Zito to San Fran

[cincy09]

According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, the Giants and Barry Zito have agreed to a seven-year deal worth about $18 million per year.

$18 million per year for seven years would be $126 million, which is the same deal that Vernon Wells just got. Not that they should have gone this high, but Zito would have made a lot more sense on the Mets. The Giants still don't project to have a very good team this year, and the combination of having one of baseball's oldest teams and weakest farm systems suggests things are only going to get worse. The Giants could stay afloat in the post-Barry Bonds era by spending $100 million-$120 million per year, but they're probably not going to build another great team with Brian Sabean at the helm.

[cincy09]

Guess he is gonna try the senior circuit

[Degenerate39]

How old is Zito?

[cincy09]

How old is Zito?

iirc 28

[Degenerate39]

iirc 28

Then a 7 year deal isnt bad

[cincy09]

Then a 7 year deal isnt bad

IT could be......
What if he goes all Milton on them? That's a lot of money to be owed over a long period!

[Team Clark]

IT could be......
What if he goes all Milton on them? That's a lot of money to be owed over a long period!

Then they can force him to the DL and pull a "Bagwell".:laugh:

[Strikes Out Looking]

Is it me, or have most NL teams made what seem to be horrific decisions this offseason?

[LoganBuck]

There goes that second round draft pick from the Giants for Aurillia.

[Joseph]

There goes that second round draft pick from the Giants for Aurillia.

D'oh!

[flyer85]

Then a 7 year deal isnt badfor any pitcher a 7 year deal is awful.

[Falls City Beer]

There goes that second round draft pick from the Giants for Aurillia.

Yeah, super. :rolleyes:

Per usual, the Reds get nothing for a guy with inflated value.

[LoganBuck]

Yeah, super. :rolleyes:

Per usual, the Reds get nothing for a guy with inflated value.

Do they now get the Giants third round pick?

[TOBTTReds]

There goes that second round draft pick from the Giants for Aurillia.

Why is that? I guess I missed the rule on this. Is it bc now the Giants give that pick to the A's?

[Falls City Beer]

Do they now get the Giants third round pick?

I don't know how it works, but it's just the constant syndrome of this team: hemorrhaging value.

[vaticanplum]

Fun story: about an hour ago, on this bright, sunny, non-windy day, for no reason at all, my power went out. Normally I would just prance around the house pretending to be in Little House on the Prairie. At that moment, however, I happened to be finishing up the final pieces of a huge piece of writing that I need to mail, via Fed Ex, TOMORROW. It being a bright, sunny, non-windy day, I had not thought to save my work as I went along. The power was out for only a split second, and during that time, as the horror, shock, and tears quickly settled in, I prayed to every god on earth and beyond that it would be just a little blip and that my computer would come back on. Yeah, no.

You think these horror stories are made up. You think that ostensible grown-ups know to save their work as they go along. You think wrong.

To relieve my nerves and to give me a minute to decide what to do from here on, I take a little break and visit Redszone. And Zito's gone to the Giants, one of the lamest teams in baseball along with the Angels and any team from Texas.

It's icing really. This may be the worst day of my life in which someone hasn't died.

Ok, carry on. What do the Reds do now?

[flyer85]

I don't know how it works, but it's just the constant syndrome of this team: hemorrhaging value.I was never a huge RA fan but the Reds are really going to miss him in 2007. He killed lefties and I was perusing THT 2007 Annual and Rich was solid defenisvely at all the infield positions. Maybe he was short on range but he could start and turn DPs.

[lollipopcurve]

The Reds get a supplemental first rounder (it's like #37 overall) and now the Giants 3rd round pick (very high 3rd rounder). I'd say that's decent value for Aurilia.

And what a shocker -- Zito stays on the west coast.

[Falls City Beer]

I was never a huge RA fan but the Reds are really going to miss him in 2007. He killed lefties and I was perusing THT 2007 Annual and Rich was solid defenisvely at all the infield positions. Maybe he was short on range but he could start and turn DPs.

Ugh. Defensive metrics. RA was a statue. I'm not going to miss his D, but man, they should have traded him last deadline. Now the Reds get an ever-diminishing return.

[LoganBuck]

Why is that? I guess I missed the rule on this. Is it bc now the Giants give that pick to the A's?

The way I understood it was that each FA is given a numerical ranking, I am assuming that Zito is a higher ranking player than Aurilia. The rankings decide draft pick compensation in cases like this. That is at least the way I understood it.

