Milton Gives Up 5 HR's to Single A Pirates!!!!

[Dunner44]

The ESPN announcers were sure: "Milton would normally start this game, but they know he's on the team, so they;re going to take a look at young Bobby Livingston"

And yet, there's this gem from today (per Fay):

Eric Milton gave up four home runs in five ininngs to the Single-A Pirates. The wind was blowing out, but it was less than 100 mph.


Ugh... and the ESPN guys just said they were sure Moller was going to make the team... :barf:

[reds44]

Not a joke.



Don't blow up the blog, but . . .

Eric Milton gave up four home runs in five ininngs to the Single-A Pirates. The wind was blowing out, but it was less than 100 mph.

$9 million is lot of salary to eat, but . . .

This just announced: "And the new pticher for the Reds . . . Gary Majewski"

posted by John Fay at 1:57 PM 0 comments

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/

[HumnHilghtFreel]

He was throwing batting practice... right?

That's... encouraging

[BRM]

Well, I believe he's actually the #4. I know that doesn't really make you feel any better though.

[Reds Fanatic]

Truly sad thing is he will be in the rotation while Livingston may not be.

[redsmetz]

I'm guessing they're going to take a hard look at whether Milton is physically okay and try to find a way to disable him. I can't imagine that anyone's going to want him. Oy vey! Dan O'Brien sure messed us up with that signing.

[Dracodave]

I'm guessing they're going to take a hard look at whether Milton is physically okay and try to find a way to disable him. I can't imagine that anyone's going to want him. Oy vey! Dan O'Brien sure messed us up with that signing.

Dan Obrien wanted Millwood and Clement. Linder said pick up Milton.


I dont think anyone could have predicted Miltons knee falling off, then his elbow then his head...:cry:

[Strikes Out Looking]

From his comments to Fay and my own wishful thinking, I wonder if he may not be mulling retirement.

[BRM]

Dan Obrien wanted Millwood and Clement. Linder said pick up Milton.


I dont think anyone could have predicted Miltons knee falling off, then his elbow then his head...:cry:

I thought Milton had a degenerative knee problem at the time of the signing?

[KronoRed]

From his comments to Fay and my own wishful thinking, I wonder if he may not be mulling retirement.

Walk away from 9 million? no way.

[redsmetz]

Walk away from 9 million? no way.

I think you're absolutely right, but that's why I think the Reds look long and hard as to whether they can legitmately disable him.

[Dracodave]

I thought Milton had a degenerative knee problem at the time of the signing?

I thought he had the surgery the year before signing, and everyone "thought" he was okay due to the numbers he put up in Philly.

Let me check then I'll edit this, because quite honestly, I don't know. I always thought he had more knee problems after coming here.
---------------------------

Yeah it was the year before he went to Philly...

In Philly he posted this line..


14 6 4.75 34 34 0 0 0 0 201.0 196 110 106 43 75 161 3 0 8.78 1.93 3.36 7.21 1.35

Then his knee fell off for us the next year and last year.

[edabbs44]

This rotation is going to be pretty bad this year.

[BRM]

I thought he had the surgery the year before signing, and everyone "thought" he was okay due to the numbers he put up in Philly.

Let me check then I'll edit this, because quite honestly, I don't know. I always thought he had more knee problems after coming here.

I'm not positive on it but I thought I read he had a degenerative knee injury when he signed. Maybe that came later? :dunno:

[BRM]

This rotation is going to be pretty bad this year.

Nah. I've been told Lohse has "great stuff" and Milton has a good quality start %.

[reds44]

This rotation is going to be pretty bad this year.
No worse then it was last year. Most likely better if Loshe, Saarloos, and Belisle (or Livingston instead of one of those 3) turn out to be anything.

[Chip R]

Nah. I've been told Lohse has "great stuff" and Milton has a good quality start %.


Good. For a minute there I was worried.

[Dracodave]

No worse then it was last year. Most likely better if Loshe, Saarloos, and Belisle (or Livingston instead of one of those 3) turn out to be anything.

The biggest IF There is Loshe.

Saarloos is a can and Belisle is a might if given the chance. Even his the previous two ERA's are about 4.10-4.50. I have a very good feeling Lohse hits 5.60-6.00 with his era, and still keeps his job. Loshe and Milton seem to be the two huge black holes in this rotation.

Then again, this entire rotation could bum next year and we'd be sitting on a 100 loss team. Who knows? All I know is, I'd take my chances will players who could only get better.

[reds44]

From his comments to Fay and my own wishful thinking, I wonder if he may not be mulling retirement.


Milton was none too happy.

How did it go?

"It went."

Were you just geting the ball up?

"I don't know. You can't pitch your game. You can't set anyone up."

But you felt OK?

"Yeah. I threw close to 100 pitches. I got my work in."


What does the bolded quote mean? Was he reffering to the wind?

[Dracodave]

What does the bolded quote mean? Was he reffering to the wind?

The fact that he can't set anyone up? He can't get on top of his pitches. His curveball is weak right now cause it's coming out flat due to the fact that he can force his body down on his knee. His fastball lost movement but is still hitting 90-94 mph. And he has no secondary pitch outside of that curveball. His change up floats now.

If he can set people up and pitch his game, he can't win.

[BRM]

Here's the rest from Fay:



You can't put much stock in the spring stats, and Single-A players swing from the heels against a big leaguer, but Milton is becoming PR nightmare for the Reds. Matt Belisle has a 2.08 ERA; Bobby Livingston has a 1.23 ERA and one of them is going to start the year in Triple-A. Milton is 16-23 with 5.89 ERA in two years with the Reds and he's getting a spot on track record.

But $9 million is a lot of eat.

[Dracodave]

Okay, saying Single A Pirates got lucky off of Milton is like saying Danny Graves didn't give up a brickload of hits. It's insipid to agrue with the fact that Milton still got taken yard by single A players.

And really whats the difference? He did this during the year as well. He let off homeruns to Clint Barmes who couldn't his way out of a wetpaper bag...

[reds44]

The fact that he can't set anyone up? He can't get on top of his pitches. His curveball is weak right now cause it's coming out flat due to the fact that he can force his body down on his knee. His fastball lost movement but is still hitting 90-94 mph. And he has no secondary pitch outside of that curveball. His change up floats now.

If he can set people up and pitch his game, he can't win.
So then I take it he was referring to his stuff, and not trying to blame it on outside factors.

Sorry, the comment just confused me.

[BRM]

It appears the Reds are more willing to eat losses than Milton's salary at this point.

[Dracodave]

So then I take it he was referring to his stugg, and not trying to blame it on outside factors.

Sorry, the comment just confused me.

Actaully, it was a very good question. I asked myself that, and thats the only conclusion I had. If he blamed outside factors, I would have laughed. The wind blows and he gives up four homeruns? He could give up four homeruns in a vacuum...

[BRM]

Now it's being reported as five homeruns in six innings.



Eric Milton gave up five home runs in six ininngs to the Single-A Pirates. He gave up 11 hits and three 93 pitch.

[Heath]

It appears the Reds are more willing to eat losses than Milton's salary at this point.

Losses are cheaper than 9 million.

[reds44]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA

Krivsky and B-Cast just have to eat the contract for this year. If he still had multipe years on his contract I could understand having to keep him, but it's the last year of his deal. Just eat the money and don't let it affect your W/L record. At this point Belisle, Saarloos, Livingston, and maybe even Santos are all better option the Milton.


Now it's being reported as five homeruns in six innings.

[BRM]

Losses are cheaper than 9 million.

They are out 9 million no matter what. Keeping him in the rotation means you are essentially eating the money AND the losses.

[mound_patrol]

We can only hope that BCast will approve of dumping Milton. Pretty sure that saarloos, livingston, and belisle can atleast do what Milton will be doing for us this year.

[RichRed]

I think I'd feel better if he gave up 4 HRs to actual Pirates.

[Strikes Out Looking]

I think I'd feel better if he gave up 4 HRs to actual Pirates.

In a sense, he is a pirate, stealing 8.5 million dollars per year.

[RichRed]

In a sense, he is a pirate, stealing 8.5 million dollars per year.

Aaarrrghh, ye be right!

[TeamBoone]

It just makes me sick that he will be in the rotation because of his salary rather than any of the better arms available.

They've gotta pay his salary whether he wins, loses... plays or doesn't play. I'd prefer the latter.

[M2]

If the organization wants to make a statement that it's in it to win it, that it's not going to perpetrate any frauds on the baseball watching public, that it's going to do what it takes to restore this franchise to greatness then cutting Eric Milton is the best move it could make.

The immediate reaction in the local market and throughout the game would be, "Holy cow, those guys aren't messing around."

Mind you, perhaps the Reds don't want immediate universal respect.

[Falls City Beer]

This rotation is going to be pretty bad this year.

Yep. A complete mess.

[penantboundreds]

This is suprising....I thought Milton was good...

For real, can we just get rid of this guy.

[Doc. Scott]

Dan Obrien wanted Millwood and Clement. Linder said pick up Milton.

I dont think anyone could have predicted Miltons knee falling off, then his elbow then his head...:cry:


Bull. The Reds tried to sign Clement and he went with Boston instead, so DanO turned around and offered the exact same contract to Milton.

Carl Lindner didn't care who we got; he only cared how much we spent.

[klw]

per Trent on a comment on his blog

at 3/26/2007 3:56 PM ctrosecrans said...
milton pitched 6 innings -- said he felt good, nearly got to 100 pitches

[RichRed]

per Trent on a comment on his blog


Quote:
at 3/26/2007 3:56 PM ctrosecrans said...
milton pitched 6 innings -- said he felt good, nearly got to 100 pitches


Imagine if he didn't feel good.

[mound_patrol]

Imagine if he didn't feel good.

No, please don't

[flyer85]

Single-A players swing from the heels against a big leaguerwhich means they should be easier to get out.

[flyer85]

If the organization wants to make a statement that it's in it to win it, that it's not going to perpetrate any frauds on the baseball watching public, that it's going to do what it takes to restore this franchise to greatness then cutting Eric Milton is the best move it could make.like I said in the game thread unless they are willing to cut bait on a dead fish like Milton then there are caveats to winning.

[Cyclone792]

Hearing that Milton is giving up truckloads of homers doesn't shock me one bit. Over his last three seasons, he's allowed 112 homers in only 540 innings, which is good for a stellar 1.87 HR/9.

Milton is what he is, which is precisely a heavily gopherball prone pitcher with a deteriorating knee and a fading strikeout rate. Mix all the above, and it's a formula with a known answer of getting shelled.

[flyer85]

He felt good that it was 20-22 year old kids and not real major league hitters, otherwise he might have gotten run-ruled.

[dougdirt]

Bull. The Reds tried to sign Clement and he went with Boston instead, so DanO turned around and offered the exact same contract to Milton.

Carl Lindner didn't care who we got; he only cared how much we spent.

Not what I have been told. Dano was against signing Milton, but Lindner was feeling heat from no season tickets and told him he better sign the biggest name left. That name happened to be Eric Milton.

[M2]

For real, can we just get rid of this guy.

The only thing to it is to do it. The team still has to pay him, but I'd rather pay Milton to sit at home (or pitch for someone else) than pay him to sabotage the team.

[membengal]

What someone else in here said, a PR nightmare.

Make no mistake, hiding him down against A ball players for this outing as opposed to facing the Red Sox on ESPN was supposed to mask how awful he has been. Ooops. Livingston pitches a great game, and Milton is so awful that it can't help but be noticed.

I think they hid him today hoping to quiet some of the calls for his head. Maybe a nice tidy 5 inning shutout against the Pirates' young'uns and some spin about how nasty his stuff was.

Guess not. Best laid plans and all that...

[dougdirt]

The only thing to it is to do it. The team still has to pay him, but I'd rather pay Milton to sit at home (or pitch for someone else) than pay him to sabotage the team.

