Todd Helton

[FutureRedsGM]

There is a "trade for Todd Helton" thread on ORG, but since I can't post there, here is an ESPN article about what the Rockies are looking for:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2747254

Basically they aer discussing a deal with Boston that includes Mike Lowell, Julian Tavarez and prospects Craig Hansen and Manny Declarmen.

Helton DOES have a no trade clause, but he has said taht he would waive it to go to Boston.

[flyer85]

Helton is worthless. Any trade value is based on the amount of money Colorado will eat. Having said that I wouldn't deal those 4 guys to Colorado even if the Rockies picked up his entire contract, I would part with the guys the Sox have supposedly offered(Lowell and Tavarez).

[Mario-Rijo]

The Skinny! My guess this gets done but with a lesser prospect perhaps.


WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY

Todd Helton
Rockies Red Sox? Far from a done deal
Jan 29 - Todd Helton still could end up in Boston, but trade talks have hit another snag, the Rocky Mountain News reports. The Rockies remain firm in their demand that one of the elite prospects in the Red Sox system be included if a deal is made.

Helton, who's indicated he would approve a trade to Boston, will make $16.6 million this season and has $91.1 million guaranteed over the next five years. The sides have a general understanding on the Rockies picking up $40 million of what remains of the contract, but there have been problems finalizing the details and agreeing which players Colorado will receive.

Boston has offered right-handed pitcher Julian Tavarez, who is guaranteed $3.1 million in 2007, and third baseman Mike Lowell, who is guaranteed $9 million.

In addition, the Rockies gave the Red Sox a list that includes five prime prospects -- center fielder Jacob Ellsbury, and right-handed pitchers Daniel Bard, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen and Clay Buchholz -- and said one would have to be in the deal. They would consider substituting Jon Lester, who underwent chemotherapy for a non-Hodgkin's lymphoma last year, pending medical approval. But Boston GM Theo Epstein has refused to expand his offer past Lowell and Tavarez.

[jojo]

The Skinny! My guess this gets done but with a lesser prospect perhaps.

My jaw will drop if the BoSox trade anything other than salary dumps (Lowell), spare parts and minor league fodder for Helton even with the Rockies taking on half of Helton's contract.

Actually, my jaw would drop if the BoSox agreed to just take Helton straight up for Lowell even at half of Helton's contract. Flushing $9M down the toilet on Lowell in '07 is still better than dramatically overpaying Helton for '08-'11. IMHO, it will be a real bellwether concerning just how smart (or dumb) the BoSox are.... If O'Dowd can pull this off, he would definitely be front runner for GM of the year given his off season....

[Redlegs]

Helton is a solid player who will probably own the Pesky Pole at Fenway, if the Sox pick him up.

[jojo]

Helton is a solid player who will probably own the Pesky Pole at Fenway, if the Sox pick him up.


He's projected to be a two win bat in '07 in about as extreme a hitter's park as there is.... After that he's the definition of marginal (yes, that means below average).

If he won't own the thin air in Denver, i'm skeptical he'll own anything in Fenway.

[Redlegs]

If he won't own the thin air in Denver, i'm skeptical he'll own anything in Fenway.
The debate is part of the reason why baseball's the best game on the planet. We'll see what happens.

[I(heart)Freel]

He's projected to be a two win bat in '07 in about as extreme a hitter's park as there is.... After that he's the definition of marginal (yes, that means below average).

If he won't own the thin air in Denver, i'm skeptical he'll own anything in Fenway.

It's hard to wrap my head around it too, but with the humidor plugged in, Colorado is not playing like the hitter's park I'll always think of it as.

So really not sure what a healthy Helton would do - better or worse - in Boston.

[Jpup]

He's projected to be a two win bat in '07 in about as extreme a hitter's park as there is.... After that he's the definition of marginal (yes, that means below average).

If he won't own the thin air in Denver, i'm skeptical he'll own anything in Fenway.

forget about projections and look at how good Todd Helton has been for a long time. he fell off some last year, but he's still very good.

[Jpup]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2747254

dead deal.

[Falls City Beer]

If he won't own the thin air in Denver, i'm skeptical he'll own anything in Fenway.


Except that minuscule poke to right field that Big Papi exploits constantly.

Helton would clobber in Fenway, and Epstein knows this.

[jojo]

Except that minuscule poke to right field that Big Papi exploits constantly.

Helton would clobber in Fenway, and Epstein knows this.


The latest rumor suggests the Rockies were willing to leave the Bosox on the hook for only $37M while also taking Lowell's $9M off of Epstein's hands as well... yet the BoSox balked at including a youngster....it sees Epstein also knows the likely hood of Helton not clobbering Fenway is significant enough to make committing to him a risky thing...

[Falls City Beer]

The latest rumor suggests the Rockies were willing to leave the Bosox on the hook for only $37M while also taking Lowell's $9M off of Epstein's hands as well... yet the BoSox balked at including a youngster....it sees Epstein also knows the likely hood of Helton not clobbering Fenway is significant enough to make committing to him a risky thing...

