Stupid Trade Idea That Could Never Happen

[camisadelgolf]

The Reds pay a team $6.25 million to take Griffey, a different team $4.5 million to take Milton, and another team $2.6 million to take LaRue. In return, the Reds receive nothing, but it frees up over $13 million dollars for a starting pitcher. What do you think?

The way I see it, if the Reds could make it happen (and I'm sure they couldn't/wouldn't, but I like to dream), it would be as if they traded Griffey, Milton, and LaRue for an elite starting pitcher.

[flyer85]

How often can signing a free agent pitcher to a long term contract be deemed a success?

Using the class of two years ago as an example it would seem to be an extremely high risk/low percentage gamble.

[camisadelgolf]

Granted, it's a risk, but but I'll put it this way: What if you could trade Jason LaRue, Eric Milton, and Ken Griffey, Jr. for Woody Williams, Ted Lilly, Brad Radke, Jeff Suppan, or Gil Meche (and probably have about two-thirds of the salary paid for signing a second player of the five listed)?

Those are all guys I'm looking at signing Eric Milton-type contracts (and I also think all five of those players would be a bit more likely than Milton to give you the production you want out of that kind of salary).

[dfs]

What if you could trade Jason LaRue, Eric Milton, and Ken Griffey, Jr. for Woody Williams, Ted Lilly, Brad Radke, Jeff Suppan, or Gil Meche (and probably have about two-thirds of the salary paid for signing a second player of the five listed)?

Well, on the roster you've traded a high priced declining older free agent pitcher for another one. That still leaves you with Harang, Arroyo, FA pitcher that's a marginal improvement over Milton, and two holes in the rotation to be plugged by guys like Kyle Lohse or worse.

You are also down Junior's bat and made yourself that much more of a desperate player in the outfield free agent market.

It's a creative solution, but not one that makes the team better. Focusing on what your teams wants to get rid of leads to deals like Kearns/Lopez for whatever.

[camisadelgolf]

I see where you're coming from. It's just that I think someone similar to Woody Williams and 4+ million dollars for a second pitcher of approximately equal value is a significant improvement over Eric Milton. Also, I think that Griffey, at best, will hit no better than .275 with 25 homeruns next year (which isn't too far from what someone like Hollandsworth could do with a full year of playing time).

[PuffyPig]

Also, I think that Griffey, at best, will hit no better than .275 with 25 homeruns next year (which isn't too far from what someone like Hollandsworth could do with a full year of playing time).

Hollandsworth???????

I don't think so.

[REDREAD]

The Reds pay a team $6.25 million to take Griffey, a different team $4.5 million to take Milton, and another team $2.6 million to take LaRue. In return, the Reds receive nothing, but it frees up over $13 million dollars for a starting pitcher. What do you think?

The way I see it, if the Reds could make it happen (and I'm sure they couldn't/wouldn't, but I like to dream), it would be as if they traded Griffey, Milton, and LaRue for an elite starting pitcher.

No I wouldn't pay anyone 6.25 to take Jr. His salary is worth about 9.5 million/year when deferals are taken into account (source: the Reds).
So you dump Jr to save 3.25 million.. I don't think you could get a FA OF as good as Jr for 3.25. We don't have any OF on the farm as good as Jr either.
We don't have excess talent to trade for an OF comparable (or better) than Jr. As flawed as Jr is, he's one of our better players when you look at the entire organization's depth chart.

I think you could find someone to take LaRue without paying any of LaRue's salary. If you can't, then you trade Ross (sell high) and let LaRue rebound here next year.

If the Reds were willing to pay a team 4.5 million to take Milton, I think they'd have plenty of takers, considering that would reduce Milton's salary to 2 or 3 million. Given our shortage of warm bodies that can pitch, I'm not sure that's a good idea either. It would make sense if we had some youngsters that could pitch at Milton level or better, but we don't.

[camisadelgolf]

Well, I looked at Griffey's salary the way I did because in the past, the Reds have chosen to count all of Griffey's salary for that respective year. As for LaRue, if a team is willing to take on all of his salary (and we get some minor leaguer who'll never make it to the show), then by all means, make the trade. And I'm not sure what you're talking about with Eric Milton: he makes 9 million dollars in 2007--not 6.5 or 7.5.

Anyway, my point isn't so much that we have minor leaguers who could give the same production for a lot less money. My point is that we could shed all those salaries and replace the players with free agents who would almost certainly give more production for the money. I mean, for 10 million dollars, I think we could easily get a starter like Woody Williams and an outfielder who could put up Rich Aurilia-type numbers (while playing about twice as many games as Griffey).