Cubs To Follow In Yankees Footsteps And Buy WS

[Jim]

What is up with the Cubs this offseason? How much more money will they throw at the team to buy a WS win? Are the Ramirez and Soriano deals the beginning of more insane deals or are they tapped out? After reading articles like http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2671656&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines, I can't help but wonder what's next?! At this point, if the Reds don't make it to the '07 WS, I'll be happy if ANY team other than the Cubs make it.

[Patrick Bateman]

The Cubs still have a very long way to go before they can be considered WS contenders.

Plus it's the Cubs. At least one of Soriano and Ramirez will get a terminal illness by midseason.

[vaticanplum]

How many World Series have the Yankees actually bought? They keep trying, but how many times has the purchased product malfunctioned at a bad time?

[Jim]

How many World Series have the Yankees actually bought? They keep trying, but how many times has the purchased product malfunctioned at a bad time?

You have a good point, but keep in mind how often the Yanks make the playoffs. If the Cubs buy up all the top free agents (why not add another $100M to their payroll?!), it won't take much for Sweet Lou to be successful in his first season with the Cubbies

[westofyou]

How many World Series have the Yankees actually bought? I don't know, lets ask Arnold Johnson.

[jmac]

the yanks seem to load lineup with allstars like jeter, a-rod,sheff,giambi...etc but have only "decent" pitching.then in the playoffs face lesser offenses but above avg starters like over the years:colon/lackey....zito,hudson....schilling,pedro etc
you know the riddle:
what stops good hitting and wins championship? hint=one word

[Topcat]

the yanks seem to load lineup with allstars like jeter, a-rod,sheff,giambi...etc but have only "decent" pitching.then in the playoffs face lesser offenses but above avg starters like over the years:colon/lackey....zito,hudson....schilling,pedro etc
you know the riddle:
what stops good hitting and wins championship? hint=one word


Bingo! sadly the Yankee's have not figured out that the best pitching is usually not for sale until its tires are worn or comes with a mammoth price tag. The Yankee's should spend more $$$ on development and patience. over the years patience has never been the big "stein" MO though.

[MrCinatit]

Much like the Yankees, the Cubs have spent a lot - on hitting.
Their pitching, meanwhile, consists of Zambrano, a couple of guys whose arms could fall off, and a collection of some other guys.

And let us not forget - this is the Cubs we are talking about. They will find some way to blow it.

[terminator]

Yes, exactly. The Cubs' pitching isn't even close to being contending material. If Hill is their #2 again, they will need more than Soriano to make up the run differential.

Plus they lost Pierre. It will be hard to replace his $9MM of production.

[NJReds]

If there's no rule against spending, why should a team with money not try to "buy" a World Series?

[Heath]

If there's no rule against spending, why should a team with money not try to "buy" a World Series?

It's called the 1997 Florida Marlins and the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.

The short-term euphoria can cause some long-term damage.

[NJReds]

It's called the 1997 Florida Marlins and the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.

The short-term euphoria can cause some long-term damage.

The Cubs haven't been so successful. I think if they won the WS this year, it wouldn't matter how much they spent.

The Marlins have won 2 World Series in the last 10 years.

[westofyou]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5717&PHPSESSID=b28cf3b9f37e0737fab6b04416751e99


In 1981, the Tribune Co. purchased the Cubs for $21 million dollars, or approximately $94 million in today's dollars (accounting for inflation). Forbes valuates MLB clubs every April, and by their calculations, the “Loveable Losers” were valued at $448 million—a 12% increase in value from the year prior—ranking them the fifth most valuable club in all of MLB at the beginning of the 2006 season, behind only the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees. In recent history, the Cubs have been a climbing to the top of the industry finanancially.