[Hoosier Red]

I was never a huge RA fan but the Reds are really going to miss him in 2007. He killed lefties and I was perusing THT 2007 Annual and Rich was solid defenisvely at all the infield positions. Maybe he was short on range but he could start and turn DPs.

Aurillia's last two seasons before going to the Reds provided nothing for optimism.
I think Gonzalez will replace Aurillia from a power standpoint.

[jojo]

Then a 7 year deal isnt bad


IMHO, and meaning no disrespect, but that of course is about as insane a statement as ever there is likely to be posted again in the future history of the world... :D


:beerme:

[Heath]

I can't believe that the Giants got Zito. He's should bring the average age down for the starters to at least 35.

I wonder if the Giants got confused. Maybe they were thinking they signed Omar Vizquel's godson instead of Omar Vizquel's grandson.


:dunno:

[lollipopcurve]

The way I understood it was that each FA is given a numerical ranking, I am assuming that Zito is a higher ranking player than Aurilia. The rankings decide draft pick compensation in cases like this. That is at least the way I understood it.

That's how I understand it too.

[edabbs44]

Is it me, or have most NL teams made what seem to be horrific decisions this offseason?

Can't say this is horrific. When you have $, then moves like these look a lot better.

[flyer85]

I think Gonzalez will replace Aurillia from a power standpoint.

Aurilia slugged 444 in 05 and 518 in 06
Gonzo slugged 368 in 05 and 397 in 06

It is highly unlikely Gonzo comes anywhere close to replacing Aurilia's numbers. He has only slugged over 400 3 times in his career and has never reached 444.

[jojo]

To relieve my nerves and to give me a minute to decide what to do from here on, I take a little break and visit Redszone. And Zito's gone to the Giants, one of the lamest teams in baseball along with the Angels and any team from Texas.


Maybe word will recover your document....

On a lighter note, upon reading the details of the contract, I spewed forth diet cherry coke onto my computer screen like Krakatoa hurled pumice on unsuspecting sightseers picnicking on its pristine volcanic beaches in 1883 (I mean who knew a festering volcano could actually erupt?)....

Boras just had to include that option for an 8th year-and to think people suggest he doesn't have a sense of humor.... :beerme:

[Falls City Beer]

Aurilia slugged 444 in 05 and 518 in 06
Gonzo slugged 368 in 05 and 397 in 06

It is highly unlikely Gonzo comes anywhere close to replacing Aurilia's numbers. He has only slugged over 400 3 times in his career and has never reached 444.

I was thinking the same thing. Gonzo will replace Aurilia's best attribute, power?

I don't think so.

[jojo]

Can't say this is horrific. When you have $, then moves like these look a lot better.


so paying $600 for an ashtray looks good because the pentagon did it? :cool:

[Wheelhouse]

Ugh. Defensive metrics. RA was a statue. I'm not going to miss his D, but man, they should have traded him last deadline. Now the Reds get an ever-diminishing return.

Nonsense. 1 error in 26 games at SS. Work it out over a season--pretty darn good. Rich was railed on by the board and became the most consistent producer on the team, and the only position player who seemed to have the mettle of a contender down the stretch. Now the criticisms are of his range. The final and only rap you can have on his game. And he's not a "statue". He's not Alex Gonzalez but he is a very servicable SS. Oh but no! Cries of worry and concern! 1 error in 26 games at SS. C'mon. I'll take that over the utterly demoralizing, wind-taking and numerous errors of FeLo. And Rich out-performed him with the bat too! I defy any metrician who trolled Aurilia at the start of last season to say, "My analysis of him was wrong." Too much ego here.

[flyer85]

I was thinking the same thing. Gonzo will replace Aurilia's best attribute, power?

I don't think so.the only upside to Gonzo is supposedly defense. Looking at THTs fielding numbers from last year, Alex Cora put up some numbers that make me question how good Gonzo really is with the glove. He certainly has never been known as a speedster.

[pedro]

Aurilia is a statue and has no business playing SS. It's as plain as day.

[flyer85]

Nonsense. 1 error in 26 games at SS. Work it out over a season--pretty darn good. one thing I noted in the fielding metrics of the THT Annual is that Rich had a higher rate of starting and turning DPs at the defensive positions than the other Reds who played there. I find it hard to believe it was merely a fluke. BTW, Clayton was awful(in comparision to Felo and RA) at both rates.

