MLBTradeRumors.com Brings Back Up Dunn/Penny Trade

[RedLegSuperStar]

There are a host of smaller stories floating around, so I will mention them in one post.

Trading Todd Helton seems to be a touchy subject in Denver. But I don't think that since Dan O'Dowd made this bed, he has to lie in it. Yes, the insane contract was his mistake, but if he can do something to improve the team's outlook and give them the payroll flexibility to compete for the rest of the decade, he has to do it. Baseball is a business, even if Helton is well-liked and wants to stay in Colorado. Seems that he might veto any trade though.

Didn't realize Shawn Chacon's contract can be bought out for less than a million in spring training. I think the Pirates should do this and bring in a decent starter. Maybe not Tony Armas Jr., but Jon Lieber would be cool if the Phils ate some salary. If the Bucs can get a little defense going on they could almost contend in the NL Central. They shouldn't waste 100 innings on Chacon.

Paul Lo Duca is a free agent after '07 and wants to talk contract extension. The Mets seem a little reluctant.

Would it make sense to trade Adam Dunn for Brad Penny?

How cool would it be to have the Marlins' manager on your jury? AND John Schuerholz in the jury pool for the same case?

Buster Olney reports that the Phils and Padres are kicking around an Aaron Rowand trade. San Diego would send a reliever for him.

[toledodan]

Buster Olney reports that the Phils and Padres are kicking around an Aaron Rowand trade. San Diego would send a reliever for him.


who does philly want for rowand? he would be nice in a reds uniform.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I like the idea of the deal.. but I got to think the Reds MUST request Ethier or Kemp are involved in the deal. A deal I may counter offer would be:

Dunn and Milton or Lohse to LA
Penny, Ethier, and Brazoban or Loney

[Jefferson24]

I like Penny but if you trade Dunn where is our offense going to come from? EE can't do it alone and there needs to some power in that line up especially considering the park the Reds play in.

[TOBTTReds]

I like the idea of the deal.. but I got to think the Reds MUST request Ethier or Kemp are involved in the deal. A deal I may counter offer would be:

Dunn and Milton or Lohse to LA
Penny, Ethier, and Brazoban or Loney

YES SIR!!! Don't think that would happen though.

[dougdirt]

I am not sure I would make a run for James Loney unless you planned on moving him again. Joey Votto and Loney both play first base, and in my mind Votto is the better of the two.

[reds44]

You can't trade Adam Dunn for pitching. You'll have no offense.

[Red Leader]

You can't trade Adam Dunn for pitching. You'll have no offense.

I think that if the Reds F.O., and Wayne in particular, thought they could improve by trading Adam Dunn straight up for pitching, they would have done so already. They know that our offense would suck rocks if they traded Adam Dunn and only received pitching back in return, so they don't do it, IMO. Now, if someone offered a good pitcher AND some offense in return, that might pique their interest.

[Topcat]

Penny would be a good starting point and Either would be the meat of the dish but the true desert would be Broxton ;) . Would never happen but stranger things have happened.

[FutureRedsGM]

who does philly want for rowand? he would be nice in a reds uniform.


Rowand < Freel

[edabbs44]

I am not sure I would make a run for James Loney unless you planned on moving him again. Joey Votto and Loney both play first base, and in my mind Votto is the better of the two.

Doug, what are you basing your opinion on? Loney had a pretty equal season to Votto in '06 at a higher level and being a year younger. Votto showed more power and Loney hit for a higher average. I think Votto has gotten a bit too much publicity on this site off of one season. I still think he is a good prospect, but maybe he is a bit overrated by some.

[fewfirstchoice]

About the best you will get from LA for Dunn is Penny and Either or Kemp and with that Cincy would have to throw in either a minor leaguer or a reliever also.But I would make the deal it would give Cincy something they havent had in a while.A hard throwing pitcher in there rotation.But it would also take away offense but if the Reds can somehow get Either added to the deal he can help.It would make our offense young and talented with Either,EE,Phillips,and with Bruce,Votto about ready to come up the Reds could contend this year but in 2 to 3 years they could be a very good team.I say make the trade if it can be made.

