Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

[tomd63]

As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.

Pyth. WP W L
.475 77 85


Name BA OBP SLG AB RC
Dunn,Adam .259 .382 .536 556 114
Phillips,Brandon .266 .320 .405 511 66
Hatteberg,Scott .270 .360 .398 460 66
Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489 454 78
Gonzalez,Alex .245 .293 .390 449 51
Freel,Ryan .265 .361 .376 441 60
Griffey Jr. ,Ken .270 .342 .506 423 73
Denorfia,Chris .287 .353 .440 418 65
Conine,Jeff .266 .333 .394 406 53
Castro,Juan .240 .277 .351 262 25
Moeller,Chad .206 .266 .314 223 19
Ross,Dave .234 .326 .482 197 31
Valentin,Javier .256 .326 .446 195 28
Hamilton,Josh .261 .305 .412 165 21
Keppinger,Jeff .286 .338 .360 50 6
Pitchers .142 .164 .204 309 10
Totals .254 .330 .417 5519 759


Name ERA G GS INN R
Arroyo,Bronson 3.86 34 32 212 100
Harang,Aaron 4.03 33 33 210 103
Milton,Eric 4.96 31 31 178 107
Lohse,Kyle 4.96 35 27 167 101
Santos,Victor 5.08 26 20 124 77
Belisle,Matt 4.95 42 13 109 66
Majewski,Gary 4.21 69 1 77 39
Coffey,Todd 4.04 70 0 69 34
Weathers,David 5.35 66 0 69 45
Stanton,Mike 3.71 68 0 68 30
Shackelford,Brian 4.81 62 0 58 34
Cormier,Rheal 4.89 68 0 57 34
Bray,Bill 4.79 42 0 47 27
Totals 4.53 646 157 1445 797

The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.

[fewfirstchoice]

90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
Harang-18-9 3.27 era
Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
Milton-14-12 4.79 era
Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
12-10 4.89 era
Dunn 270 48 115
Griffey 280 33 103
EE 310 28 95
BP 290 18 62
A Gonzalez 255 21 75
Hatte 287 13 61
Ross 245 17 55
Add someone else to the OF and were set.
A man can dream cant he,lol.

[REDJAKE]

The really big thing that has to happen if the Reds hope to improve this year is for Harang & Arroyo to repeat there good seasons and that's not a given only the stars have one good year after another and i think Harang is there but if Arroyo slumps then we're in big trouble.If both repeat there good years we still need another starter to step up and win 15 and Conine has to produce like Aurilia did.GO CINCY!!!!

[Superdude]

How much longer do we have Arroyo and Harang locked up? With the market the way it is, projections like this make dealing Arroyo for prospects sound like a nice idea.

[jmac]

90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
Harang-18-9 3.27 era
Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
Milton-14-12 4.79 era
Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
12-10 4.89 era
Dunn 270 48 115
Griffey 280 33 103
EE 310 28 95
BP 290 18 62
A Gonzalez 255 21 75
Hatte 287 13 61
Ross 245 17 55
Add someone else to the OF and were set.
A man can dream cant he,lol.

I can easily see EE doing those #'s and Dunn doing the power aspect.

[Handofdeath]

90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
Harang-18-9 3.27 era
Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
Milton-14-12 4.79 era
Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
12-10 4.89 era
Dunn 270 48 115
Griffey 280 33 103
EE 310 28 95
BP 290 18 62
A Gonzalez 255 21 75
Hatte 287 13 61
Ross 245 17 55
Add someone else to the OF and were set.
A man can dream cant he,lol.

I actually don't think that's too unrealistic. Except for Jr having 103 RBI's. He would have to average 1 RBI for every game played and even in his prime...:devil:

[fewfirstchoice]

If JR can stay healthy all season long he still has the talent to be a outstanding BB player.HE has proofed this over the last 2 seasons,he plasy well when healthy.
I also expect EE to put up or close to the #'s I posted.If Dunn has those power #'s his average will also raise around the 270's.But if the rest of the guys put up #'s like I hope the Reds will have a big season in 07.

[dunner13]

I think our record is going to mostly depend on how milton, lohse and bailey do. If milton and lohse can be at least average starters and bailey can have an impact then 85 wins should be within reach. And with the central being so even right now, 85 might get you in.

[Degenerate39]

I don't think you can predict wins. You never know what can happen. Who would have thought that we would have close to a 500 record this year?

[Falls City Beer]

I don't think you can predict wins. You never know what can happen. Who would have thought that we would have close to a 500 record this year?

Me. (And a bunch of other folks--check the archives).

[FREEL #6]

We Will Win Our Division This Year.we Need To Put Griffey In Right Field And Freel In Center To Cover Alot More Territory.