[Falls City Beer]

the only upside to Gonzo is supposedly defense. Looking at THTs fielding numbers from last year, Alex Cora put up some numbers that make me question how good Gonzo really is with the glove. He certainly has never been known as a speedster.

Gonzo is a fine defender, but he's 30 now, and by the time his contract's up (33), his abilities won't likely be in line with his contract at all. To earn his paycheck, Gonzo will have to be an elite defender, not just a very good one.

[edabbs44]

so paying $600 for an ashtray looks good because the pentagon did it? :cool:

No, b/c I'm not competing with the Pentagon.

The bottom line is, when the dust clears, the Reds will have Milton, Lohse and Mr. X in their rotation and SF will have Zito. It's time to face facts: Cincinnati will not be involved in October any time soon unless some serious philosophical changes are made.

[Wheelhouse]

Aurilia is a statue and has no business playing SS. It's as plain as day.
Oh, uh, OK. Check Flyer85's post.

[Will M]

Shocking! A Boras client went to the team that offered the most money.
Will wonders never cease?

In all seriousness that contract is WAY too much for an ex ace who is now more like a #2 starter. Plus it is seven years for a pitcher.

Despite this the Giants won't be that good this year ( IMO ). You can't win with a bunch of old guys and no youngsters. ( see the Orioles year after year ). A few old guys is fine. Old guys as role players is fine. But you can't have your entire lineup be age 35.

[flyer85]

Oh, uh, OK. Check Flyer85's post.I am not suggesting that he moves well. However, the numbers do suggest that he may do other things well that help to offset his lack of range.

[mth123]

I can't believe that the Giants got Zito. He's should bring the average age down for the starters to at least 35.

I wonder if the Giants got confused. Maybe they were thinking they signed Omar Vizquel's godson instead of Omar Vizquel's grandson.


:dunno:

Actually the rotation looks pretty good and not real old. Zito (who will be ok in that park), Cain (the real ace), Morris, Lowry, Hennessey, Sanchez.

The old guys on offense may be enough with that. If Roberts, Vizquel and Winn can get on base in Front of Bonds that team could surprise. The bottom half of the line-up with Durham, Aurilia/Klesko/Sweeney, Molina and Feliz is pretty good for a bottom part of the order. Much better than what the Reds could run out there.

[pedro]

Oh, uh, OK. Check Flyer85's post.

all that tells me is that Lopez & Clayton stink at SS too. Rich does do a good job around the bag and does have a good hands, no argument there, he just doesn't have the range to pick it at SS anymore. Not many guys his age do.

[Falls City Beer]

I am not suggesting that he moves well. However, the numbers do suggest that he may do other things well that help to offset his lack of range.

I'm not sure "good hands" offsets "lack of range" at all. One seems to be prerequisite to the other. If you can't get to it, what you conceivably "do" with it doesn't matter a bit.

[Falls City Beer]

Actually the rotation looks pretty good and not real old. Zito (who will be ok in that park), Cain (the real ace), Morris, Lowry, Hennessey, Sanchez.

The old guys on offense may be enough with that. If Roberts, Vizquel and Winn can get on base in Front of Bonds that team could surprise. The bottom half of the line-up with Durham, Aurilia/Klesko/Sweeney, Molina and Feliz is pretty good for a bottom part of the order. Much better than what the Reds could run out there.

Yeah, I'd say the Giants are now pretty much set.

[flyer85]

all that tells me is that Lopez & Clayton stink at SS too. Rich does do a good job around the bag and does have a good hands, no argument there, he just doesn't have the range to pick it at SS anymore. Not many guys his age do.The real issue I have with the Reds addressing the SS with Gonzo is that the Reds had a flyball starting staff in 06 and will again in 07. So far and away the biggest defensive issue to address on this team is CF, and as far as I can tell it has not been addressed.

[flyer85]

I'm not sure "good hands" offsets "lack of range" at all. One seems to be prerequisite to the other. If you can't get to it, what you conceivably "do" with it doesn't matter a bit.The numbers RA excelled at were starting and turning DPs. Which really have nothing to do with range(how many of those balls ever get turned into DPs) and little to with hands. Starting and turning DPs is about getting rid of the ball quickly and making strong, accurate throws.

[jojo]

Oh, uh, OK. Check Flyer85's post.

This is just some quick fat to chew on.... based upon PMR, at third base in 2006, Aurilia made 11 fewer outs than an average third baseman would've been expected to convert given the opportunities. When the PMR is converted to runs and adjusted for 350 opportunities, PMR to runs suggests Aurilia was the worst 3b in the majors last year (scored a robust -28.... ouch richie).

