10 Reasons Why the Reds Won't Win the NL Central

[Joseph]

In response to our beloved [and insane] Krusty's post, here are 10 reasons the Reds won't contend for the NL Central crown this season.

10. Even with better defense on the infield this season, the failure to move Griffey from CF and give Denorfia enough playing time will handicap the team, hurting the already weak pitching.

9. We will not have one league average or better reliever outside Todd Coffey this season.

8. Harang will continue to improve, but Arroyo will regress slightly. The Rest of the rotation will combine for 22 wins.

7. Phillips will also regress to .260, 9, 56 with 16 SBs.

6. Edwin will improve defensively, but struggle when Narron refuses to allow him enough playing time. Freel will play almost 1/3 of the games at third this season.

5. Davis Ross shows he is a .220 hitter. 11 HRs and 39 RBI accompany the low average and below average defense. Javy Valentin will play nearly half the games at catcher.

4. Scott Hatteberg has an off year after an 'on' year last year, and is exposed with Narron platooning him less.

3. Jeff Conine will have as many starts in RF as Chris Denorfia.

2. Brook Jacoby fails to recapture the magic in Adam Dunns bat from his meteoric rookie season rise, leaving the LF as confused and obstinate as ever. He will produce 42 HRs and 109 RBI, but his average will hover around 240 and again he will break the strike out record.

1. Junior fails to complete the season yet again [he hangs on til July while the season is on the brink], and Wayne Krivsky Kreme will not act to fill the gaps in time to buoy the rest of the team with a new 'leader'.

[TheWalls]

The threat of rebuilding during the second half of this year is very real. If we flop early, we'll see Bailey, Votto and several others not on the Opening Day rostering being seriously evaluated for the second half of the season. Useful parts (Conine, Stanton, Weathers, Freel, even Dunn) could be shipped out in the name of retooling.

[WVRedsFan]

The threat of rebuilding during the second half of this year is very real. If we flop early, we'll see Bailey, Votto and several others not on the Opening Day rostering being seriously evaluated for the second half of the season. Useful parts (Conine, Stanton, Weathers, Freel, even Dunn) could be shipped out in the name of retooling.

Just curious...

Why do you consider Conine and Stanton "useful parts"? I expect nothing from them. Both are either 40 or right at 40 and I remember 40. Unless your name is Roger Clemmons, you tend to regress from your norm.

[Cyclone792]

Might as well join in on the fun why the Reds won't win the Central in 2007...

1) Ken Griffey, Jr. will be playing center field in 2007, and yes, he will once again be the worst defensive center fielder in the big leagues.

2) The Reds collective first base unit - Hatteberg, Conine, and whoever else - will put up an OPS at least 50 points below the league average MLB first baseman OPS.

3) Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez will put up a combined on-base percentage under .310.

4) Edwin Encarnacion will miss several games due to phantom day-to-day injuries. Each phantom injury will coincidentally be diagnosed after games in which he commits a throwing error.

5) David Ross will put up a line similar to his career average output, circa .230/.310./460.

6) Juan Castro will be on the active roster and will receive at least 150 plate appearances.

7) Narron's abuse of the team's mound horses will finally blow up in the Reds' faces. At least one member of the Harang/Arroyo/Coffey trio will deal with serious bouts of ineffectiveness and eventually find themselves on the DL.

8) One of two things happens with Eric Milton's spot in the rotation. Either he receives at least 30 starts and gets Miltoned once again - we'll call a 1.75 HR/9 right now - or he'll spend roughly 50 percent of the season on the DL, which means the Reds will be forced to fill his rotation spot with the new version of the Joe Mays/Chris Michalak clone. Both scenarios are almost as ugly as Roseanne singing the National Anthem while wearing a bikini.

9) The quartet of Mike Stanton, David Weathers, Rheal Cormier, and Gary Majewski will all post a collective BABIP of at least .310. Due to their inability to miss bats, their combined production will leave the bullpen shredded with ineffectiveness.