[Joseph]

What I find interesting looking over these ZiPS is that we do not project to have even ONE league average reliever for 2007. Couple that with only 2 league average or better starters, and it's going to be a loooooooong season.

[Danny Serafini]

Anyone else scared by the fact that it predicted more ABs for Chad Moeller than any other catcher? :help:

[Joseph]

These projections also see Adam Dunn hitting 40 HRs with 98 RBI, for what its worth.

Yes DS, very scared that Moeller has the most ABs.

[durl]

How accurate was ZIPs last year? And what did ZIPS predict for the Reds last year?

[Joseph]

2007 ZiPS Projections
-------------------------------------------------------------
Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
-------------------------------------------------------------
Saarloos 6 9 29 20 130 144 75 18 58 62 5.19

Here are Saarloos' projections for the year, and no, I have no idea if these ZiPS are effective methods.

[Joseph]

Some 2006 ZiPS


Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Dunn* lf .254 .388 .560 157 548 105 139 31 1 45 110 114 174 5 2
Griffey* cf .280 .359 .548 108 403 65 113 24 0 28 78 48 80 0 1
Encarnacion 3b .262 .327 .449 140 485 67 127 31 0 20 73 44 108 11 5
LaRue c .246 .336 .430 113 374 42 92 25 1 14 54 34 105 1 1
Freel 2b .270 .364 .366 116 415 65 112 20 4 4 33 55 65 32 11
Denorfia cf .256 .327 .389 148 512 76 131 21 4 13 57 53 110 7 6

[reds44]

As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.

Pyth. WP W L
.475 77 85


Name BA OBP SLG AB RC
Dunn,Adam .259 .382 .536 556 114
Phillips,Brandon .266 .320 .405 511 66
Hatteberg,Scott .270 .360 .398 460 66
Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489 454 78
Gonzalez,Alex .245 .293 .390 449 51
Freel,Ryan .265 .361 .376 441 60
Griffey Jr. ,Ken .270 .342 .506 423 73
Denorfia,Chris .287 .353 .440 418 65
Conine,Jeff .266 .333 .394 406 53
Castro,Juan .240 .277 .351 262 25
Moeller,Chad .206 .266 .314 223 19
Ross,Dave .234 .326 .482 197 31
Valentin,Javier .256 .326 .446 195 28
Hamilton,Josh .261 .305 .412 165 21
Keppinger,Jeff .286 .338 .360 50 6
Pitchers .142 .164 .204 309 10
Totals .254 .330 .417 5519 759


Name ERA G GS INN R
Arroyo,Bronson 3.86 34 32 212 100
Harang,Aaron 4.03 33 33 210 103
Milton,Eric 4.96 31 31 178 107
Lohse,Kyle 4.96 35 27 167 101
Santos,Victor 5.08 26 20 124 77
Belisle,Matt 4.95 42 13 109 66
Majewski,Gary 4.21 69 1 77 39
Coffey,Todd 4.04 70 0 69 34
Weathers,David 5.35 66 0 69 45
Stanton,Mike 3.71 68 0 68 30
Shackelford,Brian 4.81 62 0 58 34
Cormier,Rheal 4.89 68 0 57 34
Bray,Bill 4.79 42 0 47 27
Totals 4.53 646 157 1445 797

The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.
Does that take defense into effect at all?



Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Dunn* lf .254 .388 .560 157 548 105 139 31 1 45 110 114 174 5 2
Griffey* cf .280 .359 .548 108 403 65 113 24 0 28 78 48 80 0 1
Encarnacion 3b .262 .327 .449 140 485 67 127 31 0 20 73 44 108 11 5
LaRue c .246 .336 .430 113 374 42 92 25 1 14 54 34 105 1 1
Freel 2b .270 .364 .366 116 415 65 112 20 4 4 33 55 65 32 11
Denorfia cf .256 .327 .389 148 512 76 131 21 4 13 57 53 110 7 6
[/QUOTE]
That shows how meaningless this really is.

[RedEye]

What I find interesting looking over these ZiPS is that we do not project to have even ONE league average reliever for 2007. Couple that with only 2 league average or better starters, and it's going to be a loooooooong season.

Yep, and we traded two above league-average position players to get no league average relievers. Sorry about beating a dead horse, but it's true.

[Redleg39]

I really think the Reds will breakthrough and make the playoffs. I think Harang is good for at least 15 wins, and I'm hoping Bronson gets at least 12. I think the x-factor in the rotation will be Milton though. He looked much better towards the end of last year.

[Redhook]

I really think the Reds will breakthrough and make the playoffs. I think the x-factor in the rotation will be Milton though. He looked much better towards the end of last year.

It would probably take 20 wins from Milton for the Reds to get into the playoffs this year. Could happen. I could also win the U.S. Open at Oakmont this year. Really, I could.