Free Agent Pitcher: Great Idea

[camisadelgolf]

. . . but tough to execute. I'm guessing that some of the top free agent pitchers would avoid GABP at all costs due to the stat inflation. Many of us (perhaps myself included) keep banking on a free agent pitcher in the offseason, but to be realistic, how many top-notch pitchers are willing to come to the Reds at a reasonable price? My guess is "few". I don't see a Barry Zito-type free agent coming here, but that's just my view. What do y'all think?

[Unassisted]

Eric Milton was considered one of the top starters available on the FA market at the time he was signed. The price was far from reasonable, though. I don't see the current crop of FA starters being any more of a bargain.

[joshnky]

I think if pitchers avoid us it has more to with the losing culture of the past ten years than it does the ball park. Arroyo and Harang have proven that good pitchers can succeed pitching half of their games at GABP.

[Johnny Footstool]

Ted Lilly would be a good target, IMO, at a medium-range cost ($6-7 million per year).

[schroomytunes]

I have been beating the drum long enough...we need ted lilly

[Ravenlord]

Eric Milton was considered one of the top starters available on the FA market at the time he was signed. The price was far from reasonable, though.

you also have to remember that signing Milton was name recognition and trying to save face by being able to say "the Yankees wanted him."

[dougflynn23]

:confused: Take a moment to look at how the Reds acquired our only two quality starting pitchers. Neither were in the rotation for their respective teams at the time of the trades, and had pitching depth. Both cost quality hitters. Top line FA starters aren't coming here. You might get a Doug Davis or Vincente Padilla, but not a Zito or even a Lilly. If Guillen could draw Harang, and Wily Mo could draw Arroyo, I'd have thought that Kearns/Lopez could have drawn a similiar return.

[RedsManRick]

What's so great about Ted Lilly? He's a slight flyball pitcher with minor control problems. Not saying he wouldn't be an upgrade, he certainly would. But it's not like he particularly fits GABP.

[ChatterRed]

More than likely, the Yanks will nab Zito.......like they do everyone else.

[mound_patrol]

I dont see Zito going to the Yanks...I think you'll see him sign with a west coast team. But they'll definitly try to get either zito or schmidt

[Spitball]

I'd say the most recent free agent pitchers were either disappointments or overly injured, Pedro Martinez, Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, Eric Milton, Russ Ortiz, Kris Benson, Jon Lieber, and Jaret Wright. I'd rather develop another potential starter like Harang or Arroyo. BTW, I seriously doubt Kearns and Lopez were not on anyones radar for starting pitchers.

[mth123]

What's so great about Ted Lilly? He's a slight flyball pitcher with minor control problems. Not saying he wouldn't be an upgrade, he certainly would. But it's not like he particularly fits GABP.

No offense to the others, but this is the best comment in the entire thread. I think Lilly would be an upgrade over the number 5 spot we were running out there (Mays, Michalek, etc.) but I believe he would cost as much or more than Eric Milton. He's not an ace, but a mid-to back of the rotation starter. In cincy they are going to cost that much.

[Johnny Footstool]

What's so great about Ted Lilly? He's a slight flyball pitcher with minor control problems. Not saying he wouldn't be an upgrade, he certainly would. But it's not like he particularly fits GABP.

A) He probably won't be that expensive
B) He's a lefty who can strike batters out at a high rate
C) He doesn't have chronic injury problems (like a degenerative knee, Eric Milton)
D) He wouldn't cost the Reds any talent to acquire


No offense to the others, but this is the best comment in the entire thread. I think Lilly would be an upgrade over the number 5 spot we were running out there (Mays, Michalek, etc.) but I believe he would cost as much or more than Eric Milton. He's not an ace, but a mid-to back of the rotation starter. In cincy they are going to cost that much.

Yes, he would upgrade the #5 spot. He would also upgrade the #4 and #3 spots. By a lot.

Lilly is better than anyone the Reds could trot out aside from Arroyo and Harang. He would give the Reds three high-quality starters in the rotation.

As I said earlier, the Reds don't have enough tradeable talent left to acquire a quality starting pitcher. They have to do it via free agency. IMO, Lilly is one of a few guys they could realistically sign without breaking the bank.

[Krusty]

Anybody think the Reds could be major players for RHP Mike Mussina, who the Yankees might not re-sign?

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=nyy&playerID=119608

[Slyder]

What do you think the cost will be for Mussina? He will probably get a ton and maybe find a sucker to give him another multi year deal. I wouldnt mind him, he would be better than everyone not named Harang and Arroyo.

