What About These Remaining Free Agents?

[Krusty]

What about these remaining free agents becoming a Red?

]David Bell: Could be the righthanded bat that we need to play lst and 3rd base.

Aaron Boone: Might be available at a rock bottom price.

[B]Keith Foulke: Former closer who had two off-seasons due to injuries. Might be receptive to a one year deal loaded with incentives?B]

[B]Devern Hansack: Who? A Boston pitcher who got a cup of coffee but had pretty good minor league stats at their Triple A club:http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=468962

Dustin Hermanson: Injuries derailed his 2006 season but if you look at his 2005 season, you have to wonder if he is worth the chance?

LHP Juan Lara Minor league pitcher that had nice stats for Cleveland's Double A team:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=444312

[B]RHP David Riske: Might make another decent setup man.

[B]Craig Wilson lb-OFHe would make an excellent righthanded hitting lst baseman platoon and a backup for Ken Griffey, Jr. in RF.

OF Preston Wilson: At this stage of his career, he might make a nice fourth OF while providing some pop off the bench.

[blumj]

Devern Hansack's not a free agent.

[jojo]

The only fella on that list that interests me is C. Wilson. I like Bell but his value is derived mostly from his glove.

[Spring~Fields]

What about these remaining free agents becoming a Red?


RHP David Riske: Might make another decent setup man.

[B]Craig Wilson lb-OFHe would make an excellent righthanded hitting lst baseman platoon and a backup for Ken Griffey, Jr. in RF.



Riske and Wilson look like they might be able to help the Reds as long as they are healthy and are not priced out of sight.

[vaticanplum]

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[Spring~Fields]

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:evil:
Should I agree?
Interpreter please :)

[MrCinatit]

:evil:
Should I agree?
Interpreter please :)

*coughBarryZitocough*

Yeah. I would love that guy on this team. Love it.

[Spring~Fields]

*coughBarryZitocough*

Yeah. I would love that guy on this team. Love it.

Oh yeah, Zito, works for me. :thumbup:

[vaticanplum]

:)

[TOBTTReds]

Craig Wilson in a heart beat...Sorry, I wouldn't want Milton...errr I mean Zito. No I don't really think he would be like Milton, but his numbers would plummett here. He is a fly ball pitcher without a lot of control.

[jojo]

Craig Wilson in a heart beat...Sorry, I wouldn't want Milton...errr I mean Zito. No I don't really think he would be like Milton, but his numbers would plummett here. He is a fly ball pitcher without a lot of control.

and his k/9 rates are trending down which exposes those tendencies........

IMHO, Zito is a very risky signing especially for the duration that his contractual demands are rumored to require....

[vaticanplum]

IMHO, Zito is a very risky signing especially for the duration that his contractual demands are rumored to require....

I don't want to be a broken record, but he works incredibly hard. He's one of the few already-great pitchers in baseball whom I think could adapt to this park.

Free agents are always, always going to be tough to come by for the Reds for just that reason. Our farm system isn't ready yet. Thus I think he is the best option.

[jojo]

I don't want to be a broken record, but he works incredibly hard. He's one of the few already-great pitchers in baseball whom I think could adapt to this park.

Free agents are always, always going to be tough to come by for the Reds for just that reason. Our farm system isn't ready yet. Thus I think he is the best option.

This is a sincere question: by what metrics is he a worthy of being one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball? Guys often get paid for what they have done in the past but really, its important to value them for what they'll do over the course of their contract. Clearly Zito of the last three years isn't the same guy as the Zito of his first three seasons. He stills eats innings and his ERAs look good but his peripherals are getting pretty scary-especially for someone reportedly demanding 6-7 years at $15M per. Basically, his xFIPS have been steadily climbing, his K/G has been trending downward and his BB/G has been trending up. The latter two are death knells for a guy with flyball tendencies (in any park). Right now xFIP is generally excepted as the best predictor of future performance for a pitcher. Zito's last year was an icky 5.46 (mlb average for starters was: 4.60). Importantly, Zito hasn't been above average relative to the league for the last three seasons using xFIP as an indicator.

So, IMHO, its a scary proposition to commit so much for so long to a guy whose peripherals seem to scream will be in a decline phase from day one of the contract. Intangibles be damned when talking about that kind of money.

I'd much rather use a stop gap like Lohse and hope Homer can be ready by August. I mean even if Zito gives you two solid years, what will you do for the final 4-5??? There is the potential that you'll have an even more expensive facsimile of Milton that can't be traded away. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that a good version of Zito in '07 puts the Reds into the playoffs.

Frankly, given the insane market for the mediocre crop of FA arms this year, I would've spent what money I had earmarked for FAs by loading up on offense and defense.

