From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

[CySeymour]

Sam (NY): Did you see Crasnick's article about Harang's Cy Young calibre season last year? Were his stats (led league in wins and Ks) indicative of him being really, really good, or just a fluke?

Rob Neyer: (2:16 PM ET ) Harang's a good pitcher, and the A's shouldn't have let him get away. That said, both he and Arroyo are likely to decline, and with them the Reds, too.


Discuss...

[BRM]

I'd love to hear Rob explain why Harang is expected to decline. He's gotten better every year since he's been in Cincinnati.

[guttle11]

Arroyo I can maybe see. It's not my personal opinion, but I can understand the logic.

Harang has been getting steadily better every year. At worst, I see him staying at this level for a year or two before dropping off.

[hebroncougar]

Although I hope not, Baseball Prospectus has him falling off quite bit as well. His K numbers from last year were just way out of whack for what he had been doing, so I think PECOTA projections think that was a fluke and expect him to be back to his "norm" this year. Personally I'd be happy with 15 wins and about 180 k's to go with 230+ innings and an ERA around 4. Anything above that is gravy IMO.

[Joseph]

All my simulated seasons on MVP baseball usually put him in the low 4's for an ERA...I mean if we're doing completely baseless projections, I might as well toss mine out there too.

[dougdirt]

The projection systems all agree that both look to decline this season. Whether I agree with that on Harang is another story, but I do expect to see Arroyos numbers decline this year, probably to the tune of a 4.00-4.25 ERA.

[hebroncougar]

All my simulated seasons on MVP baseball usually put him in the low 4's for an ERA...I mean if we're doing completely baseless projections, I might as well toss mine out there too.

PECOTA's pretty based.

[Joseph]

Neyer I mean. He's usually a smart fellow, but that comment, taken in the context presented was less than 'expert'. PECOTA I respect typically.

[remdog]

PECOTA's pretty based.

Based? Or did you mean biased?

Rem

[MaineRed]

Joseph said they were baseless. hebron was saying they are base, the opposite of baseless.

[remdog]

Joseph said they were baseless. hebron was saying they are base, the opposite of baseless.

I know what the word means, I just want to clarrify his intent since it makes more sense to me that they are biased. Typically, gramaticly, someone would say something like, '.....they are well based....'.

Rem

[hebroncougar]

Joseph said they were baseless. hebron was saying they are base, the opposite of baseless.

Well, I meant PECOTA, which I thought he had said wasn't based. But he said he respected it, which I can understand. PECOTA can be wrong as well, but as far as predictions for individual players go, I find it hard to beat as long as health isn't an issue.

[remdog]

Got it.

Rem

[edabbs44]

Arroyo is a safe bet to fall a little.

Harang, I think, will get better. Put him in NY or Boston and he'd be overhyped.

[flyer85]

most any forecasting system will regress performance to the mean. The odds are likely that both will decline somewhat in 2007. However, there is a possibility they could still get better(or at least have a better season).

PECOTA Improve Rate for Harang is 34%, Arroyo is 30%

PECOTA Breakout Rate for Harang is 5%, Arroyo is 3%

Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%.

Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

Harang's 75% PECOTA is better than his numbers from last year, it means he has at least a 25% change of improving on 2006 in 2007.

Arroyo's 90% PECOTA is worse than his numbers from last year, it means he has less than a 10% change of improving on 2006 in 2007.

[durl]

The experts expected the Reds to finish last in 2006. The experts say Harang will decline this year. Let's hope the experts' accuracy remains consistent.

I'm with edabbs44. If Harang played for Boston, ESPN would be singing his praises daily.

[Superdude]

Harang is probably projected to decline because of his random spike in strikeouts last season. I think this is where you have to bring your own knowledge into things, because in no way do I see Harang's jump in K's as a random fluke. We all saw how his slider morphed from a decent breaking ball into a sick outpitch last season...especially when he burries it under the hands of lefties. Check out this split...

'05: (against LHH) AB/K: 5.08 (against RHH) AB/K: 4.90
'06: (against LHH) AB/K: 3.50 (against RHH) AB/K: 4.83

I like projection systems, but I think this is just one of those things that numbers can't see.

[Highlifeman21]

The experts expected the Reds to finish last in 2006. The experts say Harang will decline this year. Let's hope the experts' accuracy remains consistent.

I'm with edabbs44. If Harang played for Boston, ESPN would be singing his praises daily.


If Harang played for Boston, he'd be their 4th best pitcher, in good company with Dice-K, Schilling, and Beckett.

ESPN would be singing his praises that he didn't have to be the ace of the staff and could fly under the radar.

[edabbs44]

If Harang played for Boston, he'd be their 4th best pitcher, in good company with Dice-K, Schilling, and Beckett.

ESPN would be singing his praises that he didn't have to be the ace of the staff and could fly under the radar.

1) Dice Man hasn't pitched in a real 2007 game yet...Irabu was supposed to be better too.

2) I don't think Harang would be the 4th pitcher on that staff. Beckett? Not after last year. Schilling is old, don't forget.

[Mario-Rijo]

Harang is probably projected to decline because of his random spike in strikeouts last season. I think this is where you have to bring your own knowledge into things, because in no way do I see Harang's jump in K's as a random fluke. We all saw how his slider morphed from a decent breaking ball into a sick outpitch last season...especially when he burries it under the hands of lefties. Check out this split...

'05: (against LHH) AB/K: 5.08 (against RHH) AB/K: 4.90
'06: (against LHH) AB/K: 3.50 (against RHH) AB/K: 4.83


Exactly what I was going to state, the work he put in on the slider jumped him up a couple of notches. Who's to say that he hasn't found yet another spot in his game to improve. He may well have yet a bit more room to improve. And his hitting even improved last year, heck who knows maybe a gold glove year in '07!

The bottom line is that he is a hard worker and those type guys get results. Not always in the short term but in the long run it will shine through.

[hebroncougar]

1) Dice Man hasn't pitched in a real 2007 game yet...Irabu was supposed to be better too.

2) I don't think Harang would be the 4th pitcher on that staff. Beckett? Not after last year. Schilling is old, don't forget.

Don't forget the numbers Beckett put up in the NL. It's a far different animal pitching in the AL, and even moreso in the AL East. The lineups in that division are just sick.

[cacollinsmba]

Perhaps Neyer thinks Harang is an old 28.

[dunner13]

Just got mlb2k7 today and harang dominated on opening day against the cubs, the k's were low though. Maybe thats what neyer is basing his projection on.

By the way that game somehow doesnt have homer bailey on it, was rather disapointed.