[flyer85]

Eric Milton was considered one of the top starters available on the FA market at the time he was signed. The price was far from reasonable, though. I don't see the current crop of FA starters being any more of a bargain.the 2004 starters class included the following that got multi-year deals
Russ Ortiz
Pedro Martinez
Kris Benson
Matt Clement
Carl Pavano
Jaret Wright
Jon Lieber
Eric Milton
Odalis Perez
(I probably missed a few)

OUCH!

[dunner13]

Mussinas getting old and will probably want to go to a contender. I would take him but we would have to overpay and he probably wouldnt come here anyway. I think he would tear up the NL though. You can just see the difference it made when bronson came over and mussina is better than bronson.

[SultanOfSwing]

the 2004 starters class included the following that got multi-year deals
Russ Ortiz
Pedro Martinez
Kris Benson
Matt Clement
Carl Pavano
Jaret Wright
Jon Lieber
Eric Milton
Odalis Perez
(I probably missed a few)

OUCH!
Wow, looking at that list, it appears Milton is the 2nd or 3rd best deal behind Martinez and/or Lieber. In comparison Milton isn't so bad after all. We certainly could have done a lot worse!

[flyer85]

Wow, looking at that list, it appears Milton is the 2nd or 3rd best deal behind Martinez and/or Lieber. In comparison Milton isn't so bad after all. We certainly could have done a lot worse!and signing no free agent starter to a multi year deal would have been better. I wonder if there is a lesson learned in there somewhere.

[SultanOfSwing]

and signing no free agent starter to a multi year deal would have been better. I wonder if there is a lesson learned in there somewhere.
Agreed. But the Reds could have signed Russ Ortiz! Ouch!!

[Z-Fly]

Lesson? What lesson? Lets sign ZITO!!! :D

[klw]

the 2004 starters class included the following that got multi-year deals
Russ Ortiz
Pedro Martinez
Kris Benson
Matt Clement
Carl Pavano
Jaret Wright
Jon Lieber
Eric Milton
Odalis Perez
(I probably missed a few)

OUCH!

Almost makes the 1986 NBA draft look successful.

[mth123]

A
Yes, he would upgrade the #5 spot. He would also upgrade the #4 and #3 spots. By a lot.

Lilly is better than anyone the Reds could trot out aside from Arroyo and Harang. He would give the Reds three high-quality starters in the rotation.

As I said earlier, the Reds don't have enough tradeable talent left to acquire a quality starting pitcher. They have to do it via free agency. IMO, Lilly is one of a few guys they could realistically sign without breaking the bank.

No doubt he would be number 3 on the Reds. But if you think he'll play in Cincinnati for less than $9 Million per year, I just don't see it. He may sign somewhere else for less than that. In Cincy, I think it would take at least 3 Years/$30 Million. Too many teams with much better situations, histories and ballparks to choose from. IMO the Reds would have to pay substantially more for a pitcher with other options that one such as Lilly is likely to have. We have a recent example of this with Mr. Milton. Heck, they had to give Cormier an extra year just to get him to agree to come here. If we could get him for 3 years at say $15 to $18 Million I'm for it, but I just don't see that happening. I disagree about the high quality starter part. I think he is a competent major league starter and certainly is deserving of a spot in most rotations. I just don't see him being worth what he is likely to command. As a flyball guy in In Cincy, I'm guessing he would put up an ERA in the 4.50 to 4.80 Range. If the Reds are going to commit over $20 Million to a pitcher, he needs to be a better fit for the park IMO.

I agree that there isn't enough tradeable talent. I just don't believe this team has the resources for a "big bang" that will make the team dramatically better in one move. I think they need to do a series of smaller moves to add depth and try to bring in a few educated gambles similar to Phillips. Offensive holes/depth will be cheaper to fill/acquire and may be a wiser use of money. Once there is enough depth, then deals can be made to add a pitcher. That doesn't mean I don't think they should try to sign a pitcher who may be a better fit. Just no more fly ball guys unless they are dominant ace material types.

[johngalt]

Agreed. But the Reds could have signed Russ Ortiz! Ouch!!

Avoiding sheer stupidity doesn't make you a genius.

[Johnny Footstool]

I wouldn't call the Phillips acquisition an educated gamble -- that was a no-risk deal that only cost the Reds a PTBNL. Same with David Ross. Krivsky can't count on finding deals like that every year. Some risk is necessary.