[redsmetz]

LOL - glad to see we got this week's "trade Adam Dunn" thread out of the way early. Did we miss one last week?

Dunn for Penny straight up would be a lousy trade. If we're going to trade Adam (and I think we shouldn't), we need to get a lot more than just one player, particularly losing the signficant offense AD brings to the table (K's notwithstanding).

[Degenerate39]

Dunn for Penny straight up would be a lousy trade. If we're going to trade Adam (and I think we shouldn't), we need to get a lot more than just one player, particularly losing the signficant offense AD brings to the table (K's notwithstanding).

Some people just can't understand that

[dougdirt]

Doug, what are you basing your opinion on? Loney had a pretty equal season to Votto in '06 at a higher level and being a year younger. Votto showed more power and Loney hit for a higher average. I think Votto has gotten a bit too much publicity on this site off of one season. I still think he is a good prospect, but maybe he is a bit overrated by some.

I think Votto gets a lot of crap off this site for his 2005 season when he was forced to take the first pitch of every at bat. Take a look at what he did in 2004 and what he did last season when he was allowed to be selective on his own merit. He tore apart the leagues he was in. That being said, here is why I like Votto more.
Loney is a high average guy, but his isolated discipline is just .46, where last season Votto had an isolated discipline of .89, nearly doubled that. Loney had an isolated power of .166, while Votto boasted an iso power of .228. Loney played in the PCL, where the average OPS was .758 and his was .973, the difference of .215. Votto played in the Southern League where the average OPS was .691 and his OPS was .976, a difference of .285. Votto also had the wheels and smarts to steal 24 bases in 31 attempts, while Loney stole just 9 out of 14.
Now, Votto is 8 months older than Loney and played in AA while Loney played in AAA, but with Votto I see more than just a high batting average with doubles power (which is what I see in Loney), I see a good batting average with a lot more Hr pop, a little more doubles pop and the speed to steal you quite a few more bases. Votto also knows how to take a walk much better. The only thing Loney seems to have on Votto is his ability to hit for a higher average. I will take Vottos power, speed and plate discipline with his batting average over Loneys advantage in being able to hit for a higher average.

[jojo]

Doug, what are you basing your opinion on? Loney had a pretty equal season to Votto in '06 at a higher level and being a year younger. Votto showed more power and Loney hit for a higher average. I think Votto has gotten a bit too much publicity on this site off of one season. I still think he is a good prospect, but maybe he is a bit overrated by some.

Here's my two cents (which BTW my 8 yo points out wont even buy a piece of bubblegum these days). Both are good and Pecota likes both on the major league level already. However, I think Doug's right-Votto wins out. Here's my argument....

As shown below, both players had statistically similar years last season when translated to MLE. Pecota has something to say about the two as well. Based upon Pecota projections, Votto is projected to have 103 RC versus 91 by Loney at the major league level in '07. Defensively, Votto has been getting noticeably better, clearly demonstrating a willingness to work hard at it (can anyone say Hatteberg here?). However, Loney is a stellar defender with a killer arm...basically an all around athlete. It's possible that the gap in their defensive abilities more than erase the gap in RC between the two (maybe even giving Loney an overall slight advantage). I happen to like Loney better (but I have a bias for guys who can really pick). Also, Pecota obviously projected Loney to play in LA. In Cincy, a more favorable hitting environment erases alot of the projected RC differential. In that hypothetical, Loney could easily end up being conservatively 10 runs better than Votto considering bat and glove. However, at this point, I'd argue a bird in hand is better than one that you'd have to trade something significant to get.

And by the way, there is no way that the Dodgers ever consider any permutation of:


Dunn and Milton or Lohse to LA for Penny, Ethier, and Brazoban or Loney :eek:

I guess the worst the Dodgers could do would be to just say no, but I assume Krivsky would like Colletti to actually return future calls he might make to the Dodgers FO...


