O/U for Reds wins this year

[Blitz Dorsey]

My online sportsbook (for entertainment purposes only) has not yet released the Over/Under lines for the 2007 season. It's always one of my favorite things to research and is always a better indictator of how the teams will finish than the various magazine previews. The O/U for the Reds was pretty low last year (something like 70.5). I wonder what they will open at this year. My guess is 80.5 and will probably take the over just to be loyal. No, I really think we are going to have a winning club this year. Just barely, but a winning club. My early projection is 83-79. Won't be enough to get us in the playoffs but will keep it interesting all year. Kind of like last year. But man would it be nice to break through and sneak in the playoffs. Now is the time to bite in the National League when there are no great teams. Make the postseason and anything can happen. As the very-average Cardinals (IMO) proved last season. I mean, they were above average of course, but not a World Series team. Anyway, will be interesting to see where the people who put their money where their mouths are have the Reds at to open the season.

[George Foster]

78-84....no way with this offense and only 2 starting pitchers will we be a
.500 team:cry:

[REDblooded]

yeah. as much as i want to be optimistic with this squad, I don't seen .500 either. We're gonna struggle to score runs at times, and probably get shelled 2 out of every 5 starts. Not to mention the Cubs will be back to full health this year, and I'm not loving our chances.

[Topcat]

84 wins due to some mid season acquisitions aka 60 game mark not true mid season time:thumbup:

[justincredible]

I'm feeling 79-83 this year.

[vic715]

This will be my 46th season and though I'm always optimistic to a degree I picked them to go 75-87 last year. I think this team has improved so I'll say 88-74 this year.EE and Dunn will have big years,Gonzales will play suburb defense, Griffey will hit 30 hrs drive in 90 and Saarloos and Bailey will solidify the starting rotation. Coffey will take the closers role and get the job done.The rest of the pen will be fine with Bray and Belisile being big contibuters this year.
As I said always optimistic.

[Redlegs]

88 wins in 2007. What makes anyone think this club isn't 8 games better than last year?

[mth123]

88 wins in 2007. What makes anyone think this club isn't 8 games better than last year?

Last year's team won games at an above .500 level in the first half with:

1. Hatte, Ross, and Phillips playing at higher than should be expected levels.
2. Kearns, Lopez and Aurilia contributing a lot of offense
3. Quality Starts from Milton and Ramirez (both coming off surgery)

And in the second half the Reds had:

1. A first time around the league rotation boost from Kyle Lohse
2. Other Worldly, BABIP driven, relief performances from Weathers and Schoeneweiss

And throughout the season won a number of games it should have lost from unlikely to be repeated drama in the form of:

1. Dunn's Grand Slam walk-off
2. Griffey's HR the first day off the DL
3. Ryan Freel's catch
4. David Ross Walk-off
5. Javy Heroics
6. Chris Michalek out of nowhere relief appearance in Philly
etc. etc. etc.

I just do not see many of these things being repeated or replaced. The Reds will no doubt get some help from unexpected sources, improvement from Dunn and Encarnacion, other exciting finishes, and maybe even more help from Bray and Maj than most expect, but this team has lost too much offensive talent from the time that it was good in 2006 (June) and have made no real improvement in any area for 2007 with the exception of defense at SS.

I am much more upbeat about the fanchise since the Harang and Arroyo deals, and I don't want to be a downer, but I can't get past the facts. I say 69 Wins in 2007.

[Reds1]

And throughout the season won a number of games it should have lost from unlikely to be repeated drama in the form of:

1. Dunn's Grand Slam walk-off
2. Griffey's HR the first day off the DL
3. Ryan Freel's catch
4. David Ross Walk-off
5. Javy Heroics
6. Chris Michalek out of nowhere relief appearance in Philly
etc. etc. etc.

I just do not see many of these things being repeated or replaced. The Reds will no doubt get some help from unexpected sources, improvement from Dunn and Encarnacion, other exciting finishes, and maybe even more help from Bray and Maj than most expect, but this team has lost too much offensive talent from the time that it was good in 2006 (June) and have made no real improvement in any area for 2007 with the exception of defense at SS.