Yet, during the period of Tribune ownership, the Cubs have amassed a weak .476 winning percentage, having only won the Division three times, finished second once, third three times, with a heavy dose of fourth-, fifth- and sixth-place gutterballs to round out the 25-year stretch. Yet, as I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the Cubs fly in the face conventional wisdom, because despite the losing, the Cubs continue to be a popular draw

While the team was posting a .476 winning percentage over the entirety of Tribune ownership, Wrigley has been at 73 percent of capacity, and that's getting better of late. For the past decade, they have averaged 2,769,503 fans, or 87 percent of capacity, while posting a .473 winning percentage. Since 2000 they have averaged 2,945,438 fans annually, or a stunning 93% of capacity while holding a .478 winning percentage. Since 2004, the Cubs have drawn over three million fans per season, running at 100.61%, 98.38% and 93.77% of capacity. Last year's percentage of capacity was especially impressive, as the seating capacity of Wrigley was bumped up to 41,118 and the club posted the aforementioned train wreck of a season.

Valuing the Cubs Against Recent Sales

While Forbes values the Cubs at $448 million, the recent sale of the Washington Nationals and the pending sale of the Atlanta Braves will most assuredly push the value of the Cubs higher. The Nationals recently sold for $450 million, and by all indications, the Braves will be sold by Time Warner to Liberty Media for approximately $600 million. Despite the losing, the Cubs are a solid investment for two primary reasons: Wrigley Field and superstation WGN (if acquired in conjunction with the club). The Cubs have incredible resilience compared to other franchises in the sense that they are almost exclusively unaffected by continually losing. They have incredible fan loyalty nationwide, and are ranked behind only the Yankees, Red Sox and Braves in brand recognition. In part, this is the benefit of cultivating a nationwide fan base through WGN’s longevity as a superstation. Given these factors, and in anticipation of continued revenue growth, the Cubs could fetch $600-$650 million as a stand-alone sale.

[oneupper]

Even a very powerful team has the odds against it for winning the WS with the 8 team playoff format.

Too much randomness...(and that's a good thing, IMO).

[TOBTTReds]

Atleast the cubs kicked the crap out of us last year with a bad team, so it can't get much worse no matter who they get.

[steig]

The Cubs are not wisely spending money. I believe Ramirez is a good signing but Soriano's contract will most likely hurt them in the long run. Soriano will be 31 at the start of next year (he could be older), he strikes out 160 times a year, and he is a poor outfielder who they plan on moving to center field. THe Cubs are reportedly interesting in Cliff Floyd to play left field also. With all the wind at Wrigley I can't imagine the Cubs outfield being very good defensively. The Cubs still don't have a dependable rotation and this isn't the first time the Cubs have spent big money in the FA market. They did sign Maddux a few years ago and Derek Lee...the result was still a losing team. I just don't believe their management is very good. I'm not concerned about the Cubs contending for a World Series or even the division.

[Matt700wlw]

I still don't like them

:D

[Natty Redlocks]

The Cubs are not wisely spending money. I believe Ramirez is a good signing but Soriano's contract will most likely hurt them in the long run. Soriano will be 31 at the start of next year (he could be older), he strikes out 160 times a year, and he is a poor outfielder who they plan on moving to center field. THe Cubs are reportedly interesting in Cliff Floyd to play left field also. With all the wind at Wrigley I can't imagine the Cubs outfield being very good defensively. The Cubs still don't have a dependable rotation and this isn't the first time the Cubs have spent big money in the FA market. They did sign Maddux a few years ago and Derek Lee...the result was still a losing team. I just don't believe their management is very good. I'm not concerned about the Cubs contending for a World Series or even the division.

I'm going to have to disagree here. First, we'll see how Soriano does. Last year was his first in the OF and he got better as the year went on. He definitely has the tools to be an above average OF. His contract may hurt them in the long run, but he'd have to, I don't know, go on the DL every freaking year for it to really debilitate them immediately. I'd sure hate to be the loser team stuck with a player like that long-term.

Although they did talk about putting Soriano in CF, now they're pencilling him in to RF. They want a one year or so stopgap for Felix Pie in center, and platoon Murton in left, possibly with Floyd or Jacque Jones if he isn't moved. Bottom line is they're going to have a much more productive offense, with depth. And there's no reason to believe they won't improve the rotation in a similar fashion. The signing of Soriano shows other FAs they're serious about contending and will help them get the guys they want.

