ARod on pace for...

[RedsManRick]

159 strikeouts. Boy he sucks....

Oh yeah, he's also on pace for 106 HR and 274 RBI, but who cares, dude needs to start putting the ball in play a bit more. :mooner:

:deadhorse

[paintmered]

I hope he hits 80 HR and strikes out 250 times this year, just to make a point.

[RichRed]

I hope he hits 80 HR and strikes out 250 times this year, just to make a point.

...The point being, of course, that he's a rally killer either way, the bum. :evil:

[Johnny Footstool]

Dunn on pace for 200 K.

Lazy.

[Pinch Hits]

Ross on pace to hit under a buck.

[rotnoid]

Ross on pace to hit under a buck.

Larue's on pace to be replaced by a Buck. :)

http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a77/dsanford/Spring%20Training%202006/Buck5.jpg

[texasdave]

159 strikeouts. Boy he sucks....

Oh yeah, he's also on pace for 106 HR and 274 RBI, but who cares, dude needs to start putting the ball in play a bit more. :mooner:

:deadhorse

Let me see if I have this straight. If someone else makes a point that you don't agree using a limited number of at-bats you scream 'sample size'. But if you want to make a point you can use a limited number of at-bats and extrapolate out. Cool. Since you have taken sample size off the table how about these numbers.

In Adam Dunn's first 9 games he struck out 8 times in 39 PA. That is roughly 21% of the time. His OPS in these games was 1.171.
In Adam Dunn's last 6 games he struck out 12 times in 27 PA. This is roughly
44% of the time. His OPS in these games was .604.

Maybe making more contact isn't such a bad thing after all.

[jojo]

Let me see if I have this straight. If someone else makes a point that you don't agree using a limited number of at-bats you scream 'sample size'. But if you want to make a point you can use a limited number of at-bats and extrapolate out. Cool. Since you have taken sample size off the table how about these numbers.

In Adam Dunn's first 9 games he struck out 8 times in 39 PA. That is roughly 21% of the time. His OPS in these games was 1.171.
In Adam Dunn's last 6 games he struck out 12 times in 27 PA. This is roughly
44% of the time. His OPS in these games was .604.

Maybe making more contact isn't such a bad thing after all.

I think he used the small sample size to make his point...

A brilliantly clever combination of literary device and smilie that would've no doubt made Shakespear wish he'd been a blooger... :cool:

[RedsManRick]

I was actually making 2 points. Let me do so explicitly so there's no confusion:

1.) Hitters can still strike out a lot while being incredibly productive
2.) Small sample sizes early in the season make projections ridiculous.

Regarding Dunn, I don't think anybody on this board would complain if he struck out less and continued to do everything else at the same rate. We just don't want to see him trade 30 strikeouts and 30 walks for 5 weak hits and 55 outs on balls in play. Strikeouts come from a plate approach in which the player is focusing on getting a pitch he can drive with authority. It usually involves seeing more pitches and getting deeper in to counts. Dunn takes the approach to the extreme, perhaps, and couple with only mediocre contact ability, strikes out a fair bit. But the strikeouts are part of an entire approach and changes to that approach will likely affect more than strikeout totals. To date, his altered approach, being a bit more aggressive on the first pitch he can handle, has had good effect.

[EddieMilner]

Strikeouts come from a plate approach in which the player is focusing on getting a pitch he can drive with authority.

David Ross will be happy to hear that. Sometimes strikeouts come from not being able to hit the ball.

[RedsManRick]

David Ross will be happy to hear that. Sometimes strikeouts come from not being able to hit the ball.

Wow. And homers come from hitting the ball. Therefore, since Juan Pierre rarely strikes out, he should hit lots of homers. Let's all be snarky and use overly simplistic critiques!

[EddieMilner]

Wow. And homers come from hitting the ball. Therefore, since Juan Pierre rarely strikes out, he should hit lots of homers. Let's all be snarky and use overly simplistic critiques!

I was actually pointing out your over generalization.

[RedsManRick]

I was actually pointing out your over generalization.

Feel free to read the quite lengthy posts that at least a dozen of us have posted on the subject over the past few years. Given the context, I figured there wasn't a necessity to go in to every single detail about the concept to which I was referring. Next time I'll be sure to give the complete explication for you.

