Worst Player on 25 Man?

[MississippiRed]

When doing my 25-man roster for the other thread, it got me to thinking about who the worst player is who the team will likely keep on the 25-man roster. Who do you think it will be? My vote goes to Rheal Cormier.

Michael

[Crosley68]

I think there is a pretty good chance that it will be a pitcher.

[RedsManRick]

I vote Juan Castro.

[jmcclain19]

Chad Moeller.

Hands down.

Yeah Yeah I know he's only on the 40 man. But we all know he'll make the 25 man. And he'll be awful when he does.

[TexasRed]

I voted on Hamilton on and I am really pulling for the guy to do well..... At the end of the day though (if he really makes it) I think he is going to be the the low man on the totem pole.

[Jerry Narron]

I don't think we have any bad players on our 25 man. Wayne and I have been working together to better our roster for the upcoming season.

[Chip R]

I don't think we have any bad players on our 25 man. Wayne and I have been working together to better our roster for the upcoming season.


Work harder.

[Ron Madden]

I don't think we have any bad players on our 25 man. Wayne and I have been working together to better our roster for the upcoming season.

You seem like a Nice Guy but you suck. ;)

[flyer85]

there are a number of potential candidates

[noskill27]

If Hamilton makes it, he's hands down the worst player on the 25 man roster.

[mth123]

When doing my 25-man roster for the other thread, it got me to thinking about who the worst player is who the team will likely keep on the 25-man roster. Who do you think it will be? My vote goes to Rheal Cormier.

Michael

The same as the worst player on the 40 man - Rheal Cormier.

[TOBTTReds]

No votes for Stanton yet?

[Reds1]

Adam Dunn. he-he.............Just kidding. ;) I reserve the right to answer this question sometime during Spring Training...........

[kheidg-]

Juan Castro

[AdamDunn]

Alex Gonzalez, and he's starting!!!

[KronoRed]

So many choices, sadly.

[kxblue]

Alex Gonzalez, and he's starting!!!

Gonzalez is a much better option than Castro, and I am a very big Juan Castro fan.

[Dracodave]

A little guy we like to call...

Chad "Waste-o-space" Moeller.


By the way, if makes the team over Deno..The jettisoned Mil. catchers that truely suck as back ups in the league will now reach two. As Bennet is backup for Molina in St Louis.

[Dunner44]

Chad Moeller.... Enquirer wrote today that if Hoper of Denorfia have a lights out spring they might not carry 3 catchers. That being the case, hope one of them knocks the covers off some balls this spring.

Cormier isn't that bad... he just isn't a lefty specialist. If I recall correctly, he had better numbers against righties than lefties, but Jerry jettisoned stats and used him as a situational lefty... Shackelford is a situational guy; Cormier is not.

As for Hamilton, looks like we're going to have to live with him, so hope he pans out.

[Patrick Bateman]

I don't think we have any bad players on our 25 man. Wayne and I have been working together to better our roster for the upcoming season.

Why did you leave Milton in the 7th inning of a game against the Mets when he was obviously done?

[Dunner44]

Here's some proof to back up what I was saying about Cormier:

With the Phillies, he had an overall ERA of 1.59. His ERA against lefties was 1.93, righties was 1.35. Other signigicant stats: 4 of the 5 HRs he allowed came against lefties.
WHIP: L- 1.29, R-1.13.
K/9: L- 2.57, R-3.15.
Avg: L- .259, R-.197

With the Reds, you see similar numbers, but inflated across the board ;) Overall ERA was a 4.5 (which was about the bullpen ERA... so not as bad as others on the staff)

ERA: L- 5.4, R- 3.68
WHIP: L- 1.8, R- 1.77
K/9: L- 4.05, R- 3.68
Avg: L- .345, R-.355 (Ok, he just sucked here... small sample size)

[MississippiRed]

Chad Moeller.

Hands down.

Yeah Yeah I know he's only on the 40 man. But we all know he'll make the 25 man. And he'll be awful when he does.

I just can't make myself believe he'll be on the 25-man. I've read enough posts on RedsZone to take away some of my optimism, but that would be too much.

[mth123]

Here's some proof to back up what I was saying about Cormier:

With the Phillies, he had an overall ERA of 1.59. His ERA against lefties was 1.93, righties was 1.35. Other signigicant stats: 4 of the 5 HRs he allowed came against lefties.
WHIP: L- 1.29, R-1.13.
K/9: L- 2.57, R-3.15.
Avg: L- .259, R-.197

With the Reds, you see similar numbers, but inflated across the board ;) Overall ERA was a 4.5 (which was about the bullpen ERA... so not as bad as others on the staff)

ERA: L- 5.4, R- 3.68
WHIP: L- 1.8, R- 1.77
K/9: L- 4.05, R- 3.68
Avg: L- .345, R-.355 (Ok, he just sucked here... small sample size)

He had a BABIP of .238 in Philly in 2006. In 2005 his ERA was 5.90. The Reds version is more likely the real thing than the 1st half guy with Philly. With so few K's, the guy is very luck and defense dependent.