This really suggests a dramatic issue with range given his respectable error rate. He didn't get enough opportunities to show up with the shortstops using PMR but I'd suggest that if he had issues at third, then he probably didn't play a serviceable shortstop either.

FCB is right. Error rate is a lousy metric for a tree. If it's hit right at Aurilia, he'll catch it and probably soft toss a very accurate throw. It's hard to make on error on a ball you don't touch though.... and that's the rub with Aurilia's glove...

[Falls City Beer]

The numbers RA excelled at were starting and turning DPs. Which really have nothing to do with range(how many of those balls ever get turned into DPs) and little to with hands. Starting and turning DPs is about getting rid of the ball quickly and making strong, accurate throws.

That's a very, very limited skill set, and heavily contingent one at that (balls have to be hit "right-at-'em"). Over the course of a season, range, hands, and accuracy are what matter most.

[flyer85]

The Reds were 28th in defense in the majors according to the THT annual. They were below average everywhere.

With a flyball staff the real trouble spot is CF, not SS. If I am the GM amd am not going to fix the defense then I had better have pitchers that miss bats.

BTW, Milton had a FIP .2 higher than his actual ERA. Suggests that he was lucky for his ERA to not have been higher.

[flyer85]

That's a very, very limited skill set, and heavily contingent one at that (balls have to be hit "right-at-'em"). Over the course of a season, range, hands, and accuracy are what matter most.having watched Gonzo over the years I have not been impressed by his having superior range. Will he be an upgrade, almost certainly but not enough of one to make a difference to a flyball pitching staff.

The top jobs of the offseason for the Reds were to find a CF and then come up with pitchers who do a better job of missing bats(thus making the lack of quality defense less important).

BA did a writeup on how much of the success of Suppan was based on the Cards superior infield defense and with the Brewers below average to average infield defense the Brew Crew are not going to be getting the pitcher they think they are getting.

[mth123]

This is just some quick fat to chew on.... based upon PMR, at third base in 2006, Aurilia made 11 fewer outs than an average third baseman would've been expected to convert given the opportunities. When the PMR is converted to runs and adjusted for 350 opportunities, PMR to runs suggests Aurilia was the worst 3b in the majors last year (scored a robust -28.... ouch richie).

This really suggests a dramatic issue with range given his respectable error rate. He didn't get enough opportunities to show up with the shortstops using PMR but I'd suggest that if he had issues at third, then he probably didn't play a serviceable shortstop either.

FCB is right. Error rate is a lousy metric for a tree. If it's hit right at Aurilia, he'll catch it and probably soft toss a very accurate throw. It's hard to make on error on a ball you don't touch though.... and that's the rub with Aurilia's glove...

Except a lot of outs were made on Flyballs and when Harang was on the mound K's. Not sure if the raw number of outs says much in this case. I agree that my eyes tell me he hasn't got much range.

Not really sure how this all started, but there is little doubt that Phillips and Gonzalez up the middle is a huge improvement over any combination from 2006.

It may be the only area of the team that has improved.

[Falls City Beer]

having watched Gonzo over the years I have not been impressed by his having superior range. Will he be an upgrade, almost certainly but not enough of one to make a difference to a flyball pitching staff.

That's my take as well.


The top jobs of the offseason for the Reds were to find a CF and then come up with pitchers who do a better job of missing bats(thus making the lack of quality defense less important).


Yep.


BA did a writeup on how much of the success of Suppan was based on the Cards superior infield defense and with the Brewers below average to average infield defense the Brew Crew are not going to be getting the pitcher they think they are getting.

I actually don't think the Cards' middle infield is all that good (Miles/Eckstein/Belliard) and think the Brewers' MI (Hall/Hardy) is just as good. Where the Cards have the advantage over the Brewers is in CF, catcher, 3rd, and 1st.

[jojo]

Except a lot of outs were made on Flyballs and when Harang was on the mound K's. Not sure if the raw number of outs says much in this case. I agree that my eyes tell me he hasn't got much range.


I should have said converted 11 fewer opportunities than an average third baseman would've converted given similarly hit balls....