[Redsland]

...The point being, of course, that he's a rally killer either way, the bum. :evil:
The Creeper revisted his "rally killer" philosophy last night.

Luke Scott went deep, Welsh said, "Sometimes a solo home run can be a rally killer," and then, oh by the way, the Astros scored the most runs and won the game.

[membengal]

Are you trying to tell me that Luke Scott's HR counted toward their overall run total that helped them win the game???

[Redsland]

Are you trying to tell me that Luke Scott's HR counted toward their overall run total that helped them win the game???
He killed 'em to victory, he did.

[membengal]

He killed 'em to victory, he did.

The rat bastard. Next you will tell me the sun rises in the east...

[texasdave]

The rat bastard. Next you will tell me the sun rises in the east...

...and sets on the Reds' bullpen. :)

[Johnny Footstool]

The Creeper revisted his "rally killer" philosophy last night.

Luke Scott went deep, Welsh said, "Sometimes a solo home run can be a rally killer," and then, oh by the way, the Astros scored the most runs and won the game.

Someone should put an electrode in his brain that fires whenever he utters that ridiculous fallacy.

[Chip R]

Someone should put an electrode in his brain that fires whenever.


Fixed that for you. ;)

[RichRed]

He killed 'em to victory, he did.

I think the first time I heard of an announcer referring to a home run as a rally killer was on this board. I thought for sure it was a joke. As in, "Ha-ha, that home run sure killed that rally - good one!" But I have since heard or read that several announcers have said the same thing, and without a hint of irony.

Honestly, I'm not sure how my head hasn't exploded from trying to wrap itself around the idea of scoring runs killing a rally.

[Degenerate39]

How many homers is Josh Hamilton on pace to hit?

[Raisor]

I hope he hits 80 HR and strikes out 250 times this year, just to make a point.

Everyone wants to drink my koolaid.

:devil:

Players/teams striking out a ton while putting up great overall numbers gives me warm fuzzies.

[membengal]

Five in 30 at-bats. If he were to get to 600 at-bats, on pace for 100.

[BRM]

Players/teams striking out a ton while putting up great overall numbers gives me warm fuzzies.

You must have been a big fan of the 2004 World Champion Red Sox.

[mth123]

I was actually making 2 points. Let me do so explicitly so there's no confusion:

1.) Hitters can still strike out a lot while being incredibly productive
2.) Small sample sizes early in the season make projections ridiculous.

Regarding Dunn, I don't think anybody on this board would complain if he struck out less and continued to do everything else at the same rate. We just don't want to see him trade 30 strikeouts and 30 walks for 5 weak hits and 55 outs on balls in play. Strikeouts come from a plate approach in which the player is focusing on getting a pitch he can drive with authority. It usually involves seeing more pitches and getting deeper in to counts. Dunn takes the approach to the extreme, perhaps, and couple with only mediocre contact ability, strikes out a fair bit. But the strikeouts are part of an entire approach and changes to that approach will likely affect more than strikeout totals. To date, his altered approach, being a bit more aggressive on the first pitch he can handle, has had good effect.

This spells it out pretty well for those that can't follow the logic. Good post.

Everybody hates strike outs. Its just that the cure might kill the patient.

[mth123]

2 More HR for A-Rod Tonight.

[rotnoid]

2 More HR for A-Rod Tonight.

12 in 15 games. Amazing. If he keeps this up, he's going to play himself into an even bigger contract next year. And he says he's not opting out... please.

[jojo]

12 in 15 games. Amazing. If he keeps this up, he's going to play himself into an even bigger contract next year. And he says he's not opting out... please.

why would any player opt out of New York? I mean you get to play on ESPN everynight....



:bang:

[jmac]

I will admit during the off-season I sorta hoped the reds would work something out with yanks where they paid a bug hunk and we would have A-rod.
how about this for a "heart of the order":

Dunn
A-rod
Hamilton
Jr
EE

I would say that would get us last night's attendance on a nightly basis !

[Degenerate39]

why would any player opt out of New York? I mean you get to play on ESPN everynight....