If he pitches for someone else after we let him go, don't they have to pay some of his salary that we would be paying? Or am I outside the loop on that rule?

[Patrick Bateman]

If he pitches for someone else after we let him go, don't they have to pay some of his salary that we would be paying? Or am I outside the loop on that rule?

They would have to pay the minimum.

[Cyclone792]

Not what I have been told. Dano was against signing Milton, but Lindner was feeling heat from no season tickets and told him he better sign the biggest name left. That name happened to be Eric Milton.

I'm not sure what's the truth, but that honestly wouldn't surprise me one bit. I figure Lindner knew he was selling the team shortly after that point, so it's easy for him to make it appear he was opening up his pocketbook to sign a "big" name, sell the team, and then stick the new owner with the contract. Lindner signs Milton for three years, but then sells the team while there's still two years left on that contract.

Shrewd business move for Uncle Carl to stick someone else with the Milton tab, but that's nothing less than what I'd expect.

[Red Leader]

Here's a picture of Milton's son:

http://www.adrianhanft.com/Rian/archives/NeckBrace.jpg

It appears his Dad has taken such a beating that even this recessive trait got passed down through the bloodline... ;)

[M2]

Not what I have been told. Dano was against signing Milton, but Lindner was feeling heat from no season tickets and told him he better sign the biggest name left. That name happened to be Eric Milton.

DanO was so against that he did it. That would be kind of like me trying to act like I bear no responsibility for entering into my first marriage.

[Redsland]

"Let's hide Milton by having him pitch to kids next time. His numbers will have to look good."

"Nice thinking! We could even send one of our own whippersnappers up against the Reds Sox. They'll rock his world, and then we'll be able to send him down. Maybe even buy Milton a month's worth of starts."

:oops:

[BRM]

C'mon guys. We all know Milton was just getting his work in today. I'm sure he was working on his offspeed pitches or something. This is nothing to worry about...


:help:

[dougdirt]

DanO was so against that he did it. That would be kind of like me trying to act like I bear no responsibility for entering into my first marriage.

Well, do you or do you not do what your boss tells you, even if you think its not in the best interest of the company (as long as no moral question is involved)?

[M2]

If he pitches for someone else after we let him go, don't they have to pay some of his salary that we would be paying? Or am I outside the loop on that rule?

AK covered the basics of it.

First he'd go up on waivers. If someone claimed him (not going to happen), they'd get him and his contract. If no one claims him, the Reds still own his contract and Milton would have the choice of accepting a minor league assignment or becoming a free agent. He'd almost assuredly do the latter. Then a team could pick him up for the major league minimum With the Reds paying the remainder of his $9M contract.

[dougdirt]

Oh, on the bright side guys, they were the HIGH A Pirates team......

like so many have said already, we need to just cut him loose.

[westofyou]

Well, do you or do you not do what your boss tells you, even if you think its not in the best interest of the company (as long as no moral question is involved)?
http://www.lostandfrowned.com/milton.gif

And I said, I don't care if they lay me off either, because I told, I told Bill that if they move my desk one more time, then, then I'm, I'm quitting, I'm going to quit. And, and I told Don too, because they've moved my desk four times already this year, and I used to be over by the window, and I could see the squirrels, and they were married, but then, they switched from the Swingline to the Boston stapler, but I kept my Swingline stapler because it didn't bind up as much, and I kept the staples for the Swingline stapler and it's not okay because if they take my stapler then I'll set the building on fire...

[jojo]

Here's a picture of Milton's son:

http://www.adrianhanft.com/Rian/archives/NeckBrace.jpg

It appears his Dad has taken such a beating that even this recessive trait got passed down through the bloodline... ;)

Actually it has nothing to do with genetics.... its a chronic neck condition that he first got by jerking his head quickly as one of his Dad's fastballs got turned around and left the yard...

You see very similar chronic neck injuries in the children of professional tennis players....

:mooner:

[paulrichjr]

I am going out on a limb here but I honestly think that the Reds are going to cut Milton before the season starts or (and I think this is the most probable) try to put him on the DL. I think today was done to try and start the year out on the DL but it might have backfired and been worse than they expected. If he pitches in a Major League game (during Spring Training) then a DL start cannot be done until after that date but with him going to the minors he can have a date that is retro to his last start. I think today might mean instead, an outright release or a 60 day DL stint (making room for Livingston).

I think that this team is willing to step up and make the moves to win and obviously Milton cannot start the season in the 5 man rotation for us to do that. Milton will not come north with the Reds...That's my wager.

[Rocket_Fuel]

If this guy is in our rotation this year it will be a joke and I will lose a ton of respect for this organization. And I don't want to hear any excuses from them that it's "only Spring Training" and that "he's only working on mechanics". Sickening.

[M2]

Well, do you or do you not do what your boss tells you, even if you think its not in the best interest of the company (as long as no moral question is involved)?

If I'm adamantly opposed to something (particularly if it's something that's going to get hung around my neck if it goes wrong) then I make sure my boss relents from his/her wrongheaded thinking. Professionally speaking, twice I've refused to do something illegal and, after some short-term tension, it turned into a long-term benefit to both myself and my employer. It's amazing what principled competence can accomplish if you let it. Mind you, signing Eric Milton wasn't illegal, just incredibly stupid.

Since this is the same Dan O'Brien who brought us Cory Lidle, Ramon Ortiz and the second coming of Paul Wilson, I sincerely doubt he was all that opposed to the deal. Fundamentally I find it impossible to believe he thought those other guys would pitch well but somehow was suspect about Milton.

[Rocket_Fuel]

This rotation is going to be pretty bad this year.

The rotation will be fine as long as Milton isn't in it.

[ochre]

Since this is the same Dan O'Brien who brought us Cory Lidle, Ramon Ortiz and the second coming of Paul Wilson, I sincerely doubt he was all that opposed to the deal. Fundamentally I find it impossible to believe he thought those other guys would pitch well but somehow was suspect about Milton.
milton is fairly 'pitch-to-contact'esque.

[dougdirt]

If I'm adamantly opposed to something (particularly if it's something that's going to get hung around my neck if it goes wrong) then I make sure my boss relents from his/her wrongheaded thinking. Professionally speaking, twice I've refused to do something illegal and, after some short-term tension, it turned into a long-term benefit to both myself and my employer. It's amazing what principled competence can accomplish if you let it. Mind you, signing Eric Milton wasn't illegal, just incredibly stupid.

Since this is the same Dan O'Brien who brought us Cory Lidle, Ramon Ortiz and the second coming of Paul Wilson, I sincerely doubt he was all that opposed to the deal. Fundamentally I find it impossible to believe he thought those other guys would pitch well but somehow was suspect about Milton.

He also had a trade lined up after 2004 that would have sent Wilson to Texas for a nice set of prospects that was shot down by Lindner.

[M2]

He also had a trade lined up after 2004 that would have sent Wilson to Texas for a nice set of prospects that was shot down by Lindner.

According to doug flynn, Texas shot down that deal. Sounds like you've got access to a DanO spinner.

[Doc. Scott]

Not what I have been told. Dano was against signing Milton, but Lindner was feeling heat from no season tickets and told him he better sign the biggest name left. That name happened to be Eric Milton.

I find it hard to believe that Lindner said anything to DanO about player acquisition. John Allen, maybe. Lindner was more worried about getting more of that yummy oatmeal spooned into his mouth.

[Doc. Scott]

According to doug flynn, Texas shot down that deal. Sounds like you've got access to a DanO spinner.

Same comment on Lindner as before.

I remember that Wilson was supposed to go to Texas for Ian Kinsler (before Kinsler broke into the bigs), but that the Rangers ultimately decided against it.

[Patrick Bateman]

Same comment on Lindner as before.

I remember that Wilson was supposed to go to Texas for Ian Kinsler (before Kinsler broke into the bigs), but that the Rangers ultimately decided against it.

My memory was that the deal involved both Todd Jones and Paul Wilson going to to Texas for Kinsler and stuf, but the Rangers rejected it since they were trying to trade Kinsler for Larry Walker. They apparently liked the deal, but wanted Walker more. So the reds went ahead and traded Todd Jones, but in the meantime the Walker trade fell through. Texas apparently would have done the deal at this point, except the Reds had already traded Jones.

[fearofpopvol1]

If he must go somewhere, throw him in the bullpen. While I question his effectiveness there even, I think it's worth exploring before you outright cut him. There is no reason he should be in the rotation though. Either the DL or the bullpen.

[CRedsLarkin11]

I was really hoping Milton would be able to salvage something in this last season but it just doesn't look like it's going to happen. I've got confidence in the Reds that they'll do something(put him on the DL, cut him) before we throw games away with him on the mound. This is especially frustrating when there are actually some intrigueing candidates emerging(Livingston, Belisle, Saarloos, hell even Santos), something the Reds have not had in a long time.

[redsmetz]

In a sense, he is a pirate, stealing 8.5 million dollars per year.

Out of fairness to Milton, he's not stealing money. The Reds signed him and he's owed it. And he's never copped a plea regarding pitching poorly.

[dougdirt]

According to doug flynn, Texas shot down that deal. Sounds like you've got access to a DanO spinner.

No one is right all the time, but this guy has been right on several things in the past, so Ive got my faith in him.

[marcshoe]

If the Reds start the season with Milton in the rotation, I don't see them continuing sending him out there for very long if this sort of thing continues. And it will. The spring has shown that there are other possibilities. Okay, so they're not sure things; they're possibilities, and Milton no longer is even that.

'course I don't see the point of starting the season with him in the rotation.

[StillFunkyB]

Eric Milton pitching for this team hurts them way more than throwing 9 million in the garbage by releasing him.

[deltachi8]

I. Mind you, signing Eric Milton wasn't illegal,

well, it should have been.

[LawFive]

So, Milton, what's happening? Say, Milton, we've got some new folks coming in, people with talent, new people that we're gonna need space for. So I'm gonna ask you to move, m'kay? So if you can just go ahead and pack up your career and head out the door, that'd be great. M'kay? Thanks.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Has there been any thought to have him work out of the bullpen? He clearly isn't going to be a good starter but maybe if he only had to face guys one or work against a couple hitters he could be effective. I know other guys could do the same thing for a lot less than $9 million, but if we can find a way for him to get some hitters out its better than cutting him.

[Caveat Emperor]

The really sad (and telling) part of all this is that I'm in no way surprised to read the news that a bunch of kids barely old enough to shave whacked Milton all over the park.

Eric Milton has become less an irritating part of the Reds 25 man and more a running gag. I think I know what Chargers fans felt watching Ryan Leaf play.

Not that it really matters, I'd be genuinely shocked if Milton doesn't take the Womack Walk off the 25 man by May.

[Chip R]

Has there been any thought to have him work out of the bullpen? He clearly isn't going to be a good starter but maybe if he only had to face guys one or work against a couple hitters he could be effective. I know other guys could do the same thing for a lot less than $9 million, but if we can find a way for him to get some hitters out its better than cutting him.


Narron was asked by Marty the other day about the possibility of Milton being the 5th starter and Narron shot it down because the 5th starter would have to work out of the bullpen and Milton can't do that. Of course my follow-up question would be, "Why? Could he suck any worse out of the pen?"

[vaticanplum]

Narron was asked by Marty the other day about the possibility of Milton being the 5th starter and Narron shot it down because the 5th starter would have to work out of the bullpen and Milton can't do that. Of course my follow-up question would be, "Why? Could he suck any worse out of the pen?"

If the Reds didn't already have a sixty eleven member bullpen, I'd fully support Milton actually being a member of it. On the rare occasions that his knee is ok he can have decent stuff for a while, but he can NEVER be counted on after the fifth inning. If he's going to tax the bullpen that much they should just throw him in it.