[keeganbrick]

Why does everyone say Juan Castro? The best defensive middle infielder we have and his offense wasnt exactly bad near the end of the season last year.

[Patrick Bateman]

Why does everyone say Juan Castro? The best defensive middle infielder we have and his offense wasnt exactly bad near the end of the season last year.

His defense is way overrated. He has no range. He may be able to field the balls he gets to well, but he simply doesn't get to many balls, which is just as important as fielding the balls you do get to.

And there is more than enough evidence to indicate that Juan Castro is a putrid hitter. A small hot streak doesn't take a career of crappiness away.

[scounts22]

Work harder.

:ughmamoru

[DaReds22]

I think my vote goes to Jery Vill he has barely any major leauge experience. We dont need another good defenesive shortstop when we have castro.

[keeganbrick]

Castro's D is not way overrated. He may not have the best range but he makes the play almost everytime he puts his glove on the ball. We would have won another 5-10 games last year if he had played rather than Clayton.

[kheidg-]

Castro's D is not way overrated. He may not have the best range but he makes the play almost everytime he puts his glove on the ball. We would have won another 5-10 games last year if he had played rather than Clayton.

We could have probably won a few more games having Roy McMilllion play SS instead of Clayton. This still does not mean that Castro is in any means a starting SS. He typically makes the easy play - but his defense is way overrated. It's a toss up between him and Moeller being the worst player on the 25 man - but I am choosing Castro.

[Puffy]

there are a number of potential candidates

yes, what he said

[klw]

Define Player

http://www.starstore.com/acatalog/Homer_ladies-man.jpg

[Dunner44]

He had a BABIP of .238 in Philly in 2006. In 2005 his ERA was 5.90. The Reds version is more likely the real thing than the 1st half guy with Philly. With so few K's, the guy is very luck and defense dependent.



Ah, BABIP... thats batting average on balls in play? Anyone care to explain this stat to me once more?

[mth123]

Ah, BABIP... thats batting average on balls in play? Anyone care to explain this stat to me once more?

I posted this in another thread a while back when discussing Weathers and Cormier 2007 outlook. The thread is "Are We This Bad?" and some other posters also added some more explanation if you want to look it up. There are plenty of threads discussing BABIP.




I should let one of the stat experts answer this but since I brought it up, Batting Average Balls in Play (BABIP) measures the hit frequency of balls that are hit into the field of play. It is the average on all AB against a pitcher that do not result in a HR, Walk or K. Research has shown that over a career most pitchers of all types be they studs or duds average around .290 to .300. The basic theory is that the pitcher can't control whether a ball put into the field of play will be turned into an out or not (hence the luck reference). All the pitcher can do personally is rack up K's, allow Walks or allow HRs. The rest is up to the defense behind him and the luck of where it goes.

It took me a while to buy into this until I saw some research that shows that most pitchers fall in somewhere between .280 and .310 and it is the results of the other events that differentiates the good from the bad. (This is measured in a stat called DIPS ERA which I have yet to fully comprehend). I still am not completely sold that a pitcher doesn't have some control over the stat ( a crummy pitcher giving up rope after rope is going to have a higher BABIP IMO) but the research that shows that the low-end guys and hall of famers mostly end-up in the .290 to .300 range is overwhelming. So even though its against my years of learning, I can not argue with the overwhelming evidence.

Once the stat is at least somewhat accepted, its pretty easy to apply.

1.) We all know that Walks and HR are bad and giving those up at high rates (say over 3 per nine for walks and over 1 per nine for HR) is going to lead to more runs allowed.

2.) We also know the value of a K in a big situation but just thinking about the formula, the importance becomes more evident. If we accept that the pitcher is going to give-up a BABIP of .290 to .300, then obviously pitchers who K more batters will be allowing less balls in play. So we can logically conclude that 30% of of a smaller number of balls in play will lead to less baserunners than a pitcher who doesn't K as many guys (i.e. 30% of a larger number of balls in play).

3.) Finally, and most obviously that BABIP stat itself is very telling. If a pitcher has a really good year (like Weathers last year and Cormier during his Philly stay in 2006) you have to look to his BABIP and see how much was attributable to good pitching and how much was due to good fortune of an unusually high number of balls in play turned into outs (although I still think the pitcher has some control but not enough to move the number way below the statistically proven averages).

So how do I apply that to Weathers and Cormier? In Weathers case his BABIP of .236 from 2006 is probably not going to be repeated. If that goes up to a still decent .290 it is going to lead to a number of added baserunners, fewer outs acquired and the need to face more hitters to get those outs. Now add-in the fact that he walks a lot of guys (over 4 per nine) and gives-up a lot of HR (almost 1.5 per nine) and an increase in BABIP will be very harmful (amplified) in his case. I know that logically, but depend on some one else to do the actual calcualtion. The ZIPS projection system at Baseball Think Factory has determined that Weathers projects to an ERA of 5.35 in 2007.