:bang:

The Fans

[Jaycint]

I totally agree that there really is no correlation between striking out and being a productive offensive player. But I'm just sayin...

the other night with a runner at third and one out I wish Dunn would have hit a weak grounder to first base instead of striking out. Just sayin...

So situationally there are probably a few spots where contact would be nice, just like there are some where it wouldn't (like grounding into a Casey). All in all, I'll take the Dunn we have any day of the week.

[Eric_Davis]

I totally agree that there really is no correlation between striking out and being a productive offensive player. But I'm just sayin...

the other night with a runner at third and one out I wish Dunn would have hit a weak grounder to first base instead of striking out. Just sayin...

So situationally there are probably a few spots where contact would be nice, just like there are some where it wouldn't (like grounding into a Casey). All in all, I'll take the Dunn we have any day of the week.

There's a 100% correlation. If you strike out less, you're more likely to have a higher batting average, and thus be a more productive offensive player.

Players that hit .310, .320, .330 don't strike out 180 times in a season.

[Highlifeman21]

There's a 100% correlation. If you strike out less, you're more likely to have a higher batting average, and thus be a more productive offensive player.

Players that hit .310, .320, .330 don't strike out 180 times in a season.

Ryan Howard hit .313 last season.

He also struck out 181 times.

[westofyou]

Players that hit .310, .320, .330 don't strike out 180 times in a season.But players who strike out much more then the league average can hit over .310, and have for years.


SEASON
AVERAGE >= .310
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

STRIKEOUTS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AVG RC/G
1 Ryan Howard 2006 82 181 99 .313 5.54
2 Jimmie Foxx 1936 76 119 43 .338 4.92
3 Sammy Sosa 2000 64 168 104 .320 4.03
4 Mo Vaughn 1997 64 154 90 .315 3.85
5 Dick Allen 1966 63 136 73 .317 4.82
6 Jimmie Foxx 1935 61 99 38 .346 6.51
7 Babe Ruth 1923 60 93 33 .393 12.07
8 Cito Gaston 1970 59 142 83 .318 2.23
9 Hack Wilson 1928 58 94 36 .313 3.10
10 Jim Thome 1996 57 141 84 .311 5.03
11 Mickey Mantle 1952 56 111 55 .311 3.91
12 Jimmie Foxx 1932 56 96 40 .364 8.90
13 Babe Ruth 1927 55 89 34 .356 9.52
14 Mike Easler 1984 54 134 80 .313 2.96
15 Babe Ruth 1922 53 80 27 .315 5.69
16 Jimmie Foxx 1933 53 93 40 .356 7.89
17 Hank Greenberg 1939 52 95 43 .312 4.56
18 Jim Edmonds 2002 52 134 82 .311 3.95
19 Hank Greenberg 1937 52 101 49 .337 5.80
20 Sammy Sosa 2001 52 153 101 .328 7.31
21 Joe Gordon 1942 51 95 44 .322 2.66
22 Dick Allen 1964 51 138 87 .318 3.62
23 Babe Ruth 1920 51 80 29 .376 13.33
24 Babe Ruth 1924 50 81 31 .378 10.16
25 Babe Ruth 1928 50 87 37 .323 7.55
26 Mo Vaughn 1996 50 154 104 .326 3.75
27 Tony Perez 1970 49 134 85 .317 3.85
28 Mickey Mantle 1961 49 112 63 .317 7.98
29 Manny Ramirez 2000 48 117 69 .351 7.32
30 Lou Gehrig 1927 48 84 36 .373 8.76
31 Danny Tartabull 1991 48 121 73 .316 4.37
32 Babe Ruth 1921 47 81 34 .378 12.30
33 Bob Meusel 1921 47 88 41 .318 1.67
34 Hank Greenberg 1935 46 91 45 .328 4.53
35 Tom Brown 1891 46 96 50 .321 4.55
36 Hank Greenberg 1938 46 92 46 .315 5.62
37 Bobby Abreu 1998 46 133 87 .312 2.58
38 Babe Ruth 1926 46 76 30 .372 10.33
39 Hank Greenberg 1934 45 93 48 .339 3.66
40 Manny Ramirez 1999 45 131 86 .333 5.82
41 Hack Wilson 1929 45 83 38 .345 3.97
42 Mo Vaughn 1998 45 144 99 .337 3.94
43 Jim Rice 1978 44 126 82 .315 3.69
44 Tony Perez 1973 42 117 75 .314 3.27
45 Alex Rodriguez 2005 42 139 97 .321 5.33
46 Dolph Camilli 1937 42 82 40 .339 6.41
47 Mickey Mantle 1956 42 99 57 .353 9.11
48 Wally Berger 1933 42 77 35 .313 3.78
49 Dolph Camilli 1936 42 84 42 .315 5.55
50 Mark McGwire 1996 42 112 70 .312 7.43

