Who could be the odd man out?

[KoryMac5]

With Harang and Arroyo locked into starting spots, where do the rest of the Reds shake out.

Bailey-hasn't pitched yet in ST may start year in AAA will see tomorrow
Livingston-soft tosser Brantley and Brennaman raved about him today
Lohse-hamstring injury could hinder his shot
Milton-what else can I say that hasn't already been said
Santos-looked good in two innings so far hasn't been effective in the past
Saarloos-looked good in two innings has started and relieved Soto and Hatte love his stuff
Lizard-can he make it back from injury

I got to feel that everybody's spot except for the top two is up for grabs, how are things going to shake out.

1.Harang
2.Arroyo
3.Saarloos
4.Milton
5.Livingston
Bailey gets midseason call up

[Cedric]

Holy hell that's a terrible rotation.

That's about all I can think of.

[guttle11]

I think it's going to take a lot more than injury to push Lohse out, provided he's healthy come Opening Day.

I think the guy who has to prove himself the most is Eric Milton. It's the last year of his deal, so if he blows up in camp, getting rid of him will be more than feasible.

[HokieRed]

1. Harang; 2. Arroyo; 3. Milton; 4. Lohse; 5. Saarloos. Livingston, Bailey, and Lizard at AAA, if Lizard still has options. Belisle in the pen if he makes the 25; I don't see Santos figuring, despite today.

[KoryMac5]

And when you think about it more than just the pitching is up in the air. Look at the current log jam in the outfield. Hopper, Deno, and Hamilton all fighting for AB's

[Redhook]

Holy hell that's a terrible rotation.

That's about all I can think of.

I actually think our rotation is pretty darn good. Harang and Arroyo are very good. Bailey will be up by Memorial Day or sooner. One of the 3 Milton, Lohse, or Saarloos should pitch well. And we seem to have a lot more options waiting around when/if some of those guys don't work out.

It's our bullpen that concerns me a lot more than the rotation.

[Marge'sMullet]

And when you think about it more than just the pitching is up in the air. Look at the current log jam in the outfield. Hopper, Deno, and Hamilton all fighting for AB's

I think it's a nobrainer. You go with Hamilton. I would try to trade Deno. I'm still hoping WK makes a trade before the start of the season.

[jmac]

I actually think our rotation is pretty darn good. Harang and Arroyo are very good. Bailey will be up by Memorial Day or sooner. One of the 3 Milton, Lohse, or Saarloos should pitch well.

Agreed.If you look at stl's and stros rotation...ours doesnt look too bad.

[jmac]

I think it's a nobrainer. You go with Hamilton. I would try to trade Deno. I'm still hoping WK makes a trade before the start of the season.

A trade seems more possible daily imo.
Deno seems to be pressing a whole lot. Almost like he is playing for a spot on roster (which now he is) rather than playing for RF/CF.

[KronoRed]

If I'm trading an OF it's Freel, to a majority of teams out there he's a starter, meaning he'll most likely bring the biggest return.

[cacollinsmba]

If I'm trading an OF it's Freel, to a majority of teams out there he's a starter, meaning he'll most likely bring the biggest return.

I think you are right. My concern with the OF logjam is who leads off. If either Freel or Denorfia is traded, and say the remaining guy gets hurt, who leads off? Phillips didn't exactly excel in that role last year.

[TeamBoone]

Bailey-hasn't pitched yet in ST may start year in AAA will see tomorrow


Homer has pitched in one game, and he did quite well.

[Dracodave]

Quite honestly, this rotation..

Harrang
Arroyo
Loshe
Saarloos
Livingston

Doesn't sound half as bad as this one..

Harrang
Arroyo
Milton
Loshe
Saarlos

Atleast Bobby can learn on the job so to speak. He's not a flamethrow by anymeans but I think if he can keep that fastball/change up combo (See Tom G and Jamie Moyer even says Hi) he could be successful.

[5ToolPlaya]

I wish Deno would get a better shot but I think he'll be playing for someone else soon. Marlins?

[icehole3]

Bailey-hasn't pitched yet in ST may start year in AAA will see tomorrow
Livingston-soft tosser Brantley and Brennaman raved about him today
Lohse-hamstring injury could hinder his shot
Milton-what else can I say that hasn't already been said
Santos-looked good in two innings so far hasn't been effective in the past
Saarloos-looked good in two innings has started and relieved Soto and Hatte love his stuff
Lizard-can he make it back from injury


Bailey should be up by the all-star break, the more I think about it the more I would try to keep Bailey in the minors as long as possible.
Lohse...I would give this guy a whole year to either sink or swim, he's got the best stuff, Pole should be given the whole year to fix Lohse IMO
Livingston was waived that should count for something.
Milton is my most likely to be traded for a marginal minor leaguer IMO.
Santos...Brantley did have concerns about a guy throwing so hard and being that old not making it,"says he is a thrower not a pitcher"
Saarloos would get Milton's spot if he continues to get hammered or if he's trade or released.
Lizard is a guy I think will stick in the majors if he's not screwed over by Narron.
My sleeper is Wilson , if he gets his fastball up another notch, he knows what he's doing out there and has proved he can pitch in the launching pad (GAB)

[Always Red]

*I need for someone to explain to me what the big deal is about Bobby Livingston, other than Reds-paid employees raving about him. In other words a more objective opinion.

To me, he's certainly no better than the Belisle, Milty, Lizard logjam. I currently see Saarloos and Lohse as a step above that group. And Homer as a cut above them; but I agree that he will and should start the season in AAA.

*I'm getting ready to jump on the Hamilton bandwagon, but I'd actually like to see the guy play with my own two eyes first. I'd keep Deno, mainyly because he has an option left and is more flexible in where you can put him (ie- Reds or AAA), and I'd deal Freel from a position of relative strength.