[wheels]

They don't need another washed up lefty in the pen.

Send him away. Now.

[JaxRed]

By the way, I was in Sarasota today. It was really blowing. Milton makes the rotation but won't stay long if he is getting bombed. One of the things the new regime has done better is get guys off the team if they are getting bombed.

[M2]

What someone else in here said, a PR nightmare.

Make no mistake, hiding him down against A ball players for this outing as opposed to facing the Red Sox on ESPN was supposed to mask how awful he has been. Ooops. Livingston pitches a great game, and Milton is so awful that it can't help but be noticed.

I think they hid him today hoping to quiet some of the calls for his head. Maybe a nice tidy 5 inning shutout against the Pirates' young'uns and some spin about how nasty his stuff was.

Guess not. Best laid plans and all that...

The more I think about, the more I'm convinced you're absolutely right. Here's my question, at what point does an organization figure out that the guy it's sending to the A-ball start in order to spare him from potential indignity in a spring training game is probably someone best left off the roster?

[coachw513]

It appears the Reds are more willing to eat losses than Milton's salary at this point.

I simply cannot believe that we will see Milton last longer than Dave Williams did last year IF he continues this wretched performance...I'm willing to have this comment thrown back in my face if it's May and ole Uncle Milty is still givin' them up at a record rate...

Maybe it's just wishful thinking...but he will perform or he will be DFA'd...

Count on it!! :thumbup:

[coachw513]

Imagine if he didn't feel good.

:laugh:

[VR]

Here's the rest from Fay:
You can't put much stock in the spring stats, and Single-A players swing from the heels against a big leaguer, but Milton is becoming PR nightmare for the Reds. Matt Belisle has a 2.08 ERA; Bobby Livingston has a 1.23 ERA and one of them is going to start the year in Triple-A. Milton is 16-23 with 5.89 ERA in two years with the Reds and he's getting a spot on track record.

But $9 million is a lot of eat.

Looking at ST ERA's is beyond scary...
Here's your leaders for the Reds the last 3 years.....

2006
Hammond
Bailey
Wagner
Burns
Dumatrait
(Arroyo 6.75 btw)

2005
Keisler
Graves
Webber
Ortiz

2004
Haynes
Bong
Acevedo




I agree with the thinking that Milty gets his April starts if relatively healthy, and if Belisle and/or Livingston show they can pitch when it counts, you have them ready to jump in.

[jojo]

Looking at ST ERA's is beyond scary...
Here's your leaders for the Reds the last 3 years.....

2006
Hammond
Bailey
Wagner
Burns
Dumatrait
(Arroyo 6.75 btw)

2005
Keisler
Graves
Webber
Ortiz

2004
Haynes
Bong
Acevedo




I agree with the thinking that Milty gets his April starts if relatively healthy, and if Belisle and/or Livingston show they can pitch when it counts, you have them ready to jump in.


I agree. I wish they wouldn't even keep score in spring training.

[Will M]

Looking at ST ERA's is beyond scary...
Here's your leaders for the Reds the last 3 years.....

2006
Hammond
Bailey
Wagner
Burns
Dumatrait
(Arroyo 6.75 btw)

2005
Keisler
Graves
Webber
Ortiz

2004
Haynes
Bong
Acevedo




I agree with the thinking that Milty gets his April starts if relatively healthy, and if Belisle and/or Livingston show they can pitch when it counts, you have them ready to jump in.

OK.

However...Milton has been terrible for the Reds the last 2 years.
So he needs to pitch well in the spring to win a starting job.
Guys who have done well in the past, well you can ignore their spring stats. Guys who haven't done well in the past need to do well in the spring.

IMO he should in no way be given a starting job just because he will get paid $9M.
this is a sunk cost. if Bobby C and Krisky want to win then guys like Saarloos & Belisle should be given a shot instead of pitching Milton.

[dougdirt]

OK.

However...Milton has been terrible for the Reds the last 2 years.
So he needs to pitch well in the spring to win a starting job.
Guys who have done well in the past, well you can ignore their spring stats. Guys who haven't done well in the past need to do well in the spring.

IMO he should in no way be given a starting job just because he will get paid $9M.
this is a sunk cost. if Bobby C and Krisky want to win then guys like Saarloos & Belisle should be given a shot instead of pitching Milton.

But since Milton was told he had a starting job going into spring, he didnt have to pitch well to win a job.

[George Foster]

Can the Reds "pull an Astro" and say he is disabled like Bagwell, and file for insurance relief?

[roby]

The really sad (and telling) part of all this is that I'm in no way surprised to read the news that a bunch of kids barely old enough to shave whacked Milton all over the park.

Eric Milton has become less an irritating part of the Reds 25 man and more a running gag. I think I know what Chargers fans felt watching Ryan Leaf play.

Not that it really matters, I'd be genuinely shocked if Milton doesn't take the Womack Walk off the 25 man by May.

Only problem is, by then he will have blown four or five games!

[TheWalls]

By the way, I was in Sarasota today. It was really blowing. Milton makes the rotation but won't stay long if he is getting bombed. One of the things the new regime has done better is get guys off the team if they are getting bombed.

My problem with this approach is that with how front loaded our schedule is with divisional games we could really dig ourselves a hole by the time Uncle Miltie is 0-5 with an ERA of 8.00 and leading the known universe in home runs allowed.

Could we really be any worse with Lohse, Belisle and Livingston/Saarlos in the 3-5 slots? Plus Santos, Lizard and what's his name... oh yeah Bailey, waiting in the wings?

NO!

Sell some more fruit and make the clean cut NOW!

[BLEEDS]

Eric Milton pitching for this team hurts them way more than throwing 9 million in the garbage by releasing him.

We threw that money away 3 years ago.

Economics 101 - SUNKEN COST, look it up.

MLB Contracts are GUARANTEED. Don't cost us any more/less to send him out every 5th day or not.

Belisle/Santos/Livingston make about league minimum methinks. That would be all it would cost MORE - to put them on the Major League Payroll.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[M2]

But since Milton was told he had a starting job going into spring, he didnt have to pitch well to win a job.

Except we all know he never deserved an air-tight rotation guarantee in the first place. He's been awful for too long to take anything for granted. Complacency is not a viable defense for Eric Milton.

On a separate note, did the Reds' A-ball team hit any homers in today's game?

[Caveat Emperor]

On a separate note, did the Reds' A-ball team hit any homers in today's game?

No, but I did hear reports that Adam Rosales was seen trying to buy a Pirates jersey from the souvenir stand to see if he could sneak his way into taking a few hacks off Milton.

[Hands22]

He's still only 31, and one average year can make people forget about his injuries. He's playing for a contract this year. If he pitches anywhere close to average, he'll make millions more then he's worth next year. Someone has to threaten to take his job away and see if he has that hidden extra gear that athletes seem to have in contract years. I can't see him making much if he loses his starting role.

If the threat of his job and millions of bucks isn't making him pitch any better then I agree with the people about cutting our losses. We're not expected to compete. I'm not saying we don't have a chance, but I'd much rather see now what the young live arms in our system can bring for the next couple of years.

[kheidg-]

In no way do I like Milton in the rotation -- but that said to cut bait now when he may have value after a string of decent consecutive starts in the season when Livingston has had a few decent half starts in ST is ridiculous. The choice is a soft tossing Milton or an even softer tossing Livingston. Let Livingston prove he can pitch in AAA a couple starts before deciding what to do.

IMO Belisle has won the 5th starter position.

If Milton does suck his first 6-10 starts, go with any of Livinston/Ramirez/Santos/Bailey whoever does best in AAA.

[Ravenlord]

I agree. I wish they wouldn't even keep score in spring training.

or at the very least disregard them completely for those whom you know are going North (Harang, Dunn, Phillips, Coffey, etc.) and use them soley for deciding on something like the 5th OFer or the utility IF (unfortunately, Castro is cast there).

[Ltlabner]

Economics 101 - SUNKEN COST, look it up.



While you are touting sunken cost, you may want to also check out economic loss and salvage value as those are also viable economic theories. I figure since this has become Econzone we might as well look at the entire picture instead of just cherry picking the one econ theory that suits our arguements.

That Milton's contract is guarenteed does not make it logicial to DFA him. Sunk cost only refers to the decision making as to whether he should make the team. But it doesn't end there. Minimizing the economic loss and trying to salvage any value he might have (albiet minimal) are the logical course of action here. Redsmanricks "old car in the garage" analogy in a different thread was perfect.

Instead of DFA'ing him and losing the entire $9m, why not make a move so you only lose $7.5m, or get a player in return, or anything other than just burning up the money.

Someone will pick him up if we DFA him. Why not see if they'd be willing to part with anyone/something before we pay Milton to pitch for them?

And nobody has yet answered who exactly is going to jump into his spot and turn in at least mid 4's ERA over the course of an entire year. The answer of "anybody could" doesn't cut it. Do people really think Belisle and/or Livinston can based soley on their spring training (since both of them have acomplished the feat exactly zero times in their carears)?

[mth123]

While you are touting sunken cost, you may want to also check out economic loss and salvage value as those are also viable economic theories. I figure since this has become Econzone we might as well look at the entire picture instead of just cherry picking the one econ theory that suits our arguements.

That Milton's contract is guarenteed does not make it logicial to DFA him. Sunk cost only refers to the decision making as to whether he should make the team. But it doesn't end there. Minimizing the economic loss and trying to salvage any value he might have (albiet minimal) are the logical course of action here. Redsmanricks "old car in the garage" analogy in a different thread was perfect.

Instead of DFA'ing him and losing the entire $9m, why not make a move so you only lose $7.5m, or get a player in return, or anything other than just burning up the money.

Someone will pick him up if we DFA him. Why not see if they'd be willing to part with anyone/something before we pay Milton to pitch for them?

And nobody has yet answered who exactly is going to jump into his spot and turn in at least mid 4's ERA over the course of an entire year. The answer of "anybody could" doesn't cut it. Do people really think Belisle and/or Livinston can based soley on their spring training (since both of them have acomplished the feat exactly zero times in their carears)?

Agree. Despite, spring training numbers, any alternative is likely to be equally as bad (Saarloos will be worse IMO). They all have options and won't be lost. The argument about moving on and getting innings for some of the alternatives to evaluate the future has some merit and if the Reds find it impossible to move Milton into the season, then there will be a time to cut him loose. But right now, I don't see the team getting good pitching out of his spot in the rotation no matter which of these alternatives are chosen. In my mind its a wash for the present and if the future is the concern, any money recouped by moving Milton will probably have more value to the future perfomance of the team than giving these other guys a shot. Santos is a 30 year old guy who's career stats look worse than Milton's. Livingston is a super soft tosser that has only a ultra slight chance of becoming Jamie Moyer and anything less for a soft tosser like him is, well, Eric Milton. Saarloos is the most rediculous of all. This is a guy who Walks about 4 per nine and K's about 3 per nine. Everyone is touting the fact that he is a ground ball guy, but in spite of the ground balls, he gave up about 1.4 HR per nine innings while pitching a pitcher's paradise in Oakland not to mention some favorable road parks like Seattle and Anaheim. That rate will soar to Milton territory in GABP with road parks like Wrigley and Houston subbing for the AL west big parks. I think Belisle has shown some promise and has decent peripheral stats behind it. IMO he's the #5 starter and it really doesn't matter who pitches in Milton's spot (except I like the idea of Belisle #3 with Milton #5 to give his knee more rest when he's skipped in the rotation). I say give Milton a few starts while trying to move his contract because the others (except maybe Ramirez if he's healthy) offer nothing IMO.

I do share the concern of the masses, that if Milton is the choice, it won't be to showcase him but to actually use him all year. If that's the reason for keeping Milton, then I agree with the majority and prefer that they just get rid of him now.

[OldRightHander]

Walk away from 9 million? no way.

