Gonelong's 6th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

[gonelong]

Lurkers, not a better time to make your first post!

Ok, time for Gonelong's 6th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1) Lets scrap the "range" idea we have been working on and just post a number of Ws.
2) Lets make our prediction as if your house was being bet on it. (Please no 162 Ws, etc ? we have other threads available for this)
3) I will be **AT** the game this year, thanks to my brother! Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone consensus".

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2007 - RZ Ws: Acutal: PTHG:
2006 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic
2005 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic
2004 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

I realize there is a VERY similar thread on the board at this time. Feel free to ignore this one, I won't be put out either way.

My prediction for 2007 prediction of Reds Wins is 82 Ws.

GL

[RFS62]

84 wins

[NatiRedGals]

I perdict 85 wins!

[HumnHilghtFreel]

81 on the mark

[DannyB]

89 Wins!!!

[paintmered]

77 wins.

[Redhook]

82 wins

[NDReds]

82 Wins

[Always Red]

80 wins

[Shaggy Sanchez]

70 wins

[BuckWoody]

79 wins.

[Reds Fanatic]

80 wins

[RedsManRick]

77 Wins

[dabvu2498]

78 wins

[MrCinatit]

80 wins.

[Red Leader]

83 W's

[Heath]

All the good numbers are taken.

I'm going for 83 due to the fact of the absence of a 12 game Western Swing. Those 83 wins might win the division. (We know what happened last year to the NL Central winner)

[Sean_CaseyRules]

85 W's for the team this year! I really think we can do it.

[MartyFan]

85 wins

[WMR]

90 wins

[OnBaseMachine]

86 wins.

[EddieMilner]

75 Wins

[bucksfan2]

80

[RollyInRaleigh]

83 wins.

[cincy09]

87 wins.

[Redsland]

76 wins.

[BRM]

77 wins.

[Johnny Footstool]

96 Wins.

The moon is in the seventh house, and Jupiter aligns with Mars.

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

88 Wins!

[Red Leader]

96 Wins.

The moon is in the seventh house, and Jupiter aligns with Mars.

This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius? :dunno:

Didn't know that. If so, I agree, although I'll go 95 wins.

[Johnny Footstool]

This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius? :dunno:

Didn't know that. If so, I agree, although I'll go 95 wins.

Actually, "The 40 Year Old Virgin" was on last night, and I can't get that song out of my head.

[rdiersin]

78 wins

[Red Leader]

Actually, "The 40 Year Old Virgin" was on last night, and I can't get that song out of my head.

Oh, well, in that case, I'm going back to my 83 wins. :laugh:

:bash:


Just a little more time is all we're asking for
Cause just a little more time could open closing doors
Just a little uncertainty can bring you down
And nobody wants to know you now
And nobody wants to show you how
So if you're lost and on your own
You can never surrender
And if your path won't lead you home
You can never surrender
And when the night is cold and dark
You can see, you can see light
Cause no-one can take away your right
To fight and never surrender

[Falls City Beer]

75 wins

[Puffy]

77

[TRF]

94 wins.

Somebody in that rotation is going to surprise the hell out of everybody. That somebody just might be Matt Belisle.

[marcshoe]

162 wins.

Would you believe 102?

How about 85 if they get Milton out of the rotation early enough?

[Joseph]

84

Cause no one picked it yet.

[Cyclone792]

79 wins.

[westofyou]

84

[deltachi8]

74...too many holes in the rotation.

[lollipopcurve]

80-82 -- age and injury will wear them down and thin the ranks in the second half

[Joseph]

By the way, if we have another non-winning year, I'm making the suggestion that we get someone new to start this thread next season. :)

Gonelong has to be bad luck or something.

Totally kidding.

Maybe.

This is baseball we are talking about.

Superstitions and all.

[M2]

76 wins

[dfs]

This team could win 93 games. This team could lose 93 games. I'll go with 82.

[Raisor]

82 1/2 wins

[zman]

84 wins

[vaticanplum]

82 wins.

[Highlifeman21]

72 Wins

[edabbs44]

72 wins.