Anyways that's the world according to me.... :)

[vaticanplum]

This is a sincere question: by what metrics is he a worthy of being one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball? Guys often get paid for what they have done in the past but really, its important to value them for what they'll do over the course of their contract. Clearly Zito of the last three years isn't the same guy as the Zito of his first three seasons. He stills eats innings and his ERAs look good but his peripherals are getting pretty scary-especially for someone reportedly demanding 6-7 years at $15M per. Basically, his xFIPS have been steadily climbing, his K/G has been trending downward and his BB/G has been trending up. The latter two are death knells for a guy with flyball tendencies (in any park). Right now xFIP is generally excepted as the best predictor of future performance for a pitcher. Zito's last year was an icky 5.46 (mlb average for starters was: 4.60). Importantly, Zito hasn't been above average relative to the league for the last three seasons using xFIP as an indicator.

So, IMHO, its a scary proposition to commit so much for so long to a guy whose peripherals seem to scream will be in a decline phase from day one of the contract. Intangibles be damned when talking about that kind of money.

I'd much rather use a stop gap like Lohse and hope Homer can be ready by August. I mean even if Zito gives you two solid years, what will you do for the final 4-5??? There is the potential that you'll have an even more expensive facsimile of Milton that can't be traded away. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that a good version of Zito in '07 puts the Reds into the playoffs.

Frankly, given the insane market for the mediocre crop of FA arms this year, I would've spent what money I had earmarked for FAs by loading up on offense and defense.

Anyways that's the world according to me.... :)

200+ innings for six years straight. Only one of those years accumulating more than a 4.00 ERA -- and that being three seasons ago. Only twice allowing more than 200 hits on those 200+ innings. A fairly steady WHIP. I think that Barry zito has made a case for himself, above all else, for consistency at this point. And it is this above all else that endears him so much to me. And the fact that he works his tail off is just more icing for me. If he proves to be overrated, then I think some team will get a handful of absolutely stellar seasons out of him for a decent price, and in this world, what more can any team really hope for out of a pitcher?

He's going to have to have a genuinely scary season to convince me that he is in any way declining at this point. He hasn't gotten near close so far. To compare Zito to Lohse, even as a stopgap, is not only absurd to me, but indicative of absolutely what is fundamentally wrong with this team.

[edabbs44]

I would like to see Eduardo Perez over C Wilson. He would probably be a lot cheaper.

I like Riske a lot (despite maybe the worst last name a FA reliever could have) but I might vomit if Wayne goes after more bullpen help. Especially arms that will cost decent money.

The other guy I wouldn't have minded was JC Romero. But that all depends on the amt of $$ Boston had to give him.

[jojo]

200+ innings for six years straight. Only one of those years accumulating more than a 4.00 ERA -- and that being three seasons ago. Only twice allowing more than 200 hits on those 200+ innings. A fairly steady WHIP. I think that Barry zito has made a case for himself, above all else, for consistency at this point. And it is this above all else that endears him so much to me. And the fact that he works his tail off is just more icing for me. If he proves to be overrated, then I think some team will get a handful of absolutely stellar seasons out of him for a decent price, and in this world, what more can any team really hope for out of a pitcher?

He's going to have to have a genuinely scary season to convince me that he is in any way declining at this point. He hasn't gotten near close so far. To compare Zito to Lohse, even as a stopgap, is not only absurd to me, but indicative of absolutely what is fundamentally wrong with this team.



ERA, WHIP, intangibles.....blech.... :)

Those are all flawed metrics for evaluating a pitcher and none of them look forward.... and all of them can hide the decline suggested by his peripherals while failing to account for him pitching in a pitcher's paradise at home (and in basically his whole division Arlington excluded).

We're talking about making a 6-7 year commitment at probably $15M per...

Pecota hasn't been updated yet for '07 but their pitching projections generally have been the best around (certainly though Pecota isn't the end all but it's as good as anything for the discussion). I suspect the '07 projections will be less optimistic but using the '06 projections, Zito is predicted to only be a 3 win pitcher as early as the second year of his next contract (that would nonetheless be paying him like he was a premier TOR arm). Playing devil's advocate and assuming Pecota is destiny for a moment, deciding to accept the likelihood that you'd be overpaying for production as early as year 2 of a 7 year deal ($5M/win) hardly seems like good risk management. The Reds have adopted a small market payroll philosophy (whether we agree its appropriate or not doesn't matter-they've decided there is only so much jack to go around). Effective risk management is absolutely essential when formulating rosters if they hope to be competitive given what they're willing to spend.


To compare Zito to Lohse, even as a stopgap, is not only absurd to me, but indicative of absolutely what is fundamentally wrong with this team.

Actually, I'd argue that having roughly 30% of payroll tied up in contracts for two guys who essentially are giving you replacement level production (Griffey, Milton) is what is fundamentally wrong with this team. IMHO, there is a compelling argument that Zito could end up being a similar situation. At least there certainly is cause for pause....

Anyway, these are the kinds of fun arguments that make the hotstove so inviting...