Maybe they'll sign me too. I can give up homers for 9 mil.

[Big Daddy P]

Ahhh, the joys of Uncle Milty. What a character. What a waste of money.

I there a Reds fan here with gobs of money to pay this contract off so we don't have to suffer thru another season of this useless hunk of pink flesh?

Maybe we can get The Hanshoi Tigers to take him for a couple new Sony's for the Reds clubhouse!

I can't stand another season, please make him go away!

[bucksfan2]

The debate over milton and sunk cost is getting a little tiresome to me. You can argue everyone on the reds (with a major league contract) has a contract is a sunk cost. Unless traded you are going to pay the guarenteed contract regardless of performance. When the season starts you are basically going to pay a certain amount to operate the club for the season. You can argue that some players are more valuable due to their performance related to their contract. Lets say milton struggles and is put in the bullpen and EZ or Livingston replaces him. You could argue that instead of Milton's 9 million you now have a #4 spot that cost you an average of 5 million for the season. If I am the reds I thorw him in the 5 spot. Pitch him every other week or so and hope that knee can stay healthy with longer rest.

[cincrazy]

Personally, I wouldn't cut him. Think of all of the money that this team could be LOSING if we cut him.

For example, every Eric Milton start this year at GABP can be announced as "Hard Hat Day." All fans that purchase tickets in the outfield will be given a free hard hat!!! Now tell me who wouldn't flock to the gates for that attraction.

Cutting Eric Milton will rob this team of several potential sell outs, and will insult all construction worker's in the greater Cincinnati area, as it would make the Reds look like they denounce the use of hard hats. Can the Reds risk a PR hit such as this? Answer that one yourself, but I have faith that you'll answer it correctly.

(I had to try for at least a little bit of humor... it's either laugh my way through this Milton mess, or throw myself off of the sun deck during a Milton start in protest. I'll go with some humor.)

[Krusty]

Still, you have to remember it is only a spring training game. Look at Belisle and Livingston's major league careers. I wouldn't put too much weight into what they have done so far in spring training. Milton knows he has made the roster. These games don't count so he can experiment with pitches that he wouldn't do in a major league game.

[westofyou]

Still, you have to remember it is only a spring training game. Look at Belisle and Livingston's major league careers. I wouldn't put too much weight into what they have done so far in spring training. Milton knows he has made the roster. These games don't count so he can experiment with pitches that he wouldn't do in a major league game.

Yeah, that's it... "He's Experimenting."

Has been for 3 years now eh?

[Chip R]

But since Milton was told he had a starting job going into spring, he didnt have to pitch well to win a job.


I'm not so sure he'd have pitched any better if he were making the minimum and told he had to make the team.

[Krusty]

With his history of knee problems, he will continue to give up home runs.

Now if he continues to get lit up the first month or so of the season, the Reds can decide to eat his contract and put Livingston and Belisle in the fourth and fifth spots while either Saarloos or Santos be the swingman out of the pen. But if Bailey looks impressive in his first 10 starts, I think you'll see him in the starting rotation by Memorial Day.

[Redsland]

If we release him and he gets picked up by another team in the Central, the $9 million we'll pay him to pitch there will be money well spent.

As for the question of who is going to replace him and post a mid-4's ERA, Milton's actual three-year split is a mid-5's ERA. As a Red, it's a tick under 6.

Last year, Belisle posted a mid-3's ERA with the Reds. Lohse was in the mid-4's. The Lizard was right there with Milton. Gone-but-not-forgotten types like Claussen, Franklin, Germano, Johnson, and Michalack put up numbers at or below Milton's. So that kind of "production" is not hard to find.

[westofyou]

I think you'll see him in the starting rotation by Memorial Day.

Just in time to forget about the Reds and start paying attention to auto racing!!

[Krusty]

As I said in another thread, it is easy to cut a guy when it isn't your money that pays his salary.

And for the Reds, eating 9 million isn't easy to do. And if he goes to the Cardinals, Astros and Brewers and somehow helps them, who is kicking themselves in the butt?

Now if he gits lit up the first month of the season, then I would think differently about cutting him. If Bailey looks impressive in Louisville, then it would make it easier for the Reds to cut Milton. But look at Belisle, Livingston, Saarloos and Santos major league track records and ask yourself if you feel comfortable having these guys round out the final two spots of your starting rotation?

[westofyou]

And for the Reds, eating 9 million isn't easy to do. And if he goes to the Cardinals, Astros and Brewers and somehow helps them, who is kicking themselves in the butt?

Let's keep him so we can kick ourselves in the butt?

[Krusty]

Just in time to forget about the Reds and start paying attention to auto racing!!

We all know Krivsky won't rush the kid. That is why I figured they want him to get around 10 starts at Louisville. But if he does get the callup, I don't expect him to be the immediate savior that some people think he will be. Look at the young stud pitchers that have come up in the past two seasons (Felix Hernandez, Zach Duke, Chad Billingsley) and most of them have to go through the growing pains.

[BRM]

What on earth makes anyone think he would help those teams? And I'm pretty confident a combination of Belisle, Saarloos, Livingston, etc. will pitch better than well below replacement level. Because that's where Milton will be, well below replacement level.

[Krusty]

Let's keep him so we can kick ourselves in the butt?

It is easier to hide him on the DL then just releasing him.

[BRM]

It is easier to hide him on the DL then just releasing him.

He'll have to come off the DL at some point.

[Krusty]

What on earth makes anyone think he would help those teams? And I'm pretty confident a combination of Belisle, Saarloos, Livingston, etc. will pitch better than well below replacement level. Because that's where Milton will be, well below replacement level.


Like I said there is a big difference between eating 9 million dollars than 1 or 2 million.

[BRM]

Like I said there is a big difference between eating 9 million dollars than 1 or 2 million.

I agree with that. We'll see how serious Bob is about winning here in the next month.

[Krusty]

He'll have to come off the DL at some point.

True. Krivsky can return the favor Jim Bowden dealt him last year by trading Milton to Washington, where he might have better success pitching in that big ballpark compared to GAB.

[westofyou]

We all know Krivsky won't rush the kid. That is why I figured they want him to get around 10 starts at Louisville. But if he does get the callup, I don't expect him to be the immediate savior that some people think he will be. Look at the young stud pitchers that have come up in the past two seasons (Felix Hernandez, Zach Duke, Chad Billingsley) and most of them have to go through the growing pains.

I'm not saying bring up Bailey, this has zip to do with him.

I'm saying Eric Milton no longer is a MLB pitcher, despite the fact that he gets paid for just that.

[Redsland]

He'll have to come off the DL at some point.
Why? Blame it on the knee, which isn't going to improve.

Assuming the Reds insured his contract (WARNING, NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION), then I've got no problem DL-ing him for the year and saving half of his salary (the usual insurance payout).

[BRM]

Why? Blame it on the knee, which isn't going to improve.

Assuming the Reds insured his contract (WARNING, NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION), then I've got no problem DL-ing him for the year and saving half of his salary (the usual insurance payout).

Can they legally do that? Wouldn't Milton have some say in something like that?

[Redsland]

As I said in another thread, it is easy to cut a guy when it isn't your money that pays his salary.
True, but Castellini has shown that he doesn't mind cutting and running.

Last year, the Reds released the following guys who had guaranteed, major league deals:

April 14: Jacob Cruz, $500,000 (vested when he made the 25-man roster)

May 2: Tony Womack, $2,000,000

July 14: Quinton McCracken, $600,000 (so, half of that got eaten)

July 24: Esteban Yan, $1,250,000 (acquired May 30, so 1/3 of that got eaten by the Reds)

That's over $3 million right there. Sure, we got cash with Yan, but we sent cash to NY with Dave Williams, so let's call that a wash. Plus we sent $3 million to KC with LaRue. So in seven or eight months' time, the Reds ate $6 million in an effort to improve the team.

Given that reality, is eating $9 million to get rid of Milton really that much of a stretch?

[Redsland]

Can they legally do that? Wouldn't Milton have some say in something like that?
He might grouse to the players' union, but if the Reds' medical staff says Milton isn't healthy, the team is well within its rights to disable him.

Pete Harnisch knows something about that.

[BRM]

He might grouse to the players' union, but if the Reds' medical staff says Milton isn't healthy, the team is well within its rights to disable him.

Pete Harnisch knows something about that.

Interesting. I can't see the Reds doing that though.

[Redsland]

Interesting. I can't see the Reds doing that though.
Me neither. For one, I doubt they were able to insure his contract, given his injury history.

[M2]

I'm not saying bring up Bailey, this has zip to do with him.

I'm saying Eric Milton no longer is a MLB pitcher, despite the fact that he gets paid for just that.

That's my take too. There's a zillion rationalizations people can come up with for Milton, but the central truth of the matter is Milton can't do the job. Maybe the Reds won't find someone who can, but Milton can't. The money isn't an issue because he can't pitch well enough to justify his contract.

There is no mystery with Milton. He's a known quantity and knowing what we know there's no sane reason for the Reds to send him out for his inevitable failure.

The Reds need to face reality on this one. They tried to slip Milton through an A-ball game and he got bombed. The team's actions here speak volumes. If the club had any confidence in Milton he'd have been on the mound against the Red Sox yesterday and Livingston would have been his caddy. If the club is nervous about starting Milton in a Grapefruit League game then I fail to see the logic of putting him into a game that counts. How long can the team ignore its own instincts and Milton's every fifth day arsonist act?

[Cyclone792]

That's my take too. There's a zillion rationalizations people can come up with for Milton, but the central truth of the matter is Milton can't do the job. Maybe the Reds won't find someone who can, but Milton can't. The money isn't an issue because he can't pitch well enough to justify his contract.

There is no mystery with Milton. He's a known quantity and knowing what we know there's no sane reason for the Reds to send him out for his inevitable failure.

The Reds need to face reality on this one. They tried to slip Milton through an A-ball game and he got bombed. The team's actions here speak volumes. If the club had any confidence in Milton he'd have been on the mound against the Red Sox yesterday and Livingston would have been his caddy. If the club is nervous about starting Milton in a Grapefruit League game then I fail to see the logic of putting him into a game that counts. How long can the team ignore its own instincts and Milton's every fifth day arsonist act?

Yep, I'd even go so far as to say that a good part of me believes Milton will get torched more this season than he has in his first two seasons with the Reds.

His knee is likely progressively getting worse rather than getting better or at least sustaining itself, and his strikeout rate has just been sliding downhill. Had it not been for a 47 point drop in BABIP from 2005 to 2006, Milton last season would have been just as bad, if not worse, than the Milton from 2005. Really, at this point rolling the dice with BABIP luck is about all that can salvage Milton in terms of run prevention, and that's not enough to warrant any pitcher a spot on an MLB staff.

The Reds may finally have enough mildly interesting arms stacked away between the big league club and Louisville that finding a replacement for Milton is probably a better bet to be more productive instead of less productive. That may not have been the case last season with guys such as Dave Williams, Joe Mays, and Chris Michalak getting starts, but I have to believe that guys such as Belisle, Saarloos, Ramirez, Livingston, Bailey (if he's called up midseason), etc. have a greater chance to be better than Milton-like awfulness than Milton himself.

[Ltlabner]

Last year, Belisle posted a mid-3's ERA with the Reds. Lohse was in the mid-4's. The Lizard was right there with Milton. Gone-but-not-forgotten types like Claussen, Franklin, Germano, Johnson, and Michalack put up numbers at or below Milton's. So that kind of "production" is not hard to find.

The same Belisle that hasn't pitched over 150+ innings since 2004 and put up5.26ERA when he did? That 3.6ERA last year was over a whopping 40 innings of work. You really think he's going to jump in and grind out an entire seasons worth of starts, and give you an ERA he's never previously acheived while pitching that much?

The same Lizzard who pitched a carear high 104 innings in the majors last year and posted a 5.37ERA in doing so?