[Jefferson24]

81

[texasdave]

Adam Dunn's career year (.975+ OPS) and a better bullpen leads the Reds to 88 wins.

[pedro]

83

[Hands22]

76 wins.

[Jaycint]

83 wins.

[LincolnparkRed]

84 with a second place finish in the division

[SirFelixCat]

87 Wins!

[KronoRed]

79 wins

[CRedsLarkin11]

83 wins

[Danny Serafini]

82-80

[reds44]

85 wins

[IowaRed]

I think Dunn is going to have a career year also, but nobody on the pitching staff will. 76-86

[MWM]

69 wins. The starting pitching is just too bad.

[Caveat Emperor]

79 Wins

Subtract 1 additional win for each week Milton remains a member of the rotation.

[RichRed]

82 wins.

[Roy Tucker]

80 wins.

I believe this team is better than the 2006 Reds, but I think the '06 Reds were a little lucky. They'll be better in 2008.

[Degenerate39]

81 wins

[Tom Servo]

84 wins

[Strikes Out Looking]

85 wins--second in division behind Milwaukee.

[oneupper]

80 Wins with a pythag of 84

The team will stumble out of the gate and recover when it is meaningless.

[BRM]

The team will stumble out of the gate and recover when it is meaningless.

So, the opposite of last year?

[coachw513]

85...

88 would get them into the playoffs...

[Ravenlord]

74 wins

[top6]

77 wins

[redsfan30]

84

[Gunner44]

88 wins and a big year from dunn

[membengal]

82 wins. Two tiny steps forward. Made even more palatable by Votto and Bailey coming up after the All-Star Break...

[letsgojunior]

75 wins.

[redsfanmia]

72 wins

[oneupper]

So, the opposite of last year?

Yeah, but I'm really lousy at predictions. My NCAA bracket should be good for last place. My final four are all out.

[Brown07]

87 wins

[boognish]

76 wins.

[mth123]

69 wins. A late season push from Votto and Hamilton pick-up the pace enough to avoid 100 losses.

[StillFunkyB]

I'm going to go out on a limb...

92

Would be nice.

[nmculbreth]

72 wins.

[rotnoid]

I'll go with last year's 80. This team improved defensively, but the offense is worse off, IMO.

Here's to another pennant race.

[alloverjr]

79 W's

[User Name]

84 wins

[Ron Madden]

If everything goes just right 89 wins if not could be 72 wins.

While trying to block Narron and the 12 man pitching staff outta my head...... I'll get all giddy and say 84 wins in 2007. ;)

After listening to Narron on 3/29 pre game show I'm not so giddy.

The lose of Deno and the type of players/pitchers that Jerry values has brought my optimism crashing down like a ton of bricks.

I change my prediction to 75 wins in 2007. God I hope I'm wrong!

[FlightRick]

The limp-wristed, lilly-livered, spineless twit in me thinks that the people who have posted that These Reds could potentially win 95 games or lose 95 games are dead-on....

The cocksure pundit in me, however, is assuming you can count on management to do things "by the book" (no surprises, no outrighting Milton, no adding massive payroll, just working with what we got for six months), and is confident in two observations:

(1) The 2007 Reds are a marginally better team than the 2006 Reds
(2) There is no rational basis for assuming the 2007 NL Central will be as easily beatable as the 2006 NL Central was

Process and synthesize, and I think we're good for maybe a 3-5 game net loss versus last year. I have always been partial to the number 7, so let's pick towards the optimistic end of the Pragmatism Spectrum:

77 wins.

[shredda2000]

85 wins...good enough for 3rd place (again) in the NL Central

[bucksfan]

I'm in for 84 with a 10% error range ;)

[JaxRed]

Krivsky's retooling continues as he took team from 73 wins to 80 in first season. And takes it another 8 games this year to 88. Solid offensively across the board with exception of 1b, which will be below league average. Great subs available at OF in Hamilton and Denorfia.

Bullpen should be strength as there are plenty of qualified guys, and the natural sifting process will eliminate any weak ones and replace them with strong ones.

Two great starters, and a cast of potential 3-5 guys (Milton, Lohse, Belisle, Saarlos, Livingston, Ramirez) all of whom could become at least .500 pitchers.