10) The only thing consistent about Jerry Narron's management of the team's resources will be mismanagement.

And I'll do a bonus one to account for activity not in the Reds' control ...

Bonus: Albert Pujols will put up one of the five greatest single seasons ever by a first baseman in the history of the game.

[edabbs44]

3) Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez will put up a combined on-base percentage under .310.

That's harsh...I think they will at least produce an OBP of .200 a piece, giving them a combo .400. :)

[TheWalls]

Just curious...

Why do you consider Conine and Stanton "useful parts"? I expect nothing from them. Both are either 40 or right at 40 and I remember 40. Unless your name is Roger Clemmons, you tend to regress from your norm.

Teams in previous playoff hunts have found both of them to "useful" and traded for them because of their experience and clutch performances - and they've delivered in the post season. There is no reason to believe that if the Reds are out of it and they're having decent seasons a contending team won't call an inquire about adding a veteran reliever or solid lefty bat for the stretch run.

[mth123]

Teams in previous playoff hunts have found both of them to "useful" and traded for them because of their experience and clutch performances - and they've delivered in the post season. There is no reason to believe that if the Reds are out of it and they're having decent seasons a contending team won't call an inquire about adding a veteran reliever or solid lefty bat for the stretch run.

Except Conine is a righty which is why the Reds acquired him.

As for the relievers, think about what the Reds paid for Cormier and expect that or less in return. Weathers and Stanton on 2 year deals won't find a taker.

[CRedsLarkin11]

I guess ya can't help at this time of the year to get a little optimism, it happens to me every year, just little things in your head saying, "Well, Lohse, Milton and Saarloos are not that bad", "This bullpen looks better than last year", "Griffey will return to form and stay healthy" but reality will set in eventually unfortunately and no, this team will not win the central. 3rd is more likely. (if not worse)

[flyer85]

my thought was the pitchers not named Harang and Arroyo.

[Always Red]

....almost as ugly as Roseanne singing the National Anthem while wearing a bikini.



Cyclone, you were doing your usual great job until I got there! UGH..thanks for the visual...:barf:

I've enjoyed reading through both threads; hope always springs eternal, especially right before spring training. And I'll always hope that the Redlegs play above their heads, every year.

Unfortunately, it's far easier to give way more than 10 reasons the Reds won't win the NL Central, and Krusty really had to stretch to get to 1o reasons they would win.

But I hope Krusty's right!:thumbup:

[Joseph]

Cyclone, you were doing your usual great job until I got there! UGH..thanks for the visual...:barf:

I've enjoyed reading through both threads; hope always springs eternal, especially right before spring training. And I'll always hope that the Redlegs play above their heads, every year.

Unfortunately, it's far easier to give way more than 10 reasons the Reds won't win the NL Central, and Krusty really had to stretch to get to 1o reasons they would win.

But I hope Krusty's right!:thumbup:

Amen to that.

[jmac]

I guess ya can't help at this time of the year to get a little optimism, it happens to me every year, just little things in your head saying, "Well, Lohse, Milton and Saarloos are not that bad", "This bullpen looks better than last year", "Griffey will return to form and stay healthy" but reality will set in eventually unfortunately and no, this team will not win the central. 3rd is more likely. (if not worse)

Bravo.....I mean....come on Spring time is right around the corner.
The sound of lawn-mowers and the smell of grills cooking and hotdogs,swimming and all that good stuff.
Now is the time people on here should be optimists.If the reds go 3-13 out of the shoot....then will be time to be realists but "right now" , we are tied for first at 0-0.:thumbup:

[tripleaaaron]

I admit, I too have high hopes each and every spring year in and out, but isn't that part of the fun? In our truly wide open division, we do have a shot, a much better one than in years before anyway. My optimism has grown rather than deflated in the last few years because I like the attitude of the organization. Whether I believe that we have a winner this year or not is irrelevent because its a new year, and anything can happen.