And if you plug in any of those gone-and-lets-forget them types and get the same production what the heck have you acomplished really other than spending even more money to get the same horrable pitching results? Talk about spinning your wheels.

Look, I'm looking for ways to get rid of Milton too (as long as we get something in return besides the carnal vengence of sending him packing) but somebody has to take that mound. But I think people have lost sight that at this point there really isn't a flood of people on the team currently who we can count on to give us relable starting pitching, with better performance, over the course of an entire year.

[westofyou]

But I think people have lost sight that at this point there really isn't a flood of people on the team currently who we can count on to give us relable starting pitching, with better performance, over the course of an entire year.
Milton is the worst Reds pitcher in history with more then 50 games started.

That fact is right in my crosshairs .


ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP GS PCT RSAA
1 Eric Milton -1.55 5.89 4.35 339 60 .410 -47
2 Jay Hook -1.38 5.23 3.85 377 56 .378 -55
3 Herm Wehmeier -1.25 5.25 4.00 1087 148 .415 -145
4 Jack Armstrong -.94 4.61 3.68 413.2 72 .439 -36
5 Tim Pugh -.87 4.92 4.05 371.1 55 .480 -38
6 Mike LaCoss -.76 4.39 3.64 549 89 .478 -45
7 Tony Cloninger -.71 4.31 3.60 526.1 77 .450 -36
8 Frank Pastore -.69 4.30 3.61 937 138 .441 -62
9 Milt Pappas -.61 4.04 3.42 490.2 75 .508 -9
10 Gerry Arrigo -.60 3.86 3.26 431.1 57 .471 -15

HITS/9 IP DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP GS PCT RSAA
1 Eric Milton -1.46 10.62 9.16 339 60 .410 -47
2 Tim Pugh -1.43 10.45 9.01 371.1 55 .480 -38
3 Mike LaCoss -1.30 10.08 8.78 549 89 .478 -45
4 Paul Wilson -1.15 10.21 9.06 396.2 66 .488 -31
5 Jim Merritt -1.02 9.68 8.66 600 83 .549 -33
6 Chris Reitsma -.97 9.91 8.94 404.1 53 .407 -8
7 Larry Benton -.94 10.89 9.95 744 86 .388 -32
8 Benny Frey -.93 10.97 10.03 1156 127 .416 -68
9 Andy Coakley -.85 8.66 7.82 507 58 .424 15
10 Bill Phillips -.85 10.20 9.36 877 106 .474 -

[Ltlabner]

Milton is the worst Reds pitcher in history with more then 50 games started.

That fact is right in my crosshairs .

That's nifty and all, but doesn't really answer the question as to who's going to hop right in there and give us better numbers? Guys who have never shown the ability to do so before?

And by better numbers I don't mean going from 5.99ERA to 5.67ERA Doing so acomplishes what?

(note: I know ERA isn't a good measure of much of anything, but it's just easier to type than WHIP, K/9, BB/9, etc).

I'm not defending Milton. I think he should go. But the next logical question is who jumps into his spot and right now I don't think there are any good answers to that question.

I hope Wayne can change that in the next 6 days.

[westofyou]

That's nifty and all, but doesn't really answer the question as to who's going to hop right in there and give us better numbers?

Yes it does, anyone can do that bad. Anyone in the league, anyone in the organization.

[Redsland]

That's nifty and all, but doesn't really answer the question as to who's going to hop right in there and give us better numbers?
If he's the worst Reds pitcher ever, then by definition anyone at all could do better.

Furthermore, at no time in recent memory have the Reds had as many non-terrible pitchers as they do right now. This is the perfect time to start sifting through them.

[pedro]

If he's the worst Reds pitcher ever, then by definition anyone at all could do better.

Furthermore, at no time in recent memory have the Reds had as many non-terrible pitchers as they do right now. This is the perfect time to start sifting through them.

On the surface that would seem true and I tend to believe it but someone could theoretically get the shot and be so incredibly awful that they don;t ever get the 50 starts required to be on woy's list.

[westofyou]

On the surface that would seem true and I tend to believe it but someone could theoretically get the shot and be so incredibly awful that they don;t ever get the 50 starts required to be on woy's list.

20 starts, 125 IP


ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP GS PCT RSAA
1 Ryan Dempster -2.17 6.39 4.21 204.1 35 .400 -46
2 Kevin Jarvis -2.00 6.21 4.21 230.1 34 .444 -53
3 Joey Hamilton -1.74 5.90 4.15 152.2 21 .294 -25
4 Eric Milton -1.55 5.89 4.35 339 60 .410 -47
5 Elizardo Ramirez -1.47 5.91 4.45 126.1 23 .250 -16
6 Jay Hook -1.38 5.23 3.85 377 56 .378 -55
7 Charlie Puleo -1.37 5.00 3.63 165.2 28 .333 -23
8 Jose Acevedo -1.28 5.59 4.31 304.1 54 .432 -48
9 Santo Alcala -1.27 4.81 3.55 147.2 23 .706 -19
10 Herm Wehmeier -1.25 5.25 4.00 1087 148 .415 -145

HITS/9 IP DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP GS PCT RSAA
1 Kevin Jarvis -2.11 11.18 9.06 230.1 34 .444 -53
2 Chris Welsh -1.96 10.53 8.57 139.1 24 .400 -13
3 Elizardo Ramirez -1.90 11.11 9.21 126.1 23 .250 -16
4 Frank Smith -1.80 10.49 8.70 199 21 .423 -26
5 Joey Hamilton -1.75 10.61 8.86 152.2 21 .294 -25
6 Ramon Ortiz -1.73 10.82 9.09 171.1 30 .450 -16
7 Bubba Church -1.63 10.42 8.78 197 29 .400 -19
8 Jimmy Haynes -1.51 10.41 8.90 306 56 .405 -23
9 Charlie Leibrandt -1.48 10.26 8.79 315.2 42 .485 -26
10 Eric Milton -1.46 10.62 9.16 339 60 .410 -47

[Ltlabner]

If he's the worst Reds pitcher ever, then by definition anyone at all could do better.

Furthermore, at no time in recent memory have the Reds had as many non-terrible pitchers as they do right now. This is the perfect time to start sifting through them.

So we plug in a guy and only get a .06ERA improvement and you'll promise not to complain about it at all for the entire year? Because you know it was technically an improvement over Milton. Yea, I didn't think so.

For all the griping and moaning that goes on at RZ over minor incremental improvements instead of going for the gusto, the sudden desire to be happy with a modest pitching improvement baffles me.

[Cyclone792]

The same Belisle that hasn't pitched over 150+ innings since 2004 and put up5.26ERA when he did? That 3.6ERA last year was over a whopping 40 innings of work. You really think he's going to jump in and grind out an entire seasons worth of starts, and give you an ERA he's never previously acheived while pitching that much?

Eric Milton's been so lousy while in a Reds uniform that it's beyond comprehension. While Belisle isn't a world-beater, he's somewhat interesting, and he compares very favorably vs. Milton. Here's Milton's career numbers as a Red vs. Belisle's total career numbers ...


Milton Belisle

Innings 339 134
DIPS ERA 5.24 4.45

HR/9 1.83 1.14
K/9 5.65 6.10
BB/9 2.50 3.15

Now I know most of Belisle's work has been out of the bullpen since he's only started seven games, but he'll also only be 27-years-old in June and also doesn't have a shot knee like Milton does.

Milton's knee problem is only going to further destroy his K/9 numbers, which have progressively fallen each of the past three seasons and will probably dip near or below the 5 K/9 level, and it's quite possible his HR/9 rating could spike up even higher. Belisle, on the other hand, is striking out a few more batters and has also done a significantly better job at keeping the ball in the park thus far through his career.

Now I can't say with certainty that Matt Belisle can go out and pitch 175 innings next season, and I wouldn't know how much workload he could handle as a starter through the season before wearing down a bit. What I am very confident about, however, is that whatever innings Belisle can provide will be a higher quality than the innings Milton can provide. And with Milton's knee problem, his pure inning workload is liable to continue dropping too (he only pitched 150 innings last season anyway).

As a starting pitcher, Eric Milton looks like he's pretty much finished. It's time to start looking for replacements everywhere, including internally, because it's a lost cause running him out there nowadays.

[westofyou]

So we plug in a guy and only get a .06ERA improvement and you'll promise not to complain about it at all for the entire year? Because you know it was technically an improvement over Milton. Yea, I didn't think so.

For all the griping and moaning that goes on at RZ over minor incremental improvements instead of going for the gusto, the sudden desire to be happy with a modest pitching improvement baffles me.

Seriously, the Reds pitching has sucked historically and it's just getting out of the worst part of the bottom right now, and that will be accomplished by the lack of patience shown to the status quo when it comes to arms, the time is now to cut off the bad limbs and let this tree grow, enough of the bottom of the barrel of pitching in the lifetime of everyone on this board, enough of crap that we are supposed to stomach from over payed mistakes from the previous regimes, enough of plus 5.00 ERA power pitchers with no power, enough, enough, enough.

[Falls City Beer]

Seriously, the Reds pitching has sucked historically and it's just getting out of the worst part of the bottom right now, and that will be accomplished by the lack of patience shown to the status quo when it comes to arms, the time is now to cut off the bad limbs and let this tree grow, enough of the bottom of the barrel of pitching in the lifetime of everyone on this board, enough of crap that we are supposed to stomach from over payed mistakes from the previous regimes, enough of plus 5.00 ERA power pitchers with no power, enough, enough, enough.

Damn skippy. We fans deserve better. I'm sure I'll hear about how I'm not a Reds' stockholder, so I should just shut up, but, bullcrap, the fans are the straw that stirs any team's drink. And they bloody well know it.

They need to do right by the fans of Cincinnati because they can do right by them if they try.

[pedro]

So we plug in a guy and only get a .06ERA improvement and you'll promise not to complain about it at all for the entire year? Because you know it was technically an improvement over Milton. Yea, I didn't think so.

For all the griping and moaning that goes on at RZ over minor incremental improvements instead of going for the gusto, the sudden desire to be happy with a modest pitching improvement baffles me.

2 years of watching Milton suck is enough to know what we have in him. Time
to find out of anyone else can do better.

[Strikes Out Looking]

The difference between Milton and Belisle is that Milton is at the end of his career and regressing, Belisle is at the beginning of his career and progressing.

I feel something is going on with Milton and his spot on the team/in the rotation, even as we frantically type about it. John Fay just posted this:


As for the Reds of rotation, Narron said: "It's Harang and (Bronson) Arroyo . . . "

It has been Harang, Arroyo, Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse all spring. But it sounds like that could be tinkered with.

Seems to me the pitchers next Thursday and Friday may surprise us.

[TC81190]

Can Milton really still get it up to 94?

[Cyclone792]

The difference between Milton and Belisle is that Milton is at the end of his career and regressing, Belisle is at the beginning of his career and progressing.

I feel something is going on with Milton and his spot on the team/in the rotation, even as we frantically type about it. John Fay just posted this:

Seems to me the pitchers next Thursday and Friday may surprise us.

I will also add one more interesting tidbit regarding Milton, his slot in the rotation, and the beginning of the season ...

In my observation, and I could be totally wrong, people in general seem to be a bit more enthusiastic about the Reds and the season starting this season compared to previous seasons. I thought I read somewhere a few weeks ago that ticket sales for the first night game of the year (Game #2 Wednesday night) weren't lookin' bad.

Anyhow, up until the past few days, I figured the rotation would be Harang-Arroyo-Lohse-Milton-5th starter. If that's how it plays out, Milton would be starting the very first Friday night game of the year. With good weather - and with a nice start in the Cubs series - that's a game that could draw fairly well, perhaps in the 30-35k range. Parents won't have to worry about kids having school the next day like they would for the Wednesday night game, and it very well could be the first Reds game of the year for many fans.