I agree that if this Hamilton experiment succeeds, it will be a real feather in WK's cap. I've held off, for the most part, of criticizing him for the Kearns/Lopez debacle last year, but I recently read a Manny Acta interview where he almost came right out and said he couldn't believe the Nats got one fourth of their starting lineup and an excellent reliever in exchange for 2 middle relief guys.

If Hamilton works out, it will go a long way towards making up for that trade, which was made out of desperation, from a position of weakness. At least WK did not sit there and watch the ship go down in flames, he tried to take steps to fix the problems, whether I agreed with his moves or not.

[icehole3]

I agree that if this Hamilton experiment succeeds, it will be a real feather in WK's cap. I've held off, for the most part, of criticizing him for the Kearns/Lopez debacle last year, but I recently read a Manny Acta interview where he almost came right out and said he couldn't believe the Nats got one fourth of their starting lineup and an excellent reliever in exchange for 2 middle relief guys.



They mayve gotten 1/4 of their lineup, but isnt that lineup going to lose 100 games this year? Kearns/Lopez are bonafide major leaguers but Lopez was a 2nd Baseman playing SS and Kearns had a fallen out with management and was going to be traded somewhere. I think the same will happen to Dunn this year if he doesnt get his head out of his butt and works harder on his craft. I like that he didnt stand pat like Dan O’Brien wouldve.

[Always Red]

They mayve gotten 1/4 of their lineup, but isnt that lineup going to lose 100 games this year? Kearns/Lopez are bonafide major leaguers but Lopez was a 2nd Baseman playing SS and Kearns had a fallen out with management and was going to be traded somewhere.

Yes, Lopez was a hack at SS, but as many here have pointed out, maybe flipping him and Phillips would have gotten the Reds where they are now, except with more offense. I disagree re: Kearns. He had some attitude issues which he seemed to be overcoming; I think he was maturing. He also had a huge hole in his swing and was somewhat resistant to coaching, IIRC. But there are ways to deal with that other than just unloading him. Kearns will be an above average hitter and defender for years.

And to be honest, the Nats have a pretty good everyday lineup once they get past the injuries. They're going to lose 100 games because they have no starting pitching.

I do not mean to rehash the deal; what's done is done. I apologize for getting off topic.

My intent was to point out that if the Hamilton experiment continues to look as good as it does right now, it will help me to have more confidence in WK.

[jojo]

Yes, Lopez was a hack at SS, but as many here have pointed out, maybe flipping him and Phillips would have gotten the Reds where they are now, except with more offense.


Actually, I don't think the Reds would've been ahead. Here's (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1228810&postcount=16) why....

When you factor in salaries in '07, the Reds saved about $400K with Gonzo/Phillips vs. Lopez/Phillips assuming they could've signed Lopez for the same money that the Nats did.

[Always Red]

Actually, I don't think the Reds would've been ahead. Here's (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1228810&postcount=16) why....

When you factor in salaries in '07, the Reds saved about $400K with Gonzo/Phillips vs. Lopez/Phillips assuming they could've signed Lopez for the same money that the Nats did.

excellent point, jojo. And I'd rather have the defense the Reds have now in the middle INF positions.

Here's the work you did on that other thread, for everyone's benefit:



Quote:
Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?

Absolutely.

However, without going into a long winded post, here's a rough estimate. The difference in offense is probably negated by the defense (assuming Phillips is a league average shortstop and Lopez is somewhere between -5 and -10 runs as a second baseman-and these are just educated guesses while Phillips is +3 as a second baseman and Gonzo is about a +8 shortstop-with these being PMR ratings from '06).

Assuming 500 Ab for each guy, here are the projected RC based upon Pecota:

Offense:
Phillips/Lopez: 150 RC
Phillips/Gonzalez: 133 RC

So its a about 1.7 wins difference with the bats.

Defense:
Phillips/Lopez: -5 to -10 runs
Phillips/Gonzo: +11 runs

Overall, either combo is roughly around 140-145 RC after factoring in the defense.

The nice thing about simply flipping Phillips and Lopez would've been the Reds could've had Lopez for $4.1M (if the reported arb numbers are correct) with the ability to jettison him after '07 by simply letting him go if push came to shove. The Reds are locked into Gonzo for the next three years.
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[mth123]

The thing missing from this analysis is the effect of Phillips being a SS to his overall value. I have to think that if Phillips were to prove as an average defensive SS, he would be an extremely valuable property. At 2B, he's middle of the pack.

The overall value added to the organization with Phillips at SS and Lopez at 2B would be more than with Phillips at 2B. The worst case would be that Phillips fails and he moves to 2B with Lopez traded or Phillips traded directly and a good glove no hit stopgap guy like Gonzalez is plucked from some teams minor league system for next to nothing. The Reds may already have that in Paul Janish. If Phillips succeeds, the team has its long term SS. I'd rather have my SS long term and be looking to fill 2B (where there is usually a surplus of passable players) then to still be looking for the long term answer at SS (because even with Gonzalez stopgap addition, that spot still needs to be filled).

[KoryMac5]

Homer has pitched in one game, and he did quite well.

I didn't count the intrasquad game, we will see the real deal today and I'm gonna miss it.

[jojo]

The thing missing from this analysis is the effect of Phillips being a SS to his overall value. I have to think that if Phillips were to prove as an average defensive SS, he would be an extremely valuable property. At 2B, he's middle of the pack.

Right-I agree being average at shortstop is more valuable than being average at second base. The switch would potentially make Phillips more valuable but the original question was what would it do to the Reds RS/RA. That's two separate issues.