One of the great secrets to the Krivsky success has been his unwillingness to let guys keep going out there and get torched as the prior GM had allowed. So there will be a sorting out process to figure out who stays at first.

[LoganBuck]

75 wins

[CaiGuy]

85

[Cooper]

Below league average at 1st, 2nd, SS, CF, RF.
League average at C and 3rd.
Slightly above League average at LF.

Starters: league average
Bullpen:league average

Defense: slightly above LA.

72 wins (pythag wins).

[MississippiRed]

84 wins. Division winner? I think so, by a game.

[Fil3232]

78 wins

[Razor Shines]

I'll go the highest so far and say 98 wins......you were all counting spring training right?

[OesterPoster]

78 wins.

[DoogMinAmo]

With each day optimism grows, I better nip it in the bud quickly: 85 wins

[paintmered]

A little RZ statistical info so far with 84 predictions.

Most optimistic: 98 wins
Most pessimistic: 69 wins
Average prediction: 81 wins
Median prediction: 82 wins

[Eric_Davis]

88 Wins

[cumberlandreds]

83 Wins

[ThatsAStrike]

I tend to be optimistic when it comes to the Reds in the Spring (which is strange, because I'm generally a pessimistic person), so I'm going with 84 wins. It just feels good to me.

[SunDeck]

79/83

[RedsNeck]

88 times we'll here "This one belongs to the Reds" or some form there of when Marty's teeing it up instead of tuning em' up for not winning the other 74. Have mercy.

[IamWallaman]

We beat the streak... but just barely: 82Ws

[jmcclain19]

77 wins

[TeamSelig]

83-86 wins

[Edskin]

86 wins

Why not?

[Matt]

85 wins.

[I(heart)Freel]

I go with 84 and here's my logic (based on number of times we play an opponent and how many I think we SHOULD take from them):



NL CENTRAL WINS
Cubs 18 9
Pirates 16 8
Astros 15 8
Brewers 15 7
Cards 15 7
79 39

INTERLEAGUE
Indians 6 3
Angels 3 2
A's 3 1
Mariners 3 1
Rangers 3 2
18 9

NL EAST/WEST
Diamondbacks 6 4
Phillies 6 3
Braves 7 4
Dodgers 6 3
Giants 7 4
Marlins 7 4
Mets 7 3
Nationals 7 4
Padres 6 3
Rockies 6 4
65 36

TOTAL 162 84

[Red in Chicago]

79 wins...

[RedFanAlways1966]

74 wins

I hope I am deemed wildly pessimistic!

[ochoa30]

87 wins

[4256 Hits]

71-91

[Jpup]

87

[It8ifyifitsgrif]

84 wins
Central Champs
10+ above .500 record against division

[Ron Madden]

If everything goes just right 89 wins if not could be 72 wins.

While trying to block Narron and the 12 man pitching staff outta my head...... I'll get all giddy and say 84 wins in 2007. ;)

After listening to Narron on 3/29 pre game show I'm not so giddy.

The lose of Deno and the type of players/pitchers that Jerry values has brought my optimism crashing down like a ton of bricks.

I change my prediction to 75 wins in 2007. God I hope I'm wrong!

Since the season has yet to start am I allowed to do this?

[gonelong]

Since the season has yet to start am I allowed to do this?

Sure, go ahead. It'd be nice if you'd go back an update your original post with your "final" prediction so that when I recap the average I don't mistakingly include more than one prediction per person.

GL

[redsrule2500]

My Prediction:

2007 Reds: 90-72

[thatcoolguy_22]

85-76. We will not have to play our final regular season game because we will have already clinched. :)

[BoydsOfSummer]

81 wins


12 vs. the cubs:D

[OldRightHander]

86 wins. Here's hoping they can improve on last year, but in this division, a few other teams might end up doing the same. It could be an interesting summer.

[Aronchis]

75-87

[Boss-Hog]

76-86

[creek14]

91

[crash54]

84 wins

[Slider]

85-76

[indyred]

83-79

[biggestREDSfan]

90 WINS!!! Plus 2 20 game winners in Harang & Arroyo!

[mound_patrol]

86 wins

[David Cubbedge]

84 wins

[LawFive]

77

[WVRedsFan]

79 wins.