Unfortunately, Krivsky's one big risk (the Kearns/Lopez deal) was a disaster, and now the talent cupboard is bare. On the bright side, Castellini has shown a willingness to spend money, so why not start taking some risks with a replaceable resource (cash) instead of a valuable commodity (talent)?

Ted Lilly made $4 million this season. I don't think he'll double that in free agency. I think he can be had for $6-$7 million per season. That's the range the Reds should target him for, and I think they have a good chance of signing him for that kind of cash. Any more would be dangerous.

BTW - Lilly is only a slight flyball pitcher at this stage in his career. His GB/FB ratio over the last two seasons is nearly identical to Arroyo's, and his K/9 is better.

[Slyder]

I wouldn't call the Phillips acquisition an educated gamble -- that was a no-risk deal that only cost the Reds a PTBNL. Same with David Ross. Krivsky can't count on finding deals like that every year. Some risk is necessary.

Unfortunately, Krivsky's one big risk (the Kearns/Lopez deal) was a disaster, and now the talent cupboard is bare. On the bright side, Castellini has shown a willingness to spend money, so why not start taking some risks with a replaceable resource (cash) instead of a valuable commodity (talent)?

Ted Lilly made $4 million this season. I don't think he'll double that in free agency. I think he can be had for $6-$7 million per season. That's the range the Reds should target him for, and I think they have a good chance of signing him for that kind of cash. Any more would be dangerous.

BTW - Lilly is only a slight flyball pitcher at this stage in his career. His GB/FB ratio over the last two seasons is nearly identical to Arroyo's, and his K/9 is better.

If this is the case why not just pony up the extra 4-8 mil and pay for one of the "top flight" pitchers? I'd rather pay mroe for a Jason Schmidt than get another Eric Milton here.

[flyer85]

Ted Lilly made $4 million this season. I don't think he'll double that in free agency. I think he can be had for $6-$7 million per season. I would expect Lilly top easily double his salary. Someone will thow some serious cash at him for 4 years.

[Johnny Footstool]

If this is the case why not just pony up the extra 4-8 mil and pay for one of the "top flight" pitchers? I'd rather pay mroe for a Jason Schmidt than get another Eric Milton here.

Because the top flight pitchers are a bigger risk, and they probably wouldn't sign with the Reds anyway, even if you threw the extra money at them.

$6-7 million for Ted Lilly isn't nearly the risk that $12-15 million on Schmidt or Zito would be. There's a much better chance that Lilly will earn his money than Schmidt or Zito would earn theirs.


I would expect Lilly top easily double his salary. Someone will thow some serious cash at him for 4 years.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[mth123]

I wouldn't call the Phillips acquisition an educated gamble -- that was a no-risk deal that only cost the Reds a PTBNL. Same with David Ross. Krivsky can't count on finding deals like that every year. Some risk is necessary.


Yeah, I thought I may need to explain this more. By educated gamble I only mean that Phillips was once a highly regarded prospect who had a bad year or two but is still relatively young and has good athletic talent. If that talent pans out (as it did) he may be of some use for multiple seasons. That is opposed to the "throw it all against the wall and see what sticks approach." This is the approach where aged 30 something players who are 5 years removed from even marginal success are tried.

Giving guys with no track record or a recently poor track records at bats or innings to pitch are gambles even if you get them for free. Phillips was an educated gamble where as the Mays and Michaleks of the world were simply not. A better example may be this: Keeping Cody Ross would have been an educated gamble. Instead the Reds went the retread route and kept Quentin McCracken. That is really what I meant by that. This team needs to hit on a few more of these and there is no room for the McCrackens, Michaleks and Mayses of the world. Ross would have some value for this team right now.

Every year a number of these types of guys become available or are stuck in situations where they don't get a chance and are available for cheap. The reds shouldn't be passing especially if they fill a need area.

I was only trying to make a distinction between Phillips types and pure retreads.

[Johnny Footstool]

Understood.

[Will M]

Would you rather have: 2 good young cheap relievers OR
an expensive 3b who can't hit lefties and wants to play SS plus a lazy overweight expensive OF who has never driven in 90 runs?

'The Trade' might have sucked for 2006 but it will be good going forward.

[Johnny Footstool]

Would you rather have: 2 good young cheap relievers OR
an expensive 3b who can't hit lefties and wants to play SS plus a lazy overweight expensive OF who has never driven in 90 runs?