I didn't say Epstein wouldn't try to haggle....

But the degree of interest shown by the Sox shows they understand his worth is still quite high, and not likely simply a product of pre-humidor Coors.

[jojo]

I didn't say Epstein wouldn't try to haggle....

But the degree of interest shown by the Sox shows they understand his worth is still quite high, and not likely simply a product of pre-humidor Coors.

Just a point of clarification. I wasn't implying his past was just a Coors effect. My issue is with his future which even at Coors looks like it has "under perform his contract" written all over it.... and that's the point. His projected value is dramatically different from his past value but he'll be paid like he's still in '05 until 2011..... That in and of itself dramatically mitigates his value even if he wasn't projected to be below average.

[Falls City Beer]

Just a point of clarification. I wasn't implying his past was just a Coors effect. My issue is with his future which even at Coors looks like it has "under perform his contract" written all over it.... and that's the point. His projected value is dramatically different from his past value but he'll be paid like he's still in '05 until 2011..... That in and of itself dramatically mitigates his value even if he wasn't projected to be below average.

Thus the haggling for more cash from Colorado. Helton at $10 million per is a bargain and will be a bargain for 3-4 more years.

The Sox would be pretty nuts not to make that deal if they are able to swing it without giving up their share of talent. Even if it means dealing with an albatross in the 5th year of the contract. That's a manageable albatross.

[jojo]

Helton at $10 million per is a bargain and will be a bargain for 3-4 more years.

You base this assertion upon what?

[Falls City Beer]

You base this assertion upon what?

The current and future market for guys who OPS .900 +. And more importantly, for guys who OBP .400 +, a skill that should continue into the next decade provided Helton doesn't suffer from some degenerative condition. The number of those players is minuscule. They are worth $10 million.

[jojo]

The current and future market for guys who OPS .900 +.

The current market doesn't predict future player performance.... in fact it can't even predict future player salary.


And more importantly, for guys who OBP .400 +, a skill that should continue into the next decade provided Helton doesn't suffer from some degenerative condition. The number of those players is minuscule. They are worth $10 million.

I agree someone who could do that would be a value. I'm asking upon what you base the assertion Helton will be one of those guys..... I'm not being snarky....I'm just curious about your rationale for spending $90M over the next 5 years....

[Falls City Beer]

I agree someone who could do that would be a value. I'm asking upon what you base the assertion Helton will be one of those guys.....

Why not?

He's spent his entire career doing it?! And ages 33-38 aren't necessarily the end anymore. Guys who know how to get on base typically continue to do so provided they don't get hurt.

[Falls City Beer]

I agree someone who could do that would be a value. I'm asking upon what you base the assertion Helton will be one of those guys..... I'm not being snarky....I'm just curious about your rationale for spending $90M over the next 5 years....

You're changing the terms.

I said, Helton for 10 million a year for 5 years is what's a fair deal. Not $90 million over 5. I'm talking about the Sox' ability to get the Rox to pay a good chunk of his contract.

[jojo]

You're changing the terms.

I said, Helton for 10 million a year for 5 years is what's a fair deal. Not $90 million over 5. I'm talking about the Sox' ability to get the Rox to pay a good chunk of his contract.

Sorry 'bout that, I was editing as you were typing apparently.

Just saying, "He's done it before so he'll probably do it again (and for several more years)", isn't that compelling for me... especially since $50M over 5 years is still probably about 15% of the reds payroll over that period. If projections systems were more positive about his future, I'd be less of a turd about him. But he's got to be a 14+ win bat over that period to justify the salary. When gold standard projection systems like Pecota suggest he'll struggle to be a 7 win bat over that period, his defense is already below average and there are lingering injury concerns surrounding his back, I think there is cause for pause. That coupled with the fact that his production has dramatically tailed off the last three years in a row, I'm sorry, Todd, you're not thru to Hollywood...

[Falls City Beer]

Sorry 'bout that, I was editing as you were typing apparently.

He's done it before so he'll probably do it again (and for several more years) isn't that compelling for me... especially since $50M over 5 years is still probably about 15% of the reds payroll over that period. If projections systems were more positive about his future, I'd be less of a turd about him. But he's got to be a 14+ win bat over that period to justify the salary. When gold standard projection systems like Pecota suggest he'll struggle to be a 7 win bat over that period, his defense is already below average and there are lingering injury concerns surrounding his back, I think there is cause for pause. That coupled with the fact that his production has dramatically tailed off the last three years in a row, I'm sorry, Todd, you're not thru to Hollywood...

Injury's a legitimate concern, but the rest of your case is a bit flat. It presupposes a bunch of stuff I don't (provided he's healthy).

[jojo]

Injury's a legitimate concern, but the rest of your case is a bit flat. It presupposes a bunch of stuff I don't (provided he's healthy).

Right, but.... I'm a doubting Thomas..... I need to poke the projections when betting on the future....