For Cormier, he was leading the league in ERA when the Reds acquired him. His BABIP at the time was .238. When he came to the Reds his BABIP "normalized" to a season average .276 (His BABIP in Cincy was .353 so he may not be as bad as he showed here last year, but overall stats in 2006 are still somewhat "lucky."). In his case the low K rate is the issue. Lower K's mean more balls in play and an increase in BABIP is more harmful than it would be to a guy who K's more hitters. ZIPS projects 4.89 for Cormier in 2007 ( I mis-spoke when I said over 5 in my earlier post).

I'm certain the stats guys can provide more detail and data (and correct any of my mis-statements), but that is my layman's approach.



I'll add that Cormier is 40 years old and makes $2.25 Million. Its pretty obvious that players decline when they get older (or no one would ever retire). Cormier has been a "last pitcher to make the staff" type most of his career. Now at age 40 a further decline is likely (it happens to everyone sooner or later). Given the other bullpen options that the Reds probably won't have room on the staff for (LH Pitchers Shackelford, Coutlangus, Dumatrait, Pelland and other pitchers like Matt Belisle, Jared Burton, Elizardo Ramirez, Brad Salmon, Victor Santos, Bobby Livingston) who are cheaper, in most cases offer more upside and (in some cases) could be useful as a potential 5th starter or innings eating swingman, then its easy to see why Cormier is my choice as the worst use of a 25 Man or 40 man roster spot. I'll add that Burton will need to be offered back to the A's and Ramirez and Dumatrait are out of options and will need to pass through waivers. None of these guys are world beaters, but why risk losing them for a guy who is likely to be awful and at best is an interchangeable part that offers nothing for the future? If you don't like any of the internal options, then go get some one better (just about anybody is) instead of locking that spot up for a bad pitcher like Cormier. Add in the $2.25 Million Cormier makes and its even more distasteful.

One of my hopes for Spring Training is that Cormier is traded to some team desparate for a lefty and that the Reds can:

1. Get his likely bad pitching off of the staff.

2. Use the roster spot to get a look at some younger pitchers to see if any have any potential to contribute in significant roles (4th or 5th starter, high leverge set-up guy, LOOGY for a tight spot, maybe even potential closer).

3. Save the $ for something they may want to acquire during the season or put it towards next year.

The Reds have a few guys that fit in this same boat but Cormier is the least useful for now and the future IMO.

[MississippiRed]

I posted this in another thread a while back when discussing Weathers and Cormier 2007 outlook. The thread is "Are We This Bad?" and some other posters also added some more explanation if you want to look it up. There are plenty of threads discussing BABIP.



I'll add that Cormier is 40 years old and makes $2.25 Million. Its pretty obvious that players decline when they get older (or no one would ever retire). Cormier has been a "last pitcher to make the staff" type most of his career. Now at age 40 a further decline is likely (it happens to everyone sooner or later). Given the other bullpen options that the Reds probably won't have room on the staff for (LH Pitchers Shackelford, Coutlangus, Dumatrait, Pelland and other pitchers like Matt Belisle, Jared Burton, Elizardo Ramirez, Brad Salmon, Victor Santos, Bobby Livingston) who are cheaper, in most cases offer more upside and (in some cases) could be useful as a potential 5th starter or innings eating swingman, then its easy to see why Cormier is my choice as the worst use of a 25 Man or 40 man roster spot. I'll add that Burton will need to be offered back to the A's and Ramirez and Dumatrait are out of options and will need to pass through waivers. None of these guys are world beaters, but why risk losing them for a guy who is likely to be awful and at best is an interchangeable part that offers nothing for the future? If you don't like any of the internal options, then go get some one better (just about anybody is) instead of locking that spot up for a bad pitcher like Cormier. Add in the $2.25 Million Cormier makes and its even more distasteful.

One of my hopes for Spring Training is that Cormier is traded to some team desparate for a lefty and that the Reds can:

1. Get his likely bad pitching off of the staff.

2. Use the roster spot to get a look at some younger pitchers to see if any have any potential to contribute in significant roles (4th or 5th starter, high leverge set-up guy, LOOGY for a tight spot, maybe even potential closer).

3. Save the $ for something they may want to acquire during the season or put it towards next year.

The Reds have a few guys that fit in this same boat but Cormier is the least useful for now and the future IMO.


This is the type of post that makes RZ a place that I visit often. When I started this thread, I chose Cormier. mth123 obviously agrees, but is very good in explaining why. Still, I am assuming that Moeller doesn't make the roster.

Like you, mth, I so want Cormier to be traded, as well as Weathers. I don't expect we'll see much out of either of them this year, for the reasons you explained. I can't believe, if Krivsky is in the mode of throwing pitchers against the wall until one sticks (or maybe more than one), that he isn't looking at younger guys that at least have some upside potential. As much time and money as he's spent on it, the bullpen may once again be what keeps us out of the playoffs.

[Redsland]

You said:

Castro's D is not way overrated.
You also said:

...Juan Castro? The best defensive middle infielder we have...

BTW, Alex Gonzalez says hi.