Finally, yes, they got Maddux and Lee in '04. The result was not a playoff team but they did win 89 games, so I don't know if that technically counts as a "losing team". I will say that I wouldn't hire Dusty Baker to manage a lemonade stand, let alone an MLB team.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not enamored with the Cubs, but they are another team I follow as well as the Reds, and I would be lying if I said I was more excited about the Reds in '07 than the Cubs at this point, though it's still early.

[RedsBaron]

The great run the Yankees had from 1996 through 2001, while certainly helped by the acquisition of free agents, was in large part the result of a productive farm system. When Steinbrenner has simply attempted to buy a championship by acquiring every high priced free agent in sight and by trading away young talent for more established players, the Yankees have not been as successful as when their team was built through their farm system, with free agents merely adding to the team rather than being the centerpiece.

[TeamSelig]

Cubs will have a killer lineup...

C Barrett 885 OPS
1B Lee 842 OPS (1080 the non-injured season b4)
2B Derosa 813 OPS
SS Cedeno/Izturis 610/613 OPS
3B Ramirez 913 OPS
LF Jones 833 OPS
CF Soriano 911 OPS
RF Murton 809 OPS

Desperately need a SS, but thats only one bad hitter and they have pretty good defense there. I think whoever starts there will probably improve as well.

Rotation doesn't look good, but if Prior can stay healthy (haha) it wouldn't be THAT bad. Prior is a stud and so is Zambrano. Hill is decent. Thats a good enough 3 to win some games. And maybe Wade Miller can have a decent year. Their bullpen isn't too bad with Wood, Dempster, Howry, and Eyre.

If the Cubs pick up one of the remaining SP (Padilla, Meche, or Lilly) then I think we are in big trouble. Of course the Cubs always manage to screw everything up, but on paper they have a pretty good team. I'd say they are probably the favorite for next year.

[steig]

I'm going to have to disagree here. First, we'll see how Soriano does. Last year was his first in the OF and he got better as the year went on. He definitely has the tools to be an above average OF. His contract may hurt them in the long run, but he'd have to, I don't know, go on the DL every freaking year for it to really debilitate them immediately. I'd sure hate to be the loser team stuck with a player like that long-term.

Although they did talk about putting Soriano in CF, now they're pencilling him in to RF. They want a one year or so stopgap for Felix Pie in center, and platoon Murton in left, possibly with Floyd or Jacque Jones if he isn't moved. Bottom line is they're going to have a much more productive offense, with depth. And there's no reason to believe they won't improve the rotation in a similar fashion. The signing of Soriano shows other FAs they're serious about contending and will help them get the guys they want.

Finally, yes, they got Maddux and Lee in '04. The result was not a playoff team but they did win 89 games, so I don't know if that technically counts as a "losing team". I will say that I wouldn't hire Dusty Baker to manage a lemonade stand, let alone an MLB team.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not enamored with the Cubs, but they are another team I follow as well as the Reds, and I would be lying if I said I was more excited about the Reds in '07 than the Cubs at this point, though it's still early.

I shouldn't have said a losing team, but they were unable to buy a playoff or world series. A lot of teams can spend money to try and buy a world series. The dodgers have been spending over 100 million each year for several years and have not gotten anywhere. The Mets would always spend a lot of money and they weren't consistent until Omar Manya took over the GM spot. The World Series is not always won by a big spender, but by a moderate payrole team with a good GM, look at the last 6 World Series. Only the Red Sox were a big spender. I know you can buy a world series but it just seems like every year a team or two spends a ton of money and the media hypes them up and then the team fails and is a disappointment. I just believe the Cubs will be that team this year (at least I hope). A good GM has to be in charge of the team in order for a team to win the series.

On a second note, I believe the Marlins buying their first world series was one of the best moves they made. They traded every salary off after the series for prospects and have put themselves into this 5 year cycle of being competative for a world series and then rebuilding.

[Tigs]

good thing they can't buy Mark Prior's health ;)