That's basically 11 more hits that shouldn't have been hits many of which probably went for extra bases and all of which went in the direction of Dunn.... :cool:

[flyer85]

I actually don't think the Cards' middle infield is all that good (Miles/Eckstein/Belliard) and think the Brewers' MI (Hall/Hardy) is just as good. Where the Cards have the advantage over the Brewers is in CF, catcher, 3rd, and 1st.the writeup showed the Cards were average up the middle but outstanding at both corners. The Brewers have an upgrade when Hardy plays SS but are bad on the right side(especially Weeks) of the infield.

[Matt700wlw]

I'm not big on giving ANY pitcher a 7 year deal.....or most players for that matter. Not in this sport. Not with these gauranteed contracts.

[remdog]

I would generally agree with Matt on that. The problem is that every team has to say 'no' to that length of term. It only takes one team to say 'yes' to make that demand work for the player/agent.

Rem

[fearofpopvol1]

Barry won't even have to move out of his house now...

[Highlifeman21]

Nonsense. 1 error in 26 games at SS. Work it out over a season--pretty darn good. Rich was railed on by the board and became the most consistent producer on the team, and the only position player who seemed to have the mettle of a contender down the stretch. Now the criticisms are of his range. The final and only rap you can have on his game. And he's not a "statue". He's not Alex Gonzalez but he is a very servicable SS. Oh but no! Cries of worry and concern! 1 error in 26 games at SS. C'mon. I'll take that over the utterly demoralizing, wind-taking and numerous errors of FeLo. And Rich out-performed him with the bat too! I defy any metrician who trolled Aurilia at the start of last season to say, "My analysis of him was wrong." Too much ego here.


Lack of errors aren't the measure of a good defender. Range and consistency should be the way to assign value to a good defender. Aurilia has horrible range, therefore he's going to let a whole bunch of balls get by him that someone with normal range would pick up. There's no getting around that. RA has zero range, he is a statue. Errors stem from throwing the ball away and or not fielding the ball cleanly. You aren't assigned an error for not getting to a ball. RA may not rack up the errors, but he's certainly not getting to all the balls he should.

Look at EE. The kid has what I would deem above average range, but his throwing arm is a little erratic, therefore he racked up his fair share of errors, but I would easily say EE is a better defender than RA. He gets to balls RA never could in his wildest dreams.

RA most likely never had any intentions of returning to the Reds for 2007, so it made sense that he performed above his projected stats b/c he was in a contract year. RA was at best our 2nd best offensive producer in 2006.

[Dracodave]

I have to say, now is the perfect time to start sending Denorfia and a prospect to San Fran for either Corriea, Sanchez, or Hennesy.

[RedsManRick]

Nonsense. 1 error in 26 games at SS. Work it out over a season--pretty darn good. Rich was railed on by the board and became the most consistent producer on the team, and the only position player who seemed to have the mettle of a contender down the stretch. Now the criticisms are of his range. The final and only rap you can have on his game. And he's not a "statue". He's not Alex Gonzalez but he is a very servicable SS. Oh but no! Cries of worry and concern! 1 error in 26 games at SS. C'mon. I'll take that over the utterly demoralizing, wind-taking and numerous errors of FeLo. And Rich out-performed him with the bat too! I defy any metrician who trolled Aurilia at the start of last season to say, "My analysis of him was wrong." Too much ego here.

Hard to make errors on balls you can't get to. When the ball rolls past him 3 feet out of reach, it might not leave the same feeling in your stomach as if he had gotten the ball and then thrown it away, but the batter is on base all the same...

[Wheelhouse]

I am not suggesting that he moves well. However, the numbers do suggest that he may do other things well that help to offset his lack of range.

I totally agree. That's my point about Aurilia.

[remdog]

Where did the Barry Zito thread go? :dunno:

Rem

[Wheelhouse]

Hard to make errors on balls you can't get to. When the ball rolls past him 3 feet out of reach, it might not leave the same feeling in your stomach as if he had gotten the ball and then thrown it away, but the batter is on base all the same...

You're making the assumption Aurilia had the worst range in the history of the game. As far as range he is below average. In all other aspects of playing the position, surehandedness, accuracy of throws, strength of arm, positioning, turning the DPs, he is above average. I would be willing to bet that with Aurilia's knowledge of the league and abilitiy to position himself, he got to a lot of balls a lesser experienced SS with better range would have missed. Mix in the stick, and you have yourself a very servicable SS.

[PuffyPig]

Nonsense. 1 error in 26 games at SS. Work it out over a season--pretty darn good.

Statues seldom make errors. They only field balls hit right to them. Equating fielding prowess with fielding percentage is like equating BA with offensive production. It tells part of the story, but leaves most hidden.