'The Trade' might have sucked for 2006 but it will be good going forward.

Yeah, keep telling yourself that.

[alloverjr]

Would you rather have: 2 good young cheap relievers OR
an expensive 3b who can't hit lefties and wants to play SS plus a lazy overweight expensive OF who has never driven in 90 runs?

'The Trade' might have sucked for 2006 but it will be good going forward.


Alex, I"ll take the two position players who get on base please.

[Slyder]

Because the top flight pitchers are a bigger risk, and they probably wouldn't sign with the Reds anyway, even if you threw the extra money at them.

Pitcher A: 29 yrs old, career 4.06 ERA (4.50 ERA last year), 1.35 Career WHIP (1.38 last year), 21 HRs Allowed, 0 CGs, 156 Ks, slightly below 3/1 K/BB, Average 6 IP per start, 1.17 GB/FB ratio this year.

Pitcher B: 34 yrs old, career 3.92 (ERA below 3.60 every year except 1 with current team), 1.31 Career Whip (again below that every year except 1), 180 ks, 6.2 IP per start, 3 CGs with 1 Shutout last year, 1.1 GB/FB Career Ratio.

Pitcher C: 30 yrs old, 4.60 ERA (4.31 ERA this year), 1.38 Career WHIP (1.43 last year, to his credit consistantly in the 1.30-1.50 range with 1 exception), 0 CGs since 2004, 28 HRs allowed, 5.2 Innings Per Start Average, 2/1 K/BB Ratio, .82 Career GB/FB ratio.

This is comparision of 3 pitchers that seem to be having the most play on this board. October is all about pitching. You dont have the great rotations any more. If you load up the front of the rotation then youve done more than all of the NL Teams have. We have seen what "b-level" shopping gets you... Eric Milton, Paul Wilson (probably the best of this list), Jimmy Haynes, Doug Peter Paul Mary?? oh ya Dave Williams and honestly Im SICK of it. We are close to have a top tier rotation in baseball with Harang and Arroyo solidified in there spots, and you have Lizard for the 4-5 spot ALREADY here get one more good pitcher and we are playing not watching, why keep up the failed B to C-List policies that date back to Leather Pants?


$6-7 million for Ted Lilly isn't nearly the risk that $12-15 million on Schmidt or Zito would be. There's a much better chance that Lilly will earn his money than Schmidt or Zito would earn theirs.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

6-7 mil and an ERA of 4.50 and a record LIKELY below 500 compared to 12-15 mil and an era of mid 3s and probably IN the playoffs? If you want to bring in Pitcher A to get rid of Milton fine thats an improvement, but if you have a choice to get 1 give me the guy that could be an improvement in the 1-3 cause we already have a bunch of 4-5s we could run out there.

[SultanOfSwing]

Pitcher A: 29 yrs old, career 4.06 ERA (4.50 ERA last year), 1.35 Career WHIP (1.38 last year), 21 HRs Allowed, 0 CGs, 156 Ks, slightly below 3/1 K/BB, Average 6 IP per start, 1.17 GB/FB ratio this year.

Pitcher B: 34 yrs old, career 3.92 (ERA below 3.60 every year except 1 with current team), 1.31 Career Whip (again below that every year except 1), 180 ks, 6.2 IP per start, 3 CGs with 1 Shutout last year, 1.1 GB/FB Career Ratio.

Pitcher C: 30 yrs old, 4.60 ERA (4.31 ERA this year), 1.38 Career WHIP (1.43 last year, to his credit consistantly in the 1.30-1.50 range with 1 exception), 0 CGs since 2004, 28 HRs allowed, 5.2 Innings Per Start Average, 2/1 K/BB Ratio, .82 Career GB/FB ratio.

This is comparision of 3 pitchers that seem to be having the most play on this board. October is all about pitching. You dont have the great rotations any more. If you load up the front of the rotation then youve done more than all of the NL Teams have. We have seen what "b-level" shopping gets you... Eric Milton, Paul Wilson (probably the best of this list), Jimmy Haynes, Doug Peter Paul Mary?? oh ya Dave Williams and honestly Im SICK of it. We are close to have a top tier rotation in baseball with Harang and Arroyo solidified in there spots, and you have Lizard for the 4-5 spot ALREADY here get one more good pitcher and we are playing not watching, why keep up the failed B to C-List policies that date back to Leather Pants?