If you're Wayne Krivsky and Jerry Narron, do you want Eric Milton on the mound for that game Friday night, a game that has potential to fill the seats a bit and get fans excited?

I can't speak for anyone else, but as a fan, Milton on the mound sure isn't a scenario that would get me excited.

[Dracodave]

Can Milton really still get it up to 94?

I'd have to lean towards he probably still could. He was touching 93/94 last season. I would say "if he can't pitch hard its batting practice" but it appears it always has been for two seasons.

[vaticanplum]

Anyhow, up until the past few days, I figured the rotation would be Harang-Arroyo-Lohse-Milton-5th starter. If that's how it plays out, Milton would be starting the very first Friday night game of the year. With good weather - and with a nice start in the Cubs series - that's a game that could draw fairly well, perhaps in the 30-35k range. Parents won't have to worry about kids having school the next day like they would for the Wednesday night game, and it very well could be the first Reds game of the year for many fans.

If you're Wayne Krivsky and Jerry Narron, do you want Eric Milton on the mound for that game Friday night, a game that has potential to fill the seats a bit and get fans excited?

I can't speak for anyone else, but as a fan, Milton on the mound sure isn't a scenario that would get me excited.

With all the brains on this board, surely we can devise a viable kidnapping plan in a week and a half.

For the record, I have completely given up on Milton. He had a great start against Minnesota last spring training and showed flashes of brief hope when he was healthy throughout the year, and I thought he could be a serviceable fifth starter if healthy. I no longer feel that way, and he's not going to get better. Any argument for his playing on this team can only go back to salary anymore. Cut him. Paying him $9 million is painful enough; paying him and being forced to watch him pitch on top of it is unbearable.

[Chip R]

Lance and Dave Lapham were talking to Joe on Lance's show today and Joe was alibing for Milton. He was saying the wind was blowing out and he was probably pressing and trying to throw 101 instead of 91. But Joe also said if he can't get the job done, they can't keep sending him out there.

[VR]

That's nifty and all, but doesn't really answer the question as to who's going to hop right in there and give us better numbers? Guys who have never shown the ability to do so before?

And by better numbers I don't mean going from 5.99ERA to 5.67ERA Doing so acomplishes what?

(note: I know ERA isn't a good measure of much of anything, but it's just easier to type than WHIP, K/9, BB/9, etc).

I'm not defending Milton. I think he should go. But the next logical question is who jumps into his spot and right now I don't think there are any good answers to that question.

I hope Wayne can change that in the next 6 days.


Anyone can give better #'s than his 2005 results, easily.

A small portion of #4 starters and very few #5 starters matched his 'success' last year.

The reality is that he put up acceptable #'s for a #5 starter last year. The problem is that he was probably the most overpaid #4 or #5, especially for this payroll.

I could care less about what he's done this spring, as long as he's getting recovered at a decent pace from his surgery. All of the young guys have shown they have the stuff, but not the confidence to deliver when it counts. I'm ok with letting them grow into that, instead of throwing them into the fire.

[vaticanplum]

Lance and Dave Lapham were talking to Joe on Lance's show today and Joe was alibing for Milton. He was saying the wind was blowing out and he was probably pressing and trying to throw 101 instead of 91. But Joe also said if he can't get the job done, they can't keep sending him out there.

It's funny how gales of wind just follow Milton wherever he goes. I'm going to start calling him Zephyr.

[westofyou]

Zephyr... good place to get a Barqs and your smokes.

[Falls City Beer]

I'm going to start calling him Zephyr.

Puff the Magic Dragon.

[Chip R]

It's funny how gales of wind just follow Milton wherever he goes. I'm going to start calling him Zephyr.


And the wind cries, Eric.

[M2]

That's nifty and all, but doesn't really answer the question as to who's going to hop right in there and give us better numbers? Guys who have never shown the ability to do so before?

I'm going to go out on a limb and assert that it shouldn't be relatively hard to get someone who can out-perform the worst pitcher in franchise history.

Mind you, you've created a ridiculous construct here, a classic Catch-22. Just because certain pitchers haven't done it yet doesn't mean they can't. Beyond that, the one thing we know for a fact is that Milton can't hop in there right now and give us better numbers. So, if you're actually interested in someone doing better then Milton has to go. Perhaps no one will do better, but trotting Milton out to the mound guaran-damn-tees it.

The guy who goes into his spot is whoever the organization has on hand who seems like the best candidate at the moment, likely either Saarloos or Livingston. If that guy doesn't work out, then someone else gets a shot and the hunt will continue until someone can step in and do a credible job. I know it's far from ideal, but I vastly prefer to see the team conduct that search than obsessively cling to a complete failure.

[Patrick Bateman]

I'm not defending Milton. I think he should go. But the next logical question is who jumps into his spot and right now I don't think there are any good answers to that question.

I hope Wayne can change that in the next 6 days.


Are you really that afraid that we couldn't find someone better than Milton? What's the downside to trying someone else? A guy like Belisle/Saarloos is likely to do better, and IMO, the downside is that they pitches like Milton.

I just don't see what you are afraid of losing by switching pitchers.

[fearofpopvol1]

Let's also not forget that Milton is an ex-twin and as a result, gets a pass that many other Reds will not!

I do think Wayne or more appropriately Jerry needs to put some pressure on him and say that the rotation is more competitive this year and nobodys job is truly safe and that it's time to step it up. It may now make a difference, but it's worth a shot.

[KronoRed]

It's funny how gales of wind just follow Milton wherever he goes. I'm going to start calling him Zephyr.

I wish he was one, as in a member of the AAA team of the same name :D

[Ltlabner]

. I know it's far from ideal, but I vastly prefer to see the team conduct that search than obsessively cling to a complete failure.


Are you really that afraid that we couldn't find someone better than Milton? I just don't see what you are afraid of losing by switching pitchers.

What part of "I want to get rid of Milton too" don't you folks understand? It's not a matter of being afraid or obsessivley clinging to a failure or whatever other reasons you want want to give. I'd like to see him sent packing (hopefully for some value, no matter how slight). Out of the rotation. Not pitching for us. Gone. No longer a Red. Nowhere near a pitching mound. Not employed by the Reds. Not in the rotation. He's dead to me. Don't pitch for us. Be gone evil being. Clear enough?

My only point is that currently we have nobody on the staff that will give us the sorts of numbers I would call significant step forward. I agree that we've got some interesting arms but I don't have much faith that they are the saviors people have touted them to be. I'd lump Sarrloos, Livingston and Belislie all in the same group. Pedestrian arms that may or may not be servicable for all or part of the season.

Simply put, I dissagree with the premise that simply DFA'ing Eric Milton will cure our pitching woes. He should not be part of the rotation in 2007 in any form, but I'd rather see Krivsky go outside the orginization for another solid starting pitcher rather than hold the open cattle call that will likely not generate significantly better performance.

[Patrick Bateman]

What part of "I want to get rid of Milton too" don't you folks understand? It's not a matter of being afraid or obsessivley clinging to a failure or whatever other reasons you want want to give. I'd like to see him sent packing (hopefully for some value, no matter how slight). Out of the rotation. Not pitching for us. Gone. No longer a Red. Nowhere near a pitching mound. Not employed by the Reds. Not in the rotation. He's dead to me. Don't pitch for us. Be gone evil being. Clear enough?

My only point is that currently we have nobody on the staff that will give us the sorts of numbers I would call significant step forward. I agree that we've got some interesting arms but I don't have much faith that they are the saviors people have touted them to be. I'd lump Sarrloos, Livingston and Belislie all in the same group. Pedestrian arms that may or may not be servicable for all or part of the season.

Simply put, I dissagree with the premise that simply DFA'ing Eric Milton will cure our pitching woes. He should not be part of the rotation in 2007 in any form, but I'd rather see Krivsky go outside the orginization for another solid starting pitcher rather than hold the open cattle call that will likely not generate significantly better performance.

And how are we going to get another solid starter at this point? I'm sure Krivsky has tried, but that is easier said than done. I don't see teams offering those right now unless a guy like Bailey is on the table. At this point, the options are either Milton or the other guys we have left.

[Ltlabner]

And how are we going to get another solid starter at this point? I'm sure Krivsky has tried, but that is easier said than done. I don't see teams offering those right now unless a guy like Bailey is on the table. At this point, the options are either Milton or the other guys we have left.

I agree, but then again people said the same thing around the time when WMP went to Boston for BA. Just because it's hard doesn't mean it shouldn't be attempted (and likely has been on Wayne's 'todo' list for some time.)

Livingston, Belisle and Lizzard are the obvious route for the short term. Maybe one of them will step up, I doubt it, but it's possible.

[Dracodave]

Okay obvious upgrades from Milton?

A person who's going to rot in triple a but is deserving of a chance at the majors.

We have some trading chips to get those types of pitchers.
--------------------------------------------------------
Millwood feels the breeze too, however he isn't lying. 41 mph winds. (http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070327&content_id=1862073&vkey=spt2007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex)

[mth123]

Okay obvious upgrades from Milton?

A person who's going to rot in triple a but is deserving of a chance at the majors.

We have some trading chips to get those types of pitchers.

Absolutley. The reason I'm not hopping on the dump Milton bandwagon full speed is because the offseason was wasted bringing in has beens, retreads and weak armed never weres. If a compelling young pitcher or two was in the organization and ready to be developed for the 2009 run by pitching Milton's innings, I'd be begging to dump him. With the current cast of characters, the best help for 2009 would come from saving any money possible on Milton's deal and re-investing.

I'm not saying the Reds needed to sign Zito, but I was hoping for "under the Radar" types all offseason. The problem is Kirk Saarloos offers nothing. Livingston is a little better, but he is a little lower than even I was aiming. If he is of any value, he can be stashed at AAA while an attempt at a deal is made.

The Reds could have avoided this mess by saying goodbye to Lohse through trade or non-tender. A guy as bad as Milton would be removed from the rotation, opening a spot for the others and the $4 Million Savings would be the same as getting some one to eat half of Milton's deal.

As far as the next 5 to 15 or so starts from the Milton spot in the rotation, it makes little difference to me. IMO This team will struggle to win 70 games no matter which of these guys get the nod. I've written-off 2007 and as far as the future goes, money saved and re-invested looks to have more value than these other guys. The team is no worse off with Milton keeping a spot warm for Bailey (while the team tries to make a deal to salvage something) as it is with any of the others.

I do like Belisle though and want him to get the open spot. I don't care much if any of the others get a shot at this point. I still hold out hope that a compelling young arm can be acquired in a deal for Freel or Deno or even some veteran bullpen presence. If so, then I'm for cutting Milton with the new guy getting a shot.

[Dracodave]

I'm not saying the Reds needed to sign Zito, but I was hoping for "under the Radar" types all offseason. The problem is Kirk Saarloos offers nothing. Livingston is a little better, but he is a little lower than even I was aiming. If he is of any value, he can be stashed at AAA while an attempt at a deal is made.

The Reds could have avoided this mess by saying goodbye to Lohse through trade or non-tender. A guy as bad as Milton would be removed from the rotation, opening a spot for the others and the $4 Million Savings would be the same as getting some one to eat half of Milton's deal.

The Reds didn't have to look far for pitching at all.

IMO, Belisle is putting it together because he has a will/desire/"want" to be a starter. Ontop of that, I really think we should have gone for pitchers like Livingston that other teams soured on, banked on a year or two of sucess (rebuild through draft/trades in the mean time). I can honestly say I would have grabbed Brazado for that reason. I can say I would have tried to grab Loe from Texas who is now in middle relief or a pitcher in John Rheniecker who just needs a everyday job to be a decent 4/5. Solving the millions tied up in what will amount to more than a few crappy starts by both Lohse and Milton.