[remdog]

Barry? You in here?

Rem

[Dracodave]

Barry? You in here?

Rem

Paging Mr.Zito..Paging Mr Zito...

Oh where oh where can that Barry be?

[remdog]

Just for a change of pace, I posted this on ORG. Anyone interestd?

In the 'Don't Like....' thread I posted this recap of what I would have liked to seen Krivsky do: 'So, of the above list, I would keep (excluding Loshe since I'm not sure of his situation) Gonzalez, Hamilton, Weathers and LaRue. I would have tried to add Ben Broussard and Jason Werth. Between the additions and subtractions (excluding Loshe) I'd save about $5.75M. Add the $4M set aside for Arullia and that's almost $10M. Adding 3-4 minor league additions like Harris, Hopper, etc take out $1-$1.5M and you've got about $8.5-$9M plus the budgeted increased payroll that Castellini promised. Add $6M if Loshe goes away.'

Now, if the Reds had done something close to that (and dumped Loshe) they would have had about $15M to throw at Zito. At that point it's up to Castellini to decide to deliver on his promised effort to win. Honestly, for a few $Ms more, you could be looking at a starting rotation of Harang, Zito and Arroyo with Milton and whoever answers the roll call as #'s 4 & 5. In this crappy division I think that would be a good chance to get you to the playoffs. After that, who knows? Look at last years' Cards.

That would show me some committment to winning. Not all the reclaimation projects the Reds are now committed to. If you get to the playoffs this year maybe you have higher attendance and you build off of that. If you don't you have the option of moving up to 3 good arms before '08.

Personally, I'm not sold on Arroyo matching last year so, if you believe in him, add a running mate. If you aren't going to add that 3rd guy, trade Arroyo now and get something for him before he tarnishes.

Rem

[jojo]

strength of arm

nope...he has a puss arm to the exponential power....



positioning,

yep...he ignores the bench coach in favor of his natural positioning instincts thereby being right where every ball is hit (except for the ones that are hit where he isnt)


he got to a lot of balls a lesser experienced SS with better range would have missed.

Alright now.....

To be fair to the slobs like Bettancourt and Everett, defensive IQ is 90% of playing defense.... thats why the peak year for the average major leaguer from a defensive point of view is 24 because after that, most simply lose the ability to understand defense. Ya, that makes sense....

[Heath]

With the RA bashing, the only thing to really de-rail this thread is to get an Adam Dunn trade rumor started.

[Krusty]

I guarantee that the Giants will regret making this deal two years from now.

[Gallen5862]

The Reds now get the supplemental 1st round pick and the Giants 3rd round pick unless they sign someone ranked above Aurilla. In that case it becomes a 4th round pick.

[cincinnati chili]

Then they can force him to the DL and pull a "Bagwell".:laugh:


You're assuming they found someone to insure this contract. My recollection is that ASU and some of the big insurers are now refusing to insure pitching contracts that are this long.

Maybe I'm wrong.

[Falls City Beer]

I imagine Zito will have to decide which uniform he'll wear into the Hall of Fame: Oakland or San Fran.

[mth123]

I imagine Zito will have to decide which uniform he'll wear into the Hall of Fame: Oakland or San Fran.

Is he going to the inductions?:)

[vaticanplum]

I imagine Zito will have to decide which uniform he'll wear into the Hall of Fame: Oakland or San Fran.

Yeah, me too. It makes my heart hurt a little bit.

a lot of people have been quite down on Zito this offseason. I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't foresee him going downhill anytime soon. I fully expect him to plow through at least four more seasons and continue to pitch well, if not as frequently, after that. It's early, but I also expect him to contend for the HOF.

But I also expect that he may never win a WS ring.

[Dracodave]

Is he going to the inductions?:)

No, he's getting voted in for youngest free-agent signed by the Giants.

[Falls City Beer]

Is he going to the inductions?:)

Pitching in San Fran's park will help him rack up tons of wins. Couple the great park and Sabean's insane ability to assemble a bullpen, and I see tons of wins for Barry over the next 7 seasons.

[Falls City Beer]

But I also expect that he may never win a WS ring.

Sure, it's early yet, but the Giants' rotation looks awfully, awfully good. I wouldn't count out a pennant run for San Fran.

[mth123]

Pitching in San Fran's park will help him rack up tons of wins. Couple the great park and Sabean's insane ability to assemble a bullpen, and I see tons of wins for Barry over the next 7 seasons.