[redsmetz]

I admit, I too have high hopes each and every spring year in and out, but isn't that part of the fun? In our truly wide open division, we do have a shot, a much better one than in years before anyway. My optimism has grown rather than deflated in the last few years because I like the attitude of the organization. Whether I believe that we have a winner this year or not is irrelevent because its a new year, and anything can happen.

I'm one of the more optimistic board members, but I wouldn't suggest I have high hopes, but I do have hope. I'm hoping this thread is more tongue in cheek, because otherwise, it's one of the most cynical I've ever seen on RZ. I really don't believe this club is built for winning it all, but I do believe it's built to be competitive in what I've considered a gap year under the new regime.

Let's hope this prognosticaction is way off.

[Jpup]

1. Lou Pinella says that they will dispel the "curses" in Chicago in "short order". :evil:

[Joseph]

I'm one of the more optimistic board members, but I wouldn't suggest I have high hopes, but I do have hope. I'm hoping this thread is more tongue in cheek, because otherwise, it's one of the most cynical I've ever seen on RZ. I really don't believe this club is built for winning it all, but I do believe it's built to be competitive in what I've considered a gap year under the new regime.

Let's hope this prognostication is way off.

Tongue in cheek in relation to its existence yes. I think we all, especially in February and March [and April and May....] hold out hope it's the Reds year and that the cylinders will line up just so and they will be winners, even FCB [kidding pal, I know you're a fan] but there is a degree of possibility to many of these 10 [not THE 10 mind you], so in that regard it's not entirely T-I-C, though I'm not a cynical type.

[Puffy]

10 reasons the Reds won't win the NL Central in 2007:

1. Lohse

2. Milton

3. Saarloos

4. Majewski

5. Castro

6. Moeller

7. Cormier

8. Gonzalez and his sub .300 OBP and sub .680 OPS

9. Narron

10. Do I really need a ten??

[redsmetz]

Tongue in cheek in relation to its existence yes. I think we all, especially in February and March [and April and May....] hold out hope it's the Reds year and that the cylinders will line up just so and they will be winners, even FCB [kidding pal, I know you're a fan] but there is a degree of possibility to many of these 10 [not THE 10 mind you], so in that regard it's not entirely T-I-C, though I'm not a cynical type.

Fair enough, but today's it's colder than [insert non-publishable image of your choice] and I'd like to have a little hope.

I will repeat though, I don't expect them to win this year. I'm hoping for a servicable and respectable team and look forward to coming years. I know folks are tired of hearing that following all the years of "rebuilding", but I'd like to think new ownership is working towards that goal (Bob C's 'promises' for immediate winning notwithstanding).

I just don't agree with those who believe this team is trash this year. It's not a masterpiece, but I think can compete.

[durl]

In response to our beloved [and insane] Krusty's post, here are 10 reasons the Reds won't contend for the NL Central crown this season.

I do think it's interesting that most of your points have to do with players performing worse than last year. Making predictions based upon that is nothing more than a blind guess. You could just as easily predict them playing BETTER and the Reds contending for the division.

[Joseph]

I do think it's interesting that most of your points have to do with players performing worse than last year. Making predictions based upon that is nothing more than a blind guess. You could just as easily predict them playing BETTER and the Reds contending for the division.

Absolutely correct, which is what Krusty did in his thread, blindly guess that they will do better than they did last year, hence the existence of this thread.

