Is it worry time for Aaron Harang?

[TC81190]

After his outing last night, Harang, although 4-1, owns a 4.78 ERA with a nice 44 Ks in 42 IP but also a not so good 49 hits. He struggled through spring training, had some nice starts to open the season, but he's now having troubles again. Is it time to worry about Aaron Harang?

[Falls City Beer]

After his outing last night, Harang, although 4-1, owns a 4.78 ERA with a nice 44 Ks in 42 IP but also a not so good 49 hits. He struggled through spring training, had some nice starts to open the season, but he's now having troubles again. Is it time to worry about Aaron Harang?

Worry?

No. But the guy's going to give up long distance basehits. That's his game. As long as his hits normalize a bit he should be alright. But don't lose sight that the guy's a #2 pitcher. Don't expect ace stuff from the guy because that's not what he is.

[PuffyPig]

Nothing to worry about for harang. The 3 thinks he can control, K rate, W rate and HR rate are all better than his career norms.

His BABIP is .370. Once that normalizes, he'll be fine. And it should normalize simply by luck of the draw.

His DIPS ERA is best in the NL, at 2.70.

By the way, Arroyo's DIPS ERA is #2, and Lohse's is #4.

It shows how good Harang has actually pitched that he can still win with a BABIP of .370 against him.

[Doro]

I think Harang is sometimes too consistant. All his stuff is low and the corners (which is definately what you teach) however I think he needs to be more aggressive.... put a few under someone's chin. Hes a big guy but his smooth delivery and lack of changing the batter's eye level isnt too intimidating.

[redsupport]

no bullpen equals more pitches for starter equals more fatigue, its all the mephitic, noxious fumes from the bullpen

[AmarilloRed]

Lets wait and see if he stabilizes the next 2 months.

[kaldaniels]

Worry?

No. But the guy's going to give up long distance basehits. That's his game. As long as his hits normalize a bit he should be alright. But don't lose sight that the guy's a #2 pitcher. Don't expect ace stuff from the guy because that's not what he is.

Interesting you say he's not a #1. What qualifies one as a #1 objectively in your opinion. That said, how many #1's do you feel are in the majors right now.

[Eric_Davis]

His opposing OPS is .748 ...... Last year it was .742 ..... This is a concern as it shouldn't be this high this early as OPS' go up as the temperatures increase. I was hoping he'd improve this year over last year. But, as FallsCity said, "But the guy's going to give up long distance basehits. That's his game. As long as his hits normalize a bit he should be alright. But don't lose sight that the guy's a #2 pitcher. Don't expect ace stuff from the guy because that's not what he is."

[bucksfan2]

no bullpen equals more pitches for starter equals more fatigue, its all the mephitic, noxious fumes from the bullpen

This is going to cause some major problems for the rotation this year. Look at Arroyo and his struggles yesterday.

[storrs19]

I also have no problem with Harrang. He will settle into his usual role and should post 15 to 18 wins this season. I will take that every year. Arroyo would have 4 or 5 wins if it were not for the horrendus bullpen.

Now I know the BP did alright yesterday, but as I expected they did walk the first batter they faced and forced in a run. Seems that the first batter reaches in almost every BP appearance.

It is sad that a pitcher pushes himself beyond his limits because he knows the BP will lose it for him unless he has a 10 run lead. That is what worries me. Starters are going to have bad outings and go out after 5 (or even 4) innings once in a while, you expect that.

[PuffyPig]

His opposing OPS is .748 ...... Last year it was .742 ..... This is a concern as it shouldn't be this high this early as OPS' go up as the temperatures increase. I was hoping he'd improve this year over last year. But, as FallsCity said, "But the guy's going to give up long distance basehits. That's his game. As long as his hits normalize a bit he should be alright. But don't lose sight that the guy's a #2 pitcher. Don't expect ace stuff from the guy because that's not what he is."

His OPS last April was much higher than his yearly figure. He go off to a slow start then to, but picked it up as the weather got warmer.

He's got the best DIPS ERa in the league. There's nothing to worry about.

[Red Leader]

Harang looks good to me. His fastball has late life on it and has really got on some hitters. His breaking pitches are moving well and he's locating pretty well, too. There have been a couple AB's where I thought he threw the wrong pitch in the wrong count. He had the batter setup, but the batter knew he was setup as well and looked for the same pitch Harang had him setup for. The result - a hard basehit or extra base hit. I think Harang will catch on that he needs to mix it up a little more and then his BABIP will get better and he'll "normalize" a little bit more towards last year's ERA.