I actually agree with that. But he's not a HOF pitcher IMO.

[Falls City Beer]

I actually agree with that. But he's not a HOF pitcher IMO.

If he wins 225-250 games and a WS, our opinion won't matter--he'll be a near-lock.

[flyer85]

If Blyleven can't get in I'm not sure how you do it without winning 300.

[Chip R]

Yeah, me too. It makes my heart hurt a little bit.

a lot of people have been quite down on Zito this offseason. I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't foresee him going downhill anytime soon. I fully expect him to plow through at least four more seasons and continue to pitch well, if not as frequently, after that. It's early, but I also expect him to contend for the HOF.

But I also expect that he may never win a WS ring.


Look at it this way, you might actually get to see him pitch in person once this year.

[Tyler Durden]

Is anyone watching the (whatever) bowl on now? Texas A&M vs. Cal. I have it on in the background, and I heard Kirk Herbstreit mention the Reds and how someone needs to tell them that the offseason started and they can spend money to get players. I think they were talking about Zito.

I guess he's not very enthused about Jeff Conine. But why does he think anyone cares about his analysis about baseball?

[Jpup]

Is anyone watching the (whatever) bowl on now? Texas A&M vs. Cal. I have it on in the background, and I heard Kirk Herbstreit mention the Reds and how someone needs to tell them that the offseason started and they can spend money to get players. I think they were talking about Zito.

I guess he's not very enthused about Jeff Conine. But why does he think anyone cares about his analysis about baseball?

because there are a lot of people out there that respect his opinion. I don't really care what he thinks, but the casual fan probably agrees with him. Many people believe if they are on TV that they must know what they are talking about.

His opinion is just as meaningful as yours or mine.

[RedFanAlways1966]

Kirk Herbsteit is probably a REDS fan from birth... being from Centerville, OH (10 or so miles south of Dayton for those who don't know). Probably just speaking from his heart b/c he wants the REDS to sign big names. There are many REDS fans here who say the same thing. You can take the boy out of the REDS area (and send him to announce an NCAA bowl game), but you cannot take the REDS out of the boy. Most watching the game are not REDS fans and as you said could probably care less about our (and Kirk's) beloved REDS.

[Tyler Durden]

Kirk Herbsteit is probably a REDS fan from birth... being from Centerville, OH (10 or so miles south of Dayton for those who don't know). Probably just speaking from his heart b/c he wants the REDS to sign big names. There are many REDS fans here who say the same thing. You can take the boy out of the REDS area (and send him to announce an NCAA bowl game), but you cannot take the REDS out of the boy. Most watching the game are not REDS fans and as you said could probably care less about our (and Kirk's) beloved REDS.

Oh, I know he's from Centerville and is most likely a Reds fan, I just wasn't really sure how that subject even came up. I guess they were talking about what would be covered at half-time.

[Falls City Beer]

If Blyleven can't get in I'm not sure how you do it without winning 300.

Blyleven will get in.

[LoganBuck]

Herbie is a big Reds fan. When he is in Columbus during the spring and summer, he does the afternoon radio show on 1460 am. He loves the Reds and has Marty on regularly. He gets really excited about the same things we do. He would fit right in around here.

[Reds1]

I just don't get it. 18 million a year. Didn't this guy suck up the place the 1st half last year! I might be getting my years wrong, but 18 million and taking a chance on 7 years. Wow! Something needs to change.

[Jpup]

I just don't get it. 18 million a year. Didn't this guy suck up the place the 1st half last year! I might be getting my years wrong, but 18 million and taking a chance on 7 years. Wow! Something needs to change.

pitching all those games against the NL West will help. He has never missed a start and he also gets the Giants in the media for something besides Barry Bonds. The Giants have the money and a great chance to win this year. I agree that the deal was way too long, but the Giants won't be hurt by it like a team such as the Reds.

[edabbs44]

I just don't get it. 18 million a year. Didn't this guy suck up the place the 1st half last year! I might be getting my years wrong, but 18 million and taking a chance on 7 years. Wow! Something needs to change.

Yeah...the Cincy FO's philosophy. They will never, and I mean NEVER, compete if they continue in the direction they are headed.

[DoogMinAmo]

Is it me, or have most NL teams made what seem to be horrific decisions this offseason?