:beerme:

[vaticanplum]

I suspect the '07 projections will be less optimistic but using the '06 projections, Zito is predicted to only be a 3 win pitcher as early as the second year of his next contract (that would nonetheless be paying him like he was a premier TOR arm). Playing devil's advocate and assuming Pecota is destiny for a moment, deciding to accept the likelihood that you'd be overpaying for production as early as year 2 of a 7 year deal ($5M/win) hardly seems like good risk management. The Reds have adopted a small market payroll philosophy (whether we agree its appropriate or not doesn't matter-they've decided there is only so much jack to go around). Effective risk management is absolutely essential when formulating rosters if they hope to be competitive given what they're willing to spend.

Your arguments are not without merit, but I cannot toast to that.

Spending money once in a while, on something that deserves it, could serve the Reds fairly well. That's not overpayment. That's reality. I understand what you mean regarding the best possible value out of your dollar, but EVERY team is doing that, even the Yankees. It's not a special secret philosophy. Every team is trying to save money, and every team has to pay out once in a while. Seriously, to compare Milton to Zito? THAT is what is wrong with things. Spending money is not inherently all wrong; discerning where it is worth it is what seems to be the problem with this team.

[Jpup]

already-great pitchers

you had me until you said that. I don't know if I could call him great. He's has been good, but not great. Roger Clemens is great, Barry Zito, well not so much.


discerning where it is worth it is what seems to be the problem with this team.

Zito is not worth 100 million or more to the Reds.

[Jpup]

I would also like to say that if the Reds could magically sign Zito, I wouldn't complain because I would love it, but I don't think it would be smart.:)

[Jim]

Last I heard in White Sox news, Hermanson is done with baseball.

[schroomytunes]

I think this team has to sign Craig Wilson, for 2 reasons. 1. We need a righty to platoon with Hatteberg at 1st base with some pop. 2. We need to have someone to spell Griffey in Rf and still have some resemblence of an offense. I think our pitching will be ok in 07, but our offense has some questions to be answered. If Wilson comes aboard it will definitly be a boost to the bench/offense. And by no means will it hogtie the purse strings.

[Krusty]

I think this team has to sign Craig Wilson, for 2 reasons. 1. We need a righty to platoon with Hatteberg at 1st base with some pop. 2. We need to have someone to spell Griffey in Rf and still have some resemblence of an offense. I think our pitching will be ok in 07, but our offense has some questions to be answered. If Wilson comes aboard it will definitly be a boost to the bench/offense. And by no means will it hogtie the purse strings.


I agree. With Griffey's numerous injuries and platooning with Hatteberg at lst, Wilson could get 400 + at bats. I also would sign Riske and try to move Majewski to Philadelphia for RHP Jon Leiber.

[BEETTLEBUG]

I would go for the Majewski to Phillies for Lieber but I would sign Armas Jr. instead of Riskie

[AdamDunn]

If we traded Dunn, I'd sign Preston Wilson... and i've always loved David Riske, so I'd love him on the team... btw, we already have Stanton and Bray, we don't need another lefty

[The_jbh]

I'm nervous about giving any right handed bat that can play 3rd a contract bc i can see him getting hot and we have Narron benching EE

[KoryMac5]

If Meche is worth 11 million per than Zito is worth the 15 million per year. The market is dictating what Zito is worth. He already has an offer in that range from Texas but he is holding out for the Mets.

[Krusty]

If Meche is worth 11 million per than Zito is worth the 15 million per year. The market is dictating what Zito is worth. He already has an offer in that range from Texas but he is holding out for the Mets.

Which makes it very important the Reds lock Harang to a four year deal this offseason.

[Spring~Fields]

Which makes it very important the Reds lock Harang to a four year deal this offseason.

That is what I am waiting to see with interest, how they handle Harang and Arroyo when it comes to contracts. I know they still have some window, but it will be interesting to see how they approach them.

[Jpup]

That is what I am waiting to see with interest, how they handle Harang and Arroyo when it comes to contracts. I know they still have some window, but it will be interesting to see how they approach them.

I highly doubt Arroyo will want to sign before he becomes a free agent unless the Reds throw a huge extended contract at him. That is something that never seems to happen in Cincinnati and in this case, that's probably good.

[Spring~Fields]

I highly doubt Arroyo will want to sign before he becomes a free agent unless the Reds throw a huge extended contract at him. That is something that never seems to happen in Cincinnati and in this case, that's probably good.


They better be on target with their limited starting pitching as difficult as it is for the Reds to ever find any or Reds fans will be talking “next year” for many years to come, come to think of it they have already been doing that for many years.

[Gamble]

Mark Mulder is still out there, what is his timeline to return to the mound?

[Highlifeman21]

Mark Mulder is still out there, what is his timeline to return to the mound?

I thought I'd never say this, but Milton > Mulder.

I need to go rest now, I'm not feeling so well after typing that.

[Jpup]

Mark Mulder is still out there, what is his timeline to return to the mound?

He'll sign soon after Zito does. I would guess that he will end up in Arizona or St. Louis. I would love for the Reds to sign him though.