I actually think 86, but every year I get optimistic and predict a big year. I've got to change that luck!

[Mario-Rijo]

Last years final standings:

Central W L PCT GB
St. Louis 83 78 .516 -
Houston 82 80 .506 1.5
Cincinnati 80 82 .494 3.5
Milwaukee 75 87 .463 8.5
Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 16.5
Chicago 66 96 .407 17.5


Trend in the division: More offense, Less pitching

Key addition's per team: (Most Impact adds in Red)

St. Louis - Adam Kennedy/Kip Wells

Houston - Carlos Lee/Mark Loretta/Jason Jennings/Woody Williams

Cincinnati - Alex Gonzales/Jeff Conine/Josh Hamilton/Kirk Sarloos/Mike Stanton

Milwaukee - Tony Graffinino/Craig Counsell/Johnny Estrada/Jeff Suppan/Claudio Vargas/Greg Aquino/Elmer Dessens

Pittsburgh - Adam Laroche/Tony Armas Jr.

Chicago - Alfonso Soriano/Cliff Floyd/Mark Derosa/Daryle Ward/Ted Lilly/Jason Marquis/Neal Cotts


Key Defections:

St. Louis - Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Ron Belliard
Houston - Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, Aubrey Huff
Cincinnati - Rich Aurilia
Milwaukee - Jeff Cirillo, Brady Clark, Doug Davis
Pittsburgh - Joe Randa, Mike Gonzales
Chicago - Juan Pierre


Key Injury returnee's: (These are just possible returnees)

St. Louis - Mark Mulder
Houston - Morgan Ensberg
Cincinnati - Ken Griffey Jr
Milwaukee - Ben Sheets, Corey Koskie
Pittsburgh - NA
Chicago - Derek Lee, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood


What's it all mean:

St. Louis: Worse (Rotation and/or Pen)
Houston: Worse (Rotation and defense doesn't make up for offense adds)
Cincinnati: Same to better (Better def., better bench may make up for poss small decline in pitching overall)
Milwaukee: Much Better (Better Staff and Pen, Same Off, similiar to better D)
Pittsburgh: Slightly better (1 yr of maturity for pitch, better off, sim def)
Chicago: Much better but 20-25 games better no (better off, worse def. same to worse pitching)


2007 Standings: (Injuries not withstanding)

Milwaukee - 88 wins
Cincinnati - 86 wins
St. Louis - 81 Wins
Chicago - 80 wins
Pittsburgh - 76 Wins
Houston - 72 wins

[Rex Argos]

I think it's going to be tightly bunched again this season. Reds get 85 wins, and it might be enough to win. The only team that won't be in it is Pittsburgh. Everyone else stays in it until Sept.

[Chip R]

81 wins 81 losses

[VR]

91

Dunn, MVP
Harang Cy Candidate
Ross big year
Griff traded

[BuckeyeRedleg]

74-88

[Trace's Daddy]

89-73 for me

[Crosley68]

88-74

[George Anderson]

I'll go the highest so far and say 98 wins......you were all counting spring training right?


Well having watched "The "Price is Right" for years, I am going to top ya by one.

I will go for 99 wins.....Your old coach is sorry about doin that to ya Ryan!! ;)

Yea 99 wins sounds crazy, but no one will remember my prediction 5 months from now and if the Reds do by some miracle have 99 wins, I will look like a freaking genius!!!

[WrongVerb]

72-90 this season

One of the better predictors of how the season will go is the final 10-ish games of spring training (I used the final 12), when rotations are being set and everyday lineups are being used more often and for longer periods. Reds went 5-7 in that period. Extrapolated over a full season that means 68 or so wins. I think the Reds are a tad better than that so I'm saying 72 wins this year.

[shocker fan]

86 wins

[howyoufreelin]

84 wins

[sonny]

Egads!

79 wins

ignore my signature

[Reds Nd2]

77 wins.
And that's being optimistic.

[T7-niner]

83-79

Good for Narron's first winning season as a manager and a 3 year contract extension. :evil: