2007 Ken Griffey Jr. Predictions

[Degenerate39]

I think Griff will have 32 homers this year and play most of the year.

[rotnoid]

I'd take 32 HR's and about 90 RBI. The most important thing though will be if he plays 135+ games.

[Always Red]

OK, I'll say it: 15 HR's, 62 RBI, and 117 games played.

I love JR, but his legs are gone...

[fewfirstchoice]

122 games played
37 homers
107 RBIs
296 avg.
4 errors
7 outfield assits
2 stolen bases

[justincredible]

123 games, 28 HRs, 89 RBIs

[pahster]

.260/.330/.480/.810-ish.

[Eric_Davis]

.260/.330/.480/.810-ish.

Ditto

[paintmered]

89 games
.272 AVG
.326 OBP
.482 SLG
16 HR
54 RBI
3 MRIs

All this makes me very sad. :(

[flyer85]

89 games
.272 AVG
.326 OBP
.482 SLG
16 HR
54 RBI
3 MRIs

All this makes me very sad. :(seems rather realistic giving his recent history.

I know optimism is high coming in to a new season, that's why I like to look at data that isn't biased by fan loyalty.

PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG

[mth123]

seems rather realistic giving his recent history.

I know optimism is high coming in to a new season, that's why I like to look at data that isn't biased by fan loyalty.

PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG

That looks about right but the rate stats are really volatile here. If those 415 ABs come while playing against everyone until he breaks down I think .275/.344 are a bit high and I wonder about the .506. If Griffey plays strictly against RH while "rested" against LH, he could top those.

[flyer85]

with Deno gone it seems pretty safe to assume that Jr will be out there everyday.

[mth123]

with Deno gone it seems pretty safe to assume that Jr will be out there everyday.

sigh. I feel awful about Deno and the Reds are really short on the bench. The worst part is that it eliminates any hope of a Deno or Freel for a decent pitcher deal. Oh well, at least they could keep Coutlangus. That is one more decent pitcher getting innings than I was counting on.

[AtomicDumpling]

"PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG"

I think the rate stats here are a little high. My guess is .270BA .320OBP and .470SLG.

I think he won't hit too many doubles and that will suppress his SLG%.

415AB seems reasonable, 21HR seems reasonable, and I would guess 80RBI since he will probably bat 4th. He would get more RBI if Phillips bats 5th and Encarnacion 3rd instead of the way Narron has it lined up now.

Griffey will be a below average right fielder, but he was a horrible center fielder in recent years. So the move to right field is way overdue.

As far as getting a good pitcher for Freel -- I don't think that will happen. Freel is popular here for his hustle and grit, but I don't think his stats would merit any team offering us a good pitcher in exchange. He is getting old and his speed and defense are vastly overrated here in Cincy. Last year will turn out to be his career year. I hope I am wrong.

I am excited to see Hamilton play in person. I get the feeling we may see a lot of him due to Freel/Griffey injuries. He could be the out-of-nowhere shot in the arm of 2007 like Brandon Phillips was in 2006. (Maybe I shouldn't use "shot in the arm" and Josh Hamilton in the same sentence?) :doh:

[jmac]

OK, I'll say it: 15 HR's, 62 RBI, and 117 games played.

I love JR, but his legs are gone...

"if" JR plays 117 games I would say the #'s should be slightly higher.
Maybe 28/75.

[mth123]

"PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG"

I think the rate stats here are a little high. My guess is .270BA .320OBP and .470SLG.

I think he won't hit too many doubles and that will suppress his SLG%.

415AB seems reasonable, 21HR seems reasonable, and I would guess 80RBI since he will probably bat 4th. He would get more RBI if Phillips bats 5th and Encarnacion 3rd instead of the way Narron has it lined up now.

Griffey will be a below average right fielder, but he was a horrible center fielder in recent years. So the move to right field is way overdue.

As far as getting a good pitcher for Freel -- I don't think that will happen. Freel is popular here for his hustle and grit, but I don't think his stats would merit any team offering us a good pitcher in exchange. He is getting old and his speed and defense are vastly overrated here in Cincy. Last year will turn out to be his career year. I hope I am wrong.

I am excited to see Hamilton play in person. I get the feeling we may see a lot of him due to Freel/Griffey injuries. He could be the out-of-nowhere shot in the arm of 2007 like Brandon Phillips was in 2006. (Maybe I shouldn't use "shot in the arm" and Josh Hamilton in the same sentence?) :doh:

I guess my idea of a good pitcher is different than most and used somewhat loosely in this context. I don't think Freel could bring an established number 3 starter, but I think he could bring a compelling young arm or two. Some one with more upside than say a Kirk Saarloos or Bobby Livingston. Maybe a young guy with promise who has been squeezed out by a team spending on free agents or an undervalued guy stuck in some team's pen. It won't take much to be an upgrade over anyone not named Harang, Arroyo or Bailey right now. I'm just looking for hopeful as opposed to hopeless (Milton or Lohse) or wishful (Livingston or Saarloos). Belisle makes me hopeful somewhat but it would be nice to get some one like him w/o the injury concerns.

[AtomicDumpling]

OK mth123, that makes sense. I am new here so I still need to learn how people here think. I thought maybe you were one of the people in Cincy that thinks Freel is the best player on the Reds. LOL

I think Freel could be traded for someone similar to Saarloos. A decent pitcher from a team loaded with better options. Saarloos' situation reminds me of Arroyo with the Red Sox. I am sure Saarloos will not do as well as Arroyo did last year, but you could find a lot of things in Saarloos' career history that are eerily similar to Arroyo's. They both played for two teams prior to the Reds. Both of them were jettisoned because they were thought to be not good enough. Arroyo was released by the Pirates, Saarloos by the Athletics (although they re-signed him later). I have more hope for Saarloos than for either Milton or Lohse.

Reds fans seem optimistic for Lohse due to his limited duty with the Reds last year and the positive comments Narron makes about him. They should check Lohse's poor career stats.

I agree with you that Belisle is the Reds' best hope for the future in terms of being a solid member of the rotation. Maybe Elizardo Ramirez too eventually. And Homer obviously.

The Twins have been good in the past about picking up good talent out of other organizations stockpiles (ex. Johan Santana, a former Rule 5 pick). Hopefully some of that was due to Krivsky, or maybe he at least learned how to do it while with the Twins. Maybe Wayne can work some magic and get a good pitcher on the cusp of success in exhange for Freel or Cormier or even Hamilton. I must say I nearly lost all faith in Krivsky after the Washington boondoggle.

[tripleaaaron]

Im going 130 games
34 HR
95 RBI
.280 AVG

[Reds1]

122 games played
37 homers
107 RBIs
296 avg.
4 errors
7 outfield assits
2 stolen bases

I'd take that and a box of chocolates all freakin day! Here's to thinking the best for Griffey. I say 28 HRS 91 RBIs.

[mth123]

OK mth123, that makes sense. I am new here so I still need to learn how people here think. I thought maybe you were one of the people in Cincy that thinks Freel is the best player on the Reds. LOL

I think Freel could be traded for someone similar to Saarloos. A decent pitcher from a team loaded with better options. Saarloos' situation reminds me of Arroyo with the Red Sox. I am sure Saarloos will not do as well as Arroyo did last year, but you could find a lot of things in Saarloos' career history that are eerily similar to Arroyo's. They both played for two teams prior to the Reds. Both of them were jettisoned because they were thought to be not good enough. Arroyo was released by the Pirates, Saarloos by the Athletics (although they re-signed him later). I have more hope for Saarloos than for either Milton or Lohse.

Reds fans seem optimistic for Lohse due to his limited duty with the Reds last year and the positive comments Narron makes about him. They should check Lohse's poor career stats.

I agree with you that Belisle is the Reds' best hope for the future in terms of being a solid member of the rotation. Maybe Elizardo Ramirez too eventually. And Homer obviously.

The Twins have been good in the past about picking up good talent out of other organizations stockpiles (ex. Johan Santana, a former Rule 5 pick). Hopefully some of that was due to Krivsky, or maybe he at least learned how to do it while with the Twins. Maybe Wayne can work some magic and get a good pitcher on the cusp of success in exhange for Freel or Cormier or even Hamilton. I must say I nearly lost all faith in Krivsky after the Washington boondoggle.

Sounds like we're mostly on the same wavelength, but I am not high on Saarloos at all and lump him with Lohse and Milton as guys who are likely to have an ERA near 6. Saarloos K/9 was only 3.86, his BB/9 was on the high side at 3.93 and his HR per 9 was very high 1.41. I just can't be optimistic about a guy who walks more than he Ks and gives up that many HR. I understand about him being a ground ball pitcher and all, but the doesn't do much for me. Ground balls are more likely to become hits than fly balls and with all the homers allowed it seems like the whole ground ball thing isn't really an asset when he gives up that many HR. Many have raved about the movement on his pitches, but the stats show that not many people are chasing those pitches (low K rate), his best pitch frequently isn't a strike (high Walk rate) and after he gets behind in the count he grooves too many pitches when he needs a strike (high HR rate). Throw in a move from a pitchers park that helps him in Oakland to one of the best hitters park around these days in Cincinnati and I could see those HRs going even higher (add in division road parks in Houston and Chicago instead of the Big A and Seattle for good measure).

[Always Red]

Im going 130 games
34 HR
95 RBI
.280 AVG

That'd be a great year for Junior; if he does that, this team might win the division?? I know the pitching needs to be right also, but that would be solid production from the LF and RF spots, assuming Dunn does what he usually does.

[coachw513]

125 games
.280/28/94