big bulky power hitter for some reason.

[Betterread]

This is significant recognition. 3 players out of 14 total, with all three at positions where the Reds could use an upgrade in the next two years. Big improvement from last year.

[dougdirt]

Hmm... the hitters do VERY well... almost all of them are quality MLB players. About half of the pitchers seem to pan out.

Also, I didn't realize Votto was quick (24 steals)... I was thinking he was a big bulky power hitter for some reason.

Joey hired aa personal trainer this past offseason to help him get in better shape and to help him run faster. It payed off bigtime for him.

[paulrichjr]

The Reds sure have a lot of players on this list, don't they?

How weird is that direct quote from Baseball America about the Cincinnati Reds? Makes me think 2009 or 2010 could be fun.

[RedsManRick]

My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...

[lollipopcurve]

My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...

I don't buy it. When it comes to finding players like Punto, I think it's really a matter of organizational will -- it takes some guts to go with low-pick guys who have relatively pedestrian minor league numbers (take a look at Punto's sometime if you want to be underwhelmed). Who's to say that guys like Drew Anderson, Brendan Harris, Mike Griffin and Justin Turner (guys like Valaika and Loo come more highly touted) can't turn into useful utility infielders in the Punto mold?

And forget about BA assessments when it comes to "depth" -- after decades of reading that publication, it's my opinion that they trot out an evaluation about depth only to prop up whatever grade they want to assign to an organization (the grade being based primarily on the top prospects plus the chumminess factor -- BA fawns on some orgs as a matter of habit, for whatever reason). Just my opinion...

[Sabo Fan]

I would think that Bruce would start the year in High A next year and probably be promoted (if continuing to play well) to AA by the end of next year (2007). In 2008, I'd guess that he'd start the year in AA and potentially move up to AAA around mid year (again, if playing well and no injuries). He could be a potential Sept call up in 2008. In 2009, I expect him to be a starting OF on the Reds.

I fully expect Bruce to be fast-tracked, so I'd challenge him and bump him up to AA next year. I don't know that spending part of the year in High-A next year will really do him all that much good. If he struggles at Chattanooga then you send him to High-A and let him get things together for a month or so and then bring him right back. If he continues to develop as he has, I could see a September call-up next year if the Reds aren't in the playoff picture and a full-time job for 2007. It's probably overly optimistic, but I just get the feeling that this organization is planning on Bruce moving up fast now that he's shown he's legit.

[Cyclone792]

I posted this in tonight's game thread, but it belongs here too ...

Krivsky regarding Bailey, Bruce and Votto on tonight's broadcast in the FSN booth ...

The "most logical choice" for Homer Bailey starting 2007 is in AAA Louisville.
Jay Bruce is in instructional league and will likely start 2007 in High-A Sarasota.
Joey Votto is at a level between AAA Louisville and the Reds.

My translation of the above based off hearing Krivsky say these things on the broadcast is as such ...

Bailey likely starts 2007 in Louisville with an unspecified chance to reach the Reds during the season.
Votto will probably start 2007 in Louisville, but has a great chance to reach the Reds during the season.
Bruce will start 2007 in High-A and further progress up the ladder in 2007 will be based off his performance throughout the season.

The comments are vague to a degree obviously, but based off what I heard, I can't say I disagree with anything Krivsky said regarding Bailey, Bruce and Votto and where they'll be during 2007.

One thing I do worry about with Votto next season is Narron "EE'ing Votto," and what I mean by that is Votto being called up just to sit on the bench while Hatteberg or somebody else continually starts at first base. If Votto is called up, the Reds better be ready to hand him the position, otherwise I'd much rather see him playing regularly for Louisville next season instead of sitting on our bench and not getting in-game reps.

Also interesting to note is that in the discussion of Homer Bailey with Grande and Welsh, Krivsky made the comment that he believes AAA is very important for prospects coming up through the system and that he strongly favors players making a stop in AAA rather than bringing them straight up from AA to the big league club.

[LoganBuck]

One thing I do worry about with Votto next season is Narron "EE'ing Votto," and what I mean by that is Votto being called up just to sit on the bench while Hatteberg or somebody else continually starts at first base. If Votto is called up, the Reds better be ready to hand him the position, otherwise I'd much rather see him playing regularly for Louisville next season instead of sitting on our bench and not getting in-game reps.

Also interesting to note is that in the discussion of Homer Bailey with Grande and Welsh, Krivsky made the comment that he believes AAA is very important for prospects coming up through the system and that he strongly favors players making a stop in AAA rather than bringing them straight up from AA to the big league club.

I agree on Votto, and I also agree with Krivsky on Bailey doing some time at AAA. Many of those guys have been to the majors, and can work a count. Also being teammates with some of those guys who are busting their ass to just get a cup of coffee may go a ways toward reigning in any cockiness that the young stud may have.

[dougdirt]

Cyclone, I took something completely different out of what he said about Bailey. It sounded like he was very much not saying Bailey is going to be given every shot in ST to make the Reds. Unless I missed it, he never said anything about Bailey specifically being in Louisville like he did with Votto or with Sarasota and Bruce.
He mentioned he thinks AAA is important to development, but never committed to saying Homer was going to see Louisville like he did commit to the other players and where they would be.

[Aronchis]

Cyclone, I took something completely different out of what he said about Bailey. It sounded like he was very much not saying Bailey is going to be given every shot in ST to make the Reds. Unless I missed it, he never said anything about Bailey specifically being in Louisville like he did with Votto or with Sarasota and Bruce.
He mentioned he thinks AAA is important to development, but never committed to saying Homer was going to see Louisville like he did commit to the other players and where they would be.

I read that the other way around, he said that Bailey must spend some time in AAA and Votto "was almost here" or like Cyclone said: between Louisville and Cincy. Krivsky was a major part why Liriano spent the 2005 minor league season in AAA, though most people thought he was ready.

[Az. Reds Fan]

All this love for Jay has forced me to make him my new avatar. Just another feather in his cap. :notworthy:

[Doc. Scott]

I posted this in tonight's game thread, but it belongs here too ...

Krivsky regarding Bailey, Bruce and Votto on tonight's broadcast in the FSN booth ...
[list]
Jay Bruce is in instructional league and will likely start 2007 in High-A Sarasota.


Given the harshness of the Florida State League on most hitters, I think Sarasota will be quite the test for Bruce next season. (Of course, when his numbers drop off a tad, we'll hear a lot of talk about his prospect status being in question, and chances are it won't be accurate.)

[mth123]

Anyone else disappointed that Bruce isn't being more fast tracked? I am thinking that the Reds will need him to be ready for a full-time role in 2009 and maybe permanent spot on the roster in mid-2008.

I was kind of hoping he would skip A+. He's not a pitcher. Hopefully he finishes 2007 in AA and gets a Sept call-up to the Reds.

As for Bailey and Votto, I agree completely on Bailey and really don't think he should break 2007 spring training on the 25 Man roster. I'd like to see Votto push Hat to the bench in 2007, hopefully right from the start. The Reds really need his extra base power and he would look good hitting 6th behind Griffey in 2007. I also think Hat is the kind of guy who could really help the team with a good at bat in a key spot off the bench.

I share Cyclone's concern about Votto getting "EE'd."

[OnBaseMachine]

My hope is Jay Bruce forces the Reds hand by looking great in the Spring and thus starts the 2007 minor league season in Chattanooga. The Reds really need him to progress and reach the majors sometime in 2008 and become a full-time starter in 2009/

[dougdirt]

Jay has said that one of his goals this offseason is to get ready and make AA out of Spring Training, so it seems like its something he has in his mind that he wants to do. Time will tell.

[Caveat Emperor]

I read that the other way around, he said that Bailey must spend some time in AAA and Votto "was almost here" or like Cyclone said: between Louisville and Cincy. Krivsky was a major part why Liriano spent the 2005 minor league season in AAA, though most people thought he was ready.

I like the idea of Bailey going to AAA for a while -- I dislike the idea of him being in AAA for any extended period of time. If he is going to be there, I'd hope that it's for no more than 2-3 months to refine his game before going up to the next level.

The point of a AAA stop is to get proficient at retiring the types of hitters -- 'tweeners and get-away-day specialists -- who have major-league skill sets, but who good pitchers don't allow to beat them and reach base to set the table for the actual threats in lineups. The stop at AAA should only come when the management feels Bailey is ready for the bigs. It's not a spot to work on getting his 3rd pitch down, but rather, it's a spot for him to take a working 3rd pitch and get practice throwing it at different times in the count to hitters that can do something with it.

My hope for Bailey would be a good spring training, a month or two of starts at Chattanooga, a month or two of starts at Louisville, and then the Reds roster for the stretch run in June or July.

[dougdirt]

I agree 100% CE. The question is, what will the 2007 rotation look like?
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo

Milton, will he be healthy?
Lohse?
Ramirez?
Claussen?
I think a lot of what will happen with Bailey has a lot to do with the above guys and the offseason.

[edabbs44]

I like the idea of Bailey going to AAA for a while -- I dislike the idea of him being in AAA for any extended period of time. If he is going to be there, I'd hope that it's for no more than 2-3 months to refine his game before going up to the next level.

The point of a AAA stop is to get proficient at retiring the types of hitters -- 'tweeners and get-away-day specialists -- who have major-league skill sets, but who good pitchers don't allow to beat them and reach base to set the table for the actual threats in lineups. The stop at AAA should only come when the management feels Bailey is ready for the bigs. It's not a spot to work on getting his 3rd pitch down, but rather, it's a spot for him to take a working 3rd pitch and get practice throwing it at different times in the count to hitters that can do something with it.

My hope for Bailey would be a good spring training, a month or two of starts at Chattanooga, a month or two of starts at Louisville, and then the Reds roster for the stretch run in June or July.

I would agree with that timeline for Bailey, but if the other options to start the year on the big squad are Lohse, EZ and others, I'd rather see Homer up in Cincy. There might not be a stretch run if Kyle is the #3. Of course, it all depends on what takes place in the off-season and in ST.