I am much more upbeat about the fanchise since the Harang and Arroyo deals, and I don't want to be a downer, but I can't get past the facts. I say 69 Wins in 2007.[/QUOTE]

You know how baseball is - there will be high moments and Drama - just hopeful we won't repeat that 9 game losing steak after we tied for 1st place. You could also say Dunn won't suck in Sept, Griff won't miss the last month+, we will have better defense, Phillips after hot was cold and he'll probably be more ave. with hot streaks, we have a better bench and I think the pen will be better. No Yan and so many retreads. I think Loshe will be better then people think, and Milton is in his contract year. I think the pitching will be better then what you might think and top to bottom we'll put up runs. I see us hanging in the race and depending on injuries by us and other teams will be a big factor in what we end up doing. We meaning the Reds for those who don't like me saying that. :)

[keeganbrick]

70-90 wins, jus depends what old Jerry does.

[Shaggy Sanchez]

I hate to say it but it really wouldn't surprise me if this team lost 100 games. I think it will be more along the lines of 68-73 wins though.

[BigREDSfaninKY]

73-89 :thumbdown :thisyear:

[TOBTTReds]

75-86...there is a rain out that is not made up too

[membengal]

If you have an o/u line for the Reds at 70.5, that's an easy bet on the over. The Reds won't necessarily be good, but they should easily be in the 70s for wins.

[thatcoolguy_22]

If you have an o/u line for the Reds at 70.5, that's an easy bet on the over. The Reds won't necessarily be good, but they should easily be in the 70s for wins.

There is no way that we lose 92 games a this year. Harang and Arroyo will combine for over 30 wins by themselves... It's difficult for a team to lose that many games. Easy Over

[jojo]

The O/U for the Reds was pretty low last year (something like 70.5). I wonder what they will open at this year. My guess is 80.5 and will probably take the over just to be loyal. No, I really think we are going to have a winning club this year. Just barely, but a winning club. My early projection is 83-79.


I think you're spot on (see here for why (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54549)). I wouldn't touch the O/U at 80.5. I'd be comfortable going over at 70.5 though...

[guttle11]

83 wins.

[Heath]

83 wins.

That won the division last year.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

76-86

[bucksfan2]

75

[guttle11]

That won the division last year.

It won't this year. I just think that's where this team is. I think 30 wins out of Arroyo/Harang is reasonable, and 25 losses from the bottom 2 is reasonable. I think the bullpen will lose a few more than they'll win, and they'll do an ok job if holding leads.

They key will be that third spot. Be it Milton, or even Bailey down the line, I think that spot will provide slightly more good than bad, thus leading to a slightly better than .500 record.

[TheBurn]

Ocho-cinco :cool:

[Eric_Davis]

I hate to say it but it really wouldn't surprise me if this team lost 100 games. I think it will be more along the lines of 68-73 wins though.

Isn't Shaggy the one that always predicts doom, kind of like Eeyore?

With expectations like those, you should enjoy this season tremendously as they finish 25-30 games higher that what you "wouldn't be surprised in seeing".

[Handofdeath]

85 wins. I expect 35 wins from Harang and Arroyo. I think Lohse, Saarloos, and Milton can combine for about 35 themselves. Saarloos and Lohse have both had double digit win seasons, as well as Milton. 85-77 and 3rd in the NL Central.

Harang 19 wins Cy Young Award Winner
Arroyo 16 wins
Lohse 14 wins
Saarloos 11 wins
Milton 10 wins

Coffey will lead the team in saves with 25 but Guardado will finish the season as the Reds closer.

Offensively EE is the team MVP with a 25/108/.295 season and defensively Alex Gonzalez wins the NL Gold Glove at SS.

[bucksfan2]

I said 75 earlier. But what you have to look at is what the maxium number or wins the reds can have. I think their ceiling is 88 wins. If things go right I think that is about what they can win. I dont even want to look at the bottom but they could lose a lot of games this year if injuries happen, not to mention the fact that the reds have the most inept manager this side of Bob Boone.