[UK Reds Fan]

But all of these3 numbers have been accumalted against the Rockies and Pirates of the world in his starts. I worry that very pedestrian lineups are banging him around. No reason to get overly worried but if Harang regresses to a #3 or worse starter that surely puts the Reds back a bit as we've depended alot on our top 2 horses for this year and next.

[registerthis]

Interesting you say he's not a #1. What qualifies one as a #1 objectively in your opinion. That said, how many #1's do you feel are in the majors right now.

Last season, he undoubtedly had #1 "stuff". I think what FCB is trying to say is that expecting Harang to recreate his 2006 season every year may be an overreach. Harang is good, but he might not be *that* good.

[kaldaniels]

Last season, he undoubtedly had #1 "stuff". I think what FCB is trying to say is that expecting Harang to recreate his 2006 season every year may be an overreach. Harang is good, but he might not be *that* good.

I was actually really just trying to get a read on FCB's view of #1s....everyone on this board will have a different answer and I was just wondering what his view was.

[Falls City Beer]

I was actually really just trying to get a read on FCB's view of #1s....everyone on this board will have a different answer and I was just wondering what his view was.

It's pretty simple: an ace surrenders a whole lot fewer EXBHs/homers than Aaron does.

It's what keeps Arroyo from ace-level, too.

Still, both are about as close to an ace--without being an ace--as you're going to get. Think Vazquez or Livan Hernandez. Horses, not aces.

[coachw513]

Nothing to worry about for harang. The 3 thinks he can control, K rate, W rate and HR rate are all better than his career norms.

His BABIP is .370. Once that normalizes, he'll be fine. And it should normalize simply by luck of the draw.

His DIPS ERA is best in the NL, at 2.70.

By the way, Arroyo's DIPS ERA is #2, and Lohse's is #4.

It shows how good Harang has actually pitched that he can still win with a BABIP of .370 against him.

(Still learning some advanced stat theory)...

What accounts for Harangs DIPS ERA being so low and his "real" ERA being 2 runs per game higher??...

What specifically about DIPS ERA is so "telling", if that makes sense??

Finally, what is the statistical norm for BABIP, or should I say the "median" BABIP???...

Thanks...I'm trying to go from Reds Rootin' I to Reds Rootin' II and I think this stuff might be on the final exam :D

[CaiGuy]

(Still learning some advanced stat theory)...

What accounts for Harangs DIPS ERA being so low and his "real" ERA being 2 runs per game higher??...

What specifically about DIPS ERA is so "telling", if that makes sense??

Finally, what is the statistical norm for BABIP, or should I say the "median" BABIP???...

Thanks...I'm trying to go from Reds Rootin' I to Reds Rootin' II and I think this stuff might be on the final exam :D
His peripheral stats are good.

Also, I think an average BABIP is around .280.

[flyer85]

Harang is way down the list of things to worry about. But I guess you can if you would like.

[kaldaniels]

It's pretty simple: an ace surrenders a whole lot fewer EXBHs/homers than Aaron does.

It's what keeps Arroyo from ace-level, too.

Still, both are about as close to an ace--without being an ace--as you're going to get. Think Vazquez or Livan Hernandez. Horses, not aces.

Excellent take at this point.

[RedsManRick]

(Still learning some advanced stat theory)...

What accounts for Harangs DIPS ERA being so low and his "real" ERA being 2 runs per game higher??...

What specifically about DIPS ERA is so "telling", if that makes sense??

Finally, what is the statistical norm for BABIP, or should I say the "median" BABIP???...

Thanks...I'm trying to go from Reds Rootin' I to Reds Rootin' II and I think this stuff might be on the final exam :D

The short answer is that the hits Harang is giving up are adding up to more runs than they "should" in the long run. He's striking guys out and not allowing a lot of extra base hits. Over time, if Harang keeps pitching the exact same way, we would expect him to allow fewer runs. Plus his BABIP suggests that hitters are getting lucky -- get hits on balls put in to play more frequently than they should.

That said, he's not really an "ace". He's a solid #2. But guys who can reliably give 200+ IP with an ERA under 4.00 don't grow on trees. I'm not really worried at all. His stuff is there. His command is there. He's just been hit a bit.