6-7 mil and an ERA of 4.50 and a record LIKELY below 500 compared to 12-15 mil and an era of mid 3s and probably IN the playoffs? If you want to bring in Pitcher A to get rid of Milton fine thats an improvement, but if you have a choice to get 1 give me the guy that could be an improvement in the 1-3 cause we already have a bunch of 4-5s we could run out there.
Pitcher A = Vicente Padilla
Pitcher B = ?
Pitcher C = Ted Lilly

I'm not sure who the other one. Who is it? Wolf, Meche? Whoever it is, his numbers seem pretty close to Schmidt, but its not him.

[Slyder]

Pitcher A = Vicente Padilla
Pitcher B = ?
Pitcher C = Ted Lilly

I'm not sure who the other one. Who is it? Wolf, Meche? Whoever it is, his numbers seem pretty close to Schmidt, but its not him.

Its Schmidt, the 3 seemed to be "most popular" names being bandied about.

[SultanOfSwing]

Its Schmidt, the 3 seemed to be "most popular" names being bandied about.
Where do you get those numbers from? What I saw they don't match up with Schmidt's stats (at least according to baseballreference.com).

[Slyder]

Where do you get those numbers from? What I saw they don't match up with Schmidt's stats (at least according to baseballreference.com).

Yahoo and ESPN, they include this years full season stats.

[SultanOfSwing]

Yahoo and ESPN, they include this years full season stats.
I think you might want to check it again. Some of those stats are off. Not a big deal, but it did throw me. :)

[Johnny Footstool]

Arroyo's numbers prior to 2006 were not that great, either. I think it's a good bet that Lilly's ERA would be under 4.00 if he came to the Reds -- the switch in leagues would have a huge impact.

I'm not saying Jason Schmidt won't be a better pitcher that Ted Lilly in 2007 or even 2008. The problem is A) I don't think he would sign with the Reds for any reasonable amount of cash, and B) in terms of *performance for dollars spent*, I don't think he'll outpitch Lilly, especially not in tne final few years of his contract.

[registerthis]

'The Trade' might have sucked for 2006 but it will be good going forward.

Based on what, exactly?

[Will M]

Lopez can't hit lefties nor play defense.

Kearns hits for a low average with just ok power for a corner OF.

oh, did i mention they will both get overpaid using the arbitration system?

- Will

[registerthis]

Lopez can't hit lefties nor play defense.

Kearns hits for a low average with just ok power for a corner OF.

oh, did i mention they will both get overpaid using the arbitration system?

- Will

I'm still waiting to see how Majewski, Bray and company are going to make the deal look good.

[BRM]

I'm still waiting to see how Majewski, Bray and company are going to make the deal look good.

Majewski's 8.40 ERA as a Red doesn't do it for you?

[Will M]

anyone with 1/4 of a brain knows Majik was hurt when he came to the Reds and his pitching suffered mightily, when he came back healthy his era was fine

[BRM]

anyone with 1/4 of a brain knows Majik was hurt when he came to the Reds and his pitching suffered mightily, when he came back healthy his era was fine

Well, either Wayne didn't know he was hurt or he knowingly traded for a sore-armed pitcher. Which was it?

[BRM]

I'm still waiting to see how Majewski, Bray and company are going to make the deal look good.

You may be waiting for a long time.

[Red Rover]

Speaking of Bray, is he strickly going to be used in the bullpen or can the Reds make a starting pitcher out of him?

[BRM]

Speaking of Bray, is he strickly going to be used in the bullpen or can the Reds make a starting pitcher out of him?

He was a reliever in college and throughout his minor league career. I'd imagine the Reds are looking at him strictly as a reliever.

[camisadelgolf]

I don't have a link, but I believe Krivsky has said that there is absolutely no intention of moving Bray to the rotation.

[Johnny Footstool]

Seems like we've gone over this a million times...

Bray's future is unwritten, but he melted down pretty badly in a Reds uniform. He has the potential to be a very good reliever, but he has a ways to go.

Majewski allows too many baserunners and strikes out too few batters to ever be considered a high-quality reliever. He's not nearly as valuable as Kearns or Lopez.

You can continue to find fault with those two former Reds, but the fact is they were in the top 10 in OPS at their respective positions at the time of the trade.

[Krusty]

Give Bray and Majeski a full offseason to rest their arms and I think you'll see better results next year.

The money saved by not having to deal with Kearns and Lopez this offseason in arbitration will dictate the moves Krivsky makes this offseason.