[Eric_Davis]

28-37 w/ Junior in Center Field
58-39 w/ Junior anywhere else

86-76 overall.

[Highlifeman21]

74 wins

[Triples]

Last year's team won games at an above .500 level in the first half with:

1. Hatte, Ross, and Phillips playing at higher than should be expected levels.
2. Kearns, Lopez and Aurilia contributing a lot of offense
3. Quality Starts from Milton and Ramirez (both coming off surgery)

And in the second half the Reds had:

1. A first time around the league rotation boost from Kyle Lohse
2. Other Worldly, BABIP driven, relief performances from Weathers and Schoeneweiss

And throughout the season won a number of games it should have lost from unlikely to be repeated drama in the form of:

1. Dunn's Grand Slam walk-off
2. Griffey's HR the first day off the DL
3. Ryan Freel's catch
4. David Ross Walk-off
5. Javy Heroics
6. Chris Michalek out of nowhere relief appearance in Philly
etc. etc. etc.

I just do not see many of these things being repeated or replaced. The Reds will no doubt get some help from unexpected sources, improvement from Dunn and Encarnacion, other exciting finishes, and maybe even more help from Bray and Maj than most expect, but this team has lost too much offensive talent from the time that it was good in 2006 (June) and have made no real improvement in any area for 2007 with the exception of defense at SS.

I am much more upbeat about the fanchise since the Harang and Arroyo deals, and I don't want to be a downer, but I can't get past the facts. I say 69 Wins in 2007.

mth123:

I don't understand why you don't see these things happening again this year. What's different about Dunn's hitting or Freel's defense/all out play, etc, etc, etc that makes you think they won't make similar things happen again this year. And, its not like the pitchers you mentioned came directly from another planet last year. There were scouting reports on them and some of the opposing teams players had very likely seen them before.

I think maybe your post is just a mirror image of what may really take place. Maybe all those instances of brillance are an indication of what is hiding just below the surface. (I certainly don't attribute it to fate, but rather to the these guys' competitiveness and talent). If we have a Reds team that is together for a full season (as opposed to the revolving door from last year) the frequency of such outstanding play will be multiplied not subtracted. Team chemistry does play a role in how often outstanding play is exhibited. Given Krivisky's zealous trading philosophy last year, my guess is that most of the Reds were so tight from wondering if they were next in line for the ax that they squeaked when they walked :eek: . Give these guys a chance to play a little looser and we might just see a lot more of what we saw last year.

I'm being optimistic; I'm going with 85-88 wins!

[klw]

And throughout the season won a number of games it should have lost from unlikely to be repeated drama in the form of:

1. Dunn's Grand Slam walk-off
2. Griffey's HR the first day off the DL
3. Ryan Freel's catch
4. David Ross Walk-off
5. Javy Heroics
6. Chris Michalek out of nowhere relief appearance in Philly
etc. etc. etc.

I just do not see many of these things being repeated or replaced. .

These things usually balance themselves out. Witness these 8 bad losses from last year.


4/16 vs St. Louis 8-7 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260416124
5/20 vs Detroit 7-6 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260520106
6/10 vs Chicago 4-2 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260610117
6/12 vs Milwaukee 6-5 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260612117
6/27 vs KC 9-8 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260627117
7/3 vs Milwaukee 8-7 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260703108
7/5 vs Milwaukee 6-5 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260705108
8/11 vs Philladelphia 6-5 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260811122

[Chip R]

75


I agree. Not too high, not too low.

[smallbattle]

I think over 70 wins is a good year for this squad

[Danny Serafini]

161-1. Curse that August 3rd game at Pittsburgh!

[mth123]

mth123:

I don't understand why you don't see these things happening again this year. What's different about Dunn's hitting or Freel's defense/all out play, etc, etc, etc that makes you think they won't make similar things happen again this year. And, its not like the pitchers you mentioned came directly from another planet last year. There were scouting reports on them and some of the opposing teams players had very likely seen them before.