Parity? :confused:

Looking at the length and dollar signs assigned to THE premium pitcher of the market, as well as everything under him, I fully understand why many teams have decided to stay put. I can not hate on Wayne for not forking over 18 million a year to Zito for seven years when we are just now getting to the tail end of Junior's contract. I would have MAYBE gone 19 for 4 years, but that contract length is plain ridiculous.

Free agency was/is not the answer this year, whether it happens through scrap heap finds (Ross & Phillips) or via trade, I will wait and see. Wayne managed to pull off 46 transactions in his first year (some good some bad), the team we have now is not the team we will have in April.

[bucksfan2]

The money for Zito is absurd. He is a good pitcher but he isn't a dominant pitcher. Are there any huge contracts given to FA that have actually improved the club both in the now and future? Look at the ARod contract and what it did to him and the rangers. This deal definatly makes the giants better. If their offense is there a rotation of Cain, Morris, and Zito is a pretty good 1,2,3 punch. But if you look at the makeup of the Giants their window to win is right now and in a few years Zito is likely to be pitching on a sub .500 team.

[Chip R]

One thing that no one has mentioned is that the premier free agent pitcher did not go to a large revenue/large market team like NY or CHI or BOS or even LA or LAAA. Instead he went to a team who is still paying on its stadium who shares a market with another team.

So if the Giants can get a guy like Zito, why can't the Reds be players?

[Highlifeman21]

Pitching in San Fran's park will help him rack up tons of wins. Couple the great park and Sabean's insane ability to assemble a bullpen, and I see tons of wins for Barry over the next 7 seasons.

If he plays that entire 7 year contract for the Giants, and given they stay in Pac Bell SBC AT&T Sprint Verizon Park, I would almost expect 110 wins out of him in that time span.

Anyone want the under?

[Highlifeman21]

Herbie is a big Reds fan. When he is in Columbus during the spring and summer, he does the afternoon radio show on 1460 am. He loves the Reds and has Marty on regularly. He gets really excited about the same things we do. He would fit right in around here.


He hates Jerry Narron too, and knows that most Reds fans undervalue Adam Dunn?

I knew there was something I liked about Herbstreit, aside from the fact he's a pretty good CFB analyst and he has a smoking hot wife.

The whole OSU Alum thing is the only knock on him.

[Reds Nd2]

Why is that? I guess I missed the rule on this. Is it bc now the Giants give that pick to the A's?
Yes. The Reds still have their 37th pick in the supplemental round, but the Athletics now get the Giants second round pick (72nd overall) and the Reds get the Giants third round pick (102nd overall). As of December 29, 2006, I believe there are a couple more compensation free agents left to sign, so this might change a bit.

Edited to add: There are six more remaining compensation free agents.


Team Player Compensation Type
Bos: Keith Foulke (B).
Cin: Scott Schoeneweis (B).
NYY: Ron Villone (B).
StL: Mark Mulder (B).
SD: Chan Ho Park (B).
SD: David Wells (B)



You think these horror stories are made up.
I didn't think ostensible grown-ups pranced around the house pretending to be in Little House on the Prairie. Of course, I don't even now what "ostensible" means. :laugh:

[jojo]

If he plays that entire 7 year contract for the Giants, and given they stay in Pac Bell SBC AT&T Sprint Verizon Park, I would almost expect 110 wins out of him in that time span.

Anyone want the under?

I'll take the under....

[vaticanplum]

Of course, I don't even now what "ostensible" means. :laugh:

That's ok, I'm not entirely sure I use it correctly. It means theoretical, sort of.

[Rojo]

One thing that no one has mentioned is that the premier free agent pitcher did not go to a large revenue/large market team like NY or CHI or BOS or even LA or LAAA. Instead he went to a team who is still paying on its stadium who shares a market with another team.

So if the Giants can get a guy like Zito, why can't the Reds be players?


SF is closer to the big market teams than it is to Cincy.

[Chip R]

SF is closer to the big market teams than it is to Cincy.


Like I said, they share a market with Oakland and until they got their stadium built, were perennial candidates to move anywhere. Not to mention that they are still probably paying off that stadium and will for years to come. What's going to happen when Bonds retires and people stop going out there? All I'm saying is that every season people say Boros' main client is going to NY or LA or BOS and this time he went to SF.

[Rojo]

Like I said, they share a market with Oakland and until they got their stadium built, were perennial candidates to move anywhere.

They built a beautiful DOWNTOWN park in the fourth largest metro area in the country. Oakland's stuck with an Al Davis-mangled parking garage. Inspired leadership and good fortune make a much bigger revenue stream.