[AdamDunn]

1. Our offense sucked at the end of the year and WK didn't do anything to make it better

2. Lohse is going to bloat to around a 5.00 ERA like he had with the Twins

3. Griffey WILL get injured and miss AT LEAST 30 games

4. Even with Griffey in, his defense sucks

5. Gonzalez is a liability on offense (around a 6 million dollar liability)

6. We have no definate closer and probably won't all season long

7. Freel will steal precious at bats from Encarnacion, even though he is probably the best offensive player on the team

8. (off of 7) Freel won't be playing in the outfield enough

9. Our offense sucked at the end of the year and WK didn't do anything to make it better

10.Our offense sucked at the end of the year and WK didn't do anything to make it better

[durl]

Why would Freel take so many at-bats from EE? With Aurilia gone (a natural sub for EE) and Conine splitting time at first with Hatteburg, it seems to me that EE will play as much as possible with Freel spending most of his time in the outfield.

[Puffy]

Why would Freel take so many at-bats from EE? With Aurilia gone (a natural sub for EE) and Conine splitting time at first with Hatteburg, it seems to me that EE will play as much as possible with Freel spending most of his time in the outfield.

Because Jerry Narron is the manager and he feels that the best way to improve EdE's defense is to make him sweat it, i.e., make an error and ride the bench the next game. Thats what he did last year, and truthfully we have no reason to think he will do so again this year. Except that he's Jerry Narron and thats not good.

[flyer85]

Honestly there are a lot more than 10 reasons. There just isn't much to like about this team. Bad offense, bad defense, bad pitching, looks like a trifecta to me.

[jmcclain19]

I just have one - and it's really the only reason why I am dreading the long upcoming season.

For 2007 the Reds essentially substituted Alex Gonzalez for Royce Clayton, Conine for Rich Aurilia, Mike Stanton for Kent Mercker, Chad Moeller for Jason LaRue & Kirk Sarloos for Brandon Claussen/EZ Ramirez.

And they still struggled to eek out 80 wins - four more than their run differential suggested they should win.

Three of those moves are washouts & Conine & Moeller are sharp downgrades.

Does that set anyone's heart a blaze about the teams' chances? Certainly doesn't do anything for me.

And that certainly doesn't account for contingencies. Going into 2006, the Reds were set with Harang and Claussen at the front of the rotation for years to come, with Arroyo & Milton as the mystery men with no one sure of any idea of what they would get out of either. Arroyo was a stud, Milton was Milton, Claussen imploded & Harang took a big step forward.
So what things are we "Sure" are going to happen this season which will end up being a complete 180?

[tripleaaaron]

I just have one - and it's really the only reason why I am dreading the long upcoming season.

For 2007 the Reds essentially substituted Alex Gonzalez for Royce Clayton, Conine for Rich Aurilia, Mike Stanton for Kent Mercker, Chad Moeller for Jason LaRue & Kirk Sarloos for Brandon Claussen/EZ Ramirez.

And they still struggled to eek out 80 wins - four more than their run differential suggested they should win.

Three of those moves are washouts & Conine & Moeller are sharp downgrades.

Does that set anyone's heart a blaze about the teams' chances? Certainly doesn't do anything for me.

And that certainly doesn't account for contingencies. Going into 2006, the Reds were set with Harang and Claussen at the front of the rotation for years to come, with Arroyo & Milton as the mystery men with no one sure of any idea of what they would get out of either. Arroyo was a stud, Milton was Milton, Claussen imploded & Harang took a big step forward.
So what things are we "Sure" are going to happen this season which will end up being a complete 180?

A Gonz. for Royce = Definate Upgrade
Conine for Aurillia = Definate Decline, but added OF depth
Stanton for Mercker = Upgrade over an injured Mercker
Chad Moeller for Larue = Downgrade, but that is only a very small portion of the big picture at the Catcher position, overall still about the same, younger and cheaper though
Sarloos for Claussen/Ramirez= We still have ramirez the last time I checked, and Sarloos for Claussen is possibly an upgrade, as of now we will call it a wash.
So, our offseason departures didn't outweigh our additions, not replacing the bats we lost in midseason is our only offseason failure, thus far. As for the rest of our club, we have improved. Not as evidently as a $100+ million signing, but we did so with minimal risk and without hampering our future.