I think maybe your post is just a mirror image of what may really take place. Maybe all those instances of brillance are an indication of what is hiding just below the surface. (I certainly don't attribute it to fate, but rather to the these guys' competitiveness and talent). If we have a Reds team that is together for a full season (as opposed to the revolving door from last year) the frequency of such outstanding play will be multiplied not subtracted. Team chemistry does play a role in how often outstanding play is exhibited. Given Krivisky's zealous trading philosophy last year, my guess is that most of the Reds were so tight from wondering if they were next in line for the ax that they squeaked when they walked :eek: . Give these guys a chance to play a little looser and we might just see a lot more of what we saw last year.

I'm being optimistic; I'm going with 85-88 wins!

The Reds won more than their fair share of games in an unlikely manner. Yes Dunn and Freel are still here and both will play at comparable or better levels, but the team will not pull as many victories from the jaws of defeat as last year, (when the Reds outplayed their projected record by 4 or 5 wins). As for the offsetting losses, I think that was a product of a bad bullpen more than luck and I for one do not see the 2007 pen being much better than 2006.

As for the pitchers, Lohse pitched better in the 2 months after coming over to the Reds than at any time during his career. He has been established for many years as a pitcher who has an ERA hovering near 5, had been sent to the minors and banished to mop-up duty upon his return to the Twins. I do not believe that he suddenly became a good pitcher upon his arrival in Cincy. I guess its possible, but first time around the league performance seems more likely, has occurred on many occasions with other pitchers and seems to be supported by the league "catching-up to him" late in the year when he wasn't so good in his last few starts.

Milton and Ramirez are coming off surgery and are unlikely to repeat the good run of starts that the both strung together for a while last summer. If I were a betting man, I'd go with Ramirez as most likely to come back, but it is Milton who will get the ball.

This doesn't even consider a potential backslide from Arroyo who also outperformed his past by wide margin.

Weathers and Schoeneweis really performed well in the 2nd half of 2006. Weathers finished 2006 with a BABIP of .236 which was mostly acheived through an unconcious second half. Schoeneweis had a BABIP of .205 while with the Reds. Even if you believe that this years crop of relievers is better than last year's (I don't) they probably won't match the second half of 2006 when the Reds had two guys who were simply rolling 7s every time they went to the mound.

But all of that aside, the real reason this team will be significantly worse in 2007 is the offense. The first half of 2006 saw the Reds playing pretty well IMO. But Hatteberg was playing above his level, Phillips was on a real hot streak with timely hitting, and Ross was a consistent threat. In the 2nd half they all went in the tank pretty much and since they mostly hadn't perfromed nearly that well before, I think it not likely that they'll be as good as in the first half of 2006. Add to that the runs lost by replacing Kearns, Lopez, and Aurilia with Deno, Gonzalez and Conine and the offense is worse at 6 of the roster positions with only Deno and Phillips likely to be even close to average players for their positions. Even improvement from EE, health from KGjr and a bounce back from Dunn won't be enough to offset that. Those three all did pretty well in the first half anyway.

For the Reds to win 85 games they'll have to play like they did in the first half of 2006 for the entire season. This is not the same team as that team. IMO they are very much worse, especially on offense. Even the team from the 2nd half (which wasn't very good) got quite a boost from 3 pitchers whose performances are not likely to be repeated (or comparably replaced in Schoeneweis case).

[Natty Redlocks]

The Reds won more than their fair share of games in an unlikely manner. Yes Dunn and Freel are still here and both will play at comparable or better levels, but the team will not pull as many victories from the jaws of defeat as last year, (when the Reds outplayed their projected record by 4 or 5 wins). As for the offsetting losses, I think that was a product of a bad bullpen more than luck and I for one do not see the 2007 pen being much better than 2006.

As for the pitchers, Lohse pitched better in the 2 months after coming over to the Reds than at any time during his career. He has been established for many years as a pitcher who has an ERA hovering near 5, had been sent to the minors and banished to mop-up duty upon his return to the Twins. I do not believe that he suddenly became a good pitcher upon his arrival in Cincy. I guess its possible, but first time around the league performance seems more likely, has occurred on many occasions with other pitchers and seems to be supported by the league "catching-up to him" late in the year when he wasn't so good in his last few starts.