Loney
'06 MLE: (AAA)
.311/.348/.439 OPS: .786

'07 Pecota proj:
.295/.351/.470 RC (550AB): 91

Votto
'06 MLE: (AA)
.268/.342/.443 OPS: .785

'07 Pecota proj:
.284/.366/.511 RC (550AB): 103

[jojo]

and the speed to steal you quite a few more bases.


I always forget he can run.....catchers turned first basemen aren't supposed to be able to steal bases....

:beerme:

[Highlifeman21]

who does philly want for rowand? he would be nice in a reds uniform.

Rowand isn't any better than anything we currently have in house. If we're looking for another OF from the Phillies (aside from Conine, of course), we should look at Shane Victorino. Victorino is pretty much a Chris Denorfia clone except he switch hits.

[Jpup]

Rowand isn't any better than anything we currently have in house. If we're looking for another OF from the Phillies (aside from Conine, of course), we should look at Shane Victorino. Victorino is pretty much a Chris Denorfia clone except he switch hits.

Delucci would have been the one I was after.

[dougdirt]

I always forget he can run.....catchers turned first basemen aren't supposed to be able to steal bases....

:beerme:

No, but catchers turned first basemen who hire personal trainers in the offseason to help with their speed are (Votto is the only known example, so it has to be true right? ;) )

[bucksfan2]

I always forget he can run.....catchers turned first basemen aren't supposed to be able to steal bases....


Tell that to Craig Biggio. Its awful hard to picture him as a catcher early in his career.

[The_jbh]

who does philly want for rowand? he would be nice in a reds uniform.

Denorfia is the exact same type of player... lets see if he can be a cheaper younger option first.

[Highlifeman21]

Delucci would have been the one I was after.

I wish we had signed Dellucci in FA rather than trade for Jeff Conine.

[anthonyb]

what about joey gathwright from Kansas city or Kevin Mench or Geoff Genkins from the Brewers

[reds44]

what about joey gathwright from Kansas city or Kevin Mench or Geoff Genkins from the Brewers
Gathright would be awesome if he could steal first.
Keep Jenkins away.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Gathright would be awesome if he could steal first.
Keep Jenkins away.

I had to read that 2 times before it clicked.. that's awesome reds44! What about Dukes from Tampa Bay?

[OnBaseMachine]

I would LOVE to have Elijah Dukes patrolling CF in Cincy.

[reds44]

I would LOVE to have Elijah Dukes patrolling CF in Cincy.
Definatley agreed with you and RedLegSuperStar. He has character issues, but with some mentoring you could corrale him. He has all the talent in the world.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'd make the trade.

Here's why. Good pitching is harder to come by than good offense. If Griffey is healthy and has a bounceback year, things may be alright offensively. Not great, but alright. However, if you've got a rotation of Harrang, Penny, Arroyo, Bailey & Sarloos? Or Loshe until Bailey is ready. That's got to be one of the better rotations in baseball. You can move Loshe to the pen if/when Bailey is ready and I think moving Milton to the pen isn't a bad idea either if he isn't dumpable.

I'd take a chance on a slumping offense with a great rotation any day of the week. If the Reds can dump Milton somehow that'll open up some room for the Reds to try to go after another bat.

[marcshoe]

The depending-on-a-bounceback-year-from-Griffey ship has sailed, I'm afraid. I sincerely wish to be proven wrong, but I don't see it.

I'd love to have another proven pitcher, but the Reds need to think about a package including Freel if they're going to do it. The team doesn't have enough power to survive losing Dunn.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally posted by Highlifeman21Rowand isn't any better than anything we currently have in house. If we're looking for another OF from the Phillies (aside from Conine, of course), we should look at Shane Victorino. Victorino is pretty much a Chris Denorfia clone except he switch hits.


I gotta say I disagree with with that 1st sentence, Rowand is an above average defender (not elite, but above avg.) and the only guys we have like that to play CF is Freel and Deno. And neither of them are going to give you the pop that Rowand can provide from the right side.

However with that said I certainly would not be opposed to picking up Victorino if Philly would A.) part with him (still a long way from FA), and B.) cost less than Rowand to acquire. I haven't studied him, statistically speaking of course. But I have liked what I have seen from him, just watching him play.