This team had options but instead we went with "what we had" cause "the cost was too high". I don't see that. Yusmerio Petite just went for Jorge Julio. The market is not that high on young starting pitcher, regardless of their projections.

[M2]

What part of "I want to get rid of Milton too" don't you folks understand?

The part where, after you say you want to get rid of him, you start inventing bogus rationales for keeping him.

No one's saying cutting Milton automatically cures the team's pitching woes, but we know that keeping him only entrenches the problems. Perhaps other pitchers will succeed. Milton won't.

[mth123]

The Reds didn't have to look far for pitching at all.

IMO, Belisle is putting it together because he has a will/desire/"want" to be a starter. Ontop of that, I really think we should have gone for pitchers like Livingston that other teams soured on, banked on a year or two of sucess (rebuild through draft/trades in the mean time). I can honestly say I would have grabbed Brazado for that reason. I can say I would have tried to grab Loe from Texas who is now in middle relief or a pitcher in John Rheniecker who just needs a everyday job to be a decent 4/5. Solving the millions tied up in what will amount to more than a few crappy starts by both Lohse and Milton.

This team had options but instead we went with "what we had" cause "the cost was too high". I don't see that. Yusmerio Petite just went for Jorge Julio. The market is not that high on young starting pitcher, regardless of their projections.

I liked Petit too (Marlins looking for CF help and now AZ for LH Relief). Also Carlos Marmol or Angel Guzman from Chicago (back when they were looking for a CF), or maybe Zach Miner from Detroit (also looking for LH relief), probably more out there.

[redsupport]

Tony Armas will outperform Milton easily

[Dracodave]

Tony Armas will outperform Milton easily

Sad but true. Thats been my point my entirely. Theres a ton of pitchers out there we could take the chance on, and drop miltons contract in the process.

Miltons dead weight and sunk cost at any turn. If inserting minor league "scrub pitcher x" saves us three games but doesn't hurt our chances at losing any more than Milton would. It's a chance I'd take.


I liked Petit too (Marlins looking for CF help and now AZ for LH Relief). Also Carlos Marmol or Angel Guzman from Chicago (back when they were looking for a CF), or maybe Zach Miner from Detroit (also looking for LH relief), probably more out there.

I'd give up a nice little package for Zach Miner, or Andrew Miller from Detriot. Whichever they preferred to send me.

I'd also be looking into pitchers with confidence level issues, put them in a situation like the one we're in, where we're not "percieved as a threat" and let them regain some confidence.

Theres more than one way to plug holes, but it appears wasting nine million dollars and 10 to 15 loses on a single pitcher alone is :thumbup:.

[mth123]

I'd give up a nice little package for Zach Miner, or Andrew Miller from Detriot. Whichever they preferred to send me.

I think you'd have a hard time getting Miller. But Miner is probably obtainable if we have something they think could be the missing piece. They don't need much, but could use LH Bullpen help.

[Dracodave]

I think you'd have a hard time getting Miller. But Miner is probably obtainable if we have something they think could be the missing piece. They don't need much, but could use LH Bullpen help.

Shhh don't ruin my wish! :p:

And yeah thats what I was getting at. If it takes a trade like the Astro's made for Jennings to get a decent young starter for years to come. (Miner or Millers case) You do it.

Detriot gets
Cormier/Shackleford
Cueto
-Prospect of their liking not named Bailey or Bruce.

Cincinnati Gets
Zach Miner
Marcus Thames.

Those are deals you do, anything added in is a added bonus. I hate giving up a Cueto but for a Zach Miner type pitcher. I'd do it. MLB ready and under control, I'd give up players for.

[mth123]

Shhh don't ruin my wish! :p:

And yeah thats what I was getting at. If it takes a trade like the Astro's made for Jennings to get a decent young starter for years to come. (Miner or Millers case) You do it.

Detriot gets
Cormier/Shackleford
Cueto
-Prospect of their liking not named Bailey or Bruce.

Cincinnati Gets
Zach Miner
Marcus Thames.

Those are deals you do, anything added in is a added bonus. I hate giving up a Cueto but for a Zach Miner type pitcher. I'd do it. MLB ready and under control, I'd give up players for.

I don't think Cueto would need to be included. I'm guessing Cormier and maybe a Dumatrait. Cormier fills the LH bullpen role on the big league team and Dumatrait provides a guy to take his spot at AAA. Miner's not going to be much more than a number 4 if he works out. But a cheap and competent number 4 for the next few years would be a good upgrade IMO. I can't see him ever getting a shot in Detroit unless a bunch of guys go down. I wouldn't include Cueto for him BTW.

[Dracodave]

Good point. I didnt read his scouting report till a second ago. I figure he'll have a few years of posting #3 type stats, then level out at #4 stats.

[Ravenlord]

At this point, the options are either Milton or the other guys we have left.

i'd wager that at least half of Matt Belisle, Phil Dumatrait, Bobby Livingston, Brian Shackelford (yes, even him), Homer Bailey, Michael Gosling, Jason Kershner, Victor Santos, and Tom Shearn can/will outperform Eric Milton given the same # of starts.

[Ltlabner]

The part where, after you say you want to get rid of him, you start inventing bogus rationales for keeping him..

Well, that's your construct, not mine.

I don't think pointing out that the current inhouse options are likely to give you low 5's instead of high 5's/low 6's ERA's is "bogus". Looking at their past track records there is little to suggest they will magically double and triple their previous workloads while greatly improving on their poor performances. Of course there is a chance they could suddenly put it all together, have their health issues dissapaear and give us solid work. But how big of a chance is it really? Wouldn't an established guy who's actually shown some success have a better chance for sucesss

Isn't that what you've always told us, go with the option with the highest probability of sucess? Why should now be any different?

If no trades can be pulled off, we'll have to go with what we have. At that point, obviously, we'll either have to start Milton or Belisle/Livingston/Lizzard. I'd go with any of the three (although I am not a fan of Belisle) over Milton at that point.

[M2]

Well, that's your construct, not mine.

I don't think pointing out that the current inhouse options are likely to give you low 5's instead of high 5's/low 6's ERA's is "bogus".

The bogus part is using that as a reason to keep a guy you know will be awful. Just because you're not sure what the right answer is that's not a reason to stick with what you know to be the wrong the answer.

Unknown solution > known wrong answer

And you're not there. The construct you've created here is to say you don't want Milton around, but then invent reasons for keeping him around. If you truly acknowledge that he can't do the job then you pretty much have to be against giving him the job.

[BRM]

John Fay doesn't think the Reds will cut him at this point.



As for the debate, the Eric Milton post struck a nerve. Let me just say the Reds are acutely aware that they're dealing with PR problem. But I don't think they'll eat a $9 million contract to solve it -- at least not out of spring training.

So let's move on.

[KronoRed]

I have a fear that he won't stink enough for the Reds to cut him (example his era will be 5.99 instead of 6) and he'll blow up in the 5th spot all year.

[Ltlabner]

The bogus part is using that as a reason to keep a guy you know will be awful. Just because you're not sure what the right answer is that's not a reason to stick with what you know to be the wrong the answer.

Unknown solution > known wrong answer

And you're not there. The construct you've created here is to say you don't want Milton around, but then invent reasons for keeping him around. If you truly acknowledge that he can't do the job then you pretty much have to be against giving him the job.

Am I typing in German or something? I AM AGAINST GIVING HIM THE JOB. I am in 100% agreement that the best way for Milton to help the team at this point is to not pitch. I don't want to see Milton on the mound in 2007 in the 4th, 5th or 15th pitching spot. My fealings that Livingston/Belisle/Lizzard are not the long term soultion, in no way implies, hints, or is connected to (in any shape form or fashion) the idea Milton should pitch for the Reds.

I really don't know how to make it any more clear that those are two different thoughts (1) Milton Shouldn't Pitch (2a) I'm not sure Belisle/Livingston/Lizzard are the answer (2b) baring a trade you have to go with one of those three guys.

[M2]

Am I typing in German or something? I AM AGAINST GIVING HIM THE JOB. I am in 100% agreement that the best way for Milton to help the team at this point is to not pitch. I don't want to see Milton on the mound in 2007 in the 4th, 5th or 15th pitching spot. My fealings that Livingston/Belisle/Lizzard are not the long term soultion, in no way implies, hints, or is connected to (in any shape form or fashion) the idea Milton should pitch for the Reds.

I really don't know how to make it any more clear that those are two different thoughts (1) Milton Shouldn't Pitch (2a) I'm not sure Belisle/Livingston/Lizzard are the answer (2b) baring a trade you have to go with one of those three guys.

Sorry, I was reading your statements about not just DFAing him for the visceral thrill, trying to get someone to eat part of his conract, questioning whether anyone on hand was ready to do a sound job in his stead and casting a dim view on incremental improvement as reasons for keeping Milton ensconced to start the season. My bad.

[flyer85]

With his history of knee problems, he will continue to give up home runs.... add in some off-season elbow surgery and throw in a dose of being an extreme flyball pitcher then mix with GABP and you end up with an acute case of gopherballitis.

[Eric_Davis]

If the REDS' doctors and managerial staff think Milton is healthy enough to start the 4th game of the year against the Pirates, then he's healthy enough to be a functional #4 starter.

If he plays in that game, he'll probably win it.

[BRM]

If the REDS' doctors and managerial staff think Milton is healthy enough to start the 4th game of the year against the Pirates, then he's healthy enough to be a functional #4 starter.

If he plays in that game, he'll probably win it.

The Reds may win but I'll be surprised if Milton gets the W.

[Eric_Davis]

Milton is also better than the Astros #4 Starter Wandy Gonzalez. If they were to face each other, Milton would win.

[Eric_Davis]

The Reds may win but I'll be surprised if Milton gets the W.

If he pitches well enough not to get the loss and allow the REDS to win, it's still a win.

Again, if he's healthy. I have my doubts about him being healthy.

[BRM]

Milton is also better than the Astros #4 Starter Wandy Gonzalez. If they were to face each other, Milton would win.

Awesome. You've identified one pitcher Milton can outduel.

[Eric_Davis]

The Reds may win but I'll be surprised if Milton gets the W.
His job isn't to get the win. His job is to pitch well enough for the REDS to get the win.

[BRM]

If he pitches well enough not to get the loss and allow the REDS to win, it's still a win.

Again, if he's healthy. I have my doubts about him being healthy.

He could give up 7 runs in 3 innings and not get the loss if the Reds are hot that day. It won't mean he did his job.

[Eric_Davis]

Awesome. You've identified one pitcher Milton can outduel.
The list is long. I just wanted to point out another in our division.

[Eric_Davis]

He could give up 7 runs in 3 innings and not get the loss if the Reds are hot that day. It won't mean he did his job. Odds of that happening are 1-50. Again, it doesn't matter. He does his job if the team wins.

[M2]

If the REDS' doctors and managerial staff think Milton is healthy enough to start the 4th game of the year against the Pirates, then he's healthy enough to be a functional #4 starter.

If he plays in that game, he'll probably win it.

Unless of course Pittsburgh brings its A-ballers. Then, apparently, Milton will be raked. Mind you, against the major league Pirates the past three seasons Milton is 1-3, 7.75, so you're probably better off counting that as a three-headed hell chicken before it hatches.

No one with a 5.00+ ERA is a functional anything. I'll mention this once again, because it can't be said enough - Milton's the worst pitcher in franchise history. How that became "functional" eludes me.

[Eric_Davis]

Too many people just like to hate for hating sake. Milton's an average #4 starter...no better...no worse.

[BRM]

The list is long. I just wanted to point out another in our division.

I fully expect Milton to post and ERA between 5.50 and 6.00 if given the starts. I find it hard to believe that most teams are running #4 starters out there with the potential of posting a 6.00 ERA.