[rotnoid]

Oh sure, if you wanna bring up guys like Mantle, Ruth, and Foxx. ;)

[Jaycint]

There's a 100% correlation. If you strike out less, you're more likely to have a higher batting average, and thus be a more productive offensive player.

Players that hit .310, .320, .330 don't strike out 180 times in a season.

If you want to build an argument based around batting average go for it but don't tell me that striking out means you aren't being productive.

2005 Reds K's: 1303 (most in baseball)

2005 Reds runs scored: 820 (most in NL, 4th most in all of MLB)

I'll take a guy like Dunn's productivity any day of the week over a slap hitting .320 batting average guy who is somehow more palatable because he grounds out to SS instead of striking out.

[jojo]

There's a 100% correlation. If you strike out less, you're more likely to have a higher batting average, and thus be a more productive offensive player.

Players that hit .310, .320, .330 don't strike out 180 times in a season.

This statement just sounds sooooooooooo intuitive it's gotta be true....

In a vacuum perhaps it is true. In the real world however it's been definitively proven false.

There are valid sabermetric arguments (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1248453&postcount=354) that can be made for why Dunn may be overrated. However it's not fair to criticize him because real life Dunn is deficient relative to an impossible fantasy of him we might have in our heads.

At some point facts have to trump an idea no matter how great it may sound or credibility suffers....

[Redhook]

I will admit during the off-season I sorta hoped the reds would work something out with yanks where they paid a bug hunk and we would have A-rod.
how about this for a "heart of the order":

Dunn
A-rod
Hamilton
Jr
EE

I would say that would get us last night's attendance on a nightly basis !

But where would AGon play? :p:

[Chip R]

Ryan Howard hit .313 last season.

He also struck out 181 times.


But he didn't hit .310 .320 or .330. And he struck out 181 times, not 180. ;)

[Spring~Fields]

159 strikeouts. Boy he sucks....

Oh yeah, he's also on pace for 106 HR and 274 RBI, but who cares, dude needs to start putting the ball in play a bit more. :mooner:

:deadhorse

What about his walks, singles, doubles and runs scored? What will his RISP be? Can he hit left handers? Would the Yankees take Dunn, Griffey and Milton in a trade for him?

[Raisor]

There's a 100% correlation. If you strike out less, you're more likely to have a higher batting average, and thus be a more productive offensive player.

Players that hit .310, .320, .330 don't strike out 180 times in a season.

Is this the Chewbacca defense?

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Just hit #13

[Razor Shines]

There are way too many guys who have taken on the nickname of "The Natural" this season.
Obviously Hamilton has.

ESPN has been calling A-Rod "The Natural"

Apparently Tampa Bay calls Rocco Baldieli "Roy Hobbs".

Excuse me Roy Hobbs was left handed. I'll have no more of this.

[Degenerate39]

Just hit #13

I wish I would have taken A.Rod instead of Ortiz in the first round of the fantasy draft now.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Another 9th inning HR, second of the game. #14

[blumj]

#14

[Gainesville Red]

My theory is he's passed on the steroids/HGH, and gone straight to robot parts. Maybe computer scope eye implants or something.

Guys absolutley on fire.

[sonny]

My theory is he's passed on the steroids/HGH, and gone straight to robot parts. Maybe computer scope eye implants or something.

.

No, none of that.....

...cotton balls. Yes, he's taken cotton balls, wadded them up and placed one (1) in each ear. He hasn't read his articles or listened to his sports radio. good for him.

[paintmered]

You must have been a big fan of the 2004 World Champion Red Sox.

He was also a fan of the Big Red Machine.