Milton and Ramirez are coming off surgery and are unlikely to report the good run of starts that the both strung together for a while last summer. If I were a betting man, I'd go with Ramirez as most likely to come back, but it is Milton who will get the ball.

This doesn't even consider a potential backslide from Arroyo who also outperformed his past by wide margin.

Weathers and Schoeneweis really performed well in the 2nd half of 2006. Weathers finished 2006 with a BABIP of .236 which was mostly acheived through an unconcious second half. Schoeneweis had a BABIP of .205 while with the Reds. Even if you believe that this years crop of relievers is better than last year's (I don't) they probably won't match the second half of 2006 when the Reds had two guys who were simply rolling 7s every time they went to the mound.

But all of that aside, the real reason this team will be significantly worse in 2007 is the offense. The first half of 2006 saw the Reds playing pretty well IMO. But Hatteberg was playing above his level, Phillips was on a real hot streak with timely hitting, and Ross was a consistent threat. In the 2nd half they all went in the tank pretty much and since they mostly hadn't perfromed nearly that well before, I think it not likely that they'll be as good as in the first half of 2006. Add to that the runs lost by replacing Kearns, Lopez, and Aurilia with Deno, Gonzalez and Conine and the offense is worse at 6 of the roster positions with only Deno and Phillips likely to be even close to average players for their positions. Even improvement from EE, health from KGjr and a bouce back from Dunn won't be enough to offset that. Those three all did pretty well in the first half anyway.

For the Reds to win 85 games they'll have to play like they did in the first half of 2006 for the entire season. This is not the same team as that team. IMO they are very much worse, especially on offense. Even the team from the 2nd half (which wasn't very good) got quite a boost from 3 pitchers whose performances are not likely to be repeated (or comparably replaced in Schoeneweis case).

Dang, what are you trying to do, make us cry?

Good, sobering post. Darn it.

[jmac]

I said 75 earlier. But what you have to look at is what the maxium number or wins the reds can have. I think their ceiling is 88 wins. If things go right I think that is about what they can win. I dont even want to look at the bottom but they could lose a lot of games this year if injuries happen, not to mention the fact that the reds have the most inept manager this side of Bob Boone.

Remember one thing...it is hard to project a "ceiling" for this team because if they are in contention, I am sure Mr. C will allow an add on of payroll.
So by midseason you could see help added to this team with likes of Bailey(if not before), Eddie G, and players aquired thru trades...

[Blitz Dorsey]

Expectations are too low! This is going to be a solid club this year. We're going to hang in there and at least finish .500.

Hey, I know our rotation isn't great by any means, but we've come light years from 2-3 years ago. I like the projected starting 5 of Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse and Saarloos. The defense is not where I want it to be but it's an improvement with Gonzalez at short. I thought the bullpen was going to be a big concern, but as I look at it I like the overall makeup of the pen. Not having a closer is huge and that will hurt us. But this team is going to keep its head above water and stay in the race all year IMO. I am going to say 83 wins. The keys offensively is to get a big year out of Edwin and have one player we're not expecting to step up with a career year. Just one! Kind of like Brandon Phillips last year who came out of nowhere. I agree this team is not great, but I think saying 74 or so wins is selling the Reds way short!

[klw]

thread average for those who assigned a number (not including the slightly unrealistic Danny Serafini) = 79.14 wins

[bucksfan2]

Remember one thing...it is hard to project a "ceiling" for this team because if they are in contention, I am sure Mr. C will allow an add on of payroll.
So by midseason you could see help added to this team with likes of Bailey(if not before), Eddie G, and players aquired thru trades...


I agree that Mr. C will spend money if they have a shot. But you also have to consider that they reds are building for the future with the Harang and Arroyo contracts. I dont want to see the reds pick up some fillers like they have in the past with guys like Cormier. They will more than likely have to give up a good prospect that they project to help the club in the future. I do not think that they will be able to add a big difference maker in the trade market, nor would I want them to give away a prize prospect in order to get him.