[Eric_Davis]

Unless of course Pittsburgh brings its A-ballers. Then, apparently, Milton will be raked. Mind you, against the major league Pirates the past three seasons Milton is 1-3, 7.75, so you're probably better off counting that as a three-headed hell chicken before it hatches.

No one with a 5.00+ ERA is a functional anything. I'll mention this once again, because it can't be said enough - Milton's the worst pitcher in franchise history. How that became "functional" eludes me.

You're dead wrong M2. a 5.00+ ERA is functional as a 4th or 5th starter in either league. All the statistics in the world back that up.

[Ltlabner]

Sorry, I was reading your statements about not just DFAing him for the visceral thrill, trying to get someone to eat part of his conract, questioning whether anyone on hand was ready to do a sound job in his stead and casting a dim view on incremental improvement as reasons for keeping Milton ensconced to start the season. My bad.

I'll let it slide...this time. :p:

I think all of those things are valid discussion topics and make for interesting debate. But no, my opinion has changed from last year, to the begining of spring training, to after the Pittsburg debacle. Milton must go. At the very least, he needs to be in AAA seeing if he can pitch from the bullpen (but I highly doubt if that will happen, or if he can).

At the begining of ST I was willing to see what happened in the hopes he'd be healthy but it's rather clear at this point that isn't the case (esp post Pittsburg debacle). And even if he is healthy the chances of him being productive depend on a whole lot of 'if's' falling into place.

If we can get someone to eat some of his contract we should go for it, however slight the amount or suspect the return. More than likely, however, that isn't going to happen and I'm cool with eating the contract.

I doubt the current inhouse options will give us much more than a modest improvement over Milton, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do it. (replace Milton with Belisle/Livingston/Lizzard).

[BRM]

You're dead wrong M2. a 5.00+ ERA is functional as a 4th or 5th starter in either league. All the statistics in the world back that up.

Based on the numbers in your #4 starter thread, the average #4 is in the low 5's. Again, I fully expect him to be above 5.50 this year if given the starts.

[M2]

You're dead wrong M2. a 5.00+ ERA is functional as a 4th or 5th starter in either league. All the statistics in the world back that up.

No, it's dysfunctional. Now, there's plenty of dysfunctional pitchers out there. I just don't subscribe to having the team I root for send them out to the mound on a regular basis. The point is to be a good team, not to suck because others suck too. I couldn't give a toss if Milton compares to Scott Elarton. A team would be stupid to put either one in the rotation.

The average starter in the NL over the last five seasons (which is a number already weighed down by a ton of garbage) is 4.41. If you can't be within 10% of that, 4.85, then don't even think about tossing around the term "functional."

Worst pitcher in franchise history and it's not even close.

[Dracodave]

The list is long. I just wanted to point out another in our division.

Pitchers Eric Milton could out duel.

Wandy Rod.
Gil Meche.
Jason Marquis.
Scott Elarton.
Gary Majewski.


I'm sure you could name other starts but the problem is, the pitchers he can't outduel. Thats even longer, and alot of those pitchers suck too.

[Patrick Bateman]

Pitchers Eric Milton could out duel.

Wandy Rod.
Gil Meche.
Jason Marquis.
Scott Elarton.
Gary Majewski.


I'm sure you could name other starts but the problem is, the pitchers he can't outduel. Thats even longer, and alot of those pitchers suck too.

I think you are being far too kind. Majewski and Meche are far better pitchers than Milton, and I'd even take Marquis over him. At least he has only had 1 putrid season as opposed to 3.

[registerthis]

Too many people just like to hate for hating sake.

i don't hate.

I yearn...for Milton to be out of the rotation. That's all.

[Eric_Davis]

Based on the numbers in your #4 starter thread, the average #4 is in the low 5's. Again, I fully expect him to be above 5.50 this year if given the starts.

Let me ask both you and M2 this? Do you think his problems are injury-related? Do you think he's injured? If he's injured, do you think the REDS know that he is? Also, do you think he'd pitch at around 4.50 if he wasn't injured?

[dougdirt]

The average starter in the NL over the last five seasons (which is a number already weighed down by a ton of garbage) is 4.41. If you can't be within 10% of that, 4.85, then don't even think about tossing around the term "functional."

Worst pitcher in franchise history and it's not even close.
Over the last 5 years, given 17 starts in a season 94 pitchers posted an ERA of 4.85 or higher. That is roughly 19 pitchers a season, or slightly more than 1 per NL team who is not functional. Its not a Reds problem, its a league problem. Not many teams can boast 5 starters with ERA's under 4.50.

2002-2006, 219 pitchers started 17 or more games and had an ERA under 4.50. That works out to 2.75 pitchers per team in the NL. Sure, injuries play into those numbers some, but you act as if teams across the board have solid pitching to throw out 1-5 in the rotation, and that simply isnt close to being true.

[Eric_Davis]

That's exactly my point, dougdirt. It is reasonable to expect your #4 starter to have an ERA of 5.00. That's acceptable because the majority of clubs face the same thing.

As pointed out, there are only 2.75 pitchers available per team who can start at least 17 games and have an ERA of 4.50 or less. If the Yankees, RedSox, Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Padres, White Sox, and others who have more money to spend than the REDS do sign 3 or 4 of these guys, then 2 might be a more realistic number to expect for the REDS.

[dougdirt]

That's exactly my point, dougdirt. It reasonable to expect your #4 starter to have an ERA of 5.00. That's acceptable because the majority of clubs face the same thing.

As pointed out, there are only 2.75 pitchers available per team who can start at least 17 games and have an ERA of 4.50 or less. If the Yankees, RedSox, Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Padres, White Sox, and others who have more money to spend than the REDS do, then 2 might be a more realistic number to expect for the REDS.

Those numbers were for NL teams only.

[Dracodave]

Let me ask both you and M2 this? Do you think his problems are injury-related? Do you think he's injured? If he's injured, do you think the REDS know that he is? Also, do you think he'd pitch at around 4.50 if he wasn't injured?

Milton's been pitching on a bum knee with a bum elbow for two years straight.

Yet he didn't back down from his contract this year because we "can contend".

Guess what Eric? You slightly ruin those chances to contend. You're not the full problem, but a very easily seen problem. Theres more than just you wrong with this team..but those other problems don't give up 5 homeruns to single a batters.

[Eric_Davis]

ChipR's Hot Stove League report a few minutes ago summed up what the majority here feel....that Milton has nothing left. The hope last fall that rest over the winter would heal any injuries doesn't seem to have come to fruition.

As one pointed out...the answer, and hope, is going to be that Milton pitches at a 60% quality start rate (FWIW, only 11 NL pitchers achieved that ratio last year of those that had at least 14 quality starts) the first two months of the year, and then he'll have interest from other clubs.


Also, FWIW, Milton had a 3.76 ERA last year the first time through a lineup. This covered 55 innings pitched last year. Maybe he could have some success as a long reliever this year.

[M2]

Over the last 5 years, given 17 starts in a season 94 pitchers posted an ERA of 4.85 or higher. That is roughly 19 pitchers a season, or slightly more than 1 per NL team who is not functional. Its not a Reds problem, its a league problem. Not many teams can boast 5 starters with ERA's under 4.50.

2002-2006, 219 pitchers started 17 or more games and had an ERA under 4.50. That works out to 2.75 pitchers per team in the NL. Sure, injuries play into those numbers some, but you act as if teams across the board have solid pitching to throw out 1-5 in the rotation, and that simply isnt close to being true.

I understand it's a league problem, but when you start comparing your staff to teams with exactly zero decent pitchers then you've begun to engage in a futile exercise. Are you trying to be the Colorado Rockies most seasons? In fact, 42 of those 94 bad pitchers you listed toiled for the Rockies, Reds, Pirates and Brewers. It means the other 12 teams in the NL average less than one a season. And sometimes what happens is you get a team like last year's Nationals where everything goes to hell and you get four bad pitchers at once.

The 2.75 good pitchers per team is not distributed evenly. Your bottom five staffs in the NL might have less than one of those pitchers on average. That means about five other teams have three and the your better staffs, roughly six teams, have four. That's the way the distribution works out. I'm advocating for the Reds to be like the better staffs, not the lesser ones. In fact, if you want to win a division, then four guys who fill that bill is what you had better be aiming for. Carrying a guy like Milton means you've got to go four for four with the rest of the staff. He automatically puts you in harm's way.

That also doesn't take into account a lot of partial seasons. You might have a callup or a guy who came over in trade or a guy who gets injured only get 10-16 starts for you, but they could be in the sub-4.50 category (e.g. Francisco Liriano last season). In fact you could have a few guys like that who combine to give you what amounts to a good pitcher.

In 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004 combined the Reds had exactly three pitchers start at least 17 games with an ERA of 4.50 or less. In the past seven seasons they've had 10 total pitchers reach that level. The Reds have been one of those teams dragging down the average. I think people have gotten so used to the pitching staff being epidemically bad that now 5.00 looks normal to them when it's really still a measure of an awful pitcher.

I even allowed for wiggle room up to 4.85 (10% behind the league average ERA over the last five seasons) for a measurement of "functional." Can you get five pitchers under that? You bet you can. Resigning yourself to less is just silly.

[westofyou]

Those numbers were for NL teams only.

Here's the jokers in that group who have done it twice in that span



NATIONAL LEAGUE
2002-2006
ALL POSITIONS
ERA >= 4.85
GAMES STARTED >= 17


T1 Shawn Estes 3
T1 Jamey Wright 3
T1 Oliver Perez 3
T1 Jason Jennings 3
T1 Josh Fogg 3
T6 Brandon Duckworth 2
T6 Victor Santos 2
T6 Ryan Dempster 2
T6 Eric Milton 2
T6 Wandy Rodriguez 2
T6 Byung-Hyun Kim 2
T6 Tony Armas Jr. 2
T6 Jason Marquis 2
T6 Ramon Ortiz 2

Here are the Reds who have done it more then once


1 Herm Wehmeier 3
T2 Jose Acevedo 2
T2 John Smiley 2
T2 Jim O'Toole 2
T2 Si Johnson 2
T2 Eric Milton 2

Again here are the worst pitchers in Reds franchise history in ERA vs the league


GAMES STARTED >= 25

ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE GS
1 Ryan Dempster -2.17 6.39 4.21 35
2 Kevin Jarvis -2.00 6.21 4.21 34
3 Eric Milton -1.55 5.89 4.35 60
4 Jay Hook -1.38 5.23 3.85 56
5 Charlie Puleo -1.37 5.00 3.63 28
6 Jose Acevedo -1.28 5.59 4.31 54
7 Herm Wehmeier -1.25 5.25 4.00 148
8 Ramon Ortiz -1.13 5.36 4.23 30
9 John Roper -1.09 5.23 4.14 32
10 Jack Armstrong -.94 4.61 3.68 72

Eric Milton is giving Herm Wehmeier a run for his money.

Eric Milton is to the Reds what that spoiled sandwich Homer Simpson took from a company picnic was to his trip to Duff Gardens.

Homer: Marge, I'd like to be alone with the sandwich for a moment.
Marge: Are you going to eat it?
Homer: ...Yes.

[VR]

I thought we were trading Homer for one of those guys?

[Eric_Davis]

M2 and WestOfYou, those are telling numbers. It's nice to see us trending away from those as we look to have possibly 3 or 4 starters this year in the sub-4.50 w/ 17 starters category. Saarloos, Lohse, Harang and Arroyo, and who knows, maybe Livingston. I agree with you that it's highly unlikely, barring a medical miracle, that Milton will sniff that level of production.

No matter how much money he makes, I can't see the new ownership and Krivsky putting out a guy every week to start that's carrying an ERA of 6.00+, and I also don't think they'll have to leave Milton out there even if he's around 5.50 as we now have guys capable of being given a shot at starting.

What a horrible time that was...2000-2004. The REDS lost a lot of fans during that time.